July’s ECB cheat sheet: The less I know the better

From think.ing.com

As discussed in our full European Central Bank preview, we think the Governing Council will avoid disrupting markets with any new forward guidance at its 18 July meeting. There is an inevitable spillover effect from the recent dovish repricing in Federal Reserve expectations and the turmoil in French bond markets; incidentally, the recovery in growth expectations is losing steam. At the same time, inflation has failed to ease convincingly, and there are lingering concerns about wage growth stickiness. Off-meeting ECB communication has indicated that rates will most likely be kept on hold at this meeting, and in our ... (full story)