VWAP + TPO + PIVOTS

Way back in 2007, I was a lucky trader. Lucky enough to win more than I lost. During this time I was in the process of losing my mini-real estate empire (emphasis on mini) and I stumbled across a thread (on another website) on Trading With Market Statistics by jperl. It is an extensive and comprehensive thread by a man who obviously knew what he was doing. Following his techniques I started to transform from a lucky trader to a more skilled trader.

Circumstances had it that I eventually lost all my real estate, my income, my wife, ... you get the picture. I didn't have the funds to trade and had to take a long hiatus.

The teachings of jperl was always in the back of my mind and I knew that someday I would get back to trading with his techniques.

Fast forward 10 years to 2017. Crypto is going bonkers and I have a little cash. I am buying like crazy - everything. ZRP, BTC, ZRX, ETH, LTC, KIN, EOS, RDD you name it. I was a crypto BULL and was killing it!. My initial investment of approximately $4000 ballooned to just shy of 50k in about 3 months. And then 2018 started :-(

After watching 50k turn into $1500... I started thinking about jperl again (a little late). I spent most of 2018 playing with jperls techniques and making spending money. I started 2019 only trading BTC, EOS, and XRP. Eventually I narrowed it down to only BTC and now I am getting serious again about my trading.

While the basis of my ideas originate from jperls thread. I have taken his core concepts and customized it to fit my trading style. I decided to post here for selfish reason - to help ME commit to my trading plan. Maybe you can find this thread beneficial.

I use the following:

1. VWAP
2. Pivot Points
3. TPO charts (must have POC)
4. Kalman filter
5. Trend Envelopes

The first three are for determining the trend and the last two for entry and confirmation.

If, like today, VWAP and price are below the daily Pivot (10330), I have a short bias and will look for interesting price points to get short. Add in yesterdays POC (point of control) (10560) and I am confirmed to have a short bias. The only way I change that bias is if price trades above the pivot and closes above the virgin POC.

More to come. In the meantime if you are interested in jperls techniques, google: Trading With Market Statistics by jperl

“It’s not whether you get knocked down; it’s whether you get up.”

I'm glad you've gotten yourself up and gotten this far, my friend! I will be following and watching. I wish you courage on your journey to the top!

Price has traded above the new pivot point, but has not yet made it to the virgin POC... My bias has changed to the upside... looking for a good entry point.

Wow Enochben that's a heck of a story. I love reading these trader stories on here... they are heart-wrenching sometimes, but they make me feel at home.

Judging by your returns, it sounds like you found your market in cryptos.

Let's make some millions!!!

some quick background links:

VWAP: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp
TPO & POC: https://www.tradingview.com/wiki/Volume_Profile
Kalman Filter: https://www.bzarg.com/p/how-a-kalman...s-in-pictures/ *** only for TRUE NERDS (like me)

10054 Pivot Point
10088 VWAP
10133 POC
10100 PRICE

What do these numbers tell us?

The market is in equilibrium and should not be traded until it shows us its intended direction.

the market has shown its hand... stuck at a resistant point but the sentiment (for me) is it's time to get long.

target 1: 10550
target 2: 11350

Thanks for sharing your story and starting this thread. Along with you for the ride. I have some reading to do this weekend. Appreciate the the links.

In my humble opinion, the reason traders fail when using a seemingly perfect constructed system is that we are individuals and trading systems don't take into account our individual tolerance for risk. For example, I develop a system that is low risk high reward, but it requires you to enter long at a support level when there is panic and tremendous selling pressure. I might be able to take that trade every time risking 50 ticks and seeking 500. But the next man hesitates and enters 75 ticks later. The market retraces 100 ticks and stops you out while taking me to break even before exploding up to hit my target.

The point is - you have to customize whatever strategy or system you are using to fit your risk profile.

Currently I am long BTC - however my system states that the market has not yet completed the down cycle. I entered based upon market structure - lower low followed by a lower high and then a higher low.... eventually a higher high printed.

Below is a 4hr with just the Kalman filter. If you are risk averse - the Kalman filter will keep you on the right side of the trend.



The color tells you all you need to know. Also the color is not based on the slope, it is based on an algorithm I'm not sure I completely understand.

Happy trading.

Kalman filter link for MT5

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/24684

4- hr Market Structure



A close above 10408 is confirmation of the trend reversing from short to long.

The Kalman filter turning from red to green confirms that its time to enter long.

LL = Lower Low
LH = Lower High
HH = Higher High
HL = Higher Low

For market structure trend change you like to see a LL followed by a LH followed by a HL to finally make a HH

Still patiently waiting for 10408 to fall...

10408 met some pretty strong resistance. We can kinda guess where there is a wall of sellers!

The Kalman filter is amazing at predicting the trend. While it moves like a moving average, the color and trend direction does not. Had I strictly followed my rules and waited for the filter to turn green I would have avoided a few paper cuts.



The second red/blue lines are trend envelopes and I use them to enter. If the Kalman filter turns green on the next 4-hr candle, I would enter at a break of the trend envelope (currently red) just above the pivot at about 10250.

FINALLY! The Kalman filter has turned! It's time to get LONG people!!!!

I'm going balls to the walls at 10350 with a SL @ 10100

Happy trading!

Using the Kalman filter as my guide, it's time to buy dips. Remember the mantra - the trend is your friend (until it ends)!



Aggressive - enter at market or set a limit buy around 10510
Conservative - wait for a break of the red trend envelope - buy stop around 10685

Peace & Prosperity!

Doesn't matter if you went with the aggressive (market) or conservative entry, you should be in the green!

As far as take profit targets -

1st - 11360
2nd - 11840

price is is a range. gonna wait for a solid close back above 10700 to decide if I'm buying this dip.