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Gold Hits New Record High; US Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On 'Good'-Data, 'Trump-Trade'
Soft' (Philly Fed & NAHB) and 'Hard' data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed... chart Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the 'no landing' narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower... chart Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now... chart Goldman's Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50/50 odds. "I think there is a possibility this pair could go to the July highs before the election, but it would ... (full story)
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