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  • Personal Income and Outlays, August 2023

    From bea.gov

    Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent (table 5). Real DPI decreased 0.2 percent in August and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.2 percent and services ... (full story)

Added at 8:39am

  • The Fed’s benchmark inflation gauge dipped lower in August

    From cnn.com

    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed price increases cooled considerably last month, according to new Commerce Department data released Friday that also showed a slowdown in consumer spending. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes gas and food prices, rose 3.9% for the 12 months ended in August. It’s the lowest annual increase that index has seen in two years and is a positive step toward the Fed’s target of 2% inflation. On a monthly basis, core PCE grew 0.1%. The overall PCE index, which includes the more volatile food and energy ... (full story)

Personal income has decreased and expenditure has increased more. Income and expenditure is difference more. Financial conditions is very bad of USA people at present. I expect USD/JPY will go slide. There may be 100 more pips down if Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI come with negative data,
Quoting Ftmofx
Personal income has decreased and expenditure has increased more. Income and expenditure is difference more. Financial conditions is very bad of USA people at present. I expect USD/JPY will go slide. There may be 100 more pips down if Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI come with negative data,
yea, i already post my ptz thread early in the morning yield is decreasing so i am also expecting down lets see.
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
Quoting Ftmofx
Personal income has decreased and expenditure has increased more. Income and expenditure is difference more. Financial conditions is very bad of USA people at present. I expect USD/JPY will go slide. There may be 100 more pips down if Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Chicago PMI come with negative data,
Yes, but bad US numbers are bad for the world's economy. Traders might therefore buy USD, XAU, JPY, CHF and sell EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD, etc...

I suspect USD to go up as well as gold , CHF and JPY if not paired with USD which I believe would be kind of "flatish"

Because so far we are on a "risk off" scernario.
News :blah blah blah...... Price is king, he was already talking for days.
The measure of intelligence is the ability to adapt!
Quoting shape
News :blah blah blah...... Price is king, he was already talking for days.
Ok, I am a big price action fan.
But your post doesn't mean anything if you don't share what the king is preaching to you..., Since days nonetheless...
gold already pick the recent LH liquidity, maybe gold will fall now but wait for the confirmation.
I strongly expect for gold to finally rebound after being absolutely pummelled over the last 5 days, next big news is the 2:45pm and 3pm GMT+1
Quoting MatTrader101
I strongly expect for gold to finally rebound after being absolutely pummelled over the last 5 days, next big news is the 2:45pm and 3pm GMT+1
They had to close the Gap. Now, they can do whatever they want.
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} They had to close the Gap. Now, they can do whatever they want.
They ?
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} They ?
Yes, they.
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Yes, they.


Thank you much for the very eloquent answer !

How stupid of me that I thought you would tell who "they" is.

Allow me to rephrase my question please ;

Who are "they" ?
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} They ?
Market makers
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} Thank you much for the very eloquent answer !
Research!
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Research!
I did ask you because I was wondering, wasn't that research ? Because research and learning I did.
I guess it was before you couldn't answer.
Quoting wizzytech100
{quote} Market makers
Well if they are, they would go against what retail traders would do, selling USD.
We can't blame them to go against most of their clients, as a market maker, because most of their clients are dumb retail money. Nothing illegal, they just get their bread because as most retail traders loose, it is easy to create a market by averaging the orders, exposition, loss and profit so no actual exposition on the market is needed or very little.
They don't need to because most loose money, just sometime they might need to balance the orders, yet actually order in the market to edge but nothing close to banks and hedge funds
Also, which I confess, I do not know. But how big are those market makers anyway compared to banks and hedge funds ?
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} Well if they are, they would go against what retail traders would do, selling USD.
Majority were actually Short USD when this rise of USD happened in these few weeks.
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} I did ask you because I was wondering, wasn't that research ? Because research and learning I did. I guess it was before you couldn't answer.
It is, fine!
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} Well if they are, they would go against what retail traders would do, selling USD. We can't blame them to go against most of their clients, as a market maker, because most of their clients are dumb retail money. Nothing illegal, they just get their bread because as most retail traders loose, it is easy to create a market by averaging the orders, exposition, loss and profit so no actual exposition on the market is needed. Also, which I confess, I do not know. But how big are those market makers anyway compared to banks and hedge funds ?
Yes,they want your money before the trend changes or continues
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Majority were actually Short USD when this rise of USD happened in these few weeks.
Exactly !

Best way to buy huge amounts of USD without much slippage is to buy the sell.
Quoting wizzytech100
{quote} Yes,they want your money before the trend changes or continues
Yes, the big players wait for dips or tops because it's where most of the dumb orders are. They then can be counter part which allows them to unload their very big orders with minimal slippage.
So at 8:15 for no apparent reason USD decides to wake up and start sinking everything??? WTF wow man
So USD/JPY Up trend line safe this week
Quoting edeslu
So at 8:15 for no apparent reason USD decides to wake up and start sinking everything??? WTF wow man
US government shutdown will be decided today. Very apparent reason!
Yeah I was completely wrong on Gold, very interesting to see this kind of price action, I am a strong believer on this that there is a massive manipulation on gold by big banks
Quoting MatTrader101
Yeah I was completely wrong on Gold, very interesting to see this kind of price action, I am a strong believer on this that there is a massive manipulation on gold by big banks
It is and I'm still waiting for he big news to be released to either kill Gold today or skyrocket it up.
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It is and I'm still waiting for he big news to be released to either kill Gold today or skyrocket it up.
On the Government shutdown....or...?? Share with us brother Wraith
Quoting edeslu
{quote} On the Government shutdown....or...?? Share with us brother Wraith
Yes!
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} Yes!
Well hot damn , it's looming ...let us see if things go our way...
Quoting TheWraith
{quote} It is and I'm still waiting for he big news to be released to either kill Gold today or skyrocket it up.
I am also having a close look at gold, waiting to see the daily close but I am waiting for a long.
Doesn't look good so far, gonna have to wait monday close.
Quoting MatTrader101
Yeah I was completely wrong on Gold, very interesting to see this kind of price action, I am a strong believer on this that there is a massive manipulation on gold by big banks
I think strong USD has much to do with it.
Quoting LDTrading
{quote} I think strong USD has much to do with it.
yea but why? The news that came out today wasn't strong enough to just flip-flop things to THIS extent. Greatly agree this some price manipulation. By all accounts Gold was going up - everything was. Then at 8:15, USD took over and started sinking everything....geeesh
Quoting edeslu
{quote} yea but why? The news that came out today wasn't strong enough to just flip-flop things to THIS extent. Greatly agree this some price manipulation. By all accounts Gold was going up - everything was. Then at 8:15, USD took over and started sinking everything....geeesh
It's because bad US numbers means badder datas to come for the rest of the world's economy.
USA being the first economic power, trading being about anticipation, most money backed up USD because they anticipate a drop in all the "risk on currencies", USD being a risk off currency, like CHF, JPY.
Gold also, in theory, but so far price action has proven otherwise... Well, that is trading nonetheless...
Why retails traders lose

EXHIBIT A: This thread
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
Quoting edeslu
{quote} yea but why? The news that came out today wasn't strong enough to just flip-flop things to THIS extent. Greatly agree this some price manipulation. By all accounts Gold was going up - everything was. Then at 8:15, USD took over and started sinking everything....geeesh
When things in the US are smelly, it's like dominos. So traders switch their holdings to USD nominated assets or currencies because it's gonna be safer than holding any other currency where the bad US economy will hit. Which is basically the whole world.
If things are economicaly fishy in the USA then it's gonna hit most of the World. It's easy to understand that the number 1 economical power will be the least affected, so traders are dropping others currencies to buy USD
Remember that profits in trading are made by anticipation...
Quoting edeslu
{quote} yea but why? The news that came out today wasn't strong enough to just flip-flop things to THIS extent. Greatly agree this some price manipulation. By all accounts Gold was going up - everything was. Then at 8:15, USD took over and started sinking everything....geeesh
When things in the US are smelly, it's like dominos. So traders switch their holdings to USD nominated assets or currencies because it's gonna be safer than holding any other currency where the bad US economy will hit. Which is basically the whole world.
Quoting Expo33
Why retails traders lose EXHIBIT A: This thread
Exhibit B : Peoples like Expo33.

Exhibit C : Disregard exhibit A.

Exhibit D : Profits in trading are only made by anticipation.
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