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-   -   Trading Bitcoin with Trend lines and S/R (https://www.cryptocraft.com/thread/934512-trading-bitcoin-with-trend-lines-and-sr)

YellowFellow Jul 21, 2019 7:08am | Post# 1

Trading Bitcoin with Trend lines and S/R
 
Strategy:

 

  1. Detect and Lower Highs, Lower Lows and Likes.
  2. Trade trend lines on different TFs


YellowFellow Jul 21, 2019 7:10am | Post# 2

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Lower highs and lower lows, currently short with SLs not too far..
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TudorIoan Jul 21, 2019 9:02am | Post# 3

Great job!
Just sell the tops and never buy the bottoms on bitcoin!

g-force Jul 23, 2019 11:42am | Post# 4

Lower highs and lower lows, currently short with SLs not too far.. {image}
Do you have a target TP or range to TP? You are very right about the current trend down so maybe it is not important to set the target until we lose the trend.

YellowFellow Jul 31, 2019 1:40pm | Post# 5

{quote} Do you have a target TP or range to TP? You are very right about the current trend down so maybe it is not important to set the target until we lose the trend.
Apologies for replying so late.. I messed up a lot this month.. kinda lost and haven't slept well..

cityRat Jul 31, 2019 2:10pm | Post# 6

{quote} Apologies for replying so late.. I messed up a lot this month.. kinda lost and haven't slept well..
We've all been there my friend. Good luck getting back on that horse.

g-force Jul 31, 2019 2:38pm | Post# 7

{quote} Apologies for replying so late.. I messed up a lot this month.. kinda lost and haven't slept well..
Ah sorry to hear that man. I thought you would've made out like a bandit shorting BTC earlier in the month.

YellowFellow Aug 1, 2019 2:08pm | Post# 8

{quote} Ah sorry to hear that man. I thought you would've made out like a bandit shorting BTC earlier in the month.
I've been improving lately... improved a lot.. but still a far cry from holding position to ride a simple rally..

g-force Aug 1, 2019 3:07pm | Post# 9

{quote} I've been improving lately... improved a lot.. but still a far cry from holding position to ride a simple rally..
Good to hear man. Progress makes the struggle worth it. Nothing is more joyful for me than the feeling of progress.

Ale1xandra Aug 3, 2019 4:47am | Post# 10

Lower highs and lower lows, currently short with SLs not too far.. {image}
At least it seems the only way to trade bitcoin in technical analysis...

MzansiObi Aug 3, 2019 11:04pm | Post# 11

This seems interesting.........will definately keep popping by.
Still trying to figure out it's correlation with rsk appetite/general market psychology......hopefully this thread can push on with some more info etc........

DonPato Aug 5, 2019 3:44pm | Post# 12

Hello friends...I'm very new to crypto currencies but not to trading. As I am aware (and I'm sure everyone else is also), markets all have their unique idiosyncrasies. Some lend themselves better to technical trading (like futures or FX) and others more to fundamental trading (like bonds, or commodities).

As you all (and I mean everyone) here have more experience with crypto trading... what is your opinion?

Is crypto more a technical trader's relm or a fundamental trader's relm?

TwoSense Aug 5, 2019 3:52pm | Post# 13

Hello friends...I'm very new to crypto currencies but not to trading. As I am aware (and I'm sure everyone else is also), markets all have their unique idiosyncrasies. Some lend themselves better to technical trading (like futures or FX) and others more to fundamental trading (like bonds, or commodities). As you all (and I mean everyone) here have more experience with crypto trading... what is your opinion? Is crypto more a technical trader's relm or a fundamental trader's relm?
Welcome! The Crypto market is maturing and as it does, it might become more fundamental based. Since it has such big swings, and momentum carries it either up or down for an exaggerated time period, technicals work IMO.

g-force Aug 5, 2019 6:23pm | Post# 14

Yeah, I think technicals play a larger role right now because the asset does not correlate or follow any other markets. Most people can't even say what type of news should make cryptos go up or down. As time goes on that will change though and it is definitely a mix of both. Bitcoin could never have gone from pennies to thousands without the fundamentals.

DonPato Aug 6, 2019 10:02am | Post# 15

Another question if I may...and again I'm sorry to distract...

Again I am unfamiliar with this market so please bear with me...Does anyone here use volume in their trading? If so how do you find the transparency of this data? I ask because I am very familiar with the FX market and know that market is decentralized, thus the volume data is "less" transparent than other markets like the futures market for instance. So is the crypto market also decentralized like the FX market? And if so where does the volume data come from? Anyone know?

Hasher Aug 7, 2019 6:07pm | Post# 16

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Another question if I may...and again I'm sorry to distract... Again I am unfamiliar with this market so please bear with me...Does anyone here use volume in their trading? If so how do you find the transparency of this data? I ask because I am very familiar with the FX market and know that market is decentralized, thus the volume data is "less" transparent than other markets like the futures market for instance. So is the crypto market also decentralized like the FX market? And if so where does the volume data come from? Anyone know?
Most exchanges can provide volume data through their APIs depending how fancy you want to get. Alternatively you can look at BTC transactions as volume, blockchain.com has a nice graph: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions

Are you looking for general buy/sell volume or something more specific?
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yg10 Aug 7, 2019 6:34pm | Post# 17

Another question if I may...and again I'm sorry to distract... Again I am unfamiliar with this market so please bear with me...Does anyone here use volume in their trading? If so how do you find the transparency of this data? I ask because I am very familiar with the FX market and know that market is decentralized, thus the volume data is "less" transparent than other markets like the futures market for instance. So is the crypto market also decentralized like the FX market? And if so where does the volume data come from? Anyone know?
Crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken etc provide data for each trade including price and volume.
Data services CoinMarketCap, Cryptocompare, Cryptowat.ch, ... consolidate this data and provide total volume.

DonPato Aug 7, 2019 6:50pm | Post# 18

{quote} Crypto exchanges like Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken etc provide data for each trade including price and volume. Data services CoinMarketCap, Cryptocompare, Cryptowat.ch, ... consolidate this data and provide total volume.
Thank you for this reply. I will need to check further to see where my broker is pulling the volume data from. While I do get a daily volume number I do not see the data you mentioned above... I'll need to check it out further.

DonPato Aug 7, 2019 6:54pm | Post# 19

{quote} Most exchanges can provide volume data through their APIs depending how fancy you want to get. Alternatively you can look at BTC transactions as volume, blockchain.com has a nice graph: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions Are you looking for general buy/sell volume or something more specific? {image}
Thank you for your response. I am looking for a little more detailed information. More than just total volume. Time and sales is probably more in line with what I'm looking for. The price and amount (in transaction size) as well as date and time of each transaction. This is what my tools use to generate Delta volume numbers at each price level.

TwoSense Aug 7, 2019 8:34pm | Post# 20

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{quote} Thank you for your response. I am looking for a little more detailed information. More than just total volume. Time and sales is probably more in line with what I'm looking for. The price and amount (in transaction size) as well as date and time of each transaction. This is what my tools use to generate Delta volume numbers at each price level.
Hi DonPato, I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for but maybe it'll help. Coinbase Pro's platform is garbage, but they do display something similar to level 2. On the left side you can see the order book for whatever cross you've selected. On the right side, is the trade history, including size, price, and time. Of course this is only Coinbase users but it's the closest thing that I could think of that matched what you were looking for. I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any questions about the Coinbase Pro platfrom.
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DonPato Aug 7, 2019 9:15pm | Post# 21

{quote} Hi DonPato, I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for but maybe it'll help. ...}
That is much closer to what I am looking for... thank you!!

As expected it is only the platform (or broker's) market but it is decades better than what I am currently using. I will look into it further. Again thank you.

TwoSense Aug 7, 2019 9:54pm | Post# 22

{quote} That is much closer to what I am looking for... thank you!! As expected it is only the platform (or broker's) market but it is decades better than what I am currently using. I will look into it further. Again thank you.
Glad I could be of assistance. Let me know if you need any other information. Good luck to you!

yg10 Aug 7, 2019 9:55pm | Post# 23

{quote} Thank you for this reply. I will need to check further to see where my broker is pulling the volume data from.
I do not think that Fx brokers get volume data from their
While I do get a daily volume number I do not see the data you mentioned above... I'll need to check it out further.

Here are some links
https://coinmarketcap.com/
https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
https://cryptowat.ch/

Ale1xandra Aug 10, 2019 12:22pm | Post# 24

Hello friends...I'm very new to crypto currencies but not to trading. As I am aware (and I'm sure everyone else is also), markets all have their unique idiosyncrasies. Some lend themselves better to technical trading (like futures or FX) and others more to fundamental trading (like bonds, or commodities). As you all (and I mean everyone) here have more experience with crypto trading... what is your opinion? Is crypto more a technical trader's relm or a fundamental trader's relm?
I think only technical.

MzansiObi Aug 10, 2019 1:29pm | Post# 25

{quote} I do not think that Fx brokers get volume data from their {quote} Here are some links https://coinmarketcap.com/ https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b https://cryptowat.ch/
Just checked the info out...seems very useful. Makes for some good reading over the weekend.....qu

MzansiObi Aug 10, 2019 5:53pm | Post# 26

Been fooling around with some stuff this weekend.
Will try it out(internally for two weeks) and revert thereafter to you guys......whther it works or not will report back.....initial backtesting seems promising.........holding thumbs

roxxd Aug 10, 2019 11:33pm | Post# 27

It doesn't seem that BTC is respecting any trend lines or support resistance.

DonPato Aug 12, 2019 10:47am | Post# 28

{quote} I think only technical.
Thank you Ale1xandra

I am beginning to see that and have also noticed that the Crypto market is decentralized just like the FX market and directly competes with major banks and commodity markets for value. While most "value" in electronic exchanges is fleeting and only "perceived" I have to wonder where crypto currencies really fit in? They have ONLY perceived value that maintains its worth through the general acceptance of a given community (in this case the crypto market). But have zero intrinsic value whatsoever. Just like any other FIAT currency. However a FIAT is backed by the strength (or weakness) of the government or governmentally supported issuing agency. Ex: US Dollar is "backed by the full force and credit of the United States"...quoting from the US Federal Reserve.

What backs BitCoin? Anyone know? Is it really just some computer genius with a server farm in his mother's basement?

Hasher Aug 15, 2019 10:54am | Post# 29

{quote} Thank you Ale1xandra I am beginning to see that and have also noticed that the Crypto market is decentralized just like the FX market and directly competes with major banks and commodity markets for value. While most "value" in electronic exchanges is fleeting and only "perceived" I have to wonder where crypto currencies really fit in? They have ONLY perceived value that maintains its worth through the general acceptance of a given community (in this case the crypto market). But have zero intrinsic value whatsoever. Just like any other FIAT...
The miners back bitcoin and you don't even need to trust them

DonPato Aug 15, 2019 11:45am | Post# 30

{quote} The miners back bitcoin and you don't even need to trust them
And herein lies my "issue" with crypto in general. I completely understand the way that markets work generally, but with crypto exchanges I am in the dark. We are buying and selling something that literally doesn't exist. Not even in an electronic sense. Gold is tangible, stocks, bonds and currencies are paper but also "secured" by some company or government that will most likely have a vested interest in it's own success. Commodities are tangible and consumable. Thus each of these markets (and their corresponding derivatives) are something that, at the end of the day actually exist. And crypto currency? It only exists as an electron in a machine and will "vanish" if it has a power failure.

And before you make the obvious comparison, yes I completely understand that any cash wealth is basically the same thing... however my house, my land the physical gold I own, (all of which I purchased with "electronic cash") are still tangible things I can physical manipulate. I can go to any bank in the world and withdraw, interchange,and negotiate with my real cash. This is because it is BACKED by someone or something. So how do I buy my next house, car, steak dinner with crypto? Do I call on the "crypto miners" to verify the value of my crypto assets?

yg10 Aug 15, 2019 10:59pm | Post# 31

{quote} And herein lies my "issue" with crypto in general. I completely understand the way that markets work generally, but with crypto exchanges I am in the dark. We are buying and selling something that literally doesn't exist. Not even in an electronic sense. Gold is tangible, stocks, bonds and currencies are paper but also "secured" by some company or government that will most likely have a vested interest in it's own success. Commodities are tangible and consumable. Thus each of these markets (and their corresponding derivatives) are something...
What about VIX options that is traded on CBOE, or CME weather futures? How tangible is VIX or how consumable is weather?
How the digital ledger that runs on ~10000 computers "doesn't exist. Not even in an electronic sense"?
The probability that 10K computers in data centers around the world will lose power simultaneously is much less than probability that some company goes bankrupt or some bank will fail or sovereign default.

MarkGman Aug 16, 2019 2:13pm | Post# 32

Excellent links. Good to see sizes of these exchanges - and knowing can look at aggregate volumes on target time frames.

g-force Aug 16, 2019 7:15pm | Post# 33

The probability that 10K computers in data centers around the world will lose power simultaneously is much less than probability that some company goes bankrupt or some bank will fail or sovereign default.
Yeah, that is a good point. I think the biggest risk to any legit cryptocurrency is a 51% attack though not that all miners will lose power.

Ale1xandra Aug 20, 2019 5:11am | Post# 34

{quote} Yeah, that is a good point. I think the biggest risk to any legit cryptocurrency is a 51% attack though not that all miners will lose power.

is a good point of view. But speculation is stronger than everything. in my idea is usless trying to find some fundamental reasons for crypto movements.

Hasher Aug 20, 2019 10:40am | Post# 35

{quote} Yeah, that is a good point. I think the biggest risk to any legit cryptocurrency is a 51% attack though not that all miners will lose power.
I wonder if BTC will employ some quantum proofing, supposedly quantum computing won't break sha256 but it could crack theoretically private/public key pairs.

g-force Aug 20, 2019 5:27pm | Post# 36

{quote} is a good point of view. But speculation is stronger than everything. in my idea is usless trying to find some fundamental reasons for crypto movements.
I agree that the fundamentals don’t usually determine the price movement right now. I think speculation is high as you say but also the utility of crypto is still a WIP. It is very hard to value something when so many of its use cases are not fully developed. Same reason why tech stocks don’t follow the same rules as consumer good stocks (D/E ratio, PE multiple, etc etc)

enochben Aug 20, 2019 6:37pm | Post# 37

{quote} And herein lies my "issue" with crypto in general. I completely understand the way that markets work generally, but with crypto exchanges I am in the dark. We are buying and selling something that literally doesn't exist. Not even in an electronic sense. Gold is tangible, stocks, bonds and currencies are paper but also "secured" by some company or government that will most likely have a vested interest in it's own success. Commodities are tangible and consumable. Thus each of these markets (and their corresponding derivatives) are something...
I have traded just about everything you can imagine - treasuries, cotton, lumber, pork bellies, OJ, soybean oil, cocoa, DAX, FTSE, and currencies. NONE of the above was something I could touch - it wasn't tangible. I was trading futures, which gave me the ability to trade with extreme leverage. I was never going to take delivery of a tanker of oil, but the futures market allows thousands to trade it without ever taking delivery. My broker could look at my account and would NEVER allow a contract to expire on me as they knew I could not afford to take delivery. Same with corn, soybeans, whatever - 90% (a guess) of the market participants are just trading the concept with no involvement of the underlying commodity.

For me crypto is the same - I am simply trading it and I don't ever plan on taking possession of bitcoin - I just want to make money off of the price fluctuations. At the end of the trade I want to have cash - and that CASH I CAN WITHDRAW and use how I see fit. Sometimes I do withdraw cash from my trading account and buy bitcoin to hold elsewhere.

It really is no different than trading anything else - its just how you are choosing to view it.

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin

vanillaice Aug 20, 2019 9:44pm | Post# 38

{quote} I have traded just about everything you can imagine - treasuries, cotton, lumber, pork bellies, OJ, soybean oil, cocoa, DAX, FTSE, and currencies. NONE of the above was something I could touch - it wasn't tangible. I was trading futures, which gave me the ability to trade with extreme leverage. I was never going to take delivery of a tanker of oil, but the futures market allows thousands to trade it without ever taking delivery. My broker could look at my account and would NEVER allow a contract to expire on me as they knew I could not afford...
Trader to the core! Love it, bro

g-force Aug 20, 2019 10:48pm | Post# 39

{quote} I have traded just about everything you can imagine - treasuries, cotton, lumber, pork bellies, OJ, soybean oil, cocoa, DAX, FTSE, and currencies. NONE of the above was something I could touch - it wasn't tangible. I was trading futures, which gave me the ability to trade with extreme leverage. I was never going to take delivery of a tanker of oil, but the futures market allows thousands to trade it without ever taking delivery. My broker could look at my account and would NEVER allow a contract to expire on me as they knew I could not afford...
Wow, my hat is off to you for my favorite post of the day. Your quote is well delivered too!

You are of course right about the mechanics of futures and the delivery (or lack thereof) of the underlying commodity. And guess what? If someone decided they wanted to take delivery of BTC it would be quite simple. Not to mention you could verify that a counterparty actually held the asset via a check of the blockchain.

MzansiObi Aug 21, 2019 12:00am | Post# 40

{quote} I have traded just about everything you can imagine - treasuries, cotton, lumber, pork bellies, OJ, soybean oil, cocoa, DAX, FTSE, and currencies. NONE of the above was something I could touch - it wasn't tangible. I was trading futures, which gave me the ability to trade with extreme leverage. I was never going to take delivery of a tanker of oil, but the futures market allows thousands to trade it without ever taking delivery. My broker could look at my account and would NEVER allow a contract to expire on me as they knew I could not afford...
That Darwin quote is an all time favourite of mine......very applicable to trading as you constantly need to adapt


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