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  • ADP US National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 143,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.7%

    From prnewswire.com

    Private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the ... (full story)

Added at 8:19am

  • Private payrolls show better-than-expected growth of 143,000 in September, ADP says

    From cnbc.com

    Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 143,000 jobs for the month, an acceleration from the upwardly revised 103,000 in August and better than the 128,000 consensus forecast from economists polled by Dow Jones. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The 12-month gain for those staying in their jobs nudged lower to 4.7%, while tumbling to 6.6% for job switchers, down 0.7 percentage point from August. Job gains were fairly widespread, ... (full story)

Poor data
Quoting Ftmofx
Poor data
your comment based on what?
its all just one persons opinion....
With port strike and great better than expected data, and war , Inflation is going to go up not down, FED should start hike for 2 years before even thinking to talk cuts
Why is this poor data.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.38.13
Did the Fed rush to cut rates?
nice bullish driver, surprises from NFP friday?
chaos is just unknown order
Quoting gzforex20
With port strike and great better than expected data, and war , Inflation is going to go up not down, FED should start hike for 2 years before even thinking to talk cuts
why do you think hiking would hinder inflation in such a scenario?
Quoting axecap
{quote} your comment based on what?
ADP 200k below is not standard data. Economically it is poor data and it is so far from 200K
Quoting Banditten
{quote} why do you think hiking would hinder inflation in such a scenario?
There certainly wont be any hiking . The only questiuon is a rate cut by 50bps vs 25bps.
currently 60 40 split in favour of 25. NFP may change that bit I suspect not. Hiking is not an option
its all just one persons opinion....
Quoting Ftmofx
{quote} ADP 200k below is not standard data. Economically it is poor data and it is so far from 200K
It has been below 200k since August 2023. What standards are you referencing?
The solution is (x).
Quoting gzforex20
With port strike and great better than expected data, and war , Inflation is going to go up not down, FED should start hike for 2 years before even thinking to talk cuts
Spoiler alert: They can't hike. If they do, it will break the system.

Interest on the national debt is bigger than military spending. Although 2nd spoiler alert, this cut cycle and the boomers all retiring and us having a really small workforce... this is where it all breaks. Since we have exponentially growing debt and a shrinking population, and it is EVERYWHERE in the world now and not just in Japan... with one country world could sustain this as we have seen... but a majority of countries with the same thing?

In about 5-10 years, we are going to see EVERYWHERE else in the US have $million dollar houses, basically what the wealthy enclaves of east/west cities are now. The one area where I could be wrong, is a lot of boomers will be "moving on", so perhaps with the generations behind them being so much smaller... this will keep price of housing decent.

My bet though is in about a decade, we are going to see VERY FUNNY prices on everything. Because the traditional system is in the process of breaking, right about now.
Quoting skillz16
{quote} Spoiler alert: They can't hike. If they do, it will break the system. Interest on the national debt is bigger than military spending. Although 2nd spoiler alert, this cut cycle and the boomers all retiring and us having a really small workforce... this is where it all breaks. Since we have exponentially growing debt and a shrinking population, and it is EVERYWHERE in the world now and not just in Japan... with one country world could sustain this as we have seen... but a majority of countries with the same thing? In about 5-10 years, we...


If I would have to guess, I would guess the elite think that humanoid robots can/will fill in the gap of the workforce shrinking along with debt still needing to grow exponentially. I'd bet though ha, they become too effective, the robots. And basically then we need a new economic system. So basically most people might not even have value as a consumer... or I guess perhaps they would have value consuming the products the robots/owners sell to them, the unemployed spending their UBI just back into the companies.

I don't think I am a doomer. I think the new/next industrial revolution is close, and like factories killed us manufacturing and caused issues, I think this kills almost ALL JOBS. Whoops
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.199.38
Jobs number Friday will be a blow out to the upside. They were way to premature with the 50 pts cut.

Inflation is a like a freight train slowing down. It takes a long time to slow and then stop.

Oil and soft commodities are the only thing I see lower in price. Other inputs all still up there.
Quoting Luxyus
nice bullish driver, surprises from NFP friday?
The dollar index rose to over 101.4 on Wednesday, extending its earlier gains amid stronger-than-expected labor market data and demand for the greenback’s safety on escalated geopolitical concerns. A report from the ADP suggested that over 140,000 jobs were added to the US private sector in September. This added to evidence that the US labor market may refrain from softening at the marked pace that brought concern to Fed policymakers and drove the central bank to deliver an aggressive 50bps cut last month, paring expectations on the magnitude of the current cutting cycle. Additionally, dollar demand remained supported by concerns of escalated warfare in the Middle East after Iran attacked Israel with ballistic missiles overnight, driving Israeli authorities to pledge a response.
46 minutes ago
chaos is just unknown order
Maximum another 25BPS cut!
It never makes sense. Market makers trapping traders.
The USD/JPY is completely off the rails
Quoting objective
The USD/JPY is completely off the rails
It’s really not. Why do you say that?
The solution is (x).
expect 4 more weeks of BS till the election.....
Goldilocks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting chaoshydra
expect 4 more weeks of BS till the election.....
Haven't you seen the JPY pairs today? They're up 200-300 pips in one morning session.
right, the Goldilocks scenario for the Powell soft landing. The markets continue rolling up to new ath's, employment is still strong, inflation is going down, rates are going down, etc etc. Only an October surprise could spoil it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} He’s talking about the equity markets, or that’s what I understood it as .
exactly. but it's about most of the news we gonna get for the weeks coming.

the yen pairs just react to a less "speed and violente " lowering of rates (europe and US).

BUT

numbers could (i should say will) change drasticly after the election...

and i'm aiming 1.50 on eur/jpy in early 2025.
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