US core PCE inflation Preview: No deceleration expected in April, favoring higher-for-longer Fed’s stance

Personal income increased $65.3 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in April, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI) —personal income less personal current taxes—increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.1 billion (0.2 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 5). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in April and real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.4 percent and services increased 0.1 percent (tables 3 and 4). table | post: The core PCE price index rose 0.25% in April (it rounded down to 0.2% because it was 0.249%) Jan-March figures were revised down ever so slightly. The 12-month change was 2.75%, a three-year low The 6-month annualized rate was 3.18%, the highest since July pic.twitter.com/boKVU2IxLA post: The 3-month annualized rate was 3.46%, down from the previous two months but still higher than any point in 2H 2023 This report was largely anticipated two weeks ago and won't change much of anything for the near-term Fed outlook of "wait and see."The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed little progress last month Inflation remained sticky in April, as a closely watched measure of price changes was unchanged from the month before, providing yet another reminder of stubborn price pressures. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — a closely watched inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target — rose 0.3% from the month before, resulting in an annual rate of 2.7% that matched March’s gain, according to Commerce Department data. Although Friday’s report served as yet another reminder that slowing down inflation is a bumpy process, the results weren’t a surprise. Economists, by and large, weren’t expecting much of a meaningful shift in the inflation gauges. Both the monthly and annual increases in the overall and core index were projected to be unchanged from March, according to FactSet consensus estimates.