In this thread, the focus is on high impact calendar events related to Bitcoin. Participation is welcomed!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US Employment Data - August Preview
June 3rd
May 6th
April 1st
March 4th
Feb 4th
Jan 7th
Summary
Forecasts
- NFP: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are in a wide range between 50K and 325K. Average forecast is ~237K while the median is 250K. It should be noted that the more recent forecasts have been closer to the 300K area.
- Unemployment rate: Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are mostly in agreement at 3.6% with a few outliers at 3.5% and 3.7%.
Recent Impacts (btc/usd)
July 8th
June 3rd
May 6th
April 1st
March 4th
Feb 4th
Jan 7th
Summary
Caution is advised. NFP hasn't been a big market mover in the crypto space. It likely will have more impact in the near future as labor market data starts to show the impact from the aggressive rate hikes. I don't think we're there yet. I'll be on the sidelines.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
Been thinking about this, however, from my observations btc doesn't seem to respond allot to regular news. As much as i would love to trade crypto fundamental i can't see any news that makes it move consistently.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US Employment Data - August Follow up
Following a significant surprise to the upside in NFP, along with a downtick in the unemployment rate, bitcoin sold off as the US dollar rallied. Clearly, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes haven't hit the labor market yet but it should continue to become more in focus in the coming months. I'd expect US payroll data to keep impacting bitcoin and the broader market.
Following a significant surprise to the upside in NFP, along with a downtick in the unemployment rate, bitcoin sold off as the US dollar rallied. Clearly, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes haven't hit the labor market yet but it should continue to become more in focus in the coming months. I'd expect US payroll data to keep impacting bitcoin and the broader market.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US CPI - August Preview 
June
May
April
March
February
Janurary
Summary:
With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation, the market is finally expecting inflation data to show some signs of slowing. There's risk on both sides. On higher than expected data, the US dollar should rally while bitcoin sells off on the prospects of continued hawkish Fed. Any signs of a slow down in inflation data (lower than exptected) could trigger the market to start pricing a less aggressive Fed and we might see a rally in bitcoin while the US dollar sells off.
As recent history suggests, we should expect volatility on the release. I'm looking for a significant deviation from forecasts, that's where we could see a move one way or another which could give us ample opportunity for some profits on a big move. As shown by recent history, higher than expected data should trigger a move lower in bitcoin, while anything in-line or lower than expected should propel bitcoin higher.
As always, caution is advised.
Forecasts
- CPI m/m is expected to come in at 0.2%. The range of estimates is mostly between 0.1%-0.3%.
- Core CPI m/m forecasts are mostly between 0.5%-0.6%, with slightly more estimates favoring 0.5%.
- The annual headline number should fall between 8.6%-8.8%. Keep an eye out for a significant deviation from these forecasts.
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
July
June
May
April
March
February
Janurary
Summary:
With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation, the market is finally expecting inflation data to show some signs of slowing. There's risk on both sides. On higher than expected data, the US dollar should rally while bitcoin sells off on the prospects of continued hawkish Fed. Any signs of a slow down in inflation data (lower than exptected) could trigger the market to start pricing a less aggressive Fed and we might see a rally in bitcoin while the US dollar sells off.
As recent history suggests, we should expect volatility on the release. I'm looking for a significant deviation from forecasts, that's where we could see a move one way or another which could give us ample opportunity for some profits on a big move. As shown by recent history, higher than expected data should trigger a move lower in bitcoin, while anything in-line or lower than expected should propel bitcoin higher.
As always, caution is advised.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US CPI data - August Follow up
US inflation data continues to be one of the biggest market movers in the crypto space. This morning the BLS reported a pretty significant miss, especially considering we've seen upside surprises for most of this year. Both the headline and core number missed by two percentage points. The annualized overall inflation was reported at 8.5%, outside of the range (8.6%-8.8%) discussed in the preview. As anticipated in the case of lower than expected data, Bitcoin rallied as the US dollar sold off.
US inflation data continues to be one of the biggest market movers in the crypto space. This morning the BLS reported a pretty significant miss, especially considering we've seen upside surprises for most of this year. Both the headline and core number missed by two percentage points. The annualized overall inflation was reported at 8.5%, outside of the range (8.6%-8.8%) discussed in the preview. As anticipated in the case of lower than expected data, Bitcoin rallied as the US dollar sold off.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US PPI data - Trading opportunity?
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
Summary
Minimal volatility can be expected but should be relatively muted outside of any large surprises. While the possibility exists that a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger moves, the likelihood is very low.
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
Summary
Minimal volatility can be expected but should be relatively muted outside of any large surprises. While the possibility exists that a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger moves, the likelihood is very low.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
US PPI data - August Follow up
After a big miss in both overall and core PPI, there was some volatility after an initial spike, and a bigger than average move for this data. However, lower inflation was mostly priced in as CPI came in lower than expected a day earlier. As stated in the August preview, trading opportunities on this data release will be very limited, at least for now.
After a big miss in both overall and core PPI, there was some volatility after an initial spike, and a bigger than average move for this data. However, lower inflation was mostly priced in as CPI came in lower than expected a day earlier. As stated in the August preview, trading opportunities on this data release will be very limited, at least for now.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
FOMC Meeting Minutes - August Preview
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
July
May
April
February
January
Summary
Recent impacts (btc/usd)
July
May
April
February
January
Summary
The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points the last two consecutive meetings. Since the last meeting in July, the market has been swinging between a 50 and 75 bps hike probabilities for the September meeting. As it stands, the probabilities for a 50 bps hike are a little higher at 59.5% compared to 40.5% for a 75 bps hike.
Since the last rate hike in July, adding to the uncertainty, we’ve seen strong labor market data along with lower-than-expected inflation figures. The biggest question that needs answering is will the Fed opt for smaller incremental 50 bps increases or is the door still open for larger increases? The minutes is unlikely to add much in terms of clarity.
The Fed has been focused on taming inflation with willingness to slow down the labor market. There’s been some rumblings of a soft vs hard landing, but we aren’t there yet. Powell has made it clear that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. We should continue to see data play a significant role leading up to the Sept meeting. As for these minutes, it’s all about whether FOMC members hint at scaling back from 75 bps or if they stay hawkish enough to potentially raise rates by 75 bps for a third consecutive meeting.
Remember this report has to be digested and we’ll likely see some heavy volatility before any clear direction, if any. Watch for any straightforward clues on the size of the next rate hike.
If the market sees a 75bps as a greater possibility, then the US dollar would rally as bitcoin sells off. Conversely, any signal to pivot to 50 bps could trigger a sell off in the US dollar and send bitcoin higher. The more likely scenario is continued uncertainty. The possibility for a whipsaw is high, particularly on the release as market participants attempt to digest the text.
Good luck out there!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
- Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,592 Posts
Surprisingly, CME FedWatch Tool now showing almost an even split betweein 50 and 75 bps as far as what the market is pricing in for the Sept Fed meeting.
The market is as uncertain as it gets about the Fed's next move. Clues in the minutes will be that much more important either way, although many expect the Fed to stay on the fence and rely on the data leading up to the Sept meeting. Before then, we'll have another jobs report and inflation reading.
The market is as uncertain as it gets about the Fed's next move. Clues in the minutes will be that much more important either way, although many expect the Fed to stay on the fence and rely on the data leading up to the Sept meeting. Before then, we'll have another jobs report and inflation reading.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated