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US Economic Update: Foundation for Fed cuts almost in place
Benign inflation in May and June firms our expectation the FOMC will cut come September. • A cut at the Fed’s 31 July meeting remains unlikely, but we continue to expect two cuts this year. • Jobs growth remains solid but the unemployment rate has risen; Fed Chair Powell now considers the labour market to be balanced. • We expect Q2 GDP on 25 July of 0.4% q/q, another quarter of only moderate growth. We now expect 2024 year-average growth of 2.2% (was 2.3%). Modest growth outlook The US economy is set to record another quarter of moderate growth in Q2, similar to that seen in Q1, but well down on the robust ... (full story)