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Building an equity millipede
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Dec 21, 2010 8:45pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ozziedave
Hi Graeme,
You say you should have a position on the wicks of the daily candles and it's easy to see that in retrospect. Those long wicks on the daily candles stick out like a sore thumb after the candle has closed. What you have shown in this series of pictures is how to analysis the lower (multiple) time frames to accomplish the positioning of your entry so you have a chance of being on the wick part of the candle. When you show it after the fact it looks really easy but in real time it may be a bit more difficult to do. This has always been...
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Good morning, Dave
Thank you for the warm compliment.
Also wishing you a merry christmas and a safe festive season for you and your family.
You are absolutely correct.
Is it fear of participation or fear of ones own ability.
And it can all be overcome by a trader sending out a probe and reacting to its growth or death.
Most traders analysis situations, calculate their static r:r and then place one order. I tend to confirm my beliefs first by sending out one position then act accordingly to what unfolds.
There are group of traders who private message me that are currently watching eurusd, gbpusd, eurgbp to drop. And yes it did drop yesterday and hopefully traders did catch it. But if they missed it, I would like to go back to yesterday and drill it in again.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 6:26am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good evening, all
It looks like very similar scenario as yesterday and monday for eurusd
Edit: Actually that is an ironic thing to say as trading is a repetitive cycle of similar scenarios. It is up to a traders skill to notice such general cycle and to be positioned accordingly.
Just looking at eurusd 4hr
I feel the first pang of price direction changing to go down.
It is an early assumption and small probes on lower timeframe is a very good idea.
edd ganuelas - Good observation. There are always small discrepancies between feeds of brokers. Nothing that can be exploited for financial gain on our retail level. Even with the discrepancy you will find the movement/direction is the same.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Edit: Apologies, I was looking at same eurusd chart thinking it was gbpusd. Edited gbpusd out of content above
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Dec 22, 2010 8:19am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fugly
i was able to get in another leg of my millipede two positions in eurchf ....... first one was a probe and when that was in profit i picked a good entry and put in a second position. So I now have three legs.... cad/jpy,eur/aud and eur/chf
i have reached my 3 loss limit for today on entries so will try to put in new legs and additional positions in existing legs tomorrow. My losses in establishing the positions are small compared to my profit so all's well so far.
Only thing i worry about now is if the positions retrace and i'm stopped out on...
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Excellent.
Glad to see that you have utlized probing first and that you have added position as your theory gets warmer.
May I suggest that you do not stop stacking when things are getting warmer. Keep it moderate and just one more position means alot down the track (could turn out to be 40 or 50 spare probe ammos)
For those traders who are private messaging me in regards to eurusd
You should by now have at least 2 positions as this is black and white scenario. If none, that is unacceptable.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 8:27am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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My vision of aura is getting hotter.
I see many opportunties and im sure most readers know where I might be stacking.
Currently I hold 4 sell positions on eurusd and 2 on gbpusd from today
eurusd 4hr
eurusd 1hr
All positions now breakeven.
Where does this leave us?
eurusd daily
Alls well for the moment.
Always expect the unexpected and move your stop loss to BE just incase this 4hr candle does turn out to be one of those absurd looking long wicked. There is nothing we can do if that happens.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Last edited Dec 22, 2010 8:40am
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Dec 22, 2010 8:36am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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How ironic to mention something might happen and it happens right after it.
eurusd 5min
now on eurusd 15min
Few of positions are closed out at BE.
Nothing lost and nothing we can do.
I detest funny looking candles with highly erratic movements.
Watch if it drops down again but very cautious as erratic movements like these are not best movements.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 9:06am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Probing again would be the best idea with eurusd
Start slow just to confirm that it will still go down with one position
Start with anticipating no retrace or less than 33% retrace on any 15min, 30min, 1hr
Assume the best possible scenario and prepare to lose a small probe for it
eurusd 1hr
eurusd 30min
eurusd 15min

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Dec 22, 2010 9:21am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Price now approaching .00 again.
The buy stops and TPs triggerd before has been depleted.
It is now sellers against buyers
Best scenario would be a hot volatile breach with no stall at .00
If you havent probed just before at the start of 1hr candle you have stopped your own profitability.

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Dec 22, 2010 9:25am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willkohsg
Hi Graeme,
Just want to say thanks for posting in FF,
I have just in recent weeks stumbled upon this thread and been trying my best to read as much as I can.
So far I am still in the process of reading and learning.
But i have had just stacked one Sell position on EURUSD at 1.3118 and it's 13 pips in profit right now and moved stop to BE.
now on my 2nd position and once it moves + 10 pips or more i'm going to move the stop to BE asap.
I am frantically trying to read as much as possible cos there's just so much information so that i can get...
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Thank you for the compliment and it is my pleasure.
The positive impact a trader contributes to his/her family and community through their success outweighs the effort I place in these forums. That is the ultimate risk:reward for myself..
Get ready for that 2nd position to BE as there is a stall at .00.
However, Im sure you will know what to do if it breaches through
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 9:33am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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I havent talked about stacking on 5min chart for some time.
eurusd 5min
Anticipating:
1. Down candle
2. Less than 33% retrace - best possible scenario
3. It does close below .00
Cost?
5 pips..
I will pay this every opportuntiy i get
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Dec 22, 2010 9:37am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Never sit in one spot looking at one timeframe
Move around as each timeframe tells different story
eurusd 4hr
Make another assumption
If the current 4hr candle is nice and bold with the best scenario then it should close below the open price of previous up candle. Remember this rule that we speak everytime.
Make it into reality. Participate
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Dec 22, 2010 9:42am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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If we just stop here and reflect what just happened for the last few hours.
You are trading well with a professional mindset if:
eurusd 4hr
There is one more 1hr candle before the new 4hr candle
Time to ease up little bit and watch again
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Dec 22, 2010 9:46am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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I havent lost a position yet so I continue stacking heavily. I'm still controlled not to overtrade.
eurusd 5min

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Dec 22, 2010 9:48am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomask
Hi Graeme..how about my 4 hr just started 45 min ago 
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Well done.
I didnt look at gbpusd but i thought it might.
eurusd and gbpusd move together most often during fast movements
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Dec 22, 2010 9:52am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipEASY
I havent lost a position yet so I continue stacking heavily. I'm still controlled not to overtrade.
eurusd 5min

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Im unfortuantely embarassed to admit that I just suffered a small loss.
Pressed buy instead of sell and only realized now when my hard stop loss wouldnt enter.
New 1 hour candle coming up. Wait and watch
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 10:00am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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By now alot of the readers can probably anticipate/assume on the same level as myself as I have been drilling in same information over and over again.
Next 1hr candle is coming up.
What are we anticipating?
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Dec 22, 2010 10:05am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by willkohsg
are we anticipating price to breach through the 80ish levels which was the support for the previous lows on Hourly chart?
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Good.
In general I anticipate that current 1 hour candle has
1. Less than 33% retrace - which is the best scenario for us
Cost of probe?
8 pips...
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Dec 22, 2010 10:08am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pipEASY
Never sit in one spot looking at one timeframe
Move around as each timeframe tells different story
eurusd 4hr
Make another assumption
If the current 4hr candle is nice and bold with the best scenario then it should close below the open price of previous up candle. Remember this rule that we speak everytime.
Make it into reality. Participate
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Looking back at post about 30 minutes ago.
We anticipated price to drop below open price of previous up candle and close below it. This is the best scenario and we always assume the best scenario for us.
At the moment it is happening that way.
Are you participating?
Are you creating it into reality?
What is stopping you? - Is it the indicators and the pending news releases and the whole rigamarole of conflicting thoughts and views hindering your own progress? Or perhaps it is the generalised belief that you hold against you from participating.
Whatever it is, you are unknowingly stopping your own profitability. Think about it..
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Dec 22, 2010 10:21am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Apologies at the length of my posts.
I hope the scene by scene helps your trading.
I too trade with all the readers so our interest matches.
For the traders who did follow my recommendation
This is where we are:
eurusd daily
eurusd weekly
eurusd monthly
Would you say you are in the best position for the greater profitability?
How much did it cost you today?
-20, -40, -60 pips even?
It upsets me that traders with professional mentality are concerned with such petty losses.
Last edited Dec 22, 2010 10:37am
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Dec 22, 2010 10:28am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Now, everything can go against us at any moment.
We cant prevent that happening but for today you did act true professional and placed your interest in the best possible scenario.
The fluctuations of the market is random and we can only do the same thing again and again till it does ienvitably stick as per our hindsight. Inevitable.
Since we always assume the best possible scenario. Here is one more assumption I will try and make a reality out of.
eurusd monthly
This is the best possible scenario. Price continuing down from here for the next 7 years or more for thousands and thousands of pips.
Im ready to hold onto it until then.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 10:35am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Thank you for the continued interest.
It is 2:30am here in Sydney and I do have to attend a medical examination earlier on tomorrow.
I could be unavailable for the next few days to attend to personal matters.
In reponse to the question I received through private messaging. I promised all that I was working on a pdf version of information.
It has evolved to a point where now I am writing a book on it. It will be hopefully be ready end of next year.
Some might question my motive now that I mention that I could be selling books but rest assured all members of this forum who request a copy will receive one for free at my expense. Please let me know closer to the date.
The book will be titled: Building an equity millipede
The book is something that I wish to leave behind as a token of accomplishment.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Price stalled. Time to leave computer and leave your positions on BE.
Edit: There will be no personal profiting from the book sale. It will all go to charity
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Dec 22, 2010 10:36am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Thank you for the warm compliments.
Good night all.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 22, 2010 6:35pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning, all
Thank you for the continued interest.
Iplaygames - Thank you for sharing your experience with all of us. Well done with your new accompliment. I can see a mix of positions that range 10 cent per pip to 2 cent per pip. This is only a recommendation but it would be wise to start looking at exits on higher timeframes to diversify or close out as your current growth is already few thousand pips but I see that you have exposure on various pairs and not one particular (nothing wrong with that). Im just laying out my thoughts for you to only consider. Overall excellent job and hope this is the start of something new.
I thought to myself for a moment before I started typing this post. Its in reply to an email that I received overnight. The sender is clearly unhappy that I have mentioned the upcoming book and is questioning my motive. It is strange enough to reply to such email publically however I thought perhaps there are other individuals who also share the same view. And this makes me wonder if I unknowingly discouraged potential professional traders to-be who were just fine till now then to stop while they draw near.
It is disheartening to see that the world we live and us the inhabitants has almost zero trust with each other yet we exist upon interaction and communication. You would literally lose your mind if you were locked in a room for few days without any other human being in your presence.
However, I understand why and the need to hold doubts and uncertainties to what we hear and see. And I understand that the sender is more angry with themselves because the trust he/she has placed could be all waste of time.
The book I mentioned will be available from local bookstores. It will be submitted to a reputable publisher and will be distributed through the right channel. You can either purchase the book from bookstore or I can send you one for free at my expense or even borrow from library. It will not be sold through this forum or a website or ebay.
It might not even make it to that level but it will hold genuine intent.
Apologies if I have offended anyone.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Last edited Dec 22, 2010 6:56pm
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Dec 22, 2010 8:29pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Thank you all for the above comments. It is greatly appreciated.
It really does warm me up inside.
Let us please move on for the benefit of all.
Today I would like to talk about one more topic.
It is on the word i use often, 'inevitable.'
If there are 100 cards and only 1 card is the joker the probability of a person drawing the joker is 1%.
Now this person can keep drawing (and replacing the drawn card back in the deck for the next draw) until the joker is drawn. It might take 1000 tries or it might take even take more than 10000 draws. It could even happen on the 2nd draw.
The point is that sooner or later with the continuos course of action it is inevitable that the person will draw it. And it is this guarantee that it will happen but sometime in the future as the definition of inevitability.
A thief can steal and not get caught. He may be very skilled but every time he steals he is exposing himself to the risk of getting caught. Based on his skill he could have low % of being caught or high % of being caught. But no matter what he does it is inevitable fact that sooner or later he will get caught.
Inevitability is very important to your trading success. It is the gel that holds you in place and keep you sane. There are so much information from indicators, news, etc that all traders are at the risk of over information. This actually prohibits you to take trades and hold uncertainty in ones self. It is here that ones own belief of the inevitability of a correct hindsight on the monthly timeframe holds you on the right path.
If you have traded on the lower timeframe using price interpretation we have talked about, you will find sometimes it does not work to your forecast but sometimes it does happen exactly to what you have forecasted. However, the chances of us being right is much more than 50% of the time as we are selective with our scenario; looking for higher probability movements.
Using this price interpretation on the monthly chart has one drawback and one reward. The drawback is that the speed we are use to on 5min chart is now so much slower as each candle is now a months worth of data. But the reward is that a correct hindsight on the monthly chart will bring in huge rewards that does propel your profit levels to the next heights.
A month time could be a very long period of the average trader. And it feels worse to watch day by day price doing the opposite to your hindsight. You will question your beliefs, get anxious and start listening to the irrelevant noise of the market and other traders.
This is not the act of a trader who believes in inevitability.
The pair you have chosen to start may feel like a drag. Not moving and it might not even work out for this month or the next. During this time you notice other pairs rocketing in movement which does make you feel more miserable. It is important to believe in yourself and the fact that sooner or later you will inevitably hit it right. If in doubt look back on the monthly chart and notice how many areas your price interpretation is correct and see that the price did infact travel few candles that are few thousands in pips.
Stay with the chosen pair for now
Believe in yourself
And above all believe in inevitability and stay in the game
Persistence pays to those who persists
Once a large chunk is taken from a pair, we will start trading another pair together. And it becomes a blur after that.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S will answer PMs later on
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Dec 22, 2010 9:42pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidKnight
I've been following this thread since the very start and right away I was in alignment with much of what Graeme has talked about. So much so that I immediately started to explore changing my scalping tendencies towards the general philosophy behind the core concepts: anticipate, participate, and probe, stack, grow.
Yet after all this effort I have not had any winners above 300 pips. The large majority of the trades get taken out BE or at a loss and my account is still in the red. No one is talking about this so I guess I'm...
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Good post and thank you for the input.
Thank you for the continued interest from the beginning of the thread.
I'm assuming your trading approach is similar to mine and have been testing it out for some time. I am somewhat surprised to see only a growth of 300 pips over the course of your participation. I'm sure we can improve on this as there have been great moves of more than a thousand pips since the start of this thread few months ago. To be only able to catch 300 pips out of such moves on any pair is already itself lukewarm. This is not an attack but just my reply to what you might be wondering.
I respect that you have been trading 6 years and of course with that much of time you have experienced most ups and downs of the market. You will find extended experiences actually stops your knowledge growing as you become accustomed and adapt at a set course of action that is working out or still perceive to work or just a sense of I must be right cause I have been trading many years. And to be fair this applies to myself as well so i reflect on my current situation all the time not to go into such power trips.
You may be a profitable scalper and kudos to you for something I couldn't accomplish and I did try very hard. Sometimes when something works for you there is no need to search for additional methods. I have personally done this and one of the reasons I joined up this forum. When I joined this forum I already had legs growing but thought more methods mean more profit for myself. This is not the case. For more profit you expand what you currently do in all pairs. Exposure creates profit and not the number of methods.
In regards to time of the day, yes, I disagree major movements are reserved for the exclusive uk or us session. But I will agree most good opportunities does happen then. It is something that I don't need to follow with a schedule.
I have a fairly busy schedule during the day and the only thing that keeps me sane and handle all the different pairs is placing price alerts to key areas and when notified and if I'm available i will glance at the move. Most scenarios fall under the category of lack of momentum which are ignored and new price alerts are then set. I spend more time placing price alerts than watch price fluctuating.
Looking for source of income to replace your current job will not happen soon. You seem like a genuine direct person so here are the direct genuine answers. If a readers expectancy to withdraw profit is more than once per 3 months I would request to rethink.
With the idea of position building, you endure the short term losses and replenish with medium growth positions while the long term positions reward you. The definition of long term should be no less than 4 weeks of growth on a trend. You won't be able to pay yourself per week but you certainly pay yourself every few months in one large lump sum.
And it does grow to your expectations. After a year review of your trading statistics will reveal net profit in pips. Then you would work out your net average profit pip for week, month, 6 months. And this will be your minimum expectancy the following year. Even statistics by annually will fluctuate but after few years of trading the statistic numbers start stabilizing and then you will see your true return in pips and dollar value. Once your net pip profit per week exceeds your main income then you can quit your job.
You will be surprised at how fast it grows once you arrive there.
With the sophistication of current technology, you don't need to be glued to computer or quit your day job or lose sleep. I use my phone, iPad to do most.
I too, prefer to discuss why a trader is not profitable rather than traders that are profiting. And you are most welcome to ask any questions.
Merry Christmas to you as well.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Last edited Dec 23, 2010 12:23am
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Dec 23, 2010 12:17am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Hanselfx - Thank you very much for the detailed input and it's not at all intrusive but inspiring to readers. I hope only the best with trading career
Horned god- Also thank you for the detailed post and thank you for sharing. You may not realize but you said the golden phrase that I would recommend traders to read and highlight.
"each pair runs on different clocks"
The good thing is that later on in your trading career when you have positions in every major trend, you will notice a minus here is overcome with a positive there. This is the ultimate and the final stage.
The bad thing is that a new trader building position over many pairs will suffer the short term lag of seeing any positive move as the dust hasn't settled yet.
Some pairs will kick start as soon as you start building and some will stall. This is just the beginning stage and it can be overcome both mentally and financially by participating in one pair for now and witnessing what the method offers. However, I started in multiple pairs but luckily it was one of the best trendy periods of 2007 on most pairs.
I'm glad to see that you made the right connection about inevitability and wish you the best trading success.
For myself, a bad few months would mean that an inevitable trend will occur on that particular pair. And the longer the stall the better as the breakout will be significantly stronger and move further. This itself is knowing the inevitable opportunity tht will arise for myself to take back my losses and to reap greatly.
In regards to answering post about dukascopy, I'm surprised to hear such implementation. I don't understand why they would not allow withdrawals if you have open positions. I'm sorry to hear that and yes that would be cumbersome. I use fxcm with no such restrictions to withdrawal.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 3:47am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidKnight
Hi Fugly,
My scalping was on index futures (Nikkei and Hang Seng) and I felt it was too fine a line to continue with long-term. My success varied wildly with the market volatility. When the whole subprime debacle started in 2008 I had my best results ever as the daily ranges exploded. Scalping for me, leads to high emotion ranging from huge elation and being on top of the world to clinical depression. I tried hard to control these emotions but it seems that the fast paced style enhances whatever I feel. It was affecting my family life, my sanity...
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Thank you the detailed response.
Your experience shows through your detail.
With forex trading there is a certain degree of correlation between the pairs. I mentioned briefly in yesterday post that if eurusd trends gbpusd usually follows and usdjpy move in the opposite direction.
The prime opportunity is when all pairs across the whole board is moving. I assume most readers are aware of this and this is the period I trade. One of my golden phrases that I have said few times this week is, 'when the time is right you will have multiple opportunities [b]in a row[b]'
There is far more meaning than first meets the eye. I confirm myself that the period I am trading is moving with momentum when I continuously add positions with no loss. And the best periods are multiple 1hr and 4hr candles in a row. However, when I encounter the first or second loss this a personal hint that it is stalling and I do not need to trade any further. The best movements covers great distance where price will not likely to retrace back to.
During high activity it is correct to see movement across the whole board. And i know market is moving as a whole very fast when i receive multiple alerts to my cell phone in a row. And i choose to trade the pairs that looks promising. It is not hard to participate in few pairs if you don't trade the 5min. However in between 15min candle i will try few 5min trades.
In regards to trading time. If your trading platform allows may I ask you to try a little exercise for me. If its possible and if any other readers know how to do it please let us know in the thread. It is to change the opening hour of your platform so the start of the daily candle is at a hour of your choice. What you will notice is the day looks completely different with different looking 4 hour, daily and weekly candle. And what you will notice is that the opportunity you perceived to have missed is no longer valid. On the other hand, the area you didn't notice opportunity now shows as opportunity. The point I'm trying to get across is profitability does not depend on time of trading, type of candle pattern but soley on the speed of movement.
You do not need to be present trying to catch every good opportunities but simply catch when it does move and when you happen to be trading.
Draw a long line and highlight few sections. Close your eyes and with no sense of direction mark few dots. You will find dots in unmarked zone and perhaps few in the marked. As long as you have participated in a frequent interval you will inevitably hit the highlighted section. It is no use trying to sense where the highlighted intervals are as you are blind.
Sometimes when an alert arrives on my phone and I sit in front of computer. The market as whole seems to be moving with speed. After the first position or two and then to suffer a loss means that it is not a prime opportunity. There is absolutely no need to endure it anymore as most likely the price range will be revisited the next day.
In trading there are periods where every position survives and the opposite scenario where every position breaks even. It is a traders responsibility to trade when it does and avoid when it doesn't.
Now from the depth of your post I can sense that you are well aware of this already but the difference between you and I is that I place less focus on the reasoning of the move and simply participate almost blindly. And the reason I do this is that I know opportunities are not evenly spread out but arrive in clumps of good and clumps of bad; law of uneven distribution. I make sure I grab all clumps of good and ignore such occasions when market gives me 1 good and 1 bad and 1 good; a lukewarm scenario. A definite don't trade period is when you experience losses in a row. 3rd attempt us the maximum for myself. I'm only interested in the best opportunities that requires no analytical skill to capture profit.
With the above approach in mind you will find that you are filtering almost all bad periods out and keeping all the good periods with positions. It is almost a phenomena that has no scientific or mathematical reasoning behind it.
I sense that you are a person with great analytical skill with formal qualification. I find that people with higher form of qualification tend to observe, analysis, reason. It is how we are taught in college. And with trading it is far more simpler as only required trait is the observing.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 4:34am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good evening, all
Today is the exact same day as yesterday for eurusd
It will be wise to probe now on lower timeframes under the assumption it will breach the support 1.3080.
Get ready to stack heavily if breached with momentum. If it does breach with momentum it will drop forming a bold daily candle down.
You are also reaching open price of the month. This is approaching prime area and all we need is prime movements.
Feel free to ask any questions without hesitation.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 4:46am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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My first probe is just in from 15min chart
1.3094 SL @ 1.3102
eurusd 15min
Its taken out -9 pips before I even post this message up.
And thats it. I stop.
It is this simple to control your risk and tendency to overtrade.
Also there is no eye popping momentum, no need to over stress and force a position in there.
I will try again at next engulf pattern.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Edit: The golden rule to stacking is that the best opportunities to stack/trade is when you have multiple success in a row. The worst time to trade is when you suffer losses in a row. Take advantage of one scenario but ignore the other.
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Dec 23, 2010 4:58am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Tonight it is moving slower than yesterday at US session.
Dont expect much here but that doesnt stop me probing.
Placing one more probe (2nd for today) from 1hr eurusd
Sell 1.3100, SL above the high 1.3112
A 12 pip probe. This dies and I will walk away and reset price alerts
Nothing really to stress just a normal cruise.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 5:03am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Personal thoughts of current momentum?
Abysmal
Star rating of current trading period?
2 out of 5
What are you anticipating?
1. New 1 hour candle with ema crossed over. If there is a good movement it happens most often just around cross
2. Less than 33% retrace - always best scenario
3. Breaching with momentum 1.3080 which would be the end of this siege for eurusd. The potential profit is very large if breached.
eurusd daily
I love it when it stalls. The inevitable fact that the built pressure will soon explode out with long trend. It increases my heartbeat faster day by day.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 5:19am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Its over for this trading period for myself.
There is nothing to trade. No momentum, no confirmation.
You will lose more if you stay and trade at current situation.
This is the point to stop and reset your price alerts.
No one can profit at the moment.
Lost 2 probes and I rarely do 3 attempts.
eurusd 1hr
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Setting price alerts @ 1.31275 and 1.3095
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Dec 23, 2010 5:22am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustam
Graeme,
Seeing as there is no momentum, is the 2nd probe still open or do you close it and wait for a better opportunity?
Rustam
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Good question.
I dont usually close probes as they are usually less than 10 pips per probe (on average). Perhaps its the wrong mentality to consider them as tissue but I do.
Probing is far more effective than watching raw price fluctuating. Probes that survive bring in the biggest reward as they are in first.
Most importantly please dont sit there and force a position in their to stick. The best time to trade is when you effortlessly stack positions with each position going into profit without much hesitation. That is a 5 star opportunity.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Edit: -20 pips from 2 probes today, london session
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Dec 23, 2010 5:27am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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The reason we are focusing on eurusd is that most of the traders who do message me are focusing on this pair. It is a universal pair for most.
It might not happen in a day or a week but I will show all to the best of my ability at the least a prolonged growth of few weeks that does create few thousand pip reward at the end. Enough to replenish + add profit into your capital.
The very next movement on eurusd that does move 300pip+ will be ours.
Let us be patient and await.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 5:31am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidKnight
Thanks for the reply Graeme. I'll continue to put effort into finding the right time to trade where I can get multiple successes in a row. You are also right that I am analytical and I know it is more of a curse than a blessing with discretionary trading. My first couple years were filled with trading plans and many many explicit rules. Ironically my trading didn't start to become profitable until I let go and trusted my gut.
Anyhow, thanks again.
With season greetings,
MK
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Thank you for your reply, Midknight.
Your input is highly regarded and please dont hesitate to ask anything on your mind. And that applies to every reader as everyone has equal opportunity.
I hope that I can achieve the right demonstration this time to finally know that it was all worthwhile.
Thank you.
Graeme
Edit: I will start answering the PMs from 2 days ago. Apologies for the delay.
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Dec 23, 2010 5:39am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Just about to walk away when I received price alert.
I re open chart to see this in my first view
eurusd 1hr
eurusd 5min
Abysmal.
No trade. No one can profit from those sudden knee jerk spikes. Useless. The next 5min candle shold have less than 33% retrace that buyers find trouble pushing it up anymore. 50% already. No thank you as I know I will lose pips on this.
Resetting price alerts @ 1.30882
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Dec 23, 2010 5:48am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Thank you all for the warm compliments.
I too wish everyone a safe, healthy, loving new year.
Bless you all.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Im watching eurusd. Something is tickling my fancy little bit at the moment but I need more than a tickle for my 3rd probe.
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Dec 23, 2010 5:50am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MidKnight
Hey Graeme, may I ask why no upside price alert set? I guess you strictly have a short bias at this point, but I thought have an upper point of interest as well.
With kind regards,
MK
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Good observation.
I still have the same upside alert at 1.3125. And yes I do cover both scenarios as always preached but this demontration which started from this week is keeping it very very simple (and preferably for this time one direction). We will take it up a notch when all participants who are following (including myself) has witnessed and tasted that large slice of profit and then I will add more into going against hindsight. Not many traders are too keen on that subject yet.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 6:05am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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New 1 hr candle.
My wish:
Ofcourse a bold candle down with less than 33% retrace that closes below 1.3080 and the further it closes away from it the better
Very low momentum. I will not probe early but will probe when retrace is established and the price starts to drop down just below the open price of this 1hr candle. That would have better probability.
Best candles are those that opens and just charges straight forward creating multiple stacking opportuntities on all lower timeframes.

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Dec 23, 2010 6:46am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good explanation hornedgod.
That was a very nice read.
Constant frequency is key to trading.
Came back from dinner and we are still at the same place as the open.
New 4hr candle coming up
Please set price alerts and have a break.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 6:55am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Now.
Probe in and took pic few seconds after
Based purely on assumption and the imminent breakout
Mental stop loss 1.30959.
Im ready to close this probe the moment it stops flickering near the support
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Dec 23, 2010 6:55am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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+10 pip.
This could be it gentleman
New 1hr candle coming
Expect the usual retrace on all new candles
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Dec 23, 2010 7:01am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Out.
Pic took few seconds of coming out.
It was hit and run for myself.
-0.9 pips
The good thing is that the pervious 1 hour candle has made a new low. Its still ok.
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Dec 23, 2010 7:06am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Start probing.
Using SL at high of the new 1hr candle or wait for next 15min candle.
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Dec 23, 2010 7:14am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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This is big or nothing.
Make it into reality.
Im in 1.3088, mental stop loss @ 1.3097
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Dec 23, 2010 7:18am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cameron1st
.3086 for me 
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Well done.
Hope all readers see the reasons that we are taking this trade. It is no use for me to shout orders. Everything is currently aligned. Reward is big and risk is minimal.
This is one stage where one needs to be bold and test their theory. Probe sticks and its paved gold from here. We are standing at a crucial point.
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Dec 23, 2010 7:21am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Not the very best signs on eurusd 5min
Still its worth the risk for the potential reward.
Hold it in and stay in the game and see what the market does

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Dec 23, 2010 7:24am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Is the market planning to take another probe?
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Dec 23, 2010 7:26am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Dec 23, 2010 7:40am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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The price has arrived at an crucial level whether it will break out or not.
For example, if it does break below the support 1.3080 but there is a lack of momentum I would not stack.
The reason is that fickle momentum like this will be most likely revisited the following day.
Momentum propels the position into territory that requires a large change in the main trend to have the price comeback.
A good volatile breakout paves the start of a new trend and we are not interested in anything else.
My stop loss was just hit and i am out with -10 pips. 3 probes all failed for myself today. It would now take more than assumption but a hard confirmation for me to trade again.
I would look for entry when bold candles on 5min, 15min, 30min start appearing with less than 33% retrace.
Today I have -30 pip realized loss to my tally.
Someone might wonder why I might not continue to watch and focus.
The simple reason is that there is no need to place myself to force a trade as there are plenty more movements to take advantage of. Constant frequency is the key. Besides if it does breakout with volatile movement there are plenty more opportunties the next day or even next week as a monthly candle has plenty of opportuntiy holes.
However, I am placing new price alerts but little bit further out.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 8:03am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cameron1st
Thank you Graeme, that is a very good lesson on when to slow down with the probing and not overtrade.
Kindest Regards,
Cam
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Hello Cameron
Yes. At the moment it is definitely a no trade for eurusd.
It is impossible to extract profit out of current movement.
Unfortunately, it looks like day 3 for eurusd for not moving.
That is fine as we have been conservative and the only damage is the few ammos we spent on probing.
In a traders starting phase a selected pair may not move for few weeks. It is the belief in the traders own self that will hold him/her together.
Days like this will most likely have the next day revisit todays price range. If today is destined to have a volatile breakout right after we all turn off the computer, the move will flow into next day and next week and even next month. One of the main reason why trading longer hours does not increase productivity in forex.
Today wasnt as exciting as yesterdays US session and hope readers are not disheartened but there is nothing one can do to force the market to move.
Good night all
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 8:20am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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And ofcourse this happens just to embarass me all together. How rude.
To anticipate for it to happen and then to miss it by few minutes..
However, I will not continue to trade. There will be more opportuntity for me tomorrow.
For those traders who are following eurusd and have just arrived to witness the move. Please be cautious in adding positions and make sure there is momentum behind you.
And please dont forget the best optimum trading opportunity is when you have multiple success in a row when adding positions. 1 loss, 2 loss is definite sign to stop stacking until further new confirmation (preferably a new 1hr, 4hr candle)
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 23, 2010 8:28pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning, all
Woke up to see that it didnt require today for the price range of yesterday to be revisited.
That is a nasty spike indeed. Something that is not often seen till a nasty news release as NFP.
May I please request all readers to read this post as this will tie in everything we have done this week and the questions by midknight yesterday.
There are few traders who currently hold few thousand pip profit that has grown for the last few weeks but also hold unsettling large realized loss. For the traders that have produced their trade list through private messaging, there is a striking similarity in between them.
1. They are currently enjoying the nice floating profit because they have constantly traded in the market and hence fortunately caught the volatile movements. Well done
2. However it is this constant active trading that also brings in the unwanted large number of losses in a row
For those traders, look back at your trade list and notice that positions that are surviving till today is most often from same 1hr candle, 4hr candle or same day.
Adversely, they will see that groups of losses often happens in the same one sitting.
There is far more meaning than what this represents alone. For the sharp observant who can connect the above trading 'statistics' and the distribution of opportunity in the market, they will realize that there are good opportunities grouped together in a row and bad opportunities grouped in a row. There is also a mix of good and bad opportunties which is considered bad altogether.
If O denotes good opportunity/momentum and X denotes bad opportunity/range then a forex market can be translated and will look like this on a long thin tape.
OOXOXXOXOOXOOOXXXOOOOOOOOOOOOOXOOOO OOXXOOOOOOXOXOXXOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOXOXOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
If one is to highlight the same above series with segments of more than 5 O's, it will look like this
OOXOXXOXOOXOOOXXXOOOOOOOOOOOOOXOOOOOOXXOOOOOOXOXOXXOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOXOXOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Coming back to the above trader who currently holds large unrealized profit but also holding large realized loss, you have been basically trading non-stop hence picked up all the bad parts of the beginning as realized loss and fortunately due to the traders persistence encountered the first set of prolonged 'O's.
If 'F' denotes a trader trading with full focus, the first part of the above tape will look like this:
OFFOFFXOXFXOXOFOXOFFFOOXFXXOOFOOOOOFOOOOOOX
This is the translation of what happened to the trader and why he/she has large realized loss but currently holding large unrealized profit. You have been more or less lucky that a) your capital sustained till you inevitably hit the first row of 'O' b) your persistence saved you c) it was more luck than anything else
For myself as I know the law of uneven distribution and knowing good spaced out trading in a constant frequency is the key. My trading will look more like this on the first segment of the long tape.
OFOXOXXOXOFOXOFOFOXXXOOOFOFFFFOFOOFOOOOOOX
I space out the focus and once it catches on I will raise the aggressiveness. The big difference between myself and the above trader is that a) I know and abide the rule of law of uneven distribution b) I was more aggressive when it was favouring me and was not intimidated by my previous unsuccessful attempts
Now ofcourse this all sounds like good common sense. The point is that when the market is favouring a trader with a prolonged volatile opportuntiy, you will have multiple successful positions. When it doesnt you will suffer rows of losses. I cut my losses at 3 attempt and stack continuously when Im successful until the first 1 or 2 losses. This itself is encoding good risk:reward into your trading approach.
And yes, it is this simple to reduce workload, reduce stress, reduce potential losses, protect my capital and still have interest in the best areas.
Not only does the above keep my trading schedule feasible but it also exposes myself to the best of the times to trade that has the best probability that the price will not return to the previous range.
Yesterday, I had 3 probes die and I quit trading for the day. This is not from gut feeling but the experience and the simple test I just performed that tells me today is another X. A good series of O is most often moves that are 200, 300+ and start of new direction/trend that can be captured the next 4 hours or the next morning as it will be in a series of other Os.
There is absolutely no reason a trader should be trading consecutive long hours.
In forex, long hours does not increase productivity. But constant frequency in spaced out probing till it does latch on.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Today I wont be trading. From what I saw this week, it is another X. If it is a start of a long series of O, I will have more opportuntity early next week. Hope this now makes clear sense as to why.
There is always more than 1 bold weekly candle in a trend gentlemen
Last edited Dec 23, 2010 8:50pm
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Dec 23, 2010 9:11pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iPlayGames
Dear Mr. Graeme, yesterday was also a hectic day for me. at around 11am FxPro time, I noticed several inside bars across multiple currency pairs. so I decided to send in probes if opportunities should arise, and also try to stack if possible. here is what happened:
USDJPY - 3 probes, all hit be
USDCHF - 3 probes, 2 be, 1 surviving
GBPJPY - 2 probes, all hit be
GBPUSD - 2 probes, all hit SL, lost $2
EURUSD - 2 probes, 1 be, 1 SL, lost $1
EURGBP - 2 probes, all hit SL, lost $2
USDCAD - 1 probe, sl was hit, lost $1
so all in al it wan`t a successful...
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Good attempt.
The only thing you require is to do the same approach when the market is favourable.
Yes, you will get exhausted when you try extracting blood out of stone. Conserve your focus for other needed times.
However, well done.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 27, 2010 8:34am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good evening, all
Hope everyone is enjoying their festive celebration.
There is certainly alot more activity today than compared to monday of last week.
Currently, there is great selling pressure with good momentum on eurusd, gbpusd. Weekly retrace has been established and its poised to go down.
Great distances are covered with great momentum. Please dont forget this mantra.
If this momentum is prolonged and continues straight forward until end of the week and also closing below the support of 1.3080 then we are at the area where price will not come back (near the open of weekly candle)
We will never know until we anticipate and participate.
eurusd daily
eurusd weekly
Looks good on paper. And this is our trading goal for this week for eurusd. Now the market might not move to our anticipation but if it does it is our responsibility to make it into reality.
Apologies for not replying to any of the private messages as I am currently aborad on a vacation. Will answer them as soon as possible.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 27, 2010 8:39am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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The usual cycle of my trading habits can be generalised in this sequence:
1. During weekend, best pairs are pre-selected
2. 2 hours before asian open on monday morning, I double confirm the weekend pre-selection are still holding value
3. I place 1 probe straight away for the weeks/months that opens and charges straight forward. This is do or die scenario but brings in excellent reward on the occasion.
4. I watch the retrace of the movement that goes against my hindsight and wait till it starts to lose power.
5. I will probe
6. I will continue to stack until the power of the intended direction dies down/weakens
Best type of weeks are small retraces that are less than 33% or maximum 50%
As long as the week's candle does close as per my hindsight I will definitely have a position or few on the wick.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Last edited Dec 27, 2010 8:51am
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Dec 27, 2010 8:38pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning all
Thank you for the warm compliment alpiner.
Great analogy.
Personally I focus on position building so I do keep the whole picture of the movement on my mind.
Due to personal time restrictions, if you wish to observe 1 or 2 hours before london open and then to execute on the 1st hour, yes you can still build positions.
However, you will have:
1. Less number of entry opportuntities as it needs to meet with the given time
2. Far greater period of no participation in the market
Not many people who trade 1 or 2 hours at london open will become a position trader as it takes far more persistence than usual. And this is not the case with most traders as they are in a rush to see profit.
Hope this helps.
Midknight - Thank you for the question. Im not sure if any of the readers remember in the earlier part of the thread where I show where I place price alerts during weekend. As a trader with extensive experience, there are certain scenariors where you personally prefer to happen in the market. Some traders have such list from the best to worse and then choose to trade the best only. I am similar however I tend to watch the few pairs and not one.
The pair that I focus most is a pair that had a bold weekly candle that has recently crossed over 5/10ema. This bold weekly candle is a bearish/bullish engulf or pennant breakout or simple resistance or support breakout.
The pair that I least focus is a pair that I already have extensive number of positios that struggled to reach any new highs or lows the previous week. There is no point to add positions into such pair until a new movement occurs.
Now, one of the previous post you asked about trading both side of the direction. You were wondering why, how. I think it is a good time to discuss such matter as the pair we are focusing on is at a level of uncertainty.
eurusd daily
This current up movement could be a short term (1 to 3 weeks) retrace or the start of new trend. Few traders who are trading eurusd with me currently for now, we will need to patiently wait it out as we are only trading one direction for this particular exercise. Probing only at the new highs where buyers seem to lose power.
For few traders who noticed the up movement from yesterday and think that this is the change of major trend. You could also be correct and im very pleased to see that your analysis has flexibility. I hope for these traders they would realize why I participate on both side of the movement as the only cost of few probes could result in my participation from very early of the new trend which is at the best possible place to survive.
For midknight and others, here is an important chart that could help you understand. For the last few years I have seen such cycle happen in a repeat. It is the flow of positions.
If this is a 'generalised' movement on a daily chart over the period of few weeks
I have found on many occasions that the position flow I have
If you think about the above scenario very carefully. Over a given period of few weeks I am technically fully hedging my positions. However I am also strategically placing my interest to reap the 'inevitable' big move that will happen sooner or later by simply following the current movement happening.
Does this really happen?
All the time.
eurusd daily
And this is happening to current eurusd as well.
You can fit the above template to any pair over any given period of time.
My personal conceptual trading mindframe.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 28, 2010 9:36pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good afternoon, all
Just a quick courtesy message for all.
Im still on vacation and will be returning home tomorrow.
In regards to all traders who are following eurusd with myself.
Current weekly candle has a very long wick.
We all know what long wicks stand for. Wick is at the top meaning buyers losing power.
It is harder for price to gather strength again just to climb back up to previous high established on the same candle. This applies to any timeframe.
Eurusd, gbpusd had a whopping down day yesterday.
Gbpusd broke the support and is better scenario than eurusd.
Eurusd still lingering at 1.3080. Current bullish engulf on 4hr. Buyers are back in control however, tonight at UK/US session if price retest the support get ready to spend few probes under the anticipation 'that it will break that support.' For eurusd traders, since we are only trading one pair and one direction for this exercise, we need to maintain a greater patience.
gbpusd traders are at a better position as the monthly candle established retrace and now heading past down opening price of the month.
For the readers who are little confused at current progress, soon we will witness through the efforts of fellow traders at the very least few thousand pip growth. At the end of the exercise, I will request few traders to post their statement live if they dont mind for all readers to analyize their trading pattern.
Apologies I havent been able to answer any PMs.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S eurusd, set your price alerts to 1.3090
P.P.S gbpusd, once buyers lose control, probe and stack again
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Dec 29, 2010 12:43am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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eurusd 1hr
Showing clear signs of buyers slowing down
Best time to probe
I see opportuntiy and its getting warmer
All signs show DOWN on eurusd, gbpusd
It could be the day we have been waiting for the last 2 weeks.
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Dec 29, 2010 5:32am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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And I hope everyone is catching the move
eurusd 1hr
Get ready to break that 1.3080 on eurusd
4hr bearish engulf forming with great momentum
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Dec 29, 2010 7:23pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning, all
For the few traders who had positions from the previous day to watch most of them or all of them to be taken out at breakeven yesterday will undoubtedly feel uneasy.
Buyers are back in control and there is nothing we could do.
Hold on and keep faith in your monthly hindsight.
If it doesnt work it was not your fault.
There have been periods of 4 to 6 weeks in the past where a given pair was stuck in a range. We are currently in our 2nd week with eurusd.
Write down your losses and hold on until the inevitable new move comes along.
The current up trend could be start of a new direction with eurusd + gbpusd. We just dont know however for now we are only participating as per our monthly hindsight.
Until eurusd monthly hindsight changes direction as per our price interpretation we will hold on.
Holding onto your faith especially in trading is not easy and I know it very well.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Dec 30, 2010 8:06pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning, all
eurusd, gbpusd is currently in buyers control
eurusd had a clean 5/10ema crossover on daily
Today being the last day of december one has to look and analyse what december has become.
For the last 2 weeks we hoped that the eurusd follow through what november did however it did not work out.
At this point one has to assess what january will be like and its uncertain for eurusd. Their is no clear indication on the monthly chart.
For the last 2 weeks and for the current exercise, we are only participating in one direction and one has to maintain a further patience.
For the traders who are following eurusd, my suggestion would be to probe only at the new highs when buyers are stalling. Normally when I participate both direction I will probe both the new highs and new lows at stalls. However, please do not deviate from the initial plan and for now attend to one direction.
Gbpusd traders are in a better position than eurusd.
This is crucial phase of ones trading. Dont try to force a profit to catch up to your realized losses. Must keep level headed and maintain your belief in inevitability.
In regards to probing, it is simply overtrading to be probing all night all day. A simple few probe at new highs and new lows is the best area. And if it doesnt work out, reset price alert and walk away.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Jan 8, 2011 9:00pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good morning, all
Thank you for the continued interest.
It seems, finally after 2 weeks of waiting our eurusd has finally made a move for us. And this is one of the inevitability of trading; the fact that the price WILL move sooner or later. Sometimes there are few weeks of range followed by few months of trend, sometimes there are few days of range followed by few weeks of trend. And the longer the stall the further the price will propel after it moves out. How simple is that? This is the only fact you need to know and act upon. Recently, I attended an exclusive seminar hosted by a reknowned economist. It was a very expensive endeavour and I was looking forward to it. Although there was great detail in his work, it was more damage than help in most peoples mind. You dont need to know every little thing about economy to be profitable trader. Just a sound common sense is all that is required. Some of the items he presented was so high tech, I wondered how on earth traders before the computer era ever made profits....... I got up and left at that point.
Just before typing this message, I did go through the posts and the private messages I have kindly received. Thank you.
And there are few things which concerns me that I would like to address to all.
1. There are some traders who have been following eurusd trade for the last 3 weeks only to have missed this week as their capital have bust out. One trader has over -1500 pips of losses from stacking since week of christmas. Im sure there are few readers who are guilty of this and nodding in silence. If this is you, then you need to a) pick better times to trade b) stack at better times c) or learn not to press execute all the time. From my personal statistics I have never and never will endure more than -300 pips on one given pair for one week.
2. There are some traders who have been following eurusd trade for the last 3 weeks only to have missed this week because of fear. They suffered 2 weeks of loss and started questioning the whole theme behind the plan they have created. This worries me as there will be times in the market where there will be more than 4 weeks of range followed by few weeks of trend which they will miss out with the wrong mentality (and this applies to the trader 1 above). Furthermore, few have jumped ship onto another pair only to sink there as well. Thats the same as jumping around indicators or systems. Stick to your wife.
3. There are some traders who exited the trade during the week to cover their losses. Nothing wrong from doing that but if this week was the start of something huge, you have hindered your own chance of profiting greater. This trader is similar to the trader 2 above. It is part fear and uncertainty of ones self. If you continue to close out profitable trades to replenish your losses you are more or less chasing your own tail.
I believe that covers most scenarios happening behind the scene.
On a different subject, I would like to discuss everyones excitement. First of all, I greatly appreciate your appraisals and kind words. I read them and even though I dont publically acknowledge them (as to keep this thread as small as possible), I welcome your words in my mind.
Eurusd had a great week and everyone who were participating seems overjoyed with their new few hundred pip unrealized profit. Just what if this week was another range..? I bet the tone and the atmosphere of the latest posts in the thread would be different and at least one private message with the title 'please explain.' There is nothing wrong with passing the cheer and high-fives however please dont allow the market movement dictate your emotion. 300 pip moves intraweek does not merit a bottle of vintage Krug but a few hundred to few thousand pip in few weeks and months deserve just an approval nod and a smile.
Just what if this coming week goes against last week and becomes part of the same range?
There are some traders thinking like the above already. They have positions opened and they have experienced losses before or scenarios where they had great week only to have the next week come back and slap them backwards. It is these kind of thoughts that will ruin your chances in greater profiting as you will have anxiety attacks and heart palpitations at every miniscule tick movement against you. Hold your grounds and be a warrior. Win the battle and bring home the princess or die in battle honourably. Envision another great week and add positive influence into your thought process. Another week with less than 10% retrace would be swell.
Some wonder how I did with eurusd this week and my plans to diversify. I currently hold 14 sell positions all moved to BE. Total unrealized profit is just under 2900 pips. This is not because I was super duper trader but I remained true to my monthly hindsight which is part of the universal price action interpretation (that I gained in 3x20 exercise). Since we started trading together since week of christmas I currently have about -530 pips of realized loss to settle. As soon as monday opens I will close last 3 or 4 legs to settle the losses and add very small profit into my capital (remember you can close more now to capture potentially smaller but guaranteed profit or close less to capture greater potential rewards). However, I might not close any after the first looks of the opening. Some weeks will have great burst from the open till end. Then Im done but will probe at new highs of the week (normally I would probe both new highs and lows but for now Im only taking one direction trades as everyone else)
My sincerest gratitute to all who have contributed to this thread in the last few days. Great analysis and im surprised to read them as they are so similar to my own thought process.
Special thank you to Tonkar for his statistics (post 3912). Great job and I request all readers to have another look in the pdf file. Even with static parameters, Im not surprised to see a 1.66 profit factor and this itself is already a good result. I hope what you have discovered becomes a framework to your trading approach. And the framework would be that price might not move in a day or two but will move in a year. Pairs have more than 1000 pip average range in a given year so in another words sometime in the given year it did trend. In regards, to your stop loss and the results being better may not prove to be in the following year as you are correct about 12 months not being enough time to gather statistical data. Baccarat that has 8 decks in the shoe requires at least 50000 hands to confirm a hard statistical edge. And thats with finite variables within 8 decks of cards whileas with the market there are infinite variables hence nothing can be confirmed but just continues to flow on and on into infinity and forever, just like space.
Quick word to iplaygames. What hornedgod has pointed out for your benefit is true. I knew a trader who earns 90K a year who decides to automatically deposit $300 per week into his trading account. He places initial $700 deposit and considers that mainly for margin and every week $300 goes in. He is patiently waiting for a long trend to happen but knows that he has only 300 pips per week to spend on. First week, he loses 300 pips. Thats $300 from $1000 he just lost which is already more than 30% realized loss.
Is trading causing him financial trouble?
No.
From return % he just inflicted -30% on his account!
Seemingly, but the trader is controlling his risk.
Control his risk?? Risking 30% of ones capital every week is risk itself Graeme!
The only risk is when trader goes above -300 pips he set for himself. In other words, risking more than he can 'afford' to lose.
And this trader kept adding $300 every week and just letting his initial position run and added one more position few weeks later. Half a year later he cashed out 2500 pips on first position and 2200 pips on the 2nd position. A total of 4700 pips and he had about $8000 saved up in his capital. Once he closed out the positions he had a grand total of $12700 in his trading account which $9000 was from his personal deposits. Thats more than 25% annualised return when banks/stocks/property offer 5-15% per annum on average. And he was content at his small achievement and he built a great foundation from his experience. He still trades today but keeps his job as his main source of income. Hope few readers learn something from this story.
For the furture readers, this is what eurusd looked like this week.
eurusd 4hr
There were so many opportunties the whole week was flashing red in my eyes. Less than 33% retrace on 4hr candles everywhere. Something went horribly wrong if you made less than 100 pips this week. On any system or method for that matter.
Sincerely,
Graeme
Last edited Jan 9, 2011 1:11am
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Jan 8, 2011 10:16pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cameron1st
Hello Graeme,
Welcome and sorry that the seminar was different than the expectations, but on the positive side you had the chance to see something that would not work for you at that seminar (so -1 things to be bothered about)  *like Edison, found 10000 ways that didn't work*
Thank you for the EURUSD analysis, I think everyone's watching it for next week as it's an even more critical week than the one that closed for the simple reason that it would show momentum continuation or... back to square one: probing.
Kindest Regards,
Cam
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Thank you for the compliments Cameron.
I just read your recent private message and well done.
Just letting you know and everyone else that today i will definitely find time to answer all the pms.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Just going out for few hours.
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Jan 9, 2011 4:33am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good evening, all
It is sunday evening here and soon I would be getting ready for sleep.
I have spent the afternoon answering all the private messages so please forward me your message if I accidentally missed them out.
There was great variance in the types of questions. Im happy to say that there has been big progress since start of this thread few months ago when most questions were about my exact entry method. How you enter is not important but when you enter.
And this is why alot of mechanical trading that has rigid fixed entry rules and exit rules grow your equity slower than most expectations. There are few mechanical trading methods that has proven profitable but only ever so slightly. 20% growth a year? Traders get excited that its similar to Warren Buffet. 20% growth on billions and billions is incredible but 20% return on $20000 USD is $4000. Not bad considering the return % but its not an amount we can live on. Professional mechanical traders have at the vert least few hundred thousands to trade.
We have chosen to become a bigger trader. We are discretionary traders with a touch of mechanical rules. And the mechanical rules (price interpretation) just helps us with sorting out good from bad scenarios to trade. We aim three digit returns per year cause trading will be your main source of income in the years to come.
With discretionary trading comes few catches. Since there are no rigid trade rules, one has to overcome their own personal emotions first. Fear, greed, anxiety. This takes time and effort to overcome. This brings me to something that I wish to talk about in detail today. Time to stack. Many traders ask when is the best time to stack. The most simple answer is:
1. When the whole market is buzzing with movement. Tick data flying in furiously and all pairs are moving.
2. Your probe is alive and you continue to stack effortlessly until the first close of a position at a loss.
Point 1 is most important. The default view of my metatrader has eurusd 4hr, gbpusd 4hr, usdjpy 4hr, gbpjpy 4hr and in that order with the usual emas and indicators as shown in my charts. I know by quick glances at each pair that I know if market is actually buzzing with traders. We need traders to piggyback on.
Point 2. I mentioned it before many traders are still going past it. A trader continues to blindly stack in a state of greed. More risk does not mean more profit. Please say this 10 times with me. Because you risk more doesnt mean it will bring more. More positions doesnt necessary mean more profit.
This is our first exercise and upon completion you will definitely know the different type of feelings you receive when there is compelling momentum and there is none or little (this should have been one of the lessons you would have picked up on with 3x20 exercise). Soon you will be homing into only those favourable moments because you know what they taste like. Like bee homing into a bloomed flower.
One of the things I regret to have posted in this thread is my live trades few weeks ago on 5min timeframe where I had 10 trades in the gap of 1 hour. Although there was nothing wrong at that instance as my personal experience indicated that I should be stacking aggressively many readers are trying very hard to place tens of positions in a day or a week.
If I may strongly suggest, for the current eurusd exercise in which we are aiming for few thousand profit in the allowed time frame of few weeks, that just 2 positions in early is more than enough. Ofcourse this might not be the case in your thought process if you just spent -1600 pips in the last 3 weeks. Just aim for 2 positions and then one here and one there and then few more the following week. It is ironic for me to contradict myself as I have 14 positions this week but may I suggest everyone to take it slightly slower and aim between 2 to 4 positions in a given week. Dont forget there are plenty of chances the following week. There are more than 1 bold candle in a trend.
I have 14 positions and realized loss of -530 pips. That is more than acceptable while 19 positions with realized loss of -1800 pips (this is happening to one trader and Im posting this with permission) is not going to work in the long run even if you have 4000+ pips of unrealized profit. You will tire yourself out emotionally and sooner or later (and odds will catch up) when your hindsight stops working halfway there and retraces to BE you will literally tear your heart out (also one of the reasons that I trade both directions).
My suggestion:
You would even lose less when the initial first position/probe survives and with the stop loss moved to breakeven, then blindly opening one more position 100 pips later setting the stop loss of the second position to the price you bought on the first position. This way you risk 1 position for the price of 2. Please use this instead if you have difficulty with stacking and time management. I have used this countless times and it works if the trend is valid or it will close out at loss if it retraces. If it does retrace 100 pips to close both positions out then it wasnt a trend in the first place so it doesnt matter. Please use this instead for those in trouble.
All the best wishes for this coming week. It will be an exciting week for the following eurusd traders. Do not be disheartened to see your positions die at breakeven. However, be bold and loud if the direction continues on. Anticipate the best scenario which is less than 33% retrace or my favourite on eurusd which is 10 pips. If it does retrace a classic 50%, make sure you are not intimidated to add on the price coming back down.
Hope to see great results this week.
Extra hours does not increase productivity. Please use price alerts to your cell phone and enjoy your life outside trading.
My thoughts are with everyone.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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Jan 9, 2011 6:23am
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Bakuli - Thank you for the warm compliment, Lee. Also wishing you and your family a safe and healthy 2011 and the years to come.
Fana - Thank you for the interest. Unfortunately there is no preventive measure to avoid or lessen a fakeout in any system or method. However, you could have a mindset to give the market 1 unit as a loss but prepared to take 10 units back when its willing to. I personally have 1 or 2 attempts and if both fails then I leave. A valid flying buddha should not make any new highs or lows above or below the flying buddha setup. Flying buddha is still being traded by a colleague of mine who finds great success. Most mondays are flying buddhas that will change direction of the friday's movement. You will find good success at that point. I trade it quiet often.
Red-Dragon - Thank you for submitting your results. Fantastic.
From what I can see on your excel. It looks like you use 0.05 and 0.1 lot size. Very good and sensible. Realized net profit @ $459.04 and unrealized profit @ $4127.89. You plan to close 4 out of 5 trades on monday and keep one. Good. First trade was taken on 11th November 2010 and about 80 trades in total. Great personal statistics.
It looks like we have ourselves the first thousand pip+ trader in our thread.
Please join me to congratulate red-dragon. There will be many readers dying to know how you trade only 2 hours per day. Hope you dont mind answering to their private messages.
I combed through some of your trades on the charts and I get the gist of how and when you might take the trades. It seems you took the information I provided and tailored to suit you better. Great job.
Well done!
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Good night everyone. Stay warm
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Jan 9, 2011 6:03pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX
Glad to see you back Graeme. Unfortunately, December wasn't a good month for me in regards to active market participation due to work and personal commitments. Feel bad to miss out on following your active market commentary these past few weeks on EU. Planning to devote myself back to this thread starting this week.
I would also like give a quick update on my current performance of trades I shared in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3849
All my brief trades in late november/early december have...
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Good morning, all
Thank you for the continued interest.
Superb results. I read your post twice and it sounds like you have definitely gained new insights and experience over the last few months. Well done and I encourage you on forward.
It was wrong of me to assume there was no 1000+ pip traders amongst us. Words cant express how content I feel to see your results. I sincerely hope this is start of a strong foundation for everyone.
Stay defensive in the early stage of the week.
Use 1 probe early and if it fails, use another probe at new highs where there is stall.
Anticipate the best scenario.
The usual general cycle of actions that we perform on a constant frequency.
Looking forward to more results this week.
Im heading out to airport this morning. I will read your inputs throughout the week but I might not be able to answer. However, I will answer them all when I return.
And please use price alerts by VPS server or mobile4x.com.
Learn how not to stare at the charts
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S Decided not to close eurusd positions. No special reason except for the fact that the size of my losses are currently insignificant to the greater goal I intend achieve.
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Jan 15, 2011 10:06pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Good afternoon, all
Thank you for your inputs.
I have read all your posts since my last entry.
I can definitely notice the difference in tone compared to last weekend. No one is passing the cheer anymore and there is a whiff of negativity (most likely derived from frustration) in the air.
Ofcourse it is disturbing to see your positions that were 200, 300+ pips erode away into nothing. The fact that such matter still disturbs a trader shows that they are still on the early levels of emotional hurdle.
A trader could have closed all his sell positions at the opening of the week to bank few hundred pips but watch the price move further down this week; you would feel the exact same feelings as now.
Ladies/Gents, you are letting the market effect your emotion. There is no need to get upset to something we have no control. We all participated accordingly and stayed true to our intentions. And that itself will bring profitability eventually. Market represents infinite space and time that is ever expanding.
This week was more or less this on the infinite timescale:
eurusd weekly
Are you going to tell me that you will never encounter these in your continuous trading career?:
eurusd weekly
This week represents a tiny tiny tiny speck of the whole picture. Just like the size of our earth is insignificant compared to rest of the universe. Insignificant.
Ofcourse this week meant the whole world to a trader if:
1. Spend -1800 pips reazlied loss to gain 4400 pips unrealized profit then to lose it all
2. Spent hours and hours staring at the chart throughout the whole week
3. In a rush to create profit
As mentioned in the P.S of my last post, I did not close any positions. Hence, I too am sitting on just below -600 pips realized loss. Should I change my strategy now? Should I question my whole belief?
But then again what is my belief?
My belief is that, sooner or later, I will catch those inevitable mega rides as long as I continously attempt in a constant frequency. My attempts are regulated by my price action interpretation which is also applied universally on all aspects of my trading decisions.
And thats it. My whole trading belief/system/method/ideology/philosophy rolled into 2 sentences that I know has proven profitable against the test of time because it is not based on swanky-super-duper indicator or ea but common logical sense. The same common logical sense that makes the world go around, help us fall in love, find success in business and we all have it on an intuitive level.
Continuing on..
Last edited Jan 15, 2011 11:24pm
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Jan 15, 2011 10:17pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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For those traders who just spent half of the week glued to their trading platform, please refer to below eurusd 4hr chart.
eurusd 4hr
For example:
Please learn how 'not' to trade all the time
So what do we do from now on?
We continue what we started and it seems this exercise is going to take few weeks to finish. This is because we started in a pair that is ranging so we just have to ride it out.
From the looks of the monthly candle, the control is still with the sellers as price did not close over the open price of previous down candle. However, there have been numerous attempts from the sellers to push it down which were all met with same resistance from buyers. I doubt there is any selling power left until a critical news release. In my personal analysis eurusd is now currently a no trading pair for myself. One of the reasons why I trade multiple pairs as I would have to sit it out for a prolonged periods of time.
Having said that, there is a good chance that the up movement will continue on which means everyone including myself that are participating in this exercise to sit it out since we are only taking one direction for this exercise. We need to patiently wait until clear reasons (as per our price action interpretation) to change our monthly hindsight to UP. Also another reason why I trade both directions since one direction could have me sit out for a prolonged periods of time again.
Hope you can see the benefits of trading multiple pairs and both directions.
I have been standing on the sideline watching the emotions unfold amongst the traders who have been private messaging me and on the thread. I urge you to stay strong and be a warrior.
Sincerely,
Graeme
P.S I will start answering all the private messages this afternoon.
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Jan 15, 2011 11:44pm
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crede quod habes, et habes
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TradeStar
Dear Graeme,
May I ask a dumb question:
What do we mean my constant frequency and spaced out?
Does constant frequency mean every four hour? Or this frequency refers to something else altogether?
BTW, your above two posts are top class. You are one super communicator!!
Grateful as always for your unselfish contribution.
Regards,
TradeStar
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Apologies to address you on the same post but thank you, Quitepips for the warm compliments. I encourage you on and please feel free to ask any questions.
Tradestar - It is a great question. Constant frequency is basically a set of action that you perform on a constant 'manner' over a given period of time.
In other words, no one needs to watch one pair fluctuate any more than necessary. The only times to watch is when there is a stall and you would start probing towards the intended direction. The rest is ignored. For my examples I have used 4hr charts and this is what I use mainly for the purpose of probing. I look for stalls of more than 2 candles that are preferably less than 50 pip range. Why? Because it will breakout sooner or later from that tight wedge, IT IS INEVITABLE. If a candle represents 4hrs of time then a preferred stall in my vision is minimum 8 hours. That is enough time for me to catch a glimpse of it when it does happen. And once I know that some pair is going through a stall I will watch and follow the flow of its breakout. Simple, logical, and common sense. To do this you will need to use price alert to your cell phone. Please use VPS server. These days I find mobile4x sms alerts useless as there are 2 or 3 hour lags. Alerts from your VPS server is instantaneous with less than 5 seconds of lag.
The reason I have mentioned the above is that there are traders spending countless hours infront of the computer screen when in trading increased productivity does not increase profitability.
I encourage everyone to learn not to stare at the charts and even a glimpse every 8 hours is suffice. If you missed a good move while you were away, always remember that what you thought you have missed is only a tiny tiny tiny tiny speck compared to the greater picture of the market. In other words, there will be always more.
Sincerely,
Graeme
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