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  • Demand weakness weighs further on US private sector business activity in November

    From pmi.spglobal.com

    November saw a solid contraction in business activity across the US private sector, according to latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.3 in November, down from 48.2 at the start of the fourth quarter. The rate of contraction signalled was the sharpest since August and among the ... (full story)

All bad news today but especially the unemployment numbers. If FED keep raising interest into this it will end bad. FED will pivot sooner rather than later and economy will get back on track?
Now, all eyes are indeed on JPY as recession is literally around the corner.

HOWEVER, this doesn't mean that USD will continue to depreciate against other currencies. Once recession hits USD will destroy everything on its path except JPY and CHF as was the case in 2007-08.
I take my bet that they will. FED will verbally signal a further tightening but in reality rates want be (much) higher than the current forward rate. But lets see.
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Quoting Banditten
I take my bet that they will. FED will verbally signal a further tightening but in reality rates want be (much) higher than the current forward rate. But lets see.
what you are predicting lies directly against what history would suggest.. I would not be so sure the Feds pivot their stance until inflation comes down, which is certainly not the case.
I hope my market shorts get hit before FED minutes, I'm seeing market disappointment after it.
In any case it will be interesting to see what happens in a couple of hours.
2 yr is trading around 4.5.
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Maybe if corporations stopped using every excuse under the sun to raise prices demand would go back up.
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