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- yieldjunkie replied Jan 11, 2024
Been almost two years since I checked in here - happily holding this position, up ~100%, with an average cost of $11.06.
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 15, 2023
Back to highlight a few things. The following points from my last post remain relevant: Further Thoughts on Sea Change, memo from Howard Marks which is a continuation of the one noted here. Sadly was made public 4.5 months after it's publish date. I ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 26, 2023
I think the most relevant, and mispriced, risk right now from the market's point of view is that US inflation accelerates. I'll outline the case for this below: Fed funds futures have been, to my continued shock, pricing in cuts by year end for ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 12, 2023
Not many posts because there still isn't much to say. I came back here to make a note of something that recently occurred to me related to the "bull case" for risk. A material shift in behavior and composition of market participants could be to ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 10, 2023
Enrolled Grand prize is a 1oz gold bar. Here are the events for the period: image It ain't much, but it's enough to trade.
- yieldjunkie replied Dec 15, 2022
Posting this here for reference: url image
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 6, 2022
There isn't much to say about the macro outlook that hasn't already been said. There is currently no reason for the US Fed to slow tightening, and the amount of global tightening is the most dramatic and ubiquitous move we have seen in modern ...
- yieldjunkie replied Oct 5, 2022
Good luck! An enrollment link was sent to the email I used in prior challenges - this is probably the easiest way to sign-up. Did you end up making it in? Unfortunately I got caught-up with work and missed the start date . This ...
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 16, 2022
Rather than writing a long update on my views of the current state of macro, I'll post this video. url
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 15, 2022
It's back! This time the challenge is limited to Micro Bitcoin and Micro Ether futures - Trep's time to shine url
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 13, 2022
Bonkers price action lately in GRN! image
- yieldjunkie replied Sep 13, 2022
Great coverage of CPI! Your preview was spot-on. Environment feels reminiscent of early June, leading into the first 75bps hike this cycle. It seemed that UMich sentiment had a larger than typical impact into that hike, with WSJ referencing it in ...
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 16, 2022
Time felt right to reduce. I’m out of 90% of the position @ 32.85 for a few bps over 50% gain.
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 15, 2022
Wrong! I was wrong to lean against what the market was aggressively pricing in. Powell mentioned in the presser that last week's Umich survey data paired with CPI (presumably m/m) were factored into the decision. The new rate outlook bodes well ...
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 14, 2022
I still don't expect more than +50bps at this week's meeting, but after thinking on this.. it could be the case that the fed is seeing significantly more job losses in the coming weeks than what the market expects, which would limit their timeframe ...
- yieldjunkie replied Jun 13, 2022
Seeing several pieces fall into place over the past week: Consumer Credit: still growing at near-ATH amounts, total revolving credit outstanding at ATHs US CPI: higher than expected and, finally.. Consumer Sentiment: record low Ultimately the Fed is ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 27, 2022
There are quite a few things I can update here but I'll try to keep it short. Today's data intensified this trend: image An increasing amount of otherwise decent-to-high-quality financial sources are discussing "healthy US consumer balance sheets" ...
- yieldjunkie replied May 6, 2022
Hoooooly shit! Consumer credit absolutely demolished forecasts of ~25B, coming in at an all-time high of over 52B! The second highest reading was last month's revised 37B. Non-revolving credit shrank while revolving credit, which becomes a ...
- yieldjunkie replied Apr 27, 2022
This thread has been a pleasure to follow and a valuable resource. I'm certain that many have benefited from the information and appreciate the work you've put in! Widening focus to other asset classes can only improve overall trading ability imho. ...
- yieldjunkie replied Apr 18, 2022
Something else that I'd like to put a pin in is consumer demand. It's pretty tough to see consumer demand staying equal or strengthening with the ongoing pervasive inflation. This inflation can be sneaky, too, since firms like Amazon can raise ...