Long bond yields have hit new highs and the EUR/USD has tanked. Yet, the big picture regarding the economic and inflation outlook remains roughly unmoved. We keep our central bank forecasts unchanged. Long yields have hit new cyclical highs and the 20-year US Treasury yield already tops 5%. While we certainly see arguments in favour of higher risk premiums in longer yields, we do not think the cyclical developments support a quick return of the risk premiums. Even though we find the notion of higher for longer credible, we do not think longer yields will rise materially from current levels without signs of improving ... (full story)