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The Really Useless Thread

0)

Quoting Replicant
... Leaving the "further gradual increases" in the statement was probably a mistake because after the conference press that came after the release, there was no doubt any more that now FED is strictly data dependent and not any more on autopilot for hikes, whereas this "further gradual increase" still hints hikes on autopilot in the collective unconscious of markets...
Quoting Replicant
... they will probably need to adapt their statement at next FOMC ...
Fixed ! Now it's all written, stamped and official.
And with a shy inflation still struggling to pull up wages, and with slower growth coming, end of cycle is superschecked imo.
1)

Quoting Replicant
{quote}. ... => As importantly I think, in US Equities we are back in BTFD. A very dovish FED with Macro Data overall still holding and decent (although lately it's a mixed bag probably announcing a more important slowdown in the MT) is a super combo for Equities. For ES, I have 2585, 2630 and 2723 as targets...
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... Any dip on any miss/flop in Macro Data should be bought imo in the ST via the super dovish FED that should provide a deep retrace/dead cat bounce...
Final target of the swing on ES cleared @2723. Almost 300 points on this one.
No brainer really imo with the very dovish FED and with macro data still holding and mild inflation.
2) on the EUR/USD

All out when losing the flip on H4 a month ago :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Agree, I have more or less the same level 1.14227. If bears break that level on H4, I will clear all the remaining longs I have for my final swing target 1.1650.
And all in again on the test of the never ending 1.131x :

Quoting Replicant
... For the swing in play : - If your FA analysis tells you, there is a game changer in the cross via FED (first hint on nov 28, second one at last FOMC, final one last friday) and that we are going to reverse the daily downtrend : - then you load at 1.131x which is a clear identified support TA wise on daily (there were multiple occasions to do that) - and, since the reverse of the daily downtrend will come with the break of 1.155x, that will make this 1.155x your first theoretical target. But, pratically, you will TP in between on a soft res...
Map is still the same, 1.131x bottom, 1.142x/3x flip, 1.155x that was extended to 1.1570 last month the top to break up to reverse the downtrend on daily and to unlock 1.165x on the ST and 1.182x max 1.199x for the MT. All above remaining locked FA wise via dovish ECB on rates.
3) on EUR/CHF

Quoting Replicant
On EURCHF (...) It seems we have a nice setup for a swing that could bring us to 1.163x. (...)
Quoting Replicant
Floor hold strong during the flash crash in thin market after the roll. It looks litteraly on a launching platform now . H1 has already reversed up I think ; on H4 bulls need to take 1.131x. Both TF have an intraday floor @ 1.122x imo. Reversal up (of the retrace) on daily will come with the break up of 1.136x. Let's see ! {image}
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Intermediate target cleared at 1.131x. 1.134x/5x strong res and key. Failure to take it will mean more chop. {image}
We have finally reversed up the retrace leg on daily
(on so poor CHF macro and inflation data !!)

Second intermediate target cleared @ 1.141x

Taking last hurdle 1.15 in EUR /CHF will probably come simultaneously with bulls taking 1.1570 in EUR /USD

In any case, ceteris paribus, time decay in favour imo of EUR vs both USD and CHF in 2019 via rates expectations for dec 2019 but more probably march 2020.

EZ needs to clear european parliament elections and brexit noise

But expecting some surprise (up) on inflation /wages front in EZ

All the best

Xīnnián kuàilè (lol my mandarin is awful)
Thailand doesn't need Netflix :

Princess Ubolratana PM candidate of Thai Raksa Chart Party !!! (This party is remote controlled from abroad by former prime ministers Thaksin and Yingluck Shinawatra).

And this, very probably with the consent, behind the scene, of her brother King Vajiralongkorn, recently on the throne and who definitely seems eager to change things in Thailand.

While Prayut will run for the army ............

That is massive as historically army and monarchy + "the rich ones" (=the yellow shirts in the streets) always walk together versus Shinawatra party (=the red shirts in the streets) which is reformist, modernist but demaguogue as well.

Thailand baht is going to falter :
--> it's a red line for the army and the conservatives
--> but the king's sister as all royal family members are loved by Thai people
--> it's a big reshuffle right before upcoming elections and an earthquake for thai society

Chaos possible

Ubolratana has a lot of chances to win knowing a bit thai society (which will mean a policy very close to Shinawatra's one ie. a very loose monetary policy) but Army can short circuit everything at any time (before and after the elections).

Very negative for Thailand baht for ST/MT imo.
Quoting Replicant
... And this, very probably with the consent, behind the scene, of her brother King Vajiralongkorn....
Wrong. King doesn't back her and claimed her move is against constitution as royal family members have to remain neutral politically. But technically she is not any more by law since 1972.

EURUSD is back to the bottom of the range (1.131x) again after losing again the flip (1.142x/3x).
And EURCHF is back to its flip (1.131x) after clearing bull target at 1.141x.
Very gloomy outlook for Italy via the populist clowns.

Losing 1.125x (bulls natural stop) in EURUSD is still direct 1.118x imo. Until then benefit of the doubt should prevail and, in any case, MT wise, it's still accumulation.

Equities stalled after ES cleared 2723.
Quoting Replicant
1) {quote} {quote} Final target of the swing on ES cleared @2723. Almost 300 points on this one. No brainer really imo with the very dovish FED and with macro data still holding and mild inflation.
I rode the Jan btfd train too, there is more track north but I had thought it might play as Q4 earnings wind down...I have been flat since last week, but thi king it's time to sell some calls

Wintering in Taiwan? How is that?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I rode the Jan btfd train too, there is more track north but I had thought it might play as Q4 earnings wind down...I have been flat since last week, but thi king it's time to sell skme calls Wintering in Taiwan? How is that?
Well done. Technically next one is 2791 but I think it will really struggle to go higher from here (and taking the triple top looks almost impossible with DT fiscal stimulus fading away and without china deal news). I will try to short ES above 272x next week for a breath to 263x and 258x.

Taïwan :
Exotic, easy, cheap.
No mass tourism, off the beaten tracks in S-E Asia.
Nice people, mix of chinese and native, heavily influenced by japanese standards. Friendly, approachable, non invasive. Horrible timezone for trading, perfect :-)
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