These are the podcast episode notes from an interview with crypto podcaster, software aficionado and trader Brian Krogsgard (LedgerStatus on Twitter). Krogsgard runs the Ledger Cast podcast and also works in the software industry. Listen to the Crypto: Secrets of the Trade interview on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Whooshkaa.
[Ed note: Investing in cryptocoins or tokens is highly speculative and the market is largely unregulated. Anyone considering it should be prepared to lose their entire investment.]
(Comments stated are relevant to the time of the interview. As time progresses, dynamics change, leading to potentially altered variables and outcomes. Price analysis can be speculative and based on opinion.)
This year is almost halfway over, and bitcoin is looking back on an exciting year in the price category. It rose from the doldrums, all the way up to arguable exuberance and parabolic action. Lately, bitcoin's price has seen a bit of ranging activity as the market looks indecisive on further uptrend momentum, according to opinions and analysis from crypto podcaster and trader Brian Krogsgard, also known on Twitter as LedgerStatus.
"We're basically trying to see if we are going to just keep consolidating at this higher level and push for a new leg up, or if it's truly a topping pattern," Krogsgard told me in a podcast interview on June 11, 2019. "A key level would be if we breach above around $8,200 on a daily level," he said, mentioning this level also coincides with the Bollinger Band midline, a popular technical analysis indicator sometimes used in trend analysis.
If the $8,200 price zone is broken to the upside, Krogsgard said he sees it as an indication of potential further price action up toward 2019's highs, which are in the low $9,000 range.
In general, however, Krogsgard said he is looking for consolidation ahead. "For the most part, I'm just looking for consolidation and dip-buying opportunities," he said. "I wouldn't say $8,000 bitcoin is a particularly attractive place to buy," he added, noting his personal opinion based on his analysis. "We're fairly far from the mean, if you will, as in, we've moved fast so far this year, so I think that there will probably be cheaper places to buy, but it's certainly possible we have another leg up," the trader added.
I know that's saying both things at once, but we're due for a correction. Even in bull markets, corrections of 30-40% are normal, so I'm waiting for when that occurs. It could be now, with an outside chance of another high, maybe into that $9,600 range first."
Early Beginnings
Every trader has a background before becoming active in the markets, often running into a catalyst, in one form or another, which pushes them toward their trading endeavors. For Krogsgard, that catalyst was his dad, who taught him about traditional markets when he was in eighth grade.
"He gave me a small amount of money and told me, 'Hey, you can do whatever you want with this money, as long as it's invested,'" Krogsgard said. "That's how I first learned about investing."
The trader recounted memories of himself sitting at the kitchen table around the time Google went public, thinking $88 per share was too expensive for what they offered as a software business at the time. "I had some exposure to stuff way back then [...] I had this fundamental plus technical system for trying to find stocks, which was pretty funny," he said, remembering his learning process as a new trader and investor.
Krogsgard mentioned a few fundamental aspects he looked for, as well as analyzing price with respect to Bollinger Bands. "That was something that I had going and learned about in high school for random swing trading in my brokerage account where my dad was kind of helping guide me along, but I came up with that system and had the full power to trade myself," he said.
Finding his way to the crypto markets in early 2017, Krogsgard said, "I wish I could say I got into bitcoin at an early time and understood it as an investment vehicle at an early time, but I didn't." The analyst said he knew of bitcoin back in 2012, but said he simply thought of the asset as a method of transaction and not as a type of investment.
"I didn't actually make my first buys until I learned about the smart contract side of things and not just the bitcoin as money or store of value," Krogsgard explained. "When I heard about smart contracts and ethereum - because ethereum was going crazy making that move from $10 to $100 plus - that's when I made my first buys," he said. "I'm just a normal retail investor just like everybody else that got in during a bull run," he added, noting that he made his fair share of mistakes along the way.
I think I do bring a unique background in a couple of ways. One being that I have some exposure to legacy markets like I talked about. Another being that I come from the software world. I work in open-source software, so I focus particularly on web development and particularly in the WordPress content management ecosystem."
