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  • The Employment Situation -- July 2022

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, ... (full story)

Added at 8:33am

  • Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market

    From cnbc.com

    Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying signs that the economic recovery is losing steam, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively. Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago. Those numbers add fuel to an inflation picture that already has consumer prices rising at their fastest rate since the early 1980s. Markets initially reacted negatively to the report, with Dow ... (full story)

Big NFP, Buy with big lot
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.73.191
OMG!!!!
so, inflation is fake news?
people actually have a disposal income to spend and spend
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:48am Aug 5, 2022 8:35am | Edited at 8:48am
Strong NFP Data, Unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings m/m should be strong sentiment for USD today ... Strong NFP Data, Unemploment should be strong sentiment for USD today .... If the positive Strong sentiment is deflected with rumors, the price of price manipulation (Very discouraged, market crime) .....
but must remember market rules:
1. The market is never wrong
2. If the market is wrong then remember point 1
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.X.217.83
Quoting Ftmofx
Big NFP, Buy with big lot
RIP
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.238.148
Not a big surprise if you consider our world today. Everything you buy on a daily basis to live, has sky rocketed in price. So some people who may have quit working early, are realizing they are running out of money, and need to go back to work. Credit card spending at record highs, savings at record lows. Get back to work !
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.233.131
Quoting zamans98
so, inflation is fake news? people actually have a disposal income to spend and spend
During COVID times, people saved… now they are spending before prices go even higher.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.32.35
RIP to those buyers
RIP to the EU buys XD as i always say, never fight the true direction & trend.
This isn't the recession
Fed have no option to raise rates again but by how much? At least 0.5 & quite possibly 0.75.
Quoting sfrankenfx
RIP to the EU buys XD as i always say, never fight the true direction & trend.
how u can find trend, kindly send me indicator which u use
So does anybody agree with me now that there is no recession in the US?

1. Higher Average Hourly Earnings
+
2. Higher Non-Farm Employment Change
+
3. Lower Unemployment Rate
_________________________________

= NO RECESSION
_________________________________

Happy trading and good luck.
rip buyer eu
Boom economy
But who said that there is a recession? There isn't now. But it will come. Just because Fed raised 3 times the rates it doesn't mean it has to come right now. This takes time
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This combined with the lower than expected Canadian data (although marginal) was the perfect storm for USD this morning. Held strong until the market opened as well but thankful for predictable pullbacks otherwise that would have been a tough position for me for a while.
FED Bulard is true. He said that inflation is down and under control.
Quoting Robert1991
But who said that there is a recession? There isn't now. But it will come. Just because Fed raised 3 times the rates it doesn't mean it has to come right now. This takes time
I thing a little bit explanation is needed.
Here it comes:
There will be no recession and here is why: These rate hikes are aggressive and are meant to cool down the economy. It will be more difficult to loan money. The industry will slow down and the usual over-production of things will be reduced as well. This means one very important thing for the inflation and the fight against it and this is - the demand for energy will decrease as the economy slows down, which in turn means energy prices will fall down. The result of this is that the main production cost will go down. This will drag the prices down with already strong dollar which is the opposite of inflation.

This is how the FED (unfortunately disliked by many around here) will get down the inflation and normalize the economy altogether.

I hope this helps.
The figures are actually misleading. Many companies are re-employing staff post Covid. People are earning income again but not necessarily any more than they were pre lockdown - so of course the figures will be higher than the previous month but it is not as rosy as it seems. Give it a few months and the higher interest rates coupled with inflation will start to bite hard.
only Putin and China want the USA and the European Union to experience an economic recession .... wkwk ....
If the Fed can engineer a soft landing it'll be impressive .

Data lags rate hikes
Quoting NotAtrader
So does anybody agree with me now that there is no recession in the US? 1. Higher Average Hourly Earnings + 2. Higher Non-Farm Employment Change + 3. Lower Unemployment Rate _________________________________ = NO RECESSION _________________________________ Happy trading and good luck.
OH there you are XD. How are those EU buys going. LOL
I think with these numbers we have to calculate with the aging society and the decreasing birthrate. I think now the western culture reached that point when even if we don't open new jobs we will see a decreasing unemployment rate because of the decreasing available workforce.
Just like Canada. They lost a lot of people from the active workforce market but the unemployment rate not even moved.
Quoting sfrankenfx
{quote} OH there you are XD. How are those EU buys going. LOL
Hi LOL. How are you LOL?

My EURUSD longs positions are closed long ago with a decent profit. I don't even remember that anymore as this is totally normal in my trading environment. I wonder why you remember something that you have nothing to do with? Jealous? Don't worry man. I told you I will use your money with a taste and to a sophisticated things. Thanks for your financial support. Appreciated.

Bye LOL
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Hi LOL. How are you LOL? My EURUSD longs positions are closed long ago with a decent profit. I don't even remember that anymore as this is totally normal in my trading environment. I wonder why you remember something that you have nothing to do with? Jealous? Don't worry man. I told you I will use your money with a taste and to a sophisticated things. Thanks for your financial support. Appreciated. Bye LOL
You keep saying 'use my money' yet i have swing sell positions starting from 1.1860 and running with 10+ added since then. So, tell me, how will you use my money when in fact you are the one that has helped provide the liquidity for me?!
And i remember you because you are constantly abusing people with your false propaganda and aggressive technical & fundamental advice that proves to be wrong each time.

Nice try, seems like you have run out of some-what decent insults XD.
Quoting sfrankenfx
{quote} You keep saying 'use my money' yet i have swing sell positions starting from 1.1860 and running with 10+ added since then. So, tell me, how will you use my money when in fact you are the one that has helped provide the liquidity for me?! And i remember you because you are constantly abusing people with your false propaganda and aggressive technical & fundamental advice that proves to be wrong each time. Nice try, seems like you have run out of some-what decent insults XD.
Again I don't know what your problem is. I had my longs and I closed one by one all in profit. My entries are documented and in fact the EURUSD price is still higher than my initial entry. So you are just being provocative and you are looking for trouble.

If you make profit that's fine with me. That's why we are traders - to make profit and make a living on trading. However people like you being around and bashing everyone who says makes profit, are nothing more than assholes and deserve nothing more than abuse. Just continue digging and that's what you'll get again.

I never in my life doubted someone saying he makes profit. Never. The main reason why we are here is to make profits and as I said many times - the day I fail to do so I will stop trading.

Stop being provocative and you won't regret your behavior. Otherwise you're looking for trouble and that's what you'll get
Glad to see the usual confused and toxic forex community, it almost feels like things are only going to get better (maybe it is). Barely traded this week because of NFP. Got 1 win and 1 BE. Anyone trying hard to trade this week should know better. Never trade the news, don't even look at it (let alone trade it) and focus on the macro only. Reports like these only signify the likeliness of raised interest rates, that's it, don't think about it or even bother understanding it unless you are qualified too. Even the qualified can't tell the future so why bother? Sit on your hands, wait for great PA only. Saved me bunch of times.
Quoting sfrankenfx
Hidden
You are wrong my friend. Nice try, but useless try to pain me as a losing trader and a bad adviser.

I did not advice people to hold their long. I advised people to take 66% profit and secure the rest with a BE. Everyone who followed my trade can confirm that as it is documented in my post history as well and you can't change that. Further I said that EURUSD may (just may) go down to parity again but NOT for a sustained move below parity. And yes the main downtrend for EURUSD is over and more mediocre traders begin to agree with that except you.
And again if you don't believe that someone makes living on trading it's because your trading experiences are terrible and you can never believe making money on trading is possible. That explains your behavior and you jealousy. Stop trading and do something else whatever else you can as it looks as though trading is not you strongest side.

I said before and I say it again - believe whatever the hell you want. You trade your money, not mine. Now leave me alone. I have no time for feeding trolls.
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} You are wrong my friend. Nice try, but useless try to pain me as a losing trader and a bad adviser. I did not advice people to hold their long. I advised people to take 66% profit and secure the rest with a BE. Everyone who followed my trade can confirm that as it is documented in my post history as well and you can't change that. Further I said that EURUSD may (just may) go down to parity again but NOT for a sustained move below parity. And yes the main downtrend for EURUSD is over and more mediocre traders begin to agree with that except...
You keep saying that I am the one that is a terrible trader yet I have been successfully following the trend of EU since the very beginnign of the downtrend-- and yet you are still so 100% sure that the trend is over.
Now you are lying, because you DID advise folks to hold their positions and to add more buys at a H4 time frame high, which is terrible advice. And i do hope that you are not an educator, because the technical levels in which you were advising people to enter and buy was just dumb, and clueless. I remember exactly what you said, which is my point exactly you are not only useless and ill-informed, but you are now lying your way out of it.
You are always one of the first people to comment every thread, and are consistently insulting people that don't agree with you bad advice, calling them names/swearing. Yet you claim to 'have no time feeding trolls', when you are literally the BIGGEST troll on FF.

You're just hurt that your bullish view in EU was/is wrong. Just admit defeat and troll back to your cave downstairs in your basement. Ha ha!
JPY pair is intoxicated more after Flashing NFP.
wtf, why pair yen weakening too fast
Quoting Geriliel
wtf, why pair yen weakening too fast
its a junk currency my friend
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} In fairness sfranken . I think Notatrader has been great of late .I had a few words with him and I think he's digested them and taken them onboard . Please there's no need to keep the grudge going . You did initiate it today so let's just leave it go . Thanks . No need to respond
Amen brother. Thanks
We all have something to learn from each other. You are my example of being a man and being able to move on and become a friend with one previously considered idiot.

I hope you do well bud. Happy trading and good luck.
way too hot
The market is waiting to break the resistance level 135.500 of USD/JPY to go Greedy level 140.
Quoting Vancarbon
Thanks Notatrader . There's room for all opinions in this world each viewing from a different angle . It's how we address these opinions by discussion and educating that we meet in the middle ground . Keep your composure and respect to you for not being aggressive today and since we spoke


Sometimes I just try to imagine the behavior of the people who've been quarreling like hell with each other if they meet in person. Think what a different picture that would be. We could tell jokes and laugh. We could have a drink and have fun. I wish people could stop provoking each other. There is so much destructive behavior around here.
Happy trading and nice weekend brother.
Quoting Ftmofx
FED Bulard is true. He said that inflation is down and under control.
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Quoting Guest
{quote} During COVID times, people saved… now they are spending before prices go even higher.
You sir/madame just described the definition of STAGFLATION
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} I thing a little bit explanation is needed. Here it comes: There will be no recession and here is why: These rate hikes are aggressive and are meant to cool down the economy. It will be more difficult to loan money. The industry will slow down and the usual over-production of things will be reduced as well. This means one very important thing for the inflation and the fight against it and this is - the demand for energy will decrease as the economy slows down, which in turn means energy prices will fall down. The result of this is that the...
While I agree with a lot of your assumptions I respectfully disagree about the USA winding up in a recession. There are many types; mild, moderate, severe, generational (1920's).

Given the amount of inflation the FED has no choice but to raise rates. That will kill the housing market (it needed it anyway) but at the same time it will push rent prices higher still. Once businesses realize that their sales are suffering the job cuts will begin in October/November.

Now if energy costs get under control and the unemployment doesn't go past 10% we should be fine but frankly every time the FED has hiked it overcompensates and this time will be no different.
  • Post #43
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:37pm Aug 5, 2022 1:05pm | Edited at 1:37pm
Quoting sfrankenfx
{quote} You keep saying that I am the one that is a terrible trader yet I have been successfully following the trend of EU since the very beginnign of the downtrend-- and yet you are still so 100% sure that the trend is over. Now you are lying, because you DID advise folks to hold their positions and to add more buys at a H4 time frame high, which is terrible advice. And i do hope that you are not an educator, because the technical levels in which you were advising people to enter and buy was just dumb, and clueless. I remember exactly what you...
Since you prefer to bite and accuse despite that I am asking you to check the facts before ranting against me, I can provide you with facts right from the history of my posting. There you can see that I did not advice anyone to keep longs and to put more longs. I said what I would do after a deep market research if the result of it suggested that. The links to my post history below, show how wrong you are and that for some reason you lie and you are distorting the facts.

People need to know who is wrong and who is right because many people put their real money in live trading. That's why I think it's necessary to post links to the truth.

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...3#post14067910

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...s#post14070342

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...3#post14067742

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/11...s#post14063683

The funny thing is that the EURUSD exchange rate is still much higher than both of my entries yet you insist that I was giving dangerous advises

Further you can see exactly where I made my entries and where I made my exits in addition to my explanation as to why I took 66% profit as well as explanation to what I will do with the rest 33%. Everything supported by my chart .images
Everything is documented with time of the events and explanation around my reasoning why I do this as well as educational example of RSI and MACD divergence supported by images of exactly what I did and how I did it. Trades are done, sessions are closed, profits are taken.

Strange you still deny the facts and accuse me of giving dangerous advises which sets you in a light of being provocative and looking for trouble.

Still want to change the history?
If you have some reason to criticize me for something then do it, but don't ever show a doubt that others making profit as this only means that you do not believe it's possible to make profits in trading, which means you are not a good trader.

With this I hope this discussion is now closed and you can learn something from " Vancarbon" and from me too.
Quoting fxsport
{quote} While I agree with a lot of your assumptions I respectfully disagree about the USA winding up in a recession. There are many types; mild, moderate, severe, generational (1920's). Given the amount of inflation the FED has no choice but to raise rates. That will kill the housing market (it needed it anyway) but at the same time it will push rent prices higher still. Once businesses realize that their sales are suffering the job cuts will begin in October/November. Now if energy costs get under control and the unemployment doesn't go past 10%...
Well I can agree with you to some degree, but the line between real mild and moderate recession and only a recession symptoms is veeeery blurry. It's a relatively unclear perception of the reality and it all depends on the individual, his own wealthiness and last but not least his/her political orientation.

So let's wait and see how will this unfold. I believe we won't have to wait awfully long before everything becomes clear.
The beauty of trading is that we all make money. The long, the short and the pigs get slaughtered.
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Sometimes I just try to imagine the behavior of the people who've been quarreling like hell with each other if they meet in person. Think what a different picture that would be. We could tell jokes and laugh. We could have a drink and have fun. I wish people could stop provoking each other. There is so much destructive behavior around here. Happy trading and nice weekend brother.
please read what you wrote its a sure sign that you did not mean it
The true employment situation in USA:


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That is official data and line is turning in wrong direction,while never recovering to pre-Covid level.
Only reason it was so good is because everyone already participating has had to get a second job to fight inflation!!! It hasn’t slowed only gotten worse
Quoting jordanvic
{quote} its a junk currency my friend
I trade another pair yen currency,but this number is too far from expected and economy isn't good
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