Good morning, pip_daddy and all

Thank you for the question.

A very good question that is also on many other readers thoughts. I will address this question in great detail tonight as it is part of planned flow.

In regards to fundamentals, do you believe that fundamental data effects the movement of the markets or would you say that the fundamental data is already included in the movement of price?

Yes, a good news can trigger a sharp price fluctuation as soon as it is broadcasted but how long does a sharp price fluctuation last?

To answer myself, the amount of time that particular news effects the movement of the whole market is more or less a dot in infinite space and time.

I have invested alot of money into updates of fundamental news release, economic data and personal economic alert reports from reknowned economists.

Believe me when I say that all the vast information (which sometimes is too technical to fully understand to most readers) they provide is being 'said' by the market already.

There is a reknowned economist whom is affiliated closely with a very large international finance management who sends her personal insights on a monthly basis to selected contacts. I appreciate her efforts and without any disrespect on her efforts, she is just reiterating what market is showing in terms and expressions synthesized by so called qualified individuals (humans) of the industry. Market is above and beyond all that.

I applaud at successful news traders but hope they spend some time to visit their roots and analysis their success. It isnt just the 'great news' that propels their positions in growth but the fact that they participate into the market through a low-risk entry and anticipate a higher growth on hopeful potential opportunity that is arising. That is how they are successful (and it is similar ideology to myself as to participate in a low risk opportunity for a greater reward) but whether they truly know how/why they are successful might not be unknowingly correct or not.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good morning, fxcube

If I may add, member: warburg already knows what Im going to explain today in detail which is surprising. And yes, it is very possible to anticipate such movements in advance.

Perhaps, and only my suggestion, the news release/economic data released by government is more or less just another indicator. And we all know indicators lag.

When government say usd is weakening. It is not just doom and gloom for US as there are also benefits of weakening usd dollar. It is the weight of the benefit that moves the price.

Or it could all be a ploy from the government but there is quiet a possibility that a purposeful false annoucement with malice intent can also backfire horribly causing a critical dent. Im sure they have some sort of risk control to apply when things turn sour but we will never know for certain. The market watches all this happen below its feet.

Government, traders, banks they are all just part of the plan and each individual body of trading traits that are more or less ripples in the ocean of everlasting motion.

Do you know what makes up eur/usd? Just on the simple sides and not including anything on micro terms or any inter-related exchanges.

Companies buying/selling large stock in america/uk
Travellers going from eur to usd or vice versa
Internet shoppers buying goods from america/uk
Corporations taking over interest in america/uk

and us, retail traders.

A vast space of struggle that are inter-twined on various levels with each individual nodes all with its own and separate agenda. It is a mind-boggling unstoppable neutral force that a single entity cannot control.

Just going out for the day.

Enjoy life and cherish it everday.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good evening, all

Thank you for the continued interest.

I hope everyone had a chance to think about what I have posted in the last 2 days.

Before I continue on with the intended material I would like to just take this moment to address something.

First of all, I do not have any plans to manage someone else's account. This will never happen.

Secondly, I did not start this thread for any personal agenda. I do not require any recognition or vouchers or the attention. Im the very opposite of an attention seeker.

Thirdly, I have received few offers through email/messages for a chance to create an e-book of some sort. I have no plans to create an e-book or book as such for financial gain. This will never happen.

Fourthly, I do not need to prove myself to anyone which is also on the first post of this thread. Im not here selling items as a salesman but Im here to genuinely help.

Lastly, I do agree that there are so much garble in this world or forex or forums that I will prove to all through the success of other traders that have learned something from me. That will signal my end and their beginning. They can continue on and show to all and prove it. I do not have any intentions to stay in this forum a minute longer than necessary.

I request all traders that are currently trading or planning to be a professional to reserve mutual respect for other traders. Successful trading begins from inside you first.

If I were to selfishlessly request something for myself is that when a trader is profitable through the methods I have presented for a good length of time to phonering any charity of their choice, in any country, any cause and donate whatever amount you think you can afford at that stage.

Just let me know in the future through a brief email, 'Graeme, thank you. It has been a xx years of profitable trading. I have donated xxx to xxx charity. Thank you.'

I may not reply back but these words will mean the world to me.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Filtering through deeper layers (smaller timeframe) from the hindsight from above level (higher timeframe) stacks the probability to your side.

It gives you an aim/goal: the potential profitable ground (scale) that we are aiming for. Anything from hundreds from daily, thousands from weekly/monthly.

I mentioned few times that alot of traders fail cause they do not know what they should expect. The hindsight that you pick on the higher timeframe gives you the required goal. You now know where to grip into so you can pull yourself up.

Currently, I do:

Monthly (hindsight) -> weekly (area) -> 4hr (smaller area) -> 5min (razor sharp entries)

However, this is also flexible. Sometimes I can just do:

Weekly (hindsight) -> 4hr (area) -> 1hr (smaller entries)

Or even:

4hr (hindsight) -> 1hr (area) -> 5min (razor sharp entries)

Everything is all relative. The above inception flow is all same except for one difference. What is it?

The scale.

If your hindsight is gathered on 4hr chart, expect the realistic profit first before you wonder whether this position will turn into a leg on your millipede.

For 4hr, expect a good movement to be 50-100 pips at minimum
For daily, expect a good movement to be 100 pips at minimum
For weekly, expect a good movement to be few hundred pips at minimum
For monthly, expect a good movement to be few thousand pips at minimum
For yearly, expect a good movement to be few thousand pips+ at minimum

The above is a realistic, sensible expectations from the hindsight received accordingly.

You can choose to be an intraday trader, so one of the possibilities are:

Daily (hindsight) -> 1hr (area) -> 5min (razor sharp entries)

There are so many variations and you dont need to follow mine.

At first I recommend weely or daily and then x1 area (4hr or 1hr) and then 5min.

You are aiming for profitable scale of higher timeframe but only risking what you will risk on smallest timeframe. This is basically encoding your risk:reward into your trading habit/actions already from the start. Alot of traders need to work out their r:r with numbers when it can also be set by your actions.

Continuing on..

Apologies to all.

Im experiencing few technical faults on my side here.

I have spent few hours preparing few charts before starting to post but all the charts are unavailable. It doesnt open for me.

This is disappointing as I spent the afternoon preparing them and they all seem to be cracked?

Just for now, Im deleting the last 2 posts and going to back to fixing this problem.

Apologies to all.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Thank you, MK

However, its not the internet but the charts was on my usb storage. They open up to just small x in the middle. First 2 charts I just posted are fine on the usb storage but the remaining charts are just little x's with 0 kbts.

This is a sad loss on my par.

I will be back to post in the prepared flow.

Once again apologies to all.

Sincerely,

Graeme

To all readers

Apologies but nothing seems to work with the remaining charts.

I will have to prepare them again.

I simply cannot do it tonight so it will have to be tomorrow morning.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Thank you for the suggestion.

I believe it didnt save properly onto my usb storage. All the files are 0 kbts with no data.

Apologies to all I will return tomororw morning.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good morning, all

Thank you for the posts and the compliments.

Since we have more participants/readers now than when I first started the thread, I acknowledge all compliments in my mind and thank you for them. Apologies if I do not acknowledge them in the posts as I try my best to keep this thread from growing more than necessary.

Last few hours, I have read all the new questions in the recent posts, private messages.

I thought perhaps I could leave some of these questions for the question asker to step back and think. Because if they turn off their computer and sat silently and thought about what they were really asking, the answer might emerge from all the related information I have supplied so far. I assumed that alot of readers had this type of sensible realistic reasoning power.

This is not an attack on the integrity of the questions. There is no such thing as wrong question and I ask for your understanding.

It is common human behaviour/characteristic to ask a question and expect a direct answer back. However, for any of the readers who are in the education industry knows that this is not how we show/teach. The 'show-er' leads the question-asker just enough for the question-asker to have an 'aha' moment on their own. That is effective learning.

"Dad, I have a friend who's brithday is coming up but I dont know what to get him"
"Son, get him a new baseball cap. All boys like them"

The above dad may be true about boys liking baseball caps but what does this teach the son? All guys like baseball cap? Does dad's answer teach his son anything else but his personal assumption that boys like baseball caps? Im sure dad can stop there and answer his son with an answer that may sound slightly offhand but lead to a better understanding about not just his son's friends birthday but perhaps a related life teaching.

"Dad, I have a friend who's brithday is coming up but I dont know what to get him"
"Son, what do you think?"
"Dad, I dont know so Im asking you"
"Son, I dont know your friend well however I think if you get him any present you really think he will like than it is the effort your friend will appreciate"
"??? But dad, what I think he might like but he might not like"
"That is true son. And you wont know what he likes until you ask him but you wouldn't do that to ruin the surprise"
"Ofcourse Dad"
"Then son, you have to think. You have known your friend few years so you know what he likes. Perhaps he likes sport? Baseball? What do you guys do when you meet up?
"Uhh... we play baseball often at the park. He loves it"
"Then what do you think, son?"
"OK dad. I sort of get it"

And thats what I do here.

However, before questions grow into problems and then disputes amongst the readers, please allow me to extinguish once for all the current questions/problems/discrepancies you may believe that you see.

Continuing on..

There are many many questions on current readers lips.

For once I will supply a direct answer to the questions asked and then leave little space for you to think.

Why does Joe only trade sell?

Joe only trade sells as he also knows very well that in forex everything is all relative. You can trade sell/buy to potentially profit more and potentially take slightly more losses. However you can be just as effective to trade one direction not just with flying buddha but any price pattern; pin bar, inside bar, engulf and still achieve success. Why? Its because the important ingredient required is what you do during the opportunity. You need to stretch the given opportunity to the maximum profit taking and keep your loss static and as small as possible. Its not the flying buddha that creates profit for you but your ability to minimize risk and expand on profits. Joe has sharpened his focal interpretation to interpret price action very well when coming down. We all agree that price action going down is exactly the same as price going up but we are looking at it upside down. Joe agrees that he still cannot make a focal connection between price action coming down and going up. He knows its the same but he notices that his personal focal interpretation is better when price is coming down and as he knows very well its all relative in the markets hence he knows he can create just as much profit by participating one side of the direction. Hope this helps.

Graeme, you said this before and now you say this?

Good observation. If you are genuinely under learning mode and not auto-attack mode, I ask you to sit back and think.

First of all, my initial intention of this thread was roughly 10 pages. I didnt have time nor the intention to go into depth on any particular subject. Few readers comment that everything I have said is already said. Yes, true. But then I wonder if its already being said few times why there are still losing traders? Its because you cannot teach everyone and expect all of them to come down to your focal interpretation overnight. And since this is a public forum and your dealing with many many traders all with different skills, focal interpretation, trading traits, trading beliefs it makes it almost impossible. How many trading system threads actually created successful traders? I dare say not many. How do I know? Just like a dad looking at his son growing up, he can look down and into his own past to see where his son is currently standing. You can try and concel very hard what you do not know and what you might know but it just shows in your writing. Think about this as you might think you are doing a great job covering your tracks but professionals who are above and beyond you, can just tell.

I had to squeeze what I do in the first 10 pages of this thread. All I intended to do was just tell them how I was trading 'briefly' and diversification and bid farewell. Which I did near the start.

Then I was asked about questions and my entries.

I moved on and explained to how to enter is not important but the participation.

This caused more interest and more questions.

So, through the sheer frustration, I showed everyone just .00 entries with 2 position entries. I failed when I saw all readers taking things literally.

It was a losing battle for me already.

All I could do is keep going and hopefully few do manage to connect.

And we are here now.

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> I diversify when there is growth -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> yes, i also trade lower timeframe and these are the charts I use -> Thank you

Im position trader -> I look at open of daily candle -> cause I know what has happened from 2 weeks ago -> but also trade lower timeframes -> cause I know the importance of partcipation -> I diversify when there is growth -> yes, i also trade lower timeframe and these are the charts I use -> i use momentum on lower timeframe -> Thank you

Im not surprised its all confusing and I apologize and admit there was no intended flow. My writing was expanded and grew so I can answer all the questions and then pull any readers behind in the understanding before proceeding with the next topic.

I ask for your understanding.

I will return later on with the posts and further explanation of the project

Sincerely,

Graeme

Absolutely Dave.

Thank you for the explanation.

One single good flying buddha will bring in thousands and thousands for over an extended period of time. Some not so good flying buddhas will still bring in profits that are caught in diversification or closed out at traders personal choice. Both methods capturing both short/medium and the potential of infinity reward. Covering all possible scenario and still growing your equity little by little until that golden opportunity comes along with 10+ weeks of movement.

Consider a monthly hindsight that lasts 2+ years. Remember 2001 to 2007 eur/usd up trend? It all started with x1 single flying buddha at 2001 June which was also heavy support from 2000 oct and november. Price never came back for 6 years after that x1 flying buddha.

Im still waiting for one of those, thats why im still prodding here and there on the monthly. Some are growing but i dont know if they will grow like eur/usd 6+ years of uptrend. I can only 'anticipate.' And while Im anticipating Im capturing short/medium growth and continuing to add realized profit into my trade balance making sure worst case scenario I still have something for my efforts.

Just letting all readers know Im still preparing the lost charts from yesterday.

Edit: I should add that price for eur/usd 'still' hasnt come back and perhaps the downtrend of the last 2 years was only a 50% fib of this uptrend? Market doesnt know we are talking/looking at a monthly chart. Its all relative.

Talk to you all very soon

Sincerely,

Graeme

Nice flying buddha. Remember this is daily. So each candle is one day of price.

Realistic expectaion from range? 100+ pips

Hindsight? Down

So after the completion of the daily flying buddha. We can write down on paper few things. Always write your plan.

1. Realistic expecation from range? 100+ pips
2. Hindsight? Down

Things to watch:

1. It might retrace first before it moves down.
2. Im interested in price that will close below that support to be classified as a volatile breakout after Flying Buddha.



What do I anticipate:

1. Retrace. Focus on 50%, open price of the flying buddha, top of the upper wick of flying buddha.
2. Volatility breakout; then there will be no retrace so I will have one position nice and early just to respect this fact.

Filtering levels:

Daily (hindsight) -> 1hr (area) -> 5min (razor sharp entries)

Level 0 ? Daily
Level 1 ? 1hr
Level 2 ? 5min

And this is your plan, nicely written. We write it down so our minds subconsciously encodes it into our thinking process and tells our eyes what to look for on the charts.

Day 1



One thing wrong about this chart is that we know the outcome. For now, consider we don?t know what happened after the flying Buddha.

Lets know zoom into level 1 (1hr)

We are anticipating DOWN. This is our hindsight. So we are looking at sell opportunities for now. On level 1 we are picking an area to sit down. Once we sit down we will zoom in closer for razor sharp entries.

With hindsight you cannot purposely make wrong decision. The hindsight says DOWN and as long as you keep your price interpretation same on all levels, you cannot enter wrong direction. Not sure what I mean?

Look below..



Unless you purposely want to go against your own hindsight: DOWN there is no ?area? on the first 4 hours to worth consider sitting down. See how this keeps you away from the market. Learners will just enter here and there and everywhere. Pros will only enter when there is A) low-risk entry B) higher probability

The price is now in range. I want to know where the price is in daily chart. This next chart is very very important for your understanding. This is the secret.



What do you see??

If you entered from just daily chart thinking you can make bigger profits because you are trading larger scale have just suffered a loss because the price went above much higher than the flying Buddha. However pros, looked at the flying Buddha on daily and then went into 1hr chart and saw it closer. And 1hr is now telling the trader ?NO. Wait?

And we do wait. We wait for the market.

For all traders who might not know why I might start moving into action after the completion of that candle here it is again:



See how one single candle explodes down cutting the support by almost twice. That is a lot of power. Descending wick pattern at top with long wicks (a sign of weakness for buyers and they cant get the price any higher as the time goes).

After the completion of that 1hr candle now I can sit down and write down few things.

1. Price did retrace. Infact it retraced more than most traders would like to see after a flying Buddha on a daily chart.
2. Lengthy period of time where price didn?t move. Long upper wicks that are decreasing now.
3. A big momentum candle near UK start.

It is now time to look into razor sharp entries. It may not work out or it may work out but we have done the best we can and have stacked probability of winning to our side.

Now I write down few things Im anticipating

1. I will focus price action near 50% fib.
2. It might retrace but im anticipating a descending wick or at the worst case scenario a double wick bounce.

So we know what happens but lets focus on that x1 1hr candle in 5min chart which is this area.





So the second flying Buddha is now telling us to enter with a razor sharp entry. You must check where this price is on the 1hr chart/daily as a reference point to see if its part of your anticipation.

But. It doesnt work out as the next few candles are the wrong price action.



So the price wants to go higher. Than you must ask yourself how much higher?

Perhaps the next is open of the previous candle or top of the upper wick perhaps?

Every position you stack on the 5min chart has the potential to grow for days while the risk is limited to what you can lose on 5min chart. Risk reward?

Potential loss on 5min chart : Potential profit of days

You have encoded r:r into your trading habit.

But?

Look at that engulf 1 hour candle. Warning sign.

Even if you want to enter on the 5min chart it wont allow you to.

Now something unexpected happens on the 1hr chart.





I tell you something. Any positions you entered after that flying Buddha survived for the next 2+ months and is still growing and worth +1300 pips each. Surprised?

So you had an interesting day. You had few stacks of positions but all of them died on breakeven. The only thing you managed to open was last 2/3 positions from the latest flying Buddha which you don’t know at this stage if it will grow.

Always reflect back on higher timeframe to see that the current price is ‘a part’ of your anticipation.

Lets see what happened after day 1 on daily chart.



What do you think?

Is it part of your anticipation?

We were expecting/hoping for a big volatile breakout downwards. The only saving grace at the moment is price closed slightly below the open. This is not good or bad. If price closes above the flying Buddha then this opportunity is over. At least we didn’t lose a lot.

And so on..

Now you would continue on choosing areas that are part of the higher timeframe hindsight and then razor sharp entries on the lower timeframe. As long as the hindsight remains valid you will continue entering towards the direction.

This is all you need to do. Very simple and it becomes very fast.

You know when to enter, how to enter and know what to expect.

But…

I will stop here and say something to add.

Im not sure if you can actually see that there are continuous cycle of generalized price action. It repeats and repeats on all timeframes.

You need to know this cycle well so you know when to trade and when not to trade.

Imagine you see a perfect inside bar on weekly chart. And the following week is a volatile breakout towards the intended direction. This information alone is worth thousands and thousands of pips.

And the price continues until that golden opportunity is over.

You then rinse and repeat the above.

It is that simple but yet complex in a sense as well.

Continuing on..

But?

Remember, I take every buy/sell opportunities?

So, if weekly hindsight says down then do I only look for sell opportunities?

No.

Let me quickly show you how you make quick short profit on both side of the coins.



Level 0 ? Weekly (hindsight)
Level 1 ? 4hr (area)
Level 2 ? 5min (scalp entries)

Lets write a plan before the start of the circled week candle.

Realistic expectation: 100+ pips
Hindsight: Down (continuation trend)

Things to watch: 1. Oversold. Quiet possibly a deep retrace or a stall.
2. Ema hasn?t crossed under yet (its crossed on the chart cause the weekly candle completed). Quiet possibly a big movement down around the cross. Chances are good.

What do I anticipate: Continuous compelling momentum with hardly any retrace, if retrace preferably somewhere below 50% fib.

Now we have a plan.

And the week starts..



I always keep the hindsight in my mind but I also know to expect the unexpected. I always ask myself the opposite questions to my hindsight. If price does reverse against me and against my hindsight how should I be watching the above chart?

I know my hindsight is DOWN but hypothetically if I said it was up where should I look? Where are the obvious areas?

Once again use price action interpretation:

But, with trades against the hindsight require extra confirmation. Hindsight is your main objective and trades against your hindsight are just secondary punts.

You can still take calculated punts and create good source of short burst of profit.

Lets look back at 4hr chart and mark an area that if price does come I would be interested in taking a trade against the hindsight.



So where is the orange line from 4hr chart on 5min?



So you capture a short profit on the retrace of the weekly candle and once it bounces back down from 50% fib we would zoom in again into 5min and start capturing with more positions.

Let me take a step back and place few golden tips on taking trades against hindsight.

First, you don?t take any trades against hindsight until you are well skilled and comfortable with taking trade with the hindsight. Stick to one for now.

Secondly, if market is all relative then trends can start from weekly o r 5min chart. It can begin where it should end or it should end where it should begin. How do you know a retrace on 5min chart is not the actual new trend? What if our hindsight was wrong? We are never right all the time so if our hindsight is wrong then the opposite must be correct.

I always take trades on the opposite of my hindsight. Few possible scenarios happen for me:

1. My higher timeframe hindsight is correct and I have built a whole stack of positions.
2. My higher timeframe hindsight was incorrect unfortunately but my secondary punts actually grow to be legs on my wrong hindsight.

You cover both scenarios by doing the above.

Another quick example..

Good evening, all

I was planning to show another example of trades against the hindsight but I have decided not to continue.

I believe that the charts about trades against hindsight will cause more confusion than clarity.

However, I do believe that once you upskill following your hindsight trading you will inevitably phase into taking countertrades. Im confident this will happen as part of related learning and there is no need for me to show you now.

Lets all leave taking trades again hindsight alone for now.

Now lets move onto just one more topic.

Edit: Correct muntu. That would be a good idea to diversify. Or you can risk little more and leave the trades and push through till end with your hindsight. More exposure = more profit, less exposure may result in less loss (but is breakeven really a loss??) but also less potential profit.

Anticipation

Continuing on..

Thank you for the continued interest and the compliments. They are greatly appreciated and makes my efforts worthwhile.

I mentioned before how I will show you to freeze time.

This also connects with my next topic 'anticipation.'

What is anticipation?

It is a partial hindsight of the next course of action that may or may not happen.

"Im anticipating for my dog to return home"
"Im anticipating a pay rise this year"
"Im anticipating to meet a new boyfriend this year"

Anticipation and guessing is different. Guessing is having absolutely no idea on the next course of event while anticipation is having some degree of knowledge of what might happen in due time and hope that it does happen.

Anticipation in forex creates alot of profit making opportunities.

Please see this 5min chart below:



Look at red candle. Now this is 5min. We dont know if that candle will be a flying buddha while forming. There are some things in forex that repeats and repeats. If I personally choose 3 things, they are

1. Price retrace to the previous candle's wick and 'bounce' off near the area or at the same price.
2. Price retrace to 50% fib and bounce off
3. Price retrace to open of the previous candle and bounce off

These are 3 things I watch happen all the time and I have built a trading edge over it. How?

Now that candle is 5min chart. The tick action of the above chart is too fast for me to react in time to get a position on the wick. Sometimes I can but most times I cannot.

If everything is all relative. Then that chart could be a weekly. The only way you know that chart is 5min is because I have stated that its 5min.

Action on 5min is very fast but action on weekly is very slow.

On weekly chart, we can actually wait to see the price approach the area and then what do you think we can do?

We freeze the time (in a sense).

We see the price approach the upper wick of the previous candle and with the mentality to spend few pips for something great we will participate.

Lets have a look at r:r

Risk of 5min entry : Potential profit of weekly

+ (PLUS) higher probability of a bounce

continuing on..

Look at that weekly chart. Lets focus on red. We dont know when that weekly candle is forming that there will be a upper wick bounce and that it would turn out to be a flying buddha.

However, I would like to freeze time and zoom in and see very closely near the upper wick.

Just on a side note, main hindsight for the chart would be UP since the last 2 weeks is up.

But you must notice that long previous wick. That is a sign of weakness from buyers. Not all the times but enough times.

I always place an alert on the price which will send me an message on my phone when price reaches there.

Lets say the week opened and I received a message. Price has approached close to the upper wick of last week.

Lets see what level 1 say. (4hr)



Continuing on..

If 5min chart is too fast for you to get a position in then on weekly there is more than plenty of time.

Infact, if you miss it then you have missed it. There will be more later on.

So lets just say you arrived on the scene at the open of the red candle. You are little late as the price seems to have bounced off the red line.



Lets zoom in level 3 (1 hr) for a smaller area. We are in process of freezing the time by decreasing our scale against the potential happenings of the weekly.

Look at the above red candles. They are 5 minute candle. There is no way you could enter any sell positions on the first few candles.

This is prime time. It is in the area where something big 'can' happen.



They are now woth 900+ pips each and has the highest probability to survive as they are on the wick of the weekly.



You many wonder how many times a wick bounce happen. Well, a wick bounce on the exact same area is not often but you can anticipate many many setups before hand. Beauty is you will have positions on the wicks that has the highest probability of survival if the new trend continues.

Some areas that was possible to anticipate on the weekly chart.



Some weeks you can pull out good profit where normal traders will find it hard.

I do the above all the time with great success.

Now for the project..

I hope there is enough times for the readers to absorb and think about the last few pages in this thread before attempting the project.

All I ask for the next 2 weeks is to keep things very simple.

We are doing:

1. Pre-selecting a pair of currency
2. Analysing the weekly price action
3. Form a hindsight and realistic expectation
4. Write down a plan
5. And execute

Allow me to show few examples that are from this weekend.

Example 1

Pair: eur/usd



Realistic expectation: Weekly chart. 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight: Down, continuation trend

Analysis: Last week candle is a small non-movement. Price has stalled after a large bold down candle. I was hoping for continuation trend last week however it didnt. Price is slightly off ema so im expecting a retrace. Ema is about to crossover but that depends on the momentum of this week.

Anticipate: Im anticipating retrace. Im anticipating an upper wick bounce from last week and will send an alert to my phone at that area. For my hindsight to work I require a compelling momentum piercing the lower wick of last week. Im aware that price might respect the descending wick pattern and bounce back. I will anticipate this bounce up and will be ready to watch and go with the flow. Honestly I give this pair of currency 6.5 out of 10 chance that it will be a bold candle down.

Example 2

Pair: gbp/aud



Realistic expectation: Weekly chart. 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight: Down, continuation trend after engulfing candle.

Analysis: Great momentum. Bold down candle that completely engulfs previous 3 up candles. There was 5 wick touch which means a strong resistance just around the tip of the upper wicks. Im not happy about the long lower wick of previous weeks candle. There is an ascending wick pattern that needs to be broken.

Anticipate: I anticipate a retrace but I hope something less than 33% to prove that buyers have definitely given up the fight and the momentum down is dominating. 7.5 out of 10 however I will cover all bases and send alerts to my phone on the red lines. I will be keeping this pair closer than others.

Example 3.

Pair: gbp/chf



Realistic expectation: Weekly chart. 100+ pips minimum

Hindsight: Down, continuation trend after compelling momentum

Analysis: Last week was a good movement. Not great but good. Price retraced to 50% of weekly candle 2 weeks ago and came down. That could have been taken advantage of. Good move down but bounced up on support 1.58500 which had few bounces before. Ema crossed over recently, so good chance that this will follow through with another compelling momentum. Price is opening this week at 50% of last week already.

Anticipate: Since price is opening 50% of last week. If there is a retrace I will focus on open price of last week or tip of upper wick. Ema crossed over recently so good chance of compelling momentum down. I sincerely hope for a volatile breakout of 1.58500 which would cause huge potential of profit. I give this 7 out of 10 for a bold candle down.

If I could request all readers who are participating this project to send me a plan like the above. Similar layout is preferred but not essential.

Please send me to pipeasy at yahoo.com

I have already received few and I applaud the few members who are taking steps ahead of the rest.

When market opens tomorrow, even though you feel that you are ready and understand, trust me when I say it wont be easy. But I will guarantee it will get easier through more practice.

To keep things very simple, for now, please send me your plan only and today think about what you will do this week. Pre-vision all your actions and what you are going to do.

Do you know why professional footballers point to the sky towards the opposite goal before freekick? It is a very well known mind control that coaches teach. You are pre-visioning your action before it happens. You will be amazed how this pre-vision helps condition your mind and prepares you and even achieves what you visioned beforehand.

For now, just the plan and from tomorrow make your hindsight come true or minimize your loss if it doesnt.

As the week moves on I will let all participants know what is expected next.

Perhaps opening a new demo account just for this project as I would be very interested in the trades you take. I will analysis each of your trade and see why you have taken them and then offer advice.

You can email me questions or leave me answers on this thread regarding this project. Im just going to lie down for about a hour or two to rest so when I return I will answer questions to the project.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Just before I go lie down for 1 or 2 hours.

For all the members who have emailed me their project already, there is no need to formulate it again.

I will work it out.

Kindest Regards.

Graeme

Good evening, Dave

Apologies. You are correct, I should have clearly indicated that last week candle is a FB.

My analysis still remains the same and I too will look for breakouts in either direction.

Although I would have preferred the FB to be little larger body. This is just my personal thing that I have accumulated from looking at so many FBs.

Looking forward to your contribution

Good night all.

Best of the luck this week.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good morning, all

Thank you all for the participation.

Most readers are charging forward and it is fantastic to see.

Keep it very simple please.

Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says UP. No trade.
Weekly hindsight down. 4hr price action says DOWN. 5min price action says UP. No trade until 5min also agrees.

Throughout the week, ask yourself is price action really to your anticipation.

Most of the time it will be not.

This is a psychological aspect. The market moves slower than most traders expectations vs time. Please remember that.

Also, you do not need to stay up all night as that will affect your health. There is no such thing as too late in forex but always too early. I sense that many traders are in a rush which a is healthy dose of motivation however market moves much slower than your motivation.

At the end of 2 weeks. "Graeme, my weekly hindsight 2 weeks ago didnt work out. However, for the potential profit of few hundred pips, I lost -200 pips overall."

That is a fantastic result. A weekly opporunity that works out will reap thousands and thousands while you stretch the profit taking and you took calculated risk but unfortunately turned out -200. Remember world/life/market doesnt end with this one opportunity.

This is where your money management may come into practice. Tell yourself, I spent 200 pips just on the last weekly hindsight. How many more can I sustain? If its anything above 20 more opportunities (for the new starters) than your capital is fine. And thats all to money management. Even if you adhered to one pair of currency, look at x20 weekly candles. Im sure there are few segments within that 20 candles (5 months) that are absolutely profit making. All agree?

For now I will take a step back and let all traders take hold of their actions and prove to themselves they can. And I say you can. You can.

All the answers are here but inside you already. Everyone is doing well.

Thank you for private messages/emails I will answer them shortly.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good morning, all

Apologies if I seem too quiet however I would like all traders to think on their own.

Im reading all the emails and private messages and have printed out all of them. There are currently 30+ participants.

It is good to see all participants have sensible realistic expectation of the next 2 weeks that has the poential for alot of profit.

There are few things I would need to say as part of learning.

1. It has now been 1 day after hindsight. Look at the daily candle just formed. Is it part of your hindsight??

2. Where is price now to your hindsight?? Is it part of your anticipation?

3. Please only stack when the price in your favour. The worst case scenario when prive reverses is perhaps the loss of last 1 or 2 positions and rest BE (unless there is a volatile sharp price spike).

4. For now, I suggest keeping things very simple and only trade with the hindsight.

For everyone's reference, I chose gbp/aud as my project this week. Hindsight is DOWN




The above chart was before market open this week.





So what do you think might happen now with higher probability? Yes, price is now against my hindsight so I will walk away from computer until its over.




**EDIT: will return to post correct chart of yesterday not last week ***

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good observation, boz5

Marion was my business aide for many years. I wasnt aware that he was trading forex until one evening.

Before I met him, he was already an established successful trader on his own with 50% fib method only. My suggestion of price irregularity of flying buddhas that had him combine both elements of 50% fib and FB.

He made the connection between flying buddhas and 50% fib whilst I only suggested the price irregularity of FBs.

The last 2-3 years of his trading career has been solely on the new found arrangements of 50% fib and FBs only. Before our collaboration he was already successful in using just price action at 50% fib of every 4hr candle.

Hope this clears any confusion and apologies.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good morning, all

Thank you for the continued interest.

I have been observing individual traders and noticed few things of importance.

Many of the traders are trying to force the price to happen as per their hindsight

Market doesnt know about your intentions nor has any interest in your hindsight. If your weekly hindsight is DOWN then there is no need to take every sell opportunity that you come across.

Today, is first day of september.

What does this mean?

Im gravely interested in movement that opens:

First day of month and charges forward to end of the month
First day of week and charges farward to end of the week
First hour of the day and charges forward to end of the day

Taking every FBs

I mentioned in my earlier posts that FBs only have 40% chance of probability. I will apply this generalisation/ratio to inside bars, pin bars, engulfs.

60% probability of loss + spread = losing games to all traders already

It is your responsibility to make sure the failed FBs does not dent your capital or your emotions.

Aggressive stacking

You will greatly maximize profit taking with the mentality to add just 1 or 2 more positions on top of the initial position. Yes, I do stack several tens of positions when it does work out for me however I also control the positions well enough so any large changes will only cause me to lose 1 or 2 positions that were recently added. Is that you?

Price Interpretation

Would you like to know if your price interpretation is upskilled?

You can test it yourself.

GO back to any 5min chart, any session, and pair. Use your current price interpretation and enter accordingly. Dont look at the pips you make but how many candles go your way.

If your price interpretation is correct and the price moves at least 3 candles to your intended direction without the price closing below your buy entry or above your sell entry then your price interpretation is upskilled enough.

3 candles on 5min chart would mean less than 10 pips but 3 candles on weekly chart would mean hundreds or thousands. Do you get the point? Remember the scale is different

If market is all relative then use the same price interpretation of 5min chart on the weekly chart to create your hindsight.

I can honestly say, 8 or 9 out of 10 price interpretation entries on 5min chart will always goto my direction by at least few candles.

At the end of 2 weeks:

Scenario A
Trader with large drawdown but weekly hindsight didnt work out

It was your responsibility to minimize your losses and it needs to be looked at. Hindsight not working out is all part of the plan/trading.

Scenario B
Trader with large drawdown but weekly hindsight was correct

Losses greater than your profit. Price interpretation may have been correct but you need to lower your risk taking/stacking/entries greatly

Scenario C
Trader with small profit and weekly hindsight was correct

It means you have been selective of your entries to avoide drawdowns and positioned yourself for greater profits only to have random price fluctuation to take your winning positions out early. This is good sign and sooner or later you will hit it big with this approach.

Scenario D
Trader with complete profit that grew for 2 weeks and according to hindisight

Same as scenario C trader but the only difference is you sat infront of your computer at a different time. Price moved towards your hindsight for the complete 2 week candles.

Which one are you?

Sincerely,

Graeme

Apologies, I had to step in.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

Kindest Regards,

Graeme

Good morning, all

This may be the last post before I allow more space for the traders to continue on.

Does everyone remember the random number game we played in earlier part of the thread?

You do not need to be present at every given opportunity.

This is a very important sentence with alot of meaning..

"Trade what you see, when you see it"

It is that simple. And this will help you avoid most/all of the range periods. Yes, you will miss out few golden opportunities but is this the only one.?

If you run out of ammo then what use is your gun?

I applaud at all the participants and its great to see all traders taking the project seriously but it will become better/faster/clearer.

The purpose of the project:

It now gives each trader: what to expect in profit, a clear defined goal, knowing when to trade and when not to. And above all risking very small for potential very large profits. A true professional traders mindset.

Please continue on.

Sincerely,

Graeme

I was planning to write this post some time this weekend but I will address it now.

It is great pleasure (without any cynical intent) to see traders on the project struggling.

This is your first emotional hurdle and I would like everyone to feel the complete extent of it for your future benefits.

A trader may look at his stats now and say

"Graeme. What in the world is going on??? I had 15 entries and total loss of 150 pips. Average loss per position is 10 pips. Its not working"

"Ok. Jim.."

Soon when the inevitable does happen.

"Graeme. 4 positions lasted 2 weeks of profiting. Average profit per position is 350 pips making my gross profit 1400. And this was from my 3rd attempt on the project. I lost 150 pip each project and now Im up net 950 pips. I started with $2000 usd and now sitting on $2950, a 50% increase (slightly lower)."

Trust me when I say im not the least surprised...

And I hope the above trader closes out just the smaller 3 legs and keep the largest one for something more spectacular.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Just replying to a question on private message

I receive instant alerts to my cellphone which helps me with my trading immensely.

There are 2 things you need. smtp server and VPS server.

I have used the same company for almost 2 years with no problem at all.

For smtp server:

I use www.authsmtp.com and pay $40 USD annually for 2000 emails a month.

For VPS server:

I use www.vpsland.com and pay $24.99 USD per month for the value deal. When I signed up 2 years ago the deal was slightly different but it is better priced now. The lite deal @ $19.99 USD per month is more than enough if you dont use multiple trading platforms and eas.

For phone, I use blackebrry bold 8800.

Im not sure about Iphone but blackberry has true push email. Which means there is no lag to when I receive new emails on my phone.

Smtp will send the email from mt4 to my blackberry email address which is xxxxxx@blackberry.net.au which arrives instantly on my phone with less than a second delay. This is important and you need true push email capabilities on your phone. I used samsung phone before which had a lag of anything from 5min to 15minutes for the email to arrive on my phone and alert me. Check if you can organise a true push alert on your phone.

There are few bad reviews of vpsland.com however I had very good experience so far for the last 2 years. This is only my personal experience and Im not affiliated with either of the companies.

You do not need to click on the hyperlinks above but simply type in the address in your web browser if you believe that I am affiliated with either of the companies.

The benefit of having vps server is that you can run your mt4 24/7 so you dont need to leave your computer on at home all day. Also you can place price alerts on all the pairs that has your interest and once price reaches the point of interest it will shoot an email to my phone so I can start walking to my computer at home to trade. I do daily shutdowns when I wake up.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Good question, veefx

Hope you dont take any offence at a such short answer but its all relevant.

Yes, in the broader scheme of things it doesnt matter.

Price, market is all universal and neutral.

Everything works yet everything doesnt work.

and if everything is all relative, I can say the above sentence backwards and it still applies.

Sincerely,

Graeme

In regards to what all traders are currently experiencing.

Would you like to know the emotional hurdle after this one?

It is worse than you can expect.

First emotional is:

holding your anticipation and minimizing your drawdown and keeping your beliefs intact.

You will get over this when you experience a weekly hindsight that will work to your favour. It is inevitable that it will happen as the probability is on your side. Remember casinos do not make money from every gambler immediately. They have designed the game so on the long term they are the only winners by shifting the probability of winning towards the casino. This is what we do in trading. We are the casino and we require the patience and the bank to sustain the short term fluctuations.

Second emotional is:

holding onto your winning position and not closing out too soon.

Second emotional hurdle is a complete different feeling. Finally you have positions that are growing and they suddenly start to decrease in size. What will you do?

I didnt have as much first emotional hurdle as I base many of my principals and beliefs in statistics with the long term vision. I wasnt in a rush as I did not look at trading as a means of financial freedom per se.

Base your beliefs with statistics to cement your intent.

I can assure you, 5-20 attempts (on different times) is required before a 5min entry will grow for 2 weeks.

15pips average loss per position x 20 attempts = -300 pips

Worried? Why?

That is only a dip on your equity curve before a volatile breakout upwards. Then another small dip before another woosh! breakout.

Once you start collecting enough data on your trades you will definitely see that you are always making new higher-lows and the equity curve will never come below the previous dip as long as you keep your beliefs/method/trading/habit consistent.

I will guarantee this.

Sincerely,

Graeme