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Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates amid turbulent conditions
The market is pricing in the first 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week on 18 February. While this is in line with our view and we place a 60% probability to it, we think the decision to cut or pause will be a close one – and it’s therefore not a done deal. Key to our thinking is that the wage pressures have eased more than expected and household consumption growth has been weaker than expected, which should give the RBA more comfort to ease. However, the unemployment rate is still below the central bank’s target, which could result in more uncertainty on the pace and timing of rate ... (full story)