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  • US inflation relief keeps the door open to a September rate cut

    From think.ing.com

    So the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflator, has come in at 0.2% month-on-month - the consensus had been swinging between 0.2% and 0.3% all week largely because based on the inputs from the PPI and CPI reports, the general sense was that it would come in at somewhere between 0.22 and 0.28% to two decimal places. In the end, it came in at 0.249% - so just a tiny fraction away from a 0.3% print - we need to see it consistently hit 0.17% month-on-month to bring inflation down to 2% year-on-year, so it does remain too hot, but the momentum is encouraging after ... (full story)

what is the news and market's obsession with rate cuts? every slight indication that inflation is slowing is a signal for future rate cuts? could that mean that every slight indication of inflation increase could signal rate increases? could inflation really be a state of mind that only becomes real when others believe that they can or must raise prices? whereas the Fed Bank creates a narrative to manage that with either rates or balance sheet selling or buying?

is there a proven inverse correlation between DXY and equity indices? from visual inspection it appears that DXY's impact on Future's is relative more or less.

if DXY or USD increases in value given a decrease in inflation could that impact stock prices and send them declining in price. not to mention that the market looks over valued from a monthly, weekly, and daily chart.

the 2 and 10 year rates are historically high indicating that currencies are over valued

what could possibly go wrong?
NOT Thinking .com
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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