Time felt right to reduce. I’m out of 90% of the position @ 32.85 for a few bps over 50% gain.

Wrong! I was wrong to lean against what the market was aggressively pricing in. Powell mentioned in the presser that last week's Umich survey data paired with CPI (presumably m/m) were factored into the decision. The new rate outlook bodes well ...

I still don't expect more than +50bps at this week's meeting, but after thinking on this.. it could be the case that the fed is seeing significantly more job losses in the coming weeks than what the market expects, which would limit their timeframe ...

Seeing several pieces fall into place over the past week: Consumer Credit: still growing at near-ATH amounts, total revolving credit outstanding at ATHs US CPI: higher than expected and, finally.. Consumer Sentiment: record low Ultimately the Fed is ...

There are quite a few things I can update here but I'll try to keep it short. Today's data intensified this trend: An increasing amount of otherwise decent-to-high-quality financial sources are discussing "healthy US consumer balance sheets" while ...

Hoooooly shit! Consumer credit absolutely demolished forecasts of ~25B, coming in at an all-time high of over 52B! The second highest reading was last month's revised 37B. Non-revolving credit shrank while revolving credit, which becomes a ...