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Another Hot U.S. Core CPI Print Was Dampened By a Record Low Seasonal Adjustment Factor
In case it wasn’t already clear after the payrolls report, the takeaway from an upside surprise on core CPI is to forget about another fifty from the Fed. I’m not entirely sold on delivering further cuts in November and/or December either. In fact, data is emboldening the argument that cutting 50bps in non-emergency conditions within an economy that remains in excess aggregate demand was another policy misstep led by Chair Powell who is paying a price for abandoning his earlier cautions on data issues. Core CPI was up by 0.31% m/m SA which is false precision to the second decimal point but indicates that the 0.3% ... (full story)