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US Recession Probabilities for June 2025
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through June 2024, and assuming no recession has arrived as of July 2024. chart Figure 1: Probit estimated recession probabilities for 12 months ahead, using 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month rate (blue), 10yr-3mo spread, 3 mo rate, and debt-service-ratio for private nonfinancial sector (tan), and 10yr-3mo spread, 3 mo rate, debt-service-ratio for private nonfinancial sector, and foreign term spread (green). Sample for estimation 1985M03-2024M06. NBER defined ... (full story)
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- Jul 16, 2024 4:41am Jul 16, 2024 4:41am
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Tony112 - Joined Apr 2008 | Status: sometimes... news come unexpected | 2630 Comments
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- Posted: Jul 16, 2024 3:20am
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 1 / Views: 3,796
