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Market bottom rotation trading

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  • Post #5,741
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  • Sep 14, 2018 5:28am Sep 14, 2018 5:28am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
And here is checklist one can use for A quality pullback leg play (structure has to pass all checks to fit it):

-clean strong impulsive up trend ahead of structure
-flat positioned demand, buyers keep picking up when price retests the lows (signaling strong buying pressure) or soft rounded demand (no strong dips on lows)
-at least 3 highs / lows in structure (the more the better)
-strong momentum HH bake on last leg

Bellow example that fits A quality play.
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  • Post #5,742
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  • Sep 14, 2018 5:31am Sep 14, 2018 5:31am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Realistically for anyone that trades all FX pairs, there should be only 2 plays per day on M1 a day. On higher TF its usually 0 per day, and 1-2 per week. If trader gets much higher number of plays than that, then checklists for both supply takeouts and pullback legs A quality plays are not followed properly.
In equity markets, usual average is 3 A quality plays a day on M1. Any numbers much higher than that are signaling not following the rules or identifying the plays correctly.

Generally a good rule that confirms if trader is taking good quality plays and reading order flow correctly is how many trades have minimal or 0 DD. If only 10% trades have minimal DD then order flow is likely not read correctly and there are too many B quality plays or just B quality entries on the plays. Over 50% of A quality plays have 0 DD beyond key flipped order flow area (HH bake point).
  • Post #5,743
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  • Sep 14, 2018 6:12am Sep 14, 2018 6:12am
  •  Forexmeoff
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 242 Posts
Brilliant, thanks a lot for the information Janpec
  • Post #5,744
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  • Sep 14, 2018 7:16am Sep 14, 2018 7:16am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Thin market today in FX, not much to see. Gonna wait for NYO on equities.
  • Post #5,745
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  • Sep 14, 2018 7:44am Sep 14, 2018 7:44am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
NIO todays primary focus, new fresh and hot IPO, heavily traded and crowded. Looking only for long plays of pullback legs along hot momentum.
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  • Post #5,746
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  • Sep 14, 2018 9:24am Sep 14, 2018 9:24am
  •  charvo
  • Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Backtest is meaningless (to me) | 1,980 Posts
for this to work, it usually needs US stock dropping hard, or solid going down......
so definitely need momentum to pull trigger
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  • Post #5,747
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  • Sep 14, 2018 9:50am Sep 14, 2018 9:50am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting janpec1000
Disliked
NIO todays primary focus, new fresh and hot IPO, heavily traded and crowded. Looking only for long plays of pullback legs along hot momentum. {image}
Ignored
This plan went straight off the table, NIO droping heavy, halted. Focus elsewhere....
  • Post #5,748
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  • Sep 14, 2018 9:51am Sep 14, 2018 9:51am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting charvo
Disliked
for this to work, it usually needs US stock dropping hard, or solid going down...... so definitely need momentum to pull trigger {image}
Ignored
Current bear leg is too weak, the leg that goes into demand has to be much stronger than the one currently printed. So either it bounces and retargets demand, or its a pass.
1
  • Post #5,749
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  • Edited at 10:03am Sep 14, 2018 9:53am | Edited at 10:03am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
112,02 USDJPY longed on pullback leg rotation. Also longed NVDA.
  • Post #5,750
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  • Sep 14, 2018 10:08am Sep 14, 2018 10:08am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting janpec1000
Disliked
112,02 USDJPY longed on pullback leg rotation. Also longed NVDA.
Ignored
NVDA long sold in 3 chunks for gains. USDJPY long sold for break even, micro shelf didnt hold, was skeptical of playing this one since the bull momentum started to fade on top of structure.
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  • Post #5,751
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  • Sep 14, 2018 10:12am Sep 14, 2018 10:12am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
BK on watch, this one is very symmetrical its a thin ticker however, so chances are sellers could dump it.
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  • Post #5,752
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  • Sep 14, 2018 10:21am Sep 14, 2018 10:21am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting janpec1000
Disliked
BK on watch, this one is very symmetrical its a thin ticker however, so chances are sellers could dump it. {image}
Ignored
BK long sold at break even, was a right decision, thin trading tickers can make quick turns if there is no enough liquidity.
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  • Post #5,753
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  • Sep 14, 2018 12:21pm Sep 14, 2018 12:21pm
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Potential play on USDCNH before NY closes, tariffs comfirmed, CNH should now take another hit along with further drop in Monday. Looking for bullish pullback leg setup on USDCNH. Plotting here mid term macro target for USDCNH with target above current H4 highs 6.895X
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  • Post #5,754
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  • Sep 14, 2018 3:06pm Sep 14, 2018 3:06pm
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting janpec1000
Disliked
Potential play on USDCNH before NY closes, tariffs comfirmed, CNH should now take another hit along with further drop in Monday. Looking for bullish pullback leg setup on USDCNH. Plotting here mid term macro target for USDCNH with target above current H4 highs 6.895X {image}
Ignored
Shorts are pilling in to CNH no doubt, from demand side dollar is prompted up on current pre-close level. Most likely further upward move from here, and potential gap open higher on Saturday Tokyo. Longing some with small position size and holding over weekend. This is high probability play, market has to price in new 200 billion of trade war tariffs impacting CNH / CNY thus its unlikely to see USDCNH go anywhere but higher from here.
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  • Post #5,755
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  • Sep 14, 2018 3:21pm Sep 14, 2018 3:21pm
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
MTCH last play of the day, if it retraces for entry.
  • Post #5,756
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  • Sep 14, 2018 4:04pm Sep 14, 2018 4:04pm
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting janpec1000
Disliked
MTCH last play of the day, if it retraces for entry.
Ignored
MTCH long sold, end of the day squeeze, overlaping play with 2 setups. Observing the strenght of who is in charge is key variable in trading. Demand area was clearly prompted by strong player/s in this case, heavy quick moves in demand area are almost always indications of strong market orders which is identication of strong players getting filled.
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  • Post #5,757
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  • Sep 16, 2018 8:19am Sep 16, 2018 8:19am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
USDCNH priority focus next week, macro play looking for long plays along strong bull momentum. As pointed on posts above.
  • Post #5,758
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  • Sep 17, 2018 3:38am Sep 17, 2018 3:38am
  •  Forexmeoff
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 242 Posts
AUD JPY, showing a bit of rounding
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  • Post #5,759
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  • Sep 17, 2018 4:02am Sep 17, 2018 4:02am
  •  Forexmeoff
  • | Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Member | 242 Posts
Target reached, entry a bit late....should have been lower
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  • Post #5,760
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  • Sep 17, 2018 4:11am Sep 17, 2018 4:11am
  •  janpec1000
  • Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 11,531 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Forexmeoff
Disliked
Target reached, entry a bit late....should have been lower {image}
Ignored
That was very good structure indeed, the strenght of bull legs was significant showing a potential for bottoming here. Micro shelf held as well on bounce.
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