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  • US August CPI: Is Inflation Finally Under Control?

    From orbex.com

    The Fed’s policy outlook (including their tapering schedule) depends on an expectation that the latest high levels of inflation will moderate by the end of the year. This is one of the key factors determining when they are likely to raise rates. The general idea is that if inflation gets under control in the “near term”, then the Fed will taper before raising rates. However, if inflation stays way above their accepted range, then not only could they bring the hike forward, but it could actually occur before the taper. Last week we had some news that could be an indication that inflation will continue to move ... (full story)

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  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2021 8:03am Sep 14, 2021 8:03am
  •  BaliBoyz80
  • | Joined Mar 2020 | Status: Member | 510 Comments
maybe no tapering this year, other country not well prepare for economy effect if usa do tapering.
 
 
  • Post #2
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:08am Sep 14, 2021 8:08am
  •  yudhaindra
  • | Joined Aug 2021 | Status: Member | 6 Comments
Just plan ur trade, trade ur plan
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:13am Sep 14, 2021 8:13am
  •  Prof.Trader
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2018 | 714 Comments
The Fed need tapering this year for controlling The Fed Target on inflation on 2%.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:21am Sep 14, 2021 8:21am
  •  fxsport
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,477 Comments
The FED NEEDS to stop the bond purchases - other countries have already begun the taper; Chairman Powell what's the hold up?
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:33am Sep 14, 2021 8:33am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.38.189
The Fed can't stop. Too much debt. Needs to keep going. Weak inflation. Taper postponed now. 2022. USD short.
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:41am Sep 14, 2021 8:41am
  •  TraderGER
  • | Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 170 Comments
I consider the reported values to be fake and will be corrected next time at the latest.
Not understandable for me
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Sep 14, 2021 8:51am Sep 14, 2021 8:51am
  •  Will123
  • | Joined Aug 2021 | Status: Member | 15 Comments
Quoting fxsport
Disliked
The FED NEEDS to stop the bond purchases - other countries have already begun the taper; Chairman Powell what's the hold up?
Ignored
Not yet.. australia not yet.. they delayed to next year feb and need to see how their economic data do..
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Edited at 9:23am Sep 14, 2021 9:13am | Edited at 9:23am
  •  hans91
  • | Joined Jul 2018 | Status: Member | 51 Comments
Quoting Prof.Trader
Disliked
The Fed need tapering this year for controlling The Fed Target on inflation on 2%.
Ignored
Fed can accept it even if reach 7-8%, so no tapering.
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Sep 14, 2021 9:24am Sep 14, 2021 9:24am
  •  fxsport
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,477 Comments
Quoting hans91
Disliked
{quote} Fed can accept it even if reach 7-8%.
Ignored
I KNOW the FED can - Average Americans can not.

Inflation at 7% will ruin the economy as people run out of income for disposible items. Housing, food, transportation and clothes will take up the average American's income leaving them to go into debt or simply stop spending and the economy grinds to a halt.
 
1
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2021 9:25am Sep 14, 2021 9:25am
  •  fxsport
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,477 Comments
Quoting Will123
Disliked
{quote} Not yet.. australia not yet.. they delayed to next year feb and need to see how their economic data do..
Ignored
I stand corrected about Australia. However the EU has begun tapering as well as others.

The economic data in the USA do not justify FED bond purchases.
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Sep 14, 2021 9:37am Sep 14, 2021 9:37am
  •  hans91
  • | Joined Jul 2018 | Status: Member | 51 Comments
Quoting fxsport
Disliked
{quote} I KNOW the FED can - Average Americans can not. Inflation at 7% will ruin the economy as people run out of income for disposible items. Housing, food, transportation and clothes will take up the average American's income leaving them to go into debt or simply stop spending and the economy grinds to a halt.
Ignored
then one of possible reason why fed delay tapering because their members include powell had invested their stocks to get more profit in a long time as long delta covid-19 surge in US, not sure but it's my assumptions.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2021 1:59pm Sep 14, 2021 1:59pm
  •  Prof.Trader
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2018 | 714 Comments
Quoting hans91
Disliked
{quote} Fed can accept it even if reach 7-8%, so no tapering.
Ignored
Maybe this month, The Fed will not tapering.
But still there are October, November, Desember or at least March 2022.
So, there are so many month chances for The Fed will TAPERING.

The Fed just need strong labour market (Good NFP Data), low unemployment rate and high inflation (above 2%) to do it.
For now, only strong labour market needed.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2021 3:12pm Sep 14, 2021 3:12pm
  •  fxsport
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,477 Comments
People remember this :

Tapering is not a rate hike/increase. The two are mutually exclusive events.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Sep 14, 2021 3:13pm Sep 14, 2021 3:13pm
  •  fxsport
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 2,477 Comments
Quoting hans91
Disliked
{quote} then one of possible reason why fed delay tapering because their members include powell had invested their stocks to get more profit in a long time as long delta covid-19 surge in US, not sure but it's my assumptions.
Ignored
While sad this is probably true.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Sep 15, 2021 6:23am Sep 15, 2021 6:23am
  •  alps99
  • | Joined Jun 2018 | Status: Member | 1 Comment
I think you guys misunderstood the situation. I think high rate inflation is a one time spike, just like the one after GFC and then inflation rate tumbled.

Yes during the spike it freaks people out, but the things people should really worry about is stagnant wages, low rate of employment/population, etc. Yeah they keep Unemployment number on the front page, but never mentioned total employment has been actually falling since 2008.
Yes there's a story about labour shortage here and there due to higher labor cost, but if the economy really in a good form, companies will easily find it's more profitable to hire someone at high wage in exchange for even more revenue rather than cut him off.

Ok prices will not return to old level, but at least will not increase at high rate in a substantial fashion (like 2-3 years at 4-5%).

In my opinion, price increase partly due to supply side. And there's nothing a lot of money chasing here. It's supply shortage + people are buying stuff with their saving. Think about it. Most of people after pandemic see their financial condition worse than before 2020, but still they are forced to purchased necessary stuffs.
If their saving is depleting now then how/where substantial high demand leads to future substantial inflation? We are exchange our future consumption for emergency consumption during the pandemic.

And also, there's also a misconception about so-called tapering. The Fed slowdown Treasury purchase, so what? Banks are tired of the Fed keeps taking Treasury from them and gives them useless "Reserve"; now the Fed slowdown that process. It's neither good or bad.
And history shows us that market (long-term rate, which's benchmark for lending rate) really don't care about what the Fed does. If it does, long-term rate would moves hand in hand with short-term rate all the time. In reality, it doesn't.

So whatever the Fed does, it will not change the reality in Mainstreet.
 
 
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.175.255
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Sep 14, 2021 7:46am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 15  /  Views: 6,055
  • Linked events:
    US Core CPI m/m
    US CPI m/m
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