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Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well
From scottgrannis.blogspot.com
Chart #1 shows the results of the March survey of purchasing managers in the service sector (by far the largest part of the economy). It is consistent with the view I've maintained for well over a year, which is that the economy continues to grow at a non-spectacular pace. Chart #2 shows that the number of firms that report paying higher prices continues to decline. This same statistic surprised to the upside in January, thus fueling speculation that maybe the Fed was right to move slowly on rate reductions. But as often happens, sudden jerks in monthly numbers are just flukes and subsequently reversed. Inflation ... (full story)