Quote:
Originally Posted by VEEFX
For those curious to know how I am doing with my basket of crosses, things are looking really good. I began replicating my real trades in a demo account to check out the 'Trade Explorer' features here at FF. I am opening my account to public until sunday night for those who want to look or asked for my trading performance. I took those trades with no SL and some are moved to BE after 100+ pips in profit. Please PM to avoid clutter on this thread. Here's the link... http://www.forexfactory.com/veefx
Attachment 737599
|
Good afternoon, VEEFX
Thank you for the summary of your trading status.
Impressive.
Just a quick analysis of the pic of your summary indicate that (no disrespect but just a analysis for the rest of the readers);
My analysis could be wrong as I can only interpret from the pic posted above.
But this the type of analysis every trader should be performing on a weekly basis of their progress.
I assume this account is approximately few weeks old. I assume 4 weeks just for the calculation purposes.
100+ trades in the last few weeks. Good
Avg. number of trades taken per week. 25+
Gross profit in pip. +1506
Realized loss so far in pip. -924
Current net profit in pip. +582
Current floating profit in pip. +908
Maximum drawdown 4%
(assuming this account is 4 weeks old)
Realized loss based per week in pip. -231
Realized profit based per week in pip. +426
Profit to loss factor, almost 2:1. Excellent but you can do much better (soon)
*Using above statistics, I can project your future results (under the assumption that current progress is somewhat median)
Estimated for the next 52 weeks.
Expected median-maxi realized loss for 52 weeks in pips. -3003
Expected median-maxi realized profit for 52 weeks in pips. +5538
Profit to loss factor, 1:1.5 (this is absolute median as we are not even considering the potential floating profit for the whole year)
In regards to your current floating profit of 908 pips based on the assumption that this is a 4 week old account.
You do not work out expected floating pips for the year by multiplying it by 13. Instead floating profit is considered as a mode of acceleration here. If the potential is there to add 200 pip per week as a floating profit on the average throughout the whole year (from the looks of the last 4 weeks and assuming this is the median progress once again). I would take this into consideration by considering a worst case scenario of only 10% of this amount as an realized profit, hence adding 20 pips of realized profit into the overall calculation. Creating the absolute worst case scenario.
All in all everything points in the right direction. Now this will be the most important paragraph of this whole post. Time will tell if the past 4 weeks of your endeavor was the median progress (average progress) or not.. However, time will also tell if the above result was one of the better results that happen/s/ed from now for the next year in which the above figures/expectancy will dramatically decrease. Ofcourse I only hope that the last 4 weeks was rather a poor progress compared to the upcoming one year of events in which the above figures will be much smaller than your true realized profit in the one year time. At the moment (just from 4 weeks), one can forecast 200-220 pips per week but I think the true median could be anywhere between 50-200 pips ONLY if the current method you are adhering to is 'consistent' for the length of experiment.
VEEFX, you will find the final answer when you question yourself how to ensure 'consistency.'
Sincerely,
Graeme
EDIT: Analyzing your progress on a regular basis will show you the ins and outs of your method. The trade summary that shows profit or loss is nothing compared to the amount of insight you gain from taking your trade performance apart and looking through every nook and cranny. How will you build a car if you don't know the inner mechanics... Anyone can drive. But driving alone does not build a car.