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The US GDP Outlook: Now and Near Future
The October WSJ forecast survey is out. The mean forecast is for no downturn (no 2-quarter negative growth). It’s also a lot higher than three months ago. First, here’s the forecast compared to three months ago, in levels. chart Figure 1: GDP as of 2023Q1 3rd release (bold green), WSJ July mean forecast (light green), GDP as of 2023Q2 3rd release/comprehensive revision (bold black), WSJ October man forecast (sky blue), all in logs, 2022Q4=0. Source: BEA via FRED, ALFRED, WSJ (various), and author’s calculations. The upshift in levels is partly due to GDP higher than forecasted for Q2. But Q3 and Q4 GDP growth ... (full story)