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Week Ahead: Is the Closeness of the US Election a Source of US Dollar Demand?
The dollar rose against all the G10 currencies last week, but it was not because of higher US rates. In fact, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell for the first time in five weeks. The two-year yield did not rise for the first time in three weeks. Rather than an increase in US rates, several other countries' rates fell. The result was that the US 2-year premium over Germany rose for the fourth consecutive week and is now the most since June. The US premium over Canada rose for the third week and the sixth week in the past seven. It is approaching 100 bp, the most since 1997. The US discount to the UK narrowed to less ... (full story)
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