Communication following the ECB’s September meeting had already given clear indications that the October meeting would be an intermediate one, waiting for new information from the Bank Lending Survey, GDP growth in the third quarter and a new round of staff projections – all of which will only be available at the December meeting and not yet next week. Even if they are off recent peaks again, surging bond yields have strengthened the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy tightening so far and recent events in Israel have increased geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. We expect the ECB to keep rates on hold ... (full story)