Gensler: U.S. Capital Markets and the Public Good

The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of ...

It is a real pleasure to welcome you to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. I thank the National Association for Business Economics, its Cleveland Chapter, Team NEO, David Altig, and Bill Koehler for the opportunity to speak with you about the economy. Dave and I go back a long way – perhaps too long for me to admit to. We worked together when we were both research directors, Dave at the Atlanta Fed and me at the Philadelphia Fed. Dave is a first-rate economist, so I know he will keep me on my toes as he moderates this session. Before we get into today’s question and answer portion, I thought it would be helpful to frame the discussion by offering a few brief remarks about the economy and monetary policy. I will start by reminding everyone that what I say today will be my views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. Economic Developments Substantial progress has been made on the inflation front since inflation peaked in 2022, in the range of 7 to 9 percent, depending on the measure. But inflation is still above our 2 percent objective. PCE inflation is now running about 2-1/2 percent, whether it is measured year-over-year or over the past six months, annualized. And core PCE inflation is running about 2-3/4 percent, measured year-over-year, and near 3 percent, annualized, over the past six months. The monthly inflation readings in January and February came in firmer than the readings over the second half of last year and are a good reminder of what we already knew: that the disinflation process will not be a smooth path back to 2 percent. In my view, the inflation picture has not changed very much s post: Fed’s Mester: Still Expects Fed Can Cut Rates Later This Year Fed’s Mester: Doesn’t See Case to Cut Rates at Next Fed Meeting Fed’s Mester: Fed Policy in ‘Good Place’ to Navigate Risks to Economy Fed’s Mester: Bigger Risk to Policy is Fed Cuts Rates Too Soon post: Fed’s Mester: Revised Forecast For Longer-Run Fed Funds Rate Up To 3% - Sees Labour Market In Better Balance, Expects Higher Unemployment Rate - Risks To Economic Outlook Have Become More Balanced - Does Not Expect Smooth Path Back To 2%