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Uncertainty Is Certain
In our October 2024 Cyclical Outlook, “Securing the Soft Landing,” we said the U.S. economy, like others, appeared poised for a rare soft landing – moderating growth and inflation without recession. We said DM economies appeared on track to return to target inflation levels in 2025. We saw risks stemming from the U.S. election and persistently high sovereign debt levels. The broad contours of that forecast remain in place. We expect global real GDP growth to slow modestly. Lower immigration and higher tariffs are likely to temper U.S. growth despite an otherwise robust economy. Meanwhile, Europe continues to ... (full story)