US CPI remains at the bottom of the last 50 year’s range (ignoring, for now, the endless debate about whether CPI data is accurate or not), and the mild increase we’ve seen is mainly due to rebounds from low commodity prices and the impact of supply chain bottlenecks, which should not be considered sustainable. Base effects will start kicking in next month, leading to higher headline inflation numbers, only to wear off throughout the year as base effects fade off. Commodity producers can also adjust supply to higher commodities prices (justified by the comeback of demand). Both dynamics tether inflation in the medium ... (full story)