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  • ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 5.1%

    From prnewswire.com

    Private sector employment increased by 184,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the March ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure and high-frequency view of the private-sector labor market based on actual, anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of ... (full story)

Added at 8:19am

with all this strong data caming out it will end up with fed cutting just two times this year
chaos is just unknown order
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} or not at all at the moment. They simply can’t , if they do , they lose all credibility Watch the Powell interview last Friday
ye i know, missing the right timing of cuts is their priority
chaos is just unknown order
REST in PEACE USDJPY..... 155 is the target now.
Gold, my old favorite is holding its ground, expect it to move higher still.
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} or not at all at the moment. They simply can’t , if they do , they lose all credibility Watch the Powell interview last Friday
Powell said they are going to cut rates this year - were u listening to him??????????????????
they have to cut as they have no choice 8 trillion of US government debt is due to be refinanced in next 12 months - they need lower interest rates to help finance it.
look at this chart with 2 scenarios - no cuts and 1.6 trillion in interest payable - with cuts a lot lower.
Powell will lower to help government out
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Devil in the detail, job changers 10% pay increase, and 5.1% in wages... inflation here we come...

For people who do not understand this, pay increases directly impact the things you buy, as companies will have to increase the prices to keep their profit margins, it's a never ending cycle, and this case a terrible cycle.
Strong employment data

Surprising gains not just in pay but also in the sectors that saw job increases.

The leisure and hospitality sector showed the most significant growth, with 63,000 new jobs. Construction added 33,000. Trade, transportation, and utilities added 29,000 jobs. Strong growth in other sectors too.

While inflation has been cooling, pay is increasing in both goods and services.

The only weaker sector: Professional and business services experienced a reduction of 8,000 jobs.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
No interest rate cuts this year. More pain coming the consumer's way. Trump winning by a landslide!
Quoting MatTrader101
Devil in the detail, job changers 10% pay increase, and 5.1% in wages... inflation here we come... For people who do not understand this, pay increases directly impact the things you buy, as companies will have to increase the prices to keep their profit margins, it's a never ending cycle, and this case a terrible cycle.
100%. Higher oil prices haven't been baked into the inflation numbers yet. A tick up in inflation is coming and the writing is on the wall. Fedspeak has slowly been transitioning from rate cut 'this summer' to rate cut 'later this year'.

Market is pricing in June, Sept, and Dec rate cuts for a total of 75 bps. If we don't get our first rate cut until Sept, I don't see 75 bps in cuts this year.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
Quoting Bakker
No interest rate cuts this year. More pain coming the consumer's way. Trump winning by a landslide!
Agreed Trump needs to win, and cut down the damn spending IMMEDIATELY. Well we can all hope he does, probably won't happen, the money printing machine can't just stop.
Quoting atillaken
REST in PEACE USDJPY..... 155 is the target now.
155? Bypass BOJ intervention? Where 152 and above is a high risk for intervention and Rate cut decision, what is expected from you? Think risk-reward ratio.
These numbers certainly don't look to support the narrative that the current rate levels have sufficiently mollified the labor market expansion.

HOWEVER, I am never at a loss for how far off the "consensus estimates" are for these these ADP numbers (20%+ off 6 of the last 7 months). Then, how far off the ADP numbers are from the Friday NFP numbers (which, themselves don't come close to "consensus estimates" recently). Or, for that matter, how far removed the numbers are (sometimes) from ADP's own revisions. Last month was revised up more than 15k (~10.7%) changing a 9k LOWER number to 6k HIGHER.

The market certainly (hopefully) digs into these a bit deeper than just the topline figures, but still, I shake my head when reactions occur to these crazy figures.
Quoting atillaken
REST in PEACE USDJPY..... 155 is the target now.
Doesn't a target of 155 mean the USD/JPY will be THRIVING? (not dying, as "rest in peace" would indicate)? Perhaps RIP USD/JPY SHORTS in your statement?

Of course, most of us "retail" traders would assume intervention before that point, but that certainly doesn't have to happen.
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} 100%. Higher oil prices haven't been baked into the inflation numbers yet. A tick up in inflation is coming and the writing is on the wall. Fedspeak has slowly been transitioning from rate cut 'this summer' to rate cut 'later this year'. Market is pricing in a June, Sept, and Dec rate cuts for a total of 75 bps. If we don't get our first rate cut until Sept, I don't see 75 bps in cuts this year.
Bostic, generally a dove, expects just one rate cut this year: https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...ng-momentum-it

Lots of rebalancing will need to happen.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: 54.4%
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Quoting atillaken
REST in PEACE USDJPY..... 155 is the target now.
Very soon you will hear them saying we are watching the market with urgency and will take appropriate step ... blah blah blah. They fail to see that speculators are buying into the weakness of their policy enforcement and not the weakness of Yen. IF you don't address the root cause, the speculator will always come back again and again. Furthermore, Fed officials has in the past on multiple occasions advice BOJ to take decisive action and to do it in a 'big bang' approach. But they differ and persist to be continue to be 'gentle' and adopt blah blah blah and now they are feeling the pain. Speculator are now calling their bluff.
all news can be manipulated for intrest and needs (80% news is fake)
Only believe about news in strong trend.
for smart money, "what public believe" that is gain for smart money because "the forex market is zero sum game"
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