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  • The US Employment Situation -- October 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent in October, and the number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.4 million. ... (full story)

Added at 8:33am

Added at 8:36am

  • U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October, far less than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%

    From cnbc.com

    Job creation in October slowed to its weakest pace since late 2020 as the impacts of storms in the Southeast and a significant labor impasse dented hiring plans. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. It was the smallest gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate, however, held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. In the report narrative, the BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 positions overall. Along with ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.172.8
Almost negative... Fed official was right it seems.
After all, no one would call this fake data
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.27.5
October Surprise.
this is unbelievable. 12k. isnt real right?
only 12k wtf
Hurricane + Strike affected data.
Quoting Catalyst24
this is unbelievable. 12k. isnt real right?
it is with revisions....
its all just one persons opinion....
i thought it was a joke for a second.
12k... huh??? that's crazy!
I want to be rich.
Pretty strange.. even worse then covid times??
Lol...12k
Revision....Crash.....Labor Market
The wage growth is good and its important as its linked to inflation. Jobs are linked to two Hurricanes and strikes in Boeing etc.

I feel strong Dollar in few hours.
The number was revised down by 112k in two months? Is there anyone else who doesn't think the BLS numbers are a bad joke?
Big miss! An uptick in avg hourly earnings but prior revised down.

The story of this release could be the downward revisions in NFP and the decline in temp jobs.

Notables:

Government Employment added 40K, driven by gains in state government employment (18K).

Healthcare added 52K jobs, with ambulatory services (36K) and nursing facilities (9K) leading the growth.

Construction added 8K, reflecting steady growth in nonresidential specialty trade contractors.


Manufacturing declined by -46K, with losses concentrated in transportation equipment due to strikes.

Temporary Help Services dropped by -49K, marking a significant reduction amid slower demand. This sector has shown a decline, with a cumulative reduction of over -577K jobs since its peak in March 2022.

Significant revisions were made to prior months, with the September nonfarm payroll change adjusted down by -112K.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting althar
The number was revised down by 112k in two months? Is there anyone else who doesn't think the BLS numbers are a bad joke?
100% agree
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.16.154
Companies are not hiring because they are waitung for the election outcome
This is not bad news, on the contrary it will support the dollar in the short term. Don't care about the jobs number, care about the unemployment rate.
South USA was affected by Hurrican
Quoting EventsTrader
Temporary Help Services dropped by -49K, marking a significant reduction amid slower demand. This sector has shown a decline, with a cumulative reduction of over -577K jobs since its peak in March 2022.
Temp jobs always go before full time employees. That weakness carries weight.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
The unemploymnet rate is still 4.1% after all adjustments. That is what was forecast so not as bad as it looks.
its all just one persons opinion....
Quoting EventsTrader
Big miss! An uptick in avg hourly earnings but prior revised down. The story of this release could be the downward revisions and decline in temp jobs. Notables: Government Employment added 40K, driven by gains in state government employment (18K). Healthcare added 52K jobs, with ambulatory services (36K) and nursing facilities (9K) leading the growth. Construction added 8K, reflecting steady growth in nonresidential specialty trade contractors. ...
Wow
NFP is not the driver

Its The Elephant!

Prezzie Election stupid!
this BLS can go home
chaos is just unknown order
[quote=EventsTrader;15048057]
so is the 4.1% still accurate?
its all just one persons opinion....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.X.146.60
Then it's rise for gold then
This is definitely bullshit, ADP was showing a big beat then NFP is showing a big miss.....
ADP - Private sector employment increased by 233,000 jobs in October and annual pay was up 4.6 percent year-over-year
Then this bullshit government is showing 12k??? they're definitely manipulating the numbers before the election.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXXX:14ae:9b7d
A guest who was on CNBC when the numbers were announced, who mysteriously disappeared, said this on air:

"If you look at the household data you actually lost almost 400,000 jobs. Employment fell almost 400k jobs. More importantly you look at private wage and salary workers within the household survey, which is the core number, that was down 102,000. The reason the unemployment rate was stable is because civilian labor force shrunk over a couple hundred thousand so this may not look like the great number or ex-hurricane that is."
Have revisions always been this huge? It seems that these massive corrections are appearing more frequently since the US has tried to prop up the Biden/Harris economic agenda.
Quoting axecap
so is the 4.1% still accurate?
Civilian Labor Force declined by -220K, indicating a reduction in labor participation. I've never been a big believer in the unemployment rate because of how they exclude so much of the population that maybe should be included.

Individuals who haven't actively searched for a job in the past four weeks and discouraged workers. So if somebody cannot actually find a job they just exclude them from the workforce? I'm not sure how that stuff can even be measured. I know the BLS has to come up with something because they can't include everybody but it's clear they definitely lean towards calculating with a smaller workforce, which in turn will lower the unemployment rate.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
USD is rising. Oh, nice. The confusion figure is good for rising, although it is too low.
When the longer-term driver(US Prezzie Election) is ahead of the more frequent driver (NFP)

The frequent driver is way less significant.

This is clearly a rule that should not be ignored !
12k job rising FED rate cut will be 75 BPS...
HEY USD wrong way bud
Quoting Ftmofx
12k job rising FED rate cut will be 75 BPS...
Market seems to disagree... Job numbers are irrelevant with hurricane and strikes factored in. Wages ticking up and core inflation getting sticky. I don't see how they could possibly justify such a rate cut.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.137.18
Quoting dildobaggins
{quote} Market seems to disagree... Job numbers are irrelevant with hurricane and strikes factored in. Wages ticking up and core inflation getting sticky. I don't see how they could possibly justify such a rate cut.
TBH, the narrative of weather and strikes is copium. This was known information, this employment print is terrible. The trend is very clearly not good for employment. The market will "digest" this, as usual, but first it has to move against the consensus to rinse the speculators. No objective observe can truly think that things are going to "improve" from whatever the baseline is right now. The market will catch up to fundamentals, eventually. The new cycle and new narrative will start as soon as the election is over, regardless of who wins.
We will just have to agree to disagree on this one. I don't think the real underlying movers of the forex market care about retail traders opinions. We are a drop of water in an ocean.. Also, effects of the rates beginning to drop have yet to be realized. Job creation will inevitably swing back with money getting cheaper, it's a matter of when not if. The fact that wages are growing even before we see the true effects of rate cycle being reversed would give me cause for concern if I was a governing member of the fed. I don't see any reason for the fed to rush the cuts though.. I see what you mean with copium and the election but I live in North Carolina. Asheville and the entire surrounding areas are absolutely decimated its much worse than what you see online so it makes sense for that region being cause for disappointing job numbers if they are included. Revisions have been big but we're still seeing positive numbers come out. I see more risk of inflation roaring back on the medium to long term than the economy breaking.
That being said we will all see next week. Just exited some eur/usd shorts and usd/jpy usd/chf longs. 50 or so pips in a couple hours not a bad day! That initial spike on the 12k jobs release made for a great entry. Will wait to see if eur/usd breaks through trendline (1.08 area) there may be a perfect setup more a multiday swing sown to lower support levels that could double down with election results.. Could also see more consolidation and indecision with the up and down news today and unknowns of new administration. We shall see cheers y'all!
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.137.18
Quoting dildobaggins
We will just have to agree to disagree on this one. I don't think the real underlying movers of the forex market care about retail traders opinions. We are a drop of water in an ocean.. Also, effects of the rates beginning to drop have yet to be realized. Job creation will inevitably swing back with money getting cheaper, it's a matter of when not if. The fact that wages are growing even before we see the true effects of rate cycle being reversed would give me cause for concern if I was a governing member of the fed. I don't see any reason for the...
I'm not entirely in disagreement. With respect to Forex moves, it's likely that the US is, at present, in a stronger position than the faltering economies elsewhere. With the push and pull of the various forces acting upon currencies, the balance so far seems to be toward USD being safer than the others. Bonds are clearly spooked by the election outcome and, for now, are ignoring the employment trajectory. Just a short while ago this this kind of NFP print (actually, not even as bad) sent the global markets reeling with Nikkei plunging nearly 20% and US markets nearly 10%, 10YR crashing toward 3.5% and USD plunging. Fundamentally, though, today's data is even worse.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.39.92
Quoting dildobaggins
We will just have to agree to disagree on this one. I don't think the real underlying movers of the forex market care about retail traders opinions. We are a drop of water in an ocean.. Also, effects of the rates beginning to drop have yet to be realized. Job creation will inevitably swing back with money getting cheaper, it's a matter of when not if. The fact that wages are growing even before we see the true effects of rate cycle being reversed would give me cause for concern if I was a governing member of the fed. I don't see any reason for the...
How economy not break under rates so high? Inflation will be defeated with a hard landing, there is no other way.
Quoting Guest
{quote} How economy not break under rates so high? Inflation will be defeated with a hard landing, there is no other way.
Rates are already beginning to go down. Stock market at all time high. Job market isn't booming like it was but its still net positive. GDP isn't amazing but economy is still growing. And rates will continue to go down which should boost jobs and economy. If the economy was going to break it would have by now in my opinion. Unless rates are cut too quickly and inflation comes roaring back I don't see anything breaking while financial conditions soften. Not sure what the other person is referencing with nikkei and bonds crashing previously but I do think the 12k print is an outlier. When usd was going down a couple months ago; from my point of view was caused by people believing the fed would have to cut rates faster than other central banks but outlook now seems reversed now with much more data.. if memory serves that is
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