FOMC Minutes: latest GDP report was at 'an unexpectedly strong pace;' consumer spending 'surprised to the upside'

The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Financial conditions continued to tighten, driven by higher yields on Treasury securities as well as by lower equity prices and a stronger dollar, which themselves partly reflected higher interest rates. Because earnings expectations had held up well in recent months, the effect of higher interest rates on equity prices likely took place largely through valuations. The rise since July in yields on longer-dated nominal Treasury securities was mostly attributable to increases in real yields. There were small increases in inflation compensation, but the levels of spot and forward rates were within historical ranges. The manager also noted that survey measures pointed to generally stable inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, and that inflation expectations remained well anchored. Staff analysis and responses from the Open Market Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants suggested that the bulk of the increase since July in the 10-year nominal Treasury yield could be attributed to a higher term premium, though higher policy expectations at longer horizons could also have played a role. The manager also noted that liquidity conditions in the Treasury market had not changed materially since July, suggesting that Treasury market liquidity had not been an important driver of the increase in yields. The manager turned next to expectations for monetary policy. Both market pricing and responses to the Desk's surveys implied that market participants expected that the federal funds rate was at or near its peak and would be held there at least until the June 2024 FOMC meeting; there was a roughly 30 percent probability of a 25 basis point increase at either the December or January FOMC meeting. Regarding balance sheet policy, the surveys showed that respondents had pushed out the date they expected balance sheet runoff to stop, perhaps partly in response to policymakers' communications that balance sheet runoff could continue even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate. The manager then turned to developments in money markets and Desk operations. Balance sheet runoff continued to proceed smoothly over the intermeeting period through reduced holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities. The continued repayment by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation of discount window loans extended to banks that were placed into receivership also contributed to reduced Federal Reserve assets. On the liabilities side of the balance sheet, usage of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility declined further, as money market mutual funds continued to absorb new Treasury bill issuance and appeared to increase investment in the private market for repurchase agreements (repos) as well. Overall, the reduced usage of the ON RRP facility released more reserves than the reduction in Federal Reserve assets and the increase in the Treasury General Account absorbed. On post: FOMC MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS AGAIN AGREE MORE TIGHTENING MAY BE NEEDED IF AGGRESSIVE INFLATION PERSISTENT #FOMC #minutes #economy post: *FED MINUTES: ALL ON FOMC AGREE TO `PROCEED CAREFULLY' ON RATES *ALL ON FOMC SAW RATES REMAINING RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIME post: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS NOTED THAT INFLATION HAD MODERATED OVER THE PAST YEAR BUT REMAINED UNACCEPTABLY HIGH AND WELL ABOVE 2% TARGET. post: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS NOTED THERE HAD BEEN ONLY LIMITED PROGRESS IN BRINGING DOWN CORE SERVICES EX HOUSING INFLATION.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury, through the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and IRS Criminal Investigation (CI), has taken unprecedented action to hold Binance Holdings Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, Binance) accountable for violations of the U.S. anti-money laundering (AML) and sanctions laws that protect American national security and the integrity of the international financial system. Binance is the world’s largest virtual currency exchange, responsible for an estimated 60% of centralized virtual currency spot trading. Today, Binance settled with FinCEN and OFAC for violations of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and apparent violations of multiple sanctions programs. The violations include failure to implement programs to prevent and report suspicious transactions with terrorists — including Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) — ransomware attackers, money launderers, and other criminals, as well as matching trades between U.S. users and those in sanctioned jurisdictions like Iran, North Korea, Syria, and the Crimea region of Ukraine. By failing to comply with AML and sanctions obligations, Binance enabled a range of illicit actors to transact freely on the platform. Today’s settlements are part of a global agreement simultaneous with Binance’s resolution of related matters with the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). “Binance turned a blind eye to its legal obligations in the pursuit of profit. Its willful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cybercriminals, and child abusers through its platform,” said Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen. “Today’s historic penalties and monitorship to ensure compliance with U.S. law and regulations mark a milestone for the virtual currency industry. Any institution, wherever located, that wants to reap the benefits of the U.S. financial system must also play by the rules that keep us all safe from terrorists, foreign adversaries, and crime, or face the consequences.” post: US TREASURY'S YELLEN: FROM NOW ON TREASURY TO HAVE ACCESS TO BINANCE SYSTEMS AND ACCOUNTS TO MONITOR COMPLIANCE WHILE BINANCE SEVERS US CONNECTIONS #cryptocurrency #USTreasury $DoJ