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Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Avoids Sub-30 Despite a Seventh BTC Loss

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Aug 5, 2022, 01:20 UTC

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index rose to 31/100 today, the upside coming despite the current BTC downtrend. US nonfarm payrolls are in focus today.

BTC/USD falls for a seventh session.

Key Insights:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) saw red for a seventh consecutive day, with an afternoon sell-off sending BTC into negative territory.
  • The downside came despite the NASDAQ 100 ending the day in positive territory, with jitters over Fed monetary policy and the US economy weighing.
  • The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index inched up from 30/100 to 31/100 this morning. The upside came despite BTC falling for a seventh consecutive session.

On Thursday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.76%. Following a 0.33% decline from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $22,652. The bearish session saw BTC extend its losing streak to seven sessions. BTC also ended the day at sub-$23,000 for the third session in a row.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to a high of $23,229 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,395, BTC slid to a late low of $22,418 before making a move.

BTC briefly fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,475 before a late partial recovery to $22,652.

Uncertainty over the US economic outlook and Fed monetary policy left BTC on the back foot. Weak US labor market numbers on Thursday weighed ahead of today’s all-important nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures.

Today’s stats will likely decide the magnitude of the Fed’s September rate hike, with riskier assets favoring a 50-basis point hike.

On Thursday, the NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.41%, while the Dow (-0.26%) and the S&P500 (-0.08%) saw red.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 59 points.

NASDAQ correlation
BTC-NASDAQ 050822 5 Minute Chart

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Rose to 31/100 Despite BTC Pullback

Today, the Fear & Greed Index increased from 30/100 to 31/100. Following an unexpected increase to 34/100 on Wednesday, another bitcoin decline failed to weigh on investor sentiment.

Fear & Greed Index remains steady.
Fear & Greed 050822

The Index movements suggest some optimism surrounding a crypto market that remains cautious over the Fed and the US Economic outlook.

For the bitcoin bulls, the Index needs to move back towards 40/100 and the neutral zone to deliver BTC support.

On July 30, the Index had stood at 42/100 to briefly border the neutral zone that starts at 46/100.

Avoiding a return to sub-30/100 remains BTC positive, with an Index move through to 46/100 likely to bring $30,000 into view.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.11% to $22,649. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $22,591 before rising to a high of $22,683.

BTC finds early support
BTCUSD 050822 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to move through the $22,764 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,116 and the Thursday high of $23,229.

BTC would need a bullish afternoon session to support a return to $23,000.

An extended rally would test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,575 and resistance at $24,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,388.

Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,305 into play.

In the event of an extended sell-off, BTC would likely test the Second Major Support Level at $21,956 before any recovery.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,144.

BTC support levels in play
BTCUSD 050822 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,535.

The 50-day narrowed to the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA closing in on the 200-day EMA, the signals were negative for BTC.

A fall through the 200-day EMA, currently at $22,535, would bring S1 into play. However, moving back through the 100-day EMA, currently at $22,728, would bring the Major Resistance Levels and the 50-day EMA ($23,050) into play.

EMAs bearish
BTCUSD 050822 4 Hourly Chart

Looking at the trends, BTC would need a move through the July high of $24,619 and $25,000 to target the June high of $31,956. A bullish cross of the 100-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at the June high.

From $31,200, BTC should have a clear run at the May high of $40,004. BTC needs to hold above the 50-day EMA to support the near-term bullish trend.

For the bears, the June 18 low of $17,601 would be the next target, with a fall through the July low of $18,768 likely to test investor resilience.

Trends
BTCUSD 050822 Trend Analysis

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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