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My path to financial freedom
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Apr 1, 2010 5:20pm
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My path to financial freedom
I couldn't think of what to call my journal so I decided to just call it the reason behind why I trade...well not the only reason, but the ultimate reason - to make money, to be financially independant and to be my own boss.
This journal will detail all my trades taken whterh intraday or long term, setups I am considering andsome slef critiscism of trades I take or miss. The latter is the reason behind this journal - somewhere where I can keep a log (pictorialy) of my trades and thoughts so I (and others if they so wish) can look back and review / analyse.
I've learnt my trading from mainly the Jacko and J16 threads and the people that make up those threads together with a few smaller threads some of which I've only just read. I would describe my trading as a mixture of the following:
1. location - looking for a confluence of S/R, TL's, roundnumbers, Fibs, divergence
2. Price action - mostly at a heavy confluenced area as mentioned above.
3. Trend trading
4. Gap trading (virtually only on Sunday open)
5. Fundamental / news trading - impulsive quck moves based on unexpected news (economic) releases.
Right can't think of anything else I need to say, so I'll share setups I took today and other potential trades I'm looking at...
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Apr 1, 2010 5:32pm
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I took this continuation BEOB today...counter trend but off a PPZ area.
I risked 3% on this trade and split it 1.5% entered on break and the other 1.5% entered on a pullback to the PPZ which was also between 50 and 61 fibs (off the bar). Stops both just above the PPZ - if price pushed above then it it is highly likely that it will continue up and above the BEOB.
Exited the trade when it hit the first trouble area (FTA) - counter trend and it might hit the TL but I wouldnt want a setup like this to turn from profit into a loss.
Entry1 - 5.4935 SL @ 5.5395
Entry2 - 5.5295 SL @ 5.5395
Target hit on both trades @ 5.4830
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Apr 1, 2010 5:48pm
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The only other trade I took today was on EUr / GBP. First chart so the area Iw as looking at - a heavy PPZ area with fib confluence (a PPZ in between or on a 50/61 fib is one of the things I look for - got this from Rac and others @ J16).
Was watching how price reacted at this area and a BUOB formed on the 30min timeframe with divergence. Took a break of the bar with SL below and exited @ the 50% fib which was an obvious previous support area.
In retrospect I could have taken half profit and let the other half run (moving stop to BE) and then moving SL to just under the resistance turned support area...something I need to work on.
Entry 0.8862 SL @ 0.8838 Exit @ 0.8874 (risk 3%)
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Apr 5, 2010 2:37pm
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The only other trade I took last week was on the weekly time frame on SGD / JPY.
BUOB over PPZ and BRN, moved to BE @ FTA and took half profit @ second target area marked and moved SL to just under the FTA.
Normally, when I see a setup like this I will scroll down the lower time frames and wait for some PA to confirm the move and thus can get in with less risk and more potential reward...but this is not a pair I look at intraday (I have a hard enough time focusing on the pairs I do without adding another one to the mix!) so happy to take the weekly setup.
Entry @ 66.25, took half profit @ 67.65 - other half SL moved to 66.60 (3% risk)
Initial Sl was @ 65.20 - just below the PPZ area rather than bottom of the BUOB - if the PPZ is broken there is a high chance price will head further south.
Total account gain so far (closed positions) - 11.13%
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 5, 2010 2:48pm
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Apr 5, 2010 2:55pm
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Been watching this triangle for a while waiting for a breakout...finally broke out today and I had a pending short order 10 pips below the TL (also had a pending long order 10pips above the upper TL) as an aggresive breakout trade.
I took profit @ the 61% fib which IMO was the first trouble area. Also Oil is @ resistance so didnt expect this breakout to follow through and will be looking to re-enter on a retracement to test the former TL support as TL resistance - PA as a confirmation would be ideal too.
Entry 0.9243, SL@ 0.9273, exit @ 0.9225 (2% risked).
(Account gain 12.46%)
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Apr 5, 2010 3:07pm
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This was another pair I had been watching for a breakout - missed the initial move but got in nicely on a retrace back to the area marked...scrolled down the timeframes looking for PA and found a BUOB on the 15min timeframe. Took all profit @ the RN...I was struggling to decide whether to exit or keep position open and move SL to BE...I might regret taking profit as there is some space for price to run up to 1.0650
Entry 1.0552, SL @ 1.0532 Risk 2% Exit @ 1.0600.
(Total Account Gain (TAG) - 17.86%
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Apr 6, 2010 5:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
This was another pair I had been watching for a breakout - missed the initial move but got in nicely on a retrace back to the area marked...scrolled down the timeframes looking for PA and found a BUOB on the 15min timeframe. Took all profit @ the RN...I was struggling to decide whether to exit or keep position open and move SL to BE...I might regret taking profit as there is some space for price to run up to 1.0650
Entry 1.0552, SL @ 1.0532 Risk 2% Exit @ 1.0600.
(Total Account Gain (TAG) - 17.86%
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Yep...I sure do regret it now  |
Apr 6, 2010 11:43am
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Been focusing heavily on JPY pairs and EU/GU today as the trend is starting to change (or a deeper pullback) ... will explain more later. Not feeling well so haven't been looking at anything apart from checking on pair mentioned above.
The only other trade I took today was another short on AUD/CAD on a retrace to previous support area (had a pending order set yesterday) - a first retest offers a high chance of a bounce from my experience. Wasn't looking to hold this trade as I think CAD will weaken shortly as Oil is coming up against a strong resistance area, thus exited at first obvious PPZ.
Entry 0.9250, SL @ 0.9265 Exit @ 0.9230, 3% @ risk
(TAG + 22.56%)
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Apr 7, 2010 10:16am
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Took a Gold trade...breakout and pullback from TL...target is a PPZ area...price took off nicely and just closed @ 1143.40 (entry 1136.10, SL @ 1132.30 - 3% risked)
(TAG: 34.22%)
In a fair few others...will post over the course of next few hours when get time...slightly disappointed we didnt have a stronger follow through down this morning on GJ, EJ, UJ, EU, GU  |
Apr 7, 2010 10:40am
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EUR / GBP - Pin bar off previous support turned resistance
Short @ 0.8784, SL @ 0.8815, 2% @ risk
EUR / SGD - getting into the trend...break of previous support...bit wary as all time low is just below (look @ monthly chart), but worth a little risk.
Short @ 1.8645
Short @ 1.8633
SL @ 1.8720, 0.5% @ risk on both i.e. total 1%
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 7, 2010 12:46pm
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Apr 7, 2010 10:44am
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All trades are based on my trend trading stlye of buying / selling on breaks of peaks / valleys (S/R) on 4H / 1H.
Been waiting patitenly for the USD and JPY to strengthen and for these crosses to weaken...either a resumption in bigger trend in some cases or just pullbacks...I dont know but I have initial targets marked on charts to watch.
EU - Short @ 1.3350, SL @ 1.3412 - 1% @ risk
EJ - Short @ 124.88, SL @ 126.18 - 1% @ risk
GJ - Short @ 142.64, SL @ 143.70 - 1% @ risk
GJ - Short @ 142.02, SL @ 143.70 - 1% @ risk
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 7, 2010 12:52pm
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Apr 7, 2010 10:52am
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C/J - break of support on 4HR - tend change - new LL / LH etc.
U/C - weekly support held, divergence, HH / HL break of PPZ
Gold - speculative on the basis breakout is 'fake'
C/J - short @ 93.43, SL @ 94.32, 0.5% @ risk
U/C - long @ 1.0023 SL @ 0.9980, 2% @ risk
Gold short @ 1145.25 SL @ 1150, 0.5% @ risk
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 7, 2010 2:16pm
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Apr 7, 2010 2:10pm
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1. GBP / CHF is a breakout of the resistance with the trend.
2. Oil - pin bar and pullback to resistance turned support
3. U/J - break of support / valley - a change of trend or a deepr pullback - looking to ride
4. A/J - looking weak , divergence, near TL resistance, JPY looking strong...but strong gold and interest rate is a niggle so only risking small amount.
GBP / CHF - long @ 1.6338, SL @ 1.6295 - 2% @ risk
Oil - long @ 86.68 Sl @ 85.72, 1% @ risk
Oil - long @ 85.98 SL @ 85.72, 1% @ risk
U/J - short @ 93.57 SL @ 94.28, 2% @ risk
A/J - short @ 86.76 Sl @ 87.40, 1% @ risk
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Apr 7, 2010 2:19pm
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Gold - SL hit...bit of a stupid trade really, but this was reflected in amount @ risk - 0.5%
TAG now stands at 33.55%
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Apr 7, 2010 3:27pm
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Oil retraced and broke the TL so both trades out for a loss as SL hit...and gold is now retracing...lol.
TAG now stands @ 30.88%
All other positions looking good...especially JPY pairs. Missed adding another entry long on U/C but have alerts set for the other JPY pairs in order to add more shorts at the next break of support / valley if/when this occurs.
DJI has broken the steep TL on daily too...if this holds then the JPY pairs should continue to weaken.
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Apr 7, 2010 3:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Do you keep any stats on your previous gap trading?
I've always been a big believer in Sunday gap trades but have lacked at keeping stats over the last couple of years. Curious if you had any...
Nice journal, cheers.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Do you keep any stats on your previous gap trading?
I've always been a big believer in Sunday gap trades but have lacked at keeping stats over the last couple of years. Curious if you had any...
Nice journal, cheers.
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No I don't...Gap trading represents the lowest frequency of my trading and I haven't traded them for a while as I suffered some decent size loses as I got into the mentality that gaps virtually always close witihn say 70ish pips for USD pairs and thus got careless and threw too much money at it. I have seen a good analysis (haven't checked the analysis myself for accuracy) on a different forum...and have attached it here - I did not produce this so cannot vouch for it's accuracy.
Comments that go with the spreadsheet:
Heat lists the % of the size of the gap that the trade went against you before it filled. For example, if it was a 30 pip gap, and the heat is 100%, then you would've seen the trade go 30 pips against you, before it filled.
Notice that the most heat that we took on a trade was 341%, precisely why our stops are placed at 350%, to keep you in the trade.
I believe only the best setup was taken every week and only decent size gaps , thus if the gaps were too small none were taken. Obviously this is only up to 2008 but should provide you with some initial data (2 years worth) to start doing some analysis and add too. |
Apr 8, 2010 2:38am
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E/G hit my target and I've taken a reverse trade long.
JPY shorts going well, looking to add further positions...
U/C - added further positions on break above daily PPZ - a BUOB with divergence on daily too.
Missed this breakout and pullback on GBP/ZAR - just something I noticed when going through daily charts.
Gone long Gold too this morning.
E/G - closed @ 0.8759 - reversed and went long @ 0.8758, SL @ 0.8740 - 1% @ risk.
TAG now 33.0%
Notice the Dollar Index has finally convincgly broken above fib confluence...good for EU shorts...lookignat other USD crosses for possbile shorts
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Apr 8, 2010 2:53am
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As per previous post added to U/C on break above daily PPZ.
- Long @ 1.0070, SL @ 1.0025
Took a speculative position long on gold.
- Long @ 1146.43, SL @ 1143.50 - 1% @ risk
Added to EJ short on break of 124.20 PPZ
- Short @ 124.17, SL@ 124.60 - 1% @ risk
Added top CJ short on break of previous support / valley @ circa 92.50
- Short @ 92.49, SL @ 93.43 - 1% @ risk
Missed adding EU short @ 1.3329 break of support - dont see to much room to run on this as USd/CHf approaching weekly TL and EU approaching double bottom...it might break but I expect a rebound uless interest rate decisions cause a shock.
Watching AUD/CAD for a break of daily Trangle.
About to add to UJ short if it can break 4H consolidation.
It really bugs me thaqt pending orders have to be so far from the price..I could just set my orders for all of the above and walk away but instead I have to set audible alerts and watch my charts like a hawk and hope [price doesnt move too fast so I dont get filled...really annoys me Oanda is perfect like that but not easy to display your orders on a chart.
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Apr 8, 2010 3:59am
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Added positions on U/J and A/J
U/J - Short @ 93.12, SL @ 93.45 , 1% @ risk
A/J - Short @ 85.99, SL @ 87.40, 1% @ risk
Exited all G/J shorts and E/U short...G/J @ PPZ and E/U near double bottom and U/CHF is @ TL resistance...both might be premature but if they break I'll get in again...plus interest rate day so dont want to be in a lot of GBP & EU positions at this time.
E/U closed @ 1.3305, G/J both closed @ 141.27
TAG now at 36.31%
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Apr 8, 2010 4:15am
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Added another position on EUR/SGD on break of 4HR support which was also weekly PPZ.
1.8589, SL @ 1.8640 - 1% @ risk
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Apr 8, 2010 4:38am
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Closed EJ shorts...reached 61 fib and interest rate news means I'm not comfortbale throwing away decent profit...not much room until it reaches a TL so I'll reasses later.
EG and Gold came within a few pips of being stopped out...expecting gold to retrace a bit now.
Dow futures are looking weak and Dow looks like it will open a good 40-50 points lower...so will be looking to sell into retraces this afternoon. Wont be entering any more trades until US open now
EJ - both trades closed @ 123.80
TAG now @ 38.62%
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Apr 8, 2010 8:53am
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EG trade hit SL...still think it will bounce but I had a tight SL.
EG closed @ 0.8740
Added another position to GBP / CHF @ 1.6380, SL @ 1.6310 - 1% @ risk
A/J has stalled was hoping for a push down to the TL for a close and reverse...might exit if goes up much higher.
Annoyed I missed the GBP/ZAR breakout trade as that would have been a high %R.
Added another UJ short on retracement up to previous entry and now resistance.
U/J - short @ 93.09, SL @ 93.30 (all positions have SL here now) - 0.5% @ risk - now swinging a 3.5% line on this short and looking to add another 2% @ 92.78 - overal target is 92.20.
CAD/CHF - someone else notice this and I took a look - we are at a weekly PPZ and between 50/61 fibs...took a short.
Short @ 1.0687, SL @ 1.0740, 1% @ risk
EUR / SGD looks to be forming a 4HR pin bar oif so I'll exit and wait for a retrace back up to get back in the trend...doubt I'll take the counter trend pin.
TAG now @ 37.23%
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Apr 8, 2010 9:17am
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Exited A/J - might be a bit premature as it might yet test the TL but it reversed off a PPZ....might regret this but hey ho.
Exited both shorts @ 86.17 - small loss on one and a gain on the other.
Exited Gold long @ 1151.40 - I dont think there is much more upside to this left fib and PPZ approaching and I'd rather concentrate on other FX pairs. Again might be thinking too much but I got in the trend late so dont want to be adding positions near a top!
TAG now @ 40.65%
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Apr 8, 2010 9:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
LoL me too.
So what lesson did you learned from this trade?
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Not to take stupid trades 
Nah...should have been more patient and waited for either some price action at the PPZ to warrant a short or for the 4HR to close to see if we closed above / below the PPZ...either that or just continue playing the trend up. |
Apr 8, 2010 9:31am
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Added another position short on CAD/CHF - break of the consolidation.
1.0656 - 1% - SL @ 1.0699
Added another position on U/C - break fo consolidation - 1.0098 - SL @ 1.0060 - 1% @ risk
Watching this setup on AUD/CAD for a touch trade short.
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Apr 8, 2010 9:57am
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EUR / SGD - pin bar was formed and it has broken but decided to keep my positions as long as the PPZ holds then I'mmstaying in if it doesnt I'll exit all trades for a loss.
Was very close to doing some EU and UCHf trades earlier speculative counter trend as @ PPz and near double bottom on EU and TL resistance on UCHF but decided against it...should have gone iwht my instincts.
EG is going exactly where I wanted it to go...SL was too tight on this one.
UC and GCHF have started to retrace slightly annoying - GCHF might get stopped out soon. CJ. CCHF and UJ going fine and will not be entering any more trades (set some pending orders) as off to enjoy the sunsine now  |
Apr 8, 2010 12:19pm
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CAD has strengthed some what this afternoon...have no idea why, oil hasn't strengthened and no nes to speak off...a tad annoying as it's mucked up my CAD related trades 
USD / CAD all 3 trades exited @ 1.0060 - break of TL and PPZ, 1 winner and 2 losing trades here, very frustrating.
CAD / CHF - both trades exited @ 1.0699 for a loss.
CAD / JPY - left both trades in as price will hit TL soon and hopefully retrace back down.
U/J - cut all my trades @ 93.12 as TL was being broken 1 win, 1 BE and 1 small loss
TAG now@ 39.62%
Very frustrating really...expected CAD and UJ to go further.
TAG now @ 41.28% - so despite a few losses still increased account as the frist positions were all in decent profit.
G/CHF , EUR/SGD still open.
I missed a stop and reverse opportunity on EU and EJ earlier but jsut took EJ long, AJ long off the 4HR pin that formed @ PPZ and UJ long - all small positions - will update later. |
Apr 8, 2010 3:18pm
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A/J long @ 86.31 SL @ 85.61 1%
E/J long 124.41 SL @ 124 1%
UJ long 93.26 SL @ 93.02 1%
Have got tight SL's and modest TP set on the above trades
The above and my EUR/SGD, GBP/CHF and CJ are all my active trades from the start of this journal.
Whilst scouring my intraday charts noticed that some setups might be developing on the daily timeframe...1hr 45min until my charts close so I'll be back analysing then.
Overall, I missed EU, UCHF and EJ reversal long trades today, EG SL was to tight and I missed GBP/ZAR breakout - although I looked @ it again when it approached the TL again and the spread was just stupidly large so wouldnt have taken it...MT4 does some have some poor spreads on exotics compared to Oanda from what I've seen. I trade with Oanda whenever I need to put pending order quite close to the current price as with Mt$ you cannot do this...have I mentioned before that this really really bugs me lol.
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Apr 9, 2010 1:51am
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Closed EJ and UJ longs as they have hit PPZ areas...Letting AJ run up to highs if it gets there SL moved to BE.
Daily pins on EJ. AJ. GJ. UJ. CHF/J, USD,CHF. AU. GU !! But there is a lot of trouble immediately ahead Gj, EJ, Uj has hit that FTA and started to retrace so I decided to take profit...taken the CHF/J pin and USD CHF pin and looking at GU - there is arguments for both short and long on this pair.
Still have EUR/SGD open it hit PPZ and starting to revers again- could have banked profit first time aroud and re-entered..G/CHf TP is set, just waiting for it to hit it or hit my SL which I've moved up.
CJ has a daily pin...but I'm sticking with my shorts it';s hit the TL and has stalled...might have to take a loss on this one.
I could easily reverse my longs on EJ UJ etc...for a few pips but it's friday and I'm not keen on trading that much today got other things to focus on.
Closed EJ @ 124.84, UJ @ 93.56
CHF/JPY long @ 87.08 SL @ 86.10 TP 87.50 - 2%
USD/CHF short 1.0739 SL @ 1.0790 TP 1.0650 - 2%
Attached charts of current positions...plus looking @ gold - breakout opportunity.
TAG now @ 44.41%
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Apr 9, 2010 3:56am
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CHF/JPY hit TP @ 87.50
Taken Gold long @ 1153.85, SL @ 1150.50, TP @ 1160.50 (PPz and 61 fib around this area...if it stalls at 61 fib I'll close)
Also taken 2 GU longs...daily setup points to longs together with FTSe opening positive with dow clawing back all initial losses yesterday...all points to positive risk appetite this morning together with GU pin bars . So took first short on this basis and second on break of TL.
GU long @ 1.5282 SL @ 1.5265 - 2%
long @ 1.5321 SL @ 1.5295 - 1%
TAG now @ 45.65%
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Apr 9, 2010 5:12am
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Closed GU trades @ 1.5374 @ a PPZ - %R on these trades were really good 
AJ TP hit @ 87.25
C/J - the second short SL got hit @ 93.43
G/CHF - closed both trades @ 1.6450 - price is @ a strong PPZ 
Considering reversing to short on G/xxx and A/J
TAG now stands @ 75.81% |
Apr 9, 2010 7:56am
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Closed USD / CHF short @ 1.0707
Opened the following trades:
Short A/J @ 87.21 SL @ 87.50 - 2% - near TL high,
G/CHF @ 1.6435 SL @1.6610 -1% - @ PPZ and fib
G/CHF @ 1.6450 SL @1.6610 - 1% following SNB interention added a position @ a better price.
Looking to short AU @ TL high and long EG @ PPZ 0.87 and considering G/U short as price is stalling @ a PPZ...just waiting for some price action as confirmation.
TAG now @ 78.41%
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Apr 9, 2010 8:58am
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Closed Gold @ 1156.00 - started to retrace at fib.
Closed C/J @ 93.00 - CAD poor employment data gave a quick move, these are often followed by profit taking and a move back up.
Went short G/U @ 1.5355 SL @ 1.5400 - 2%
TAG now @ 81.13%
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Apr 9, 2010 9:04am
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AJ hit target @ 87.00
TAG now @ 83.74% |
Apr 9, 2010 10:34am
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EUr / SGD shorts all stopped out now - total 2% lost on these 3 trades...I was so close to cutting them earlier as the PPZ had not stood firm...hmmm never mind.
Closed both GBP/CHF shorts @ 1.6410
TAG now @ 81.87%
Tempted by an EU short.
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Apr 9, 2010 10:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EUr / SGD shorts all stopped out now - total 2% lost on these 3 trades...I was so close to cutting them earlier as the PPZ had not stood firm...hmmm never mind.
Closed both GBP/CHF shorts @ 1.6410
TAG now @ 81.87%
Tempted by an EU short.
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If EU can get back up to 475 area again...
Tempted by gold long too again...
For some reason I didnt pull the trigger on a UJ short at fib, ppz and TL confluence earler...account could have definelty been nearer 100% gain if I'd not cut some winners short and not missed some opportunities
A bit volatile this afternoon...friday and all, and Dow near 11000 could be fireworks if it gets there if it rebounds hard JPy will strengthen if it sails through USd and JPY crosses will rise hard...i'll probably just keep out and watch from the sidelines this afternoon. |
Apr 9, 2010 10:57am
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Bought gold...self explanatory as to why.
Pending orders short on EU, might add a position on GU if we get higher and maybe AU...not that keen on JPY pairs at the momentbut short EJ 126.08 looks the most appealing to me...if dow is near 11k at the same time then I might load up.
Gold long @ 1153.40 SL @ 1151.50 TP again @ 1160.50 - 3% @ risk
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Apr 9, 2010 11:03am
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Short AU @ 0.9316. SL @ 0.9405 - 2%
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Apr 9, 2010 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Bought gold...self explanatory as to why.
Pending orders short on EU, might add a position on GU if we get higher and maybe AU...not that keen on JPY pairs at the momentbut short EJ 126.08 looks the most appealing to me...if dow is near 11k at the same time then I might load up.
Gold long @ 1153.40 SL @ 1151.50 TP again @ 1160.50 - 3% @ risk
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Now they are the sort of trades I like Gold shot up...took off the TP and took profit manually @ 1163.40 a great %R for 30mins work lol!
TAG is now @ 110.57% - doubled my account in 7 trading days
I thinks we will see reversals in EU, GU, AU now..AU is far too high and near RBA intervention area, EU @ technical resistance and GU is stalling @ a PPZ area...dow is 25 pips of 11k and JPY pairs are not really moving.
I've take GU,EU and AU shorts...will post later ...wanna watch price aciton as if I've entered too soon I'll cut them quickly. |
Apr 9, 2010 12:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Short AU @ 0.9316. SL @ 0.9405 - 2%
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Added another position @ 0.9335 same SL 1%
Added another GU 1.5374 1% saem SL as original
EU short 1.3471 - 2% SL 1.3525
Dollar Index is bouncing from near a PPZ...there might be another leg down to fuly test it i.e. further leg up in xxx/USD but I dont wanna miss the boat if it doesnt. |
Apr 9, 2010 4:56pm
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An example of why I need to be more patient with my trades...USD/CHF - price eventually went to the obvious target area (it did come bac and put the initial position in drawdown first)..I closed @ 1.0707 for a 32 pip gain and 0.54R gain. If I'd left it to reach TP @ 1.0655 that would have been a 84 pip gain and 1.65R gain...it's trades like this where I need to stick to my plan more and just set my SL and TP and not look at the chart again...of course there are times when I want to get to BE at a certain point, but that's what MT4 audible alerts are for or even a trade manager...will look into trade manager EA's over the weekend.
My two main aims for the coming weeks is to be more patient with my trasdes and stick to my plan and to catch a whole trend...on the 4H or 1HR from start to finish adding postions on the way.
I'll go over my daily, weekly charts over the weekend and jot down my thoughts over the weekend...it's a key point for EU and GU in particular...break highs could signal a change in the trend (Higher Highs would have formed and strong PPZ broken) a move lower and we will be range trading on the higher time frames again (EU has made a HL this week on the daily) ... I prefer the ranging option (well I'm short xxx/USD!) but I'll post some charts over the weekend |
Apr 10, 2010 8:38am
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I thought I'd share my thoughts on AU, GU and EU as I've taken shorts on all of these pairs on Friday.
1. EUR / USD
- We are in a deep down trend on the daily/weekly time frame
- Price has risen to a confluence of the TL, fibs, BRN and hidden confluence (on 4HR).
For these reasons I went short...well worht a speculative short IMO. However I do have a niggling thought that we could be in for a deeper reversal...price has made a higher low last week and a pin bar on weekly points to more bullish price action. But rather than trade what I think might happen I'm trading what my charts currently show me.
If price did break the TL and closed above the high marked in the chart then this would mean we have formed a higher high and higher low and thus I'd be switching quickly to a long entry with a target of 1.3820.
One other thing to note is the chart of the Dollar Index...which again points to a continued move down the the xxx/USD if we stay within the channel. a sustained break of this would enforce the thoughts that we are in for deeper retracements in xxx/USD
Worth bearing in mind a chart of USD/CHF when trading EU as they are correlated...as you can see we have a weekly pin bar and price is winding up...although on the 4H we are a support area.
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Apr 10, 2010 8:43am
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2. GBP/USD
- Price has been trending down in higher timeframes , although we are ina sideways consolidation between 1.4800 - 1.5385 area since February.
- price is currently at the top of the range with fib confluence and divergence on 4H.
- If price breaks above this range then we have a breakout and I'll be long with a target of 1.5560 PPZ area.
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Apr 10, 2010 8:46am
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3. AUD/USD
- Price has been in an uptrend but ranging from August last year with a series of lower lows forming but with 7 touches of the area where price now sits (on weekly chart).
- There is a lots of potential resistance at both where we are now and above as can be seen on a weekly chart.
- Daily shows resistance with divergence.
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Apr 10, 2010 8:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi Lovejoy,
Nice and useful Journal. Please keep it up.
Cheers
Ogeid
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I certainly aim to keep it going...it helps me collect my thoughts and easier to be able to look back over trades. Also welcome any other memebers comments on my trades etc. |
Apr 10, 2010 8:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garrye
nice one lovejoy wish u well
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Thanks |
Apr 10, 2010 2:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi Lovejoy,
I would like to post the following chart to know your opinion. I hope I am not deviating from the main purpose of your journal. If I am feel free to kill me!
EUR/GBP
- Weekly on a consolidation ascending triangle with support around 0.875 area.
- Confluence with 350 EMA
- Nice daily PB with space around it
- Pull back to TL
What do you think?
Cheers
Ogeid Attachment 455331 |
How dare you post a chart in my thread...thou shall die!  ...post away, I love sharing opinions.
This is my current chart of EG. I dont generally use MA/EMA's but I would definitely include a 350EMA as confluence.
I'm presuming you mean Friday's daily bar which is technically a pin bar but the body is far too big compared to the tail to be classed as a good pin bar.
Our TL's differ in position too, yours is just above Friday's bar and mine just below.
I won't be trading this...I actually wanted to go long on Friday if price touched the PPZ @ 0.87000 but my order missed getting filled by 2pips.
I'm on the sidelines waiting for price to get to the next PPZ area - 0.8834 where I'll be watching how price reacts at this area (alternatively if we head south another touch of the lower PPZ area @ 0.87000 or the weekly TL.
I hope that helps...it's just my opinion and one of the things I've learned is that if you have a proven method that you know works (from backtesting and forward testing i.e. statistically) then don't let someone else talk you out of a trade.
Cheers
Mark
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Apr 11, 2010 9:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am really usurping your thread. LOL!
Thanks a lot for your reply. I admire your consistency in applying your method.
I also doubting the body of the PB. BTW going through my charts I noticed a similar situation in GBP/CHF (correlation) with a better shape of PB (IMO).
Thanks again
Ogeid
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That is definitely a better setup...but still could be better in terms of location - see my post here.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=60480
Not decided whether I will take this setup yet , I'm already exposed to GBP via GBP/USD shorts so I'll assess later. |
Apr 11, 2010 11:23am
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Looking through my charts and writing out my 'watchlist' for the week...a list of pairs with either immediate trades I want to take tonight / tomorrow or areas of interest where I'll set MT4 alerts for.
I'm not going to go through all of them as my list is long...but in addition to the EU,u/CHf, AU and GU that I've already discussed I'd like to sahre my views on the CAD in assocition with a chart of Oil.
Here is two charts of Oil...both weekly..first one zoomed out to show the PPZ area marked on my chart and the second one zoomed in to show the current weekly price action. As you can see price has reached the PPZ area and formed a pin bar (although not a great pin bar and not one I would trade outright) with divergence.
Now price might soar through this PPZ but we've already had a reaction at this level so buyers and sellers have noticed this area and the sellers are currently in control. If we get some more selling action and this pin bar breaks then it would be fair to assume the CAD would weaken during the course of next week.
Thus looking at the main two CAD pairs I follow (CAD/JPY and USD/CAD) we we can look for shorts and longs respectively.
For USD/CAD I'll be looking for long entries either @ the PPZ marked coming up or a retest of the recent low. also notice (easier to see on the line chart) how price broke the steep TL and made a new higher high followed by a higher low which is a strong indication of a potential trend change. If price rebounds of the PPZ just below current price and forms a new low then this will be a new higher low and I would expect price then to make a new higher high. Thus, I will be entering a 'speculative' long entry @ this PPZ unless price action on this pair and Oil shows something to convince me not to get in this trade. I use the term speculative as I am basing my trade on assumptions (based on a certain thought process) that the trade has changed without any price action to confirm this. Thus on the balance of probabilities taking into account my thought process there is a higher probability that we could see a bounce at the PPZ and this could be the start of a trend change. If this is proven to be the case (by the formation of a new higher high) then I can then add more positions with higher risk as I am then confident that we are in a new bullish move.
Looking @ CJ we can see the same pattern on the 4H chart i.e. a formation of a LH and LL and a break of the most recent steep TL - in fact the new LH was formed by a retest of the TL and is now resistance (also formed a BEOB). In order for the trend change to be confirmed we will need a break of the outer TL ato make a new LL - at this point I'd enter a short as the trend is confirmed...this would not be aspeculative short like the impending U/CAD trade as the trend change is confirmed.
Now I might of course be completely wrong and this could be just a small retracement to 'pick up' more buying power to push through the PPZ's on Oil and UC, CJ etc...but this is my thoughts and plan and obviously I get paid (by the market) to take risks, but if we manage our risks correctly we can still be wrong a good number of times and make decent returns.
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Apr 11, 2010 1:05pm
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I expect to see a positive Euro @ open...Greece bailout agreed @5% interest rates - below market standard of >7%
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...15Jz6UVU&pos=1
Have taken a very small long on EU on my Oanda platform (open 24/7).
Will wait for the market to settle following any reaction before deciding whether to cut my EU shorts...I would expect a bounce in EU and also a lower USD across the board due to increased risk appetite following this news...if the move looks sustained through Asia and European open I'll cut my GU,AU,EU shorts and be looking for longs. |
Apr 11, 2010 2:12pm
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Some other charts I have added to my watchlist for the forthcoming week...the areas I'm watching for a potential trading opportunity should be relatively straghtforward...
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Apr 11, 2010 2:47pm
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Defintely some movement in EU pre-market...no moves in any other pairs. Definitely prudent to cover my EU shorts and enter some longs
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Apr 11, 2010 4:10pm
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5 entries in EU only now...2% each entry...running a tight SL, but this basically covers my existing EU,AU and GU shorts from Friday that are open and untouchable until market open in 50mins.
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Apr 12, 2010 1:59am
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Okay update on trades . Obvioulsy all my thoughts on Eu,GU etc..was undone by the big gap up on Sunday open due to the greeece loan agreement news announced on Sunday.
I'm on the sidelines watching price now waiting for some clear signals on direction...if price starts heading down to close the gaps then I'll trail price down to these areas.
E/U - as per the above posts I entered some longs pre-marekt to cover my shorts. I ended up with 6 longs al with 30SL risking 2% @ 1.3505,515,558,586,618,650 and exited them all @ 1.3622
Closed both G/U trades and E/U trades @ market open @ 1.3667 and 1.5469
Still in AU trades as SL not hit.
Thus, my EU longs pre-market actually made up the losses on GU and EU and some profit on top.
Entered long on U/C @ 1.0030, 2% SL @ 1.0005
TAG: 120.13%
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Apr 12, 2010 2:50am
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Taken a touch trade - 1st time back to support on CAD/CHF with a tight SL.
- Short AUD/NZD on weekly pin bar (aggresive entry as PB not broke and SL above left eye) price @ a PPZ and divegence.
- Pending order on NZD/CAD - if it doesnt reach 1st target area then I'll go long on a retrace, if it reaches 1st target area first then I'll cancel order.
CAD / CHF - Long @ 1.0514, SL @ 1.0475 - 1%
AUD/NZD - Short @ 1.3007, SL @ 1.3130 - 2%
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Apr 12, 2010 7:02am
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Trades taken this morning...
1. Gold - still riding the trend...
Long @ 1167.93 and 1162.91..SL on both @ 1160.20 1% and 0.5% @ risk respectively.
2. G/U short @ 1.5409 SL @ 1.5465 1% @ risk and short @ 1.5450 with a 30 pip SL - 1% @ risk.
Closed the second trade @ 1.5442
Speculative gap closing trades.
3. A/J - short @ 86.74, SL @ 87.40 - 1% - speculating on the TL holding - got in later than I would like.
4. U/J short - confluence of ppz, fibs and Tl - short @ 93.54 SL @ 93.80
Closed CAD/CHF @ 1.0538 - didnt get the convincing bounce I was after.
TAG now @ 122.07
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Apr 12, 2010 9:00am
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Gold - both SL hit @ 1160.20.
Entered another A/J short @ break of 1HR valley, support area...probably entered a bit too soon really. short @ 86.51 Sl @ 87.00 1% risk.
U/C entered another long on break of resistance / peak @ 1.0088 SL @ 1.0050 -1% @ risk.
Closed UJ trade @ 93.51 - price hit 1st trouble area and rebounded...defintiely should have given this one much more space...annoyed with myself on this one, same for GU exited near close of gap @ 1.5397, should have left some open to see if we could break down further.
A/U - decided to close trades...price not moving that much and just felt we'd had quite a large move down for this pair and would be due a reversal soon....prbably exited too soon. closed both trades @ 0.9280.
TAG now @ 122.84
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Apr 12, 2010 10:47am
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My Second U/C trade got stopped out...really frustrating at times playing CAD as it can suddenly have some sharp moves without any warning.
Entered a short on UJ and EJ...charts attached. EJ is break of a support area / valley whereas UJ is a pin bar with trend...it's winding up a bit so hopefully the pin bar is giving us a heads up that we will break through that PPZ below.
UJ short @ 93.31, SL@ 93.65 - 1%
EJ short @ 126.82 SL @ 127.50 - 1%
TAG now @ +120.61%
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Apr 12, 2010 11:32am
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Another attempt @ gold long @ 1161.58, SL @ 1158.30 - 2% @ risk.
UJ - stop moved to BE, hit the PPZ area and started to retrace.
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Apr 12, 2010 12:32pm
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Short on Oil ...resistance area...short @ 85.24 SL @ 85.70 - 1% @ risk
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Apr 12, 2010 3:01pm
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Exited Gold @ 1163.33 earlier...price didn't have any momentum and I was just about to short Oil.
Exited Oil when it went near the TL support @ 84.40
TAG now @ +127.03%
Went short G/U falling TL and break of a support / valley, entered again on retrace thus short @ 1.5355 and 1.5380 1% on each with SL on both @ 1.5425.
Went long on UC when price hit the 4HR PPZ long @ 1.0018 - 1%
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Apr 13, 2010 2:17am
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Woke up to find my Yen shorts had all hit their targets
Both AJ trades closed @ 86.03
UJ closed @ 92.91
EJ closed @ 126.04
If I had been watching these trades I wouldn't have closed them I would have actually added a further UJ postion @ 92.80, EJ @ 125.93 and AJ I would have gone long @ 85.44....didnt expect any of these targets to bit during Asian session.
TAG now @ +137.14% |
Apr 13, 2010 3:08am
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Three new trades...
G/CHF -breakout and restes of TL...not far to potential reversal but will give it some room to try and break through.
Short @ 1.6255, SL@ 1.6288 - 2%
E/GBP...finally broken above the PPZ and recent bar highs, long @ 0.8853, SL@ 0.8822 1%
U/J - puillback to previous resistance...small postion short to see if this will hold - short @ 92.76, SL@ 93.00 - 1%
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Apr 13, 2010 3:29am
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Well it didn't take long for UJ test to prove me wrong...JPY decreasing across the board...should have known as EJ and AJ had broken back above PPZ and rebounced from TL respectively so should have epxected GJ and UJ to follow as xxx/JPY typically all move together.
Didnt get time to put SL on trade so closed @ 93.21
Went short on EUR/AUD @ 1.4699. SL @ 1.4720 -1% conflurnce on TL, with trend, fib and PPZ
TAG now @ 132.69%
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Apr 13, 2010 4:39am
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Stopped out on GCHf short...postivie balance deficit figures grrr.
Moved stop loss down on E/G to give it bit more room to 0.8000.
Another go at UJ short (could have taken EJ and GJ too) @ 93.27, SL@93.62 -1%
Missed gold and oil shorts annoyingly.
TAG now @ 128.04%
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Apr 13, 2010 5:37am
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Short C/J @ 92.69, SL @ 93.10 - 1%.
Oil weak and CJ rejection of TL.
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Apr 13, 2010 5:43am
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Break of EU support...looking for gap to close...short @ 1.5364, SL@ 1.3602 - 1%
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Apr 13, 2010 6:01am
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4Hr BEOB on EG..stopped long and went short.
I completely mis-read EG, missed a fib retracement combined with PPZ (PPZ is clear on daily)...this would have been a great area to go short.
Short @ 0.8815, SL @ 0.8863 - 2%
EG short closed @ 0.8818
TAG now @ +125.46%
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Apr 13, 2010 10:15am
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Closed UJ @ 92.94...it touched previous lows then retraced...quite a frustrating trading day thuis far...very choppy directionless trading, we've had out usual spike in USD/CAD lol (really losing patience with this pair...when I close current trades think I will delete this from my watchlist...you get so many spikes without any correlation to news or oil).
GU trades - I closed both based on break of faling TL @ 1.5400
TAG now @ 125.55%
Summary of open trades:
Short EUR / AUD @ 1.4699
Long USD/CAD @ 1.0030. 1.0088. 1.0018 - all SL @ 0.9990
Short AUD / NZD @ 1.3007
Short C/J @ 92.69 (with a pending short @ 92.10)
Short E/U @ 1.5364
Short E/G @ 0.8815 (with a pending short @ 0.8803)
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Apr 13, 2010 11:49am
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Cut one U/C trade @ 1.0058 (the trade that was long @ 1.0018) and went long oil, bounce of TL, 50% fib and PPZ...think it might still go lower so not looking to hold this for long.
TAG now @ +128.77%
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Apr 13, 2010 11:58am
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Was looking forward to taking this trade...but price didn't reach my pending order by a few pips...confluence of TL, 50/61 fibs, daily PPZ...
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Apr 13, 2010 2:32pm
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Just took profit on oil as it hit potential TL resistance...a nice end to the day . It's been a rubbish day to trade today so much chop.
Closed Oil @ 84.19
Also took profit on EUR / AUD @ 1.4665
TAG now @ 146.32%
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Apr 13, 2010 5:02pm
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Note to self ...look at daily charts before trading tomorrow...pins on all xxx/jpy of TL or support gold and oil rebounded off support levels...could be a heads up to dollar and JPY weakness tomorrow.
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Apr 14, 2010 1:54am
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Stopped out on EU and CJ shorts @ 1.3602 and 93.10.
TAG now @ 124.22%
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Apr 14, 2010 5:23am
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Went long on E/J
Price broke above the TL and both 1HR PPZ...so was looking for a pullback and entry long. Scrolled down the timeframes and the retest held so went long 2x1% positions @ 127.59 and 127.59...SL @ 127.30
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Apr 14, 2010 5:29am
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Went short C/J @ 93.59, SL @ 93.84 -2% @ risk...missed the touch trade off resistance but a pin bar formed to trading this instead.
Went long U/C @ 0.9980, SL@0.9970 2% @ risk. Price has gone down to previous low to form a double bottom which is also weekly PPz. A pin bar with divergence on 5min timeframe so took this, although it has hit the 1HRbar highs and retraced so looks like I missed the chance to take profit.
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Apr 14, 2010 5:33am
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Went long AU...price was @ a daily PPZ so scrolled down the time frames and taken a break out speculative trade. Long AU @ 0.9327. SL @ 0.9310, 1% @ risk.
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Apr 14, 2010 5:41am
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Long GU...breakout of triangle (and above bar highs) . Long @ 1.5439, SL@ 1.5410 - 1% @ risk.
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Apr 14, 2010 6:04am
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Watching my current trades very carefully...Gold needs to break 1160 for AU to continue up...AJ is approaching triple top too. Oil needs to pause and retrace for CAD to weaken...those CAD trades were counter trend so risky.
Looking to exit trades or move stop losses before US economic news release (Core CPI and retail sales) in 2.5 hours as price could move quite quickly...good figures and I would expect USD and JPY to go down due to increasing risk appetite (although we could see a spike up in USD first) and the opposite for bad figures.
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Apr 14, 2010 6:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
excellent discipline and risk management. great technique, awesome results. truly inspirational. thankyou for sharing 
the PPZ you mention is M4. i sold the same level risking 1% with a 20 pip stop in the wake of disappointing home loans today. We are on the opposite side of this trade. good luck |
Thanks, it helps me to share as I can analyse my trades after the fact...plus others can post their opinions which can only help me learn more.
What is M4, never heard of this before?
I'm not feeling good about the AU trades as gold is stalling @ PPZ and I expected a quick push up in EJ and AU but they are stalling...lack of buy orders maybe or maybe low volatility becasue people are waiting for US news.
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Apr 14, 2010 6:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
Hi, lovejoy80
the strategy works very well, I was doing backtesting to get a feel about it, one quick question, how do you avoid the range market as much as you can? what annoys me is the situation the range market gives too many false breaks. I think I will do some demo trading following your method. thank you for sharing your trades.
jeurre
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I dont need to avoid range markets...when price is ranging it is obviously quite easy to ride the peaks and valleys etc...I'm not actually very good at this...I need to hold trades longer and add in more positions that I do, I've never caught a trend from beginning to end and reversed yet...that is one of my goals.
Yesterday was a choppy sideways day...I focus a lot on the major PPZ areas i.e. from the daily and weekly time frames and then go down lower...when you have a major PPZ with fibs, TL and price action this is a really good trade and can indicate the start of a trend or a major reversal.
There are days like yesterday when I trade to play some breaks and trend trades and price just chopped around all over the place, if you use proper risk management i.e. I used 1% mostly yesterday as most of the pairs are still deciding whether to go up and down (not at major PPz's either)...there is a lack of direction in most cases as risk sentiment is not at extremes...Greece is still a concern as the Euro is generally despite the loan agreement and the bond sale. Risk sentiment is a major driver of markets at the moment and there has not been much economic data either so far this week and there was not much data or news yesterday. It was only a nice Oil trade that made my day yesterday.
Recognising when price is trending and ranging is all part of getting screen time and experience and knowing where the major areas are that price is heading to or will reverse at.
I think a lot of fundamental traders are waiting for corporate results season to get underway to guage how well corporates are doing in US, also have UK general election and continuting Greece, PIIGS saga. |
Apr 14, 2010 6:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Watching my current trades very carefully...Gold needs to break 1160 for AU to continue up...AJ is approaching triple top too. Oil needs to pause and retrace for CAD to weaken...those CAD trades were counter trend so risky.
Looking to exit trades or move stop losses before US economic news release (Core CPI and retail sales) in 2.5 hours as price could move quite quickly...good figures and I would expect USD and JPY to go down due to increasing risk appetite (although we could see a spike up in USD first) and the opposite for bad figures.
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lol...should have waited for gold to break 1160 before going long AU... |
Apr 14, 2010 6:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
the M4 pivot. Its the half way point between the R1 pivot (R for resistance) and the R2 pivot. If you still have no idea what I am talking about let me know - Im about to blow your mind |
I know about floor pivots i.e. pivot, S1, S2, R1 ,R2 etc...but actually dont know what they are in terms of how they are calculated...something to do with previous days high/low? Never heard of using the mid points of P-R1 etc...be glad to hear more about these... |
Apr 14, 2010 6:29am
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Well, those trades took off...in the wrong direction!
Exited manually GU and EJ @ 1.5421 and 127.41 leaving UC and CJ in play as well as AU - if 1158 support on gold can hold then AU should be ok...watching closely though. Wasnt really happy with EJ and GU they should have taken off after breaking resistance but didnt so happy to cut these.
Got a pending order sell on EUR/CAD @ 1.3594...otherwsie waiting till we get near double/ triple tops on xxx/JPY ...if this is combined with poor USD data (and dow is at weekly PPZ and formed bearish 1H pin bar with divergence in last hour last night) we could see as big fall in JPY pairs
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Apr 14, 2010 6:44am
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Sold Eur / AUd and EUr / CAD on break of support...notice if I still had my EUr / AUd short in play from yesterday this would be an additional position...but I got inpatient and took profit...must get better at this.
E/A short @ 1.4605, SL@ 1.4722 - 2%
E/C short @ 1.3596, SL@ 1.3660 - 2%
(thanks Nasir for posting these potential trades...I would have missed them!)
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 14, 2010 6:59am
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Apr 14, 2010 6:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
its the same thing applied to FX - Ill get some resource material or website for you. in the meantime check this chart out from yesterdays trading. The pivot points are marked. It displays the effectiveness of these levels. remember these levels were in place before price went there
You can easily calculate the levels from previous OHLC data but nobody does that as there are indicators that do it all for you as you can see on my chart. There are weekly and monthly pivots and these are even more powerful. You use them exactly the same way you do...
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Thanks...so S1 is daily support 1 and thus M2 is halfway between daily pivot and S1 and M1 halfway between S1 and S2?
Do these work on some pairs more than others...is the 5min time frame the optimum one? |
Apr 14, 2010 7:18am
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missed this...break of TL , retest and she goes...
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Apr 14, 2010 8:26am
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All three UC trades closed @ 0.9970 - counter trend trading can hurt!
CJ hit stop loss @ 93.59 - wanted to get out @ BE as it didnt take off but SL got hit first.
Therefore still in E/A, E/C, A/U, A/N, E/G
TAG (from oil trade last night until now) @ + 121.76% ...a tough week this week for sure.
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Apr 14, 2010 8:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
thats correct. After a previous down day ie closing lower than the open, the predicted high and strong resistence is M3 and the predicted low and strong support is M1 so the predicted trading range of the day is M1-M3. After a previous up day the range is from M2-M4 just use them like fibs to get confluence s/R to trade from
yes they do work better on some more than others as do fibs and trendlines but i wouldnt trade without them on anything. they wrk well on all the majors with Eur/Usd being maybe just a touch more predictable.
doesent really...
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Thanks ... do you have an indicator?
Yeah AU trade worked out...but as you say there was a 'reaction' at that level....might get some volatility after economic news release. |
Apr 14, 2010 9:13am
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Closed AU @ 0.9339...think retrace is coming.
Went short CJ, UJ, AJ, GJ...@93.59, 93.51, 87.33, 144.21 - 1.5% risk on each. Will post charts and analysis later
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Apr 14, 2010 9:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Closed AU @ 0.9339...think retrace is coming.
Went short CJ, UJ, AJ, GJ...@93.59, 93.51, 87.33, 144.21 - 1.5% risk on each. Will post charts and analysis later
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... |
Apr 14, 2010 9:21am
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Sold GU @ 1.5451...
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Apr 14, 2010 9:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
That's the toughest week in last 4 months LJ, and it came out as i started trading my live account.  |
It definitely has been tough that's for sure...hopefully some yen strength will make for some winning trades...though without dow weakness I feel we weon't get a big move. Lots of choppyness this week, one trade I've got pending that looks a good setup is short oil @ 85.40.
It always seems the way doesn't it, risking real money and things start to change. |
Apr 14, 2010 9:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Me again,
when I opened the A/U trade I got something like a 7 pips spread!! I am using IBFX.
Just as curiosity what was your spread?
Thanks
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I have 7 pip spread on fxpro and 4 on alpari and Oanda.
MT4 generally sucks for spread compared to Oanda I find...if it wasn't for the charts and MQ4 I wouldnt use MT4. |
Apr 14, 2010 9:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi LJoy,
I also shorted A/U at 1.459, but DJ (equities) is going up and lately this has not a good effect on USD. I mean euro can get more strength.
I am in E/Cad too from 1.37 Monday PB, doing well so far.
I noticed providing the required confluence you are not intimidated by opening counter trades. Am I correct?
Cheers
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Yes, there isd a correlation between risk appetite and USD strength...if risk appetite is good dow goes up and USD goes down...and the commodity currencies like AU (with high interest rate differential too) benefit the most...well thats a simplistic picture and its not 100% correlation.
Also need to bear in mind Gold with A/U...for me gold was struggling to get above resistance thats why I exited A/U trade.
I'd much prefer to take some trend trades i.e. pick the beginning of a trend and ride breaks of peaks on the way or buy on pullbakcs...but this week thre has not been much trend action, thus I also like to pick range extremes or reversals / reactions at heavily confluenced areas.
I'm not that good at holding trades (which can help when not trending as the moves are small) but I've defintiely missed out on some decent trade where I've exited as a trend forms. |
Apr 14, 2010 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Whats wrong with 85.00?
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Nothing lol...for some reason I didnt see that, need to slow down a bit at times and take closer look at things as I do miss some obvious setups |
Apr 14, 2010 10:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Roughly same chart...I had the first resistance @ 85.40 ish hence why was foucussing on confluence here? |
Apr 14, 2010 11:18am
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Oil short got triggered @ 85.40 SL @ 86.40 - 2%
Added another UJ position @ 93.60, G/J @ 144.72 CJ@ 93.70 and went long AU again @ 0.9353 (should never had taken profit on earlier long)...2% on AU 0.5% on others.
Notice how dow has taken off but xxx/JPy is stalling (but xxx/USD is rising with Dow)...if only US retail and CPI numbers had been bad and JP Morgan + Intel earnings poor then xxx/JPY would have taken off lower fast....oh well.
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Apr 14, 2010 11:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Yeah I got this ...went in early to see if the 1HR double top holds |
Apr 14, 2010 11:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msmarple
Great thread, thanks.
eurcad buy possible IMO.....
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Thanks...yeah it filled the gap then bounced back up...I decided to hold onto this and leave the SL in place. |
Apr 14, 2010 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Oil short got triggered @ 85.40 SL @ 86.40 - 2%
Added another UJ position @ 93.60, G/J @ 144.72 CJ@ 93.70 and went long AU again @ 0.9353 (should never had taken profit on earlier long)...2% on AU 0.5% on others.
Notice how dow has taken off but xxx/JPy is stalling (but xxx/USD is rising with Dow)...if only US retail and CPI numbers had been bad and JP Morgan + Intel earnings poor then xxx/JPY would have taken off lower fast....oh well.
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You could see something was coming...as xxx/jpy should have been going up with dow and xxx/usd with increasing risk apetite and oil soaring yet c/j not moving...a drop was coming |
Apr 14, 2010 12:08pm
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Right might be closing these too soon (which is my biggest weakness) but I've closed all xxx/jpy pairs as follows:
C/J closed @ 93.20
U/J closed @ 92.90
a/J closed @ 86.90
G/J closed @ 143.80
TAG now @ 155.75% (those trades added over 30% to total account growth!)
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Apr 14, 2010 12:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Lovejoy,
Nice thread i like your trading style also finnaly somoene who trades oil aswell not many do that.
This what i see on oil might go down now if it wont break trendline i saw that your stop was at 86.40 bit close now.
I am waiting for bit more confirmation and will add my shorts  |
I've only recently started trading gold and oil...I find them much cleaner at times to trade in terms of clearer chart patterns than FX from my limited experience.
Reason for my trade was confluence of 61 fib, TL and weekly PPZ area...it soared above this but my SL is above the resistance zone we are now at...tempted to add another small short position. |
Apr 14, 2010 1:56pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Eventually I am wrong (I hope) E/U has at the moment also a bearish divergence in H4.
4 pips spread with Alpari and MT4 is not bad. I am looking for a new broker, I already have MT4 so I do not mind any suggestion?
Tx
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Have you tried Oanda...I prefer them over any MT4 I've ever used anyday...exact lot size, better spreads on average, less slippage and easier to get filled from my own epxerience...they dont have as many pairs as MT4 to trade and their charts suck, but for an actual trading platform for a retail platform I find them much better than MT4 brokers. |
Apr 14, 2010 2:12pm
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Added a small postion on E/CAD...should have taken profit at the gap close but didnt set my alert and it had retraced by the time I'd looked at it. Bounce of the TL, short @ 1.3623, SL @ 1.3660 - 1%
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Apr 14, 2010 2:34pm
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E/CAD looking cr*p...really should have got profit on this trade... having a trande turn from profit to full loss is very poor trading, should have set my TP or an alert but forgot...no excuse poor result.
Decided to add 1% to oil short @ 86.07, SL @ 86.40 again.
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Apr 15, 2010 2:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
This is my view on gbp/usd
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Looks good...my chart is similar...I'll be taking a counter trend short at the PPZ area you and I both marked...obvious area to expect a reaction...might not be a trend reversal but with a tight SL could get a few pips.
Went short G/J @ 144.76 SL @ 145.30 - 2% at risk...would have been better to get in nearer 145.00 but was asleep. |
Apr 15, 2010 2:13am
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Notice how you could have gone long after I exited on xxx/jpy and then short again at the S/R areas. I've attached AJ chart to show this.
The big nice surprise uppn looking at my charts was that EUR/CAD has rebounded down , have moved SL on second entry to BE and TP is the gap closure again which is now support area.
Exited EG short from 12/4 (0.8815) @ 0.8793.
TAG now @ 158.09%
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Apr 15, 2010 2:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Moved the stop from 145.40 to 145.10.
lets see.
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Wise move I feel...it has hit first trouble area and reversed...need to remind myself sometimes that these are counter-trend trades and thus need to cut quickly if they dont work..had quite a few of them this week, want to try and play some more trends ... peaks / valleys etc. |
Apr 15, 2010 3:27am
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Closed AU @ 0.9338...USD strengthening across the boards and AU broke it's 1HR TL.
Went short EU earlier @ 1.3648 and just added another one @ 1.3605 and have a pending order to add another one @ 1.3564 - target - closing of the gap.
SL on first @ BE SL (originally @ 1.3685) SL on second 1.3648 (2% risked on first , 1% on second).
Wish I was awake earlier to short aj,eg,cj and long uc.
Short G/CHF @ 1.6330, SL @ 1.6370, 2%
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Apr 15, 2010 3:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Good ones never come back LJ. 
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Ok lets do this one now.
. |
Yep, good point.
Lol...yep I'm with you on this...reckon our order sizes will send it plummeting lol |
Apr 15, 2010 3:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
There are some people taking my signals with their big money.
So every time i wan't a trade to go. I post it.
See what happened with GJ.
. |
lol...yeah just got some brekkie and saw gby/jpy...regretting not getting up earlier or setting pending shorts on most xxx/jpy now.
Ha, well my gchf order hasnt moved the market thus far...so you can assume I dont have big lot sizes |
Apr 15, 2010 4:07am
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E/A and E/C have taken off south ...decided to remove TP on EC and see if we can break through the gap/support level, I'll give it a bit of space and move SL 's down.
Taken short GU @ 1.6330 - 2% SL @ 1.6370
Looking to go long UC above 0.9997, short CJ below 93.02, GJ @ 143.35, EJ...about now!, AJ @ 86.75
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Apr 15, 2010 4:13am
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EJ short @ 126.43, SL @ 126.78, 2%
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Apr 15, 2010 4:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I am out with a little profit.
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I'm looking for 1.6300...will give it little moer time then cut if nothing happens |
Apr 15, 2010 4:30am
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Taken profit on GJ short @ 143.95 and on oil (the 86.07 short) @ 85.55.
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Apr 15, 2010 4:36am
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Short CJ @ 93.08, 2% SL @ 93.35
EU short triggered @ 1.3564 SL@1.3621, 1% (probably should have put order below that spike low).
TAG now @ 166.79%
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Apr 15, 2010 4:44am
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Exited EUR/CAD @ 1.3569...it hit the gap / support and is showing signs of retracing.
TAG now @ 172.96% (a new high woohoo! - Reached 160% briefly on sunday/monday when took profit on EU longs before realising losses from friday xxx/USD shorts).
Will not be trading tomorrow, need a break and some exercise (easy to burn muscle and put on fat when sitting on my arse for most of the day!) so will look through trades (I trade off 3 different brokers so record all trades in an excell spreadsheet) and produce some stats so I can can constructively critiscise later.
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Apr 15, 2010 4:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Tx for your reply.
One more question. Which broker do you use to trade oil, gold etc. FxPro ?
Any issue with them so far.
Tx
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fxPro or Oanda...no problems with them so far.
Oanda is easier to get more precise lot sizes (I am rubbish at working out correct lot size for amount @ risk of available equity quickly - I need to use a calculator like Oanda has)...although I am looking to try out spreadbetting gold and oil at IG Index (it's a UK thing - the biggest advantage is that any gains or not subject to capital gains tax compared to using a forex broker!). |
Apr 15, 2010 4:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Exited EUR/CAD @ 1.3569...it hit the gap / support and is showing signs of retracing.
TAG now @ 172.96% (a new high woohoo! - Reached 160% briefly on sunday/monday when took profit on EU longs before realising losses from friday xxx/USD shorts).
Will not be trading tomorrow, need a break and some exercise (easy to burn muscle and put on fat when sitting on my arse for most of the day!) so will look through trades (I trade off 3 different brokers so record all trades in an excell spreadsheet) and produce some stats so I can can constructively...
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Apr 15, 2010 5:02am
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Exited G/CHF @ BE.
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Apr 15, 2010 5:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Very late. 
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I was asleep |
Apr 15, 2010 5:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You traded the plan, and that's a good thing.
I went short yesterday on that little EURAUD daily pin but got out too quickly (got scared after the fast retrace off FTA @ 1.4570). Didn't stick to the plan (gap fill) and that's a no-no. Another entry in the journal to review at the end of the week.
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Yeah I know...I looked at the chart was retracing exited when wrote the post...looked again and it had gone through...I could still be more patient at times like that.
emotions and psychology associated with watching winners go back to BE or losing is what causes us to cut winners prematurely...we get scared as we see the $$$ getting lower in the profit column and that cuases our emotions to make us cut the trade. I found this very very hard to overcome at first...trading my P/L was my biggest issue and it took me a long time to re-wire my mind to trade a plan rather than exit upon emotional impulses. |
Apr 15, 2010 5:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Big thumbs up for you. 170% in 2 weeks is really something.
I'm going to do that sometime in the future. |
Thanks...it should be more though, still plenty to learn and improve on...there are far better traders on here than me, but hopefully it shows what can be done if you know where confluenced areas are etc. |
Apr 15, 2010 5:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Those emotional impulses s*ck. I'm doing them for some time and I don't seem to get over them. But a journal sure helps. That and not having the terminal window opened and leaving a trade to do it's thing without checking on it every 5 min. |
It took me ages and I'm still not that great at it...but I've accepted I'm never going to be able to trade completely emotinoless, as long as I can control them enough and most of the time then I do ok....see what I mean on exits...closed GJ far too early.
It is harder on the lower time frames as you have to constantly look at the charts when price is moving fast like yesterday and today...when price is moving slowly or trading higher tmieframes it is much easier to set alerts for areas you are interest in and when setting a trade setting alerts at problem areas and then just do something else (having a life) in between. I also used to hide the P/L column on my platform so I wouldnt make exit decisions based on P/L. |
Apr 15, 2010 5:23am
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Right more positions on AJ, EJ, CJ, UC,EC
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Apr 15, 2010 5:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Doing your position size in your head is a real good mental exercise. It's worth the effort. And it's not like calculating integrals and limits. |
I've tied but I just cant do it...trading in GBP doesnt help...I'm actualy pretty good at maths (physics degree) but seem to have a mental block in this regard...will try again to go through this over the weekend and see if I can crack it lol.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 15, 2010 5:27am
Reason: good not god at maths lol
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Apr 15, 2010 5:52am
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UC was long @ 0.9994 2%
EJ short @ 125.95 2%
GJ short @ 143.21 - 1%
E/C short @ 1.3547 - 2%
C/J short @ 93.08 - 2%
G/U added short @ 1.5407 - 1%
G/CHF (again ) short @ 1.6330 - 1%
short gold @ 1151.53 - 1%
Be back later on...
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Apr 15, 2010 7:26am
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Exited GU shorts @ 1.5385 - support level.
CJ hit TP @ 92.94 - could have reversed for a long.
EJ both exited @ 126.14
Oil exited @ BE
E/A exited @ 1.4510
G/CHF exited @ 1.6306
Gold out @ BE
AJ out @ BE
G/J, A/N, U/C, E/C, E/U still in play
TAG now @ 199.84%
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Apr 15, 2010 7:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I am short EJ from 126.84, GJ from 143.77, Gu from 1.5461 and long UC from 9963 and 9968.
And i have no idea what my equity is, how much floating profit i have or how much i made while taking partial profits.
And it's really helping me holding on to my winning trades.
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I find that defintely helps too...can the focus on trading the charts instead of trading the P/L.
Can you share why long UC from those levels? |
Apr 15, 2010 7:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Sorry LJ i was't paying attention to those figures.
You made 200% while risking 2% on each trade in two weeks?
Is that a real account?
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Yep...made nearly 200% in 8 trading days.
Yes, real accounts...I trade over three accounts on Oanda, fxPro and Alpari...not a big account (yet) but that's the aim.
you are better than me at entries and exits and spotting setups so I expect you to make more...yesterday and today must have made it a decent start to your first live week?
I record all trades and results in excell spreadsheet so I have one central place with all stats etc...attached is P&L graph for current close trades.
Had a quick look and win % is 67.5% if taking all trades but if not including trades which are part of an overall trade (i..e. going short E/U and adding positions and the last position is a loss but the overall net short position is a win then this is counted as win not loss) if taking these as net winners then win rate is 74.0%.
Biggest winner was 5.41R |
Apr 15, 2010 8:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, a little help is indeed needed.
I have it in Euros. |
Thanks I'll take a look at this later |
Apr 15, 2010 8:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am also crap in calculating sizes. I can send you a very simple excel calculator (my girlfriend did it for me LOL!).
First fill in your total equity and your risk % (Green cells).
Then:
Select the pair clicking on the yellow scrolling cell.
Select the number of pips for your SL
It calculates automatically your position size.
Hope it helps.
Congratulation with your achievement.
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Thanks for this |
Apr 15, 2010 8:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
WOHW!!!!
You should buy yourself a pressy. Congratulation again.
I will definitely follow you closely.
If I can ask, in terms of pips which have been the max gain/drawdown?
I like to ask you because my tendency is to hold on too much on a trade.
Tx
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Ha...not yet. I'm actualy unemployed...got made redundant end of March and thus living off saving and redundancy money at the moment until I find another job...in the meantime if I can create enough to mean I can quit and trade full time that would be a real bonus....that's the 'dream' at the moment.
Do you mean what is my biggest pip gain and loss on a single trade or whats my biggest balance drawdown / gain at any one time?
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Apr 15, 2010 8:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Thanks. I'm not playing IPB's at the moment although have read Ghous' posts on them (didnt have one on my feeds anyway)...am rubbish at spotting H&S patterns unless they are glaringly obvious! |
Apr 15, 2010 8:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Well 200% on a real account is a big thing if are risking just 2% on a trade.
Well no i am not anywhere near you. I am not taking profit at next trouble areas i even sometimes don't move my stops to be quick. I am trying to get in a runner but really can't find one.
anyway nice job and good luck.
. |
It's certainly been tough this week to find runners...very rangy and choppy, which has worked for me as my biggest weakness is cutting winners too soon.
Thanks and good luck to you too...keep posting, enjoy your charts and comments.
I'm hoping to hold EU shorts as the fact we couldnt break 1.3660 on the greece loan news makes me think the down trend will continue down to yearly lows...fundamentally the Euro still has big issues just listening to the news today there is still going to be a big problem giving aid to Greece....anway |
Apr 15, 2010 8:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Ha...not yet. I'm actualy unemployed...got made redundant end of March and thus living off saving and redundancy money at the moment until I find another job...in the meantime if I can create enough to mean I can quit and trade full time that would be a real bonus....that's the 'dream' at the moment.
Do you mean what is my biggest pip gain and loss on a single trade or whats my biggest balance drawdown / gain at any one time?
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My biggest winner in terms of pips is 1000 ...well I count it as 100 but my broker being a 5 digit broker counts it as 1000 (Gold long) - this was also my biggest winner 5.26R risking 3%...increase my balance by 15.79% compared to previous balance and my overal balance (compared to starting journal balance) by 34.32%...the power of compounding!
Worse trade(s) were the shorts entered on EU and GU last friday which obviously gapped up on Sunday open well above SL (collectively lost 15.22R on those) but of course made it back plus more by effectively hedging by going long EU (6x2% positions) pre-market open on Oanda. |
Apr 15, 2010 9:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
No Problem and Thanks.
Well i think i have to go through all of your post in this thread on the weekend. Hope i will learn something. |
I doubt you'll find anything knew as I learned a lot of it from reading all of your posts on FF ... it really is just compounding.. a 1R gain on 2% risk on my current closed balance represents a much bigger overall account gain that what it did when I started (well obviously it would have been 2% for the first trade). |
Apr 15, 2010 9:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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lol...well I obviously didnt get it did I lol...stupid me. All I saw was PPZ, TL and with trend but obviously failed badly. |
Apr 15, 2010 9:36am
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Long Gold @ 1153.97, SL @ 1150.03. 2%
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Apr 15, 2010 9:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Short UC?
I went long EJ 126.30 (Dale's Double as they call it (double IB) that turned into a somewhat H4 pin).
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That would have been good...I dont really play IB's to be honest, I find you have to be ultra picky with them, mostly I play them at really heavy confluenced areas and mainly BRN's...IxB's at these areas are good.
Could have quite easily reversed xxx/J shorts I had earlier and go long |
Apr 15, 2010 9:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
I do but I have seen some others so i will check them out and share the best ones here when i get time. Its 11.30 pm here in melbourne and i have a 7.00 am start so it will have to wait till the weekend
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That will be good thanks...then I'll have a play over weekend
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Apr 15, 2010 9:46am
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Exited GJ @ 143.80...should have gone long instead of adding a short.
EU - I'm still holding
UC - Still holding - looking to buy on dips (1HR chart a series of HH and HL's)
TAG now @ 196.84%
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Apr 15, 2010 9:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I reviewed some of your trades. In general you took profit (on average) after 50/60 pips, correct? Or at least at the first PPZ.
This is my problem. I should take profit sooner and than eventually re-enter after the retrace.
I will get better.
Cheers
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So you are leaving your trades to run longer? There is nothing wrong with this, as long as you can spot these areas and have a plan of what to do when price reaches these areas i.e. take all profit, move SL to BE, take partial profit, leave SL as is etc.
What I tend to do (havent done it for a while but will start to do once we get some clearer trends) is to take partial profit at a target area i.e. a PPZ, move SL to BE on the rest and let it run...it's a free trade then and then you can add in further positions if it does run on breaks of further support or on retraces to resistance. |
Apr 15, 2010 9:56am
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Exited 50% of gold @ 1156.70...moved SL to BE on other half...will add a position if price breaks PPZ (high being 1158.45) @ 1159.00
TAG now @ 199.92%
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Apr 15, 2010 10:09am
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pending long on oil @ 1159, 2% risk
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Apr 15, 2010 10:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Nicely done.
closed my UC longs.
I am long gj,ej,uj.gc
.
P.S: LJ i hope u don't mind me hanging out in your thread it's a bit more comfortable here to discuss aggressive entries. |
I thought you might be...I should have gone long too but winding down now before the weekend (not trading tomorrow).
Don't mind at all...I encourage it, it's good to be able to discuss these types of setups...I liemsharing ideas, setups and thoughts too...can only help us all and as you say can't discuss them too much elsewhere |
Apr 15, 2010 10:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I would like to post 1 example and get your view.
Trade is in profit, moved SL to + some pips at previous PPZ / Swing low.
Options are:
1) I should have taken full profit at 1.45 level before the retrace
2) Half profit at that level
3) Let it run that It is what I did.
Appreciate your help.
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My thoughts are as follows:
The first glaring point to make is you dont appear to have a tradig plan...i.e. you've spotted a good setup , calculated your risk and SL etc but dont appear to have metnally said here is where I will move to BE, here is where I will take partial profit, here is where I will take full profit i.e. marking trouble areas and planning in advance how you will react to them....I worked really hard on this a while ago...I would write out all target/trouble areas and what I would do at each area (unless price was moving really fast i.e. if it blows through an area I wouldnt take profit lol) and I would set an alert to alert me when price got close to that area and I would trade according to my plan ...this then removes all emotions in your trading emotions are bad then onlky ever produce worse results IMO and when you have to make a decision when you can see a trade has moved into decent profit and starts to retrace your emotions take over...why...cause you have a fear of profit decreasing, turning into BE or worse a loss...removing the emotion attached to money is so so hard but so important, to be able to detach yourself from money and just trading a plan is the ultimate aim but so many people cant do this and dont realise why they cant do this.
I was in EUR / AUD trade from 1.4605 and took all profit @ 1.4510...why cos this is an area I marked as potential trouble (well the round number) and I had decided if it was towards the end of the week (I'm not trading tomorrow) I would take profit.
You are in the situation now where you dont know what to do and your mind is seeing the profit that your trade was at and it slowly go down as price retraces and if you are like I was, part of me would be screaming take profit take profit and the other half would be screaming give it space it might go back down ... it's your emotions battling themselves and it is tough to make a logical decision at this point...whereas if you had produed a plan prior to the trade you'd be just executing it and as long as you traded your plan you should be happy whatever the outcome.
Hope that makes sense...not meant as having a go or anything just trying to help.... |
Apr 15, 2010 10:53am
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Notice how spotting good locations is key...I reckon Nasir was short from near 145 and long from near 143.60 area...it's not difficult to see why.
145 is a daily/weekly PPZ combined with a TL connecting recent highs and obviously a BRN plus 61 fib retracement from october - March i.e. a good confluence area where you can expect a reaction and potentially a reversal.
The aggresive style is to play a touch of this area...i.e. short with a relatiely tight SL thus if price reverses quickly you are in from the top / beginning of the move...if it sails through this area you are out very quickly. The conservative approach is wait for price action to give us an indication that price will reverse i.e. outside bar, pin bar etc. Scrolling down the time frames we had a pin bar on the 1HR.
spotting where price might reverse is the next target and 143.55 again is a highly confluence area (remember trend is up on 4HR too now) TL, daily PPZ, 50% retrace of recent move on 4HR....thus a good area to reverse and take a long...once again a more conservative trader can wait for price action and notice we get a pin bar on 4HR.
You casn see how noticing and knowing the key locations in advance makes trading these areas quite straightforward.
Ideally you would have had a short from 145 - 143.60 with say 30pip SL and then long 143.60 with 30pip SL thus 140 pips for first trade or 4.67R and if you'd taken profit @ 144.50 on long (i.e. first trouble area marked) you would have a profit of 90 pips or 3R so two trades in a few hours with 7.76R.
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Apr 15, 2010 11:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Exited 50% of gold @ 1156.70...moved SL to BE on other half...will add a position if price breaks PPZ (high being 1158.45) @ 1159.00
TAG now @ 199.92%
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Update on gold...second order now in play SL on both moved up to 1156...if it hits next target marked I'll move SL's up to BE on second trade and will buy a break if it happens...trend is up so trying to add positions in direction of the trend. (have put SL'd quite tight...not giving much room on this trade). |
Apr 15, 2010 11:04am
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E/C out @ BE.
U/C added another long @ touch of rising TL @ 0.9969...oil hasn't really moved, CJ down so doesnt make sense for UC to be going down.
SL @ 0.9962 on both 1% on each
Closed EU shorts all @ 1.3569...I'll get back in at a better price rather than play out the ranging action.
TAG now @ 208.61%
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Apr 15, 2010 11:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
closed all and shorted gj @ 144.40.
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Playing the range brilliantly my friend |
Apr 15, 2010 12:17pm
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Closed UC longs @ 1.0013...first target area. Great %R on second trade 7pip SL, 44 pip gain.
Gold hit target so moved SL up and it got hit on retrace so both gold longs out @ 1159.
TAG now @ 233.20%
Long AJ, EJ ,CJ, short UC now...
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Apr 15, 2010 12:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You're on fire |
I hope not... |
Apr 15, 2010 12:29pm
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UC short @ 1.0010 SL @ 1.0020 -1%
CJ long @ 92.95 SL @ 92.77 - 1%
EJ long @ 126.13, SL @ 125.78
AJ long @ 86.86, SL @ 86.65 - 1%
I got some awful spreads on these trades for some reason...didnt check them before I entered. Must keep an eye on spreads before I enter from now on.
That will be it for today and the week unless some great 4HR / daily setups present themselves later.
Gonna switch to just using Oanda from next week as MT4 is just pi*sing me off too much.
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Apr 15, 2010 2:57pm
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Was just looking for quick few pips back up too PPZ to sell on 1HR charts...went up but then stalled out on all @ BE and reversed on CJ and UC.
Long UC @ 1.0021, SL @ 1.0000, 1%
Short C/J @ 92.81, SL@ 93.15, 1%.
Could do with Oil breaking down out of its small range.
A/NZD hit SL a while ago....it didnt hit first target area on weekly chart...but on daily it hit an obvious area and reversed...an area that I missed.
TAG now @ 227.31%
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Apr 15, 2010 3:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gjworley1952
Have you tried FXCM , been using them for 2 yrs , no complaints . They just added oil an metals , good luck , Gary |
No, I'll have a look...My biggest gripe with MT4 (well on brokers I've used) is that it takes multiple attempts to get filed or close a trade at times when price is moving (not necessarily at news related times) when I never have a problem with re-quotes on Oanda and secondly in order to do pending orders for most pairs price must be 50-100 pips away whereas Oanda there is no minimum distance...not being able to put pending orders closer is really inconvenient at times as I have to stay and watch price or set an alert rather than just setting the order and moving on. |
Apr 16, 2010 1:51am
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Just woke up and saw my UC long and CJ short doing well...some decent moves on xxx/JPY in Asia.
CJ went to first main target area and now have a pin bar on 4HR so going to exit trade here...stop to BE on UC trade.
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Apr 16, 2010 2:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
And another 1
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If I'm not mistaken both of these have broken out now...so question answered. I like UC longs...a series of Hh and HL on 1HR chart |
Apr 16, 2010 2:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Hey guys, love reading your posts on James16 thread and I wondered if you posted any where else. Kick ass thread, LoveJoy80!
I think this thread will motivate me to get my butt into bed earlier, so I can get out of bed earlier, and read this thread along with watch the charts more.
Thanks!
T.J.
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Thanks...glad it will help motivate you. |
Apr 16, 2010 2:17am
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Just had a quick look at my xxx/jpy charts...although I've banked some decent profit on playing these over the last 2 days I don't feel I've played them anywhere near as good as I could/should have. I posted earlier in the week saying that I was anticipating xxx/JPY to fall as all the 'signals' were there....thus I should still be holding xxx/JPY shorts and E/U shorts now...I need to stop going in and out of trades so much ...or maybe in addition to playing between PPZ areas I need to also have some trades which I'm willing to hold onto for a few days and add positions on major PPZ breaks / retracements.
E/J is a classic example...should be holding EJ shorts until 125 area
I'll post more detailed critical analysis with charts later.
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Apr 16, 2010 2:53am
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I knew a drop in xxx/JPY was coming ... the post below was a warning sign to expect JPY strength.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=129
Also look @ EU (picking EU and EJ as an example as this is the pair I played particularly badly!) despite dow soaring and the positive news last Sunday about the Greece laon agreement we couldn't get above the PPZ area of 1.3660 - 70 area...thus bias is defintely short. The fact Dow was soaring and xxx/USD were going up slightly but xxx/JPY were not moving were big signals that a drop was coming.
Then if you look at the location of EU (failure to get above PPZ mentioned above) and EJ is at a great setup (Rac's favourite for those who know his trading style)...PPZ, in between 50/61 fib retracement (all on daily) ... thus actively should be looking for some decent size shorts on xxx/JPY.
Look @ 4HR EJ...an obvious set up (after we had the first fake break of 127.11 support area) of a double top with great divergence....bang this is our big short opportunity @ 127.60 ish with SL above the PPZ and previous high (see dailty chart) @ 128.00....thus 40 pip SL.
Then it would have been a case of just selling on breaks of the PPZ areas on the way down...with an obvious overal target of 125 (61.8 % retracement of move, BRN and PPZ plus near rising TL). Thus selling on break with SL above each peak.
Thus selling @ 126.50 SL @ 127.15 and another short @ 125.90 SL @ 126.45
Overal result would have been 3 trades with 6.5R, 2.31R, 1.64R so 2% risked on each is 20.9% increase to account from one setup over a couple of days with normal money management.
You can see the double top and divergence and the whole move down between PPZ areas even more clearly on 1HR chart.
There were similiar setups on other xxx/JPY pairs and EU etc.
Thus although I played some decent trades this week and the account is doing really well...there is much improvement needed...I need to zoom out and take a step back at times to look at the bigger picture...after all I knew the move was likely to happen but was too zoomed in and too intent on playing the 1HR chart and being in and out (which is fine too) whereas my main focus should have been to trade the overal move down - I knew where price would go but played it very badly (I had two shorts on EJ 126.45 - 126.14 and 125.95 which got stopped out @ 126.14) as was too zoomed in and too intent on being in and out quickly. |
Apr 16, 2010 2:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
The worst thing you did was last night when (i again asked why. lol) you closed the dream entry of UC and went short right in the face of a BUOB.
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Yeah I know...I re-looked at my charts after your hint and was very angry...hence why I got out at BE...was a really bad mistake...been overtrading this week and lacking discipline over the last 2 days (I reckon cos the account is doing so well) and that was the result...I didnt even see the BUOB at the time and was just intent on closing down for the week.
Been too zoomed in to the hourly charts...didnt even look @ UC 4HR chart at the time...need to focus on looking at the bigger picture next week, taking less trades and holding them longer. I'd rather trade how you trade the G/J than just be in and out between PPZ areas - it's mentally tiring being in and out of a lot of trades all the time.
Not trading today as out for most of the morning...a good few days to clear my head, learn from my mistakes yesterday and come back more empowered on Monday
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 16, 2010 3:06am
Reason: added paragrapgh
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Apr 16, 2010 3:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Here are the Results.
Ej did not hit the sell order. EU worked out to the pip. I closed Gu by mistake while moving the stops so got in again. And GJ is the runner i was looking for.
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well played my friend...a difficult start to the week, but your reward for patience is certainly playing off now.
Where are my GJ, EU and GU shorts...oh yeah closed them all yesterday |
Apr 16, 2010 3:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok LJ,
What i am going to tell you is what i have learnt myself i did not just read in the forums but i did experienced it myself.
1- Trade away from the range (consolidations) not towards them. (your UC trade last night)
2- Whenever you'r going to reverse your positions look at bar size you'r going against. (your eu gu trades last friday)
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Thanks Nasir...I actually know this deep down so it must be a lack of discipline at the time and being in too much of a rush to enter trades that is overpowering the sensible part of my mind.
I was very lucky with EU,GU shorts in that I could hedge pre-market on Sunday on Oanda...wasn't a pleasant experience and without it I would have had some decent size losses. Luckily I've learnt the lessons without suffering much financial damage.
Thanks for your continuing input... |
Apr 16, 2010 3:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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Yeah...tiny bar on my feed and clearly in a downtrend on 1H timeframe...cant see this bar stopping the bears....more likely to be just a pause before continuing down IMO |
Apr 16, 2010 3:29am
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nasir - would you / did you take a touch trade @ 125 on EJ?
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Apr 16, 2010 3:31am
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Gold has been in a clear up trend (would have been a great trend to play all the way)...but now we have a squeeze...still making HL on 4HR but three successive LH mean we are in a squeeze / consolidation waiting for a break out....the consolidation can be seen more clearly on 1HR chart.
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Apr 16, 2010 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi everybody,
let's hope we close the Euro gap today.
Just a simple question LJ. What tool do you use to put comments on your charts? Is it MS Paint?
Tx
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Jing
http://www.jingproject.com/ |
Apr 16, 2010 7:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
What was that spike about.
anyways. 
. |
Just got back ...the spike was a real nice chance to get in with a sell that's what it was...a gift on a plate there. |
Apr 16, 2010 8:22am
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I know I wasn't going to trade today...but I couldn't resist...got in very late (compared to Nasir) but was out all morning
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Apr 16, 2010 10:52am
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Just took a look at my xxx/jpy shorts....
Friday madness or news related??? |
Apr 16, 2010 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Just took a look at my xxx/jpy shorts....
Friday madness or news related??? |
wow just heard about the Goldman charges on CNBC...as it's Friday and volatility is high...I've taken half of all trades (apart from AJ) off the table and moved SL to BE on all.
I'd like to asses this news over the weekend as if GS is benig charged I reckon other firms will be in the frame soon so this could develop into something more over the weekend.
U/C trade from yesterday was stopped out @ BE....played this really badly...Nasir played it well. I had a great initial entry too.
C/J trade as mentioned earlier was exited @ 92.41 (trade from yesterday).
Today...as mentioned earlier I shorted U/J, G/J, E/J, A/J, C/J...wasn't supposed to trade today but saw these when opened charts and although pretty late to the party this was pretty easy money as far as I can see...was quite aggreisve with risk 2% on each so cumulatively 10% but wouldnt have let all trades hit SL. All trades have hit PPZ areas I have marked and with volatility we could easily get retracements on a Friday so taken half profit and moved SL to BE on rest.
U/J short @ 92.72, SL @ 93.05 exited @ 92.30 on half
G/J short @ 143.43, SL @ 143.95 exited half @ 142.00
E/J short @ 125.59, SL@ 126.15 exited half @ 124.60
A/J short @ 86.36, SL @ 86.85 moved SL to BE
C/J short @ 92.49, SL@ 93.00 exited half @ 91.10 |
Apr 16, 2010 11:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
That's the toughest week in last 4 months LJ, and it came out as i started trading my live account. |
Bet you're not thinking that now |
Apr 16, 2010 11:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
60% in the last 2 days. hmmm not bad.
But stil stresfull.
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It is...I'm mentally exhausted...but it's worth it though for 60% in 2 weeks in your first week of live trading |
Apr 16, 2010 11:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
what's the TAG?
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Total Account Growth |
Apr 16, 2010 12:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
lol, i know that What's the figure? |
lol..sorry.
Its 260.22%...but deciding when to sell other hald of xxx/jpy shorts. I feel we'll see a retracement before heading back down and it's Friday so might be wise to take profit |
Apr 16, 2010 12:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Gold has been in a clear up trend (would have been a great trend to play all the way)...but now we have a squeeze...still making HL on 4HR but three successive LH mean we are in a squeeze / consolidation waiting for a break out....the consolidation can be seen more clearly on 1HR chart.
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When price is being squeezed in a consolidation it is like a spring be coiled tighter...when it breaks out it will initially breakout fast due to the buildup of orders...this is bit of an extreme example though lol |
Apr 16, 2010 12:33pm
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Gotta finish for the day as off out...cant be doing with these trades still open and wondering whether we get more of a fall or big retracement so closed all other hald positions (and full AJ) @ the following:
UJ - 92.10
GJ - 141.75
EJ - 124.27
AJ - 85.25
CJ - 90.79
All positions now closed.
TAG now @ 309.81% i.e. original balance has increased this much.
Have a good weekend all, I'll be back over weekend at some point.
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Apr 17, 2010 4:47am
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Just been ding some review on trades. Obviously happy with the account growth but that doesn't mean I haven't made mistakes...I feel you are always learning and improving as a trader and the best way to learn is to actually put your knowledge into action and trade and then review your trades and learn from mistakes.
My two biggest mistakes were on xxx/JPY which I've already mentioned previously and the second one on U/C.
Towards the end of the week I was entering too many trades, rushing my analysis...probably reading FF threads too much and not zooming out and looking at the overal setup...U/C was a good example of this.
As Nasir pointed out I had a dream of an entry when price pulled back to the 1HR trendline on Thursday as per this entry stated here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=212
My thoughts on what I did wrong are in the following charts...
If I had done what I should have done (it is always eeasier to analsye in retrospect after the event...but this is the ultimate aim, to be able to trade objectively by what the charts are telling me without any emotions at all) then I wouldn't have closed my 1HR entry instead I would have added 1% above closing of 4HR BUOB @ 1.0019 with SL @ 0.9964 (below low of BOUB) and then taken half of overal trade i.e. 1% (as have 2% on risk) @ 1.0050 a clear PPZ area and moved SL up on both to 0.9995 and then I wouod have either taken all profit near close (as it's Friday) or if it wasn't Friday I would have SL @ 1.0095
Thus two trades:
1. 0.9969 SL @ 0.9962 1%
2. 1.0019 SL @ 0.9964 1%
Take half profit (from each trade) @ 1.0050
(As it's Friday) take rest of profit @ 1.0120
Result - 17.78R 9 (if my maths is correct!) or 35.56% compared to my actual result of 6.29R / 6.29%
If being more aggresive could have easily added another long on break of PPZ @ 1.0060 too.
Now combine this with my analysis of what i should have done on EJ here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...nt=235...these two trades alonf would result in over 56% account growth from very normal conservative money management.
(remember there were similar setups across other xxx/JPY pairs plus also some setuos on GU and EU I played poorly) you can see how my account should (if I'd played these trade objectively, calmly, without any emotions - doing exactly what my charts were teling me) be much much higher.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 17, 2010 5:04am
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Apr 17, 2010 5:55am
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So my aims from next week are as follows:
1. Be more calm, disciplined, emotionless, objective and trade what my charts tell me
2. Ensure I zoom out and look at the bigger picture at all times.
3. I'm not going to update my TAG after each trade from now on. I keep a record of all my results on excel as I do now but I will not calculate an update until end of each week...this will help not focussing and getting excited by account growth etc.
4. I will not have many threads open - I will be focussed on this thread, and J16 only and will heavily focussed on my charts and being calm objective and disciplined.
5. I want to focus on holding trades longer and trying to pick runners...taking partial profits i.e. banking some whilst giving price a chance to run on the rest is something I will do more often. This suits my personality i.e baking regular profits whilst giving price a chance to to run and turn into a bigger winner.
6. As well as taking intraday trades also want to look for more long term trades based on trends based on daily timeframe
7. Take note of Nasir's hints lol.
In terms of my watchlist I have the following pairs which are my constant intraday focus:
E/U
USD/CHF (correlated with E/U but good to compare as can give warning of potential reversal etc in EU)
A/U
G/U
U/C
E/G
U/J
A/J
C/J
E/J
G/J
Gold
Oil
I also have every othe pair that FxPro offer on another wathclist to watch look at at the end of each day for daily trades or where approahcing areas of interest BRN, PPZ area and then I'll move it to the intra-day list.
I find it hard to focus on many pairs at once and think my watchlist is just about manageable for me.
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Apr 17, 2010 6:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
This one will haunt you for a long time. lol
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Yep...it was hard work doing that analysis lol...
But I never try and beat myself up to much as this can affect your mindset going forward and I also remind myself that the market is open 24/5 and there is ample opprtunities in this business to make up for mistakes. Making mistakes can be good as they open your eyes sooner to errors that you can learn from, adapt and change i.e. you come back as a stronger, better trader. Lastly, I've had the added bonus that my mistakes have not actually cost me money just not gained as much as I should have.
Did you keep your shorts open over weekend or decide to close them by the way...I was torn between closing or keeping open but decided to close.
How did you find your first week trading live...any different to demo? |
Apr 17, 2010 12:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I went through your journal again during the weekend. Congratulations again on your achievement.
I just noticed (may be the count is wrong) that on average you are taking around 15 trades x day but you also said that you are opening too many positions.
At my level I am not able to find so many set ups in one day.
Is the large number of positions a strategy to diversify risk?
Enjoy your weekend
Tx
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I don't really focus on how many trades I have open (well only from a money management perspective) I just trade what setups I see on the charts. Obviously if trend trading and adding further positions in the direction of the trend this could be quite a few trades.
I do feel I need to slow down a bit and take more time to analyse and manage my trades better hence my view is to be more clam in my trading, waiting patiently for the good setups and keep abreast of the whole situation in the pairs I follow - much like my UC trade - I was too zoomed in and not mentally calm and thus didnt look at the 4HR tiumeframe and missed the obvious etc.
Thus it is not to diversify risk...I dont really concern myself with that apart from when setting amout to risk per trade where I'll bear this in mind i.e. if going short multiple xxx/jpy pairs etc.
My advice would be to choose some pairs to watch and mark on the major weekly and daily support/resistance areas on your chart together with any trendlines. Then mark the major S/R areas on the 4HR timeframe and wait for them to line up...draw fibs retracements from major swings...look for divergence and watch price action at these areas...this is in essence a major part of my trading...identifying high levels of confluence @ major S/R areas then either taking a touch trend or waiting for price action and then if the trend develops adding further positions on the break of pre-identified S/R areas on the 4HR / 1HR timeframe. |
Apr 17, 2010 1:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Yea we are crying for not making more profit in a market where 95% are losing so that's not a bad start for us LJ. |
yeah we shouldn't beat ourselves up too much at times like this...just make a mental note and learn from it ... there is a good paragraph in ROASO about learning from mistakes...I'll see if I can dig it out at some point...I know you've read it too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I closed my Yen shorts which i took on the spikes. I was holding my trades for the whole week and they kept on coming back and stopping me out and when i decided to close them...
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The transition can be tough...but you've done your homework and been on demo for 6 months so you've given yourself the best chance to succeed in this business and I know you'll do very well...you are further forward than me in 'the journey' I feel even though I've probably been trading longer (being older the brain is hard to change and to adapt to how it needs to be to be a succesful trader I reckon).
I see you have a liking for Cricket...do you still play? I used to play years ago but still actively follow my county and England. Nice picture of Lords on your profile...have you ever been? |
Apr 18, 2010 7:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, a little help is indeed needed.
I have it in Euros. |
Thanks for this...just tried it out...very handy |
Apr 18, 2010 1:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Have you seen this post by Dan? It's a very interesting way of drawing PPZ.
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Yeah, I follow J16 thread too...not really for me to be honest, personally I think you should be able to spot PPZ areas by the eye...areas where price had flipped should be pretty obvious to see.
Just looking through my daily and weekly charts now so will post anything that I see of interest to me later. Be interesting to see how the market opens and what follow on affect the Goldman Sachs civil lawsuit will have on the equity markets tomorrow. |
Apr 18, 2010 4:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
GC and the JPY pairs are all at or very near PPZ. It will be interesting to see how the markets open.
How do you play these pairs now? Wait for tomorrow morning or are you jumping in?
And gold? Buy at 1119 or waiting for 1100 again? 1100 is very interesting If I weren't on probation I would buy there. |
Just looked @ Gold...here is what I see in the immediate vicinity on the daily and 4H chart... |
Apr 18, 2010 4:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
GC and the JPY pairs are all at or very near PPZ. It will be interesting to see how the markets open.
How do you play these pairs now? Wait for tomorrow morning or are you jumping in?
And gold? Buy at 1119 or waiting for 1100 again? 1100 is very interesting If I weren't on probation I would buy there. |
I'll be waiting for tomorrow....I'll watch market open (15 mins on one of my brokers) but as I'll be going to sleep shortly after, unless I play some gap trades I'll be getting a good nights sleep ready to see what happens tomorrow.
It will definitely be interesting to see how the markets react to the GS news from Friday and as you say xxx/JPY are all at interesting PPZ areas now so I'd like to wait and see whether we get a retracment following the sharp moves on Friday or just contintue in the same direction...never keen on opening trades @ Sunday open and just leaving them over night.
Dont see anything of real interest that screams trade me from the weekly / daily charts on all other pairs I follow. |
Apr 18, 2010 5:00pm
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Nasir - another contest for you...
http://www.myfxbook.com/contests
Although note the clause below...
FXDD requires that the customer trade a minimum of N standard lot round turn trades before 12/31/2010 in order to be eligible to withdraw any prize money. N being the amount of dollars in prize money received divided by 20. For example: If $2,000 is deposited as the prize, the minimum number of trades would be 2000/20=100. Therefore 100 standard lot round turn trades is required in order to be eligible to withdraw any prize money. FXDD reserves the right to rescind any prize money if the original prize deposit is withdrawn within 30 days from original deposit date. |
Apr 18, 2010 5:09pm
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Anyone who kept their short xxx/jpy g/u, e/u or long u/c trades open from last week has had a nice start to the trading week thus far!
I've got a question if you did have a trade open and had a TP st say 20 pips below the closing price on Friday and the price on Sunday opening on your broker shows a gap 100 pips down from Friday close does your trade automatically get closed at the TP you set or will it still be open because of the gap...I know if you hada SL and the market gapped it would still be open (from first hand experience last week on EU and GU gaps) but do you get the benefit when it happens in the right direction on your trade?
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Apr 19, 2010 2:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
You does't sound so old i think you must be around 23-24.
I never played regular (club) cricket only in streets when i was 12. Then some issue's like money and time did't gave me a chance to pursue my dream. I've never been to lords but would like to someday to watch an Ashes test match. I am a big fan of both KP and Punter but it's always fun to watch England winning.
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Ha, I wish...I'm the old age of 30!
Uderstand. I didn't see any of the last Ashes live but I was at Edgbaston in the previous Ashes...an amazing test. The last two Ashes in England have been the best test series I've ever seen...so many twists and turns and so so close...such enjoyble to watch..yet tense. |
Apr 19, 2010 2:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Last one was horrible experience. Just 1 bad trade cost me 2000$.
Well i will look into it.Thanks
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yeah I remember you saying...E/G couter trend trade wasn't it?
i'll be doing it...nothing to lose and lot's to gain...though having to trade 20 standard lot trades on $2k winnings before withdrawing will test the nerves. |
Apr 19, 2010 2:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I just went short across the board just before the market close. I know it's a bad thing to do but the setups were there, and R:R was so irresistible. 
Did't had enough margin for GU. lol.
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Ok i have closed two of these posted below tell me which ones?
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E/J and G/J....  |
Apr 19, 2010 4:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning
Any Thoughts?
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nice pin bar, divergence, @ a swing low but 1st trouble area is way too close for my liking... |
Apr 19, 2010 4:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Lets see if this one works out
Look at the empty zone between 238-138.
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yeah...lots of space...considering taking the break of the 'valley' too...though I'd be more comfortable taking this if I had your initial open sell position on my account too lol |
Apr 19, 2010 4:57am
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Sold GU @ 1.5243 SL@ 1.5271 - 1%. Pending Order @ 1.5207 same SL , 1%.
As outlined by Nasir, plenty of space below so first sell is on pullback to S/R and pending order a sale on break of support / valley.
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Apr 19, 2010 5:03am
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Wanted to sell Oil @ 81.40 but FxPro wouldnt take my order for some reason on May Future...not this first time this has happened.
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Apr 19, 2010 5:07am
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Pin bars @ PPZ with hidden divergence...not taking them myself...been ill over night so need to go back to bed. Be back for US open.
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Apr 19, 2010 5:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Wanted to sell Oil @ 81.40 but FxPro wouldnt take my order for some reason on May Future...not this first time this has happened.
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Sold June future instead...and pending short on AU. Will update later |
Apr 19, 2010 6:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
CLK is expired now, you can trade CLM.
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Ahh yes of course. |
Apr 19, 2010 6:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Check it out now. It works on #CL, #EP and Gold.
It has to be modified for each broker, it's not a work-for-all indicator...
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Thanks for this. |
Apr 19, 2010 6:40am
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Sold CJ on break of valley
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Apr 19, 2010 6:47am
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Closed half of oil trade @ 82.21 (a tad late - 4HR PPZ @ 82) and moved Sl to BE+1 on remaining half position
Open trades at moment:
G/U Short @ 1.5207, SL@ 1.5271 - 1%
G/U Short @ 1.5423, SL@ 1.5271 - 1%
Oil Short @ 82.97 SL @ 83.90 - closed half @ 82.21, Sl moved to 82.96
C/H short @ 90.00, SL @ 90.54 - 1%
Pending short on A/U @ 0.9155 SL@ 0.9178 - 1%
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Apr 19, 2010 6:57am
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Just placed risky counter trend long trades on G/J and E/J.
Only 0.5% risked on each.
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Apr 19, 2010 7:17am
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BEOB on E/G with divergence @ PPZ
Short @ 0.8818 SL @ 0.8844 - 2%
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Apr 19, 2010 7:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Double bottom PBs on NZD/JPY
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Not a pir I follow intraday...but had a look and nothing on my feed to trade off...can you post a chart? |
Apr 19, 2010 7:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I saw that the info on CADJPY is a bit wrong
I checked with my FxPro, modified it and it should work ok. Sorry about that.
That H1 BEOB on EG off of PPZ and 365, is it worth anything? (Maybe for closing the gap?)
Edit: Just saw your post. I guess it is worth it |
Yeah that did have me scratching my head when calculating the lot size for that trade lol.
Thanks for fixing |
Apr 19, 2010 7:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Guys,
I am looking for a good round number indicator would be nice if someone could share it?
- I also had some questions have you been members of j16 private forum or you 2 just readed the thread.
-What kind of threads or books you will recomend more?
Thanks for help
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Yeah, I just read some of the summaries and then just followed the thread to understand and asked questions. Also I would recommend watching Jims rants video in the guest section on the PF website.
I was a member of the PF for 2 months a while back...PM me any specific questions you have in this regard.
Only trading book I've ever read (well got 30 pages to go...) is ROASO.
Other threads I would recommend are:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=62141
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723 |
Apr 19, 2010 7:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Oh yeah, and another question.
How do you keep up with so many pairs intraday? Because switching constantly between 10 pairs makes me lose focus. I mark the PPZ and stuff but there are things that you can miss when switching from pair to pair.
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lol...it can be tough at times...but the xxx/USD and xxx/JPY a large part of the time follow each other so it's like watching two pairs. Other than that I just set audible alerts at major areas where I want to watch price approach.
I miss trades too and find it hard to focus at times when a lot is going on, but the beauty of this business is that you don't need to take every possible trading setup in order to be succesful as there are so many opportunities.
I used to get very frustrated at seeing others take trades that soared that I missed but learnt to be relaxed about this as there are so many opportunities in this market.
My biggest frustrating moment (which still hurts) was closing my U/C trade last week which had a 7 pip SL (as per my posts at weekend)  ...but you learn to move on with a fresh mindset as there are lots of opportunities through the course of the week and if you do take too many trades you can lose focus and mis-manage the ones you do take - that's what Iwas guilty off towards the end of last week. |
Apr 19, 2010 7:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Here another 1 of oil lets see how it goes
 |
Perfectly good reason for an entry...strong down trend though, that would be my concern. I did consider a touch trade @ 82.00 but decided not to and of course have a short trade on the go.
There were a few touch trades that would have worked out this morning. |
Apr 19, 2010 8:18am
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Here were my entries on GJ and EJ:
GJ long @ 139.93, SL @ 139.30 - 0.5%
EJ long @ 123.55, SL @ 123.10 - 0.5%
Exited EJ @ 123.48 and GJ @ 140.09 - both failed to break above their 1HR resistance and retraced...was looking for quick sharp break...
Really should have waited for Oil to break 82.00 before going short CJ.
There were nice touch trade setups on EJ,GJ,Oil, E/G and G/CHF to name a few this morning.
Will add another position on EG on a break of 8800 and will take some profit @ 8785.
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Apr 19, 2010 8:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You shorted G/U this morning and you added later a E/G short. Unless Euro falls apart, is it not a kind of conflict?
Do not take me wrong, I d like to understand your thoughts.
Cheers
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Not really...as whats stopping Euro falling quicker the GBP? Didnt take a EU short as the setup was better on GU.
They are both falling so I took GU as clear valley and peaks compared to EU and BEOB on E/G indicates that EU will fall faster than GU. |
Apr 19, 2010 8:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I agree with you I am also in this trade from .8820. I also think you do not want to see your currency falling apart before the elections. LOL!!
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The Euro is fundamentally weaker than the GBP over the medium / long term IMO...it is in serious trouble and I expect to see parity by end of the year. GBP is being weighed fundamentally at the moment due to possibility of a hung parliment which is a strong possibility as all three parties are quite close...with the knock on affect that a hung parliment might not make decisions quck enough in order to cut our budget deficit.
I have most of my savings in USD and am in the process of converting all my trading funds into USD too...only thing that affects me personally is my holiday next year will be expensive if GBP continues to weaken (Off to Hong Kong and Malaysia). |
Apr 19, 2010 8:43am
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EG pending short is @ 0.8897 with SL @ 0.8823 - 1%
Hmmm look at G/CHF now...that touch trade and Oil would have been great.
Exited G/J too soon looking at price now...looks like a retrace is occuring prior to US open. GBP has had a surge and looking like both GU shorts will hit SL and CJ is close too. Not the best start to the week!
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Apr 19, 2010 8:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EG pending short is @ 0.8897 with SL @ 0.8823 - 1%
Hmmm look at G/CHF now...that touch trade and Oil would have been great.
Exited G/J too soon looking at price now...looks like a retrace is occuring prior to US open. GBP has had a surge and looking like both GU shorts will hit SL and CJ is close too. Not the best start to the week!
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Yep SL hit on GU - both exited @ 1.5271.
Not impressed with the sudden GBP strength...cant bear to look at GJ and GCHF at the moment lol.
On ther plus side EG is soaring down...second order in play and SL moved down on first order to same as second order...targetis 8785 where I will take half of table (if price continues down with the current strength) and move SL to 8800 on the other half. |
Apr 19, 2010 9:02am
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I was looking to sell but the BUOB (on 1HR) has put me off...I'll sell a break of the low or buy a small position on break of 92.23 highs with SL below the BUOB low.
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Apr 19, 2010 9:18am
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CJ trade hit SL @ 90.54....a poor entry in retrosepct. Other half of Oil trade still in play will add a short if it can break 82.00.
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Apr 19, 2010 9:25am
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Sold C/J again and sold Gold.
CJ @ 90.45 SL @ 90.67
Gold @ 1132.08 SL@1134.15
1% on both.
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Apr 19, 2010 9:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ignore the 1H and look at the Daily.
Just My opinion.
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I like your opinion |
Apr 19, 2010 9:42am
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Yeah just saw that...price has been a bit indecisive all morning USD strength at first then weakness then strength and now weakness again as US markets open.
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Apr 19, 2010 9:44am
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moved EG SL down to just above PPZ...could have added another sell there really. SL @ 0.8809
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Apr 19, 2010 10:20am
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Really should have just taken the touch trades this morning on EJ, GJ, Oil, Uc, G/CHf and EG...would have all beed very profitable.
Got stopped out again on CJ (done with this now), stopped out on gold too.
Gone long E/J based on a bounce from the daily confluence on fibs, TL and PPZ. Short UC -big rejection off PPz and round number (one of the touch trades should have done) and formed a proxy pin.
Risk appetite seems to be back on as Dow is up for the day.
Long EJ @ 123.94 SL @ 123.10 - 1%
Short U/C @ 1.0170 SL @ 1.0205 - 1%
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Apr 19, 2010 10:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
See if this Head & Shoulder works.
.
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Well spotted...is that a Dow mini futures chart?
Will add it to my watchlist.
Very quick rebound from that 1100 area |
Apr 19, 2010 10:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
So how it plunged after i posted the chart.
All I need to do is to post a chart and.............. 
Btw i only use futures chart for dow.
. |
Yeah I watched it go in real time...and it's not stopping yet. |
Apr 19, 2010 10:41am
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Out of UC @ BE...not convinced by current price action...extremely choppy today...think today is probably my worse day since start of journal...if only I'd just been more aggresive and taken the touch trades...putting it down to being ill lol.
E/G is going nicely...but again should have put another short on the retrace to PPZ. EJ is only other trade on the go. On the sidelines until get some clearer price action now...off to bed now... got alert set for EG if it hits 8890
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Apr 19, 2010 11:50am
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EG hit SL @ 0.8809..EJ still open.
Second half of oil short stopped out @ BE+1 earlier.
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Apr 19, 2010 4:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Breakout of TL.
Retest of TL
Pin Bar forming
Busy area buy the way.
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Where is that TL extended from cant see it on my charts?
Pretty cr*p day today for me...have no idea why I didnt take the touch trades earlier in the day would have been a very good profit now.
I'm out off all trades now and gonna wait until tomorrow until I look at my charts again, been ill all day and not in the mood to trade. |
Apr 19, 2010 4:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
the chopiness on all the pairs...
This would have been the perfect trade for the day. PPZ, nice pin (a bit small), divergence. Nice RR.
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Yes that would have been nice...takes guts to take a pin bar on the 5min timeframe...what pair is that...dont recognise it?
Playing touch trades with tight SL's @ the following levels would have been very profitable...really dont know why I hesitated and didnt play these
EJ long @ 123.30 PPZ with fib and TL confluence
GJ long @ 139.60 PPZ with 50 fib and TL confluence
EG short @ 8840 PPZ
GCHf long @ 1.6210 PPZ
Oil long @ 82.00 PPZ with T: and fib confluence
UC short @ 1.0200 |
Apr 19, 2010 4:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
TL coming from last swing high.
Forget it it did not work and I fortunately did not take the trade,
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Ok.
Looks like GS has all be forgotten and the latter part of last week was just a mild pullback to the underlying 4HR trend on most xxx/jpy and xxx/USD pairs. Plenty of 'event' news out tomorrow...will wipe my mind clean of the missed opportunites today and star again tomorrow. Noticed some interesting areas on the non-intraday pairs earlier...will post tomorrow morning. |
Apr 20, 2010 3:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Get ready guyz,
and keep an eye on gold for 1144.
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Slight concern with the strength of the down move on E/A...worth a small risk on a touch trade though I reckon
Defintiely liking Gold... |
Apr 20, 2010 3:56am
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Right...I've put yesterday behind me had a long sleep and am ready and rejuvinated for today.
Hopefully, if anything, people reading this thread can see how relatviely easy it is to make decent gains through this style of trading. I mean at various points during the day I had longs on EJ, GJ and shorts on UC and EG...look where they are now this morning. As also metnioned yesterday there were good touch trade opportunities on these and other pairs like Oil too.
It's all quite simple really...it's just applying it and managing the trades correctly that can be quite difficult at times (i.e. how much space to give) etc and I did that particularly poorly yesterday...closed GJ, EJ, UC way too early...even closed my best trade of the day - EG too early - we had a 4HR bEOB after my 1HR BEOB so should have not moved SL too closed...etc etc etc.
If playing yesterday well you could be sitting on 50% gains easily I reckon all using what is considered normal money management i.e. 1-3% risk per trade etc.
Anyway, enough dwelling on the past.
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Apr 20, 2010 4:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Guys i wanna share a indicator i founded in some thread it is great for finding good area's of confluence. Dont use the indy itself it is just a idea
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lol..what is this...just loaded it. What does it use to predict the future price? |
Apr 20, 2010 4:34am
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Sold GU and Sold EG
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Apr 20, 2010 4:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
if gold goes down EA won't stay. .
Actually I am long EG_EA_EC and short Uj.. |
Yep I understand your thinking...and if AU was @ 0.9325 when gold was @ 1445 that would be good too.
I'm waiting for 93.00 fopr UJ short.
I'm going with the trend on EG although I'm short GU too hmmm maybe I need to rethink that one!! |
Apr 20, 2010 4:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
hi,lovejoy80, you sold GU too, where is your entry and stoploss points,please?
jeurre
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1.5387 SL @ 1.5417 - 2%
0.8756 SL@ 88.05 2%
EG short does not make sense if I'm shorting GU really... |
Apr 20, 2010 4:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Short E/CAD 1.3630 BEOB H1 Target 1.355
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I dont have the BEOB...I'd be careful on this one - just my opinion but you have a rising TL, PPZ and fib confluence... |
Apr 20, 2010 4:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
GU stop 1.5417 , it barely missed a couple of points to hit, lucky trade !
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I placed the trade on the way back down after the news spike...i.e. SL was placed above that high was formed...only difference in our setups was you were looking at 1HR and I was looking at 4HR from what I can see. |
Apr 20, 2010 5:03am
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Some pending orders...
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Apr 20, 2010 5:07am
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Went long E/A...thanks to Nasir for pointing this out asI dont normally follow this pair intraday...but will add it to my list as it's worht having this pair...I've done a few trades on this pair in the past quite succesfully.
Long @ 1.4487, SL@ 1.4450 - 1%
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Apr 20, 2010 5:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Pending order short E/U 1.35 Daily TL. Mr. Jackson style.
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I dont see a TL hitting this area?
I see EU trading sideways between 13680 and 13280 with the best PPZ in between @ 13550 and 13410.
The only daily TL I can see hasnt been meet yet.
Also on the daily we have a series of 3 HH and 3HL's
Just my opinion of course |
Apr 20, 2010 5:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
not sure if this one will work out nicely, maybe a bit earlier to enter?
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I dont trade this pair...but here is what my chart would look like.
I dont like that TL and would prefer a falling trendline or a round number as further confluence...i.e. as much confluence as possible in order to take this....not to say it might still work out but for the really good touch trades you need as mcuh confluence as possible...personally I like TL, fibs and clear PPZ if we havea round number and divergence then that would be superb! But I like PPZ and fibs as an absolute minimum but more comfortable if round number or TL is there too. |
Apr 20, 2010 5:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Start with Dec 04 to draw it down. This is how he does it.
I should not mention it LOL
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where is second connecting point 14th April?
The TL that was valid until broken was December - Jan - March highs i.e. a TL with three valid touches and rejections...moving the TL to touch the April high is curve fitting IMO and it only has 2 touches.
Personally I would not give much weight to the TL and as I mentioned there is no clear trend on the daily it is trading sideways and if anything has an upward bias.
I'm familiar with Jacko and have been a member of his private group...in fact I still think I am but just dont follow him anymore and personally think there are better ways of playing a trend. That's not a critiscism as I respect the guy, he is a succesful trader, manages his own fund and fundamentally knows what he's talking about.
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Apr 20, 2010 5:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
cool,lovejoy80. just a bit more understanding, is it correct to see the trade direction synchronize the trendline slope? I mean, if short, then a falling TL, long with rising TL?
jeurre
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Yeah...just like the GU trade setup and look at the E/A setup Nasir posted earlier this morning.
Where a falling TL meets a clear PPZ area with 50/61 fib confluence this is one of the setups I like (learned from Nasir and Rac). If you can have the PPz on BRN and have divergence too then this would be a great setup.
Also look at other correlating pairs e.g. Oil for CAD, Gold for AUD and Dow for JPY to give us clues i.e. when things are all alligned... |
Apr 20, 2010 5:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
it seems breakout trades make more sense to me. retrace play is still my weak area so far, had a series of 3 loss in a raw trading retrace today
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Looks good ... why play EU and U/CHF though? They are heavily correlated so just play 1 and increase risk? |
Apr 20, 2010 5:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yeah...just like the GU trade setup and look at the E/A setup Nasir posted earlier this morning.
Where a falling TL meets a clear PPZ area with 50/61 fib confluence this is one of the setups I like (learned from Nasir and Rac). If you can have the PPz on BRN and have divergence too then this would be a great setup.
Also look at other correlating pairs e.g. Oil for CAD, Gold for AUD and Dow for JPY to give us clues i.e. when things are all alligned...
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Here is another chart as an example from yesterday of a good touch trade setup
Confluence of TL, daily PPZ and in between 50/61 fibs...
I didnt take it but definitely should have. |
Apr 20, 2010 5:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Yes it is some future price indicator but it can show you areas of confluence. SO dont use the indy for trades. It is more for people who find it a bit harder to spot them right away who need to learn more. And cant spot them right away( Like a bit myself now )
Oke here is a example ho to use it
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Ahh I didnt have the PPZ on my chart just the future price dots...will have a play with it later. |
Apr 20, 2010 6:00am
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Out of GU short @ BE.
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Apr 20, 2010 7:04am
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84.30 looks better...might hold it for a bit...85 would be a better setup - more confluence
Looking for a rejection of 92 on CJ and 1.0086 on UC ... if this lines up when Oil @ resistance then a definite good setup.
Gold, AU, UJ all near pending shorts. Will add to EA long if gets above 1.4530
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Apr 20, 2010 7:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
.
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I wanted to short this earlier...but missed it on the news spike |
Apr 20, 2010 7:08am
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...
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Apr 20, 2010 7:21am
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Another go on GU short...
Pending orders on CJ, Gold and AU missed by few pips...hope they come back!
short @ 1.5396 SL@ 1.5435 1%
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Apr 20, 2010 7:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Looking for help is great, but you shouldn't base your decisions on others. (as in exiting the oil short just now).
I'm not experienced in this kind of trading, so you shouldn't take my calls. I'm just saying my point of view, but if you did your homework (right (as in correct)) then you should trust your decision.
As you can see, LJ saw an entry at 84.30, coinciding to the pip (almost) to where this local high is right now. I can't really see why, but he's better at spotting confluence area than I am.
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Arrows mark where this area has been has acted as support previously.
Entered 0.5% short @84.20 and 0.5% @ 83.94 SL @ 84.50 |
Apr 20, 2010 7:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
are you going to short this one, nasir?
jeurre
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Here is my view... |
Apr 20, 2010 7:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Haha.
U are never too late for a trade, there is always an another chance. But you could be too much early in a trade and that's the start of the capital destruction.
anyways just went short GJ.
.
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Very true.
Nice one on GJ...
1HR BEOB's forming on AU, Gold and the GJ looks like forming a DBHLC |
Apr 20, 2010 7:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
And another thing. If you are new to this game you should really try and stick for a few months to J16 rules. Learning to be patient will definitely improve your odds of making it in the long term.
Enough talking, it's LJ's journal.
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couple good posts.
Don't mind me when posting...even though the title is my journal...I don't mind people posting, in fact I encourage it...if it turns into a thread with people that like to trade in the same way that I do then all the better.
Trading can be a lonely business and I like interaction with like minded people...and FF is a great place to learn form others, help others and share experiences.
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Apr 20, 2010 8:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
forgive my ignorance, I know i should know this, but what exactly does the acronym PPZ stand for? ive searched the site and google and wikipedia and the suspense is killing me. I used to think it was refering to pivot points until I was informed that lovejoy80 does not use pivots.
pretty sure one of the P's is price and the Z is for zone. previous price zone? price protection zone?
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Price Pivot Zone...it is a term used in J16 thread...meaning a zone which has acted as both support and resistance in the past
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Apr 20, 2010 8:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
cool
regarding the way you draw ........... trendline, it seems a bit ...... subjective, if you don't mind I say so ???? .......... I knew you are quite good at spot the setup using trendline, the thing is how to copy your success if I don't understand your way of drawing TL, what concerns me is the part that you ignor to some extent the wick in between two touches. I can draw them in similar manner to yours, but, I wonder I may be suspectable to curve fit if I do it the same way.
in any case, I have to reckon you are the king,... |
Lol...course I dont mind. TL's are subject IMO much in the same way that a PPZ is a zone and is not always to the pip.
I try to draw a TL connecting highs or lows...but the main focus is to catch the main trend of price it doesnt need to be exact and the longer the TL is drawn over the less exact it will be.
I don't give as much emphasis on a TL as I do on horizontal PPZ...I would take a trade based on PPZ alone but would rarely take trade based on a TL alone - unless it was a very strong / clear TL.
Probably not the the clearest answer for you...but dont get hung up on trying to draw TL to the exact pip it's just an area where we can expect price to react like a PPZ.
Lol - I am no king! There are far better traders on FF and on this thread too...I have many weaknesses and am still learning...but I'm at the stage where I can consistently make money so I suppose that is in the few% of traders out there.
I'm sure you can see that the methods are not that difficult but it's all about practice (demo - or very small real money using Oanda) and chart time...the more you practice the better you get and the more confidence you have - confidence is key...being able to move from trade to trade without the previous one affecting you cos you know (through practice) that over the course of a week, month etc your net account will be showing decent growth |
Apr 20, 2010 8:53am
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EA long on touch of PPZ 1.4473 SL @ 1.4450, though will cut quickly if breaks through - 1%
EJ short @ 125.25 SL@ 125.65 -1%
GJ @ 124.91 SL@ 143.25
GU added another short (bit aggressive) @ 1.5377 SL@ 1.5415 - 1%
Cut Oil trades @ BE.
4HR pin bar(10mins to go) on dow futures...
CAD news in 10 mins...mentioned areas on UC and CJ I'm watching earlier
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Apr 20, 2010 9:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I dont't understand why i am so much bullish on Euro today. 
. |
That can be the difficulty I find with touch trades which are counter trend i.e. high percentage of the time they will bounce and go for 10-30 pips but only a smaller % will turn into a runner the others will bounce of the PPZ pause, collect more buyers/ sellers in the direction of the trend and push back towards the confluence again. Knowing when to take profit or let it run is the hardest part that I find...I'm gonna start taking profit at first trouble area and let other hald run I reckon, that way account keeps ticking over whilst you look for the runner where you can further positions in and make the big killing.
EA hit first trouble area and reversed i.e. new sellers came back in - if you were on the other side i.e. playing the trend you'd be selling on a pullback to that first trouble area. |
Apr 20, 2010 9:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Closed 1.355 reached PPZ, Gap and TL
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Nice...traded your plan well. |
Apr 20, 2010 9:13am
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Why does price really try and rub it in when you make an error...I was on the 1HR pin on UC yesterday short...but closed out early as had had enough for the day...lol
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Apr 20, 2010 9:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
why I didn't notice this one ??
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Dont follow this pair...but look how choppy this pair is...the only time you miss a setup and it drops like stone. |
Apr 20, 2010 9:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Not to pour salt on the wound, but why didn't you enter on the daily PB?
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I was asleep when markets closed last night and thus didnt follow my usual routine of chekcing them @ 10pm GMT...woke up late this moring and completely forgot to check them...doh |
Apr 20, 2010 9:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EA long on touch of PPZ 1.4473 SL @ 1.4450, though will cut quickly if breaks through - 1%
EJ short @ 125.25 SL@ 125.65 -1%
GJ @ 124.91 SL@ 143.25
GU added another short (bit aggressive) @ 1.5377 SL@ 1.5415 - 1%
Cut Oil trades @ BE.
4HR pin bar(10mins to go) on dow futures...
CAD news in 10 mins...mentioned areas on UC and CJ I'm watching earlier
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Apr 20, 2010 9:23am
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On the plus side GU is dropping nicely...AU trade now in play as is UJ and gold.
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Apr 20, 2010 9:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Done.
Take it easy LJ, you know that's not the way. Let them go, learn from them but don't get mad.
That 300+% gain in 2 weeks says that you're on the right path. Don't spoil it by getting nervous about missed or past trades.
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Yeah I know...I'm only kinda kidding with that...I've learnt the hard way that if you let the market get to you then taking emotinally driven revenge trades leads to a blown account.
Thanks for the indicator |
Apr 20, 2010 9:35am
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You'd need guts to take this touch trade...bounced off weekly PPZ...but no way would I take a touch off this following that drop
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Apr 20, 2010 9:44am
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Exited half of GU shorts @ 1.5344 and moved SL on remaing hald to first trade entry.
E/A longs all exited @ 1.4462
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Apr 20, 2010 9:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I do not understand that drop. Oil had a spike down and Cad news were; No news. May be: No news, good news
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It was CAD news...interest rate annoucement which they kept @ 0.25 % but more importantly they said that they will remove monetary stimulus and that economic growth and inflation is above earlier projections and they dropped thier pledge to leave interest rates steady until july.
Thus stronger CAD as a higher probability of hihger interest rates in the near future than previous.
I use this for news releases etc.
http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/ |
Apr 20, 2010 10:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Take it easy you are still the chart's magician. LOL
Have to say when you two guys opened those longs against Cad and Aud, I was terrified. I stick to my plan because Oil and Gold were still raising
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Unfortunately we cant corner the market like Jesse was able to.
yeah plenty of counter trend trades today as missed the trends yesterday...Ct trades can really burn you at times.
JPY is looking weak today...look @ UJ.
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Apr 20, 2010 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
I will stay out now for the rest of the day looks like whe getting choppy crude stocks just opened and dow so i let oil for what it is for now look later for new setup i have 1 short open stop loss 10 pips profit rest was closed at touch 61.8 and ppz
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Well played. |
Apr 20, 2010 10:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Me too
lost all my credibility on this one today.
it was bad day today.
. |
Yeah another so-so day...lots of small losses for me...hopefully this week will pan out like last week and we'll get some runners towards the end of the week...I'd much rather play the trend anyday (peaks and valley style).
No credibility lost my friend...the setups were there just didnt work out, though we will look silly going against the trend to some people. |
Apr 20, 2010 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
True but I like to wait till 94 / 94.5 that would be perfect. I already put an alert on it
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What's wrong with 93.60 ... |
Apr 20, 2010 10:21am
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Right, Gold tried to scare me by going lower than soaring higher up to 1145.56, but if that area hold then I'll add a short @1139.90 area...this will also pull my AU short down and I've just gone short on AJ too.
Pending order short on GU.
Gone short EU @ 1.3460 SL@1.3605
AJ@86.66 SL @ 86390 - 1%
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Apr 20, 2010 10:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok this post goes to all the new guy's in this thread.
First of all i did't invented anything i learnt all of this touch trading techniques from Raczekfx post's at J16 thread. and i learned (still learning) it all by reading his posts (no PMs).... |
Remember folks that this is a business and there is no shortcut to success. You can only learn to trade succesfully by learning and practising to death fuirst so it is so ingrained in you.
When you think you are ready to trade , my personal recommendation is to opan an Oanda account as you can trade in individual units i.e. as little as 1unit (i.e. 1 micro lot is 1000 units) so you also get the feel of risking real money and the emotions that come with it compared to Demo.
I'll also add, after reading Racs posts ( you will not understnad them straight off...he is quite cryptic at times and I was banging my head against the wall at times trying to understand them!) read Nasir's too.
Nasir I know you are still learning but I definitely learned a good chunk by reading your posts and going through your charts too.
It's taken me 2 years to get where I am now...I doubled my account in the first 6...but I then went and lost my whole account in the next 6months...then I wnet away and learned, practised for the next 6-9 months. |
Apr 20, 2010 11:13am
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Could get past first trouble area unfortunately...wont be taking undue losses on my xxx/jpy and xxx/USd shorts now.
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Apr 20, 2010 11:47am
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Second gold trade triggered @ 1139.40 SL @ 1144 1%
Will take some profit on EU short @ 1.3418
Looking for EG to break 0.8741, will add position if it does.
Potential for a touch trade on CJ @ 93.70...though strong move up obviously on this pair. Oil not really moving though.
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Apr 20, 2010 12:35pm
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Stopped out on UJ, GJ, AJ...need a reversal in dow for decent shorts...looking at weekly chart there is a strong resistance are on dow between 11135 - 11260...obviously this is a large zone though to pick a reversal lol.
Next area of major interest for me on GJ would be nearer 145 area...until then not looking for shorts only longs with the trend (obviously if i'd stuck with my longs yesterday - I picked the reversal remember I wouldnt even be looking for shorts hmmm).
Dow futures stuggling to get above downward 4HR TL.
EG - short pending order @ 0.8738
Gold holding steady but AJ and AU both going up again.
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Apr 20, 2010 12:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Aggressive target for E/U 1.330
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That would be nice...though 13280 would be even better |
Apr 20, 2010 12:50pm
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added pending short if it can break PPZ
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Apr 20, 2010 2:19pm
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Some thoughts on my EUR / AUD trade earlier...
My emphasis is on the fact that EA is in a very big down trend...other pairs like xxx/jpy which are more rangy are better for reversals.
Also the best reversals are when we have major PPZ areas on daily / weekly timeframes with other confluence like fibs, TL's, BRN as mentioned previously - these are the real good ones to take for reversals.
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Apr 20, 2010 2:26pm
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Another 'simple' breakout opportunity.
Also reason I didnt take a touch trade on this was because of how price was quickly rejected previously then abruptly halted.
This area was rejected hard earlier today (1.6390) but then met a brick wall @ the 1.6344 PPZ...the last 4 times the upper PPZ was rejected the PPZ @ 1.6344 was also rejected this time it held despite price moving very quickly down from the upper PPZ...this told me that despite the strong move by sellers (the strongest rejection yet of this area) it met more and more buyers than previously as it couldnt break the 1.6344 area this time and started to retrace...from this I deduced that there is a much higher volume of buyers than when price has previously approached the 1.6390 area and thus there was a much higher probability than in previous occasions that this PPZ would be broken.
Indeed it was and we had a breakout, retrace and off back up again.
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Apr 20, 2010 2:33pm
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Let's see if US afternoon can give some momentum to my trades (in the right direction!) ..taken another UJ short...moved my TL to exact bar highs ( ), small PN on TL and minor PPZ ..short @ 93.27 SL @93.40 - 1% |
Apr 20, 2010 3:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
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Thanks for posting this...just watched it...never used fib extensions before, interesting. |
Apr 20, 2010 4:40pm
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Exited UJ short @ 93.14 - hit 1HR PPZ
Was a very slow afternoon US session.
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Apr 20, 2010 5:56pm
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Some stats...
In first trading week (split over two weeks but 5 trading days) made 110.57% increase in account. Last week increased account by 94.62% over end of week1. Only had two losing days ...er today and yesterday lost 0.20% today and 2.89% yesterday...
Trades update:
EG pending order triggered @ 0.8739 SL on both moved to 0.8756 - 1% on second trade...hopefully it'll go on and hit 0.8700 PPZ area now.
Closed gold @ 1138.00
AU - stil in play SL moved down to 0.9335
EU - still in play
EJ - still in play
GU - remaining half still in play |
Apr 20, 2010 7:23pm
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Some more trades...must go to bed now...will update in the morning with details
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Apr 21, 2010 1:42am
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Hmmmm was expecting to wake up to see xxx/jpy falling further down as looked hevy last night, but the retracement was small and now they are back up again...GBP looking strong too for some reason...unemployment data released this morning.
Stopped out on GU, GJ...AU, EU,EJ and UJ remain in play.
Moved SL on EG down to 0.8750 - targeting 0.8705 for TP.
Nothing else to note for me at the moment...on the sidelines.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 21, 2010 2:04am
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Apr 21, 2010 2:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Hmmmm was expecting to wake up to see xxx/jpy falling further down as looked hevy last night, but the retracement was small and now they are back up again...GBP looking strong too for some reason...unemployment data released this morning.
Stopped out on GU, GJ...AU, EU,EJ and UJ remain in play.
Moved SL on EG down to 0.8750 - targeting 0.8705 for TP.
Nothing else to note for me at the moment...on the sidelines.
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Exited EU @ 1.3437 - BUOB on 1 HR and USD and JPY look very weak...this is hurting. |
Apr 21, 2010 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
There are some PV trades on YEN's.
.
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Have you played the trends from Monday on these PV style?
Having a good week? |
Apr 21, 2010 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Another thought LJ,
When this Journal was started and i started posting here i was in kind of a free-fun mode cause i knew you know whats stuff i am throwing in my charts and i never do any comments like why i am taking this trade, what are the next trouble area's etc. I thought it was just a party of 2. lol
But now more and more people are coming in so i'll try to be more specific. (i am not promising any thing cause i don't like typing much)
. |
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Apr 21, 2010 2:56am
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Feeling angry and frustrated with my performance this week...was in nice profit last night on the shorts and to wake up this morning to suffer losses was tough especially after two losing days in a row...
Played far too many counter trend trades - trying to pick reversals too much, all because I missed catching the trends on monday on xxx/jpy.
Just re-read all my posts in this journal and my trades to remind myself how I made over 300% cos at the moment I've lost the mojo lol! The majority of my trades have been either a) playing breakouts in the direction of the trend and then adding at further breaks of highs/lows i.e. peaks and valley style (although I haven't caught a whole trend yet) on 4H or 1H time frame and b) picking reversals from MAJOR daily PPZ areas with confluence.
They represent the two trading styles that have got my account to where it is.
It's no coincidence that my best trade this week is E/G which is a breakout of lows with the trend trade.
Need to be more picky with counter-trend reversals..only take the really confluenced setups or risk less on these. Last nights trades have damaged my account (I haven't looked at the % loss etc) and I'm keen to turn this week around - however in situations of frustration due to losses you need to make sure your mindset is clear and free of emotions otherwise you get too keen to trade to make up losses i.e. revenge trades and thus become less picky and take shotgun trades...I've been through the learning curve and know that I'm not in the right mindset at the moment.
Gonna print some of my best (and most simple trades) off and pin them on my wall together with some basic reminders (the two types of trades and conditions mentioned above) as feel got less picky this week and my account has suffered. gonna go gym to let the frustration out...come back with a clear mind and full of confidence again.
EDIT: I've also cleared all my intraday charts so I can mark PPZ areas again etc.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 21, 2010 3:11am
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Apr 21, 2010 3:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Nop i am all messed up this week in CT's.
First i missed the touch trades. Then i changed my mind at the last moment and missed first PV trades too.
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Very similiar story to me...I have no idea why I didnt take the touch trades...normally I'd be all over them but for some reason as it was a Monday I wasn't fussed...very bewildering. If I'd taken them and held them then this week would have been very different so far as I'd just be playing the trends...would have been very dull...just how trading should be lol.
I find being hesitant is always a bad thing...it affects me badly when I try to think or analyse a particular setup too much...whereas if I go on automatic mode then I feel my inner confidence is taking over and doing what I know works.
Anyway enough dwelling.
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Apr 21, 2010 4:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
GBP is at important R&S against all main pairs: CAD, CHF, JPY, USD.
In 1 Hr will know.
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On GU and GJ the big PPZ areas are above .... 145 for GJ and 1.5220 - 70 on GU.
HH and HL on GU daily but @ 4HR resistance....until we break the PPZ mentioned above this pair is still ranging for me.
GJ is in an upward trend but has been consolidating near in a range near 145.
I'll take a proven break above these areas (gotta be carefull about false breakouts due to news spikes) andwill enter small sell positions on a touch.
I would be looking to sell (small position) if we got near these daily range highs or buy a breakout.
GU current 4HR setup is confluenced but there has been no real rejection...I look for strong rejection of a PPZ ...themore it hangs around it the more likely it will break it. I've payed GU short a few times this week and it's neer followed through. |
Apr 21, 2010 4:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Thinking of shorting AUD/xxx. May be Aud/Jpy or AUD/Usd.
Any thoughts?
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I'd prefer nearer the range highs i.e. >87.20 area for a short personally. Not much space though as PPZ's below. Breakout coming at some point...I'll play the breakout.
If taking swing trades then you'd need SL above the highs i.e. on AU above .9410 alternatively ican play the 9325 PPZ and TL confluence - agin I've played that area this week and been no follow through i.e. any dips and buyers are coming in with the trend.
Gold is struggling to get bove PPZ though. |
Apr 21, 2010 4:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
If GU hits 410 again, 500 is next. imo
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I'm with you on these...until we get to the daily PPZ areas the trend is clearly up on GU and GJ...also bought GCHF on pullback to PPZ
I'm much more confident on these trend trades...all attempts to short GBP at intra day PPZ has failed this week...no follow through so plenty of buyers coming in on dips. |
Apr 21, 2010 4:59am
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EG - added another short on pullback to PPZ short @ 0.8739. SL @ 0.8750 - 1% (3 positions open on this pair now)
Approaching 0.8700 PPZ...will take profit here...might leave some on the table but strong PPZ and TL below too so will take a lot to break these IMO.
Long GU and GJ...as per Nasir analysis, just playing breaks of peaks / resistance in direction of the trend.
Long G/CHF earlier ...though spread was really poor (this was prior to news so not sure why poor spread)
G/CHF @ 1.6415 SL @ 1.6394 - 1%
GJ @ 143.66 and 143.60 SL@ 142.58 - 1% in total
GU @ 1.5405 SL@ 1.5377 - 1%
I have notice the time I play long a xxx/JPy pair dow futures are down hmmm...oh well playing what I see...dont over analyse things Mark lol |
Apr 21, 2010 5:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
No gym?
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yeah....I have my own gym in the garage so taken my netbook outside and posting between sets lol. |
Apr 21, 2010 5:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Get ready guys.
Which way???
Not sure as yet.
But just get ready cause price always tips you before the next move.
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Go south....Nasir get your orders in I need some momentum to get through those PPZ. lol |
Apr 21, 2010 5:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
You'r having the time of your life.
I mean no Job, Trading from home, Gym etc. MAN. 
So just be careful and Don't screw up ok!!!!!!!!!
Cause you have no idea how much difficult it is to trade in the office.
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Yeah..but I wish the no job part was because I'd made so much cash trading I could afford to trade from home full time...but this is my chance, I have enough income from nsurance to cover all bills etc plus savings for the next 6 months (obviously looking for a job but my field is M&A insurance... which is relatively dead compared to the boom years of 06-07) so using the small cash I have spare to trade nad build my account...if I can build it to a decent level in 6months I'll trade full time...so the next 6 months are make it or break it essentially  Only myself can stop me achieving my goals.
I can imagine...I couldnt even access my trading platforms at my previous work cos of firewalls etc. Had to trade on Oanda on my blackberry (slloooowwww connection) and use the free charts @ dailyfx.com lol. |
Apr 21, 2010 5:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Right... I have to drive 3 miles to my gym... You lucky bastar*.
But I have a pool there. I guess you don't have one in the garage, do you?  |
I find it harder work motivating myself to go to the garage than I ever did going to a local gym...but then I used to go at lunch during work so I guess the motivation was to get out of the office and away from work lol.
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Apr 21, 2010 6:10am
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Welcome Trigger,
nice to see you here...learnt a lot from reading your posts...you're very good at analysing the markets and looking at the overall picture
Feel free to post here when you get some time. |
Apr 21, 2010 6:19am
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An obvious target for G/CHF longs is 1.6500 area...1.5520 for GU and 145 for GJ
Dow futures further down...
In terms of interesting areas I'm watching.
Oil - 85 but stuggling to break 84.33 PPZ
UJ - 93.60 (though will buy 1H highs)
AJ > 87.20
EJ - not moving much @ a PPZ already but 125.77 is the next area
C/J - is @ 94.00 and near highs
Gold - break above 1145.57 and I'll be in with a buy...been hovering around here for a while causing AU to be pretty static too.
With dow futures down could lead to strong JPY this afternoon...
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Apr 21, 2010 6:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Another CT.
i think it could hit 435 and even maybe 500.
Lets see.
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I'm looking at this too...scrolling down timeframes I'm buying above the 15min PPz @ 1.3367 |
Apr 21, 2010 6:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
37 Pages!!!!!
Man, your thread is traveling fast LJ.
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Yeah I know...when I was reading through it earlier I was surprised at how many pages there were.
Liking how this thread is developing...a collection og helpful good people. |
Apr 21, 2010 6:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Apr 21, 2010 6:53am
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Gold cant get past it's PPZ...dow futures down over 50points...thus shorting AU whichi is @ aTL and PPz on 4h / 1H chart. Scrolled down and took a breakout on 15min timeframe. Short @ 0.9315 SL @ 0.9335 - 1%
GJ and GU longs not looking too healthy now hmmmm
Pending short on EU on break of lows @ 1.3395
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Apr 21, 2010 6:54am
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EU short @ 1.3395 SL@ 1.3447 - 1%
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Apr 21, 2010 7:34am
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Short on EU triggered SL@ 1.3447 - 1%...
EG shorts triggered @ 0.8704 and 8695 about to be triggered...1% on each and all SL moved to 8720. When you're in the trend relatively early (missed the tuoch trade though) it's easy to add further positions and as you have locked in profit along the way you can get quite aggresive with your risk sizes too...not quite doing that yet.
AU - SL moved to BE and added on break of lows @ 0.9293 SL @ 0.9315 - 1%
Closed GJ @ 143.06 - broken TL and support...that the trouble when your late in the trend always a chance of getting stopped out and costing you...if I'd stuck with my entry from monday and added along the way this loss would be nothing compard to the locked in profit.
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Apr 21, 2010 7:47am
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Taken profit on G/CHF trades @ 1.6495
Moved SL on EG to to 0.8710
Missed CJ touch trade @ BRN and PPZ...plus with Oil @ resistance this would have been nice.
EU could stall soon looking @ USDCHF
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Apr 21, 2010 8:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Sorry LJ.
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I thought we were friends lol
I'd literally closed all my shorts ...the spike up from the TL must have been your orders!
Gotta disappear for 30mins and didnt fancy leaving the EG trade so closed them all out @ 0.8692...quite probably we'll get a bounce |
Apr 21, 2010 9:28am
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Shorting GJ, GU and AJ (Still have AU and EU shorts in play).
All setups have price action ner PPZ with divergence and with dow futures looking weak...
Not going to write out entries and SL levels from now on...just post charts with explanations with entry and SL on.
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Apr 21, 2010 9:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Pray LJ Pray.
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I am trust me...couldnt believe that 1HR bar...that resistance wants to hold if it knows whats good for it! |
Apr 21, 2010 10:02am
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Fall like a stone...fall like a stone... |
Apr 21, 2010 10:08am
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Added to GJ,AJ,AU,GU shorts when dow futures hit resistance and reversed...with very tight SL...
No charts as entered all on oanda...tighter spreads.
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Apr 21, 2010 10:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Well prayed LJ.
But i don't like 1h-4h close.
We may get our A$$ handed yet again today.
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Yeah I think it is merely delaying the inevitable...there really is nothing stopping the dow at the moment...it has retraced all off last Friday's drop...very strong buyers at the moment. I reckon the reaction down will be short lived and it will pick up more buyers and soar through...I'm gonna put pending orders on some xxx/jpy to go long if it does...I reckon if it breaks above 11000 it will soar up quite quickly dragging xxx/jpy with it.
E/G and G/CHF has saved me today so far...trend trades getting me out of my CT mess.
When I was shorting AU,GJ,GU and AU part of me was screaming 'what are you doing the trend is up' lol... |
Apr 21, 2010 10:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
You need to take a Breath LJ.
You'r rushing to much.
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Yeah I know 
Well that nice little Dow scare meant I got better entries to add to my AJ,GJ,GU shorts |
Apr 21, 2010 10:43am
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double bottom (look @ 4HR) and divergence...I wanted to wait for a break of the consolidation.
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Apr 21, 2010 10:49am
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winding up for a breakout I reckon...sellers rejected the PPZ but cant push it further down with the trend...each time it approaches the PPZ it will get stronger and stronger and buyers will overcome the sellers...well thats how I look at situations like this...
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Apr 21, 2010 11:42am
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Summary of current trades...
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Apr 21, 2010 11:42am
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...
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Apr 21, 2010 11:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
I spotted this head and shoulder in a strong uptrend neckline in confluence with trendline
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Is that FTSE futures?
Well spotted...I'm rubbish at spotting these patterns and playing them. |
Apr 21, 2010 11:56am
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Not keen on holding my shorts for too long unless dow futures can break the first PPZ level...if we can break both levesl marked these should turn into runners....if it cant I'll be banking what profit I can.
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Apr 21, 2010 12:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Unfortunately they were not triggered it was more than 20 pairs.
I really do not understand it, first time happened.
I now save the profile in MT4 and see what it will be tomorrow
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I've never had this happen to me and ant think what could cause it. From my experience MT4 is quiter unstable at times and if your MT4 gets shut down suddenly e.g. your computer crashes then thing slike this could get deleted. I've had my templates and prfile deleted randomly at times...always back them up now. |
Apr 21, 2010 1:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I agree MT4 is really unstable. I like it because it is user friendly but I do not like when I lose all my work and that happened a few times.
I think Tradestation is one of the best especially as far as charting is concerned. I used tradestation in the past and I think is great. It is the same that Mike and James are using, I believe with MB Trading.
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I've never used tradestation...dont you have to pay for it?
I used to use purely Oanda and it's own charts...so MT4 was great compared to this |
Apr 21, 2010 1:21pm
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Probably going to curse my trades...but feeling good about my shorts...just need dow to oblige now and they'll drop like a stone.
We had price action with divergence and most pairs are at PPZ (and round nubmer in some cases) which is also near swing highs (particularly for AJ and AU) thus path of least resistance is down.
Gold had a breakout but AU still going down....hmmm could be a false breakout on gold then.
Added another UC long on retracement back to PPZ, Another EJ short @ round number.
Looking for 1.4500 on EUR/AUD as first target. AUD has more room to the downside than EUR in terms of major PPZ
Will update later.
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Apr 21, 2010 2:24pm
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Another quiet US afternoon session...lack of economic news maybe in US.
lots of economic news releases tomorrow and Friday so could get some momentum.
Until we see a decent reversal in dow my main focus is to play shorts near range highs in xxx/jpy and xxx/usd and take profit and play the retrace back up...that seems to be be whats happening in most xxx/jpy pairs at the moment...as soon as we have a decent drop Dow below major PPZ areas we should see a big drop in xxx/jpy and xxx/usd.
A drop below 11,000 would be a nice present.
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Apr 21, 2010 2:37pm
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No sooner that I speak...if this break can hold |
Apr 21, 2010 3:35pm
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Closed AJ, AU, CJ, EJ, GJ, UC positions 20 mins ago.
Still have EU, GU, GJ and EUR/AUD positions open. GBP has been strong with the good unemployment news today.
I'd expect more volatility in the GBP the nearer we get to the general election...if we continue to have close three party contest and the possibility of a hung parliment I'd expect this to have a bearish affect on the GBP.
As I said earlier...want to take bank some profit and wait for a retrace to get in again. I dont feel this will be the start of a big down trend...espeically in Asian markets. Would rather take small profits and wait for the big move that will come when dow falls over 100pips in a day and breaks 11,000.
I've left some pending orders short at break fo various BEOB's that were formed...just in case we do get some moves in Asia.
Turned out to be good day today overall - all the positions above, G/CHF and E/G made some decent gains in the account...EG was worth 10% increase alone.
Went long Gold.
No more trades today...will look @ daily charts later...of to unwind by shooting some peeps on COD
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Apr 21, 2010 3:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyCapital
COD is the SH IT....Nothing like making $ and Team Death Match at the same time...
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It's all about the free for all for me...I'm rubbish at team death match for some reason. |
Apr 21, 2010 4:49pm
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Reviewed daily charts and I see the following that is of interest.
G/U - inside bar @ Round number - wont be up to play this and I'm already short anyway.
C/J - pin bar wiht divergence @ double top on daily...should have seen this coming and kept previous CJ trade open. Pending short entry @ 92.90. The best entry would have been the touch trade @ 94.00 missed this one...again. Will look for retrace entry tomorrow if it doesnt break tonight.
U/C - small pin bar...again I believe I was correct to take profit on xxx/jpy xxx/aud pairs but CAD pairs I should have looked into in more detail before closing - I swear UC is a curse for me...missed so many trades on this pair.
Anway I still have an entry open just above 1.0000 so will stick with this and look to add on a retrace back to 0.9977
As I mentioned...looking to continue to short AU,AJ, CJ near highs, long UC near lows (well looking for signs of retrace whilst watching Oil) and EJ, GJ on retraces back up to PPZ. Dow is @ a wide weekly PPZ area and is definitely showing signs of weakness...plenty of event risk tomorrow and continuing Greece and Euro concerns could weigh on risk appetite...when a fall in the dow comes I'll be there loading up my shorts ready. If we do get some decent moves down then EU could make new yearly lows IMO. If we get any strength on EU from economic news tomorrow morning I'll be loooking to ride the 1HR trend and then load up a short on 4HR timeframe near PPZ...thus my main focus is really counter-trend swing trading whilst playing smaller timeframe trends up to strong PPZ / confluenced areas.
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Apr 22, 2010 1:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Nice analysis Lovejoy,
I spotted this baby on dailly Eur/jpy
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I literally only learned about this pattern two days ago
As traders our learning never ends
Well spotted... |
Apr 22, 2010 2:13am
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Early morning trades / analysis / plan for the day...
- Adding to E/A above the gap.
- Breakout and pullback on UJ
- Dow futures boucing up from 1HR PPZ - expecting a bounce in xxx/jpy this morning...deciding whether to 'scalp' for a bit or wait and sell when they get higher
- GBP/USD still following the 1HR TL and looks the strongest of the major currencies against the USD.
- E/G - broken TL...next stop PPZ below...will be watching...G/CHf also near PPZ again...following the path of least resistance....
- Expect Oil to have a high between 84.30-85 - on the basis these PPZ will be hold I'll be looking to add a CJ short - the closer to 94 the better.
- UC - the weekly PPZ is holding...daily price has not closed below this area yet - have two buys in play with SL below the recent lows...more of a swing trade.
- EU - no change still short below 13400...lots of news this morning will sell any bounces @ PPZ areas
- AJ closed shorts...will short on retracement - still have long gold trade so expect a bounce in AJ and AU this morning.
I am strongly bearish on xxx/jpy and xxx/USD today and tomorrow...I feel the dow will have a decent move over the next two days and my bias is short dragging xxx/jpy in particular with it....I'm watching carefully.
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Apr 22, 2010 2:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
It's also a bear flag. Nice spotted.
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Yep...or the handle of the cup formation...a break below 123.30 = sell sell sell |
Apr 22, 2010 2:22am
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Actually looking @ the dow futures chart...if 11044 holds could that be a kinda (although a bit crappy) H&S pattern?
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Apr 22, 2010 2:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
H&S are mainly reversal patterns.
This one is a reverse H&S (because the head is down). And odds are (being also with the trend) that 11100 will break. If it doesn't break (hard) then chances are we're going down.
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Yeah didnt see that that looks good...though I dont want it play out...this is what I was looking at...
As I mentioned we are seing some retrace i.e. weakening USD and JPY this morning...there could be plenty of chop and whipsaws due to the volume of news releases so I'll be looking to enter positions with wider stop lossses than normal more swing type trades...stop losses above major PPZ and recent daily highs e.g. above 94 on C/J.
I'm looking @ 1.5485 as TL and PPZ confluence on 4HR GU...though we could reach the major PPZ @ 1.5520 - 60 area too
Exited UJ, GU and GJ for small losses
Bought GU and AJ this morning for a few pips and just exited and reversed AJ.
Still short EU, long EA and long gold. |
Apr 22, 2010 2:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yeah didnt see that that looks good...though I dont want it play out...this is what I was looking at...
As I mentioned we are seing some retrace...
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meant to attach charts to last post.
Shorted AJ @ 86.38 SL 10pips -1% risk...a touch trade of 1HR PPZ.
Shorted AJ @ 86.38 SL 86.90 - 2% above a more major PPZ...i.e. looking for a position / swing trade |
Apr 22, 2010 3:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I am not sure if Dow could give a decent hint about Ccy's today.
But i think Gold will have a more significant impact.
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Good point Nasir |
Apr 22, 2010 3:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
That's a bit of a stretch... The segments (each shoulder and head) should be of equal length.
EG is at an interesting level. I'd go out on a limb and buy some near here (with small risk) and wait for a nice PA formation on daily. That would be nice. |
Ok, I understand...though I was puishing it a bit lol...not very good at these types of patterns.
It is indeed and I agree with you on this |
Apr 22, 2010 3:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
What if it retraces to 125 good resistance there and good entry IMO
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Oh yeah...by the time it got to the break level I'd hope I'd have multiple shorts lined up already.
125.30 is better for me |
Apr 22, 2010 3:15am
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As per previous post.
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Apr 22, 2010 3:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I think plunge is coming in Pound.Just waiting for the news to pump it.
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slightly different chart...same result...so much resistance above on GJ,GU and GCHf...plus EG @ strong PPZ....all points to more room for GBP to drop hard.
News in an hour could do it...
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 22, 2010 3:39am
Reason: wrong chart
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Apr 22, 2010 4:10am
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For journal purposes summary of current positions:
CJ short @ 92.90 SL@ 94.10
GJ short @ 142.96 SL @ 144.15
UC long @ 0.9977 SL@ 0.9960
AJ short @ 86.38, SL @ 86.90
G/CHf short @ 1.6496 SL @ 1.6537
G/J short @ 143.63 SL @ 144.20
EG long @ 0.8684 SL 0.8660
G/CHF short @ 1.6490 SL @ 1.6537
Gold long @ 1146.30 SL@BE
UC long @ 1.0005 SL @ 0.9960
EU short @ 1.3399 SL @ 1.3450
EU short @ 1.3406 SL@ 1.3450
E/A long @ 1.3406, SL@ 1.3450
Some are longer term swing trades others shorter term trades
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Apr 22, 2010 4:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Just something light before the move.
I was reading the Soap Opera in Jacko's Thread. Really funny. LJ you played part on it. LOL
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lol, yes I remember some of that...that guy really got my back up. Making wild allegations without any basis and bordering on slanderous is wrong and has no place on this forum...Jacko helped me turn my training around...dont trade his style anymore (but will one day when I've made my dosh as it's easier) but joining his group was the turning point for me which made me realise quite a lot of things about what it takes to be a succesful trader. |
Apr 22, 2010 4:34am
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Added small positions to GBP shorts on news spike - 6% cumulative account size @ risk
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Apr 22, 2010 4:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
.
Lets see. 
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I've only ever used Gold to give insigt for AUD pairs and using the dow and to a lesser extent CHf to guage market sentiment and risk appetite? |
Apr 22, 2010 4:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Care to share? |
Was just a chap on Jackos thread a fair while ago starting to post incoherent rubbish and making wild accusations...made my thoughts clear as did others and he just kept verbally attacking people. Cant remeber the finer details as it was a while ago...and I left the thread until very recently. He recently got banned from FF for his posts. |
Apr 22, 2010 4:56am
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Hmmm looking like I might get taught a lesson on GBP shorts
News was worse than expected, all pairs @ confluence of resistance in particular G/CHF...I'm missing something but I dont know what. |
Apr 22, 2010 5:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
YM for the JPY pairs.
For GBP, I don't know on that.
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YM shot up but falling TL on 1HR is still holding for the time being...so hopefully that will drag GJ down with it...just was expecting a bigger reaction downward in GBP pairs...thought news would be the catalyst to play out the technical position. 4HR doji on G/CHF |
Apr 22, 2010 5:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
What if it retraces to 125 good resistance there and good entry IMO
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You got your reaction @ 125.00 area...can it follow through though...break below 124.58 would be a good sign |
Apr 22, 2010 5:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Morning guys i have slept over a bit last night some problems with the systems on computer.
But when i woke up this was the first i saw easy pips in just couple of minutes Lucky
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Very nice |
Apr 22, 2010 5:21am
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EUR and AUD faling...a lot harder than GBP ...gj and gu showing signs of moving down but need to break PPZ areas...gchf is soaring which suggest gu and gj will follow north as xxx/chf is more of a leader from what I've learned.
EG short looks in trouble now.
Exited gold earlier for few pips.
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Apr 22, 2010 5:26am
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wow...can we break this time?
With oil moving down UC is moving up above parity again. Just missed by pending long order by few pips on the way down this morning.
Still dont get why G/CHF is up...I'm stumped.
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Apr 22, 2010 5:31am
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And here comes the move...how far will it go is the question i.e. how much follow through...if YM can hold lower then we have a chance
But why oh why is this still rising...get the f*ck down (excuse my language) lol
Added EU short @ 1.3370
Gold breaking below PPZ now.
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Apr 22, 2010 5:42am
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But why would you buy GBP if you held Euro...GBP is in a better funadmental position but not much better...wouldnt you rather buy AUD with higher interest rates etc?
Until we get a close below the PPZ on 1HR YM then these moves will be short IMO...I'll be taking some profit shortly if YM can stay below this level.
Oil broken PPZ and triangle, if it holds then expect some more to come on UC and CJ
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Apr 22, 2010 5:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Add some more EU to push it to 1.33 Please
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ha no I've got enough open positions at the moment...3EU shorts...the rising TL just above the RN would be my target...I'll take some profit and give the rest a chance to break through this area...if it breaks I'll add more. |
Apr 22, 2010 5:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Morning guys i have slept over a bit last night some problems with the systems on computer.
But when i woke up this was the first i saw easy pips in just couple of minutes Lucky
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I hope you chased in my shorting CJ and going long UC at the same time |
Apr 22, 2010 5:55am
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I missed shorting AU...was waiting for a higher entry nearer 9325.
Same on CJ...but then I missed the oil TL and RN...otherwise would have loaded up longs and shorts on UC and CJ too.
Just tried another touch on EG PPZ for a long
Missed EJ short was waiting for 20 pips higher.
Will add to GU short if breaks 1.5387
Added another GCHf short ...it's just gotta go down lol
Will quickly close and take profit if YM doesnt close below PPZ how this closes is key for me. I think it will close below ...gold and oil broken PPZ areas so YM should hopefully follow
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Apr 22, 2010 5:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Which TL. There is a support at 1.33027 on my chart. Is it that?
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yes |
Apr 22, 2010 6:02am
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Break 11,000 break 11,000 |
Apr 22, 2010 6:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Close all my shorts oil
150 pip drop in so a short time
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Good area for an expected retrace...look for a re-entry on a retrace back to the broken PPZ? |
Apr 22, 2010 6:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Good area for an expected retrace...look for a re-entry on a retrace back to the broken PPZ?
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Meant to add big 4HR BEOb brekaing the round number suggests a continuation move down...a discounted entry into the BEOb would be a short from a retracement back to the PPZ/broken TL |
Apr 22, 2010 6:43am
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USDCHF near a falling daily TL...indicating EU could stall unless it pushes straight through.
Added another GU short on break of 1.5388 PPZ
Would look to add another long on EA if EU was @ 13300 area when EA was an PPZ...but AUD is also @ PPZ area so would want a break of this area for everthing to be lined up.
Will add an EG long if EU gets to the 13300 area as would expect some stalling.
G/CHF - looking heavy ...took long enough!
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Apr 22, 2010 6:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
You mean at 82.85??
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God I got cr*p spreads on this short...I entered it @ the first PPZ grrr |
Apr 22, 2010 6:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
NO Pin Bar, No Pin Bar |
It's looking ok. there is US news release in 90 minutes upon which I would expect some whipsaws if it is different to forecast. If news is bad then we could see a big sell of in equities news good then we could see a retracement back up IMO
Looking ahead GBP GDP tommorrow..I want toi hold onto some og my GU short until then if the market behaves...if this is bad then we should see the GBP tanking...hopefully I'll stilll have some EG longs on too if the market behaves.
Just my thoughts and of course might not play out...but when technicals get you into a trade and news is coming up I find that more often than not the news will drive the price in the direction of your trade. |
Apr 22, 2010 7:02am
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I've taken some profits on GU and GJ shorts ahead of US economic news and Equity opens.
I'm holding my CJ short and UC longs due to BEOB on Oil 4HR and and short Oil.
Still long EG and short G/CHF (gulp).
EU still holding until 13300 area is reached which I cant see not happening - fundamentals and technicals line up nicely. I'm an aggresive seller off any spikes up.
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Apr 22, 2010 7:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ohh God i can't keep up with this thread and LJ's trades. lol
too fast man.
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lol...I know I've written myself a metal note that one of my aims is to sloooooooowwww down and take less trades...being more picky and increasing risk is how I'd prefer to be going forward.
Presume you were all over the xxx/jpy and xxx/usd shorts this morning...saw your posts on J16...I need to work harder at getting my PPZ lined up more exact and spotting the major ones - in reference to AJ.
This is like deja vu isn't it...wasn't it this time last week when the week went from being a frustrating one to a very profitable one... |
Apr 22, 2010 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
closed now i keep hands off gonna take a shower
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Can you see what an alternative plan could have been?
You had a great entry and a great setup and you exited for some nice pips...but one look @ the 4Hr (not sure if it shows it on your feed) and seeing that 4HR BEOB there would be no way I would have exited that trade...I would have added on a pullback to the PPZ in preparation for a break of the BEOB. Letting winners run and adding into winning positions is what really makes an account grow.
Not critiscising...just pointing out to people how trading your charts and not your P&L is key to success.
I was guilty of this mistake on a great UC entry last week - just ask Nasir! |
Apr 22, 2010 7:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Yea lol. same like last week.
If you wan't to take less and better trades only trade upon Daily/Weekly PPZ's, Avoid trades inside ranges and don't take breakouts against BRN's and PPZ's.
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Yep... I will do...having over 20 positions open is too much and too stressfull. I want to be able to trade calmly and in control and sometimes I'm all over the place.
Trading just the major daily / weekly PPZ areas is definitely what I want to focus on and risking more on these trades and spotting great correlated setups i.e. when everything lines up e.g. oil @ PPZ with CJ and UC...or EUR @ strong PPZ AUD in clear space - buy EA if @ support. Spotting these low risk setups is what I want to get better at.
Still want to play some of the 1HR and 4HR PPZ's but only if they are clear with super confluence and at swings. I want an overall big picture trading plan first.
I also want to get better at taking touch trades...I've missed so many great ones over the last two weeks.
Lastly, I want to play a trend from start to finish i.e. pick a reversal / touch trade and add into it all the way up / down. Stop and reverse etc. |
Apr 22, 2010 7:45am
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as I mentioned earlier...we need to break this area for EU to continue down...I would prefer a retrecement - so my EG longs will and G/CHF shorts will take off.
For this reason I've taken all profit on my EU shorts and wil get back in on any retracement. There is more room up then there is down and with Dow futures strongly down I still think we will break the yearly lows very soon. |
Apr 22, 2010 8:27am
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Some stats...
Week 1 47 trades, 70.2% win rate, 110.57% account increase
Week 2 84 trades, 69.0% win rate, 94.62% account increase on prior week
Week 3 60 trades, (up until yesterday) 55.0% win rate, 7.15% account increase on prior week.
This supports my view that I need to trade less and be more picky...if I can be more picky and get the win rate back up the account increase % will go up with it.
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Apr 22, 2010 8:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Waiting for this LJ????
But i don't think so
as yet.
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I'm already in from yesterday...had a pending order today on the blue line but it missed it.
It's deja vu again...what happened last week...oh yeah 1HR trendline got a great entry on UC but then ohhh yeah I closed out my entry that had a 7 pip risk prematurely when a 4HR BUOB had formed...much to your disgust lol. |
Apr 22, 2010 9:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Do you use the market money to increase the lot sizes or do you keep working from your initial equity?
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increase sizes in line with whatver my current closed balance is..well roughly speaking.
I'm going to be withdrawing some soon though to pay for some future living costs so everything is paid for and thus what I have left to trade will be just money to compound and make more money i.e. I'll have about 9 months to make enough money in order to be able to not work again for the following year and consider myself a full time trader....about 100% increase in acount per month will do it |
Apr 22, 2010 9:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
But there is a reason price dint hit the TL this time. 
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If this holds then we could see a retracement back to the TL on UC?
currently playing the 4HR BEOB on Oil down to this area |
Apr 22, 2010 9:36am
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Wow that was quick took gold short and went to put SL in and kaboom...dow futures are plummeting with DJI too |
Apr 22, 2010 9:47am
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Apr 22, 2010 9:53am
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Just missed my buy order .
All trades going well (well you cant really get it wrong with moves like today can you) apart from EG which is being stubborn...EG really depends on whether EU makes new yearly lows or stalls...looks heavy at the moment.
Exited G/CHf...baffled me that one...was quite expensive too.
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Apr 22, 2010 10:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Hi,
this are a lot of trades for 1 hr and higher tf's. May I ask you how much of your acc do you set under risk at the same time?
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It depends...I use 1-3% per trade, mostly 1% at the moment. If I add positions on teh same pari it will be in the direction of my trade and thus true risk is not same as initial risk if that makes sense.
I try to limit max exposure to correlated pairs to 5-7% on average but if we have a no brainer setup i.e. if everything lines up with xxx/jpy and dow and commodities then I'm happy to risk more...if things go wrong I'll cut quickly i.e. will not suffer full losses - I dont suffer full losses often. |
Apr 22, 2010 10:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Have to stop somewhere i am giving away all my secrets.
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I used to follow all the equities but found that following just dow is enough...maybe I should re-look into this. |
Apr 22, 2010 10:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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I'm on these too...only small positions though...gotta reverse one big falling rock there...went long oil too
Pending shorts underneath E/J and E/U to catch breakouts. |
Apr 22, 2010 10:31am
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liquidated all shorts so only curent positions are long oil, EG, EJ, EU, AU, EA - all stops @ BE on these. Dow is retracing from TL back to PPZ i.e. back to break out area.
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Apr 22, 2010 10:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Are we done for the day ?
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Can it break back up above the area it broke earlier today... |
Apr 22, 2010 10:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
I really like the way you trade and manage your trades but I think 5-7% exposure would be a bit too much for me. It seem's you can handle the risk when I see how fast your acc is growing. Keep it up.
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Thanks...as I say that is an extreme and even though I might have this amount at risk across correlated pairs at any one time I wouldnt take full losses so that might be amount theoretically at risk but in reality it's less |
Apr 22, 2010 11:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msmarple
Just found this in the james16 thread, maybe an explanation for gbpchf.
Although I am still hoping for some retracement. Wait and see.
Great posts, many thanks ! |
yeah I saw that post too....missed that when looking at the weekly.
G/CHf was painful as was EG today. Was looking for a touch trade @ 1.6600 short on G/CHf...didnt quite get there on last push up. |
Apr 22, 2010 1:41pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Thanks mate i still need to learn it good i dont see it as critic i like your feedback thats what i need thanks lovejoy
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No worries...can you see why I stopped and reversed @ 82 for a long...just exited @ 83.40. That's the type of trades I love...well defined setups wiht obvious stop and revese targets...these types of trades I'll be increasing my risk on in future. I didnt get the entry you did cos I didnt have the TL drawn but from the moment the BEOB formed and the wiht the way the market was today i.e. gold and equities weak there was only one area that price was going.
The touch trade from 82 was the best touch trade I've had so far and with a combined 6.5R on both trades...these are the kinf of high quality setups I want to focus on going forward...easy stress free setups where I can risk 2-3% and just let them go. |
Apr 22, 2010 1:44pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am gonna write a post over the weekend on how to turn +110 pips into a break-even. |
What happened? |
Apr 22, 2010 2:19pm
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I exited my UC longs earlier as was epxected oil to bounce off 82 and UC and CJ to retrace so decided rather than hold I'd take profit and re-enter.
Oil has just hit a falling TL resistance so have gone long UC (just in case Oil doesnt hit the PPZ above)..with a buy order @ the weekly PPZ and rising TL if Oil does manage to make it the PPZ.
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Apr 22, 2010 2:35pm
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EC approaching previous weekly low for the second time ...Oil near PPZ and thus potential CAD weakness...Euro rising off support on EU and UC near support...means its worth a touch trade on EC surely...spread is rubbish on MT4 - 7pips compared to 4 on Oanda
EDIT: as price approached this area spread on both Alpari and Fxpro widened to 11...hmmmm
Price hit the exact low to the pip on MT4...on Oanda, although the previous low is shown as the same as that of MT4 on this occasion the low reached was some 7 pips higher than that of my MT4 so trade not triggered as yet...I've noticed this difference before and am always careful that when entering on Oanda that I look at their charts rather than MT4 as there can be some material diferences in price feeds.
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Apr 22, 2010 2:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EC approaching previous weekly low for the second time ...Oil near PPZ and thus potential CAD weakness...Euro rising off support on EU and UC near support...means its worth a touch trade on EC surely...spread is rubbish on MT4 - 7pips compared to 4 on Oanda
EDIT: as price approached this area spread on both Alpari and Fxpro widened to 11...hmmmm
Price hit the exact low to the pip on MT4...on Oanda, although the previous low is shown as the same as that of MT4 on this occasion the low reached was some 7 pips higher than that of my MT4 so trade...
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Cancelled order now...price only went down to 93 compared to 86 previouisly on Oanda despite both MT4 showing it forming a double bottom on 15min charts. I had an order @ 89 wiht 12 pip SL...ask price is exactly 12 pips or 1R in profit now
Plan was to risk 2%, exit half @ 310 PPZ on 15min chart and move rest to BE and see if it can run.
You can see how a well thought out touch trade can work well...this was a decent trading setup IMO.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 22, 2010 3:03pm
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Apr 22, 2010 3:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
What if it retraces to 125 good resistance there and good entry IMO
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Getting better at marking my PPZ's is an immediate action point and taking time to thouroughly look at a chart.
Thiis was my chart this morning...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=621
Just going over my charts now and this is how I would have drawn my charts... |
Apr 22, 2010 4:16pm
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Dow futures hitting resistance and reverseing (with divergence) again...the dow is winding up for a big move IMO...we now have multiple tests of this high so we will either burst through (but there is a lot of weekly resistance above) or break the 4HR TL...looking at the Dow itself( rather than futures) you can see the 4HR TL more clerarly that it needs to break in order to register a reversal.
Thanks to Nasir I'm now also looking @ dax and FTSE futures...you can see that FTSE has already formed LL and LH and is in a falling channel and the DAX is forming LH so both are indicating weakness...will the dow follow???
I've sold another bout of AJ, GJ, EJ which are all @ PPZ areas. Also sold CJ which is now @ PPZ with Oil stalling at the falling TL mentioned earlier...UC is already in play.
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Apr 22, 2010 4:35pm
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Running tight stops on these with conservative targets...not looking for runners, risk 2% on each i.e. I've chosen the best and not all the setups
Also have a pending order on G/CHF to sell @ confluence of round number, fibs and PPZ.
EUR / AUD has broken to new lows...I'll play a retrace to the breakout area i.e. breakout & retrace then back down with trend.
Now to look @ all other pairs on the daily charts. |
Apr 22, 2010 5:01pm
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Found this on my other pairs I watch on daily and weekly...not sure what the spread is like but a breakout trade at some point (if price can wait until European or US session).
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Apr 22, 2010 5:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm hating myself for not taking the EA mini pin on daily.
Other than that. Great trades and analysis. I can't really keep up with all that you're doing (well not necessarily doing, but analyzing all the pairs at the same time), but steadily learning how to. Not that I really want to get myself in that many trades daily (I'm aiming for 2-3% per week, not 100% ). |
yeah that would have been worth a lot...there will be plenty of other opportunities though ...when playing pairs ina deep trend on the longer term timeframe I'm never that fussed by PA I'll just play pullbacks to clear PPZ areas and the usual confluence. Need to start doing few more of these.
I need to slow down a bit, which I will do from next week. I'm in an aggresive account building mode as due to my circumstances I have a window of opportunity of 9 months to try and make enough so that I can fund the next year of living and provide enough capital to trade full time from home.
making 100% per month for the next 6-9 months will achieve this goal for me...if all goes to plan, after this I'll change my style and trade far less and be far pickier just looking for say 10-20% per month as this way of trading I find quite stressful and I couldnt keep it up on a permanent basis. |
Apr 23, 2010 1:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Running tight stops on these with conservative targets...not looking for runners, risk 2% on each i.e. I've chosen the best and not all the setups
Also have a pending order on G/CHF to sell @ confluence of round number, fibs and PPZ.
EUR / AUD has broken to new lows...I'll play a retrace to the breakout area i.e. breakout & retrace then back down with trend.
Now to look @ all other pairs on the daily charts. |
These are my favourite trades...trades that make you money while you sleep.
pending order short on EU also got triggered over night...order was just below yearly lows...was obvious it was going to break overnight.
GBP still relatively strong compared to other currencies...GDP is the big news of the morning...you'd think the news will be good the way the GBP is holding up, I'm still in all my shorts so I'll asses nearer the news time. EJ is near PPZ and 'flag' support again - can it break this time...
Only trade that lost overnight was the G/CHF touch trade...the CHF's really do baffle they aren't behaving like they should in a normal market...wont be fussed trading these for the forseeable future.
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Apr 23, 2010 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Waiting for PA
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This is my chart....TL, RN which is also a PPZ and fib confluence...very small touch trade buy or sell EUR / AUD or both downtrend is strong so not expecting a reversal...as you say waiting for PA would be the conservative highest probability method.
What I do with touch trading is to risk a small position...so you are like testing the market, putting out a little risk to see if you are right in that price will be reversed...if it doesnt then I'm out quick for a tiny loss...if I'm right then the aim is to keep adding more and more positions as the trend reversal develops.
Learned this from ROASO and watching Nasir. |
Apr 23, 2010 2:38am
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Summary of open positions...
Short AJ @ 86.80
EJ @ 124.46
GJ @ 143.81
CJ @ 93.52
UC long @ .9923
AU long @ 9199
EU short @ 1.3262
Looking at weekly charts next major PPZ on EU is just under 1.3100
I'll be adding more positions on a retrace back up to the broken yearly lows or a break of 13200. EJ I'll add on a break of flag support @123.30
Just see G/CHf has now decided to reverse...touch trade was a loss @ the RN overnight...that pair is so annoying to trade!
Sticking with my plan to take less trades, concentrating on take high probability trades i.e. get my win rate back up to 70% and adding into positions on the direction of a trend (peaks and valleys) and playing clearly defined ranges. Keeping it simple, stress free and trading calm. I'll be risking 2% more often than not compared to 1% previously on trades....I want to see my account grow the same but my win rate @ 70% ish and the number of trades I take decrease.
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Apr 23, 2010 3:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I woke up early so I warite it now.
I was in the GBP/JPY short and I was pretty loaded. My other trades were doing fine so I took a 3% position size on this one.
My entry point was 143.4 (around 70 pips from the beginning of the swing down).
The first trouble area 142.7 seemed to be over and there was enogh room to go...
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Mistakes that mean you didn't make money are much easier to take than mistakes that lose you a lot of money...trust me lol!
Your sense for wnating more money stopped you acting rationally and in line with your pre-set trading plan.
If you find yourself in a position where you are indecisive as to what to do when you reach your pre-agreed exit point what I do is ask yourself has anything changed from your original exit plan that you set pre-trade...i.e. has anything changed that means you should change your exit plan...if not then you must follow your exit plan to the letter...getting into the habit of having a pre-defined exit plan prior to you entering a trade and then following this plan exactly will make you a much better trader and will eliminate making decisions based on emotions.
If in hindhsight your exit plan was wrong then you can work on improving your plan but until you can trade without greed and fear affecting your trades I would highly recommend that you have a well defined plan and execute that plan exactly...when I startd to do this my results were astonishing and there is nothing more satisfying to the ego then having a good setup and trading plan and executing that plan and it resulting in a nice winning trade...it is smooth, easy and dull...just how trading should be.
My advice would be also to never ever focus on %R or $ profit in making a decision as to whether close a trade as this will hold you back. Letting your winners run is key to improving your results and if you kept cutting winners at a certain %R or $ profit then your results will decrease.
I used to eliminate anything that showed me profit , $ etc on my screen so I could trade what the charts tell me. What I like to do before I enter a trade is write down or note all the future trouble areas i.e. PPZ etc and how will I react at those areas i.e. first trouble area - take profit/ move SL to BE, leave alone/ take partial profit ete / add another position on a break. The more you can have every possibility pre-thought out and planned then the better you will become as a trader IMO. i.e. the more automatic you can become...having a detailed trading plan and merely executing that plan unless anything material has changed during you trade compared to when you set the plan etc.
This is just my opinion from my own experiences...I am a very analytical person and when I blew up an account it was the best thing that could have happened to me from a long term perpsective as I sat down and went through everything that was stopping me becoming a successful trade and worked out ways I could eliminate, control, change. As far as I'm concerned I will never be the best trader in the world...I'm not 'wired' correctly...but I know what I need to do to control my emotions and can spot the signs when things are going wrong...but I dont need to be the best trader in the world in order to make a living from this business.
I still make mistakes...I am human after all...but the difference now is I know when I'm making mistakes where as before I didn't and couldnt understand what was going soooo wrong...just look through this thread...I've made countless mistakes...some of them I've reviewed on here and posted charts of what I should have done after the fact. This is the reason I want to slow down...I've got too many trades going on to focus and have a pre-defined plan in my head and am missing things like the BUOB on UC last week ... missing that cos I was too busy trading like a headless chicked meant I turned a decent profit but which should have been a huge profit (7 pip SL on original entry!)
Anway i'm droning on...not very good a contructing sentences I just type what comes into my head.
I hope my thoughts are useful...certainly not meant as a rant at you or anything just trying to be helpful from my own personal experiences.
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Apr 23, 2010 3:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I see what you mean.
I did my TL based on Daily. To me this entire move from 0.92 area is a breakout and this is the second PB to the daily TL. If it hold (may be helped by gold) to me is definitely a Long
I did have ROASO but did not read it yet. I am now reading more psyco trading books, as I need to improve.
I am also busy re-reading as Nasir said, the first 400 pages of J16. It is an unbelievable reading as you can see how the technic started and it evolved from there.
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This is my daily chart...we have a clear channel and can see that we had a false breakout previously that is why I haven'y connected the TL all the lows on the daily...but on the 4H there is a clear TL connecting the lows.
There is so much resistance above on the AU....loook at a weekly chart and mark the PPZ areas there are loads...so the 'path of least resistance' is definetly down and a confirmation of a change in trend is a close below the channel.
Fundamentally RBA have indicated they wont be raising interest rates anytime soon (from what I last read) and thus I am bearish AU. Part of what I want to get better at doing is taking some swing trades based on daily or taking lower time frame trades and holding them based on my long term view. A trade near the highs would be nearly 200 pips in profit now and if it closed below the channel today then you would have a good confirmed trend change IMO and already be in a nice profit and in a position to add more positions. |
Apr 23, 2010 3:18am
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...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=61610
This is a bearish bar - an inverted pin bar meaning there a higher probability that the dow will retrace down today (see Ghous's posts for explanation as to why these work and what setups to look for)...not set in stone obviously but it makes sense as the Dax and FTSE are laready bearish (see my previous post last night - thanks to Nasir for getting me to look at these again). Will take a look at the S&P and Nasdaq in a bit too. |
Apr 23, 2010 3:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
,.
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Morning Nasir,
kept my entry from yesterday...not sure why the sudden strong move in CAD...no move in oil.
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Apr 23, 2010 3:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
But than why did you take a long at 0.9199?
Do not get me wrong I d like to understand.
TX
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I thought that question was coming...
A mid/long term view on a pair can differ from your short term view as price obviously doesnt just go in one direction in order to get to your long term target.
This touch trade setup is a defined setup i.e. PPZ, TL, round number and Fibs which I'll take no matter what my long term view is. It might not work...but I'll take them all day long if they presented themselves as this is part of my short term trading methods. It might lose or it might lead to a short term retrace...my ultimate target would be 0.9300 RN and descending TL on 4HR with my FTA @ 0.9225.
If I start over analysing and saying why am I going long when long term view is bearish then that's when you are looking at things in too much depth and talking yourself out of a trade. I see a set up that I know what works more often than not and I pull the trigger...that's how to be...it is very easy to talk yourself out of a trade byu over analysing things...mostly this comes from not being confident enough and that comes from either riskig too much capital or because you have not practised / tested the set up enough....if you have tested / practised / researched the setup to death then you should have extreme confidence in taking a setup...confidence is important IMO in trading being able to see a setup and pull the trigger automatically. |
Apr 23, 2010 3:53am
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By the way exited EJ,EU and AJ shorts earlier as lacking downard momentum and retrace is coming first...keeping CJ short and UC long in play and still have GJ short open...will keep this open through GDP news...if good then obviously I'll exit very quickly...if bad then GBP will tank.
I still favour selling xxx/jpy and xxx/usd in any rallys today...but a break above the highs on dow or positive GBP GDP news might change my view on this as positive risk appetite might be back across the board....though I wouldnt expect much follow through north in EUR.
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Apr 23, 2010 4:10am
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Breakout and retrace...
Right enough from me...be back later.
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Apr 23, 2010 4:44am
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I know I keep bleating on about this pair...but this is what baffles me...yesterday GU and GJ declines nicely and yet G/CHf kept rising...we get worse than expected GDP figures (although it is widely expected they will be revised up as severe winter weather impacted Jan-Feb figures) and GU and GJ dont really move thast much and yet G/CHF is strongly moving down...defies logic to me!
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Apr 23, 2010 4:54am
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Equity futures very strong this morning and seeing decent moves up on EUR on rumours Greece will ask for a bailout from IMF / EU this morning.
Stupid really as this is the tip of the iceberg...so many more problems for the Euro a loan from other EU members and IMF is nothing it will not save the Euro from tanking towards parity at some polnt this year IMO.
Being very cautious on my trades as it's Friday and all...things can change very quickly in equity markets as well all know.
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Apr 23, 2010 5:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
May be a too simple explanation but... CHF follows Euro and yesterday its decline was much deeper than GBP
Anyway shorted again gbp/Jpn on the spike. 15 pips higher than yesterday.
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Yes...good point...E/CHF hardly moves and thus if EUR down then CHF will be down...got it now...doh should have worked that out!!
I'm still in from my earlier GU and GJ shorts...added an EJ short to my EU short and added an Oil short to go with my existing CJ short and UC longs.
Taken half proft in AU touch trade long @ FTA and moved remainder to BE.
GU and GJ is extremely tightly squeezed...reckon a breakout is coming today.
Watching this carefully though....
Lots of CAD news out later and some US news...big news is Greece though...any rise in EUR is temporary IMO and a great opportunitity to get into the long term trend at a discount. |
Apr 23, 2010 5:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
By the way, congratulations LJ. 50 pages in 3 weeks !!
Sooner you will compete with Cable Update
Very good job
Tx |
Oh yeah hadn't noticed that...that's a sign that I need to post less and get a life more
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Apr 23, 2010 5:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Like a little cherry now !
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Hmmm it is...I'm not taking it though...it would have had to close above the PPZ for me to consider this and I'm short GJ,GU,EJ,EU so going long AU wouldnt make sense...still have half my earlier touch trade on the go so I'll leave that in play.
It's quite interesting that Gold hasn't moved all day so far.
A good point to short EU???
EDIt: my PPZ on AU runs quite wide from 9225 - 9235 Iw ould have wanted the pin to have a good close above this level. I would prefer a short from the PPZ than a long on the pin bar....just my opnion and I could be wrong of course...dont let me sway you from your plan. |
Apr 23, 2010 5:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am willing to build positions every 50 from 1.33. I am just worried because it is Friday. They always invent something about Greece during the weekend (they did the last 2) and than on Monday we have a gap up.
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Yeah I'm not keen on holding positions over the weekend either at the moment but I have the advantage that Oanda never closed so I can hedge if required. But I reckon thenews will be now with Greece about activating the package. I still believe a lot of investors are blind and stupid...I mean they are activating a rescue package the fact that they need to activate it shows how serious there situation is (as well as the other PIIGS) and is bearish...there are a fair few detailed articles on the net by people that not more than me about the economics but the Euro still has serious issues ahead of it. |
Apr 23, 2010 6:03am
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This is what I meant by GBP winding up llook at the 4HR and 1HR bars...very small moves for this pair...when price doesnt move much compared to it's normal movement it is often like a spring coiling up ready to spring open...I expect price to shoot in one direction at some point..hopefully down!
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Apr 23, 2010 6:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi LOvejoy bit late reaction i was at my normal dayjob.
Can you explain me a bit better this Beob thing dont really know it
Thanks
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Yep...I'll prepare a detailed analysis using some charts in a bit my friend. |
Apr 23, 2010 6:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yep...I'll prepare a detailed analysis using some charts in a bit my friend. |
Prepared this quickly but hope it makes sense. |
Apr 23, 2010 6:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
Did you get the pivot point + PPZ confluence to short Aud? I thought it was right up your alley. Here is the chart - Hourly MT4 chart with analysis and a 15 minute Oanda chart showing the position about to tp
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I was tempted but already have a fair bit of exposure to USD and JPY so gave it a pass...otherwise yes was a good setup... |
Apr 23, 2010 7:41am
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breakout on UJ....not good for xxx/jpy.
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Apr 23, 2010 8:20am
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Exited xxx/jpy shorts as soon as UJ broke above it PPZ...still short GU,EU and long UC.
Despite Greece news...Euro is not realy moving up that much...signs that sellers are still in control overall.
Dow futures are testing 11100 mutliple times...still feel a big move is coming today in this...logic might say up as trend is up, but...hmmmm getting ready to load up on xxx/jpy soon.
CAD and US news in 10 mins.
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Apr 23, 2010 8:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
DJ retesting 1115  |
Markets have to digest Greece news....economic release in 10 mins and it's Friday ...have to be careful as can can get some big moves but also some 'fake' moves in both directions. I'm always cautious on a Friday... |
Apr 23, 2010 8:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
If it stays like that I will put a sell limit E/U tonight at 1.34 or higher
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I dont think it will get that high...well hopefully not lol.
Added an AU short now and looking xxx/jpy entries...all @ PPZ so just watching carefully...prefer to wait until US markets open to see how Dow reacts...or might just enter small positions now and then add or cut later etc. hmmmm |
Apr 23, 2010 8:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I dont think it will get that high...well hopefully not lol.
Added an AU short now and looking xxx/jpy entries...all @ PPZ so just watching carefully...prefer to wait until US markets open to see how Dow reacts...or might just enter small positions now and then add or cut later etc. hmmmm
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Dow futures retracing...loaded up on EJ,AJ andGJ shorts...GJ and EJ all @ PPz areas. It's friday though so being careful of whipsaws and quick reversals...will be banking profit if I'm in the position to do so. Plus short AU...strong USD so it'll break TL this time...if it can close below then I'll try and hold this one....keen on trying to hold the xxx/USD shorts if the market permits. |
Apr 23, 2010 8:55am
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Making up for my poor trade on UC last week...could do with Oil breaking 83 though.
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Apr 23, 2010 9:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am opening an account with FxPro. I know you are using them.
Being based in Cyprus, up to what amount do you feel confident with them?
Just an indication. Please PM if you prefer.
Cheers
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Ummm I dunno...I dont have a large account and certainly not large enough that I have a concern as to how much I'm comfortable depositing with a broker. I trade with Alpari UK, FxPro and Oanda...I prefer Oanda in terms of a trading platform, spreads and execution speed and lack of requotes..I'm always getting requoted on Alpari and FxPro. |
Apr 23, 2010 10:09am
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new home Sales caused dow to break above resistance into new highs...
I'm out of GJ, AJ and EJ shorts for small profits. Still short GU, EU and AU but watching carefully.
If dow can mantain above resistance then I'd expect xxx/jpy to break out above PPZ areas. GBP in particular is looking heavy so looking at GBP crosses for trade opportunities.
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Apr 23, 2010 10:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What do we do with the UC man? I have 2 open positions from 2 days ago, but I really really don't like how oil's doing. Price has retracted to the day before yesterday's low (wanted to buy, but couldn't be fast enough) and it's preparing to break the daily pin... Things aren't looking rosy, DJ broke the high...
Edit: Ok, I'm out at +0.1R had 1/2 TP @ FTA (1.0065) it missed by 1 pip... |
yeah I closed my UC longs about 20 mins ago.
Oil is back up @ resistance again...as is C/J but I'm keen to wind up for the day and week shortly.
Still holding EU shorts but exited GU for a gain and AU for a loss. |
Apr 23, 2010 10:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
yeah I closed my UC longs about 20 mins ago.
Oil is back up @ resistance again...as is C/J but I'm keen to wind up for the day and week shortly.
Still holding EU shorts but exited GU for a gain and AU for a loss.
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Ahh sod it I'm in CJ short again...My gut feeling says that the dow wont hold onto these gain and we'll get a quick reversal...I still reckon we'll see xxx/jpy and xxx/usd head down before the day is out |
Apr 23, 2010 10:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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lol...great minds think alike eh?!
...I'm not confident enough to load up...got small positions on xxx/jpy and xxx/usd now...set some SL's and will now leave them be. |
Apr 23, 2010 10:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Stop me out LJ.
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I'll try my best |
Apr 23, 2010 10:37am
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Apr 23, 2010 10:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I'll try my best |
But I like your thinking and entries...I'm not very good and just cutting a trade and reversing my thinking...you seem to be able to trade...stop and reverse pretty well my friend. |
Apr 23, 2010 10:42am
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This I like...
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Apr 23, 2010 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I think Nasir is right. There is also a reverse H&S on H1
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I'd recommend he take profit now...my orders are getting filled |
Apr 23, 2010 11:04am
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If it goes up above the left eye then I reckon dow is heading back up and taking the xxx/jpy with it...however if the pin bar plays out then watch it take xxx/jpy south with it...
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Apr 23, 2010 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Just closed 33% of my position. The challenge is still on. Btw look how the 1H closed. You wanna go against it?????
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Ha...yeah I did
I've got 0.01 lots on EU short from the close of the last hourly bar...I dont know why the market hasn't tanked yet on my orders
Just looked at gold |
Apr 23, 2010 11:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I really don't want to be the party crasher LJ, but it's Friday afternoon in a really awkward week. Do you expect things to be technical now?
You said you're gonna take the time off, you're not following your plan.
Again, I don't want to be rude...
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Hey...you're not being rude...we're all here to help each other etc.
yeah I know...I think I'm addicted lol. I've literally got tiny orders - micro lots and have set SL and have left them...wanna see if my theory plays out.
I dont even have my platforms open now. Just catching up on posts and other stuff online. |
Apr 23, 2010 11:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am FxPro member
Don't know if I should be happy but as soon as I registered they called me already twice. Is it a good sign, Or They just want to know how much I am gonna transfer to them? |
I didn't get any call when I joined
It's surely not a bad thing a company taking an interest in their clients...probably your account manager claling to discuss your needs / requirements etc etc. |
Apr 23, 2010 12:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Has euro done its work?
Still thinking about a weekend gap.
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We shall see...I can't see it getting above 13400.
US afternoons have been really quiet recently...wonder if we'll get any decent moves today. |
Apr 23, 2010 2:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I put sell limit orders at 1.3450 and 1.35 on EU
SL 1.36 . Mr Wayne style.
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I've got sell orders @ 1.3400 and 1.3500 - 1.3400 based on 1HR chart and 1.3500 based on 4H chart...I'm bearish EU until we break 1.3700 from a med/long term perspective. The daily chart shows LH and now we've made a LL...though I'd be more comfortable when we close below the previous lows...all we've done is spike down low intraday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36730325
I like Jim Rogers...I think he makes a lot of sense. |
Apr 23, 2010 2:40pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I never followed Cnbc/ Bloomberg to many opinions going on. But if you say the guy is worth than I ll Take a look
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I have CNBC on all day long whilst I'm trading...dont really listen to what they say most of the time but use it more for breaking news / economic news plus I have a general interest in economics...just find it an interesting area and there are a couple of hot female reporters lol.
IMO he cuts the BS and says it how it is and keeps things simple...unlike a lot of guests they have on there talking economics. |
Apr 23, 2010 5:10pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Some stats...
Week 1 47 trades, 70.2% win rate, 110.57% account increase
Week 2 84 trades, 69.0% win rate, 94.62% account increase on prior week
Week 3 60 trades, (up until yesterday) 55.0% win rate, 7.15% account increase on prior week.
This supports my view that I need to trade less and be more picky...if I can be more picky and get the win rate back up the account increase % will go up with it.
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Week 3 130 trades 49.2% win rate, 11.70% account gain. Total account gain is now 357.74%
A really poor week relative to previous weeks...I'm taking far too many trades and not being picky enough. I'll do some more detailed analysis / thoughts and some changes / goals for next week over the weekend. |
Apr 24, 2010 6:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
He Lovejoy,
I think you need to calm on a bit more do some good relaxing this weekend.
Looks like you are bit overtrading see this as a feedback you doing really outstanding.
Dont ask to much from yourself or become to overconfident.
But thatfs my opinion mate i hope you can archieve your goals i am working on it also.
Finding the right way now and i learn a lot from you and Nasir
Thanks
I was analyzing my charts and spotted this acording to j16 this is a good setup right?
And Nasir can... |
Yep totally agree with you about overtrading...will post more about this over the weekend.
With regards A/CAD...I nearly took a touch trade off that obvious PPZ area on Friday but decided against it.
My view on the daily pin is a follows.
1. Look at the monthly and weekly time frame...the first thing I notice is that this pair is pretty choppy. We also have a BEOB on the weekly...although not a great one and not one I'd play myself as a continuation bar.
2. The pin itself is a good pin in terms of size.
3. With regards divergence I dont see it...if you have RASI(6) set to close then there is no divergence...be careful when looking for divergence...I've marked the bars that the divergence points applies to...you can see that the close of the pin bar is higher than that of the other bar and thus for divergence we'd be looking for RSI to be showing a low not a high when the pin bar formed compared to the previous bar...hope that makes sense. I personally prefer to set RSI to high/low depending on what we are looking for i.e. in this sitation low as per my second chart - in this case you can see there is no divergence as price made a new low and so did the RSI.
4. The most important part of this setup (I personally dont use fib fans or fibs other than 50/61.8) is the lack of space above. When looking at setups like this you forumlate an exit plan in advance...thus mark the areas where you'd expect price to have trouble and as you can see there is virtually no room to the first trouble area (FTA). This doesn't mean it's not tradable it just means you need a plan in place as to what you will do when price reaches this area.
For me personally I would only take this bar if we had a retracement first before breaking the high of the pin bar as the FTA is far too close to make it worthwhile taking the break. A retracement back to the 'left eye' of the pin bar would be a good place to place a long with the expectation that price will then break back up and head towards the FTA. If price broke below the left eye I'd be quick to kill the trade as it is highly likely that price would then head towards the PPZ again.
Other people use a fib retracement of the bar itself to enter a trade - I've not experimented with this yet.
Please note that this is advanced entry techniques...the bog standard way of entering these trades is on a break of the bar...a pin bar is not a pin bar until it has broken it's high. Of course we may get a fast break and soar through the trouble areas...but IMO thre is a lot of choppyness to play with on this setup...if you do take it make sure you plan it advance what you are going to do at each area....you can of course give it some space and see if it eventually breaks through these....but for me I would not want to take a loss on this type of setup.
The hard thing for me about playing these bars when you need to watch price carefully is that they play out in Asian session when I'm asleep.
These are just my views of course...
A great trade to have taken on Friday would have been the A/CHF BEOB on 4HR...see Mikes post here....if I'd seen that I would have risked 5% of my account on this trade...it's as good as sure money as you can get IMO.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=61680
With regards touch trading...i'll let Nasir go into more detail on this as he is better at these than me...but take a look at G/CHF on Friday and see if you can spot where and why a there was a good setup for a touch trade.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 24, 2010 9:53am
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Apr 24, 2010 12:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Thank you verry much for you explanation Lovejoy i print all the post of your journal and take a look at it this weekend.
Thanks for help i am starting to see things different |
No worries Just remember that every trader is different in the setups they will take...it all depends on your tolerance to risk. As far as I'm concerned a conservative trader would not take this trade or at best would take full profit / move SL to BE at the FTA. A more aggresive trader like myself would wait for a retracement first and would maybe take some profit at the FTA or see if we can burst through quickly. The way I see is your tolerance to risk depends on your aims and goals...the larger the account you have the more picky you can be as the % you need to make per month / year etc. in order for the business to pay for your living costs etc. is much lower whereas if you are a small account holder and want to grow your account quickly in order to be in a position where you can trade full time and more conservatively then you have to take more risk.Well that's the way I see it anyway - I'm in what I call 'account building' mode thus i want to grow my account as quickly as a I can (without taking undie risk or stupid risks / 'punts') when I can then be more picky / conservative and take merely the high probability setups on the longer timeframes...but until then I need to grow my account and the two ways of doing that are to trade aggresively or to save money until you have a big account...the latter is not an option for me. Anyway I've rattled on a bit there...but my point is don't be swayed by what I do as you need to find out what suits your personality and risk tolerance and have your own individual plan. Also make sure you read J16 posts...In particualr I would definitely recommend you start with James posts...I arranged for them all to be printed and bound when I first started learning J16 and reading his posts should switch a big light on as he really explains things well and shoes you how simple trading can be. |
Apr 24, 2010 12:52pm
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A review of last weeks trading and my trading so far will come later (I need to actually review the first lol) plus some charts on my thoughts for next week...should defintiely be interesting to see if we can have some follow through on Friday's move or not. I've made enough money now to pay for the next 6-9 months of living costs...that's everything I need and so I've withdrawn this money and the money that I have left I will trade with for the next 6-9 months in order to make enough to pay the following 12 months living costs and leave me with some more money to trade during this time. I've worked out that I need to make on average 130% per month in account growth over the next 6 months in order to pay for the following 12 months living and leaving me enough left over to trade with that I would then need to make 20% per month from there on in for the following 12 months to pay for the next 12 months and so on. I prefer working in 12 months slots as you can then work / trade without time pressure and plus it's what the wife will agree to lol. Not sure if that makes sense...but it's my plan and this is my one opportunity and chance I am going to have to make enough to be able to call myself a full time trader. I've proven to myself that I can do this, after all my account was over 357% up in 3 weeks of trading...I am not the perfect trader by a long way, I make a lot of mistakes as far as I'm concerned but with the knowledge I do have I know I can do this...failure is not an option the only thing that can stop me achieving these aims is myself. The new account size I have is very small...I'm talking micro lots size. I'm still developing my plan and strategy and will post this when complete.
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Apr 24, 2010 12:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
A review of last weeks trading and my trading so far will come later (I need to actually review the first lol) plus some charts on my thoughts for next week...should defintiely be interesting to see if we can have some follow through on Friday's move or not....
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Not sure what is happening with my posts...but all paragraph splits are deleted and I end up with all my text in one paragraph? |
Apr 25, 2010 7:55am
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Right...gonna post some charts which have setups that interest me or areas to watch during the course of the week...these are from pairs that aren't on my intra-day watchlist and at this stage I'm not considering correlated pairs etc. just looking for individual setups on individual pairs.
1. NZD / USD
0.7200 has confluence of round nuber, TL, PPz and 61 fib retracement...a good area for a touch trade short IMO..will set pending order tomorrow during European seesion if thi area isn't reached during Asian session tonight.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 25, 2010 9:58am
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Apr 25, 2010 9:40am
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2. NZD / JPY
BUOB on weekly and a breakout on the daily...wait for a retrace then long to get in on the weekly BUOB @ a discount.
Conflcits with the touch trade in (1) though unless we have a major move in U/J.
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Apr 25, 2010 9:44am
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3. CAD/CHF
Continuation BUOB on the weekly having broken above a PPZ...scrolling down to the daily you can see the PPZ and looking at the 1HR you can see a great entry with a BUOB.
I'd hardly ever take a weekly setup...I would just bear it in mind during the course of the week and try and get into the expected direction on a lower time frame and the 1HR bar is a great setup.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 25, 2010 10:11am
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Apr 25, 2010 9:51am
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4. GBP / AUD
Pin bar off a strong PPZ and in fact following a false breakout of the PPZ. FTA is very close so would only take this trade if there was a retrace first towards the PPZ...even though if we retraced that much there is more of a risk that we will get a breakout towards the upside.
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Apr 25, 2010 9:57am
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5. SGD / JPY
Weekly continuation BUOB above PPZ and TL. Would look for a retrace to the TL / PPZ i.e. breakout and retrace for an entry...looking at the 4HR chart you can see the likely area to go long.
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Apr 25, 2010 10:02am
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6. USD / NOK
BEOB on daily time frame having broken a very clear and defined PPZ. Entering on a retrace back to the PPZ would be an obvous entry point which also has the 150EMA as potential resistance.
Another way of entering this would be to enter on the break or retracement but with the SL just above the PPZ...it is more likely, considering how the close of the bar is near it's low that the break will come first (unless there is a gap up on Sunday open) and thus having the SL just above the PPZ would make sense as if the PPZ gets broken there is a very high chance IMO that the BEOB will fail.
FTA is also a decent distance away...overall I'm quite liking this setup at the moment.
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Apr 25, 2010 10:05am
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7. USD / SEK
BEOB on daiy timeframe. I'd only consider playing this if we got a retracement first to the PPZ marked - as the FTA is so close playing a break makes no sense to me from a %R perspective.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 25, 2010 2:03pm
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Apr 25, 2010 10:08am
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8. CHF / JPY
Twp potential trade opportunities on this pair IMO...firstly an immediate long as we have broken the PPZ and have retraced back to it and a touch trade short - with my preferred area the 88.50 area which has fib, TL and PPZ confluence
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Apr 25, 2010 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi LJ,
Whilst you are doing the "Exotic" pairs, could you please give us your view on AUD/NZD?
Cheers
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Sure...here are my charts for the weekly and daily Tf on this pair.
I actually played the weekly pin on this pair but got stopped out because my SL was just above the PPZ but it was too close and the spread stopped me out which is frustrasting considering where price is now.
This pair is pretty choppy (look at a monthly chart) and you can see from my chart that we are sitting on weekly support now with a PPZ just under. This is even clearer from the daily chart...thus IMo we are in a sideways range at the moment so if I were to be trading this pair I've be playing the ranges until we got a breakout...but I dont trade this pair intra-day.
Another thing to look at would be the AU and NU charts...look and see the directions you expect each pair to go next week. and which pair has least resistance above it...froma quick look @ both AU and NU I'd say I would be bullish both of them but there is decent resistance not far above on both of them so I would expect the range on A/NZD to continue for the time being. you could also take it further and look at a chart of Gold which influences AU and also look at economic news releases this week to see what major moves could move each pair... |
Apr 25, 2010 1:19pm
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With regards my intraday watchlist i.e. GU, GJ, AU, AJ, EU, EJ, UC, CJ, U/CHF, Gold and Oil I'm kind of in waiting mode on these at the moment.
I'm not keen on playing the current trends as we are near or at major PPZ areas on in particular AJ, GJ and CJ and thus until we get above these areas my bias would be short as near the highs as possible as there is more room to the downside. If we break above these PPZ areas then I'll be looking to get in on the breakout otherwise we could be in for another rangy week.
With regards equities...dow obviously broke above it's 4HR and 1HR resistance on Friday...however Dow is @ major PPZ on monthly, weekly etc and 61 fib retracement with major divergence on the 4HR and 1HR and this is why I am cautious about the Dow breakout and thus why I am doubtful that we will have breakouts on the xxx/jpy pairs next week.
Therefore my plan is to short AJ, GJ and CJ near the highs with SL above the highs. With regards the other watchlist pairs:
EU - 13400 / 13500 are confluence areas for short entries + U CHF is @ PPZ, TL and fib confluence support at the moment
EJ - not keen on until near 127
GU - not keen on until 1.5450 or a retrace back to the rising TL
EG - a nice BUOB on daily from a swing low @ PPZ with divergence...not sur ehow EUR can be stronger than GU next week but we could get a push to the FTA at least.
G/CHF - BEOB off PPZ...would have preferred for price to close below the PPZ and there is not much room but if it breaks there is a high probability IMO that price will reach the FTA.
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Apr 25, 2010 1:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yep totally agree with you about overtrading...will post more about this over the weekend.
With regards A/CAD...I nearly took a touch trade off that obvious PPZ area on Friday but decided against it.
My view on the daily pin is a follows.
1. Look at the monthly and weekly time frame...the first thing I notice is that this pair is pretty choppy. We also have a BEOB on the weekly...although not a great one and not one I'd play myself as a continuation bar.
2. The pin itself is a good pin in terms of size.
3. With regards divergence I dont see...
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Another angle to look at this is the PPZ I didn't mark on the original chart. Now for me the only way to take this trade from making it a reasonable %R perspective is to play a break of the oin abr with SL just below the first PPZ or to play a long from the PPZ (if price doesnt break the pin bar first) with SL below. |
Apr 25, 2010 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Week 3 130 trades 49.2% win rate, 11.70% account gain. Total account gain is now 357.74%
A really poor week relative to previous weeks...I'm taking far too many trades and not being picky enough. I'll do some more detailed analysis / thoughts and some changes / goals for next week over the weekend.
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Overall over 3 weeks of trading I took 261 trades with a win rate of 59.4% and total increase in account balance of 357.74% risking a maximum of 3% per individual trade. closed balance chart attached.
I'm starting again witha much reduced new balance as mentioned previously so am now trading microlots size and thus am only using Alpari and Oanda to trader and therefore can no longer trade Oil...though will still use it in my analysis for CAD.
My third week of trading contained far too many trades...I became less picky and over traded far too much. it was however IMO a much tougher week to trade than my first two weeks...pairs were very rangy and quite choppy compared to the trendy first two weeks. You do get weeks when trading is more difficult than others but as long as the you maximise opportunuities in the real easy good weeks then this takes care of the bad weeks...though being able to stay clear of choppy markets and preserving capital is a must.
Personally I think we are in for another choppy week. No real economic news to speak of on Monday or Tuesday with the real data coming on Wednesday and Thursday for US in terms of FOMC statement and interest rate decision and Unemployment data. Thus the major news dominating the markets will be Greece bailout news and corporate earnings IMO. This could lead to a choppy market as risk appetite swings back and forth.
As I stated yesterday I want to aim for 130% per month over the next 6 months...which I know is achievable if I stick to what I know and trade without emotions affecting my trading, I made 357% in 3 weeks so 130% in 4 weeks should be fine lol. The key to this is consistency though consistency making 130% wont be easy but I'm confident (though a tad nervous) that I can do this.
My plan for next week is as follows:
1. Stay calm and focussed at all times.
2. Be patient and disciplined.
3. Be as prepared as possible...knowing what areas I am looking to trade well in advance with pre-thought out plans
4. Trade major PPZ areas with heavy confluence in ranging markets using split trades (one half to take profit at obvious PPZ and the other half to leave to see if can catch a runner).
5. dont trade counter trend unless a strong reason to do so...cathcing a trend and adding positions is key to obtaining big %R gains.
6. Risk max 5% per trade - being pickier I want to be able to risk more per trade.
7. Make sure I check 4HR bars on my non-intraday watchlist...as there are some good PA opportunities on these pairs..A/CHF BEOB on Friday was a classic example a slam dunk of a trade.
8. Zoom out and always look at the bigger picture
9. If indecisive about a trade dont trade it.
10. If trading well and going through a good winning streak then up the risk.
11. If losing and not picking winners then stop, take a break, preservation of capital is rule number 1 in trading.
12. Trade my charts and not my PnL
13. It's better to take a few trades and manage them well than to take too many trades that you cannot manage.
14. Be quick to change trading directions when my charts tell me too...eg. EU on Friday....hit PPZ had HH and HL bang should have been going long etc.
15. Post less on FF...I will be posting only when in waiting mode and at end of day / quiet 'lunch' sessions.
15. Get regular exercise and plenty of sleep.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 25, 2010 2:07pm
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Apr 25, 2010 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Sounds good mate if you need help on material let me know.
Wish you many pips and good luck |
Thanks, will do |
Apr 25, 2010 2:45pm
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Right... I've been through all of the daily / weekly setups and well I like nearly all of them, but decided to set the following orders @ market open (as long we dont have significant gaps). Most of my funds are in alapri at the moment (just waiting for sme more funds to be transferred to Oanda) so have to wait until 11pm local time for market open. Oh and now all my funds are in USD as a) I find it easier to calculate lot size and b) I reckon GBP will weaken against USD over the next 6 months.
I'll use a trade manager EA to manage these trades where needed, also these pending orders leave a buffer above / below the relevant PA bar and also take into account spreads...some Alapri spreads are scandalous on these pairs IMO.
1. NU - short @ 0.7195, SL @ 0.7130.
Take 50% profit @ FTA - 0.7185 and move SL to BE on reaminder.
2% of balance @ risk.
2. NJ - long @ 67.11 SL @ 66.70 - 2%
3. SGD / JPY - long @ 68.18 SL @ 67.95 - 2%
FTA @ 68.74, Second target 68.95 will take some profit and move rest to BE @ FTA
4. USD / NOK - short @ 5.8760, SL@ 5.9000 - 3% @ risk.
FTA @ 5.8520 take 2/3 profit and rest to BE.
5. G/CHF - short @ 1.6444 SL @ 1.6655 - 3% risk
FTA @ 1.6405, take 50% profit and mov rest to BE.
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Apr 26, 2010 2:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Right... I've been through all of the daily / weekly setups and well I like nearly all of them, but decided to set the following orders @ market open (as long we dont have significant gaps). Most of my funds are in alapri at the moment (just waiting for sme more funds to be transferred to Oanda) so have to wait until 11pm local time for market open. Oh and now all my funds are in USD as a) I find it easier to calculate lot size and b) I reckon GBP will weaken against USD over the next 6 months.
I'll use a trade manager EA to manage these trades...
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Decided not to take NU touch trade...price looks too bullish to me. Alerts set for NJ and SJ
Got in early on USD / NOK daily BEOB...the way I see it if the PPZ can hold then we should hea down so havea pensing order short to add @ the break of the BEOB
Got in early on G/CHF too...bit risky and not looking good.
Same on EG
Also decided to take A/CAD long ...if I was awake I would have got in earlier but decided that it looks like left eye will hold and thus price should reach the FTA...was long @ 0.9271 with SL@ 0.9230 TP @ 0.9300 on oanda. |
Apr 26, 2010 3:15am
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I'm staying out of GJ and GU and EJ for the time being just watching these...GJ CJ and AJ all made new highs but with divergence same on Dow...thus I do expect some sort of reversal but picking when is tough...could just enter shorts as swing trades but not keen on that at the moment. Instead I've gone short AJ with stop above recent high and long UC with stop below PPZ below.
These are risky counter trend trades...but I'm not comfortable going with the trend when we've made new highs with big divergence and with dow showing the same. Thus I'm dipping my toes in the water so to speak and testing couple of pairs to see if I can pick a retracement - only small positions with tight SL.
I'm also bearish on EU below 13400
I dont see anything else that screams trade me on my charts at the moment.
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Apr 26, 2010 3:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I have the exact same EG trade going.
Too bad it's not going as great as my GU long off of daily PB. I was hoping for a H1 PB off 61.8 on EG but it didn't happen. Well, too bad. Maybe we get a double bottom. Then the PV is in play. |
Not sure how I managed to miss that GU pin bar...spent ages looking at charts over the weekend but somehow missed that...I would have taken that too, it's currently @ a trouble area.
I'm not holding up much hope on EG...thinking of cutting it soon...EU is static with so much concern over Greece still and GBP is realatively strong. Cant see GBP falling faster than EUR unless we get some news.
If you took GU long why did you take EG long? |
Apr 26, 2010 4:24am
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Should have taken the NU touch trade after all...missed the 30min BEOb too...but taken a break off the support / valley level.
Same story with EU was watching price to get back to 13400...didnt happend and now brokej the 1HR 'box'.
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Apr 26, 2010 5:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Are you in Cad/Jpy ? Unfortunately I do not have this pair.
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No, I'm in U/C instead.
What broker do you use that doesn't have that pair? |
Apr 26, 2010 5:21am
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Stopped out on G/CHF and E/G not looking good. Also surprisingly stopped out on USD / NOK...price completely revresed very quickly...maybe my SL is quite close to the PPZ but was not expecting that retracement. So 3 losing positions to start the new account lol.
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Apr 26, 2010 5:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I still have 20p on EG.
EJ is looking ripe for a buy. But Euro's getting pounded so bad...
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Yes 125 is daily PPZ...but that strong bearish bar makes it a no go for a touch trade...I'd wait for PA.
I'm still short NU, EU, AJ and long UC and have a pending short @ 67.48 on NJ - BEOB off a daily PPZ |
Apr 26, 2010 5:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Hi Neutro,
why? what do you see ? It looks to me it is in the middle of nowhere IMO
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see chart...round number and PPZ.
EJ is between two strong PPZ the upper one is a weekly / monthly one. I wanted PA to take a short and got a 1HR BEOb but was away from comp so missed it. |
Apr 26, 2010 5:39am
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Keep an eye on NU and UC...both bounced of major PPZ and confluence and on my Alapri feed we are looking to form BEOB and BUOB on 4HR in 20 mins...
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Apr 26, 2010 5:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
125 is major PPZ. Also 365 EMA on M30, and EU just hit 50% and RN and reversed. Good for a few pips. If EJ turns into an H1 pin we might have something further down the road although I wouldn't risk 2% on it. |
yep both EJ and EU @ obvious support areas...stronger on EJ. I took half profit on EU and moved rest to BE here.
Could have taken touch trades but I'm trying to be a bit more conservative on start of new account and wait for the best setups |
Apr 26, 2010 5:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I got in just above 1 on UC, based on H4 BUOB. You have better positions than I do. We're still making HH and HL and Oil is forming an H4 BEOB (but it's heading straight into PPZ...)
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Yep I saw the oil BEOB too...when Oil reaches the ppz I'll watch UC carefully.
Gold is @ a PPZ too thats why I took some profit on AJ...got one position left and will add if gold breaks the PPZ or trade both. |
Apr 26, 2010 5:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Very nice Nasir
Exactly what I would have done if I wasn't being cautious today.
A good start to the day / week for you.
What people should guage from these posts is that spotting major PPZ from the daily / weekly / monthly is very important and how reliable these areas are to trade whether you wait for PA or not.
These higher frame PPZ act like a brick wall for price... |
Apr 26, 2010 5:59am
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Some follow through would be nice...
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Apr 26, 2010 6:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Keep an eye on NU and UC...both bounced of major PPZ and confluence and on my Alapri feed we are looking to form BEOB and BUOB on 4HR in 20 mins...
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Poor closes on both...NU was more of a doji and I really wanted UC to close above 1.000. |
Apr 26, 2010 6:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
You know that one will hurt my EJ don't you. 
You'r again going against me??
Remember what happened on Friday with EU.
Don't make me increase my lotsize LJ.
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Ha ha Oh yeah. I'm not in EJ...was in EU took half profit @ RN and rest to BE...like you waiting for it to reach the PPZ below to go long.
I'm out of all xxx/jpy shorts now , only had AJ open and until gold breaks it's ppz I'll wait.
So go dow soar higher !
Ha...I kept my positions open on EU over weekend and all worked out ok today so we both won on that it seems
I'm on micro lots now so won't be going against your 6 figure lots! |
Apr 26, 2010 6:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
PV is in play after next HL (hopefully).
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Good entry IMO...I've got a 4HR bearish pin bar on GU and with EU bouncing of round number shoudl certainly get some upside action with EG. |
Apr 26, 2010 7:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Now that's a risky one guyz.
I just have a monthly PPZ here on my side.
Lets see.
.
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I somehow missed that
Thanks, pending short duly deleted! |
Apr 26, 2010 7:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Nothing wrong with going short below 415.
It's just a Pivot and it's flipping the price.
One way or the other.
. |
Yeah, I'll go short if we break but current order was based on pin bar with SL above and price is heading up and will break left eye by looks of it so delete and reasses when / if we retrace back to the PPZ.
Just been over all my charts again to make sure haven't missed any other major PPZ areas lol. |
Apr 26, 2010 9:04am
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Took 2/3 profit on A/CAD long @ 0.9300 and moved SL to BE+1 on remaining 1/3.
Went long UC again am still long E/G and went short U/NOK again @ the daily PPZ - annoying my SL was too close and got stopped out on first trade on this pair.
In waiting mode on everything else.
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Apr 26, 2010 9:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Why long UC again? (you did good apparently, but I'm wondering why)
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retrace back to PPZ...though I got a rubbish spread on this pair...cant wait until I get more funds into my Oanda account.
Also went short gold just now and took half profit on USD / NOK short and remaining hald @ BE+1. |
Apr 26, 2010 9:34am
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False break on Gold...
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Apr 26, 2010 9:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
You'r using 2 MT4 for so many pairs.
How do you keep up with that..
.
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lol. I used to use just fxPro for charts and a micture of alpari, fxpro and oanda for trade.
Now I use both alpari and fxpro for charts and just oanda and alpari for trade. I only use fxpro for 4hour bar closes plus futures and gold and alpari for everything else.
Anything that I see is approaching an area I want to watch on the non-majors I'll just make a note and set an alarm then I can put it up on fxpro whilst having my normal intraday pairs on alapri.
fxpro 4hour closes 1 hour before Alpari so gives me a different perspective...it's not as bad as Mike on J16 I think he has 4 different brokers so he has a 4HR bar close every hour! |
Apr 26, 2010 9:42am
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Once again looking like UC can't close above 1.0000 on an 1HR or 4HR bar. Trading within a 30 pip range at the moment...breakout coming?
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Apr 26, 2010 9:48am
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Daily PPZ...been waiting for some PA...finally got it...
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Apr 26, 2010 9:54am
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Missed GJ...waiting on UJ
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Apr 26, 2010 10:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I d like to jump on the discussion cause I am also evaluating brokers.
It looks like FxPro is very good for majors and not as good on exotics.
I. E
On my 2 platforms
GBP/USD FxPro 1.5 IBFX 4
AUD/NZD FxPro 10 IBFX 7
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Yeah I'd agree....a spread of 4 on GU is ridiculous!
Whereas on my oanda I have 1.6 GU and 5.0 A/NZD |
Apr 26, 2010 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I downloaded Oanda demo. The interface is really terrible. I did not even understand how to change the candles color and make them green and red. What a monkey am I ? |
The charts are awful...but once you get used to the interface it's pretty straightforward.
Mine are green and red but just tried to find out how to change them and I have no idea lol...Best bet it to read the manual and to work your way through how the platform works and the user preferences etc. |
Apr 26, 2010 10:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Interesting.
Correlation are not working at the moment.
One of them have to corect themselves either the pairs or DOW, Gold.
.
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C/J and A/j have been and are looking weak...but they are both near resistance highs...ej is at PPZ support and gj broke above resistance earlier...all a bit of a mess from a correlation perspective.
Oil @ PPZ and Gold oscillating above and below PPZ and dow is up but still with divergence... |
Apr 26, 2010 10:43am
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I'm now short uj, cj and aj on the xxx/jpy pairs.
Decided against gj (trying to play fewer pairs and increase risk) and waiting to see if ej can break the ppz.
If oil can hold below 84.50 and gold can get some momentum south below 1153.50 then this should translate into some momentum for these trades...
Dow is stalling @ 61 retracement of long term move.
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Apr 26, 2010 10:58am
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On slow days like this catching a strong trend is like gold dust so you gotta just play the ranges. Exited AJ, CJ shorts and UC long and now long AJ and EJ
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Apr 26, 2010 11:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
On slow days like this catching a strong trend is like gold dust so you gotta just play the ranges. Exited AJ, CJ shorts and UC long and now long AJ and EJ
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The reason I was saying this is that I've not played the ranges too well. With no economic news it was obvious unless we had some unexpected news that today was going to be slow and low volatility, but sometimes I still try and catch runners and try to catch early breakouts on spikes and add into current positions too early when what I should have been doing is just sticking to single risk positions playing the range extremes.
E/J and G/U were the best ranges to play today IMO. |
Apr 26, 2010 11:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
It is a very boring day.
I d like to take the opportunity to share my view on G/U daily.
Next important level as said before, is 1.552.
If she breaks it, than there is a lot of space above it. The next resistance 1.5815. This is also 61 Fib level that is typical of GPB.
I noticed that E/U reacts more on 50 Fibo, whilst G/U likes 61.
On the down side 1.538 is a strong flipping PPZ at least for the last 4 wks.
To me the key level is 1.552 and PA over there. I ll just wait, we are almost there.
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I agree with those levels...I also have a minor PPZ @ where price is now. |
Apr 26, 2010 12:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Nasir,
you should claim some money out of LJ.
He is using your copyrighted grey charts: LOL |
haha...Nasir you might as well just send me over a copy of your MT4 profile lol.
It's what was already on my Alpari template so much have copied them a while ago...I like it though makes it easier to see the PPZ areas compared to my previous charts. |
Apr 26, 2010 2:42pm
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Right I'm done for today...this market is as exciting as watching paint dry!
In closed positions my account decreased by 2.46% today. The main damage was taking a full loss on G/CHF (I swear this pair has something against me!) and USD/NOK - cos my SL was too close. Both were 3% losses. Other than that I tried to catch runners and added to original winning positions on the likes of UC and we had false breakouts so suffered some decrease to provits.
Need to learn when market is prime for a breakout and today certainly wasn't one of them. Playing the ranges was the name of the game today, in partilcuar EJ and GU. Got some of EJ late on but left GU alone. Still have open positions - EG long and Gold short.
I'll leave my charts open and have set some alerts just in case we get some moves otherwise I'm done for today and will look at daily closes later to see if there is anything I like.
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Apr 26, 2010 2:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
GC has something with you, EG has something with me.
Check out AUDNZD. |
Yeah I reckon...though EG owes me some pips too...from last week.
Saw that we were on PPZ when checked last 4HR bar. Two big bearish bars prior though means I'd be cautious about going long, plus there is more upside room on NU than there is AU IMO.
Lastly, I'm never keen on trading these towards end of day when the major move is likely to be in Asia...Unless I have a very clear SL and TP target I dont enter trades 'overnight'.
I'll assess this again when I look @ my end of day charts and deicde then whether I want to enter a trade with a definitive SL and TP. |
Apr 26, 2010 3:27pm
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Well my alerts went off...seems we are getting a move in CAD...I'm long UC and short CJ....gold is moving down too...got a pending order short on AJ upon a break of 4HR support.
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Apr 26, 2010 4:53pm
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Played this badly today...
Had a gap on opening @ the PPZ so a grat opportunioty to go short at a discount to the daily BEOB...I had a relatively tight SL and got stopped out when price quickly retraced back to the PPZ and made a high above the bar to the left.
Went short again...but showing my lack of patience in a slow movng market I took full profit at the previous bar lows...price has unsruprisingly gone where I expected it to go now...a lack of patience cost me profit here.
Also did the same on EG...had an entry near the double low and got out for some profit earlier...price is now rising nicely.
Being patient when in a trade is something I must improve on...easy $ lost today because of this today....an amateurish mistake really.
Not taking any daily trades...am long UC and EG short CJ, AJ, GJ, Gold
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Apr 27, 2010 2:31am
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Morning everyone.
Half of my AJ and CJ shorts hit their TP overnight of 93.65 and 86.90 overnight so stops @ BE now.
Just having to update my intraday charts as my MT4 deleted my profile...grrrr.
At first glance xxx/jpy's look heavy as does oil, dow and gold.
But dont second guess the trend though go with it until price shows you otherwise.
Back in a bit
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Apr 27, 2010 2:55am
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As I said above...IMO all xxx/jpy are looking heavy...look @ 1hR charts and you'll see bearish triangles...a descending TL i.e. LH against a PPZ area. I've got pending shorts below the PPZ.
Current positions are long UC - (this pair is so tightly wound up at the moment), short CJ,GJ,AJ,AU, gold and long EG.
Look at EU too...
Anyone know how to change colour of your sell / SL lines that appear on charts?
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Apr 27, 2010 3:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You can't change the color of sell/buy orders, but you can on SL and TP. right-click on the chart, click on properties and modify the "Stop levels".
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Thanks ... it was the coulour of the sell / buy orders that I specifically wanted to chage...lol |
Apr 27, 2010 3:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
It would be a busy day for Pound.
Play smart guyz.
. |
Great charts as always Nasir |
Apr 27, 2010 3:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
GJ and GU target hit.
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Big BEOB on FTSE futures across RN on 30min TF... |
Apr 27, 2010 4:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
G/U is again (guess where) 1.538. She is going to hang in there till news.
Anybody thinking about going long ?
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NO!! |
Apr 27, 2010 4:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I put 2 magenta lines on them LOL. Let's wait
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Look @ the FTSE Futures chart that Nasir posted earlier too...waiting for all the planets to be aligned. |
Apr 27, 2010 5:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
NU, breakout, pullback, PA. Perfect.
edit: well, I see everyone's talking about it. Maybe that's what makes it perfect. |
I was waiting for a touch trade @ 0.7172...but doesnt look like we gonna get down that far. |
Apr 27, 2010 5:09am
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Just checked my 4HR closes on Fxpro...4HR BEOB on GJ DBHLC on GU and 4HR BEOB on FTSE.
Just need a catalyst to provide some mometum...
Also found these...
Lastly, I'm looking to short E/AUd @ 1.4500...merely a trend trade @ resistance.
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Apr 27, 2010 5:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Just checked my 4HR closes on Fxpro...4HR BEOB on GJ DBHLC on GU and 4HR BEOB on FTSE.
Just need a catalyst to provide some mometum...
Also found these...
Lastly, I'm looking to short E/AUd @ 1.4500...merely a trend trade @ resistance.
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ok maybe not |
Apr 27, 2010 5:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
what was wrong with 192.
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nothing...it's not a pair I really trade intra-day I prefer AU...so I look for the ultra 'safe' entries. |
Apr 27, 2010 5:21am
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Another example of poor spreads on non-majors..
EUR / NZD - alpari 15, fxpro 15, Oanda 5
Unfortunately no free margin on oanda so will have to pass.
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Apr 27, 2010 5:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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I'm with you my friend...though I wont curse G/CHF...can never get a winner on that pair lol. |
Apr 27, 2010 5:41am
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Some current trades...
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Apr 27, 2010 5:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
While we're on the cursing and blaming topic.
Closed all my EG longs with insignificant gains compared to the drawdowns...
Yesterday's UC full loss would have been a winner today, and that breakeven EG yesterday would have been a real runner today. Well, another two under the belt. |
I just closed my EG too for a very small profit compared to the drawdown.
Getting a profit out of a bad trade is not the worse thing in the world
I closed my other EG far too early yesterday too.
UC has been better took regular profits yesterday and left one position open. |
Apr 27, 2010 5:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok lets turn the direction now.
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I'm trying too...load up more!
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Apr 27, 2010 5:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
So you'r against me again hunh.
lol
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Nope.
GBP news in 6mins
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Apr 27, 2010 5:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
This one could be a nice R:R trade.
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Definitely...shame I can no longer trade oil |
Apr 27, 2010 6:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok i am hating the 1H close.
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Not ideal...but the markets are turning and FTSe is holding support...watching carefully though. |
Apr 27, 2010 6:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok one last attempt.
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I'm in too...but oil, gold, dax dow and ftse all look heavy...no significant bounce in any of them which says to me not enough buying strength.
It's a been a very good morning overall though...a bit like yesterday but with more momentum....played the ranges much better today as not looking for runners. |
Apr 27, 2010 7:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
This one moved the market.
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Apr 27, 2010 7:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Thinking of BE+? |
I'm waiting to see if can break 1.5344 on GU and GJ I'd be taking profit near 144 if we got there.
Didnt get great entry on GU exited longs from the first PPZ and then got in 3-4 pips too late on bounce from lower PPZ.
Other current positions: long UC, short CJ, short AJ, short EN (found some margin as closed gold short), short UJ. |
Apr 27, 2010 8:45am
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Went short gold (on oanda - break of support) and added to AJ / CJ shorts.
Still in GU long exited gJ near 144
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Apr 27, 2010 8:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I like it.
If we could get a high above 351 (in this current hour) it would be a nice HL's HH's pattern. It would also put off TL break + retest trades.
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Sounds good to me |
Apr 27, 2010 8:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
USD CAD |
Dunno oil not moving?
I'm not complaining though |
Apr 27, 2010 9:01am
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Taken profit on UC long...and left one CJ position going and short GJ, UJ
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Apr 27, 2010 9:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Long on Ascending TL ?
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This is my chart...PPZ and RN looks better. Though I'm finishing early today so not looking to enter anymore intraday positions |
Apr 27, 2010 9:21am
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sh*tty spreads again...I pressed the button as soon as it hit the PPZ and thats the spread I get...cant wait until I can move away from Alpari
Took EU long too...but on Oanda this time.
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Apr 27, 2010 9:23am
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Greece 2 year yeilds now @ 15% lol You can tell what the markets think of the bailout!
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Apr 27, 2010 9:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
What?
Can you elaborate.
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Greece 2 year bond yields...15%, new high. Think portugal reached a high as well. The higher the soveriegn default risk the higher the interest payment. Greece yields are highest in the world at the moment apparently.
I think that's it...I'm not an economiscist - in fact I cant even spell it! lol
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Apr 27, 2010 9:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Is Alpari GMT+0?
I have completely different charts from you since you start posting the "grey thingy" LOL |
Er...dunno...all I know is the daily bar is 11pm local time and fxPro 10pm so I guess GMT -1? |
Apr 27, 2010 9:44am
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Right gotta go out now...only open positions are GU,EU and NU longs.
A much better day today, though not without room for improvement. How on earth I took a loss on E/N short I don't know and closed CHF/JPY short too early.
Might get time for some trading later but will only trade if some obvious quick range trades or some daily setups.
Have alerts set for EA and NJ for short and long opporunities.
Just added up all the results and today made 25% exactly and account is now @ +21.90% (need to make 23/24% per week on average to make my first month goal of increasing account by 130%).
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Apr 27, 2010 9:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Up or Down?
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I think you need some more orders to help it on it's way |
Apr 27, 2010 10:49am
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Back much earlier than expected ..whats holding GBP down whilst everything else soars.
Found this in Alapri 4H charts...
Still long EU, GU, NU and short UC
Equities and commods are soaring for some reason...in particular gold |
Apr 27, 2010 10:58am
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Very volatile price action at the moment...dont know why?
GBP is not really moving in either directon despite whipsaws by other pairs...I'd like to think it's cos I can read markets well but I exited UC, EU and NU just before we got a retracement...pretty lucky to be honest.
Doesnt seem to be any basis for big gold, oil and equity moves...in situations like this I'm always very careful with open positions.
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Apr 27, 2010 11:00am
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Right enough playing around let's shoot up... |
Apr 27, 2010 11:19am
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S&P cutting Portugal debt rating appears to be the catalyst
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Apr 27, 2010 11:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
What was that???
you almost stoped me out.
Don't do this again.
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Doh...and I set my SL in wrong place...about 1000 pips below...a frantic moment of trying to get 'filled' on SL that's hurt me! |
Apr 27, 2010 11:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Doh...and I set my SL in wrong place...about 1000 pips below...a frantic moment of trying to get 'filled' on SL that's hurt me!
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That mistake damn hurt...got out 10 pips lower than what I wanted...made up with some quick scalps on GU and xxx/jpy
I'm out of all trades now and just wathcing markets and goldman grilling |
Apr 27, 2010 11:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
That mistake damn hurt...got out 10 pips lower than what I wanted...made up with some quick scalps on GU and xxx/jpy
I'm out of all trades now and just wathcing markets and goldman grilling |
I had SL set @ 1.3518 instead of 1.5318 doh doh doh...GU losses represetned 4.1% of account... got back 3.1% on scalps so not too bad...could have been a very expensive mistake! |
Apr 27, 2010 11:42am
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.
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Apr 27, 2010 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
He is smiling.
I just know that.
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lol...the traitor...what happened to 'all for one and one for all' lol |
Apr 27, 2010 11:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I know it is risky but I am hanging in there. My SL is 1.5285 just below the support at 1.5294.
200 pips daily range |
What on GU longs...I'm for you |
Apr 27, 2010 11:53am
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Greece soveriegn credit rating cut to junk status....nice!
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Apr 27, 2010 11:55am
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If only i'd kept my xxx/jpy shorts on from this morning...would have doubled my account today I reckon. You need luck to catch those moves IMO...I had not obvious price action on my charts to suggest these big moves were coming.
I'm on the sidelines just watching...dont catch a falling knife and all that.
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Apr 27, 2010 12:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
DJ would have been real nice to play. I was watching the first BEOB and I just couldn't pull the trigger. (again...)
Maybe I'm getting bored with demo (no real incentive, even if small), I may go back to live next week.
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That spike up would have hit SL on both BEOB's though.
When I want to demo I use Oanda with real money just the tiniest risk possible and then I know it's realy money and real data feed. |
Apr 27, 2010 12:11pm
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Anyone wanna go long?
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Apr 27, 2010 12:18pm
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At a critical point on equities and commods now.
Gonna be fun looking at the daily charts tonight!
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Apr 27, 2010 12:58pm
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I went long EJ, EU, AJ, AU, GU, GJ, CJ short UC when we hit support on dow, ftse, oil futures and gold.
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Apr 27, 2010 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I went long EJ, EU, AJ, AU, GU, GJ, CJ short UC when we hit support on dow, ftse, oil futures and gold.
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Oh forgot to add...on demo
Haven't got enough confidence to load and fire after we have big moves down like that....yet. |
Apr 27, 2010 1:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Don't like doing things after the fact but if you guy's are comfortable with it I think I can do a little commentary of how our GU longs got messed up.
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That would be great Nasir |
Apr 27, 2010 2:11pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Please tell it is a nice PB. Retrace looks ok.
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It has a TL and some support below the pin bar but I'd never take a pin bar after that big move down...look at what you are trying to reverse a very big bearish bar. Also think about the structure of price...it is more likely that this bar has been formed from profit taking by sellers rather than fresh buyers coming into and over powering sellers. If it was a really heavy confluence area i.e.a brick wall then maybe but it's not.
This is just my opnion but I consider setups like that high risk counter trend trades that have a low probability of succeeding. |
Apr 28, 2010 2:38am
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A good day yesterday...could have traded the bounces of support but took these on demo and all worked out nicely, next time they'll be taken on my live account.
Some posts here that outline where I and probably Nasir learned about using Dow to give us a heads up to expected xxx/jpy direction. Have to say that I didn't quite put it all together, I knew we were at 61 fib retracement and monthly,weekly PPZ on dow as per my previous posts...but kind of ignored the pin bar on dow and the likes of A/J that formed, this really was the signal to load up shorts and to be honest if it had all clicked it in my head I would have loaded up a lot more thatn what I did, opportunities like that are very high probability and worth risking the maximum that you are prepared to risk on a trade.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=62075
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=62077
With some late in the day trades and GBP losses overall my new account increased by 22.71% yesterday and is up by 19.67% overall - remember with new account was aiming for 130% per month...well done some proper compounding calculations:
- 122% per month
- 22.1% per week
- 4.08% per day
Over a 6 month period in order to achieve my initial aims
Just looking over charts now, but with no news until FOMC tonight I'd expect a quiet ranging day after yesterdays big moves unless we get anymore unscheduled news. |
Apr 28, 2010 3:11am
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Talking about range trades...have reviewed my non-majors etc and look at the ranges these pair are in...lastly E/CAD looks good for a short @ the TL/PPZ to get in with the trend.
With these pairs I would be looking to enter trades at the range extreme and then just leave them until we reach the oppaite end of the range i.e. minimal intervention or watching.
G/AUD looks like a breakout ready to occur soon
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Apr 28, 2010 3:26am
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Equity and commodity charts...
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Apr 28, 2010 3:38am
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It is difficult to know whether price will travel in a tight range today, whether we will have decent retracements or just retracements to minor S/R before another sell off in xxx/USD and xxx/JPY.
I'm dipping my toe in the water and gone short AU based on resistance and gold @ resistance. Also looking for UC to get nearer falling TL to short with oil @ strong support.
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Apr 28, 2010 3:50am
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Break and retest of falling daily TL...
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Apr 28, 2010 4:04am
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I have a feeling it's gonna be dull this morning.
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Apr 28, 2010 4:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning.
Funny before you posted the chart I had exactly the same U/C order. to the pip!
Yesterday move was not driven by technical reasons, S&R did not work. It was more a fundamental issue with Greece.
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Oil broke support so cut UC and reversed with a long pending order above the 1HR bar highs
The move xxx/jpy move down was forseen by technical's hence why I was in the shorts yesterday...the strength of the move was caused by fundamentals...but technicals showed that sellers were gaining control, fundamentals caused more sellers to rush in and a break down |
Apr 28, 2010 4:52am
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a few trades...plus something to watch. Got a splitting headache so in bed just casually watching markets
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Apr 28, 2010 4:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
yep... Being so dull, I missed my entry on GU @ retrace of BEOB and pullback to TL. Stop would have been at BE by now.
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nice...missed this one too..
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Apr 28, 2010 4:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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That was one nice pinbar...I love it when you get a big pin bar on the 5min TF @ PPZ or TL.
We're still all waiting patiently for you G/U analysis by the way
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Apr 28, 2010 5:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Closed this position. Did't like 1H close. Sold GJ instead.
I will do it LJ when i'll get some time.
Btw i hope you people are not expecting some holy grail formula lol, it's the same things i've already said.
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Just joking around with ya.
FTSE and DAX broken their support...could sure do with dow futures following to assist the xxx/jpy shorts (I know you know this etc...just posting for others to see) |
Apr 28, 2010 5:18am
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We were posting a while ago about EJ and the cup and handle formation...we have now broken the handle or bearish flag...which is a strong indication that price should continue downwards.
If this plays out I'm gonna try and hold onto one position from this break whilst adding positions on breaks of support, taking partial profits along the way...if the market moves in a way that permits this type of trend trading of course.
P.S. anyone on here play COD - MW2?
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Apr 28, 2010 5:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
We were posting a while ago about EJ and the cup and handle formation...we have now broken the handle or bearish flag...which is a strong indication that price should continue downwards.
If this plays out I'm gonna try and hold onto one position from this break whilst adding positions on breaks of support, taking partial profits along the way...if the market moves in a way that permits this type of trend trading of course.
P.S. anyone on here play COD - MW2?
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Oh and my long term targets on EJ to the downside would be 121.75, 120.00 and 113.85. |
Apr 28, 2010 5:34am
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Targets for stop and reverse on equity markets...
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Apr 28, 2010 5:36am
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IF EG is still @ it's falling TL when GU hits here then ...well you know what to do by now.
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Apr 28, 2010 5:42am
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Hidden divergence @ a PPZ...just need dow futures to behave
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Apr 28, 2010 5:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
My son does what do you need?
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lol...just wanted to see if anyone plays cos I do. |
Apr 28, 2010 6:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Hidden divergence @ a PPZ...just need dow futures to behave
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It didn't behave |
Apr 28, 2010 6:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'd be careful with that short LJ, you're in a bad spot to be holding shorts right now... Are you ready for another "hope mode"?
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It didn't line up so no short.
Other shorts cut as soon as UJ broke above PPZ and dow didnt break support.
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Apr 28, 2010 6:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Plus...
I loaded up on AJ...PPZ and 50% fib plus EMA's
Definitely trying to usde Oanda for these trades...5pip spread on alpari 2.1 on Oanda |
Apr 28, 2010 9:10am
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Looks like I slept through some nice retracements...some nice peaks and valley type opportuntities on the 30min / 1hr time frame.
Trying this long cos @ support with oil at resistance
Germany annoucement aboout their internal meeting regarding their share of the aid package soon...this could cause some volatility...cant imagine they will say anything other than be supportive which would be bearish usd and jpy
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Apr 28, 2010 9:23am
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being cautious about shorts at the moment with US about to open and Germany / IMF news due soon.
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Apr 28, 2010 10:05am
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similar on NU and proxy pin on EJ...missed the EU short @ PPZ but in on this
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Apr 28, 2010 10:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I should have sold EU at 1.325: |
1.3265 would have been better....no worries they'll be plenty of other opportunities. Why did you not take it, doubts or just miss it? |
Apr 28, 2010 10:16am
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couldnt close above TL and PPZ...that says market is weak to me.
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Apr 28, 2010 10:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Hi LJ,
I have a question regarding this post you wrote yesterday. When you say it's dangerous to take a reversal trade after a strong move does this include patterns like DBHLC/DBLHC too or only pin bars?
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Well if it was a DBLHC then the second bar would by virtues of a DBLHC be bigger than the previous bar?
I dont trade DBHLC and DBLHC that often to be honest...just prefer pin bars, outside bars and IB's (but only @ key locations like BRN or PPZ and then I4B are my preferred option).
What I mean is when analysing pin bars or outside bars etc. is too look a the size of the bar compared to the previus bars for outside bars if the OB encompasses 3-4 previous bars then even better, with a pin bar you ideally want the pin bar to be bigger than the previous bars in size.
Everyone trades differently and I am all about location first and PA second...but in the setup above the location was not that great so taking what is essentially a small pin bar at an ok location (i.e. not a lot of heavy confluence) will hardly ever work when you've got such a heavy bearish bar just prior to it. You want to see a reaosn for price to suddenly reverse and for buyers to come in and gain control from sellers and that pin bar combined with that location was never gonna be it....you have to be careful when looking @ pin bars cos if they are small or more importantly are not at a great location they are most likely to represent a brief pause and some proft taking before the trend continues....and thats exactly what happened yesterday...after big moves sellers take some profits and cause a pin bar rather than what we want which is sellers taking profit and fresh buyers coming in and overpowering sellers to form a pin bar and then off we go...there was never gonna be a load of buy orders at that level on the setup from yesterday.
I mean it's all about location and all we had was a TL and minor support...thats not a heavy confluenced location thats gonna reverse the strong selling strength. For touch trades I'm looking for a really heavilty confluence area...somewhere which everyone will be looking at and where it is obvious they'll be a load of buy/sell orders so BRN, strong PPZ (the higher the time frame the better i.e if a daily PPZ on a 1Hr TF), fibs, divergence and aligned with equity markets etcc. then thats a great touch trade...and a lot of the time you'll get some PA to confirm the move after the touch.
Hope that makes sense...if not give me some time and I'll post later with some examples and annotated charts...well maybe tomorrow as we have FOMC tonight and I wanna trade around then if we get the expected moves.
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Apr 28, 2010 10:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Just put some orders in so we can break this 1091 |
I reckon we'll stay in a range until FOMC unless we get some news out of Europe. |
Apr 28, 2010 10:59am
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TL, 50 fib, ppz, with trend...took this on oanda
pretty much flat everywhere else. Have a few shorts but only small and mostly positional.
When I've got a bot more money...I'm defo gonna get a new computer, me and this one fall out every day. The fan keeps going mental and it keeps restarting itself randomly...grrrr
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Apr 28, 2010 11:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I saw you re starting using EMA 150 and 365. It amazing how they often work as S/R.
I used them since Jan, they are an additional point of confluence.
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yes someone gave me a hint about these recently and they certinaly do seem to be be a good additional confluence tool from what I've seen so far. |
Apr 28, 2010 11:31am
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Another afternoon another european country gets downgraded...spain downgraded to AA...just in time for my AJ short and EG short short to take off
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Apr 28, 2010 11:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I had to listen to Wayne he sold at 1.32. 73 pips in 5 mins |
Not bad...when in the zone he trades very well...he has a lot of experience and can read the fundamental position very well IMO and pull the trigger with a lot of confidence. But he is conservative, if you have a decent size account then trading that style is one of the best methods as you dont need super returns per year etc.
I got EJ instead of EU...short from 124.10 and 86.90 on AJ |
Apr 28, 2010 11:43am
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This was EG trade...took some profit @ FTA
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Apr 28, 2010 11:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I got EJ too, but not as good as you. TP 123.3 ?
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123.25 was my TP...I'm trying to get out of positions ahead of FOMC...left 1/3 open as I more of a position short...if we close below the rising TL then it confirms bearish flag break if we close above then it was a false breakout |
Apr 28, 2010 12:31pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I reckon we'll stay in a range until FOMC unless we get some news out of Europe.
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Still in the range...all equity futures still sitting on top of support...not much change today...spain downgrade didn't have the same affect as Greece news yesterday.
Gold breaking above daily resistance and Oil trading in a range.
I'm not taking any more trades now until after FOMC, I reckon we'll just range until then now US lunch and all.
I'm not experienced trading FOMC statements so will most likely just watch price but any bounces in EU and EJ and I'd be tempted to sell...I think the key things people will be looking for will be any signs of future rate hikes or whether they say low rates for an extended period like last time and any comments on asset sales - they wont change interest rates. Risk appetite is defintely off the agenda at the moment so any dovish comments and I think we'll see a sell off in dow futures and flight to safety of USD and JPY. But that's just my novice theory...
NZD rate announcement and statement later too. |
Apr 28, 2010 12:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Thx for the detailed answer. I don't trade exactly the same method like you do but my and your system have a lot in common. My biggest problem atm is to distinguish the good from the bad set ups and I think your answer helped a bit to overcome this problem.
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you're welcome...happy to help / offer my view where I can
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Apr 28, 2010 12:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
you're welcome...happy to help / offer my view where I can |
Following on from this...can you see the differences between the pin being formed (if it closes as a pin) and the pin that failed from yesterday... |
Apr 28, 2010 3:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ on your suggestion I started to read ROASO. Amazing book!
I would like to be able to read the tape as he was. |
I didn't like it when I first started reading it...found it a bit dull, but then I realised the message behind the trading techniques and really got into it. You can also learn from his mistakes etc. It's amazing how he managed to corner the markets in some of the commodities...some very shrewed trading at times. Being able to wina lot lose it all and make it back again shows real confidence in your trading techniques and he obviously risked a lot as he made a lot very quickly. I havent quite finished it yet got about 40 pages left...but that book really made me realise a few things.
When market is trending...trading like on the P&V thread is a great way of riding the trend and this is in essence what Jesse was doing reading the tape and adding positions along the way, look at some of Nasir's charts on the P&V thread if you havent already and you can see some of those trends - how profitable those positions are...just requires patience, discipline and confidence and a trending market lol. But I love his saying of 'path of least resistance' and testing the market to see if he is right in his tradnig rationale with a small order then quckly ramping up as price goes his way. Of course he large orders that would be enough to move individual stocks at times but he was very shrewd in the way he played some of those stock and commodity trades. |
Apr 28, 2010 3:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Talking about range trades...have reviewed my non-majors etc and look at the ranges these pair are in...lastly E/CAD looks good for a short @ the TL/PPZ to get in with the trend.
With these pairs I would be looking to enter trades at the range extreme and then just leave them until we reach the oppaite end of the range i.e. minimal intervention or watching.
G/AUD looks like a breakout ready to occur soon
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Now that's what I call a breakout! I've noticed that some of the moves you get on the non-majors can be very fast and extreme...going to start incorporating these more and more into my trading, just need to be careful I dont have too many pairs to play with and mis-manage trades or miss things. |
Apr 28, 2010 4:54pm
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Increased account by 5.49% today - lots of BE even trades, account is now 26.24% up from the start on Monday...ahead of target.
Was a bit too cautious today...still lack confidence to just close my eyes and pull the trigger on what my charts tell me without over thinking things. Plenty of opportunities to load up xxx/jpy longs and with dow futures holding strong support this was the obvious trend for the day.
Need to forget previous performance and just start each day with a blank mind...not the easiest thing to do though.
Still want to try and get into some longer term trades...some general trend following trades with wider SL based on daily TF rather than lots of intraday trades.
Back tomorrow |
Apr 29, 2010 3:12am
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Went long gold @ support and trendline - on Oanda
Found this BEOB on NZD/CAD...with big bars like this I try to enter before the bar breaks..so I've got one position at the first PPZ and will enter another half @ the upper PPZ depending on how we approach it. The only thing that makes me nervous about this bar is that it was formed during NZD interest rate statement i.e. it was a spike caused during news rather than a true reflection of the balance between sellers and buyers over a 4HR period. I might come to regret this trade. Taken this on Oanda and on demo fxpro account.
Other things looking at are 1. EUR / AUD looking to sell @ PPZ, TL and fib confluence and 2. AUD/NZD BUOB but would want to open on retracement a bit and then would look for it to break hard above the highs and EMA...but like the trade above this was formed suring news so not keen to have two NZD trades on the go.
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Apr 29, 2010 3:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning
GU at support and BUOB H1. Doubt on FTSE
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Morning - I opted for GJ..BUOB, break of TL and for an EG short. |
Apr 29, 2010 4:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Checking "all planets" (as you said), it looks like a bullish day
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The market looks indecisive...nothing really moving on equity markets...just ranging. We are just above support levels on all equity futures, gold in an uptrend with hopefully a confirmed break above highs and oil needs to break resistance just above so we can get CJ and UC moving.
Any Euro news regarding Greece or other PIIGS etc will drive risk appetite which will drive the markets at the moment. US enuemployment news this afternoon might cause some movement if the numbers are different to that expected.
I'm not really watching the charts that much at the moment, have a few trades on the go but a times like this it's best to stay patient and disciplines and just wait.
I'm long Gold, AU, EJ and short N/CAD at the moment...took profit on EG @ retest of TL and on GJ at first trouble area...at times like this I reckon it's best to take profits as unlikely gonna get runners as more likely price will be choppy. |
Apr 29, 2010 5:06am
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Stop on gold moved to BE...A/N not looking good and realised not got enough margin to short it from the top PPZ. AU and EJ broken up...pretty obious it was going to do so...could have taken a few more but taking it nice and easy at the moment.
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Apr 29, 2010 6:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
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Charts can speak a thousand words... |
Apr 29, 2010 6:40am
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stop and reverse on AU
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Apr 29, 2010 6:49am
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price missed by sell orders on AU, EJ and EU by a few pips.... |
Apr 29, 2010 7:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Don't worry my friend,
Planets are not in line yet.
at least for me.
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Yep the 'big one' hasn't lined up yet
Just scalping a few pips until we get there |
Apr 29, 2010 7:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Ok don't miss this time.
Ohh btw i can be wrong.
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I've risked the house on it
hehe |
Apr 29, 2010 7:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
my EU Short is ready at 1.3315
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really?!?!? lol |
Apr 29, 2010 9:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
My alarm on A/U went on!
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lol mine too..woke me up from my nap
It's days like this when the best thing for me to do is to set alerts and go and do something else...avoiding the tempation to trade for the sake of it and talking yourself into trades or scalps...patience is a very important attribute in trading.
N/CAD trade came back now...wish I'd had enough margin to enter the additional position at the top PPZ...money should be cleared into Oanda account anyday now. Gold got stopped out @ BE and exited EJ and AU longs a little earlier for a bit of profit.
Entered an AU short...but only a small position. |
Apr 29, 2010 9:09am
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UC is the next potential setup...
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Apr 29, 2010 9:27am
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Went long UC and short EU. Exited N/C @ BE...expect CAD to weaken now.
I also went against every xxx/CAD pair I could find on demo...just for fun (preparing for the little trading competition coming up on myfxbook - testing different strategies to see which one works best).
We have bank of canada chap speaking in an hour so hopefully he'll help us along too.
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Apr 29, 2010 9:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi guys didnt post for some time wanna learn good i am studying james 16,and strats thread. When finnished that i do some more.
This is a trade i just took with oil my favorite.
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Replace the M's and R's with a fib retracement ...look @ Nasir's post above |
Apr 29, 2010 9:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Wait I need to close my short. LOL
A/U you entered without PA confirmation, just touch and go ?
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Yep...only small...not the perfect setup |
Apr 29, 2010 9:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
E/J BEOB...what do you think?
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Not on my feeds?
The 365 MA stopped it getting to where I wanted to short it - 125 |
Apr 29, 2010 9:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
But the candle on the 15 min stopped at my tl and therefore I prefered a G/U short.
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Ahh yes I see now...dont really trade that TF...only if @ a strong PPZ etc then I might scroll down to look for PA. I reckon we'll push through that TL and support below in a bit....
GU was the better immediate option though IMO. |
Apr 29, 2010 9:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Can't get better than this.
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Indeed it cannot...Dow might be presenting us with a opportunity soon too, though xxx/jpy aren't aligned as nice as the UC / Oil combination. |
Apr 29, 2010 9:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
BTW alot depends upon 1H close for oil and cad.
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Yeah and I'm not liking how oil is right now
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Apr 29, 2010 11:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
OIL, First Trade on FxPro and it is not looking good.
They are probably laughing at me, welcome to another genius!! |
Teh market likes to get us worried first...I reckon it's coming back , could be wrong but I reckon it will drop. |
Apr 29, 2010 11:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
FTA on A/U please this graph is so messy. 0.9220?
Tx
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9255 it just hit it |
Apr 29, 2010 11:41am
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Takne some profit off the table on my previous trades. With oil and dow futures breakinf their confluence areas...I woudn't expect these to turn into runners...moved SL's up on the remainder.
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Apr 29, 2010 2:45pm
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Still have open positions as follows:
short - AU,AJ, EJ, EU, UJ,CJ
Dow has really soared as has oil. I tihnk this market is stretched and we'll get a pullback. xxx/jpy and xxx/usd aren't following the dow up and the dow is essentially out on its own as dax plus ftse futures aren't following. All seems a bit disconnected.
Not looking for runners with these trades though - will be quick to lock in profits.
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Apr 29, 2010 4:19pm
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Still have positions open...SL and TP set for the night and just reviewing daily charts before shutting down for the day.
Was going over my results and stats and realised I'd got my formulas all wrong for some bizarre reason. So, starting again, in order to achieve my 6 month first target I need to make the following:
- 4.4% per day
- 21.4% per week
- 137.5% per month
and restating my reuslts so far:
Day 1: -3.68%
Day 2: +34.07%
Day 3: +7.54%
Day 4: +3.27%
Total Account Gain is 43.43% on closed positions
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Apr 30, 2010 2:28am
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Very nearly took this last night...but I decided that as it hadn't closed below the round number I'd give it a and just watch...it went to exactly where you'd expect it to go. On the on-majors I look at daily and 4HR charts only...and if I see a setup I'll most likely take full profit @ the FTA unless we arein a deep trend and I feel there could be a chance of a runner.
Exited some of my shorts this morning for losses and left others as is. Not around much this morning but will be back before US GDP. The market looks bullish to me with Eurozone concerns easing, but US GDP will be a big driver of this afternoons action, until then I'd expect the market to move slowly with an upward bias after yesterdays strong Dow move.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Apr 30, 2010 2:39am
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Apr 30, 2010 3:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
great work!! I saw that and didnt act holding onto my shorts. price looks like having another crack at .94 now it has broken above the channel. To admit you are wrong, cut the loss and act quickly enough to get a good position in the opposite direction is a psychological challenge. well done
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On that occasion I was long from break of the resistance and took profit at falling TL and reversed for a short...so not quite the same. I agree, being able to cut a loss and reverse it psycholgically touch it requires mental toughness to realise very quickly that your original analysis was wrong or is no longer valid and the right analysis is now the reverse. Being able to act quickly when wrong or conditions change is important on intra-trading, but not always easy mentally. Trading what you see at the current moment and not holding onto what you saw previously is key. It's all psychological and emotions that stop you acting like you should. |
Apr 30, 2010 4:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Hi lj,
that's live or demo?
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Live...given myself 6 months to make enough so I can then consider myself a full time trader. |
Apr 30, 2010 5:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Nice and very impressiv!
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Thanks, though the losses from yesterdays short will cause a dent in account today thats for sure. |
Apr 30, 2010 8:01am
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back at home ready to trade the US morning session. It's a friday and end of month and US plus CAD GDP figures...volatility springs to mind lol.
GBP has been weak this morning...GCHF had a great 1HR pin / 4HR BEOb which I would have traded if around. Other than tat just waiting for US news to get out the way and see what US open brings us.
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Apr 30, 2010 8:12am
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Some charts...
Us GDP will really be the driver this afternoon I reckon. An outstanding figure and with it being month end we should see increasing risk appetite and thus a weakening USD and JPY after the whipsaws and weak figure and risk appetite will disappear and we'll see see a stronger USD and JPY - flight to safety. Month end will heghten volatility so I'd expect some moves today.
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Apr 30, 2010 8:16am
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Summary of current positions - short EU, AU, AJ, GU, GJ and long UC...some underwater and close to SL with GU/GJ doing ok. Suffered losses on AU, SJ, EJ, EU shorts over night / this morning.
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Apr 30, 2010 9:23am
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Apr 30, 2010 9:34am
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Apr 30, 2010 10:06am
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If I just traded on days when there were strongs signs of a sell of in equities and thus strong jpy and usd and used increased risk I'd probably double my account every 2 weeks
Current moves were very predictable...I doubt we'll get strong moves we saw earlier in week when we had euro news to help us on the way but this will make up for losses from last night. |
Apr 30, 2010 10:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ,
IYO what was more important factor the negative GDP or the already declining DJ?
Or again a combination of the 2 planets with GDP being the switch.
TX
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Technically there was a lot of divergence across the charts and with pairs being at or near highs this was a warning to expect a pullback. The dow went up a hell of a lot yesterday wihtout taking the ftse or dax with it and you saw my divergence dow chart above. fundamentally US GDP not as good as expected but not bad to be honest, CAD numbers we worse.
It is also the last day of the month lots of month end flows and lots of volatility.
That might be a bit of wishy washy answer but there were some signs that we would get a sell of...was it a picture perfect setup...definitely not and it was 24hours later than I expected from a technical perspective but there was going to be a retracement by the divergence across the board at or near highs.
I've taken some profit added a couple of reverse positions and have set final TP then I'll call it a day It's not a day to get huge runners as we'll probably bounce of support levels now.
I've defintely madde up for yesterdays losses and made a little profit so happy with my first week. Will update stats after all positions closed. |
Apr 30, 2010 12:03pm
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Apr 30, 2010 12:09pm
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Last lot before I close for the day, week and month |
Apr 30, 2010 12:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
And what a month, huh?
Wish I had Nasri's and your analytical skills. Slowly getting there, with a big help coming from your journal.
Keep up the good work, may you have another (and another and so on) month like this. |
Yeah it's been good if I add up all my results etc.
It takes time and a lot of dedication to succeed in this business...I started 'trading' 3 years ago and it was noly this year that I started to become consistently profitable. Everyone's learning curve is different - mine was probably rather long compared to Nasir...but of course I'm still learning and still need to improve.
Thanks, I hope so...the next 6 months are make it or break it for me and failure is not conceivable.
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Apr 30, 2010 12:49pm
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Right closed positions now and doubt IO'll trade any more today...will have quck look after US lunch but unless something really good crops up I'm done of the week.
Totted up my results and for today I made 1.68%...all this afternoons trades just made up last nights losses. I could have left yesterdays trades open as they would have ended up in profit and I know some traders use pretty much the same lot size for each trade and only exit when completely proven wrong i.e. willing to suffer drawdown and although I knew we re very likely to see a drop today...I got the timing wrong yesterday as Dow went far higher than I expected and I jkust cannot sleep with drawdowns so have to let trades hit SL and then re-enter today.
A good start to first week on new account...I still maintain that trading conditions now are tougher than they were in february and march but we had a really good day with the drop earlier in the week where I made decent gains...but I could have made double that.
I've not had any decent runners this week as the market is still relatively choppy so had to do more trades than I would like and cut them quickly but I feel more in control than the previous two weeks and less stressed. I feel that I've been in and out the whole time and must mkae sure that when the market becomes more trendy I dont get into this habit. I'd much rather play trends and just leave them and add in further positions when viable than ben in an out between S/R levels. But if I can continue making these returns then when the market becomes more trendy I'll clean up.
Week 1:
167 trades
60.5% win rate
Account growth +45.8%
Remember my 6 month goal involves making a return of 24.1% per week compounded for 6 months.
Dont want to focus on weekly results going forward though, just focus on monthy results so I can concentrate on trading what I see on my charts rather than letting my results affect me.
Attached is closed balance graph - you can see how today's trades just about made up for last nights losses.
I have one open position...an EU short which is a small postion with a large SL so will be leaving this open for a bit.
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Apr 30, 2010 1:36pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
Not trying to tell you how to suck eggs but I believe You will trade much better without the pressure of this deadline you have created for yourself. You have made it much harder by adding this psychological line in the sand. It is meaningless. If you are able to consistently achieve only 10% of your target every month you would be able to get well paid work with any hedge fund Likewise private investors would be very keen for your services. The average return from these expert managers is a paltry 3.7% per year! and most people are relying on them...
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Thanks for the comments...all comments welcome
I actually thought someone would post a comment about that when I posted my previous post. I completely understand what you mean and although I have these targets...I do not let my targets affect my trading, trading your P&L instead of trading what your charts tell you has a negative affect on you results as you say. i've been through this pahse in my learning curve and it had a really bad affect on my trading results as can be expected as you obviously cut your winners short when you've made what you consider a decent dollar amount instead of trading your exit plan according to what your charts are telling you.
The reason I have a 6 month target is that this will give me enough to pay for the next 12-18 months living costs and leave me enough to trade for the enxt 12 months where my required returns in order to do it again for the next 12 months would be circa 20-30% per month. I have limited time and living funds hence the 6 months etc. Plus, this style of trading something that I dont think I could do over the long term...it can be quite stressful at times and I see it as an intense 6 months after which I can take it easier and trade less. I hope that kind of makes sense.
Obviously if career opportunuties or alternative options present themselves then that's a good option to have, though I'd never conisdered that to be honest just that I want to make enough to be able to trade full time without the need for a job ever again etc.
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Apr 30, 2010 4:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve0001
Hi,
I've been watching your thread too. Lots of the good information (Thanks!). I sometimes check to see what you're trading/watching. I figured you'd seen Joelcf's post over in the James16 chart thread where he pointed out the magnitude of 20% monthly compounding over time (20% monthly compounding of $500 would turn it into $10 quadrillion in 14 years). Obviously, it can't go on indefinitely (if for no other reason than your trades eventually start serious affecting the markets), but I wish you much success.
Steve0001
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Thanks.
No I haven't seen that post...well if I have I don't explicitly remember it from memory.
The power of compounding is under estimated by a lot of people. I think $10 quadrillion is a bit beyond my means lol. The most important thing will to overcome will be trading with a large account where money 'means more' andnot letting the potential fear of losing large amounts of money affect your trading etc.
All the best
Mark |
May 1, 2010 11:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Well the very first time when I saw you setting weekly and monthly targets I wanted to interrupt but actually I don't give advise to people regarding money....
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Yeah definitely agree...in that you have to trade what the markets offer whatever your targets etc. If the markets offer you 100% then take it if they can only offer you 10% then take it and dont go chasing the other 90% that isn't there.
I know I broke down the targets to a monthly, weekly and daily...but this was just cos I was bored more than anything. I have one target and that is the 6 month target. As Nasir was getting to, you can't trade by daily weekly targets etc...you have to just trade in accordance with your method and take what is on offer, which obviously varies from day to day , week to week, month to month etc.
I like to thinik I'm clever enough and more importantly experienced enough (having suffered many of psychologcial emotions that can have a detriment to your trading) to not let targets affect me...which is in essence trading your P&L instead of trading your charts/ method. The moment you do this you are doomed to failure - blowing up an account IMO as you will take profit too early when there is plenty more available and go chasing sub-trade setups in order to meet targets when the market isn't offering anything which will cause losses....when an inexperienced trader suffers losses they normally experience a range of emotions like anger, frustration, bitterness and go chasing the market to make up the losses often neglecting all risk management principles and blow up their account - I know cos I blew up my first account in a day...yes one day having traded for 3 months and doubling the account...I got cocky as the market was trending badly so it was so easy then I got losses and experienced emotions I'd not experienced in trading before and I fell into the sterotypical trap.
I think I have experienced the highs and lows...and mostly lows in trading thus far and this is what it took for me to realise how I needed to 're-wire' myself mentally or learn to control aspects of my personalilty / emotions that can have a detriment to trading.
I have a 6 month target for a reason which I've posted before and this is the ultimate first goal in my 'trading career'...but I do not trade my targets...I trade by charts and if there isn't the setups on offer that make me that target then so be it.
I wont mention daily, weekly, monthly targets anymore...I'll just state at then end of each week the current status of my account growth, number of trades, win ratio and balance graph together with an analysis of my performance and mistakes I will inevitably make along the way.
Oh and I appreciate all comments on this thread...there is a nice collection of people on this thread now which I am very gratefull for as I am FF in general. If anyone feels I am making stupid mistakes, have something to share to help, want to offer 'advice', am doing something wrong that I am missing etc etc then please feel free to post...I like to think I am open minded enough to listen.
The cost of living in England by the way is relatively high. The amount I need to pay for one years living costs is $36k and that is for a 'comfortable' lifestyle, not extravagent and not at it's most basic and thus the 6 month target is using all available capital I have to make this and enough to trade for another year. I feel this is achievable by following the methods I know without chasing the market and taking every pip / setup on offer...i.e. trading sensibly, calmly being patient and disciplined and using what is considered normal money management, trading 5 days a week for 6 months.
Have a good weekend all
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May 2, 2010 9:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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to be honest i really shouldnt have left thoseshorts open as i forgot i wouldnt be able to see sunday open. doh. to be honest as far as i was concerbed a weekend eu imf baiilout was priced in. im typying this pissed up but as far as im concerned the euro is fiucked borrowing 120bn is just deferring the problem nt solving it throwin denbt at a debt problem is just plain stupid |
May 3, 2010 6:50am
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I'm not looking to trade today...it's a bank holiday here in the UK and i've got a hangover lol..so merely having a passing glance at the charts once in a while. Havent donhe my review of the monthly and weekly charts yet either.
Closed EU shorts earlier so currently flat with no positions.
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May 4, 2010 4:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi guys,
did a touch trade today at the 87 lvl of oil but on the dailly whe might getting a pin what do yo guys think ?
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triple top with divergence...worked out well.
It has formed a daily pin but the FTA is very close. |
May 4, 2010 5:16am
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Not looking at that much at the moment as most pairs are in ranges or in between S/R levels. E/J is @ an intersting PPZ area.
Wenty short oil on demo and on live spreadbetting account as that's the only way can trade this and short AU.
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May 4, 2010 5:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Nice to have you back. I was getting bored lately, though markets have started to move in the last couple of hours. Went short S&P (a staggering 0.02 lots) and oil (beat your entry by a few pips on 0.01 lots omg ) on live and long GC on demo.
I think both oil and S&P (if S&P breaks the big H4 triangle) might be keepers. |
I dont have S&P but did short dow futures earlier on demo.
I'm cautious about the current down move...I think we'll get a retrace back up prior to US open and then who knows, but I dont think we have enough momentum / a catalyst for EU to break to new lows and GU / GJ to break down either. |
May 4, 2010 7:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I have a question regarding Oil and UC correlation. Does UC influence oil in any way or is it just Oil -> UC? From your past experience...
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Oil and CAD are correlated due to the fundamentals....obviously not 100% correlated though. I just look at Oil and Uc and CJ together for additional confluence. i.e. if UC is at a support level I'll ahve a look at oil and see where that is, if thats at a support level too then that's additional confluence. |
May 4, 2010 7:45am
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added another AU position @ 0.9170 and went short EJ @ 123.97.
Not around much this afternoon - got a trip to the dentist |
May 4, 2010 7:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Fta???
SOrry dont know what that is maybe when you have time you could explain me.
Thanks,
Lovejoy |
It's an abbreviation for first trouble area. As it happens Oil blew straight through that area and I went short |
May 4, 2010 1:47pm
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I missed most of todays 'sell off' - be interesting to see if we can follow through on this or whether we get a retracement in equities again like we did last week.
Closed my AU, EJ and oil shorts earlier...much too early, but I was very tired and had the dentist and just wasnt in the mood to trade (been up most of the night with toothache!) so I'm fine with that.
Gonna watch some T20 cricket and get an early night ready for a full day tomorrow.
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May 4, 2010 4:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
LJ,
I'm watching USD/JPY, trend line + S&R. Either it will continue upwards with the short term 1hr trend or we'll see a break down, which would work with the a double top on the daily.
1hr shown below...
Perk your interest any?
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Yep, I would have taken this trend trade if it was during the day, but dont trade 1HR charts where the trade will play out over night as I like to watch price during my intra-day trades.
95.00 is a key area with confluence of PPZ, 61 fib and BRN
All the best
Mark |
May 4, 2010 4:41pm
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Found this on my non-intraday list...BEOB @ swing high with divergence...target is the PPZ area below.
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May 5, 2010 3:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I guess we're in for another drop... One tiny push up and then slamming down...
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Looks that way. I went short gold and am looking for opportunities to get in with the trend on other pairs... |
May 5, 2010 4:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm content with what I took out of the market so far these days. I'm not so eager of jumping in the band wagon again. EU is approaching a major support zone.
I was waiting for a deeper retracement in S&P (1176 at least) to get in, but it failed... If it doesn't get at least there I won't short it for now. We'll have to see what 1150 will bring us.
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yeah EU isn't my preferred pair at the moment... looking @ CJ, AJ, EJ and GU which are all on verge of breaking support areas...I'm entering on a break of these areas.
Just a word of caution: just cos you took what you conisder a fair bit out of the market so far this week, dont not take setups you would have otherwise taken...this is trading your p&l...trading your charts will being you more success, you've seen that I've made over 100% in some weeks, in order to do this you need to trade like a robot taking the majority of setups that fit my criteria, if I stopped and focussed on the P&L at anytime I wouldnt have made those gains as it's easier to be content and stop once you've achieved a certain amount that makes you happy....not having a go or anything, if the market is ready to give bumper payouts then dont turn them away, cos there will be times when the market wont give you a dime |
May 5, 2010 5:15am
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I only use mini-sized dow futures from the US equity markets...whether 10918 will hold as resistance now is key IMO.
The way I use that is as an lead indicator to a potential strong JPY and sell off in xxx/jppy...this is the main usage. When YMMO is @ a atrong resistance then sparks normally fly...the strong xxx/jpy down moves we had over the last two weeks were forseen by looking @ YMMO...it hit weekly and monthly resistance and 61 fib confluence...it was only ever going down and taking xxx/jpy with it (and of course xxx /usd)...we even got a daily pin bar to confirm the down move that was coming.
I also use FTSE and Dax futures for direciton as to GBP and EUR...just like I use Oil for CAD and Gold for AUD. They are not 100% correlation buy by looking for strong PPZ / confluenced areas you can have a heads up as to what might be coming on the associated forex pairs and of course when we have alignment on a currency pair and it's associated correlated commodity / equity market this gives a trading setup more weight and a higher risk of success.
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May 5, 2010 5:20am
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I'm being very cautious in my trading at the moment as there are lots of economic news releases for the rest of the week along with the UK general election and the ongoing euro-zone problems.
We've had decent retracements from the main trend in equity markets...the question is whether this is a dip in the trend or a reversal. Personally I think it will come down to Euo-zone which is causing risk appetite to wane. Corporate earnings have been in 80% of cases better than analyst estimates, economic data has not been too bad but the overriding theme is risk sentiment and the euro-zone is driving that.
Most of the FX pairs I watch are in the middle of ranges, especially the xxx/jpy and I'm not keen on trading GBP due to the general election and EUR has had strong down moves so not keen on this either. I've done very few trades this week so far as I'm waiting for a clearer direction...first rule of trading - don't lose money / protect capital |
May 5, 2010 5:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Thanks to both of you for the explanation.
LJ 1 more question. You said your sentiment on A/U is bearish. in stead, I believe we all agree that Gold is in an uptrend (in every timeframe). Is this not a contradiction?
Pls do not take me wrong I just like to understand also because I find it very difficult to trade A/U.
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Good question!
here are my charts for AU and Gold...AU is in a bearish channel and gold is in an uptend. As I said before they are not 100% correlated and in fact from what I've seen these are the least correlated out of the correlations I watch.
The correlation can also go out of the window when the market moves on risk sentiment as Gold is considered a safe haven and thus will sometimes rise with USD and JPY as safe haven plays when AU will fall.
Plus Australia's own economic data will be a stronger mover of this pair than gold will at the moment.
The way I watch gold is to just look for where it is at strong support and resistance and bear it in mind when looking @ AU and AJ.
Gold actually formed a daily BEOB yesterday.... |
May 5, 2010 6:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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The point about the correlation with the VIX seems a bit daft IMO as whenever the VIX increases this is cos we are seeing a sell off in equities and thus xxx/usd and xxx/jpy so they would be all correlated not just A/U?
When equity markets are rising then AU normally out performs other currencies due to the interest rate differential and the reverse happens when equities are falling (generally speaking) as people unwind the 'carry trade'.
That's how I see it....I try not to get too deep into fundamentals as there are alwasy people that are going to know more than me and fuindamentals drive long term price action IMO whereas I'm trading intra-day charts etc. |
May 5, 2010 6:16am
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Oh by the way, I decided I would enter this competition:
http://www.myfxbook.com/contests
Starts in less than 2 hours, will see how I go with it as if it takes concentration away from my real trading I'll stop it, but other than that just going to trade like I do normally on this but being more aggresive on lot sizes and positions.
haven't given it much thought but I'll probably start with 0.10k lot sizes and concentrate on playing range extremes or in the direction of the trend only and thus allow the trend to get me out of any trouble. Plus I'll play some lower time frame scalps as well when the market is quiet.
I'd expect the winner to be making over 2000% increase in the month so normal money management goes out the window. Of course if I see a super setup with everything aligned then I'll take some big positions.
EA's are allowed too and I have a scalper EA loaded ready - basically if price is moving fast or I expect a strong reaction off a PPZ then I'll just load this and let it go...it opens multiple positions every tick with small TP say 4 pips (I define max open positions, TP, lot sizes etc). I've never used it on real account and probably never would, but might help in this competition. |
May 5, 2010 6:28am
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Another gold trade...took half profit at FTA earlier and got stopped out on second half.
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May 5, 2010 8:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
are you up 100%?
Euro's getting murdered. I'm wondering if the old saying "when there's blood on the streets, buy", because there sure is blood on the streets by now... |
lol...not quite...I dont think I can trade demo accounts seriously, I reckon I'll blow it up sooner rather than later!
E/U is at weekly support and dow futures @ support too...I'm not going long but I wouldnt sell at these levels.
We keep getting some short sharp moves then retracements back up today...pretty hard to trade IMO |
May 5, 2010 9:39am
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Wow this is one crazy market.
Cursing closing my CJ short earlier today...doh!
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May 5, 2010 10:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What do you do now LJ, sit on your hands? Because, even though we have some signals, is it a 'right' thing to go long? Or do we wait for larger pullbacks to get in with the trend?
Do you still buy at support?
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I'm on the sidelines...need to redo all my charts with todays moves lol.
Price has moved down a long way and is now retracing on most pairs...personallly I dont like trading markets that move quickly in both directions, I feel I'm not in control and prefer to just sit and watch. I have a small short on UC 1HR pin but that's it at the moment and have to dash out in a bit so will redo all my charts later and re-assess price action. I have a feeling the rest of the week will be choppy and fast like this.
I've been busy with the competition account though...I bet some people have doubled their account today...I've been trying to double it with some real aggresive lot sizes but ran out of margin at a crucial point...was 40% up at one point but the EJ reversal caused some daamge lol so slightly down now doh! |
May 5, 2010 2:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You'll be amazed when you'll see 2 or 300% |
The leader is on +105.71% having taken 4 trades - short eu, ej, gu, gj @ 0.50 lots per trade.
Second place is + 48.04%
I'm actually quite encouraged by that as I would have expected more than that to be in the lead...with todays move I would have expected someone to made a hell of a lot. I traded like an idiot on that account today, with 5 really heavy losses from over sizing my lots and am currently -6.3%...but i'll take it more serious;ly and take better trades with more reasonable lot sizes ... I sold EJ with a 1.0 lot size....not clever and got caught on the retrace! |
May 5, 2010 4:22pm
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I completely forgot about this trade lol...It's one on my non-intraday watchlist i.e. a pair I'll only look on fxpro 4HR and daily closes. set a sell order last night on break of the BEOB on my oanda account with SL above the high and TP the PPZ below...we had a nice size BEOb at a swing high with divergence....if it broke there was only one place this was gonna go.
In fact you could have put an order upon a retracement up to the PPZ for a better price and %R, but I preferred to keep this one simple and just increase the amount at risk. I'd take these setups every day, they havea very high probability of going to the first target area.
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May 6, 2010 2:25am
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Looking at charts this morning it's hard to tell what's going to happen...are we going to get another sell off or are we going to start retracing? The 'fear' and eurozone problems are still there and thus I would sell any retracements...I'm not taking any postions against the strong downtrend now...it's far too risky when we'[ve had moves driven by strong fear in the market...this is not a normal moving market which will respect technicals like normal, support levels have been blown through without any reaction over the last coouple of days.
I would note that dow futures bounced of support levels yesterday, so if this holds then I'd expect to see a bounce in xxx/jpy. EU is obviously weak and is reaching new lows even now. GBP will likely be volatile too plus there is plenty of economic news around today.
I really dont like trading in conditions like this...I'll be aimning for some quick scalps but nothing else is really jumping out at me.
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May 6, 2010 4:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Willing to go short EJ and EU on retest of last low?
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No...I want equity markets to hit resistance before I short FX pairs.
The market is very volatile and has essentially broken down over the last 2 days with panic selling...this also means we can have big retracements just as fast. The market wont move down muchy more IMO before a decent pullback.
I'd rather be cautious and wait for everything to line up before jumping in on a punt. I really dont like trading in these conditions so would rather save my capital.
Look at the equity futures...in particular dow and FTSE have bounced of support...until they hit resistance I favour a move back up.
Oil has held its support too at the moment.
We have plenty of news today and if positive and if the market calms about the eurozone then we could see a decent pullback....a lot of IF's there though, any more bad news and you can see how quick the market will fall.
NFP and UK general election tomorrow will likely cause more volatility.
I'm looking forward to this week to be over so we can get some more normal trading conditions next week and I can get back to making some pips.
Of course this is just my opinion...other people will thrive on these conditions...indeed if you'd just sold at the beginning of the week and left you'd have made a nice profit by now...but I prefer to have more control and markets like this make me nervous...I woill probably take some quick scalps but until things calm down and line up I'm not taking proper positions. |
May 6, 2010 4:29am
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May 6, 2010 8:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Get ready for the T20 LJ.
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I'm ready Nasir...should be good as long we dont get shafted by the D/L random run calculator method lol.
How's the trading going? I'm not liking trading in this market so have not traded much this week apart from the competition account which is er not going quite to plan lol. |
May 6, 2010 8:10am
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Let's see if we can get some upside momentum...
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May 6, 2010 8:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Pray for D/L it's could may save you (jk) .lol
Asif is coming to take care of KP if you remember.
Well i am on sidelines for now. I have found some "stuff" for R&D and also working on my psych now.
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Yesterday i got long on EJ and EU and i am on 120$ on that contest account. lol
Actually it got some time to figure out the way they keep on giving me margin calls and closing my trades. I mean you never get a margin call until you capital gets near 0 but they were doing it when my free margin got to 0.
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It's Morgan you need to worry about!
I'm down to $320 lol...yeah know what you mean got stung a few times when trades were closed cos of no free margin which put a big spanner in the works. |
May 6, 2010 11:05am
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Market still falling
Cant help but think i've missed a lot of opportunities this week with the strong moves...I just dont like markets upon which the movements are based on panic selling...fortunately i've not tried to pick reversals...that just a fast way to a blown account with the speed that the market is moving as technicals like S/R are just not respected like they are in a more normal market.
I've taken my slight frustation out on my competition account which is doing very badly lol...I just cant trade large lots and let trades be which is what is required plus the way they do margin calls really mucks up your trading plan. I'm waiting for one big trade to go all in...though only have leverage of 1:200 so it'll have to be a decent size move with very low drawdown.
Off to place my vote in a bit then get a nap as I wanna watch the results unfold in live time during the early hours...be focussing on the GBP reaction too. |
May 6, 2010 2:21pm
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Decided to take some shorts and get some of this breakdown action...got in on a GJ short and got 50 pips in excatly 5 minutes with a decent portion at risk!
But when I came to exit I got requoted 7 times on Alpari...it really f*cks me off it's not moving that fast, its a liquid pair, there is no slippage so why do I have to try and close my trade 7 times...got 15 pips worse off cos of it.
This market is really scary though...I'll be up all night wathcing the election results and how the GBP responds.
Oh and we have NFP tomorrow...lol
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May 6, 2010 3:16pm
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Went short GJ and long UC and short CJ in the last hour with decent postions sizes...won a decent amount in minutes...pure pure luck (and big balls! lol). Am falt now and not looking to get back in anytime soon lol! trying to get out of these trades was tough!
If only I'd had enough competition account left to go large on these doh!
This is how lucky I was:
CJ sold @ 7.44 @ 84.41 exited @ 7.46 @ 82.97 i.e. 2 mins later
UC bought @ 7.43 @ 1.0635 exited @ 7.46 @ 1.0710 - 3 minutes
GJ sold @ 7.08 @ 135.48 exited @ 7.13 @ 133.94 - 5 minutes
That's made my week!
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May 7, 2010 5:48am
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I'm flat and lib dems just said conservatives have the right to try and form a government as they had the most votes. Be interesting to see labour response...if they agree then GBP will rise...if they dont and want to try and form a coalition too then GBP will fall.
Not the result I wanted to be honest.
Had some small shorts overnight but took profit this morning when I had a nap. Not looking to take any other trades unless something really interesting comes up as prefer to wait for market to settle...US markets will be really interesting...interesting to see what NFP is and what the general sentiment is.
Was very lucky in making some great gains yesterday on 3 quick trades...that's pretty much made it a decent week for me.
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May 7, 2010 5:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Those were live? I thought they were in the contest.
If they were live, than gg |
Yep they were live and not in the contest! I cant trade demo accounts seriously...so have left it with a tiny balance now...will try and build it up next week when market is slower and more predictable. |
May 7, 2010 7:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Damn 1.45... 200p in an hour or so...
Look at it. It's just.. wrong |
lol.
I haver to doulbe check my charts as they are so spaced out now cos of the large moves I've got round number indicators 500 pips apart on xxx/jpy pairs looking squashed up now lol. |
May 7, 2010 9:52am
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I'm done for the week now.
Stats:
42 trades / 54.7% win rate / +13.7%
Overall account is up by 65.6%
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May 9, 2010 5:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Playing long term anyone? I'm willing to 'bet' big if things turn out like that.
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Interesting H&S...I'll look more into this later when reviewing my charts prior to sunday open |
May 9, 2010 5:21am
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My main focus over the next few days in the GBP. With it being my home country and the uncertainty over the future government this might create some very good fundamental trading opportunities.
At the moment we have a hung parliment and the lib dems and conservatives are intalks abot a coalition. To be honest I think it's a complete shambles the way it is being conducted. The Lib Dems manifesto is so far apart from the conservatives then any deal is purely in the interest of senior Lib Dem MP's getting seats or positions in the new government as they will have to forgo some of their fundamental beliefs and principles. The Lib Dems manifesto is so much closer to Labour so why are they not in discussions with them. There is no way they can both form an agreement without the Lib Dems change their fundamental opinions and views.
Also, all the talk is about Lib dems want electoral reform and are pushing this hard as this is an area the conservatives dont want...I mean get fu*king real, who gives a s*it about electoral reform when the next general election might not be for 5 years! The big focus should be on agreement on the economy, taxes, spending cuts and how to tackle the budget deficit!!!
At the end of the day the conservatives could only manage a 4% swing...despite the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s great depression...this reflects so poorly on David Cameron, he should have had it in the bag but the public aren't convinced by him and his party. He has not substance behind his plans on the economy.
The Lib Dems have to have agreement of 75% of their MP's in order to form a coalition which wont be hard if they have some senior positions in the new government i.e. personal interest, but it appears the Tories can just agree to the coalition without putting it to their whole party to consider...David Cameron needs to save himself and thus he'll agree to anything....he is in the spotlight and being hailed the herop etc by the press while they attach Gordon Brown but as usual the media have got it wrong and just pick the easy story and jump on the bandwagon etc.
I've seen supposedly market experts saying that unless we have an agreement on the new government structure before market open we could have a run on the pound, sell of in stocks and bonds...personally I just cant see how there will be an agreement as they wont be able to get the agreement of thier parties before then and anything that will be agreed will be rushed through for the sake of the markets only and not the nation as a whole.
I'll be watching the GBP carefully...we've seen that we can easily have some major moves in the markets from last week, it doesn't take much for the markets to tank...we've had a confluence of many events and the contagion affect from Europe was heavily undeerestimated. We've had the agreement to the Greece bailout...but this isnt solving the problem, more pictures of unrest in greece, rumours of downgrades or problems in the other PIIGS will cause the market to tank again.
I'll be watching GBP against a lot of pairs and if this uncertainty continues I favour E/G, G/A, G/N, G/J, G/U shorts. This is fundamental trading and not technical trading but I feel there could be some good opportunities to make a fair bit if the uncertainty continues for the next couple of days before a rebound when an agreement is made.
Anyway this is my thoughts and focus for market open. I'll review all my toher charts etc. later...though with the strong moves of last week, it's more of a wait and see approach at the moment...waiting to see how the market opens and responds etc.
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May 9, 2010 3:20pm
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It's gonna be interesting to see how the market opens tonight and more importantly how they react @ the european open tomorrow morning.
I've actually added some funds (savings - been allowed by the wife) to my account so my account is actually 10x more than what it was and now I can use FxPro again with mini lots so can trade the equity futures and oil. I've been spreading my account more evenly between FxPro, Alpari and Oanda and have converted some back to GBP from USD after the big fall we have had - I initially exchanged from GBP into USD @ 1.53 and changed it back again @ 1.47.
I haven't re-calculated my 6 month goal required account percentage increase...just going to continue trading like I have been.
Therefore I've been re-doing all my charts in light of having a new broker and last weeks large moves. I now have 28 FX pairs on FxPro to lok at on 4H and daily, weekly time frames and then my normal intra-dayt watchlist of EU,EJ, U/CHF, AJ, AU, GU, GJ, EG, UJ, UC, CJ and gold, oil and dax, dow and ftse futures on both alpari and fxpro. I've also been busy linking up an additional monitor so I can have alpari on one screen, fxpro on another and oanda on my netbook.
Right, gotta catch up on what the current status of the euro-zone is, economic news out tomorrow and anything that I like on my current charts to potentially trade @ market open. Will post later if I find anything interesting. |
May 9, 2010 4:50pm
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Looks like we will habe some decent sized gaps up on xxx/jpy and xxx/usd judging by my oanda prices...but I'm off to bed so will be back tomorrow
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May 10, 2010 5:08am
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Took a short and booked profit earlier on a break through this area...now short on the retest.
No other trades yet for me today.
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May 10, 2010 6:03am
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Selling a break of this pin bar...FTA quite close but hopefully it can go an reach the second target area.
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May 10, 2010 8:42am
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...and it went and just hit the second target area...unfortunately I co*ked up my exit and exited all at the FTA...I meant to close a 1/3rd of it wasn't concertrating and exited all...pretty frustrating to be honest.
I've had 3 small profitable trade then this morning with 2x gold and 1x EG winning trades and am now short EJ.
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May 10, 2010 3:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Hahaah din't even opened my mt4 today, and after looking at your EG charts i think twas worth it .lol
ok i hope England don't mess around today.
.
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An English style collapse coming Nasir |
May 11, 2010 2:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
go Morgan go
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You got lucky |
May 11, 2010 2:28am
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A quiet day yesterday, ended up at around BE after trying to short EJ and getting stopped out before it fell and trying to short YMMO on false break of 10670.
I am short AU from a position yesterday which is now in profit from a break of 0.9020 daily PPZ
After the short covering we had yesterday will we resume the recent correction...that will be interesting to see...personally I favour some consolidation unless we get some market moving news.
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May 11, 2010 2:38am
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Just went short EG on break of 1HR pin and also a boxed consolidation zone with SL just above the 'box' highs
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May 11, 2010 2:47am
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Chart off EG setup (took trade on Fxpro though as better spread)
Also short YMMO - lets see if this is a real break and retest or false break.
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May 11, 2010 3:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
That YM trade has the right ingredients to work, looking at the JPY crosses hanging on thin air.
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It does...but no momentum follow through is a concern...I think we are in for a choppy day ubless we get some unexpected data news, but I agree, I see xxx/jpy and dow going down from my charts, just trying to get the timing right.
My AU short is rebounding fast at european open but am holding onto it and moved stop down to 0.9050.
don't see anything else I like at the momenty and am out in a couple of hours for a bit.
The problem with last weeks moves is that it's hard to guage any PPZ areas...I've got daily and weekly areas on my charts but they are far apart from each other on most pairs and obviously they are areas and not to the pip so harder to get the timing right for a reaction, thus waiting for price to form 'new' 4HR and 1HR PPZ areas / to create a direction or range will help a lot.
I'm ignoring yesterdays moves to a large extent as short covering, the next few days will show the true direction - we will continue down or is just a correction in the uptrend in equities. As I said my bias is for some consolidation for a time and thus I'm not looking to take multiple positions on the expectation of a trend, more testing price to see if a PPZ area will hold and then take some profit at the next obvious target area...of course I will let my charts tell what will happen but those are my current thoughts. |
May 11, 2010 4:48am
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Was going to take some profit at the PPz marked but was not at my desk so missed it. Decided to leave as is as I expect some GBP strength once we get an annoucement from Lib dems of who they will favour to go into coalition with.
Personally I want labour but for my trade I'd want conservatives cos we could get GBP weakness if they choose labour as the conservative might still challenge and try and form a minority and plus conservatives and a lib dem coalition is considered better by the markets.
Gotta go out now unfortunately so set SL's and some TP's on all trades in case we get some decent moves over next couple hours
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May 11, 2010 8:18am
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Took profit in AU trader from yesterday and took profit in EG before the reversal and am back in again after the 1HR pin formed...could have taken a touch trade too. Still in YMMO short as hasn't moved much...hopefully US open will bring some movements |
May 11, 2010 9:09am
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EG short looks good taken some profit already and moved SL.
Haven't got a chart to hand but missed a breakout on 1HR Silver chart...was out when that big move happened.
NZD / JPY - 66.00 looks interesting as support level PPZ, RN and 375MA just under on 4HR chart. Ifnot then 65.00 is a good area too as a daily PPZ plus fibs confluence.
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May 11, 2010 10:24am
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Sold a break of this support...would have been much nicer if this had occurred when oil was @ 75.35 support too as we would have then got high momemtum move down...we still might do so but it would been more confluence for me to take more risk.
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May 11, 2010 10:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
But I don't see any AU - gold correlation. Is it gone? From what I see on the charts AU is just retesting the broken PPZ so you should be fine, but gold is shooting higher and higher.
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Looks like it ...gold is being bought as it's a safe haven trade and people just dont want to buy 'risky' assets right now. |
May 11, 2010 11:41am
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Went short on USD/CHf on a berak of the support.
Took profit on EG @ the round number...thought long and hard about that one as rumours of a tory lib-dem agreement and is rife which is causing the GBP to rise...but think teh real news will be annouced later tonight at the earliest.
Exited YMMO for a tiny loss much earlier when it broke bakc above the PPZ.
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May 11, 2010 11:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
That's one big pin on H1 dangling on PPZ that just went bust. Still holding short I hope. Not without a chill down your spine but you should be ok.
I guess you don't need me to tell you, but be careful of 1.0170ish. |
(note no sell order as taking most of my trades on Oanda or Fxpro at the moment and using alapri for charts or orders where I want to use more precise lot size - as can use microlots on alapri but not on fxpro). |
May 11, 2010 11:59am
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My current policy of taking profits at the first major obstacle is paying off took profit on UC and U/CHF at the first obvious areas...not prepared to throw profit away as price retraces hard from these areas at the moment. Until we get some trending again or some clearer direction I'll be trading like this. Of course this means %R does suffer and % gains are more slow and steady but when the trends start to emerege again I can then revert back to my normal trending style / more aggresive touch trading style too and make some bigger gains.
Secondly, I've set up my Fxpro and Oanda account on myfxbook, will post links in the next post.
Lastly, I quit the myfxbook competition - my account was down to something like $93 and I just havent got the time to try and get it back up again...I didn treally take it too seriously and the way they 'do' the margin call is a bit odd. If you look at the person at the top you can see they are over +800% using a price arbitrage EA...defeats the object really as you will find it hard to use these on real accounts as they take advantage of price lag on a current broker compared to other price feeds...not exactly trading IMO. If there is another account that anyone hears of then please let me know as I'd like to enter and take it more seriously afterall there is money to win!
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 11, 2010 12:26pm
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May 11, 2010 12:25pm
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Looks like I underestimated the GBP strength...didnt think we would get more strength until later tonight or tomorrow....oh well. If it was nt for news I'd be considering a GJ short now.
Looks like I have to link to each 'system' rather than portfolio for myfxbook stats:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/drag...account1/30658
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/drag...account2/30664
These are new accounts from monday with my new account size. note that the % gains are the % of the account balance but not the % of my overall trading account balance (unfortunately!) as not all my funds are in these two accounts etc.
The Fxpro account updates automatically but Oanda is a pain as you have to manually input the history URL into myfxbook, so will only do this once per day.
Anyway just something I thought I'd do so anyone remotely interested can follow me and plus it's easier for me to keep track of my trades and stats etc. |
May 11, 2010 2:55pm
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Short GJ and GU based on falling TL, round number and fib confluence.
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May 12, 2010 1:53am
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Took a break of the A/U IB overnight and TP was at the first trouble area which hit not long ago.
Looking through my charts I like this setup and have ab alert for E/A above 1.4210 as there is a good PPZ above.
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May 12, 2010 4:15am
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Took a long on EU...no real 'technical' setup...a few bullish 1HR bars and negative USD across the board combined with a Dax futures soaring up above resistance so entered a small postion long 27 pips in positive at the moment.
Was looking @ UC and Oil...however I favour a break on oil of the support level as we have lower and lower bounces off this level in the past.
I dont see much else at the moment.
Nasir - Fancy the chances of a Pakistan v. England final
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May 12, 2010 4:18am
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This was my AU setup from last night...it was discussed in deopth on James16 thread.
I dont take IB's that often as I dont feel they are that reliable, but when @ a RN with confuence of PPZ and MA then worth a trade, had an automatic TP at the FTA marked.
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May 12, 2010 4:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Playing long term anyone? I'm willing to 'bet' big if things turn out like that.
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Looks like that right shoulder has been broken and acting as support now... |
May 12, 2010 4:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
PV baby.
Too bad the AU IB is not doing well. And that's on live too... I hope, and I hate hoping that the TL and 0.9 will hold once more so we'll get another LH.
I was looking at UC a few hours ago. H2 pin and an almost 3 bar low while oil was doing a double bottom. I don't know why I didn't take the setup... scared demo money..
GU broke off a wedge on H1, maybe we'll see a retest. |
Similar entries on EU...I would have liked to get in a bit earlier i.e. at the break of that congestion zone.
I'm watching GU too...waiting for a retest of the TL it broke.
Gold and Silver are at interesting areas too...though I never like my first buy to be at new highs...I preer to enter at a discount and then build more positions in rather than taking my first postion in a trend near the recent top. |
May 12, 2010 4:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
PV baby.
Too bad the AU IB is not doing well. And that's on live too... I hope, and I hate hoping that the TL and 0.9 will hold once more so we'll get another LH.
I was looking at UC a few hours ago. H2 pin and an almost 3 bar low while oil was doing a double bottom. I don't know why I didn't take the setup... scared demo money..
GU broke off a wedge on H1, maybe we'll see a retest. |
What does PV mean by the way?
Also, what was / is your plan on the AU IB...it hit the FTA and reversed. |
May 12, 2010 9:19am
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Went long on Silver earlier on a breakout and retest...though got a cr*p entry. Also long EG too.
GU, GJ and Oil interest me at the moment...I've got a small oil entry short...only small as we have oil inventories news in just over an hour.
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May 12, 2010 9:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Nop......
Who'll beat Austraila.....
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I havent seen Australia play yet in the competition...been impressive?
England been good so far...come on so much in this format over the last 2 years and have a good balance to the team...but always culpable to a really poor performance out of the blue.
Saw the final ball on the news last night in the Sri Lanka match...that was such an awefull ball...it just sat up to be creamed out the ground. |
May 12, 2010 11:05am
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Breakout and retest with a small pin bar...
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May 12, 2010 11:09am
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got stopped out on that spike in oil earlier...but maybe worth another go with the pin bar off the falling TL in a bearish triangle pattern.
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May 12, 2010 11:15am
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Could have shorted CJ with oil too as we have a wedge formation on this pair.
Is G/CHF breaking it's TL a sign that GU will break it's support it's sitting on...both FTSE and DAX futures are at intraday resistance now so everything is lined up for it to break downwards.
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May 12, 2010 11:24am
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charts in relation to previous post...can we get some downside momentum now...something that has been missing from price action this week after the extreme moves we had last week.
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May 12, 2010 12:22pm
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Looks like a false breakout on GU so cut that trade...G/CHF hit FTA which I missed and reversed...still in this trade and added another @ retest of TL and round number with MA's just above.. EU not doing much.
These are very choppy slow moving market where price lacks momentum...pretty tough to trade IMO, just eeking out small gains taking small winners here and then. Hopefully we'll get some momentum and direction back into the markets soon.
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May 12, 2010 3:13pm
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4HR BEOB and pullback to PPZ on oil...gotta have tight stops on oil trades as minimum due to minimum lot size compared to my account size...will probably fund my IG, CMC or ODL spreadbetting account at some point for trading gold, silver and oil so can avoid this.
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May 13, 2010 2:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uksnowman
Hi, excellent journal, very interested to read it.
I should probably post this on the J16 thread but I would like your opinion based on the way you define your charts, s/r, ppz etc.
I have marked some s/r points on the 4h AJ chart. Given that price has broken out of the wedge to the upside, the momentum seems bullish. However, price has already reached a ppz....
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Firstly, I don't like the wedge...it's too steep to say thats a reliable wedge formation IMO...but price is following the TL for now. If I were looking to go long to get in an expected up trend then yes I would be playing a break of ressitance zones...I wouldnt necessarily weight for a retest just playing the break and then adding more positions on a break of the next resistance etc.
See this thread for more details on this trend trading style:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=62141
There is an additional resistance area @ 84.76 area on you chart plus look @ 84.98 area...looking at the daily , weekly and monthly chart when looking at this area.
Lastly, I wouldnt haveput the fbis there...fibs should be drawn between clear swing low/highs and you've started yours above the wick low...which seems like a bit of curve fitting to me...but everyone uses them differently so its just my opinion.
Hope that helps. |
May 13, 2010 2:41am
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This has got to be one of the quietest and slow moving weeks in a long time...which was pretty predicatble following the extreme volatility we had last week. A lot of choppy price action this week has made it difficult to make an serious gains. Thursday's have produced some decent setups with good mometum moves over the past month so hopefully we will see some more of the same today.
The general trend at the momentis a gradual up move against USD and JPy but very slow and no momentum so wont take much to change the trend. Equitiy markets are the same in a gradual uptrend with the Dax in particular out performing.
Dow futures are @ a PPZ area now...I'm looking to play a break of this area and FTSE futures looking to break up too.
Still in Oil short though we havent had the downward momentum we were looking for so will cut this soon for a loss.
I favour the GBP from a technical perspective in terms of the best looking upward trend.
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May 13, 2010 2:43am
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.
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May 13, 2010 2:52am
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If Dow futures beak up...which looks likely IMO then we have a similiar opportunitiy on NJ, daily PPZ above with a rising TL...all pointing towards a breakout higher. FTSE and DAX are opening higher so if we have another quiet news day then I see no reason why equities wont continue to drift higher.
Anyway, as we know all can change in an instant but this is my plan until something shows me otherwise...
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May 13, 2010 2:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
How do you plan to enter the break of ppz on the dow, just jump on the break or wait for a retest?
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I always enter on the break...which is obviously more risky than waiting for the retest...but my bias is long so I'll enter a small postion on the break and then if we do retest and then shoot higher I'll enter another position. It's the same method as descibed in the 'peaks and valley' thread (but I'm not necessarily using a line chart) i.e entering positions on a break of a peak with stop below the recent valley and keep entering more positions on breaks of new peaks etc. When the market does trend, this method makes some serious profit. |
May 13, 2010 3:09am
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Trying the N/CAD for a long and long NJ...small risk on both.
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May 13, 2010 3:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.A.C.Doug
How many pips past the line till your in?
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It varies...on dow I'm looking @ 10920/21 + spread...the previous lows seems to be concentrated between 10914 - 10918
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May 13, 2010 3:16am
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Breakouts or more range trading...
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May 13, 2010 4:37am
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1HR BEOB on GJ , GU, EU, AU etc...moved quick on GBP news and thus managed to get in on GJ (spreads were wider than normal) and pending short on AU, missed EU, EJ Also cut NJ long as YMMO moving down off PPZ.
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May 13, 2010 4:45am
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shame I missed the E/xxx ones as they will be weaker than the rest...but just couldnt react fast enough lol.
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May 13, 2010 5:11am
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Some very good setups there...a tad enoyed it happened so quickly that I couldnt get some decent risk exposed...GBP in particular had wide spreads due to deficit data release...was 15 at one point on Oanda. Ideally I would have entered 2% risk on EJ, GJ, AU and then taken some off the table at FTA leaving the rest to try and catch a runner. As it stands I've took GJ and AU and took profit at FTA...365Ma is holding up YMMO if we can break this then xxx/jpy etc will follow and I'll re-enter on a break of support or the likely 4HR BEOB that will form (50mins until close on my brokers).
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May 13, 2010 5:47am
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They were the best setups off the week IMO right there on the 1HR / 4HR charts (depending on what broker)...unfortunately they happened so fast by the time I'd calculated lot size, SL and tried to enter it was too late to get a decent sized line down. Grabbed some pips on AU, EJ and GJ in the end and now we have bigger 4HR BEOB's forming on my Alpari feed.
YMMO is being held up by 365 MA at the moment with support and TL support below @ 10825.
You can also see how you need to react quickly and change your mind in accordance with what you charts tell you...I was long NJ as a tester to see if we were going to break up on YMMO and other xxx/JPY (as NJ was the strongest and had broken above it's PPZ) and YMMO rejected it's PPZ pulling xxx/jpy and xxx/usd down with it...thus I cut my NJ faily quickly and went short the trades mentioned above...being patient and waiting for these setups and reacting quickly in line with your charts is key in what has been avery slow choppy trading week thus far.
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May 13, 2010 6:45am
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Pending orders on these setups...I've cherry picked the ones I like the best and have 6% (cumulative) at risk if the PA bars 'break'.
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May 13, 2010 9:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Went back to demo again this week after blowing my small testing live account and i am up 130% on my second trading day risking 2%-3% per trade.
Last time when i was demoing i did't pay much attention to MM, Exits and also i have came to know that i had so much discretion involved in my trading, and it did hurt badly on live.
so this time i am correcting the mistakes i made last time.
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I'm sorry you blew your live account...sometimes the best way and only way of learning from mistakes is the hardest way...I've been there plenty of times in the past...the last time I blew an account was a fairw hile ago now but it was a decent sized account and it was one of the worse things I've ever experienced...I felt physcially sick...but it made me open my eyes and look inside myself (not literally lol!) etc.
130% is very very impressive!! I'm only up 8% this week and I was quite pleased with that as I consider this week to be pretty tough to get some clear setups and have been pretty cautious and picky in what trades I take - been risking 1% per trade on average...but maybe I shouldnt be pleased
How have you managed to increase your account by that much....have you caught some runners / taken a lot of trades / got some real big %R results...and you have a full time job dont you too...hmmmm I must try harder.
I've been taking profit at FTA's all week and having wider SL and no touch trades...have not had any %R>1 so far. Mucked up a bit on EG shorts and played oil badly - overall net loss on oil and I'm not sure how. That's the problem when I play choppy markets I take profit very quickly so when trades need a little space I cut them too soon and miss out...cut my last oil short a few hours ago...and yes the chart is staring right at me now lol!
Just over 2 hours until the cricket |
May 13, 2010 9:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I think another bad thing that happened was that i started trading two MT4 (IBFX+FXPRO)and it did a great damage to my analysis.
I opened my charts and stare at them for a while and then made my mind what i was gonna do. Actually i caught come trades with very high R:R, Took some profit at 20-30 pips and then moved my stops.
Good luck with your match LJ.
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Good stuff...for some reason I seem to be a bit nervous and lacking the confidence to pull the trigger this week...I mean I would have taken most of those setups if not all previously wihtout even thinking about it...but this week I've been thinking twice about things and not taking the touch trades...hmmm need to think about that.
I had very similar entries on your first 2 oil trades and came out with a net loss....rubbish! also had you first EU trade and exited way to early....
Damn I definitely need to take a step back and find out why I'm not trading like was a few weeks ago.
Aside...if Dow futures can break 10825 we should get some momemtum on shorts...what is it about Thursday's and higher momentum |
May 13, 2010 9:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I was thinking about it that something was wrong with my figures.
Put the values in excel and it's actually 25% not 130%.
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lol ...I was thinking that even @ 2-3% per trade 130% was extroadinary...only 25% in 2 days...need to work harder Nasir...lol, just joking about buddy
It does show that you clearly trade your charts and not your PnL though.
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May 13, 2010 11:24am
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Right, I'm stopping for today now...cricket is on so will enjoy that...I've had a really bad trading day today and am very very frustrated that I've somehow manged to lose money today, so need to take a break to relax, review my trades + mistakes and reset my emotions to neutral for trading tomorrow.
Just put all my trades into spreadsheet and the damage was done with the last 6 trades - all losing trades costing me nearly 6% of my account...only trade I have open now is an oil short @ 74.13 SL @75.00.
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May 13, 2010 11:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
It's the difference between live and demo.
But i am glad it was just a 115$ account so it's not high for these valuable lessons.
NO MATTER HOW GOOD IS YOUR SYSTEM AND YOU ENTRIES. IF YOU DON'T HAVE PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE AND MM YOU HAVE NO CHANCE AT THIS BUSINESS.
My total tuition fee has reached to somewhere near 1000$ in 1.5 years.
Anyways i have started a journal to keep it tight.
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Good luck with the journal Nasir...I've added it to my 'subsctiption list' |
May 13, 2010 12:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Sorry to hear that LJ, but you know it's part of being a trader. Accepting your losses and moving on to another day is all it takes. A string of loses is nothing but a test of will for moving on.
You've got Nasir's charts from today. That's a real study case. |
Yep it sure is
Yeah there was nothing wrong with my charts...I normally have pretty similiar charts to Nasir as we have quite similar trading styles...it was my lack of patience to wait and give price a chance to move that cost me today and yesterday as my winners were cut far too early in some instances (G/CHF, GU, EU, Oil, EG being the major ones) meaning the losses I did suffer wiped out nearly all my profit for the week.
I've been analysing trades far too much lately...a montha go I was seeing a setup and pulling the trigger without even thinking about it, this week I've been over thinking setups and getting nervous when they go into drawdown which is odd as it's nocos I cant accept losses nor cos I'm risking too much...hmmmm
The best way I find to get over a bad day is just to relax, redo my charts from scratch, review trades to see what went wrong make a mental note on it and go and forget about and come back with a fresh mind ready to trade. |
May 13, 2010 1:12pm
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This was a good setup for a touch trade...
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May 13, 2010 2:29pm
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touch trade, PA or both take your pick...
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May 14, 2010 2:22am
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Two trades this morning...daily pin on UC with SL below left eye and touch trade on EG, round number, PPZ, fibs , TL...2% on UC pin, 1% on touch trade.
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May 14, 2010 2:31am
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Taking the AU pin with SL above first eye and MA...as lnog as this doesnt break before it breaks the low...2% (setup looks better on Alpari but taking it on fxpro).
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May 14, 2010 2:34am
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1HR DBHLC on GU and GJ...I like the GU setup and UJ is @ minor support which seems to be hoilding so taking GU setup over GJ makes sense.
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May 14, 2010 3:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Look LJ you're not trading simple PA bars on daily TF. It's an aggressive style and it's not for everyone. Believe me market will put you down on you're knees. Who doesn't want to trade like rac?? Everyone want to be trade like him but actually how many you think are doing it or how many you think did tried it and failed. IT'S SIMPLE BUT IT AIN'T EASY.
As touch traders we live on the edge. We never know when our feet slipped to the wrong side. Are we taking every opportunity market offered...
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Yeah took a look and like your rules...good luck with your journal, I hope it helps you.
I know what you mean. I think sometimes my problem is that I go through periods like the last 2 days where I get nervous lack confidence and dont pull the trigger where I should and then get in the trend late and sufer a loss. Some weeks I can just pull the trigger and everything comes easily and so smoothly, other times I dont seem to be 'in the zone' and dont take trades I do when I am in the zone.
The main problems over the last two days have been not being patient enough...my losses have come from mainly playing intra-day PA bars where I have taken profit too early causing frustration and then cut the ones in drawdown instead of letting them play themselves out...a whole spiral that is only gonna cause mental anguish and poor trading. I've been too cautios at times this week and not taken the good touch trades and not getting into the trades early and thus whennI do get in the trend I'm near the end and suffering a loss which wouldnt be so bad if I had 2 positions earlier on in the trend etc etc. Oil and EG sum up my trading this week...only took the Pa on oil intra day this week and 1 PV trade and suffered a decent net loss. EG made some net wins playing the downtrend but no where not what I should have if I'd been patient.
I've re-read some of my 'good weeks' where I was in the zone from my journal and am feeling much more refreshed mentally now... I feel that trading is a constant mental struggle at times the challenge is keeping your mind in the right mode for trading and sometimes I let it fall into the wrong mode.
Easy win in the end for England...the only real tough game we have had so far is Ireland who put us under a lot of pressure...thats when England have the potential to self destruct...I'll be cheering on Pakistan later, be a might performance if you can beat the Aussies. |
May 14, 2010 3:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
1HR DBHLC on GU and GJ...I like the GU setup and UJ is @ minor support which seems to be hoilding so taking GU setup over GJ makes sense.
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Noticed this after the last post...removed pending orders for now.
I can only trade this morning as gotta go out for couple hours this afternoon (around Us retail news release time and US open) so not looking to have a lot of positions open.
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May 14, 2010 3:22am
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Triangle pattern on gold...divergence on silver...waiting for a retrace on oil.
Equity futures - YMMO has 10790 area as resistance and is holding and looking weak, Dax - sitting in support...will take a trade on the break down, FTSE boucning down from 61 fib.
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May 14, 2010 3:26am
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Dont like GU prefer GJ now...a much clearer definted consolidation box to trade a break down with the recent trend - 2% @ risk.
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May 14, 2010 3:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Triangle pattern on gold...divergence on silver...waiting for a retrace on oil.
Equity futures - YMMO has 10790 area as resistance and is holding and looking weak, Dax - sitting in support...will take a trade on the break down, FTSE boucning down from 61 fib.
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Taken gold short - 1%...only concern I have is golds flight to safety status i.e. dow down USD up and gold normally goes up too...thats whats been happening recently...so I'm taking this trade based on technicals only. |
May 14, 2010 3:51am
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dax and dow futures...breaks of support.
In summary I'm now in GJ, GU (forgot to remove pending order), Dow, Gold shorts and UC long with pending short on AU and dax futures
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May 14, 2010 4:00am
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Been reading rumours that Germany has a 'plan b' to quit the Euro and return to the DEM...obviously only rumours and I dont trade rumours and if these rumours were true then the Euro would be going through the floor. However rumours can cause panic and can cause the herds to sell heavily...isn't the saying 'sell the rumour buy the fact'...just something to bear in mind heading into the weekend if got any trades open.
I doubt I'll have any trades open over the week but I've got oanda ready if something drastic happens and am going to transfer some more money into this account later on as the margin is quite low (1:50).
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May 14, 2010 4:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
hey friend
nice quiet spot u got here
hope u dnt mind if i drop in from time to time
many pips |
Hey squeezy, course I don't mind, always good to have friends drop in
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May 14, 2010 4:53am
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EG touch trade has gone positive...looking for 8568 as minor 1H support but ultimately looking for it to retest the TL...will move SL to BE+1 soon.
Dow has retraced back up a bit...gonna leave this open and GJ open, cut GU for small profit...no point being in both and if dow falls GJ shuld be the weaker pair. Dont want to trade EU as it's near larget time frame support...when it gets there I'll probably take profit on EG trade.
Gold, UC still in place and still have pending shorts on AU and dax.
If UC can get abot 1.0300 I'll add another postiion long.
Initial targets are:
Dow - 10671,
GJ - 133.95
gold 1227 (with minor suppot @ 1235 and 1232 areas)
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May 14, 2010 5:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
The rejection off 1.25 on EU is so weak that I think we'll go below. And we'll stay there for some time.
Only trade I'm in is long UC like everyone else here. |
1.2450-80 is potential support on weekly timeframe thats what stopping me.
EG has formed a nice pin...I'm obviously in from the touch trade. |
May 14, 2010 5:07am
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gonna cut gold soon it's playing its flight to safety status by the looks of it. Dax short got triggered but calculated risk erong and was 5% exposed to quickly cut it! Not sure how to work out exposure on equity futures...
Added another short on break fo EG pin - 1% added to original 1% took on touch trade.
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May 14, 2010 5:10am
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Quite a few BEOB or DBHLC as continuation bars on xxx/usd and xxx/jpy 4HR Fxpro...I'm already exposed and not going to add further positions in as I'm off out in 2 hours so will just let my current trades play themselves out.
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May 14, 2010 5:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
YM still needs to close Sunday's gap, same for U/C
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No gap on my platform (FxPro) for YM?
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May 14, 2010 5:41am
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Took profit on GJ @ daily PPZ - 134...it might go lower but I'm happy to take profit at that TP.
Cut gold for small loss and took some profit on EG...it hoit minor support and rebounding so took profit on the touch trade.
AU short now active.
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May 14, 2010 5:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Care to develop this sentence? What broker are you using for DAX, FxPro?
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yeah Fxpro...how do i work out amount per pip |
May 14, 2010 5:49am
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Oil is certainly rubbing it in and reminding me how badly I it this week...plently of setups to get short on this .
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May 14, 2010 6:10am
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Oil in a support area...with 4HR divergence and CJ sitting on daily support...
EU is in weekly support area...look at weekly and monthly chart...
If AJ can hold below 82.50 then there is a lot of clear space.
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May 14, 2010 6:22am
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Update on trades from today:
1. Gold cut for a loss of -0.4R
2. YMMO - took full profit @ 10700 minor support area...it might drop like a stone later but as I'm not here and its Friday I'd rather just take full profit. = +1R
3. G/J took full profit @ 134 daily PPZ...+0.5R
4. EG took profit on touch trade at a bounce from minor support...bit annoying should have decided either to take profit automatically via TP order or let it run +0.75R
Total gain on above +3.2%
Open trades:
1. AU short from 0.8926 SL @ 0.8985 TP just below 0.9000 which is a support area
2. UC long from 1.0232 SL @ 1.0140 TP @ 1.0300
3. EGshort from 0.8570 SL @ 0.8622 TP @ 0.8545
That's me done for now...will be back in about 4 hours.
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May 14, 2010 6:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
https://www.fxpro.com/futures (click on page#, in the table, in red)
for dax it's 12.50 E/lot/pip, and 1 pip is 0.5 points. I see they charge commission.
I'll modify Market_value in a couple of minutes. What pairs are you interested in? so I know what to add.
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Thanks , I'll check that out in a bit and make a note. Just the dax, dow and ftse futures |
May 14, 2010 9:56am
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If I were still in UC I'd add above 1.0300, CJ broke daily support just now as dow futures dropped like a stone.
EG trade hit my TP...thats the trade from the 4HR pin bar...exited touch trade earlier at FTA....so no open trades now.
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May 14, 2010 9:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Neutro, another silly question.
Do you know what is the meaning of the little colored square (green in your case) close to your nickname. At FF somebody has it, someone else not.
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means that person is online |
May 14, 2010 9:57am
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[quote=neutro;3724855]
Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
This should do the trick.
LJ, take the GBP indicator from here, I've made further modifications.
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Thanks for this...much appreciated |
May 14, 2010 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Wait for the PM then.
But remember i am not sure about this project and efforts could go in vain.
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a holy grail EA 
Just joking around my friend. |
May 14, 2010 10:10am
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[quote=neutro;3725136]
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
You bet.
What's up with gold? Nasir went short but closed it and then it went rock bottom... even though indices went down and dollar up. Something must be happening.. |
panic...irratic markets...maybe some profit taking in gold, but it did drop a fair bit quite quickly...these bearish moves are quite impuslive recently...impuslive moves makes it hard to trade by technicals IMO |
May 14, 2010 10:11am
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[quote=nasir.khan;3725158]
Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
See Neutro if gold is in an uptrend (no matter how strong it is) it does't mean that you can go on blindly Buying it (not pointed at you).
When Divg comes there is always a DIP,....... and today it was coupled with a BRN and a TL.
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yeah divergence is a pretty reliable warning sign to expect a pullback of some sorts soon...then its a case of waiting for a setup to occur to ride that pullback |
May 14, 2010 10:25am
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[quote=neutro;3725190]
Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I get your point, but from my perspective, I would have my soul at ease knowing that I have a lot more buyers behind me than just some impulse traders (not pointing at you). And you did say that you were feeling at ease when you closed the trade.
But your style goes for some quick scalps, while I try to be more picky and in line with the overall market. It's not like we can't live together in harmony. |
If dow can hold 10600 then we'll see a rise in xxx/usd and xxx/jpy IMO, if it can break and hold down then those pairs will drop heavily. |
May 14, 2010 10:59am
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I want it to rise lol!
Just taken this break and retest of ressitance...if only I hadnt had to go out for 4 hours I would have held my touch trade and pin bar trade on this pair...oh well. Only small risk as it's not a major support level.
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May 14, 2010 11:02am
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Gold and silver just broken their recent support levels ...missed silver but got in (slightly late) on gold.
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May 14, 2010 11:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
anybody short gold
sorry you guys are a bit too fast for me
ill try my best to keep up
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lol didnt see your post before I did mine...much better entry there than me. |
May 14, 2010 11:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I do not understand your comment, if it was refereed to amy post.
Why do you want YM to raise? It has nothing to do with E/G. I am also in this trade and it is ok so far.
Just to Understand
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No, YM has nothing to do with EG...I just want that technial level to hold if it does then I could start looking for some xxx.usd longs setups. |
May 15, 2010 10:44am
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Stats for the week:
51 trades, 62.2% win rate, 4.71%% account increase.
My worse week since start of journal, a drecreased risk per trade on average this week due to expected choppiness but made some mistakes towards the end of the week. Have reviewed them and wont dwell on them anymore and just focus on next week...thursday and friday bought more trendy, volatile price action and thus I'll be returning to using 1-3% per trade next week.
Also going to to set out some basic rules...inspired by Nasir's thread and rules I tihnk this will be a good idea for me to do.
Lastly, I've stopped watching my non-intraday list of pairs recently and want to get back to looking at these. I want to play 4HR and above and mainly just looking for strong trends and playing these either Jacko style or P&V style...anyway will post more on this in my 'rules' post later.
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May 15, 2010 12:52pm
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Price Action
Timeframes - 1HR, 4HR and daily
Types - outside bars, inside bars, pin bars and DBHLC / DBLHC
Confluence required - PPZ only , additional confluence required to increase risk e.g. any of the following - fibs, BRN, divergence, TL or confuence with equity / commoditiy markets
Exception to the above is PA at extreme swing highs / lows...i.e. no PPZ - in order to trade this divergence has to be present and strong consideration is given to the size of both the PA bar and the lead up to it.
Risk per trade: 1-5%
Touch Trading
Timeframes - 1HR, 4HR and daily
Confluence - PPZ together with 1 off the following TL, fibs, divergence, BRN
Exception in extreme cases can take a touch trade off a PPZ only...only in extreme cases when there are other outside confluence factors (fundamentals or equity / commdoditiy charts) and/or a very strong daily / weekly PPZ area
Risk 1-2%
Breakouts
Timeframes - 1HR and 4HR
Style - 1. pure breakout of a known chart pattern e.g. consolidation box, triangle, flag, cup and handle etc. or 2. breakout and pullback (retest).
Risk - 1-3%
Trend Trading
Timeframes - 1HR, 4HR and daily (daily only applies to setup 2 below)
Setups: 1. P&V trading 2. Pullback to a PPZ/TL ideally with 50/61 fib confluence.
Risk 2-3%
I think that pretty much sums up how I currently trade but it might help to write these down and have a copy on my desk for reference from time to time.
With regards risk per trade, this is discretionary but obviously the better the setup / more confluence factors the higher the risk. Cosideration is also given to total correlated eposure to USD and JPY - I dont think I would want more than circa 8% maximum committed to a single curreny direction.
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May 15, 2010 4:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Nice to have rules written out like that. I had my rules written and posted on my monitor but they were more like general rules, not specific. I'll make a better list.
Touch trade on EU? |
Wouldnt be touch trading EU at the moment...we are in monthly / weekly PPZ territory so a trade now would be more of a swing trade which I dont do. We do have daily, 4HR and 1HR divergence though...so I am looking for a 'setup' to go long rather than go with the trend.
Out of the currencies G/CHF has an upcoming touch trade opportunity...Nasir posted a chart before on this.
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May 16, 2010 11:19am
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I've reviewed my non-intraday pairs with a view to start trading some well defined ranges or trading some well defined trends (either PV style or preferably on pullbacks i.e. entering the trend at a discount) and have identified the pairs below as the best ones that I'll be keeping an eye on / setting alerts.
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May 16, 2010 11:34am
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My views on Oil, Silver and Gold:
1. Oil - Broke and held below daily PPZ @ 72.60, next up is weekly / monthly PPZ and BRN @ 70.00...I'm lookin to sell any pullbacks into thie strong down trend.
2. Gold - gave a false break down through 1226.80 support on Friday which indicates still a lot of buyers willing to buy at this level...thus I'll be looking to buy at this level or a break of new highs...though will look for divergence and price action for a indication of potential trend change / pullback etc.
3. Silver - unlike gold Silver broke through its support level on friday and held below and closed right at this level...so be interesting to see if this level holds or not.
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May 17, 2010 2:37am
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Interesting moves down in Asia...
Have taken the following trades this morning...all 1% risk
(aud/sgd on oanda - long @ 1.2237)
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May 17, 2010 2:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
morning LJ
everywhere seems trendy early this week, cld only mean greet oppurtunities
nice one on the silver, was looking for a trigger around 1933 but now how to wait for the rxn at 1890....
many pips this week LJ
nothing really on my radar for now, just sitting back and waitiing for something to pop up
cheers
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yes everything is in a downtrend on majors against usd and jpy...however most are sitting at daily / weekly support now so just watching for the moment, waiting for retracements or confirmed breaks lower.
Turned on screen and silver was first chart I opened...a nice chart to look at first thing in the morning lol...1933 would have been the best entry...I got in @ 1923.
Many pips to you too |
May 17, 2010 3:04am
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Equity markets (dow @ 10500, oil @ 70, ftse @ 5243) and oil are all at support levels now as are most of xxx/usd and xxx/jpy...thus will we bounce or will we continue back down...going to dip my toes in the water and play some retracements, starting with oil.
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May 17, 2010 3:20am
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Just gone long AJ and GJ...no real technical setups (well GJ has broken above a PPZ area) ...equity markets are retracing quite hard and taking xxx.usd and xxx/jpy with them...jpy is weaker than usd so picked two pairs to play specualtive swing longs...very risky counter trend trades and more a play on current market sentiment and rythym this morning plus a gut feel than anything else.
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May 17, 2010 3:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Just gone long AJ and GJ...no real technical setups (well GJ has broken above a PPZ area) ...equity markets are retracing quite hard and taking xxx.usd and xxx/jpy with them...jpy is weaker than usd so picked two pairs to play specualtive swing longs...very risky counter trend trades and more a play on current market sentiment and rythym this morning plus a gut feel than anything else.
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Realised this was stupid and reversed for shorts |
May 17, 2010 4:47am
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Took profit on GJ earlier and EJ out at BE. TP hit on oil...deliberated whethe to keep it and see if we can get above the PPZ and add a position butdecided to close we the downtrend has been very strong. I am trying to get into the habit of taking half profit and moving SL to BE+1 in situations like this but the recent strong down move convinced me otherwise in this instance.
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May 17, 2010 4:52am
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Alert went off on E/CAD...thought about buying it here, but reminded myself that I want to trend these pairs with the trend so am waiting to sell a break or retracement up to the PPZ and TL.
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May 17, 2010 5:11am
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Broke my rules and went short Oil at where I took profit (cant go short based on an intra day PPZ only) and gave back all my profit from earlier long...should have held half my postion long instead...a really bad and stupid mistake to start the week...very angry with myself for that...no doubt Oil will go to the moon now...the market always makes you payd high for basic mistakes from my experience.
Touch Trading
Timeframes - 1HR, 4HR and daily
Confluence - PPZ together with 1 off the following TL, fibs, divergence, BRN
Exception in extreme cases can take a touch trade off a PPZ only...only in extreme cases when there are other outside confluence factors (fundamentals or equity / commdoditiy charts) and/or a very strong daily / weekly PPZ area
Risk 1-2%
If dow was at resistance now then I'd be shorting EJ and GJ as they are at TL and resistance on hourly chart but I want more confuence to take these based on 1HR charts.
Going out for a run, back later. (still have silver short, a/sgd long and chf/sgd long open) |
May 17, 2010 5:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
Hmmm! Saw ur rules above ,that's really good....I bliv we all need rules to keep us all on track
we shld also try reviewing our rules from time to time to improve on them.
I've summarized my rules which has even made to notice something which I'm going to add real soon.
Cos of my rules I hesitated on my audcad4hr short this morning butive been seeing that kind of scenario for a while now which is similar to my orig Rules.
Sorry Lj, feel like I'm saying too much but I'm all smiles here cos it hit home when I went back to wat a senior said a long...
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Yeah...next step is to learn to stick to them lol.
Just looked @ A/CAD...4HR pin bar of previous support turned resistance?...This occurred when I was asleep otherwise I would have taken that.
Post as much or as little as you like ...I like people posting their thoughts / setups to discuss / sharing views etc...there is a collection of regular people that seem to like this thread and post and I enjoy the exchange and discussions...I firmly believe that interacting with other like minded traders is a good thing in this business |
May 17, 2010 5:39am
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Silver is starting to move...have moved my SL down slightly...if I'm around I'll take partial profit where marked and let other half run...need to start using a trade manager for when I'm not in front of my screen...anyone know any simple ones?
Just something that will move to SL to x when price is @ y and take partial profit @ z when price is v...lol if that makes sense. I practiced with one a while back but found it too fiddly and over complicated.
If the 1HR TL can hold then this could turn into a good move...anyone here a member of the J16 PF by the way...if so one of the seniors intra day methods could come into play here...
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May 17, 2010 6:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, it's not really a BUOB (low is higher than previous bar low, not lower). Not even a DBLHC (still, low is higher, not equal to previous bar low). And it stopped right at a PPZ.
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Agree...if I were to play this then I'd just be playing a break of the 10643 PPZ rather than the PA bar...first target would be 10671...but I wont be playing this. |
May 17, 2010 6:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You killed me ! LOL But... you are right
Oil has a DBLHC to the pip. |
You just had to mention Oil didn't you...lol. Yeah this looks much better than YM...72.60 would be my first target...I'd be risking near 2.5% if I took this trade due to minimum lot size on FxPro...actually gonna take it with 2% risk and put SL below the 1HR PPZ that it broke on the way up.
Actually took 1.5% risk and if it returns to the 1HR PPZ I'll add another 1%. Initial target 72.60
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 17, 2010 6:28am
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May 17, 2010 6:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I guess you know this one. The troubles are as follow:
1. You shouldn't change timeframes when using it.
2. Neither MT4 profiles.
3. Computer on all the time.
4. When the conditions are met you have to pull it off the chart because if you change profiles or timeframes it will start again and it will take partial profit if it the condition is met (i.e. partial TP is 30p from entry and price is now 40p from entry, it will take partial profit once again even if it did a while back)
You should try it on demo for a few days, to get a hang of it......
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Thanks for the attachment and thanks for pointing out the limitatons...shouldnt be any problem as I have netbook on all the time 24/5 and have my equity and commod profile open on a spare screen all the time too...just have to remember to not change time frames lol! Will have a play with it. |
May 17, 2010 6:26am
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IB on AU @ PPZ and round number...dont play IB's that often but thinking this onw might be worth a trade
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May 17, 2010 6:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You're right there, didn't spot that.
But I'm playing it like this: 2 layers of fib, end of gap, with trend. Odds are we'll see a move down from there, worth a few pips.
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I dont have the gap, but personally I'd be looking for 74 area fo a touchtrade short...PPZ, 2 layers of fibs, round number and hopefully TL.
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May 17, 2010 6:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Why are you guys so bearish on Oil? 70 is a major support (weekly) and the trend is still on the up side
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Trend is dependant on the time frame you are referring to...If you look at the daily you would say we are in a range but the recent trend has been strongly down. 70 is defintely a very strong weekly PPZ which was the reason for my earlier long trade...but the recent trend on daily, 4HR and 1HR is strongly down...and hence the recent market sentiment is strongly bearish ...any long trades since 86.90 and yoiu would have liekly go burned. Plus it depends on what type of trader you are...I take trend trades, counter trend trades, touch traces, breakouts etc...so if one of those presents itself within my rules I'll take it...thus I am long at the moment (and should still have my long open form the 70 area this morning ) but will take a touch trade short @ 74 as this is a very good touch trade setup IMO. |
May 17, 2010 7:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
This is the biggest weekly bar in last 1.5 years.
I think there is point in being bearish.
And LJ 74???????.
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...and that too lol.
The way I see it 74 is a good confluenced area on the 4hr and 1hr chart...72.60 area is the next major PPZ on the longer term timframes but there is no other confluence so I'd be taking some profit on my current long there but would want some price action or divergence or something so i can reverse for a short there in conjunction with my rules. |
May 17, 2010 7:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
IB on AU @ PPZ and round number...dont play IB's that often but thinking this onw might be worth a trade
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long triggered @ 0.8803...YM breaking above 10620 PPZ too which is an additional confluence...also small positions long EJ and GJ...break above daily PPZ areas and lower frame TL's |
May 17, 2010 7:34am
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Anyone else catch this...I missed it as was watching xxx.usd etc.
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May 17, 2010 7:42am
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Let's see if we get some more upside action...small positions, PV trading style.
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May 17, 2010 8:42am
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Dow started to retrace hard as did sliver and oil so got out of oil @ BE..exited silver at round number and took all profit on xxx/jpy longs. Still have AU long in play and just went long again on EJ and GJ as retesting support area...small positions. dow is in middle of S/R areas whilst ftse and dax are sitting on support areas.
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May 17, 2010 8:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
not exactly sure whether u r thinking long or short but im waiting for 1217.50 to get hit before i take further actions, just watching it for now
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Long TL and PPZ confluence and in direction of trend...4HR PPZ and also previous weekly high area. notice how last week wehn price went below the PPZ how quick it was rejected...this shows that there was strong buying power at this level...so it's reasonable to expect another bounce IMO. |
May 17, 2010 9:28am
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AU now in profit...and EJ and GJ trades bounced up from support levels...though...next key ingredient is for YM to break and stay above 10620 resistance, if doesnt then I'll take profit again on the longs.
EG is winding up on the 1HR chart.
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May 17, 2010 9:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Doesn't EJ look ripe for a sell?
(It has dropped a bit after the pic was taken)
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Yes...add a fib retracement too...whether it goes higher or lower will depend on dow futures and whether 10620 can hold as resistance. I've exited EJ, GJ longs now as that was my stop and reverse point...got some nice pips from going long twice on these.
Gu and EU in good shorting areas too IMO |
May 17, 2010 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yes...add a fib retracement too...whether it goes higher or lower will depend on dow futures and whether 10620 can hold as resistance. I've exited EJ, GJ longs now as that was my stop and reverse point...got some nice pips from going long twice on these.
GU and EU in good shorting areas too IMO
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Was too late on EJ but shorted GU wanted to short GU and EJ as these are the best two setups IMO. |
May 17, 2010 10:19am
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Out of GU for small profit...lacking downside momentum and dow is choppy ...still think dow futures are looking to break 10620 this afternoon...dax and ftse both broke above their resistance areas and on the way up so dow futures should follow IMO.
Regretting missing gold long now @ the TL / PPZ...it's formed a 4HR pin bar now too..wont play it though...silver back @ ppz...not playing this either this time. Focusing on dow and xxx/jpy plus EG and G/CHF which are both winding up in tight triangles.
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May 17, 2010 10:36am
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Decided I would go long Gold...based on 4HR chart...but calculated my risk wrong so instead of hvaing 2% at risk I've got 6% at risk . Had to decide whether to cut or to hedge the '4%' I dont want exposed and have decided to cut and lost 1% ...no excuse for mistakes like that. |
May 17, 2010 11:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Decided I would go long Gold...based on 4HR chart...but calculated my risk wrong so instead of hvaing 2% at risk I've got 6% at risk . Had to decide whether to cut or to hedge the '4%' I dont want exposed and have decided to cut and lost 1% ...no excuse for mistakes like that. |
Should have taken the silver short and left the gold alone and stuck weith my original though...a frustrating day thus far! Am short AJ based on break below daily PPZ and dow resistance holding. |
May 17, 2010 11:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
This thing looks ready to drop. And it has a lot of space to do so.
Three bar low.
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Did you take this...a nice setup 3 bar lows...a good continuation setup, NZD is the weakest of the majors too at the momenty for some reason...GBP/NZD is soaring...its getting near my area I wanted to short but its going like a train so will let it pass...still interested on EUR / AUd short though. |
May 17, 2010 11:53am
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A frustraing day and a losing day for me today. mis-calculating gold risk and taking the gold trade and not silver is proving to be very cosly...not holding oil long and take a short and breaking my rules was also very costly...everything else was for relatively low %R...so it was these two trades that cost me a few % today.
I actually take all my trades on demo too as I'm experimenting taking set lot sizes for each intraday trade based on average stop loss sizes and risk parameters. On this method my demo account is up 10% over the last week (excluding equities and commod trades) compared to 1-2% on real account using diferent stop sizes and different risk parameters...will continue to monitor this but this might be something I might implement goinf forward
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May 17, 2010 1:06pm
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AUD and NZD are very weak compared to other currencies...and we have 4HR BEOB on AU, AJ, NU and NJ...I like AU and AJ best and dont really trade NZD that often so will risk 2% on each.
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May 17, 2010 1:23pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
AUD and NZD are very weak compared to other currencies...and we have 4HR BEOB on AU, AJ, NU and NJ...I like AU and AJ best and dont really trade NZD that often so will risk 2% on each.
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Sell orders set on AJ and AU BEOBs...playing the AJ bar the traditional way but AU I've put SL @ 0.8765 i.e. above the PPZ @ and above 50% retracement of the bar. Was going to play a short from 0.8728 PPZ as a way of getting into the bar at a discount but decided I would rather wait for the break and just have a smaller SL
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May 17, 2010 2:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
AU now in profit...and EJ and GJ trades bounced up from support levels...though...next key ingredient is for YM to break and stay above 10620 resistance, if doesnt then I'll take profit again on the longs.
EG is winding up on the 1HR chart.
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Couldnt bring myself to take this in live account so took it on demo...15min pin bar with supporting MA to act as resistance. |
May 17, 2010 3:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, you can change timeframes, but you have to remember one thing: when you change timeframes, it will restart and it will take partial profit instantly (if price crossed the partial profit mark).
Also, keep in mind that partial profit is in percentages. Default is at 0.5 (50%). If you have 1 lot in play it will close 0.5 lots. And it doesn't round as far as I can tell. If you have 0.5 lots then 50% is 0.2.
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I'm having a play with this on some existing trades on demo...I understand the user parameters but what if I have multiple trades open on the same pair...for example I have two GJ longs at different prices if I attach the EA with my parameters entered which trade will it apply it too or will it apply the same parameters to both trades i.e. move SL to BE at x pips in profit and take y % in partial profit when z pips in profit? |
May 17, 2010 3:51pm
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Notice that the push in Dow towards the close just now didnt take EJ and GJ with it...very unusual.
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May 17, 2010 4:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Sorry LJ, I wasn't around.
To answer your questions:
1. No, I didn't take NU due to having to leave my computer.
2. I really haven't experimented with multiple positions on the same pair. That's why you have to take it on demo, see how it acts, I really don't know.
Sorry to hear about your losses. Maybe you need to take a step back and realize what you're doing wrong. Maybe you're overtrading and trying to reach your % goal by taking some bad setups...
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Ok thanks , I'll have a play with it on demo over the next few days.
It's ok lost 2 % ish I think today no real damage...I'm finding the market quite choppy right now with moves in both directions throughout the day it makes it quite hard to catch a trend which is where the big bucks are. I'd take all but 2 of my trades again today, if you take away my bad gold trade plus mis-calculation and bad oil trade plus the way I mis-managed my oil long exit then I would have ben in profit by a few % today. Still feel that the markets have been very different to a month ago where we had less volatility but 'cleaner' more trendy moves.
I see we are going to have some pins bars on Uc, CJ, GJ and GU on my charts as well as on dow futures. Hopefully this will be the start of the resumption of the trend again on dow etc...the intraday move of the dow today sums up current price action I think it was 140 pips down at some point and ended up a few pips in the positive...hard to tell what the overal trend is and you just have to take profit when you can which means low %R results. |
May 17, 2010 4:57pm
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I was going to play the daily pins on U/CHF and GU but as the FTA is very close I'd have to set TP there as I wouldnt want to wake up to see price had hit the FTA and reverse...thus as these areas are too close to trade overnight thus I will either trade them tomorrow morning if not triggered and/or bear them in mind when trading tomorrow.
I like 4HR silver BEOB...would put SL on this just above 19.00 RN and TP @ FTA marked if I could trade this but minimum lot size means by risk would be over 3%.
Only trade I'm in is an EG long...breakout and retrace off the triangle SL @ 8535.
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May 18, 2010 2:01am
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Indeed it is...will the pin bars play out and is this start of a decent retracement...have we put in temporary lows on dow and xxx/usd xxx/jpy...we will see.
I will be playing breaks of U/CH, UC and GU pins on the daily...all FTAs arec lose so will manage carefully if they break (SL's are being placed below/above first eye or a PPZ rathern than end of the pin - most pairs have tested the first eye etc and rebounding so if pin breaks it is a reasonable assumption to make that these PPZ / first eye areas should hold and price should reach FTA at the bery least).
Also playing the following PA bars on the daily timeframe. (E/CAD - playing a break of the low).
Some GBP and eurozone data out this morning could help risk sentiment and help push price higher.
Still in EG trade from yesterday.
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May 18, 2010 2:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm playing GJ, EJ, UC and EM ones. Already in GJ near left eye. I'm playing UC with a sell below 1.03 @ 1.0294 and EJ @ 115.05 so we get past BRNs. All on live.
EG and GC are winding up in realt tight ranges. I like GC because I played with this pair a couple of times with tight ranges and I got nice RR. |
Agree with you on UC thats where my order is too. I prefer the GBP pin bars and GU over GJ as there is much more room to the FTA on GU..and prefer USD/CHF to EU and EJ (as they are correlated not much point taken them all)...2% risk on each so correlated risk IF they break in play...but if they do break then these are important PPZ areas on daily and 4HR that would have been broken so should at least go to the FTA. I'll be taking som proft at the FTA on all of these and leaving the rest to try and catch a runner.
If these work out then could be some good initial entries to get into an upward retracement...we shall see |
May 18, 2010 2:26am
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Pending orders set (G/U on oanda)
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May 18, 2010 2:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I guess you saw what EJ did last night. Broke the trendline and then it pulled back to weekly PPZ and retest. 133.9 would have been a nice buy.
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Yes indeed...I wold have been all over that if I'd been awake then...would have been a real good entry with small SL if EJ breaks higher |
May 18, 2010 2:31am
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Was speaking to someone last night who reckons Gold will fall a fair bit over the next 2 weeks...just missed a chance to getinto a short from retracement to 1227 PPZ....If EU etc has put in temporary bottoms then Gold should fall as risk appetite increases people will take profit on gold (especially as it's off it 1250 high) andmove money into 'risker' assets as the strong bull move in gold has been lead by it's flight to safety status....makes sense to me.
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May 18, 2010 2:35am
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PV / breakout style trade on Oil - 1.5% at risk
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May 18, 2010 2:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
It does make sense, but keep in mind that there aren't good news on the horizon for EU countries. Odds are there will be more bad news than good ones, so flight to safety is still in play. Some retracements are needed (and they are playing now when there's a calm before the storm I think) but maybe they won't be that hard.
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yeah I know what you mean...and I think the caveat is that there is no more bad news (that is not already known) that will cause 'fear' to come back into the markets and a sell off...these retracements might not happen but if they do then have to be wary and remember how quickly the markets can become bearish again like they did before.
Will be interesting if we can break up today...dow and xxx/usd xxx/jpy is hovering near the resistance areas and PA bar tops with gold on the way down...all good signs just have to wait and see if we get momnetum and keep it...it's been very choppy recently with daily whipsaws from extremes like on the Dow yesterday...I'd love a day of one way movement for a chance lol. |
May 18, 2010 2:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Are you buying GU above 1.45?
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My buy order is above the pin high (1.4551) ...playing the breaks of the pin...but just above 1.45 would be valid to IMO based on 4HR chart. |
May 18, 2010 3:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Should have entered on the BUOBs on H1. That signaled the comeback of buyers. Hope it lasts a few days. But we still have to be careful at FTAs.
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Do you mean this? If so, I'd never take a trade on 1HR bar that looked like that. It might work out obviously, but in itself as a continuation bar this is not a great setup IMO...size of bar, location...all wrong...a good setup would be a really big 1HR bar straddling the 1.4500 round number. If you look back over time at 1HR bars which are in middle of nowhere and not a great size with no other confluence then you'll find that you cannot take these and consistently make pips. Not having a go but just be careful with bars like this...this was a very easy pass for me and I'm not a conservative trader |
May 18, 2010 3:21am
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Went long AJ, GJ, EJ - PV type trades...1% each.
Be back later...need to concentrate and watch my trades...currently long EG, AJ, GJ, EJ, oil and short UC.
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May 18, 2010 4:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning,
I hope you guys are right on G/U cause technically it is not a PB. I am in the E/G and U/C from yesterday pending on U/Ch and G/U.
BTW, LJ where is the cake ? 100 pages !!! Congratulations. |
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May 18, 2010 4:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
Morning guys
u guys r already in eg, won't it be best to wait fir a break first
it's definately ready to pop, hope it pops ur way cos it just might be explosive
also hope u hav ur stops in place
I'm on the bench here,see how it develops
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I exited my EG long before the news...I took on on breakout of 1HR triangle yesterday but had no motivation...news caused it to go tpo where my TP was 0.8580...oh well, it was 50:50 shot with the news. |
May 18, 2010 4:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Maybe I spoke too soon.
Anyway, have you tried the manager LJ? I think it only manages the last trade from what I can see. Not really sure, because price runs away from my profit target.
GU is having a tough time breaching 1.45, even with good news. |
It's not good news...infaltion pressure is normally good cos it leads to icreases in interest rates...but thats bad in the current econonmic climate as government doesnt want to raise rates and now has the added problem of infaltionary pressure...a tough position to be in. UK is the only member of EU that has inflationary pressure.
Yes tried it and got it running on USD / SEK short so he how it goes.
Oil other trades ok...lacking upside momentum at the moment...but if you look at 1 HR chart on most pairs we have higher lows and a rising TL which indicates price should berak and hold above the PPZ areas that they are having problems to break at the moment...I've taken some trades based on daily PA and some on 1HR PV trading.
Short E/CAd triggered but is the worse performing which is puzzling considering oil is rising...oh well will let it play itself out.
Hoping oil can reach 72.60 this time.
U/CHf and UC daily pins triggered. |
May 18, 2010 4:57am
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equity futures turning down now...another choppy reversal day then. grrr
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May 18, 2010 5:01am
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This was my EG trade...entered on breakout and pullback...lacked any momentum and it's a 50:50 chance with news that it could go either way so exited...of course it went up and hit my initial TP.
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May 18, 2010 5:12am
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1HR BEOB on GU and 4HR pin...hmmm not lookinh too good for GBP longs...rising 1hr TL on GU...if it breaks I'm short.
If current 4H bar on Uc clsoeas a pin with close above the PPZ then again I'm out of my daily short and going long.
Nothing is straightforward in the current markets! lol
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May 18, 2010 5:28am
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If we break the rising TL's on the 1HR chart on AJ, GJ, GU, EJ, EU etc then I'm cutting all xxx/usd and xxx/jpy longs...if we break these then we should retest yesterdays lows and the this mornings action would have been fake breaks higher. It sure is a tough market to work out at the moment.
Silver looks good to go short with SL above 19.00 and FTA18.60 IMO...
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May 18, 2010 5:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I just noticed this. How have you been able to place an order on CLM0 ? Yesterday it was the last day for new position. In my FxPro it is already closed.
Strange
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Er Dunno...it worked on mine...for future reference when do the futures change? Is the new one CLNO? I've got both on my platform. |
May 18, 2010 6:06am
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Didnt like the close on the 4HR UC pin so given it a pass and will let my daily short play itself out.
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May 18, 2010 6:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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Excellent thanks have bookmarked this...explans why I can still trade CLMO...but will switch to CLNO tonight. |
May 18, 2010 7:15am
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Regretting not getting in on gold shorts now...profit taking and increasing risk sentiment is causing it to drop pretty fast.
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May 18, 2010 7:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ you often use the phrase "risk sentiment" and I am not sure I fully understand it. Could you please elaborate it more? Does it translate like: risk propension (supposing the word exists in English) ?
Tx
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I dont know what propension means but an alternative word to sentiment would be appetite so appetite for risk...if people have appetiite for risk equities goes up as do the higher yileding currencies like AU, AJ etc if risk appetiite disappears equitiy markets goes down, USD, JPY and Gold go up....thats a very basic correlation obviously. |
May 18, 2010 9:43am
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It is indeed very slow and choppy price action at the moment...patience and discipline is imperative in these situationa....I'm currently long EU, EJ, short UC , UCHF, GCHF and long YM
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May 18, 2010 9:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
It's hard to know you've got trades going and you see contradicting patterns on lower TFs. Something to work on...
EM: with long term trend, fib, EMA, better than previous pins. Only that it's going straight into BRN and PPZ. So I'm going to move stops quick.
Stops on all pairs were placed behind left eye or 61.8 fib of pin or some other PPZ off of H4 or H1. I started moving them up/down.
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Yeah its hard at time when the market is moving dead slow to not scroll down the time frames...but what I do is just leave them and do something else and set alerts or pop back once in a while...I've done more non trading stuff today than I have in a long time...mainly got the same trades I opened at the start of the day waiting for some movement. |
May 18, 2010 10:04am
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Lets see if this trade manager works like I want it too...taking 50% off the table @ PPZ and moving SL to BE on remainder.
GU is winding up...some IB's on 4HR charts...I'm never keen to play IB's...but I'm gonna play the GU and UJ 4HR IB...both are winding up for a move.
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May 18, 2010 10:29am
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If the market continues to be this choppy and slow moving then I'm going to stop looking at the 1HR charts for trades and just trade off the 4hr charts...that way you miss all the chop and just catch a main move rather than 1Hr whipsaws...I'll monitor this afternoon and tomorrow but 1HR is so hard to trade right now I'm definitely looking at the bigger picture when taking trades and looking to hold for a while and ride out the lower time frame whipsaws ie.e. all my postions at the moment (apart form the daily setups) are based on the fact dow hit support and has bounced up and the fact we have a slow retracement on xxx/usd and xxx/jpy and slow moving TL's and I'm willing to hold them until my charts prove me wrong.
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May 18, 2010 10:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I've ordered it about 3 months ago, from amazon, along with 6 other books. First shipment hasn't arrived and has returned to them, the second shipping was due May 11, a week ago... It's the second time this happened. I'm going to stop ordering from amazon.
Stopped out on EM and UC... Not long till GJ hits SL and then EJ... What a bad day.
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I'm waiting to see if dow futures will hold below 10620.
UC is a bit annoying...wanted it to hit 1.0215 before taking some prift and moving to BE |
May 18, 2010 11:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
It happens when the US traders start their daily work in WS. Some panic selling just in case !!.
P.S. I ordered it from Amazon UK. Last time Amazon US charged me with duty fees without any prove of them. I also had problem with their deliveries. Things like you are at home and they are saying they did not find anybody.
LJ sorry if sometime we are not sticking to the subject of your journal. Please feel free to reprimand us.  |
it's more the last hour of european trade...it's happened last fews days in last hour of european...New york its approaching lunch time soon.
Ha, no it's fine...I've only ever had great things from amazon in UK, use it regularly for my books. Next on my list to read is Al brooks book...I have a book from Pring on day trading and thuoght it was utter rubbish so not keen to read his other books...but i've heard that the price patterns one is his best. |
May 18, 2010 11:11am
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Decided to cut my UC short when it went above 1.0300...very frustrating as it didnt go to where you would expect the first major hurdle was...a winner turning into a loss is always hard to take...oh well moving on.
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May 18, 2010 11:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Al Brooks is good but it is almost all based on 5 min charts. Before buying it PM me so you can have an idea. |
Would the same ideas he applies to 5 min charts be applicable on the longer timeframes though?
I have it already just havent read it yet...I have a load of books but dont read that often and only want to read books that will help in my trading / learning etc. |
May 18, 2010 12:10pm
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5 hourly gains in dow and xxx/jpy etc all undone by 1hour of down movement down...and taking all my profit for the day with it.
Definitely only looking at the 4HR and above charts from tomorrow...this type of market is extremely hard to trade the lower timeframes IMO...capital preservation and taking the longer term good setups holding trades for longer is my method until we get less choppy price more trendy price action...I hate these daily random dow sell offs...whats the betting it'll do what it did yesterday when it closed in the positive after being 140 pips down
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May 18, 2010 12:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ just for a comparison purpose on Money M., I d like to ask you the following , based on your trading rules/style, in the last week/month:
- What has been your average take profit in pips.
_ Average SL in pips.
I know you keep track of all your trades so you should have this info, but please you do not have to answer straight away.
Tx
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This would be quite hard for me to do because I stopped keeping an exact record of all trades as it did not have any use for me...I just keep a track of the end p&l in a spreadsheet...but my SL's are dfinitely much higher the last couple weeks as volatility has increased and my TP is much lower too...my %R on average has been really poor over the last 2 weeks compared to when I started the journal...just not been able to get any runners or any really good low risk entries.
If you explain what you want to know / compare etc I'll do my best to go through some of my trades or stats etc at some point? |
May 18, 2010 12:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
On my to-do list is a database in Microsoft Access that tracks every kind of statistic available about trades. Something like https://www.stocktickr.com/
It's going to take a while (weeks, months) since I forgot everything I knew about Access, but I'm going to post it here in the end (well, if you keep this journal 'till then).
Have you started watching Floored? http://www.babelgum.com/floored/ It's interesting. |
No, i'll check it out at some point |
May 18, 2010 1:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Again Please do not go crazy on this.
I just wanted to understand on average when you take profit (how many pips).
I do not like to take partial profit, that's me and I tend to hold my trades for a longer time with respect to you. I also take less positions.
But ... your style looks to be profitable, so my question is: on average when did you take profit?
Please take into account I know you are always looking to the first TA but that is the reason I would like to have a number to compare.
Did I explain myself? Not sure.
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Its' hard to say as I take setups mainly on 1HR, 4HR and daily, so obviously the longer the time frame the larger the number of pips profit and SL etc. I dont have a set number of stops I take profit it's all bearing in mind S/R levels ahead.
I like to take partial profit as I dont like to see a trade hit a trouble area and reverse for a loss...so I prefer to take some profit and leave some on the table or if we are i a deep trend I'll add on a break of the said support / resistance etc.
But as a guide in the current market my stops are about 50 pips n xxx.usd and up to 100pips on xxx/jpy. profits have been low as just havent been able to catch a runner...oil has been my best trade of the week so far and that was about 60 pips profit and my worse has been oil too at -50 ...I rarely take a full loss on an intraday setup as will cut if I feel my initial thinking no longer applies which is normally before my SL |
May 18, 2010 1:25pm
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Okay, from tomorrow I'm going to change my trading for the time being to the following:
1. Taking majority of trades and 4HR and daily unless a really good setup on the 1HR.
2. Take all profit / partial profit / protect current profit when US market opens and during last hour of european trading.
These seemingly random dow sell offs are really hurting my trades...was in some decent profit today and all wiped out in 1 hour earlier and taken mostly losses allday now...not good and I can trade when the dow is having a random sell of or whipsaw, so will avoiud taking trades during US market where possible and protect profit from trades already open when the US markets gets into gear.
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May 18, 2010 1:41pm
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right apart from my EUR/CAD trade I'm flat for the day now...a really bad day...my worse single day for about 7 months I reckon. I was acually about 3-4% up for the day at one point until we got the dow sell off...
Suffered losses on the daily setups - UC, UCHF, USD/SEK - all were in profit and all got very close to my take some profit and move SL to BE and then reversed. Took full setup losses on the latter 2.
Suffered losses also on intra-day longs on EU,EJ and AJ
Had a winning trade on oil earlier and out at BE on UJ 4HR IB andsmall profit on GU IB.
Overall I lost about 6% of my account today.
The dow moves intraday are just baffling...the dax and ftse have been steady the last few days and the UK and eurozone is in a much worse position that the US...they seem to be random and impulsive panic selling rather than a structured market move. Either way I cannot trade whislt the US session is causing these moves so will be relucant to have trades open during this market unless they are longer term trades.
back tomorrow.
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May 18, 2010 2:53pm
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Okay...today has been a realy sh*t day...it can happen and it has happened. I've made every mistake possible IMO today...I've been over my trades and had a fresh look at all my intraday charts with a clear head and how I would have approached them again...and below is some of the trades I could and should have made today in accordance with my rules...most of them are self explanatory to people that have been follownig my thread...a mixture of PA, touch trades and breakouts with the trend....so simple in retrospect.
I think my problem has been that I've had a set direction in mind and I have to start ignoring equity markets somewhat as I'm too focussed on them and just try and keep it simple and just trade what I see in accordance with my rules...I'm trying to be too clever and analytical.
I find that really hard at times as my mind is full of bias and thoughts but I really do need to get back to looking at a chart and just doing what it is telling me to do bearing in mind correlation and equity markets and commodities but not lettnig them rule my trades.
Charts to follow...
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May 18, 2010 3:04pm
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May 18, 2010 3:07pm
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...
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May 18, 2010 3:11pm
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2 current trades:
1. touch trade on gold...PPZ, TL and 50 fib...pull the trigger.
2. E/CAD - this triggered some hours ago but is now in profit...trend trade...break off consolidation.
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May 18, 2010 4:39pm
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Moved stop to BE on gold and E/CAD...would have taken partial profit on gold but am trading minimum lot size so can't...have put a pending order short if gold breaks the support level with SL just above the MA (allowing for spread). If it comes back and hits SL then so be it I'm willing to give this trade some room
With regards E/CAD the trend is strongly down so happy to let this one go...it might come back up and retest the previous support ...if it does I'll re-enter with a tighter stop and more risk as initial stop was relatively large.
Once my spreadbetting accounts are up and running I'll start trading commodities, equities and oil via spreadbetting as should be much easier and much lower minimum 'bet' size.
Right off to sleep to get refreshed for tomorrow...have had a very expensive lesson today....two more rules to add to my list:
1. Always look at the market objectively without any preconceived bias and trade what your charts tell you at all times....dont over analyse things...trading is simple if I just trade my setups.
2. Follow my rules at all times. lol
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May 19, 2010 1:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
seems i got up before everybody, shish! ill try not to make noise then
quick update to my cadjpy trade
hey neutro, my breakevenexpert activated while my system was off...lol
ok ill be back
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Nice one
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May 19, 2010 1:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Moved stop to BE on gold and E/CAD...would have taken partial profit on gold but am trading minimum lot size so can't...have put a pending order short if gold breaks the support level with SL just above the MA (allowing for spread). If it comes back and hits SL then so be it I'm willing to give this trade some room
With regards E/CAD...
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Gold bounced back up and hit my SL on initial touch trade and thus out at BE before sailing down through the support at second attempt and triggering second order. Will move to BE now.
Shame I wasnt awake otherwise I would have reentered the touch trade again and woulld be in a decent %R profit now. As it is I'm about 1.5R in profit but reckon gold will move lower so willing to try and catch a runner (normally I'd take some profit but cant as I'm trading minimum lot sze).
E/CAD came back up and I've just missed gettin back in...i.e. price came back retested old support as resistance...hmmmm maybe I should have left my SL above the S/R as we are in a strong down trend...
Anyway simple stuf really...just shame I was asleep so couldnt get new entries in.
Havent reviewed any other charts yet. |
May 19, 2010 2:12am
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Decided to exit Gold for some profit...no point in taking two BE trades on it...want to show some $ for my effort lol. Will re-enter if we retrace back to resistance or if we break 1206.95 support.
Result + 0.72R
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May 19, 2010 4:05am
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EUR / AUD...broke above PPZ and retest...initial target round number - 1% at risk.
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May 19, 2010 4:19am
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Another attempt @ E/CAD...not convinced this PPZ will hold but worth ashot.
Two other pending orders on very trendy pairs...looking to take breaks of support to get in on the strong down trend...PV style trading.
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May 19, 2010 4:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I thought to post this.
This is where yesterday we all had some problem.
Difficult to foresee it but not impossible. A pure breakout, no re-test. Can it happen again today ?
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That was a nice break! I tend to not go down further than the 1HR when looking at my pairs unless we are at a BRN and/or strong PPZ and I'm looking for some PA to give me a clue.
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May 19, 2010 4:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EUR / AUD...broke above PPZ and retest...initial target round number - 1% at risk.
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Took full profit here...cant take partial profit otherwise would have liked to have closed 50% and moved SL to BE+10....end result +1.79R (1% @ risk)
PV style trade on UC. |
May 19, 2010 4:37am
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Cut E/CAD...PPZ didnt hold. -0.84R (2% @ risk)
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May 19, 2010 4:40am
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Missed the touch trade on gold but a 1HR pin bar would be nice
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May 19, 2010 4:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Took full profit here...cant take partial profit otherwise would have liked to have closed 50% and moved SL to BE+10....end result +1.79R (1% @ risk)
PV style trade on UC.
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Doh...once funds have transferred to my other brokers I'll be able to take partial profits again...look at it soar...high volatility this morning, not loolking to enter news trades unless something good crops up with this volatility...its great if you're in positons with the trend but not the best time to enter...A/CAD and U/CAD are my two active trades that have triggered.
I'm also watching gold and silver carefully, pin bar on gold hopefully and silver looks like breaking support. |
May 19, 2010 4:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
What is causing the big move on AUD ? |
General sell of in risk and that normally means the higher interest yielding currencies and the commodity currencies like CAD and AUD get sold off quicker. |
May 19, 2010 4:54am
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Looking for 8800 in ACAD as initial target
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May 19, 2010 5:06am
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Gold pin bar...1.5% at risk and also taken break of silver support with SL above previous bar high (taken this trade on a spreadbetting account I'm trying out) 1% risk.
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May 19, 2010 5:10am
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Gold has hit the first problem area @ 1211.50 but I'm willing to give it some room and aiming for a retest of support @ 1207
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May 19, 2010 5:19am
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gonna give the 4HR BEOB on A/xxx, n/xxx and uj a miss and go for this oin instead...could have gone in at retest of the PPZ marked but would rather play safe at the moment and wait for the break...SL above PPZ and MA. 1.5% @ risk.
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May 19, 2010 5:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ, A PB with a lot of space and faraway TA. LOL
Just kidding you know how to handle it.
I am in Silver breakout trade. Expensive !!
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Ha, yes we are in a range...but CHF is a save haven so I'm confident it will get to FTA and am looking for the second area ultimately. Looking back NZD/CHF would have been a better shout...BEOB and NZD will weaken faster than GBP will against CHF due to reasons I mentioned above.
Then again me and G/CHF really dont have good history! |
May 19, 2010 5:44am
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Moved SL down on gold to just above PPZ...looking to give it room to try and break the support level below...thus added a pending short order if it does indeed break it.
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May 19, 2010 6:02am
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should have looked at silver chart in more detail...not liking the trouble areas below and its just hit 50% fib on 17-20 move...my first target is 18.40 area, then 18.00
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May 19, 2010 6:06am
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Second gold order triggered ...1200 then 1192 are targets
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May 19, 2010 6:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
EU is not really moving, waiting for US session?
If it drops again than Silver and Gold will retrace.
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Yeah EUR and GBP are relatively strong compared to the higher yielding currencies and commodiity currencies.
I've exited Silver trade for small profit...not comfortable with all that consolidaiton that existed previously whenn price was there...plsu want to concentrate on managing current trades.
Have to be careful with gold when equioties moving down as you can get a big move up suddenly on risk haven play...like yesterday we had a strong move up from 1212 to 1226 in one hour...I'm concious of this and am looking to take profit if we go above the 1207 PPZ area again or if we get to 1200. The bears defintel have control but you cant rule out some sudden bullish moves before new sellers come in. |
May 19, 2010 6:26am
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Look @ E/A go...nearly 200 pips higher than where I took profit...had no real choice though if it had rebounced I would have been annoyed at not takinf profit...the ideal thing to do would have been to take 25-50% off the table...I'm really fond of taking partial profits as it overcomes the desire to bank some money whilst seeing if you can catch a runner and aslo overcomes the decision as to what to do if you get to a potential strong problem area...a nice solution is to bank some profits and let the rest play itself out (whilst moving SL to BE or above) etc.
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May 19, 2010 6:29am
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Sl to BE+1 on A/CAD and U/CAD...TP on A/CAD is 0.8805 which is weekly PPZ...but I might see if it will run further depending on how we appraoch this areas.
U/CAD I'm watching to see if it can pop above 1.0500 - the previous bars are strong bull bars so it would take some really big selling volume to push it back down.
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May 19, 2010 6:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Ready to break
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A definite strong clear area...problem is we have divergence and its quite a wide area (the PPZ) so hard to pin point an entry if trying to play the break. |
May 19, 2010 6:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
A definite strong clear area...problem is we have divergence and its quite a wide area (the PPZ) so hard to pin point an entry if trying to play the break.
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A good sign though that a breaklower will occur is not getting a quick rejection back up...nearly all other times we've appraoched this area price has has quickly retraced back up...I doubt this time we'll have strong buying power in the current market to get a retrace back up...so I'd say this a higher chance of breaking than it has previously....if that all makes sense. |
May 19, 2010 6:46am
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Glad I got out of Silver trade...have moved SL on both trades on gold to 1209.20
Would have liked to play this if it wasnt for the divergence...4HR BEOB off a daily and 4HR PPZ with the trend...isnt the best sized bar but if we didnt have the divergence I'd be in this...look at all that space!
Will watch to see if it retests the PPZ and might enter a short there with tight SL and see if we can explode down...if it approached this area near US open this might be ideal.
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May 19, 2010 6:54am
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Exited both gold trades...dont like the way its retracing to form a 1HR pin bar and its gone back above the PPZ...I was looking for it to reject this area quickly but it didnt. Exited both around 1208 area for a net gain 0.75%...shame it couldnt have got to 1200.
Also exited UC near the round number...was looking for a quick push above with momentum but it's stalled.
Still in G/CHF and A/CAD.
As per yesterday posts being cautious about open trades when going into US session...plsu I've got to go out for the next 90 mins so prefer to takes some profit than see it disappear....might be being over cautious but profit banked is not better than coming back to losers on BE which, in the current volatility is not exactly unlikely. lol
Back in couple hours.
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May 19, 2010 6:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Exited both gold trades...dont like the way its retracing to form a 1HR pin bar and its gone back above the PPZ...I was looking for it to reject this area quickly but it didnt. Exited both around 1208 area for a net gain 0.75%...shame it couldnt have got to 1200.
Also exited UC near the round number...was looking for a quick push above with momentum but it's stalled.
Still in G/CHF and A/CAD.
As per yesterday posts being cautious about open trades when going into US session...plsu I've got to go out for the next 90 mins so prefer to takes...
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May 19, 2010 7:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre
cool, I shorted too at the place of your second position, closed half near bar low, and the rest stopped at BE.
what is your view on gold now? it closed as a bullish pin on my feed. I don't like the top [open=high], don't know why, just makes it not like a good pin which has a high protrude from the open. also, the space issue as Mike mentioned today, could be a problem. but, to be honest, I am biased to long of gold, just feel this hourly pin doesn't makes sense yet
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I'm not keen on trading against the current down move...not much space to FTA on that pin plus would have preferred close to be higher than open...if I were to take it my SL would be bellow the PPZ it just broke back above and I'd be quick to take profit at FTA or move to BE...I think the safer option is to sell any retraces at the moment in gold |
May 19, 2010 9:11am
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TP hit on G/CHf which was FTA...since then we've had whats looks like SNB intervention so glad I exited @ FTA. A/CAD just hit SL which I'd moved to BE+1.
Summary of all this mornings trades as follows:
Short Gold @ 1218 SL 90, Exit @ 1214.85 = +31.5 / +0.35R
Long EUR / AUD @ 1.4237, SL 38, Exit @ 1.4312 = +75 / +1.97R
Short E/CAD @ 1.2709, SL 31, Exit @ 1.2735 = -26 / -0.84R
Short Gold @ 1205.30, SL 39, exit @ 1207.80 = -25 / -0.64R
Short Gold @ 1214.00, SL 65, Exit @ 1208.10 = +59 / +0.91R
Long U/C @ 1.0449, SL 74, Exit @ 1.0499 = +50 / +0.67R
Short G/CHF @ 1.6394, SL 65, Exit @ 1.6359 = +35 / 0.54
Short Silver @ 18.51, SL 29, Exit @ 18.48 = +3 / 0.10R
Short A/CAD @ 0.8884,SL 71, Exit @ 0.8883 = +1 / 0.01R
Gonna start recording summaries like the above for my own revieing purposes.
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May 19, 2010 9:21am
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Let's see if this TL can hold as resistance...YM is also at resistance level too. Dont like the strong bullish bar leading up to it, but worth some risk IMO.
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May 19, 2010 9:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Let's see if this TL can hold as resistance...YM is also at resistance level too. Dont like the strong bullish bar leading up to it, but worth some risk IMO.
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Hmmm fxpro closed my position randomly...how weird?! Closed for a tiny loss grrrr...phoned them and they dont know why it happened. |
May 19, 2010 9:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
A/U broke 0.85 BRN and it is now re-testing it. A nice PA at this level would be nice.
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Yeah that would have been nice.
I liked this but wasnt quick enough...divergence up against a daily / weekly PPZ area.
Gold also hit 1HR PPZ and reversed hard.and has shot through the 1200 area |
May 19, 2010 10:02am
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Crikey look at gold go...damn!
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May 19, 2010 10:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Crikey look at gold go...damn!
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Reason I didnt take the gold was it would have broken my rules...taking a trade based on only a PPZ on the 1HR chart is not in my rules I would need something else in addition i.e. fib....doh there was fib confluence....grrrr now I'm peeved lol |
May 19, 2010 10:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Why did you close it. it was in a descending triangle with support at 1210 and it was not making new highs ?
Hey! do not get me wrong here. You made some pips and that is the most important thing. |
Cos it broke above 1207 which I had as a PPZ level...a mcuh stronger level in theory than that 1HR PPZ...I was expecting the 1207 level to be rejected when it wasnt I closed...should have maybe taken a longer term view...its a fine line at times...its hit 1192 PPZ now. |
May 19, 2010 10:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
BTW you said yesterday that a guy gave you a tip on Gold moving down. Could you contact him again on some other pairs too ? |
It wasnt a tip it was just his thoughts...he is also short from 1245!! |
May 19, 2010 10:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Apart from the accident you had, is your FxPro working well today ? Mine is really slow switching between charts and TFs. I already restarted the PC but nothing changed.
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It seems ok today...I do have problems with it though I find it randomly loses connection on both of my computers (whilst Alpari, Oanda and spread betting platforms remain fine) |
May 19, 2010 10:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
A/U short 0.8375 BOut trade. Target 0.815
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I like this...might need a wide ish SL though volatility is high...CHF pairs are taking off...intervention again? |
May 19, 2010 11:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I believe Euro is penalized at the moment with respect to Chf and Gbp. Just read this morning German Goverment banned short selling of shares and EU Bond
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yeah that was an unexpected knee jerk reaction last night that caused the dow to sell off. SNB have intervended to defend the 1.4 area on E/CHf taking ...happens every now and again...hence ehy I'm reluctant to trade chf pairs. |
May 19, 2010 11:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ are you playing wheat?
Take a look at this PB |
lol no...I dont like charts that have lots of extreme moves or gaps like that...nor pairs where I dont know enough about the fundamentals...i.e. whhat to wathc for that can move the market e.g. with NFP and USD etc. |
May 19, 2010 11:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You know, this morning I was very close to put a buy order on E/Chf. Very tiny SL, so no risk. I know nobody trade this pair but look what I missed. R:R 1:30.
What a shame. |
I actually was thinking the same...but when I've done this in the past I've been caught out on a whipsaw and its been a nightmare trying to close the trade...sometimes in the past we've had a move down first before shooting up...and both time I've ttried to catch this i've ended up losing - the other time my order got hit but tried to close it manually and just kept getting requoted. |
May 19, 2010 11:54am
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Decided to go long UC...plenty of trends on all the pairs but volatility high and thus chances of quick reversals and whipsaws high...plus I cant really like any pin point entries I like ()apart from UCHF which I missed).
I've taken two trades...one with 50 pips SL below the round number as per chart and one on Oanada with wider SL below the current bar i.e. 1.0400 area 1% risk on each.
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May 19, 2010 11:58am
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If it wasnt for the strong move down I'd favour a long position on gold now...
Tempting...
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May 19, 2010 12:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
a friend actually told me he was long eurchf yday at about 14000, he asked for my opinion....i told him i wouldnt touch it, mkt seemed dead waiting for some big moves, i seriously hope he didnt take my advice lol
gave back my profit today & now in about -3% loss for this week, giving back my profit sucks
yeah, also countertrending even when you have decent bars in highly volatile mkt cld be a real killer.....
ucad short 4hr pin, & audjpy 4hr pin killed me today but not fazed yday.....
made about 20% last wk on demo but only about 5% live
anyways...
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yeah counter trending when we have very big down moves and are having a general sell off is dangerous which I found out yesterday...sticking with the trend is best bet when we have such strong down moves as PA on counter trend moves is very unlikely to hold up. I lost near 6% yesterday counter trend trading!
Something else I've been learning is in a market sell of how much commodities are sold...we can see oil, gold and silver have been sold off but some metals like palladium or platinum (one of the two) is down 10% today! Something I'm going to bear in mind in future...if we are having a sell of in risk then commodities fall the most...selling an ETF is probably the easiest way to do this. |
May 19, 2010 12:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uksnowman
Hi, would you consider playing this break of long term support straight away or wait for the retest (or both)?
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I'm looking at this too and trying to work out the best way to play this...next support on dow futures is 10250 area so room to run wihch should take AJ with it...I'm considering playing a break...but with entry around 75.80-90...more of a speculative play on the current trend than anything specific. |
May 19, 2010 12:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I'm looking at this too and trying to work out the best way to play this...next support on dow futures is 10250 area so room to run wihch should take AJ with it...I'm considering playing a break...but with entry around 75.80-90...more of a speculative play on the current trend than anything specific.
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Like UC two entries 1% on each both at 75.90 one with SL @ 76.60 and one with SL @ 78.50
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May 19, 2010 1:18pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Hey guys.
I was lurking around here today, but couldn't post having a lot of work to do.
Well, to say it short and simple, today I lost 12% of my demo (thank god ) in 3 trades... Long silver (miscalculated lot sizing and ended up risking 10% instead of 1%...), long S&P and long GC (well, I won 1% here). Man, I'm so tired, haven't had a decent sleep in ages...
I've marked gold today in the morning as to sell at 1220 (fib, PPZ, EMA, with trend) but when price reached that level I was away... Bummer. It all went downhill from there.
Good news... |
What rule did I break?
Yeah I've looked at that...nice and simple...but aggresive lot sizing...when trading like that its best just to put the trade on and then close down MT4 and let it go...thats pretty much what he/she has done just played some trends with aggresive lot sizing. I'm glad they are above the chap trading an EA that takes advantage of different broker prices.
Let me know how you get on with the book when you've read a bit...I dont get much time to read...but if it sounds good then I'll find time to read it. |
May 19, 2010 1:20pm
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Stopped out on my aggresive UC long...prices are taking a pause at the moment...gathering momentum for a push higher, maybe, we'll see. Same with AJ etc...support holding for the moment.
Leaving other UC trade in play and orders on AJ too.
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May 19, 2010 1:21pm
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Gold rebounded from its confluenced area I highlighted earlier...still glad I didnt take it after that strong move down...too risky for me.
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May 19, 2010 1:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uksnowman
yes could be an interesting one. Only thing that concerns me is the stop would need to be very large if you were to keep it above the last s/r level. With such a violent downmove, do you normally move your stop in quickly to protect against a quick reversal?
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Yeah indded it does...you can see how I've played it in my previous post.
I'm looking for it to break hard down through this area...it is holding at the moment but it could just be building up momentum for a big push down...we shall see. If it pushed down hard through it then I'd want to move my SL quite quickly to above the PPZ it broke. |
May 19, 2010 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I can bet my house just on his thoughts, he is a little "CRYPTIC" though.
P.S no my shorts were not based on this I think I was short before LJ posted that.lol |
lol.
Nice simple trading yesterday Nasir...shows that if you play with the trend then the volatility can sure help...shame I was too slow to realise this lol.
Haven't looked in detail but are they all with roughly 2-3% risk per trade? |
May 19, 2010 1:31pm
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Breakout or reversal...I know which one I'd put my money on...
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May 19, 2010 1:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, you said you were going to play H4.
And I thought EC didn't follow your breakout rules but it does in a way. Not entirely though because the retest didn't follow through (it broke, then retested and fell a bit, than came up and it didn't go down, it's a double retest in the same bar - you missed the first retest and went for the second).
Hope you don't mine me nagging. You did very well today considering market conditions. |
I see what you mean on EC...it actually went ot the first FTA on the 1HR and then reversed in the same bar and I got in then...although I showed the 1HR chart I was actually trading off the 4HR but its clearer to see on the 1HR...but maybe I should have noticed that.
Yeah I know I played some 1HR stuff but I was much more cautious with them and also had my bias for the trade with the trend on 4HR and above so that gave me the confidence to pull the trigger...unlike yesterday where I was to focussed on the little one hour trends and not the much bigger picture.
Just looked at E/AUd...man that would have made my day holding that...never mind |
May 19, 2010 1:54pm
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Looks like we are gong to retrace and the current PPZ levels will hold for the time being...I'm not counter trending after these large moves and am firmly on the sidelines until tomorrow now.
This afternoons trades as follows:
U/C long @ 1.0533, SL 53, Exit @ 1.04800 = -53 / -1R
C/J short @ 87.12, SL 148, Exit @ 87.50 = - 38 / -0.26R
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May 19, 2010 4:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Yeah they are all near 2%-3%.
Had a nice run today but market took away a little with gold long and others.
But made most of it back with oil long.
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Yeah that gold show down real fast.
Nice work on oil...what made you think that PPZ would hold...I didnt pull the trigger as we blew straight thorough the 72.60 PPZ earlier and the down move is very strong. Do you consider things like that or is it a case of ...see a major daily PPZ, go long? I'm trying to to establish whether I keep over analysing things too much and should be more automatic in my trading...if that makes sense? |
May 19, 2010 4:42pm
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gone long CJ and EU... will post charts and reasoning in the morning.
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May 19, 2010 5:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
CLM 1H will answer most of your questions.
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May 20, 2010 1:57am
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Just opened my charts to see a spike down in xxx/jpy pairs which has triggered my AJ shorts. Still long EU but CJ stopped out earlier.
EUR held up very well yesterday and as we saw on some of the non major pairs like EUR/AUD they soaree very high. I heard talk of ECB intervention but it's only rumour...but all I know is the EUR is the strongest out of the majors at the moment.
Also learning that should give my trend trades a bit more room...A/CAD and gold being a good example looking at todays chart and obviosuly EUR/AUD...though this area is approaching an interesting point now @ 1.5000
Missed the pullback on this but will play a break of the high PV style.
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 20, 2010 2:33am
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May 20, 2010 2:30am
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I am short AJ from 75.90 - 2 positions one with SL of 260 pips and one with SL of 70 pips...be moving to BE soon 1% on each.
The yen is strengthening very fast...the volatility continues!
Postions from last night were long EU @ 1.2407 SL 107 - 1% - look how well EU is holding up when everything else falls. Also CJ long @ 87.86, SL 76, 1% - hit SL a while ago.
My E/CAD long also triggered @ 1.2894, SL 34 - 2% at risk.
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May 20, 2010 2:40am
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Decided to move SL down on the more aggresive AJ entry to 76.25...so still above the PPZ we broke. and leave the conservative entry SL where it is...we are in a deep trend so I need to give it room...my targets are 75 (which we just hit and rebounded), 73.50 and 71 (looking at weekly chart).
Defintely lerning the hard way that when in a deep trend dont be quick to move to BE...its a fine balance between not tletting a winner turn into a loss and knowing when to give the trade some room. As I mentioned if I'd kept my ACAD and Gold trades from yesterday (gold 1Hr pin bar and ACAD break of support @ 8900 ) open I'd be about 13R by now.
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May 20, 2010 3:45am
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This are so choppy right now...I really dont like trading whenwe have choppy price action. I dont see any clear setups at the moment apart from the fact we have strong trends...but with very choppy price action.
My trading hasnt been great in terms of performance over the last 2 weeks so I've decreased the risk I use per trade to around 1% on average this week as I'm not really feeling it at the moment and it seems 2 steps forward 2 steps back on my account...I'm also more cautious as well and am in no rush to take any trades at the moment. Will do a lot of reviewing over the weekend (which is where this journal is helpful) and analysis to try and see where I'm going wrong or where I need to change to adapt to the current market.
EUR is still very strong against the other majors...my E/CAD from this morning is 65 pips up already.
I mentioned earlier in my journal that I wanted to start taking some trend trades based on the daily timeframe pretty much in the style of Jacko / DanUK. This is something I will actively work on over the weekend to establish a) a set of pairs to trade bearing in mind correlated risk and b) potential entry prices. When volatility is high then the trend trades really pull in the pips whilst I decrease the intraday trades and vice versa.
About to get stopped out on one of my AJ shorts 140 pips swing in the first couple hours this morning lol.
I am long E/CAD with initial soft target 1.0395, long EU, took a speculative short E/J with tight SL as we have converging PPZ and TL's but not looking good and I have one more AJ short with a much wider SL. I have a pending long on oil @ 73.30 based on 1HR chart (breakout) and thats it.
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May 20, 2010 4:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning
A/U and to certain extend A/J are the perfect Breakout trades, by the book !
Break of BRN 0.85, re-test and little PB as confirmation of the downtrend.
Unfortunately being scared of missing out, I played it as a pure break of swing low.
Need to stick to the rules more. |
yes that was nice in the current market...EG was the best breakout I saw from my charts...though I was asleep at the time. |
May 20, 2010 4:14am
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Another attempt at EJ short 0.5% risked
Also playing the PA on 1HR UCHF...close first target but should get there...look at all the divergence on the 4HR chart.
1% @ risk.
(all these trades are being taken on Oanda)
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May 20, 2010 4:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Wanted to go long at the marked arrow, but I made a bad trade in GJ following the same confluence points (well, the trade would have been good now if stop was placed below 130 and not at 130.6...) and I chickened out of the oil trade...
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yes that would have been good...looks like still ranging..my order hasnt triggered...wanted to put it a clear way above that range to avoid false breakout. |
May 20, 2010 4:24am
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Some of my intraday charts and trading ideas...feel free to comment.
AU - pullback to round number for a short.
AJ - short now.
UC - long above the high
EU - short EJ so wont short this but you can see the idea.
GU and GJ - no trade at the moment.
EG - breakout and pullback for a long?
Looks like I got EJ right at second attempt but this time with less risk at play...lol
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May 20, 2010 4:33am
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EA short pending order...TL, RN, fib confluence ..1HR IB with divergence.
A/CAD pending short missed my 2 pips on a pullback.
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May 20, 2010 4:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
There is a 1h TL you're missing......
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Presume you mean the lower one? Thanks |
May 20, 2010 4:44am
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Sl moved to BE on EJ..looks like I just got too tight on SL's on AJ and EJ shorts first time around.
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May 20, 2010 4:46am
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May 20, 2010 4:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
EG looks promising
Also as you said:
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Thanks! Dont know how I missed that...but that changes things. |
May 20, 2010 4:55am
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EJ out @ BE...the EUR is so strong and looks like it want to break higher. Equity markets are not really doing much either.
Gold is sitting on TL and PPZ...having broken the forme earlier today.
Looks like missed the boat on EG long.
I've actually started taking trades on a demo account for the major currencies against each other i.e. EG, EA, EN, EC etc so I can more easily see which pairs are the strongest...ther eis probably an indicator that does this but at the moment this s a simple way to see out of GBP, EUR, NZD, AUD and AD which ones are the strongest relative to each other....EUR is by far the strongest today.
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May 20, 2010 4:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
yesh....
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Thanks...wouldnt have taken oil long without that...of course if it turns into a losing trade... lol...just kidding. |
May 20, 2010 5:29am
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EG long trade triggered - 2%...now fly to the moon!
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May 20, 2010 5:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I ma pretty sure Neutro would come up with something better... but he is studying at the moment LOL.
Hope it helps
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Thanks, I'll check this out.
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May 20, 2010 6:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm sorry for the rant, but I was getting frustrated.
I know it's after the fact analysis but it's still valid non the less...
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nice analysis...I know what you mean, I'm looking at some of these strong trends and am baffled why I've made a loss this week! Trending markets are supposed to be the easiest to trade...but the volatility and choppy price action has made it hard to trade the lower TF as we've had a lot of whipsaws...trading the bigger picture trends based on the daily time frames is defintely something I wish I had started a few weeks ago in addition to my intraday trading as this would have been very proiftable.
It's been a very tough week for me, defintely the worse since the start of my journal...but thats the nature of this business ...its an ongoing battle and the market is ever changing. After the oil trade I asked myself why I took it...the setup was clear but the big thing at the moment is we are in strong trends, the trend is down so why am I going long lol. |
May 20, 2010 7:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Any opinion is good, don't think that I've got more experience than you.
Thing is, even though I read a lot of post saying that you should do one system at a time to get comfortable with and experiment and what not, I tried to rush things. At first it was OK, I had my D&up journal, my touch trade one, my PV one. But after 2 or 3 weeks of doing 10 things at the same time, from 7 AM to 10PM you start losing it and everything gets so confused in your head that it just blows up. And you go look at your charts and you realize that 3 weeks have past...
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I like that last sentence...it is so true...playing a trend is supposed to be the simplest way of making pips...the hard part has been the volatility we have had...if you are already in a daily trend then you've made a lot or if you trade like a bank or hedge fund and just take a lnog term view then fine but finding specific entries to get into a trend using price action and S/R etc has been hard over the last 2 weeks on the higher TF IMO
Look @ daily chart of EU there is no obvious place to get into the trend from 1.3000 downwards...no really clear setup...so what do we do just place a blind trade hoping the trend will continue...hell no...and we are also 'taught' not to catch a falling knife, so its about being patient and disciplined and waiting for those setups to come to us.
It has been tough this week thats for sure...price action isn't as clean or reliable and when the dow is rising and then falling hard (ever since the big sell off we had a couple of weeks ago) its not been reliable as a confluence factor...I barely look at it now...just for reference.
But take a look at Nasirs myfxbook trades from I think tuesday (the day i had a big loss) combined with the charts I posted about what trades I should have taken...there were plenty of setups on 4HR which were in line with the daily trend and from what I saw Nasir played them well and made a big chunk of pips using what is considered normal money management.
It is human nature to get frustrated and lose heart when things go against us, but in no business is it plain sailing, there are up and down times but dedication, perserverence, patience and discipline get us through it...this week just makes me even more determined to overcome my faults and errors that I seem to have made...it wasnt long ago I was making 100% a week...this week will likely be a loss and I feel like I couldnt make 5% a week let alone 100%...but failure is never an option.
My advice would be stick with it...you are on demo and that is what demo is for...write out some rules, go back over your charts for the whole week, review everyone of your trades and the setups you missed and most importantly have a relaxing weekend, refresh and come back rejuvinated and focussed next week completely detaching yourself from what happened this week.
When I had my big losses on Tuesday I was at my wits end...I was saying to myself how I can go from making 100% in a week to losing 6% in a day...is it me, is it the markets...am I not adapting to the market, am I over analysing things, should I stop, am I stressed out am I feeling too much pressure to succeed etc etc when you are losing it seems like every setup just doesnt work...the oil trade being a good example and even my EG trade came to within 2pips of losing...and that was a great breakout and pullback trade (now its near 2% up phew! lol). Even today AJ is now 60 pips up on my really conservative entry with 200 ish pip SL where I lost on the aggresive entry which would now be 2% in profit compared to a paltry 0.2% that my other one is same with EJ out for a loss and at break even...EUR/AUD yesterday soared over 200 pips after I exited, gold up aboiut 6-7R now if I'd given it more room...that is bl*ody frustrating.
But I've learned to accept it and that you are going to have hard times when you are not completely in tune with the market but as long as you follow your rules, remain patient and discplined, using proper money management and dont let emotions affect your trading then I know I'll be fine and the good times will come again when I'm making pips all day long. I've learned that when I'm trading badly or jsut dont seem to get winners I either take a break, relax or go do soemthing I enjoy to set my mind free and clear and then come back and trade with reduced risk until I'm in the zone again.
I'm waffling now, I'm just trying to say dont lose heart my friend stick with it... |
May 20, 2010 7:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ,
I have the feeling that Aud short and E/G long are kind of conflicting each other. What do you think ? I know they should not but..
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why?? |
May 20, 2010 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
That was my second analysis, of a more long time approach. I'm not saying it will play out, but it's getting there...
This would be the most obvious pattern that a lot of traders will be watching. And if the left shoulder forms, it's the most perfect H&S pattern that you can get. Symmetrical, clean, beautiful. But don't fall in love with it.
Man, I feel relieved of not having to play the H1 anymore... I have more time to digest things... |
Very nice..well spotted...I cant see H&S pattern for sh*t |
May 20, 2010 7:39am
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Morning trade summary...its been frustrating I've basically been too tight with my trades that are with the trend, in pariculat a loss on AJ and EJ and a BE on EJ shoud be decent winners now..tweaking needed.
Short (1%) AJ @ 75.90 SL 70, Exit @ 75.25 - 0.5%
Long (1%) EU 1.2407, SL 55, Exit @ 1.2366 -0.75%
Long (2%) Oil 72.64 SL 36 - 2%
Short EJ (1%) 113.34, SL 36 -1%
Short EJ (1%) 113.35, out @ BE
open trades:
Short (1%) AJ 75.90, SL 250, still open - 70 pips in profit, looking for a break of 75 the next weekly target is 73.50.
Long (2%) EG 0.8610, SL 20
Short U/CHF 1.1490, SL 90 (1%)
Long E/CAD 1.2980 SL 125 (2%)...@ minor resistance soon looking for it to get to the next PPZ highligheted below...will lock in some profit soon.
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May 20, 2010 8:10am
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Moved SL on ECAD to 1.2995
About to move SL on EG to BE+1.
Hard to see where to take some profit on this...got a load of choppiness to the left in the rectangle...I've marked some potential minro problem areas...ideally we'd shoot up quickly to the round nubmer...but thats unlikely so will be watching carefully...will take half of the table at some point and then let the other half run I think.
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May 20, 2010 8:35am
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Wish I caught the Uc or CJ breakout!
Added another short position on AJ and taken a GJ short too.
Took 50% profit on EG and 25% profit on EC.
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May 20, 2010 9:14am
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May 20, 2010 9:16am
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Took full proift on UCHF trade @ 1HR PPZ.
GJ and additional AJ shorts not looking good...in pariculat GJ...quickly rebounded having broekn PPZ.
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May 20, 2010 9:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Maybe you're using too many indicators or one indicator that's messing with your whole platform.
Try pressing Ctrl+Alt+Del and going into task manager - processes tab. See what the terminal.exe is using out of your CPU. If it's more than, say, 5% constantly something's wrong.
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I have two MT4s running and they both have a reading of 10! My computer is a piece of cr*p though and we fall out daily! Teh graphics card fan makes a noise like its going to take of constantly...looking into getting a new one...just want one that has a good processor, lots of ram and a graphics card that supports multiple monitors via DVI or VGA...hard work trying to get one that just has that and not all the bells and whistles that I dont need and dont want to pay for though. |
May 20, 2010 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well, you can have readings of 20-30, when switching between profiles, but when doing nothing in it you should have 0-1-2, something like that. When I say constant, I mean never going lower than 5 (well, that may be off, let's say 10) more than a couple of second.
I bought my computer last year in June. I paid for it a bit above 1.000 Euros with 2 22" monitors. I think I won't be needing anything else for years to come (I don't play video games). And I have the option of adding another video card to hook up another 2 monitors.
Tell me if you...
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yeah some advice as to what to look for would be good and any online shops to look at would be good too.
I was working on the asumption that I should be looking for something with 4gb ddr2 or ddr3 ram with potential upgrade to 8gb, something with spare PCI express slots for addtional graphics card and well just a latest process as any news one swill be better than my old pentium 4 with 1gb ram.
I have a ps3 for games so just want something that is cost affective but powerful enough to cope with 2MT4s running, 2spreadbetting online platforms and can hook up two monitors at least one having DVI input to fit my current monitor...dont want top of the range but something I can upgrade if needed in the future. At the moment my curent computer being a pentium 4 is not upgradeable as would need a new motherboard to fit the new processors that came out after this range etc. |
May 20, 2010 9:59am
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Cut gold ddidnt like how hard it was moving up...still in some ECAd long , EG long, 2x AJ shorts and 1x GJ short....hopefully these can run to the moon to make up for this weeks losses...I've got 3% committed to short xxx/jpy so maybe up to 2% more available for this if a really good setup comes along on short xxx/usd or xxx/jpy otherwise not really looking to ad more positions.
Gold is too volatile for me with this retracement happening, oil is interesting but want a retracement first and PPZ is @ 69.50 on the downside.
Dax and Dow futures sitting on support but obviously looking heavy and ftse is heading toward the psychological 5000 round number with support around 4970 if it break this then lots of clear space.
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May 20, 2010 10:05am
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1HR DBHLC on GJ |
May 20, 2010 10:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
BTW Closed Silver from yesterday at +90 pips.
E/G moved SL to BE+ but thinking of closing it at 0.865
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nice , but why close silver now? Agree on EG...though I'm looking for more, will likely hoild it until1HR Tl breaks.
My AJ short from yesterday is 167 pips in profit...a wacking 0.5% up lol...if only my aggresive entry with SL of 70 pips didnt get stopped out or my EJ short from 113.35 with 37 pip SL ...e/cad is 200pips up though and 2% which isnt too shabby. The big moves are with the trend...just finding the low risk entries which are difficult. |
May 20, 2010 10:17am
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Here we go again...100 pips on Gj in a blnk of an eye!
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May 20, 2010 10:24am
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I'm loving my Oanda picture right now...AJ + 272 pips and + 160 pis , E/C + 199 pips and GJ + 170 pips...just they had a lot more risk attached to them lol. Still gonna wipe out some of the weeks losses with them...when to exit id the blo*dy hard part!
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May 20, 2010 10:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I'm loving my Oanda picture right now...AJ + 272 pips and + 160 pips , E/C + 199 pips and GJ + 170 pips...just wish they had a lot more risk attached to them lol. Still gonna wipe out some of the weeks losses with them...when to exit is the blo*dy hard part!
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If we could get to 71 on AJ in a straight line I'd be very very happy! |
May 20, 2010 10:33am
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Ok exited both AJ short and GJ shorts just now leaving E/CAD and EG in play. I dont want any quick retracements taking my profits.
This afternoons trades so far:
Short Gold 1185.45, SL 80, Exit @ 1190.75 -0.66%
Short AJ @ 74.78 SL 130, Exit @ 72.96 +1.4%
Short GJ @ 129.09, SL 127 Exit @ 127.31 +1.4%
Closed my AJ from this morning @ 73.21, +1.03%
Exited 36% of E/CAD @ 1.3106, +0.66%
Exited U/CHF from this morning @ 1.1460, + 0.37%
Exited 50% of EG @ 0.8610 + 0.89%
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 20, 2010 10:45am
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May 20, 2010 10:56am
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Just as a fun experiment I opened up a ?5k demo acocunt with alpari this morning and went long EUR against NZD, AUD, GBP, CAD and USD against DKK and NOK at 0.05 lots each...account is now up 11%! Shows the power of a trend and of course this is without adding some xxx/jpy and xxx/usd short into play. Of course we have over exposure on correlated risk but shows that if you find a strong trend then just having some exposure to that trend is not a bad thing! lol.
If only I'd done that at the beginning of the myfxbook competition lol.
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May 20, 2010 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
OIL at a major Daily support
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With divergence on the 4HR (RSi set to 6).
If i had the balls I'd go long now based on 15min chart Sl below the low, TP @ 70.70 but would cut if couldnt get beyond 70 |
May 20, 2010 11:08am
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Some thoughts on PPZ levels if the trend continue as longer term targets...
AU just bounced off a PPZ
EJ @ monthly PPZ (110)
GJ - if it holds below 130 then next stop 120 based on monthly chart?!
UJ - on the way to test 88?
GU - on the way to test 1.4000?
EU - heading to 1.2000 if it can hold below 1.2400
I'm liking this range at the moment...play the range with a buy order above the high for a trend continuation...target 1.174 on the upside (TL and PPZ)
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May 20, 2010 11:12am
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This was what I was talking abou on oil...major daily PPZ...scroll down thetimeframes...divergence = retracement...how far ...who knows...but a bounce at a minimum. Nasir did same thing but based on the 1HR oil chart yesterday when @ daily PPZ.
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 20, 2010 11:14am
Reason: http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/editor/attach_long.gif
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May 20, 2010 11:27am
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Just closed EG...dont like the way it retraced hard off .8650...maybe should have taken profit at that level.
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May 20, 2010 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
This was what I was talking abou on oil...major daily PPZ...scroll down thetimeframes...divergence = retracement...how far ...who knows...but a bounce at a minimum. Nasir did same thing but based on the 1HR oil chart yesterday when @ daily PPZ.
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It's always the way...the trades you dont take workout lol...70.70 just hit. Its' something to bear in mind when approaching a daily / weekly PPZ to look for divergence on the lower timeframes as it is highly likely you'll get a bounce and that boucen can turn into trend reversal with a very low risk entry. |
May 20, 2010 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
nice PBs forming on Aud pairs. If they turn into green PBs they become interesting. Very steep fall BTW so I need to be careful
P.S. on all JPY pairs
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Yeah after quick big moves down you're going to get some profit taking...I wouldnt be surprised if we get a retracement tomorrow as people take profits before the weekend...dependant on news etc. Price action like pin bars havent been that reliable lately so I'd be careful as it could just be profit taking rather than indication of a retracement / reversal.
The GU 1HR Pb was a nice bar having gone through the round number below and firmly rejected. |
May 20, 2010 1:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
EU hello !!
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Hmmmm I hope thats not the ECB intervention that was on the wires....that would be very bad indeed for us traders....but on the plus side the remainder of my ECAD long is now 315 pips in profit and testing TL.
Wish Id kept EG long now...Iwas keen to have a EUr long position just in case we did get a spike,
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May 20, 2010 2:00pm
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probably regret closing out this trade and to extent I'm trading my P&L but I dont like trading in eratic markets...that looked like bltant ECB intervention...you cant make the EUr like that relative to other currencies without some really big orders...hmmm.
Anyway colsed remaining portion @ 1.3314 for +3.21%.
Today was certainly a day of two halves...managed to turn it around from a loss to a profit for the day...2 days of profit after the big loss on Tuesday and i've managed to make up all of those losses now over the last 2 days...could I actually end the week in the positive....maybe just maybe |
May 20, 2010 3:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Anyway a good day for you LJ. Keep it going.
Enjoy your evening
Thanks x your help
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No worries. Yes I'm plesed with how it ended considering where I was earlier...though breaking my rules and not keeping EG open is costing me a good chunk of profit...oh well.
Back tomorrow. |
May 21, 2010 1:48am
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Just looking at my charts...dont see anything I want to trade at the moment...gonna be very careful today...are we going to get a retracement, short covering, ECB intervention on the Euro...will Germany vote through the Greece bailout? Equity futures down overnight but USD and JPY down too...
Is that why the Euro is rising on anticipation it will get voted through so people are short covering - who knows...if it doesnt get through the markets will plummet again. These are very volatile choppy markets so I'm going to be ultra careful.
I'm thinking of having some small exposure to EUR long so am looking for some good pairs. I'm also liking the U/CHF range and will be looking to play the range and the eventual breakout.
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May 21, 2010 3:14am
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Went long on U/CHF 5 mins ago...got in a bit late, but hust playing the 1HR range...with a buy order above the highs to catch a breakout with the trend.
Thought about shorting gold as we are at a daily TL...but looking at the 1HR we've approached the TL 3 times now and not had a decent bounce down from it...thus looking like we'll break up through it...watching how price reacts is important...if price is hovering around a resistance level then it is more likely to break through it than bounce away from it.
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May 21, 2010 3:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
With a lot of imagination !!
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Thats a daily PPZ price is istting on with a risding daily TL just below.
Could it be building up for a break of both... |
May 21, 2010 3:46am
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area to watch for a long opportunity...
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May 21, 2010 8:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Another ECB intervention today ?
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We'll...They did it at close of euopean session yesterday about 6pm Lodnon time so lets watch again...also bank holiday in europe on Monay o tha could also be another optimum time.
I closed my CHf trade for small profit earlier andhvent really ben looking at charts since. I've got pending orders on UC on break of the current range high but thats about it. I see futures are down again...we will get some aggresive chort covering later in US session...will germany approve greek aid...they are the things I'll be watching for later...but not eager to jump in to trades.
Silver jst ada breakdown through its 1HR triangle and EU is holding 1.2500 as temporary support. |
May 21, 2010 9:21am
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Looking at correlations etc can see something is not right with the EUR...as I have it that the EUR and JPY are the best performing currencies at the moment with the CAD and AUD unsurprisingly the worse (comparison of EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, AUD and CAD)...USD and JPy should be the best and EUR amongst one of the worse...I'm considering opening some EUR long exposure probably against AUD, CAD and USD.
UC andUCHF breakout long order still in place.
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May 21, 2010 9:27am
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This range also looks good to play a breakout.
Maybe also UJ below 89.
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May 21, 2010 10:10am
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Here comes the retracement bus!?!
Pending long above GU range...4HR pin bar on UC ...if playing the retracement then CAD and AUD should be the strongest pairs against USD.
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May 21, 2010 10:13am
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long at break of this channel...
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May 21, 2010 11:33am
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UC 4HR pin short trade triggered (placed order below the cluster of previous lows)...1.0545 is FTA...probably move to BE and see if it will go further.
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May 24, 2010 2:50am
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Not around much this morning, so wont be entering lots of trades.
At the moment it looks like the retracements will contibue, plenty of 'triangle' patterns in progress on the 1HR charts across the majors with breakouts close to occuring.
U/CHF and GU still within their ranges though GU is close to a breakout (GCHF has broken out of its range)
Gold and silver are also on the move.
My plan is to play any retracements on the 1HR chart as their are some decent patterns IMO but the trend is still clearly down so I'll be looking for heavily confluenced areas where I can reverse for shorts...I'll be only taking small risks on the counter trend reversals trades as we saw last week how quick price can move to the downside. Last Tuesday I play counter trend reversals in a slow moving market on 1HR charts and got badly burned when I didnt notice the areas where price would continue in the downtrend...keen not to make the same mistake again!
Some analysts are saying this down move is merely a market correction and the up move is set to continue now. I'm not convinced by this...the fear and panic that drove the market down so quickly over the last few weeks does not just disappear over the weekend.
Monday's can be notoriously quiet and with hardly any economic data out today, today could be one of those slow moving choppy days.
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May 24, 2010 11:21am
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Had a few trades today...tried to catch breakouts on 1HR on UJ, U/CHF and GU...all have been false breakouts which is pretty annoying. Shorted EA and EC earlier...should have just left them open as they contiued to decline throughout the day...no real technical setup EUr just continuing in its weakess across the board and resuming its down trends against AUD and CAD.
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May 24, 2010 2:37pm
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Some areas I like in order to take some trend trades i.e. pullbacks to confluenced areas on the H4 or daily timeframe in order to get into the current trend @ a discount. I like to use confluence of a H4 od daily PPZ together with 50 or 61 fibs rounded to the nearest round nubmer i.e. 50 or 00.
Have to be careful with correlation on these as they are mostly against the USD or JPY so should move in the same direction depending on the movement of the dow etc. These trades are on the assumption that the dow will reach new lows after a pullback i.e. that we are still in a downtrend and that this move down in the equity markets is not just a 'correction' , thus I'd prefer to just trade what my charts tell me and not try and second guess something that I have no way of forseeing.
AU - 0.8500
UC - 1.0450
CJ - 86.00
EU - 1.2500
GU - 1.4850
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May 25, 2010 1:59am
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daily IB staddling 70 BRN....entry just below the previous bar low.
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May 25, 2010 2:15am
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Dax gapped open over 100pips! Dow sitting at a double bottom.
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May 25, 2010 2:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Pending since yesterday. 69.5 would have been a better entry, but would have been exposed to a sharp bounce at this level.
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Indeed it would or even 70.80 based on falling TL and resistance on 4HR chart. Not being too aggresive at the moment with my price actoin setups as they have not been overly reliable lately. |
May 25, 2010 2:28am
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Also sold gold on spreadbetting account...4H TL and small pin bar...looking for a hard break below MA and PPZ below.
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May 25, 2010 2:31am
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pending order below this support on Oanda with SL above the three bar highs.
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May 25, 2010 2:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Question is what's the target? I see only space...
67?
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1st real target would be 67.50 for me (look @ aug / sep 09) but there a few bar wick lows around 68-68.30 but if they act as support then I'll be peeved lol! |
May 25, 2010 2:54am
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Went long UC on a break above the recent highs...hoping this isnt going to be a false breakout like GU, UCHF and UJ were yesterday!
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May 25, 2010 3:24am
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Closed Gold for + 0.66% as it didnt break down hard like I wanted. Will take profit and put a pending order @ 1184 (SL @ 1192 - 2%) i.e. below the PPZ and catch the break.
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May 25, 2010 3:33am
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Tried a more aggresive entry on UC breakout...1% on the position with tight SL 2% on the wider SL position.
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May 25, 2010 4:04am
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EG trade in play now SL @ 0.8592 - 2% at risk
Loooking for a hard break through 0.8545 area and then TP would be .8500
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May 25, 2010 4:52am
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Took full profit on Oil short @ 67.50 area PPZ...cant take partial profit otherwise would have done to let some run, but I've closed the conservative UC long too as this has also hit a PPZ @ 1.0777 but have left the more aggresive entry open with SL moved to BE+1...this way I still have exposure if Oil does break lower as UC and oil are closely correlated.
Made +2.47% on oil trade and +0.31% on UC
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May 25, 2010 6:04am
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Made a mistake and instead of moving SL on UC I accidentally closed it...grrrr closing price was 1.0786...very annoying as played the oil / UC combination quite well I thought.
Still in EG short, Sl moved to BE and looking to taek some profit @ 0.8515
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May 25, 2010 6:07am
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Gold looks like it will break down...pending order still in place from earlier.
Will take another oil trade short if we can break down through the PPZ.
Also watchng the GU and GJ ranges for a break south.
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May 25, 2010 6:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What panic... This is how the Romanian stock exchange looks like: http://bvb.ro/
I managed to catch the NU triangle break. Wanted to add as price moved down but got cold feet and instead of opening a new position at around 0.661 I closed a short...
Also closed half of Oil at 67.5, other half has TP at 67.05. |
Bl*ody hell!
That was a nice triangle break...dont have NU on my watch list, maybe I should NU and NJ hmmm. |
May 25, 2010 6:39am
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Have just taken 50% profit on EG short at minor PPZ and moved SL on remainder to jsut above the TL...TP is just above the round number which is also a daily PPZ...I'll take 50% of the remaining profit of at this level and move SL down on the remainder.
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May 25, 2010 8:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Wanted to share this with you LJ, seeing that you went long UJ. I wasn't around to show you this chart yesterday.
I think it doesn't need any comments... Pring says in his book that line charts are better than OHLC or candle charts. I'm not really giving weigh on that, but I thought of switching to line from time to time, just to see how stuff's working. And on UJ I had that line drawn 2 days ago, waiting for that level, but not having enough experience with simple touch trade and on line charts too, I didn't pull the trigger.
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I do look at line charts now and again and mainly use them in trend trades where adding positions.
I've attached the reason I went long yesterday and also my line chart...dont think my line chart would have stopped me taking that trade as its not as clear a PPZ areas as yours.
A line chart defintely has its uses...but the drawback is that you need to know the highs and lows when knowing where to put you stop loss on a trade. personally I prefer looking at price extremes when plotting a PPZ area and taking a trade etc...but its defintely usefiul when trading P/V style to more easily identify price conslidation areas etc. |
May 25, 2010 9:05am
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I would prefer a short with SL above 1200
Been busy getting used to my spreadbetting platforms and comparing spreads, min stop losses, min bet size, expiry etc so missed it.
Got impatient with EG earlier and closed second half @ 0.8522 for a combined +1.68% on whole trade.
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May 25, 2010 9:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
As LJ said, I am also looking forward for this one to break.
It will be a cool move !!
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Indeed. U/CHf erventually broke its range with the trend, but it gave a flase breakout first which caught me then I missed the true breakout. lol |
May 25, 2010 9:21am
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Took this on demo as not added this to my rules yet...approaching a strong daily PPZ and RN with divergence...pull the trigger with small SL.
I got in @ 72.05 with SL @ 71.90
I'm getting into the habit of looking on 4H and 1H for divergence @ big daily PPZ areas.
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May 25, 2010 9:48am
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Decided to pull the trigger on gold - 1% (well 1.12% to be precise!) @ 1195.70 SL@ 1200.75
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May 25, 2010 9:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am upset I did not catch the nth train on EU. It is almost 3 weeks I try to get on board !! |
Yeah I know what you mean... a bit frustrating in a way. |
May 25, 2010 10:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Decided to pull the trigger on gold - 1% (well 1.12% to be precise!) @ 1195.70 SL@ 1200.75
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Closed when it went above the 1HR resistance and MA's -0.64% |
May 25, 2010 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I was thinking long, but may be it is only the reaction to news
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yep breakout on 1HR...resistance is @ 1207.
I was looking for a continuation of the downtrend with the 50fib, MA's and PPZ lines up. |
May 25, 2010 10:12am
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Dont see anything else that I like at the moment...break of AJ lows @ 72 on the downside otherwise waiting for retracements.
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May 25, 2010 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I promised to myself that if it goes anywhere close to that TL, I will short it |
I'd love it to retrace to where my TL. PPZ and 50 fib all meet |
May 25, 2010 3:06pm
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Went short E/CAD...was watching this all afternoon (well not constantly lol)
PPZ, round number and 50% fib from recent move...overall daily and weekly trend is down so this is a trend trade. Also havea small BEOB on30min chart with divergence (thats not the reason for the trade though).
Short @ 1.3230 SL @ 1.3280 - 1%
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May 25, 2010 3:09pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
anyone would like to comment on YM ?
I believe the current level is critical, if it breaks than it will be the first LL in 1 yr time.
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It bounced of PPZ thats for sure...if it can form a pin closing above 10910 then that would be a very good sign of further dow strength to come. Personally I was waiting for 10600 for a touch trade long (PPZ, RN and 50% retracement of July 09 - April 10 move). |
May 25, 2010 3:40pm
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Went long EU @ 1.2332 with SL @ 1.2288 - EU has broken through a couple of PPZ areas on 1HR so lets see if retracement can continue all the way up to my sell area.
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May 25, 2010 4:03pm
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Got in a bit late as wanted to get in on the retrace to the round number...but a break above PPZ retrace and now take off lol. Now just need YM to break and hold above 10070.
Oil is also @ a 1HR PPZ and TL...normally I could short it but with aEUR/CAD short in play I want it to break above...I wouldnt like a short with equities moving up so fast anyway.
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May 25, 2010 4:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Took this on demo as not added this to my rules yet...approaching a strong daily PPZ and RN with divergence...pull the trigger with small SL.
I got in @ 72.05 with SL @ 71.90
I'm getting into the habit of looking on 4H and 1H for divergence @ big daily PPZ areas.
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Still have this open on demo...above 15%R now!! the power of divergence on major PPZ areas with round numbers. doesnt always lead to big moves but a high probability you will get some sort of reaction. Something I will start trading with 0.5% risk from now on. |
May 25, 2010 4:07pm
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This is what I meant on oil and YM in previous post...
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May 25, 2010 4:30pm
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One more trade playing on equity strength and USD weakness - 1% again.
Being quite cautious taking these trades with 1% only as conscious that these are all against the recent strong down trend and dow, oil etc can easily reverse that the PPZ they are currently at.
There has been no more major 'shocks' or bad news out this week and thus risk appetite is increasing...whether it is temporary and if we have any more follow through is a different question. Hopefully we can get more follow through and then I have some initial positions in order to add further 'trend' positions as and when price breaks above previous resistance areas etc.
So far I have 3% commited against USD and essentially continued Dow strength...that will do for now, will set some TP for overnights. ECAD has soared down and approaching 1.3140, will move SL to BE+1 now and see if it can break down.
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May 26, 2010 1:06am
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Didnt get the momentum in Asia I was looking for.
EU hit stop loss as 1HR PPZ didnt hold -0.96%
UJ hit conservatie TP @ 90.28 +0.40%
ECAD - stil inplay hasnt moved much..oil has broken above it's TL so hoping this will hold and ECAD will continue down.
UCHF - cut just now -0.98%
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May 26, 2010 1:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I was thinking long, but may be it is only the reaction to news
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Did you go long? It's just hit daily PPZ and 50% confluence @ 1207. |
May 26, 2010 1:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Meant to ask you LJ, you mentioned a couple of weeks back that you were increasing your account size quite a bit...this doesn't seem to have impacted your mental? Agree, disagree, thoughts, etc?
I'm about to make that next jump up in account size myself, the last jump didn't go as well and took me some time to get sorted. Curious.
Cheers, great journal, a daily...well, several times a day read for me |
Yeah I did. It's not at a level where a single trade is life changing or worth an amount that means a lot financially to me at the moment though. I have been risking less per trade and am being more cautious but I feel that is due to a couple of moderate weeks and the current volatility more than the account size. If all goes to plan then in 3-4 months time my account will be worth at a size where it will matter and that will be the psychological test, can I trade the account like I do at the moment just pulling the trigger on setups without letting the ?''s at stake affect me. Doing as much as possible to disassociate yourself from the fact its money at stake is key. I dont have any ? profit showing on my live trades just pips and always ask myself the question when exiting the trade am I exiting it because my charts are telling me to exit. |
May 26, 2010 2:27am
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Lots of pin bars on the daily time frame around but Oil is the only one I'd consider. Waiting until London open to see how the equity futures are looking before starting to think about any trading setups.
With the gradual move to spreadbetting I've got a ?100 risk free bet from one of my new accounts so looking for a speculative trade which might have a high %R. Unfortunately with this firm you have minimumsto levels which are relatively high so having a flcik through it seesmthe FTSE daily is the best thing to havea bet on ...minimum stop loss is 20 so I can have a ?5 per point bet...when it opens I reckon I'm gonna go long hopinh it can hold 5000 (futures). alternatively going long the dax future above 5750 could be an option as this has the same stop size hmmmmm...any one got any thoughts on this?
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May 26, 2010 2:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Even though it's 'free' money that doesn't mean it's money to be lost. I think you'd better wait for an A+ setup to go with if you want to risk all your money on it.
Going long against the trend, sitting on top of BRN and TL, RSI overbought (I know we don't look at this, but look where it's standing) while EU, GU, oil and everything else fail to rise isn't exactly a good trade imo... But it's your analysis, your trade, you shouldn't listen to anyone but yourself
If you get a chance, read "Lessons from the greatest stock trades of all time"... |
Good valid points there. I only had that TL showing on 1HR and was looking at 4HR chart at the time. I need to take 2 trades by close of play tomorrow in order to qualify for the refund if they lose and currencies have relatively high minimum stop losses so thought it worth taking a risk I wouldnt normally take i.e. more speculative...perhaps thats the wrong way of looking at it.
I still think Dax is a good trade...the overall trend is down but we've had a strong bounce yesterday and overnight in Asia so looking for the short term momentum and thats up.
I'm off on holiday / vacation from next wednesday for a week so will add that to my list of potential reading material. |
May 26, 2010 2:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
It's an easy read with a few valid points (which I guess you know by now) but it tells the story of five great stock traders with all their ups and downs. A good vacation read.
Next up: Trading in the zone.  |
Cool, thanks I'll look into gettting a copy.
I didnt like trading in the zone...found it incredibly hard to read and just thought it went into far too much depth and over complicated simple things. But thats just me. |
May 26, 2010 3:07am
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Sold Gold @ 1204.50 (SL@1208.0) via spreadbetting - 1%ish at risk.
Based on confluence of daily PPZ and 50% fib...should have pulled the trigger earlier.
FTA is 1200 then 1196.50
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May 26, 2010 3:10am
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Exited E/CAD earlier is I wanted it to push through the 4HR PPZ below and break the BEOB but it hasnt and has started to retrace...end result +0.84%
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May 26, 2010 3:19am
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Shorted UC...A daily pin formed with divergence and price is testing the first eye whicih also has MA as resistance. Shorted here with stop loss above the next PPZ above. Also Oil has broken above its 4HR falling TL.
2% at risk
If it breaks the dialy pin I'll likely add another position....main target has to be a retest of 1.0540 area.
Short @ 1.0726 SL@ 1.0785
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May 26, 2010 3:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning
I d like to underline the situation on DJ. 5 daily bars at around 10.000, meaning a lot of pressure at this level. Also the 2 attempts to break up (PBs) failed, price never broke the high of the PB.
All of this to say that if it breaks to the downside than it is going to break fast. IMO
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There has not been enough buying power to take it back up as sellers keep coming in to force it back down...but also look at how fast and quick any move below 10000 has been rejected...3 times it has broken below and yesterday it hit PPZ @ 9788 and look how much buying strength has come in to force it back above 10000. Thus sellers are stronger than buyers above 10000 but buyers are stronger than sellers below 10000.
We also have divergence on the daily.
I also see that the last two dips below 10000 have occurred during European morning session and the move back up has been after US open.
Overall it is winding up for a decent move in either direction once buyers or sellers overcome each other above or below 10000. |
May 26, 2010 3:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Good valid points there. I only had that TL showing on 1HR and was looking at 4HR chart at the time. I need to take 2 trades by close of play tomorrow in order to qualify for the refund if they lose and currencies have relatively high minimum stop losses so thought it worth taking a risk I wouldnt normally take i.e. more speculative...perhaps thats the wrong way of looking at it.
I still think Dax is a good trade...the overall trend is down but we've had a strong bounce yesterday and overnight in Asia so looking for the short term momentum and...
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Got in @ 5735 @ ?3 per point with SL (minimum SL level) @ 5714.
A hard break above 5750 all the way to 5865 PPZ would be nice.
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May 26, 2010 3:55am
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Short Gold, short UC (essentially long oil) and long Dax....hmmmm gold short is a contradiction to the other 2 and is close to SL.
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May 26, 2010 4:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What are the rules to get your money?
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I've opened 2 spreadbetting accounts.
Account 1 - credit account with ?100 and place 2 trades before 30th May and get refunded any net losses on the two trades up to ?100.
Account 2 - place 5 trades (non shares) before 30th May (having funded account with at least ?100) and you will get ?100 credited into your account to trade ...cannot withdraw ?100 for 3 months etc etc.
Dax trade is on account 1 and is first trade
Gold trade is on account 2 and is 3rd trade (Took a winning silver and gold trade so far on this and trading as I would normally).
Hence my thinking why not use account 1 to take 2 trades that have potential for high %R but are too risky that I wouldnt take normally...not shotgun trades but just slightly too risky for me...hence the dax trade @ ?3 per point...wouldnt have taken that trade and wouldnt have risked that much normally...and if it can hold above TL and 5750 and we get some more buillish momentum, like we got yesterday afternoon we could quite realistically go up a 100pips or so and that would be worth a very decent % to my account (its worth around 2% of my account as it currently stands). |
May 26, 2010 4:05am
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Gold SL hit -1.09%
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May 26, 2010 4:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Nice continuation BUOB engulfing 6 prior bars on oil.
Look at the spread I got on FxPro, 20p... The bastards. (Just kidding, got in last night) I think I'll add a little bit and move stop below the bar.
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Yeah that looks good to me...Ive' got 2% on UC short so wont take it..but be willing oil to rise! Could have also got in on pullback to TL if that fits with setup criteria etc. |
May 26, 2010 4:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
If you can get a runner with 0 loss and high GBP/pip why not go for it, I got your point form your first post. I was just saying that there are trades with good odds and trades with not so good odds.
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Yeah exactly...its starting to retrace I'll probably get out @ BE ish so still got the bulk of the ?100 to risk on another trade to try and and get a runner. This SB firm has minimum stop sizes and equity markets have the smallest stop size in pips thus allowing to risk more per point etc. |
May 26, 2010 4:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
One position last night, 2% risk at first but moved stop now to 1% risk (set order before going to bed, got hit in Tokyo session) and one a few minutes ago with 1% risk, so it's 2% total now.
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I would have thought it should hopefully get to 71 area looking at the 4HR and daily TF. |
May 26, 2010 5:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
7 mins to close
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I'll be in this too...seems I was just bit too ealry with my UCHF short and EU long yesterday...or should have had wider stops.
UC is nearly 50 pips in profit time to move to BE+1...will be watching then area marked which is daily pin bar low...I'll add another 2% on a break.
Moved stop to BE+1 on dax trade...its hovering around 2.5% of my account in the positive...hard to know whether the bank it as its a free trade or to just leave it...my first main target would be 5800 so reckon i'll just leave it and take some profit at that leve if we get there. |
May 26, 2010 5:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
That and every other pair.
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May 26, 2010 5:12am
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My order from yesterday on break of E/CAD BEOB has just broken (forgot to cancel it)...will leave it open and see iof we can get below that PPZ just below...if not will be quick to cut it.
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May 26, 2010 6:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
seems gold has clearly broken the anticipated resistance, sure some might be bullish now on gold, this is the new level im watching off 1hr for a pullback to go long too, if it plays out accordingly
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yeah I have this too...wish I'd gone long on the breakout yesterday now. |
May 26, 2010 6:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Lovejoy,
Nice to see that you grow your account steady i will start at the 15th of june kind a bussy with private things at the moment still demo.
I saw you took the pinbar of oil i am also in that.
I just took this trade of gbp/usd
confluence 50% fib expansion
61.8 fib retracement and trendline + r1 pivot.
i will see how it goes.
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Thanks...things have been quite slow the last couple weeks...will be looking to increase risk and to start getting some bigger growth back in again once I come back from vacation.
I'm only interested in playing the 4HR ranges or a breakout on GU at the moment...but I see why you've gone short. |
May 26, 2010 6:13am
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Closed my Dax long for +2.85% not bad for a free trade.
No point taking any more speculative trades as you only get reimbursed if net losses on two trades up to ?100 so i'd have to lose ?190 on the next trade to get ?100 back and thus my overal position would be net zero compated to net +2.85% I am at the moment.
If I were to trade Dax again i'd take a long @ 5740 areas based on rising TL and PPZ area.
Still holding UC short though it has retraced a bit, E/CAD short looks to be gaining some momentum to break down through the PPZ and U/CHF short is showing slight loss.
Off to the gym, back later.
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May 26, 2010 7:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
lol, you're saying 'off to the gym' like you have to drive to get there it's not like you don't have your netbook with you |
Haha...dont take my notebook with me anymore...but the 15 seconds walk to my garage is quite handy |
May 26, 2010 8:05am
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Decided to take profit on my UC short...it hit 4HR PPZ and started to reverse and oil is struggling too...have a pending short if we get below the daily pin, but happy to abk some profit in the meantime...result +2.45%.
Really annoyed I took profit on Dax trade...should have just left it with a TP at 5795...thrown away 2.8 % potential more profit if it gets there.
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May 26, 2010 8:11am
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Decided to add a further E/CAD short (with SL@ 1.3195) on breaking 4HR PPZ (gave it some room to ensure not a false breakout) as only had 1% on original BEOB entry...so now have 2% @ risk.
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May 26, 2010 8:15am
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If equity markets continue to drift north then I'm also looking at breakouts on GU, AU, AJ and UJ
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May 26, 2010 8:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
Oil has 71.18 to deal with before moving higher IMO
uchf struggling with 11518, if it breaks want to see a convincing break of that area to consider shorts
ecad moving well, fta at 13062, havnt decided yet but I might be looking for 12650 as final tp but only time will tell, might close earlier though
cheers guys
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I'm not liking U/CHf...all that choppyness to the lft is holding it up will cut soon.
Agree on Oil.
I would have my second target as 1.2890 on ECAD based on 4HR chart before 12650
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May 26, 2010 8:29am
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This was my Dax chart I was working off...entry @ 5735 i.e. break and pullback to TL it broke and then TP 5 pps below the 5800 S/R area... I closed on signs of a retracement @ 5965.
If US session continues in the same vain as European then we could get a lot mre mometum to the upside and my second TP of 5865 could have been hit.
I'm so unimpressed with how I couldnt manage to let a free trade run...not good at all.
Anyway rant at myself over with, Dax chart deleted of my charts for the day, emotions reset to neutral and now waiting for US open.
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May 26, 2010 8:38am
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Closed UCHF for result of -0.27%
EUR is very weak across the board, equity futres continuing up but EUr is pointing down. gone short EUR/AUD...got in a bit late on break fo TL @ 1.4768 SL 1.4987 - 2% at risk
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May 26, 2010 8:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I know it is 30 mins, but what do you guys think ?
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Dont often go below the 1HR and dont like trading just off a TL especially on lower timeframes...but here would be my chart... |
May 26, 2010 8:45am
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Poor US data has made equities turn and takingxxx/usd and xxx/jpy with it...more data out in75mins and US open in 45 mins...be interesting to see if the daily pin bars actually break and play out today or if US market takes us back down.
E/CAD just hit FTA and I've taken some profit leaving 1% at risk
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May 26, 2010 9:42am
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Looks like poor Us data has been absorbed and now we'll continue higher on equities...just waiting for those breakouts.
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May 26, 2010 10:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
And if there is no BOut? Same with AUD
Edit and CAD
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Then I'll just continue to play the EUR weakness
Wish I had smalller stops on E/A and E/C now and been a bit more aggresive up 60 ips on EC and 55 pips on EA already...but stops were 95 and 114. Maybe should have done two entries an aggresive one and a lower risk trend trade.
Been very cautious in my trading this week and amount of risk per trade has been low too...but from next week will be getting more aggresive again as things seems to have settled down again to pre-dow falsh move levels. |
May 26, 2010 10:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
By the way I did not say to you guys that a couple of weeks ago I subscribed to J16 PG.
I have been unbelievably pleased with the choice. The material they have in there and the support you get is worth much more than the fee you pay.
I know LJ, you have been a member. What happen then ? Just a touch trade ?
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I was a member for 2-3 months I think...last year at some point I think it was. Was really good and thats where I first saw Racs trading style. I learned a fair bit but actually felt that most of it I already knew and the thing I really needed was to go away and practice and develop my own style.
Eveyone trades and interprets setups differently and I kept following other people instead of my own beliefs plus what with all the other methods there were on there like FXv 1HR method, Knife, RTL etc I just felt there was to much information and I was jumping from one method to the next. It is certainly a good community though and lots of people there to help beginners etc with the weekly webinars etc. |
May 26, 2010 10:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Got out of oil, that's a strong wall up there. I'll get in again at 71.25, above all resistance.
I hate the Euro... I'm waiting for some kind of comeback to put my savings in USD, but no chance I see...
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Thats my plan on oil too.
EU is very choppy right now and just doesnt want to rally a decent amount of pips by the looks of it. |
May 26, 2010 10:29am
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Chart so EC and EA to see where trouble areas are...On EC I'm gonna add positions in if we break below those two marked areas...if we can break through the first one today that would be good.
Lots of space on EUR/AUD...so hoping to hold this one for a bit ...hoping this momentum can continue for the rest of the day.
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May 26, 2010 10:40am
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Short UC and long AJ...price moving fast so didnt get best entries 1.0615 on UC and 75.85 on AJ 100 pip Sl on AJ 1% and 40pip SL on UC 1%
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May 26, 2010 10:47am
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Pending short on EC @ 1.2962 with 50pip SL.
As I'm short UC and EC I wont go long Oil.
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May 26, 2010 10:56am
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AJ not looking good...grrr volatility seems to lead to more false breakouts...might have to go back to taking the conservative breakout approach i.e. breakout and then enter on the pullabck to prove that it is a not a false breakout.
EU is being held up on 1HR support area stopping EA and EC moving down further. I've moved stops on both to lock in profits and if looking like a reversal will occur I'll take fuill profit and wait for a better entry again.
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May 26, 2010 11:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
AJ not looking good...grrr volatility seems to lead to more false breakouts...might have to go back to taking the conservative breakout approach i.e. breakout and then enter on the pullabck to prove that it is a not a false breakout.
EU is being held up on 1HR support area stopping EA and EC moving down further. I've moved stops on both to lock in profits and if looking like a reversal will occur I'll take fuill profit and wait for a better entry again.
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Cut UC and AJ trades for -0.23% and -0.45%
Exited EC and EA for +0.95% and +1.08%
Pending order on EC still in play at 2% risk but with the markets still choppy I'm still happy to take regular profits.
UC and AJ are examples of how choppy the markets still are...a month ago that wouldnt have happened...price would have sailed on up and I would be having my 30% days again instead of 5% days. |
May 26, 2010 11:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Thanks for sharing. Definitely a lot of info there. Rac's stuff has been "temporarily" removed. It is a pity for me that just joined.
Yes a lot of info there like at FF....
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Rac's stuff is not for beginners and takes a while to get used to anyway. Following Mike is definitely the way to go...he is a great teacher and trades the core J16 way. I would recommend joining the group to any trader looking to learn J16 and develop their skills. A lot of people are in the same boat in the forum so its a good place to help each other etc.
For me I realised it was myself that was stopping me progressing and I needed to shut myself away and gain confidence in my trading style and overcome the psychological aspects that were stopping me progressing. |
May 26, 2010 11:16am
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That was odd all of a sudden AUD went very weak against the other majors...bit odd behavior...it essentially tanked in strength from being the strongest to the weakest in minutes.
gone long Oil...lets see if the area marked can hold as support.
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May 26, 2010 11:23am
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I still favour an breakout on AJ looking at the 1HR bars. Didnt want to take those 1HR pin bars on AU and AJ as there is just too much trouble and choppyness below.
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May 26, 2010 11:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I still favour an breakout on AJ looking at the 1HR bars. Didnt want to take those 1HR pin bars on AU and AJ as there is just too much trouble and choppyness below.
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Ok, maybe not...lol. Still wouldnt trade those 1HR pins...multiple trouble areas to get through and YM at 1HR support. |
May 26, 2010 11:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
LJ,
did you take the earlier long on AJ on just a break of ppz on the 4hr or did you spot some PA there?
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Just the break...no PA. It's an aggresive way of playing breakouts, works best when trend trading rather than breakouts. Normally I'll risk 1% on a pure breakout and then add more if it continues at breaks of further resistance levels or add more if it comes back and tests former resistance as support.
If it proves to be a false breakout then I'll cut quickly i.e. will hardly ever suffer the 1% loss as on a breakout I am looking for a quick high momemtum initial move up. |
May 26, 2010 11:51am
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Notice how when equity markets are rising EUR is lagging behind but when they are falling EUR being nears its recent lows holds up as one of the strongest. 'People' dont want the EUR to fall any further lower do they...
Glad I took full profit on EC and EA now...EA in particular has retraced hard.
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May 26, 2010 1:07pm
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Closed my oil long from earlier (-1.21%)...a bit impatient but got in long again just now @ 71.31.
It's tough as the min lot size means I'm risking 2.5-3% per trade on average on oil so I become impatient and cut it quickly if goes against me...wont be long (hopefully) before this wont be a problem.
I've started to re-read my journal from the start to see how my trading has changed. I'm only on page 16 so far but can see that I was far more aggresive back then, but the market IMO was much easier to trade with lots of P&V style trading making up the majority of my gains. I seemed to pull the trigger much easier than I do now too...I suppose its working out when to be cautious and when to be more aggresive. I want to start being a bit more aggresive again and start making some big gains hence why re-reading my journal to see what i'm doing differently and to asses whether the market conditions are ripe for trading like I was doing at the start of this journal.
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May 26, 2010 1:11pm
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Why I favour upside breakouts...
(plus equity markets on the rise, gold and oil rising...all a sign that risk appetite is increasing)
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May 27, 2010 2:12am
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Markets still choppy. Equity markets up in EU session yesterday, down in Us session and up in Asia!
I'm in a UJ short but gonna cut it soon. Should have been far more patient with my Oil longs.
YM closed below 10000 for the first time in the current down move but was again quickly rejected in asia and is back above 10000 again. I wish it would stick to one direction lol!
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May 27, 2010 2:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
EU made a double bottom with divergence, I'm currently long.
EG broke the giant wedge and retested, so I'm short.
And I hate myself for the oil trade. That's all.
Are you still long? |
No i took a loss and a BE on oil last night...played it badly, no patience.
Went short E/AUD ...we've got LH and LL on 4HR and it's retraced near the TL again. With equities rising AUD and CAd are normally much stronger than EUR etc too
Trade 1: Short EUR/AUD @ 1.4737 SL @1.4835 - 1%
(gonna start detailing my trades like this counting the daily trade number...as found it really hard to follow my trades at times when reading back my journal...will also make sure I post pics all the time even if a while after the event).
Seems the best method at the moment is to buy dips below 10000 on YM and xxx/usd etc. |
May 27, 2010 2:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
EU made a double bottom with divergence, I'm currently long.
EG broke the giant wedge and retested, so I'm short.
And I hate myself for the oil trade. That's all.
Are you still long? |
Very well spotted on EU. Does your chart on EG look like mine? |
May 27, 2010 3:15am
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Normally I'd take this long..Oil at resistance too...but the strong move leading up to where we are on Uc, CJ and oil has put me off.
The old me would have taken this for 1% without thinking about it...lets see what happens!
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May 27, 2010 3:23am
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Trade 2: Long GU @ 1.4519, Sl @ 1.4465 -1%
Breakout...but wary of the TL. Equities are strongly up and FTSe has soared on opening...lets see if this will continue.
Trade 3: Short EG @ 0.8490, SL@ 0.8515 - 2%
Breakout of wedge and pullback with RN and PPZ as confluence...FTA is not that far below.
Need to watch these trades carefully so reluctant to enter any more at the moment.
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May 27, 2010 3:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I got stopped out to the pip and then price reversed. It was a bad stop placement, wanting to double my exposure by having a smaller stop...
Got stopped out of EG too (-0,7%) but GJ and EU going well for now.
EU is a longer term play, so I'll add on break of key levels. I'll watch for falling TLs and key resistence areas to see how price behaves, but it's a nice double bottom with divergence that EU has pulled. Next stop 1.3 |
Yes, a great entry on EU...I'd like it to continue up to 1.2440 over the next 6-7 hours then I'll take a decent size short |
May 27, 2010 3:45am
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Pending trades...
1. Short U/CHF...should be obvious where....thius will also be a LH and then it will hopefully go and make a LL.
2. E/CAD....1% on breaking the PPZ and bar low with SL above the recent cluster high and then 1% with same entry but much more aggresive SL @ 1.3010 i.e. banking on price not coming back.
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May 27, 2010 4:02am
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Closed Trade 2 (GU short) manually...as soon as I did it started to rise again! 1Hr pin bar formed...gonna take it but will cut if it doesnt move quickly down...a lot of chop below.
Trade 2 close manually @ 1.4476 - 0.75%
Last edited by lovejoy80, May 27, 2010 4:15am
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May 27, 2010 4:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
sup guys, you guys r having fun without me, totally not cool
anyways still holding my ecad, & acad was be (thnx to my breakevenexpert, slept well)
have to wait for something to pop up
nice entry on eu ,neutro .... |
2 losses this morning for me...so not so cool start to the day lol.
Where are you holding ECAD short from....form the 4HR BEOB the other day?
I took profit yesterday and now waiting for the break of the PPZ we are sitting on.
ACAD is in quite a choppy place at the moment...hopefully you'll get a hard break down soon. |
May 27, 2010 4:27am
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Trade 4 Short GU @ 1.4465 SL @ 1.4517 1.65% ish at risk (spreadbetting). Will move to Be at FTA then just leave probably to se how far we can go...cant take partial profits.
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May 27, 2010 4:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Trade 4 Short GU @ 1.4465 SL @ 1.4517 1.65% ish at risk (spreadbetting). Will move to Be at FTA then just leave probably to se how far we can go...cant take partial profits.
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Stop above the left eye.
update: stop moved to BE now as hit FTA quickly.
Also moved EG SL to BE+1 |
May 27, 2010 4:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Normally I'd take this long..Oil at resistance too...but the strong move leading up to where we are on Uc, CJ and oil has put me off.
The old me would have taken this for 1% without thinking about it...lets see what happens!
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Looks like the old me was correct on this...probably about 1R up now. |
May 27, 2010 4:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
ouch 2 losses, sure ull recover
yup, short ecad from yday and still holding, not looking at acad at the moment as was taking out at be already & is now messy
now if we end up a beob on ecad 4hr, i wld have loved to add but cant see any immediately floor so ill leave my orig position only to run
still waiting on gold pullback, anyways ill post anything that comes up
btw, watching oils next trouble area @ 7280 for rxn
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It going to close a DBHLC on my feed if it stays where it is or goes lower....across a round number and PPZ...looks good to me. My orders are just a few pips away anyway so effectively playing this bar before it occurs lol |
May 27, 2010 4:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Trade 4 Short GU @ 1.4465 SL @ 1.4517 1.65% ish at risk (spreadbetting). Will move to Be at FTA then just leave probably to se how far we can go...cant take partial profits.
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Closed at BE...just wasnt prepared to give this trade room even tohugh we are i a range and the overall trend is down there is so much chop on the 1HR so not prepared to suffer a potential loss on this.
On the upside I've not taken 5 trades on SB account 2 within the deadline so qualify for my free ?100 to be added to my account to trade with. |
May 27, 2010 4:38am
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I apologise for the constant spelling mistakes...I can spell, honest! Need a new keyboard as the keys stick sometimes on mine and when typing fast I dont always notice until after I've submitted the post...I work at 100mph! lol
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May 27, 2010 4:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Closed at BE...just wasnt prepared to give this trade room even tohugh we are i a range and the overall trend is down there is so much chop on the 1HR so not prepared to suffer a potential loss on this.
On the upside I've not taken 5 trades on SB account 2 within the deadline so qualify for my free ?100 to be added to my account to trade with.
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Well that was impressive...sent the email to customer support and within 5 minutes my account was credited! Have to say been very impressed with the service yoiu get from SB firms...1st class. Just a shame their spreads are sh*t on average compared to MT4 |
May 27, 2010 4:58am
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Trade 5 - Short E/CAD
position 1 @ 1.2950 with SL @ 1.3066 (above previous peak) - 1%
postiion 2 @ 1.2950 with SL @ 1.3010 (above round number - aggresive SL) - 1%
EG on its way to testing daily PPZ and bar lows will move SL down to just above the 1HR PPZ to 0.8473
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May 27, 2010 5:04am
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EG formed a 4HR BEOB on FxPro...dont like those bars lows which is a weekly PPZ but worht playng a break below so placed an order on Oanda @0.8448 with SL @ 0.8515 - 2%
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May 27, 2010 5:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
here's my 1st for today, lets see how it plays out
very simple right, just following my rules and accepting the outcome
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Looks good...might need to add E/CHf back onto my watchlist now it looks like a proper market again. |
May 27, 2010 5:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EG formed a 4HR BEOB on FxPro...dont like those bars lows which is a weekly PPZ but worht playng a break below so placed an order on Oanda @0.8448 with SL @ 0.8515 - 2%
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Trade 6 triggered...though I didnt see the divergence before....hmmm
Also taken speculative longs on AJ and aU ...they just look like they will eplode up...0.5% risk on each.
Trade 7 Long AJ and AU @ 75.50 and 0.8359...SL @ 75.15 and 0.8315.
Might turn out to be stupid trades but YM is on the move on the 1HR with a trail of bullish bars. |
May 27, 2010 5:19am
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A 1 HR oil chart shows how easy it should have been to play this little trend.
Easy breakout and pullback entries @ 69.25, 70, 70.75 and more entries if playing agggresive pure breakouts
If you were adventurous could have picked the bottom too...daily PPZ ...scroll down thetime frames to 30min and divergence.
All that was required was patience.
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May 27, 2010 5:21am
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Moved SL on EG trades to 0.8463...dont want a hard retrace / false breakout to catch me out.
GU looks like its broken out of its range for real this time...a TL is near and I'm on AU and AJ so will pass and wait for any retrace.
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May 27, 2010 5:28am
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Wathcing the 15 min chart on EG to see if the retest of the broken PPZ holds...if not I'll cut. it should form a 4HR BEOB on alpari clsoing in 30mins too. Wary though as GU is at a TL resistance so it need to break thorugh otherwise EG will rise.
moved SL to BE + 1 on EA...Want it to break the Tl and go and test the roun number again...I'll add an order below there if it can burst through.
Update...wow talk about a great retest! this better hold as resistance now lol! Moving stops to just above this area now.
TP would be 0.8400 looking at weekly chart.
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May 27, 2010 5:43am
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0.84000 to 0.8415 is monthly PPZ.
GU hit TL resistance and 'reacted' it also reached this area with divergence....hmmm might be over analysing but I've just taken full profit on EG trades now cos of it.
Maybe should have waited and given time and room for GU to break its TL...and left stops just above the EG PPZ thats probably the correct way to play it, but hey I'm not the perfect trader so I'm going with instincts and closed @ 0.8435 and 0.8438...markets are still volatile and saw yesterday on EAUD how quickly price can just reverse so I'd rather bank profits rather than try and catch 20-30 more pips to risk the 20-30 pips back up to my SL...its not worth the risk for me at the moment to try and let trades go to the moon.
Combined +3.35%
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May 27, 2010 5:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
0.84000 to 0.8415 is monthly PPZ.
GU hit TL resistance and 'reacted' it also reached this area with divergence....hmmm might be over analysing but I've just taken full profit on EG trades now cos of it.
Maybe should have waited and given time and room for GU to break its TL...and left stops just above the EG PPZ thats probably the correct way to play it, but hey I'm not the perfect trader so I'm going with instincts and closed @ 0.8435 and 0.8438...markets are still volatile and saw yesterday on EAUD how quickly price can just reverse so I'd rather...
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In any event I can always play the big 4HR BEOB if I want to |
May 27, 2010 5:48am
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In the mentime looks like I was right on AJ and AU...will move to BE+1 when/if they hit the round number just above.
YM is near recent highs and its lacked momentum recently to get above these bar highs...so I think its wise to move to BE on these soon.
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May 27, 2010 5:59am
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EC not tanking cos Oil and UC are both at resistance / support...wathcing for a push through in order to help this trade on its way.
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May 27, 2010 6:19am
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Short UC @ 1.0528 SL @ 1.0587 - 1%...broken TL and PPZ and oil is going up up up
Stops moved to BE+1 on AJ and AU longs...AJ is near a PPZ so might take profit and leave AU as is.
EA has broken TL...so next stop Round number...will put a pending order below the bar the previous bar lows at this PPZ area and move SL to just above TL break...want to see if can get a real runner on this one.
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May 27, 2010 6:25am
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Another go at EG...testing the PPZ again...got in late grrr @ 0.8442 SL @ 0.8460 1.3% @ risk (spreadbetting this one)
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May 27, 2010 7:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Another go at EG...testing the PPZ again...got in late grrr @ 0.8442 SL @ 0.8460 1.3% @ risk (spreadbetting this one)
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Not sure what caused that spike in EG...but got stopped out.
Took profit on AJ and AU. Its retesting the PPZ areas they broke so could go long...US GDP news would make me nervous oening positions though.
ECAD and EAUD still in play as is UC...but Oil falling not helping UC so might cut shortly.
+0.56 on AJ , +0.32 on AU and -1.01% on EG. |
May 27, 2010 7:55am
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Summary of all trades this morning:
1. S EUr/AUd @ 1.4737, SL@ 1.4385 - 1% - trade still open and sL moved to 1.4670
2. L GU @ 1.4519, SL@1.4465 - 1%. Closed @ 1.4476 -0.79%
3. S E/G @0.8490, SL @ 0.8515, 2%, Closed @ 0.8438 +3.02%
4. S GU 1.4465, SL @ 1.4517, 1.65%, Closed @ BE
5. S EUR/ CAD @ 1.2950, 1% SL @ 1.3010, 1% SL 1.3066...trade still open SL moved to 1.3010
6. S E/G @ 0.8448, SL @ 0.8515 - 2%, Closed @ 0.8435 +0.33%
7. L AJ and AU @ 75.50 SL @ 75.15 and 0.8359, 0.8315 0.5% on each.
Closed @ 76.02 and 0.8392 +0.56% and +0.32%
8. S U/C @ 1.0528 SL@1.0587 - 1% ...still open
9. S E/G @ 0.8442 SL@ 0.8460 - 1%, Closed @ 0.8460 - 1.01%
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May 27, 2010 8:32am
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Rubbish US data...will we get the same pattern we had yesterday...i.e. equities rise in the morning and get sold off in US session.
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May 27, 2010 8:47am
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U/CHf order got triggered and shot up to my Sl in about 2 minutues. -1.43% ...maybe my SL was too tight, but wont reenter...moving on.
Also cut UC as it broke back above the TL. -0.54%
Picked my exit on EG pretty well considering how it has reversed the whole move.
Added a pending short on E/AUd @ 1.4581
AU and AJ retesting breakout areas...GU retraced from the TL and is now on 1HR support. YM on 1HR support level.
not taking any trades until after US open...want to see what direction dow futures head
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May 27, 2010 9:15am
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Pending order E/AUD short triggered...moving SL on original position to Sl of pending order (1.4625)
Took a small AJ long (dow futures have settled down on support and AJ is holding its support - so no need to wait for US open) so a small long @ 75.74, SL@ 75.05 0.5%...if this holds then I'll add more on break of round number.
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May 27, 2010 9:21am
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I like the space below this BEOB so taken 1% on it. If it doesnt shoot down quickly I'll cut it.
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May 27, 2010 9:30am
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Pending order long on UJ to catcha breakout, 1% risk.
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May 27, 2010 9:50am
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Gonna add another order if we can get below the next PPZ.
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May 27, 2010 9:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
GU BOut looked more like a fake one. Didn t it
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It broke out hit the TL and reversed hard...might form a BEOb on 4H on Alpari in next 10 mins...if so I might just take it. |
May 27, 2010 9:52am
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Gbp and EUr is very weak compared to AUD and CAD. Not sure why USd / CHf is soaring though...the CHf pairs do baffle me at times!
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May 27, 2010 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Gbp and EUr is very weak compared to AUD and CAD. Not sure why USd / CHf is soaring though...the CHf pairs do baffle me at times!
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. |
May 27, 2010 9:54am
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The best trends still seem to be on the non-majors in particular EUr/xxx and GBP/xxx in particular against AUD, CAD, NZD
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May 27, 2010 9:56am
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UJ breakout trade triggered @ 90.66, SL @ 90.22 - 1% risk
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May 27, 2010 10:10am
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I missed this one and took GAUd instead as price moved too fast for me to get in on the BEOb...but you can see how fast these pairs can move...if you wait for the low probability setups on these pairs from what I've seen they move pretty fast in your favour.
Added pending shorts on G/A, E/C and GU
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May 27, 2010 10:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Gold is taking a break, anybody for long ?
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7 trades on the go and 4 pending orders...think I'll leave it like that for now. lol
Adding a positon on AJ looks appealing though |
May 27, 2010 10:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ you really need a bigger computer and a 46 " screen to manage all these trades. How many you already had today ? Just kidding |
Well my 22in widescreen LG Full HD monitor came this morning and its sweet!
I've got 3 monitors now and thats all I can fit on my desk! |
May 27, 2010 10:29am
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I chickened out and took some profit..closed G/AUd...but nowpending order has just been acivated.
Also closed one of my E/CAD trades leaving one open and one pending order.
Still long AJ...(very small size) short E/A (240 pips up) and long UJ.
Wanted to add AJ long but still being cautious.
Not trading tomorrow as out and about, bank holiday monday and then off on Holiday for one week from Wednesday so next Tuesday uis my last trading day for over a week. Will be looking to wind down my current trades later today and not looking to open any more unless somethnig great presents itself.
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May 27, 2010 10:33am
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Break or retrace...I hope a break to help my AJ and UJ trades.
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May 27, 2010 10:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj, when you take the ppz break trades, you pull the trigger when? by how many pips do you like to see the break? and do you trade these breaks on 5-15m time frames and therefore wait for candle close above the breaks before taking a trade?
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Depends on the pair..I look for the lowest wick (if taking a short) then add 5-10 pips to it.
I dont normally go down to the 5min just take it on 1HR or 4HR and place trade 5-10 pips below the lowest wick low within the PPZ |
May 27, 2010 10:52am
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Right...with Dow at resistance and retraces occuring on my EC,GA and EA trades its a good time to end for the day and week.
Closed all trades and put them in my spreadsheet, stats for the week:
49 trades
63% win rate
Account growth +15.26%
Getting back to double digit weekly growth and all whilst risking less than normal and being more picky. I am to continue with my current style of trading but will start risking more per trade like I did before (2-3%) rather than the current average of 1%.
Good trading to all...I'll be in and out tomorrow so will take a glance at some charts and post anything I like on here but wont be taking any trades myself.
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May 27, 2010 10:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj,
h4 on NU attached. i presume 6820 shd be a ppz on your charts too. so you would be looking for a break of the current candle (which is the highest candle) by 5-10 pips to go long right?
and your sls are based on?
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Yeah that area is a daily PPZ.
I wouldnt say I would be overly keen on taking a long above there though as its not a well defined range like AU, AJ and GU were for example, plus there is some immediate trouble ahead. But if I were then year probably 5pips + spread above that bar. With regards SL, its discretionary for me when trading a breakout...I ask myself how far would it have to go for me to consider that the breakout was a false breakout.
When playing breakouts aggresively like this I'm looking for price to run on and not look back...I'm looking for buyers to come in and take it up fast...thus if it retraced below I'd be quick to cut.
But personally I wouldnt take that as there were much clearer breakout setups on other xxx/usd pairs. |
May 27, 2010 11:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yeah that area is a daily PPZ.
I wouldnt say I would be overly keen on taking a long above there though as its not a well defined range like AU, AJ and GU were for example, plus there is some immediate trouble ahead. But if I were then year probably 5pips + spread above that bar. With regards SL, its discretionary for me when trading a breakout...I ask myself how far would it have to go for me to consider that the breakout was a false breakout.
When playing breakouts aggresively like this I'm looking for price to run on and not look back...I'm...
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Another thing I sometimes do like I did on AJ is to put a small test postion out...thus thought it would break thus risked 0.5% as a test position and then can look to add if indeed it does continue up with the high momentum i'm looking for.
Another point on SL....if there is an obious collection of bar lows within the 'range' then I'd also put it below there..as per chart below this is where I put my SL on AJ. |
May 28, 2010 2:30am
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Morning Folks,
Just took a glancing look at my charts....YM is at an interesting place 10250 PPZ. 50 fib and falling TL...
Oil has the same confluence too @ 75 area.
I'd keep buying Gold or keep hold of gold until 1226 area or a break of the rising 4HR TL
UJ also has another confluenced setup for a short and EU is closng on the falling TL / channel for a short opportunity too.
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May 28, 2010 3:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
BTW 75 was the target because it is a point of a possible reversal. There is already a DBHLC on H4
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Add some fibs and a TL on H4...scroll down to 1H and note the divergence...pull the trigger |
May 28, 2010 3:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Ok, here it is. I'm not a doomsday witch hunter, but my last S&P long term analysis was something like this, but in the mean time there was a quick retrace above 1150 that didn't hold.
Next, I guess we'll go for something like this. Keep in mind that markets fall harder than they rise, so the right shoulder will be more violent than the left one.
Of course, if 1150 doesn't present us with hard cold facts (like obvious resistance, hard rejection of price etc.) than this falls. But there are a lot of signs pointing us that it won't be the case.
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Dont follow S&P...but this looks like a great setup...will add it to my watchlist now. |
May 28, 2010 3:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm on demo, so 'money' at risk shouldn't matter, because I have no attachment to it. It's more like the fear of being wrong that makes me make mistakes... And that's something hard to work on, but needs to be done.
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What i used to do was take the same trades on 2 demo accounts...1 I would cut when I thought I was wrong i.e. quite quickly if trade didnt go my way and the other one I'd just leave until either my initial SL was hit or price moved to my TP area / move Sl to BE+1 area etc. This allowed me to work out whether I was cutting trades just cos they were in the negative or because I knew the reason I took the trade was now invalidated etc. |
May 28, 2010 3:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
GU aiming to retest the BOut at 1.45. Interesting !
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Dax, FTSE and Dow futures are all at resistance areas ... falling TL's on 4H on FTSE and DAX |
May 28, 2010 5:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Thanks Sq,
I am trying to learn from LJ and this thread is a good help. He is the guy that moves fast. He is on vacation but I bet he is going to launch at least 10 trades today |
HAHA...no trades today. On vacation from Wednesday next week but busy doing other things today. About to pop out for a few hours...damn EU...its hits my touch trade short area when I'm not trading... |
May 28, 2010 11:17am
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Damn...just got back to see YM dropping EU and oil dropping just like I said earlier today...they really were no brainer setups there on oil, YM and EU by my setup standards.
If I were trading today I would have taken those 3 trades and EA + GA shorts and shut my computer down and walked away. Maybe I shouod have jsut done that anyway set SL and TP and walked away...hmmmm
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May 28, 2010 12:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Damn...just got back to see YM dropping EU and oil dropping just like I said earlier today...they really were no brainer setups there on oil, YM and EU by my setup standards.
If I were trading today I would have taken those 3 trades and EA + GA shorts and shut my computer down and walked away. Maybe I shouod have jsut done that anyway set SL and TP and walked away...hmmmm
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I really should have put these trade on below...been waiting for EU in particualr to reach this area all week and setting touch trades with fixed SL and TP would have worked out well...I would have set them and walked away in anycase had I been trading so should have just done that. Sometimes some of the best trades are the ones where you set SL and TP and walk away. |
May 31, 2010 5:31am
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Mormning all, just thought I'd pop in and say hi.
not trading today as it's a bank holiday in UK (and US) so out and about for most of the day.
Haven't even opened my charts since Friday. I dount there will be many decent moves today due to the bank holiday's.
I'll be back much later after I've been through my daily and weekly charts to post anything I see of interest.
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May 31, 2010 2:11pm
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E/CAD offered a nice triangle breakout with trend opportunity a while ago...the only thing I've seen whilst going through my charts that I would have traded today so far.
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Jun 1, 2010 3:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning
Short on Oil at 74.00. Break of 4hr PB at 75 area. SL above the PB
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Very nice...I would have taken this too if I hadn't overslept!
Definitely regretting not setting pending orders on Friday on oil @ 75.50 and EU @ 1.2450 grrrr |
Jun 1, 2010 4:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I was lucky. 10 sec after I put in the order it started to fall. Almost every pair has a 4hr outside bar. Let's see how they will retrace.
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There's no luck involved in taking a good setup
Whats your plan for this trade...price is sitting on a daily PPZ area now... |
Jun 1, 2010 4:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Something strange with Gold and Silver. One is going up whilst the other is falling |
Gold is more of a safe haven trade than Silver...i.e. commodities are generally sold quite hard when equities have a sell off, but Gold has the potential to rise as people buy gold, USD and JPY when risk appetite is falling etc. |
Jun 1, 2010 5:39am
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Took 2 AJ shorts this morning...but both exited @ BE+1. In a CJ short from 85.97 but its a poor trade...didnt check news and we have CAD rate announcement later with expectations of a rate increase. CAD is relatively strong across the board this morning so poor trade...looking for optimum position to exit prior to news.
dont see much else and i'm busy packing and doing other pre-holiday stuff so not overly fussed about taking any trades unless they are great short term setups.
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Jun 1, 2010 7:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Where are you heading off to?
I'm going to Edinburgh in the middle of August. I don't know yet if I'll take a connecting flight to London, but if I get there, maybe we'll get a beer or something. |
I really like Edinburgh, a smaller version of the nicer parts of London IMO. I got engaged there too!
Off to Paphos in Cyprus...just for a relatively cheap week away in the Sun.
Yeah, if you get to London have to grab a beer |
Jun 1, 2010 7:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
Morning guys, also here
been reading roaso over the weekend , and I must say it's definaley a must read IMHO
didn't know when I got to chapter 8 and I'm not the biggest reader,
anyways catch u guys later as today is pretty slow
cheers guys
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It's one of my fav trading books too...I'm not a keen reader either but found this a great book to read...got 50 pages to go which I'll finish on the plane journey tomorrow |
Jun 1, 2010 9:37am
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Looks like a choppy day today...GBP is very strong which seems a bit odd as no news for it be rising against the likes of NZD, CAD and AUD like it has today. glad I'm not really looking for trades today as price action doesnt look that appealing to me at the moment.
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Jun 1, 2010 10:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
It is a strange day. 100 + pips down in the morning followed by 100 up, to bring us back to where we were.
US news are positive. I have the feeling we re going to move down again. Roller coaster
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We've had that a fair bit recently...down in Europe then up in US session |
Jun 1, 2010 11:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
A lot of people using the same TL, my order has been hit to the pip. This does not mean it is going to move down now. |
I would have done the same...EU is in a clear 4HR channel |
Jun 1, 2010 2:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Happy to hear that. Am I becoming a better student ? |
lol.
We have a nice channel on 4HR EU...but price not being able to push significantly lower is a concern as it the inability for YM to hold below 10k for long.
We should have a decent break in one direction soon...personally my gut feel is that equity markets will retrace the recent sell off before heading down again but technically I'd be keeping it simple and sticking with shorts. |
Jun 1, 2010 2:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Some areas I like in order to take some trend trades i.e. pullbacks to confluenced areas on the H4 or daily timeframe in order to get into the current trend @ a discount. I like to use confluence of a H4 od daily PPZ together with 50 or 61 fibs rounded to the nearest round nubmer i.e. 50 or 00.
Have to be careful with correlation on these as they are mostly against the USD or JPY so should move in the same direction depending on the movement of the dow etc. These trades are on the assumption that the dow will reach new lows after a pullback i.e....
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Didnt take any of these due to impending holiday, but UC, AU would be working out ok. Would have amended EU to 1.2450 as it took longer to reach the TL than expected.
GU not hit yet (and would lower sell entry to just below 1.4800 now) and CJ would have taken a loss on. |
Jun 1, 2010 3:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Check out GU daily. Short opportunity at around 1.48, pullback after breakout.
LJ, do you get these artifacts on JING? All of a sudden I get those pixels, like the monitor's busted, but it's Jing. Maybe it did an update and it messed up. Ever had such a problem? I'll reinstall it...
Anyways, have a good trip, send us pictures. |
No, just checked and its fine on mine?
1.48 looks good to me, also a 50% fib as confluence too. |
Jun 6, 2010 7:00am
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Hi Guys,
Hope trading is going well and all making tons of pips!
halfway through my holiday and couldnt resist checking emails, forums etc...though havent looked at any charts.
So what's been going on, dow still hovering around 10k mark (futures) and other xxx/usd in ranges...that would be my guess???
Gotta dash check back tomorrow
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Jun 7, 2010 6:35am
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Thanks for the charts...I'd heard this morning that Asia had dropped 4% due to poor Us employment numbers and hungary concerns...presume the Euro has reached a new low too.
Was hoping that we wouldn't have another leg down until I got back...oh well.
Catcha all when I'm back on Thursday
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Jun 9, 2010 12:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Guys,
I just come back from my holiday so I missed many your good posts,but I can not see recently any Mark's post here .Is he ok?
Happy trading.
FX.
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I'm currently in Paphos, Cyrpus...just waiting for to be picked up for transfer to airport for flight home. I'll be landing at London Gatwick at 2am local UK time and then 90 min drive home, not a nice fliight time!
will spend tomorrow catching up with sleep and then looking at charts to see what's gone on since I've been away with a view to start trading again Friday.
My two big focuses over the next month are trading / making some serious account gains and the football world cup |
Jun 10, 2010 6:14am
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Haven't got a chart to hand but AU - 4HR TL and PPZ break and retest...scroll down to the 1Hr and you can see the retest more clearly and a BUOB formed too.
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Jun 10, 2010 6:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Haven't got a chart to hand but AU - 4HR TL and PPZ break and retest...scroll down to the 1Hr and you can see the retest more clearly and a BUOB formed too.
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Now I do... |
Jun 10, 2010 6:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Welcome back.
That was my entry but I did not wait for the BUOB and I used the IB in stead. |
Thanks.
Looks good to me.
just catching up on various things and browsing charts and that stood out.
Anyone short gold near its highs and catch the daily pin bar that formed? |
Jun 10, 2010 6:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squeezy
hey there ogeid, nice .....
welcome back Lovejoy, how does it feel to be back to trading, sure u r fully recharged now............
now go and make them pips, & thats an ORDER....lol
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I'm very tired...only had 3 hours sleep so far having travelled all night. Had to get up to go to Dentist to have root canal, just what you want on your first day after a holiday lol.
Gonna grab some more sleep, be back later once I've looked properly over my charts again.
Definitely missed out on lots of pips on E/CAD shorts and E/U shorts (missing the touch trade as wasn't trading on the Friday we reached the fib, PPZ and TL confluence). |
Jun 10, 2010 12:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You are killing me, I am still long AU, just need some stupid 20 more pips!!
Are you sure about that TL ? It is a triple top at a key RN 0.85. 4Hr tL posted by LJ is stronger IMO.
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Sloping TL, weekly PPZ area, RN and 1HR divergence..enough reason to either take some profit, all profit, move to BE etc IMO.
Personally I would have taken some profit and moved to BE+1 on the remainder. |
Jun 10, 2010 1:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Tell us about your trip. welcome back. Did you bring me Gyros? |
It was good thanks, we got a good late deal on an all inclusive place...was great vlaue for money and just spent the whole time, relaxing, eating, drinkings playing a bit of footie and doing some swimming. Was really hot though.
wish i'd taken my netbook and I defo will on any future holidays it was a pain not being to keep up to date with what was going on. npt suire what 3G charges would be like but would have like to have looked twice a day at charts and news.
holiday was a nice relaxing holiday overall, would definitely like to go back and go self catering, hire a car and explore Cyprus in more detail. went out once for a meal and had a traditional Cypriot Mezee...was ok but wasn't overly fussed.
Still very tired, but nearly finished going over charts with a view to being back to normal trading tomorrow.
Can't wait for the WC to start either! I don't think England are actually that strong, we've had stronger sqauds in the past and we have too many players who are inconsistent or not proven at international level...I wouldn't have chosen some of the players capello has chosen. We do have a good draw though...just cant wait for it to start now! |
Jun 11, 2010 4:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Morning guys,
Mark I think u have players to get to final,only problem is goalkeeper and they must to play like a team!!
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Morning.
yeah I think defo need to play better as a team than have been and the bulk of the players have to perform at their best. |
Jun 11, 2010 6:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning,
sorry if I am off subject and I disturb your conversations about : food, football, next will be cars
My AU trade closed overnight at .85 I believe short from there would be a good choice even if there is not an evidence of PA.
I am still doubting about pending short EU at 1.215. My order has been missed by 3 pips and the pair is stalling in between 1.21 and 1.215. Cause it is Friday I might cancel it. |
Ha!
that is a good place for a short IMO.
I've gone short GJ this morning (pin bar off a TL) and EU @ 1.2105 - TL and PPZ area so a trend trade. |
Jun 11, 2010 6:28am
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some more trades...
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Jun 11, 2010 6:32am
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There were also Pa bars on G/CAd, G/AUD and G/NZD which I missed.
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Jun 11, 2010 8:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
what kind of sls on cable and euro trades?
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1.4762 for cable...i.e. just above the BEOB.
200 pip SL on EU...trying out a trend trade with a wide stop. |
Jun 11, 2010 8:39am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Ha!
that is a good place for a short IMO.
I've gone short GJ this morning (pin bar off a TL) and EU @ 1.2105 - TL and PPZ area so a trend trade.
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Gj out @ BE. Price hit FTA, I moved SL to BE it then hit this area before continuing down and has burst down through TL on the back of really poor US retail sales data.
stop moved to BE on GU trade and will leave it to see if can get down to 1.4500 area. Sl moved up on EG to 0.8270 as price has broken above a PPZ area so banking on this holding if price is to continue upwards.
Will probably have a lot of BEOB's on the 1HR xxx/jpy pairs following the Us retail sales data... |
Jun 11, 2010 11:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You can see the WC started LOL
The first match opening was very nice, quite emotional.
Next coming trading weeks will be affected by the event, especially in Europe. In my previous experience I saw certain businesses going completely flat during the World Cup matches.
Anyway, no more trades for this week.
Good luck everybody with your Team. We play on Monday.
Enjoy the weekend.
LJ. Nice to have you back. |
Yeah you sure can.
I closed my GU and EG trades earlier for some profit...if it wasn't Friday and if I wasn't doing other things then I would have left open. closed @ 1.4574 and @ 0.8293...I reckon I've closed them well short of where they can go but had enough of trading for today as wanna do other things, plus still catching up on sleep. Those few trades have added nearly 2% to my account today.
Only open trade is EU from 1.2105 with 200 pip SL.
Looking forward to lots of football over the weekend...and of course the big game tomorrow ...wow what an opening goal to the world cup that was...an awesome strike! |
Jun 13, 2010 8:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Talk about bad goalkeeping...
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you don't get much worse than that! Though better to make a mistake at this stage than further down the line.
It was like watching the same old England though...can't dominate midfield or keep possession for long periods and both wingers showed their true co lours...lots of pace but no final ball...they are so inconsistent it drives us mad! It was a big mistake taking players like them who have had dodgy seasons over younger more inform players. Still had two great chances to win it though...both shots were pretty poor at this level, gotta be clinical. On that evidence England are far from a great side at the moment, so many things that need improving.
Just watching the Algeria - Slovenia game whilst going over my charts...it's a very very dull game! |
Jun 13, 2010 2:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
whilst its easy to cast green as the villain, there should have been more goals scored given that the US defence was so poor.
anything looking good on your charts?
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Indeed, Heskey and Wright-philips had chances that they should be burying at this level...but then both players have been in poor form for club all season.
Here are some charts that are of interest for me in terms of locations that are near.
1. YMMO - 10250 area - Tl, PPZ and fib confluence and if not this area then 10430 area which has PPZ and two fib confluences.
2. Oil - further moves down?
3. Gold - breakout to new highs or retracement to TL / PPZ areas
4. U/CHF - PPz, TL and fib confluence
5. A/U - near top of daily range.
6. EU...can 1.2140 hold as resistance...I hope so. |
Jun 13, 2010 4:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
So what will you need to see to pull trigger on usdchf? There already a beovb isn't there. ?
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I'd just take a touch near the confluenced area.
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Jun 14, 2010 3:48am
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1HR U/CAD BUOB trade in play - 2% at risk.
BEOB is off a weekly PPZ area.
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Jun 14, 2010 3:56am
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As I mentioned yesterday AU is at the top of it's range...I've taken a speculative short with 0.5% at risk and will add further positions if we start to break lower / get some PA.
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Jun 14, 2010 4:01am
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Also have this pending short in...1.75% @ risk. Will cancel if it doesnt trigger in this hour though.
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Jun 14, 2010 4:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
As I mentioned yesterday AU is at the top of it's range...I've taken a speculative short with 0.5% at risk and will add further positions if we start to break lower / get some PA.
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1st position was entered @ 0.8557 with SL @ 0.8585
2nd pending short (1%) is @ 0.8540 with same SL |
Jun 14, 2010 4:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
question - there have been significant green bars pushing against the 8500 level.wouldnt you look at 86 for better entries? or is this because of the bearish recent h1 bar?
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I see the PPZ and confluence starting @ 0.8540 area...thus I'm testing the waters so to speak to see if this area will hold based on divergence on the 30 min chart. Not looking good at the moment.
I'd be then looking for 0.8640 for another short opportunity...especially if YMMO was @ 10400 too. |
Jun 14, 2010 4:55am
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EUR and GBP are strong this morning and I have valid 'signals' to go long them and short AUD and CAD.
Made the mistake of going long GJ and EU and short AU, long UC...where I should have mayeb been looking for longs on EC,EA, GC, GA.
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Jun 14, 2010 5:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
EUR and GBP are strong this morning and I have valid 'signals' to go long them and short AUD and CAD.
Made the mistake of going long GJ and EU and short AU, long UC...where I should have maybe been looking for longs on EC,EA, GC, GA.
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Was very close to going long EA and EC earlier today...the TL on EA put me off but EC has been looking good for longs for the past few days. I4B on GCAD was an opportunity |
Jun 14, 2010 5:04am
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Cut AU and UC trades @ 0.8578 and 1.0296 for losses of roughly 1.73% and 0.38%
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Jun 14, 2010 5:14am
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I got cr*p spreads on this...pure breakout trade...1%
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Jun 14, 2010 5:24am
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Gotta go out in 30mins for about an hour so will leave positions as is and have set some TP's @ 1.2440, 134.50, 1.7093
In summary I am long G/AUD, EU and GJ and have had losses on AU short and UC long this morning.
I'm still bearish AU at the moment though...
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Jun 14, 2010 5:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
You are long and short on euro ?
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No, just long? moved SL to BE+1 now as price is @ 1.2250 area. |
Jun 14, 2010 5:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Also a possibility ?
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Indeed...I favoured a short because of the confluence at this area but looks like I was wrong.
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Jun 14, 2010 7:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
Ok your post # 2235 I thought you were short @ 2105
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I did but I moved SL to BE and got stopped out ...once price had broken the PPZ area the reason for the trade would have been invalidated so decided to move to BE quickly. |
Jun 14, 2010 7:51am
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got stopped out on G/AUD...perhaps SL was too tight...if we get some PA off this TL I'll consider going long again.
EU and GJ longs still in play. was hoping price would come back to the RN / T so I could add a better long entry on GJ but it went back to the RN when I was out.
I still favour a weaker AUD compared to other currencies looking @ AU and AJ charts. Thus still looking for xxx/AUD long opportunities.
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Jun 14, 2010 8:22am
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Added another EU long - 1.5%
4H charts shows target area.
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Jun 14, 2010 9:20am
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decided to take full profit on EU and GJ trades...maybe a lack of pateince but going into US open I want to wait and see how the market reacts this afternoon before playing any 1HR trades.
In waiting mode at the moment
Missed a touch trade short on Oil futures.
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Jun 14, 2010 11:15am
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Took this pin bar following breakout and pullback to TL and have a pending long on gold @ 1216 with stop @ 1210 (1.5%)
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Jun 14, 2010 11:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ do you have a Sunday gap on EU on your feeds? Especially Oanda.
Cheers
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I had a small gap on fxpro but no gap on Oanda... |
Jun 14, 2010 12:48pm
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IB @ PPZ with big divergence...TP 135 for some take profit.
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Jun 14, 2010 2:02pm
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GJ out at BE+1...moved SL @ FTA which was close.
Was waiting all day for some PA on oil instead of taking the touch trade...and I was having tea when I missed it grrrrrrr...PPZ, TL, Fibs, divergence and then a 15 min BEOB.
Gold just missed my long trigger too.
Think I might start taking Monday's off...never seem to do well and today has been frustrating.
FTSE pin looks like going to be a 2% loser too.
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Jun 14, 2010 3:56pm
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A decent area of confluence for a touch trade short.
There was also a nice pin bar on 4H dow futures ... its at FTA area now so if it holds then hopefully GJ trade will trigger...though I dont like the fact 135.00 didnt hold...though we could now have an IB.
As an aside I've decided to just use FxPro and Oanda for the forseeable future.
Oanda has great spreads on average and the ability to open and close precise unit sizes is ideal to calculate precise risk and take partial profits. Only down side is I cant use a trade manager EA...but if I do have trades overnnight I'll just stay awake and watch them if they are close to trouble areas etc or set TP and leave.
I'll only use fxPro for gold, Silver, Oil and Equity futures trades and where stop size is small enough that my lot size will be higher than the minimum so I can take partial profits if need be. I did consider re-funding alpari micro account as I can use better lots sizes i.e. in 0.01 increments rather than 0.10 increments but potentially having trades on 3 different platforms is just not ideal and was too hard to keep track off before.
I've also put spreadbetting to one side for the timebeing...I'll do some trades randomly to keep the accounts going but until my total account size is much bigger I want to leave these as the spreads on average are worse...I have to read their 'rolling trade' criteria each time and double check everything so I want to just concentrate on growing the account as quickly as possible (could really do with some 50% weeks like I had at the start of the journal again!!) and if I have to pay some tax then so be it and then consider spreadbetting properly again further down the road to max my earnings as tax efficient as possible.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Jun 14, 2010 4:19pm
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Jun 14, 2010 4:33pm
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Now have an IB on GJ...have placed pending orders essentially above and below the pin bar as prefer price to clear these areas first with set TP in place in case it triggers during Asia.
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Jun 14, 2010 4:40pm
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Missed the touch trade @ 89.80 area...I've missed a lot today must concentrate better...but will take the daily pin. I have two entries - 1.5% @ 88.40 with Sl above pin high @ 89.90 and 1.5% with Sl above 1st eye @ 89.10. TP is set @ 88.40 for now.
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Jun 15, 2010 1:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
tp = same as entry?
on eurcad you are looking at longs or shorts?
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Typo...meant to say 87.40...FTA as identified by the blue rectangle in my chart.
E/CAd short - touch entry was awesome if I do say so myself! short from 1.2638 with SL @ 1.2668...will move to SL+1 now. |
Jun 15, 2010 2:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stern-Capita
Where can we see your current stats to date man?
Good luck |
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/real-account2/30664
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/real-fxpro-gbp/32949
These are my Oanda and fxpro accounts...90% of trades are taken on these.
I wouldn't pay much attention to % increase and % drawdown though as my lot size is calculated on my total fund size (which is both these accounts plus more in my bank) not the individual account so they are both inflated.
From my new account start date of 20th May account is up 33.12% |
Jun 15, 2010 2:09am
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GJ IB long was triggered and just hit SL with the short now being triggered. ECAD SL @ BE+1. GU long still in play from yesterday and CJ shorts basd on daily PB now in play.
A very poor day yesterday lost over 4%, need to concentrate more as missed a gold trade, CJ touch trade and YM pin bar on 4H.
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Jun 15, 2010 2:34am
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pending short on YMMO
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Jun 15, 2010 2:35am
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Took half profit on ECAD short and half profit on GJ short...moving SL down...hoping we can break that level marked so can make up for the loss caused by the long trade!
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Jun 15, 2010 3:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj,
did you cancel this yest? its up 100 pips now.
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I've just taken remaining profit on GJ short and have half left open on ECAD short.
GJ is actually at a touch trade long area...but decided to leave it and just take profit...equity futres are all at support so I would favour a bounce fomr here hence why taking profit. |
Jun 15, 2010 3:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I've just taken remaining profit on GJ short and have half left open on ECAD short.
GJ is actually at a touch trade long area...but decided to leave it and just take profit...equity futres are all at support so I would favour a bounce fomr here hence why taking profit.
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the touch trade opportunity...61 fib + PPZ + TL...should have loaded up on it really. |
Jun 15, 2010 3:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I've just taken remaining profit on GJ short and have half left open on ECAD short.
GJ is actually at a touch trade long area...but decided to leave it and just take profit...equity futres are all at support so I would favour a bounce fomr here hence why taking profit.
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Just realised you meant AJ...yeah I cancelled it yesterday...couldnt get a pin point entry |
Jun 15, 2010 3:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Morning,
N/U beautiful PBs H4 and H1 off key PPZ and BRN 0.7.
Unfortunately I was not at the computer. I entered on the daily one. Grrrr
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SAw these too after the event...would have loaded up on these...4HR attached.
Daily isnt good on my feed. |
Jun 15, 2010 3:16am
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My view is that equity futures are all sitting on support levels so path of least resistance is up...hence i'd expect a bounce up on xxx/usd in particular now. We could break the support levels but we need a catalyst for this.
Will we follow the typical pattern of late of a rise in european session followed by a drop in US session...
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Jun 15, 2010 3:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
LJ, What level is your order. 10180 is a strong daily PPZ. Did you go below that ?
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Yes 10165 with SL @ 10212...ie. a pure break of that PPZ , TL and fibs.
looking to add to ECAD trade so have a pending short on break of minor 1HR support...short @ 1.2575 SL @ 1.2605 |
Jun 15, 2010 3:28am
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Another pending trade...return to previous resistance combined with fibs and TL...1%
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Jun 15, 2010 4:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
yes, was going to point out 2150 to you.. what sl would you go for here? and what about AU at 8500, ?
ps: feel free to ask me to shut up if i am posting too much or asking too much.
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I missed AU, otherwise would have taken that. EU SL is @ 1.2130 i.e. 25 pips...though might have missed the boat. Should have taken GJ touch trade. |
Jun 15, 2010 4:52am
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Another missed touch trade opportunity...but might have a pin bar to trade with a very close FTA.
Potential touch trade short @ 1.7750 on E/N.
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Jun 15, 2010 5:00am
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both dow and oil futures are winding up for a breakout...PA seems to indicate north...
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Jun 15, 2010 5:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Nothing is missed LJ they are all coming back.
Get ready.
. |
Hopefully they will all come back and YMMO will be @ 10180-90 and then YMMO will soar up to 10400.
It's been a while Nasir...how are you? How is trading going...you've stopped your journal I noticed? |
Jun 15, 2010 5:42am
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CJ daily pin hit the first minor trouble area and started to reverse...bit disappointing...have moves SL's on both to just above left eye. In mentime we have a 4HR pin bar off a TL, so have a pending long on a break...hopefully it wont trigger.
ECAD trades hit SL which I'd moved down to 1.2598 as didn't like the way ECAD was reversing.
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Jun 15, 2010 6:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
CJ daily pin hit the first minor trouble area and started to reverse...bit disappointing...have moves SL's on both to just above left eye. In mentime we have a 4HR pin bar off a TL, so have a pending long on a break...hopefully it wont trigger.
ECAD trades hit SL which I'd moved down to 1.2598 as didn't like the way ECAD was reversing.
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Doh, forgot you cant hedge on Oanda so my long order just decreased my short daily pin bar trade |
Jun 15, 2010 6:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
i'm afraid, YM is not coming back.
I bought them all when YM jumped off the TL and Double Top but then i closed them at small losses anticipating for the levels highlighted in above charts.
Thing have't been smooth outside the monitor screen here. I have stopped the journal but will continue it as things come back to normal.
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Yeah I was just thinking missed the boat this time... I nearly bought them all last night when YM first touched 10185.
Well I hope things come back to normal |
Jun 15, 2010 9:51am
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Decided to go long YM and oil..plus also have small positions long on AJ and AU.
Long YM from 10264 / 67 and oil from 74.58
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Jun 15, 2010 10:49am
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Oil going ok...could do with a big push up through 76.50 area...i'd then be targeting 78.
Dow is moving up slowly...could do with a big push up through 10300...thinking og entering an additional position above 10300.
Went long E/CAD too with 1% position...series of HH and HL on 1HR chart and broken above PPZ area...could this be a trend change?!
Went long @ 1.2652, SL @ 1.2600
Last edited by lovejoy80, Jun 15, 2010 10:59am
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Jun 15, 2010 11:12am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
watching this too, and in with you, more or less at same price.
watch cable. if daily closes above 4800 we might well have that trend change!
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Yep I agree..and have a small long in play already on cable....above 1.4800 target would be 1.500 looking at daily....but we really need YMMO to break 10300 and close above it....until then I'm cautious wiht small positions long xxx/usd...and then can load up if/when dow shows us the way.
Oil is really going some now...76.90 is problem area for me.
Gold is also looking to breakout...missed my long order yesterday by few pips @ 1216
Something else I dont like is the amount of divergence across the board at these new highs...
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Jun 15, 2010 12:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
YM, H1 closed above it, if H4 confirms it we have a chance |
yeah I added a second entry @ 10321. Havent played these moves great today. Really wanted to load up on xxx/usd, xxx/jpy longs on anticipation of YM breaking higher...but missed entry points earlier today (as marked by Nasir) then got in...got nervous and exited again...I find it hard to just enter positions without any specific technical play on the pair in questions.
I actually entered longs on most pairs on demo about 90mins ago and left themand am in a decent level of profit on those...should have just entered the longs this morning i.e. should have not missed my touch trade entries then I could have scaled in more positions as YM advanced. Oh well. |
Jun 15, 2010 2:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
will you short this lj?
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Thinking about it... if 10370 on dow holds as resistance then GU should bounce down from this level. I'll be looking for GU to close below 1.4800 on 4HR chart i.e. I'll enter on way back down if that makes sense |
Jun 15, 2010 2:52pm
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I've traded very poorly today.
I knew YM was very likely to break it's range to the upside and its currently gone exactly where I expected it to go. I missed the obvious touch trade entries this morning 0.8500 on AU, 134 on GJ etc etc. When I entered YM trades I should have loaded up with about 5% worth of xxx/usd longs(cumulative) but as I did not have precise Pa on the individual pairs I kept entering and exiting. I also exited YM longs and Oil longs too early.
I entered some set lot size longs on demo this afternoon (i.e. well after the touch trade opportunities this morning) and just closed them all for a 14% account gain on demo.
Not sure why I'm being inpatient and getting nervous with positions...something I need to resolve asap!!
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Jun 15, 2010 3:08pm
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Some charts...
Equity futures all at daily resistance areas now. I prefer dow at 10430 , but we are still at a valid PPZ area with divergence
Gold looks good for a long if we get a retest of the TL/PPZ and I'll be putting a pending long on in a moment.
Oil is at daily PPZ too and fibs / MA confluence.
Lastly, Silver is now at a resistance area too.
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Jun 15, 2010 3:42pm
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With equity futures at resistance levels its time to look at currencies to see whether we have any short opportunities. The best potential setups IMO are EJ, EU, GU and GJ...which are all at or near resistance levels....in particular GU as per chart below...PPZ and 50% fib confluence.
I still think YMMO will run up to 10430-40 area...so only going to enter a couple of trades until we get nearer that area on YMMO. GU is the best setup IMO and I've tested the water with 1% short with SL above recent highs.
Aside form this gone long E/CAD as testing broken resistance as support now.
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Jun 16, 2010 2:07am
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Not having a great week so far this week and certainly not getting anywhere close to the type of weekly gains I was making nearer the beginning of this journal...trying to work out whether it's me or the market! One thing I will start keeping a record of is the type of trades I am making so either:
Touch Trade (TT)
Price Action Trade (PA)
Breakout (BO)
Intraday P&V / trend trading (P&V)
Longer Term Trend Trading (LTT)
That way I can keep a more accurate record of the types of trade I am making and which is causing me winners and which are causing more too many losers. I'll post a summary at the end of each day of all my trades per category, this way I can keep a ongoing total.
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Jun 16, 2010 2:21am
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Oil trade was stopped out over night.
Re-entered @ 76.99 with SL @ 78.00. also short on YMMO @ 10369, SL@10510
Existing positions from yesterday still in play:
1. G/U short @ 1.4806, SL@ 1.4842
2. E/U short @ 1.2319, SL @ 1.2375
3. G/AUD (daily pin...though not going to plan - have 3% on this!) @ 1.7093, SL @ 1.7270
4. C/J - daily pin bar from yesterday @ 88.40, SL @ 89.35
Fpor me the question is can we have another bullish day on the equity markets I hope not!) or will the potential resistance levels I marked yesterday hold...Will 10370 hold on YM or will we get up to 10430-40 area. These are all counter the intraday trend, but there is too much resistance above to start going long on currencies etc at the moment.
The following levels are levels I'm aiming to get some shorts in play if everything lines up or as close to these levels as possible:
1. AU - 0.8670 - 0.8750
2. AJ - 79.80 - 80.40
3. EU - now up to 1.2400
4. EJ - 113.15 - 114
5. GU - Now
6. GJ - Now - 137.
7. UJ - 91.80-92.10
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Jun 16, 2010 3:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Keep your head up, you'll be back in no time. My opinion is that it's a mixture of bad markets (you know they're bad since that flash crash) with bad attitude (rushing things, even though you managed to trade a lot more in the beginning, but conditions change and we need to adapt).
Here's what I'm seeing. I know you don't like USDX (I think you said it one time in the beginning, I might be mistaking), but it's useful sometimes.
Minor double bottom on H1 with divergence, but not a long way to run (see picture). I for one am looking for a retrace...
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Thanks, I dont mind USDX...I used to follow it but because it's another broker I have to have I just kinda stopped looking at it...that definitely looks good for a reversal up to your marked area...what broker do you use to watch it? |
Jun 16, 2010 3:56am
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Gotta go out for next few hours so have moved SL to BE on GU as FTA hit...wanna see if it will run. Will add a pending short below 1.4750 too
Would have added another YM short but presume contract has expired.
Oil TP set @76.10, YM @ 10315 and stops moved to BE on EU and EJ shorts.
these are all about 1% positions and normally I wouldnt move to BE so soon on some but being out I'm banking on the weakness continuing and dont want there to be a turnaround in equity markets whilst I'm out.
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Jun 16, 2010 3:59am
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Anyone see this which I mentioned yesterday...I took it on demo only...55 pips up now.
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Jun 16, 2010 6:43am
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Well we've had a reaction on equity markets and oil at the resistance areas...question is can we get some follow through or is it just a pause before gathering momentum to break higher...
Good GBP employments news (damn) caused GBP to rise thus my GU trade got stopped out @ BE+1
Why oh why didn't I take the E/NZD trade on real account...its; formed a 4HR BEOB now too following the touch trade...that was a good touch trade setup...PPZ, BRN, TL and fibs...what more could you ask for!
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Jun 16, 2010 7:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Invitation remains valid.
edit: ogeid beat me to it. |
yeah that would be a great tool to have as I have 3 different brokers! |
Jun 16, 2010 7:31am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
have you considered opening a micro account on oanda and trading LIVE rather than the demo account?
that way, pscyhologically you have the feeling of winning and losses dont hurt much.
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Yeah, to be honest I would normally have taken that trade without thinking, but for some unknown reason probably lack of confidence at the moment as results not as good I gave it a pass...as touch trades are the riskiest of the types of trades I take. I don't normally demo trades but am doing some testing for someone on a trade copier so just entered it on there...I should have taken it on live Oanda account and just risked very little....well actually I should have just taken it like normal as its within my rules and was actually a very good touch trade setup...lots of confluence |
Jun 16, 2010 7:54am
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Getting some movement now on equities and xxx/usd + xxx/usd have added another ere/u short and a g/u short....hard to know where else technicaly to add entries without just entering blind.
If being aggressive and working on assumption that dow and other equities were going to fall together with oil...then could have just chosen some pairs (xxx/jpy fall faster when dow falls)and chosen a set account risk amount and just sold them i.e.want to risk 6% of account on xxx/jpy +xxx/usd shorts and spread it across some pairs with stops above recent daily highs.
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Jun 16, 2010 8:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm going to write it here, maybe someone else is interested. The only negative aspect of this setup is that you have to manually switch between accounts, but all the accounts will be on one platform, you don't have to switch between platforms.
[list=1][*]IF you don't already have an MT4 account with the broker, you have to download and install the platform from that broker. (if you do, you can skip it).[*]Create the MT4 account in the installed platform and keep all the details. (account no, master and investor password)[*]Go to the "config"...
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Awesome, thanks I'll do this tonight |
Jun 16, 2010 8:24am
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CJ daily pin trade hit SL earlier for a 1.92% loss. I closed G/AUd early as GBP is clearly stronger than AUD today and its not going howI expected it to go...-1.43%, though as I soon as I closed it it bounced down again lol.
Currently short GU,EU,EJ Oil and dow futures and long EC...have a pending GU short @ 1.4740
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Jun 16, 2010 8:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Area of interest?
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Definitely!
Took profits on all my shorts...don't want to be caught out by the retracement bus going into US open. Have YMO short open and ECAd long and that's it. |
Jun 16, 2010 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
This one needs to go somewhere soon from 1.48 TL at 1.5 BRN
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Price is trapped between 1.4750 and 1.4800 - which is a 50% fib and PPZ area...much will depend on equity markets as highlighted previously.
I'm not a fan of longs at the moment just because of the amount of resistance on YMMO...firstly @ 10370 and then a bigger area @10430-40 area. Plus the divergence on GU 4HR is putting me off longs too. |
Jun 16, 2010 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj, look at AU @ 86.. maybe a possible short?
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Why? |
Jun 16, 2010 10:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
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Ahhh the power of people drawing TL's differently lol |
Jun 16, 2010 12:31pm
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Okay let's give this a go...YMUO @ 10350 resistance area with divergence (1HR)...AU near 61 fiband PPZ and divergence, EU @ PPZ area, GJ near PPz and 50 fib area, UJ bouncing of broken TL on 1HR
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Jun 16, 2010 2:25pm
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Bailed out for tiny profit as although a 1HR pin bar formed on dow it retraced quickly.
Took gold touch trade long though...got in very late really.
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Jun 16, 2010 3:24pm
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.
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Jun 16, 2010 4:48pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
.
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Regretting cutting my G/AUd daily pin trade earlier when price went above left eye...it should go to the obvious TP now...damn sometimes I'm too advanced for my own good lol!
GU second order triggered |
Jun 16, 2010 5:02pm
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Last pending trade before bed...gold...1%...confluence of TL's and fibs...I;ve been looking for a good long entry to get in with the trend for a while.
Rest of week is gonna be interesting...dow cant hold above 10350 for long and majors are all at or near strong daily PPZ levels...I'd really like a sell of to happen like we used to get i.e. dow hangs around resistance falls sharply taking xxx.jpy with it having made PA to give us the signal before hand. I want those days back...last time it happened I made 37% in one day! Thursdays are normally good sell off days too. Here's hoping!
Last edited by lovejoy80, Jun 17, 2010 1:33am
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Jun 17, 2010 1:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Regretting cutting my G/AUd daily pin trade earlier when price went above left eye...it should go to the obvious TP now...damn sometimes I'm too advanced for my own good lol!
GU second order triggered
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That's more like it... GU trades hit TP to the pip and is now hovering on the 50% fib...will we bounce ro break down...not sure depends how YMUO reacts to its rising TL.
Gold pending order not hit
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Jun 17, 2010 2:40am
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pending trades...
Normally I wouldn't have exited my GU trades...I would have just moved stop down but as overnight I used a TP. Still need to get into a trade manger...just need to demo it a bit more ...
I do have some small GU and GJ trades open on Oanda ...these were speculative positions with no fixed SL.
Remember I was saying about taking some trades on demo....ie. what I've done is if I think dow is going to move down loading up[ on most of the major xxx/usd and xxx/jpy and leaving them until proven wrong technically i.e. dow closing above resistance. Well using fixed 1.0 lots on a ?50k account has meant that account is up nearly 25% in three days! Obviously I've not taken risk management into account in that I have not used stops (although I know the areas I would close the trades at) and more importantly I have not calculated maximum equity @ risk in the event all the trades got stopped out...but it's an interesting way of trading that I've seen a fair few people implement recently i.e. using fixed lot sizes rather than lot sizes calculated on exact account risk. It's obviously not for the faint hearted as if you got it wrong you'd be down a a fair bit...but on the basis that I am right a lot more than I am wrong in my overall analysis it's an approach I am going to start implementing on small scale on Oanda.
I feel it works well in the current environment where we have not had many clear PA driven trades this week but currencies have moved in line with dow movements and thus when dow approaches resistance just sell a basket of currencies. Thus I'll start doing this making sure that my mental stops on all pairs would not put my account at risk more than 2% cumulatively. It wont be something that I'll do everyday...especially if we have clearer trade setups in accordance with my normal trade criteria.
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Jun 17, 2010 3:10am
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.
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Jun 17, 2010 3:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
why the sell on ey there? its a strong resistance line and as far as i can see h1 tl has not been broken.
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TL has broken and we have a new falling TL and entered trade at break of recent 1HR cluster...it's the way I play intraday trends...breaks of support with SL above recent cluster...as per the Peaks and Valleys thread.
If you catch a trend on 1HR / 4HR and play each break of support / resistance clusters then you make big bucks...actually doing this on any time frame works. Obviously if the trend reverses or if you are wrong about the trend you get stopped out...but the key is getting the initial trend entry right then entering on further breaks is psychologically easy as you've already got open profit to play with.
When the markets are trending well intraday...trades like this have really helped my account...the bulk of my 100% gain weeks were due to P&V trading.
Not looking good this time...and it highlights that it can be aggressive as you can get some false 'breakouts' but as long as you are in good trend normally you are ok...could be false breakouts this time and pin bar forming on1HR...if so I'll get out of my trades. |
Jun 17, 2010 4:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Long UCh anyone? At important area, but that's one big BEOB.
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I would have taken a touch trade short if I'd seen a retest of that TL. I wouldn't be going against that BEOB myself. |
Jun 17, 2010 4:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Problem is (or what I see) is that it's all uphill from here...
Breakout and retest.
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...should have maybe cut when pin bars formed...fxpro crashed on me lots of times this morning so missed most of it...keeps crashing when I try and look at my indicators on my chart hmmmm.
Thats the problem when you have 2 different trading methods going against each other...PA saying go long...and equities if looking at trend, but P&V saying go short and if looking at equities in more depth...there is more room to go south than go against the resistance above.
In retrosepct I should have taken profit when YMUO couldn't break its support and TL...I was 2.5% up across those 4 trades at one point.
This is the reason I wouldn't be buying right now... |
Jun 17, 2010 5:00am
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Some current charts of interest.
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Jun 17, 2010 5:14am
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more...
Would take the BUOB on GU but going right into a PPZ.
There was a touch trade opportunity though @ 50/61 fibs and TL...I got caught with the false breakout and trend on 1HR was down....got burnt.
Plan to trade the range on GJ
same with EJ...TL resistance to close to BUOB...but will play with tight SL.
Will play UC BEOB too...could be the catalyst to a breakout.
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Jun 17, 2010 5:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Was this not obvious ? 1.4 tons of resistance and a beautiful pin. What a miss |
I dont watch that pair...but wow it is very good. CHF pairs all had Pa for shorts on 1HR and 4Hr...UCHF has 4HR BEOB but too much trouble below for me but the 1HR Pa would have been good. |
Jun 17, 2010 5:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Potential EU scenario based on daily falling TL
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I have that too...it's also a 50% fib retracement from May 10th swing.
If dow is @ 10430 when this happens even better |
Jun 17, 2010 5:46am
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Anyone have any ideas why, whenever I try and look at the current indicators on any of my charts FxPro crashes..works fine apart form this...bit odd
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Jun 17, 2010 5:53am
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Only trade I'm in...2% at risk...pending short is below the recent lows...i.e. a breakout and also on my Alpari the 4H close in 10 mins will likely be a BEOB too so its essentially playing that as well.
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Jun 17, 2010 5:57am
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A note on results since May20th (new account date)... I end my trading weeks on Wednesdays nowand the weekly gain /loss is as follows :
26th May +10.17%
2nd June +8.34%
9th June 0 (holiday)
16th June +8.33%
This does include a cash injection form another venture...this week otherwise this week would have been a small loss. I'm mesuring total balance gain as that's the most important thing for me. Without the cash injection the last week would have been -5.42% so plenty to do in terms of improvement for this week...in fact that was my first trading week loss for a very long time.
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Jun 17, 2010 6:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Every time you press Ctrl+I, the platform closes?
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It crashes i.e. stops responding and I have to manually close via good old cntrl+alt+delete
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Jun 17, 2010 6:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
It crashes i.e. stops responding and I have to manually close via good old cntrl+alt+delete
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my trades still update themselves...but I cant do anything ...whenever I click on a chart...try and enter a trade or do anything it just beeps. |
Jun 17, 2010 6:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What did you change lately? Unchange it and see if it works.
OR
Open a new chart window with no indicators attached and open the Indicator Window, see if it does the same. Then start adding the indicators one by one, testing to see which one crashes your MT4.
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Not changed anything.
I tried that but as soon as I add an indicator e.g. RSI and the go to open the indicator window it crashes again. Might have to jsut save my profiles and reinstall FxPro |
Jun 17, 2010 7:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Looking at this one, if it can break out soon. Not leaving a pending order, so if it doesn't breakout soon, it doesn't bump against the rising TL.
Attachment 492677 |
Add some fibs, PPZ and another TL and you can see that 0.8380 was a great area for a touch trade short. |
Jun 17, 2010 8:40am
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Another touch trade opportunity...I was waiting for it to get a little higher...two sets of fibs confluence and a PPZ zone.
i've got small positions short on AU, EU, EJ and AJ...I'm looking for a reversal and will add to these positions if Dow / S&P break their rising TL's / PPZ areas and I'll cut if dow /S&P start to rise back up through these areas.
If there wasnt the strong confluence of resistance above the equities I'd be avidly buying with the trend.
Frustrating my two attempts at getting into gold longs were missed by few pips, fuirst @ 1216 and second @ 1225...lookes like another test of recent highs now. At least I can say I got the analysis right just the execution slightly out.
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Jun 17, 2010 10:12am
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EUR is incredibly strong...'someone' wants EUR to keep rising
Looks like a short term bottom and possible a trend reversal on 4HR ECAD
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Jun 17, 2010 10:24am
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Come on dow and S&P give me some Thursday loving and drop like a stone would ya! Poo pjilly data and a concerning unemployment data are weighing on US equities...you can stage an economic recovery if unemployment is still rising!
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Jun 17, 2010 10:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Eurcad
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What are all these lines and comments from? |
Jun 17, 2010 10:41am
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Update:
UC BEOB got stopped out but I took the pin anyway and stop @ BE now...am short AJ,GJ, GU, EU, EJ and YMUO...added a couple of proper positions to my small basket positions earlier
i'm about 4% account size up at the moment and if we can get some real momentum behind the equity markets I could bag a few % more. Come everyone sell and help its on it way!
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Jun 17, 2010 10:44am
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If this cant break I'll take profit...if it does I'm fully loaded and ready to pull the trigger.
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Jun 17, 2010 11:00am
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This is the tough moment in trading...sitting at support...it's hovering aruond there...is it hovering to build up momentum before another leg down or will it bounce...do I take all profit now or wait and give it some time...hmmmm answers on a postcard lol!
Ym has broken its 4HR TL @ 10300...is it a false Bout or will it continue...the strength of the down bars suggest further moves down but as we all know the dow can retrace hard in a split moment.
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Jun 17, 2010 11:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
This is the tough moment in trading...sitting at support...it's hovering aruond there...is it hovering to build up momentum before another leg down or will it bounce...do I take all profit now or wait and give it some time...hmmmm answers on a postcard lol!
Ym has broken its 4HR TL @ 10300...is it a false Bout or will it continue...the strength of the down bars suggest further moves down but as we all know the dow can retrace hard in a split moment.
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Ok...I took all profit. If I hadnt taken a full bar loss on UC BEOB trade earlier and not taken any losses at all on my earlier 'basket' shorts then I'd be about 8% up for today... instead I'm just under BE. |
Jun 17, 2010 11:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Bleh, was waiting for this one, but got distracted by other trades. Would of just been bound for demo, but still. Always get too easily distracted. You think this would of been good enough lj? Erm, feel free to answer whenever. Feel bad all these posts, probably just distracting you.
Attachment 492811 |
I didnt see the TL but add a fib from the whole swing and you'll see you have BRN, TL, 61 fib and PPZ...pull the trigger every time on confluence like that. I missed it too. |
Jun 17, 2010 11:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Noticed the fib too. Not sure why I wasn't in love with it. I guess I need more practice. Thanks
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Being confident enough to pull the trigger comes with lots and lots of practice...you then 'know' what are great setups...If you try to make it as mechanical as possible i.e.PPZ, and fibs as confluence then pull the trigger 1 lot...if more confluence e.g. TL or BRN or both then trade 2 lots. Just an example...but that's how I practiced on backtest on 4HR... before forward testing on small live to where I am now where I take them routinely ... well when I spot them,. Of course managing stops and exits are the tricky part... |
Jun 17, 2010 11:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
I cant make the trendline either lovejoy You also have fxpro right?
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Yeah, no TL on fxpro...but even without that...RN, a very clear PPZ and 61fib is more than enough to take that trade. |
Jun 17, 2010 11:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
This is how I see it too, but if this H4 turns into a PB then it's the other way around. And it would fall in place with the S&P forecast of going to 1140-1150.
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Yes it all depends on the close, TL intercepts @ 91 round number too... |
Jun 17, 2010 11:54am
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took profit earlier on UC long...got out all on xxx/usd and xxx/jpy shorts at the right time! Now we have a retest of breakout so gone long and pending short on 1HR EU BEOB with divergence at swing high. Order below the support level below it.
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Jun 17, 2010 12:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Hope you are right. I studied P and V so much you would not even believe it. I still am not very confident in it, even though its done me pretty well so far. Still, I have 1 bad day, and I know its part of the game, but I for some reason still start to question things. Sort of get the sense that I wasn't meant to be a trader, because every profit I make, is just so dang tough lol.
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Another touch trade opportunity...though I probably would have got stopped out on this initially with the follow through and then got in again on the way down.
P&V trading can makes your account grow a lot when you get good trends intraday. It's pretty straightforward method...just identifying the first position i.e. the start of the swing is key. Nasir has a lot of posts over there which are worth printing out and looking at. |
Jun 17, 2010 12:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
How do you make your pics sharp man? How do you attach them? Because I hate the way they're displaying...
Jing takes the pictures crisp and clear but when I attach them here (via Attachments button) it's just plain wrong...
Do you save them on your computer and add them from your computer, or do you paste their URL?
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I just save pic straight from Mt4 onto computer and attach the image. |
Jun 17, 2010 12:40pm
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triple top on gold and 15 min divergence...the sold again on the 5min pin bar.
sold oil on break of TL
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Jun 17, 2010 3:03pm
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got stopped out at BE on 5min gold pin...should have left it to run further TBH. Still have remaining trade based on tri[[le top and 15 min divergence.
UCAD got stropped out...surprised by that.
YM hit former TL and rebounded lower which is a good sign for further short action...hopefully can now break through the various support levels below.
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Jun 17, 2010 3:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
By the way Lovejoy i wanna thank you!.
Because by following your journal has really made me a better trader with the confluence with the fibs and ppz it is incredible.
I will keep continue myself for this year still demo and a little micro account what is growing and at the end of the year i go live. And start a bigger acount and see if i can keep up making it live i will also hold positions longer according macro fundamentals and add on the possitions in the way.
Just wanna say thanks this journal is really helping me |
No worries...glad people find the thread useful. |
Jun 17, 2010 4:27pm
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Looks like have to wait another day for a dow sell off...will it just hurry up and get to 10430 area and reverse hard please!
I've lost money everyday this week...that has not happened in over 6 months!! I'm not sure what is happening though, I need to concentrate more I know that and I've mis managed a few trades this week but nothing drastic (well maybe this morning was pretty poor) . Have missed a fair few touch trades but again nothing big and I've calmed down my trading style in terms of taking about 40-60 trades per week instead of 150...ever since the flash crash I do feel the market has been pretty damn hard to trade....and whenever I re-read my journal I dont see anything I'm doing different, no light bulb moments or anything.
Maybe I've been waiting too much for a dow reversal this week and should also be playng the trends and keeping it simple (look @ EU 4HR its in a nice channel and would have been easy to play that all week...but dont think I've gone long EU once this week lol!) my win rate has been low this week which I dont like. For me confidence comes with being right more often than not in my overall market analysis. Next week I'll definitely try and keep it simple and trade what I see not what I expect and try and second guess a to or bottom.
Once it becomes clearer what dow will do when it gets to the 10430-50 heavy confluence area that will help give a better direction on the majors...a lot of pairs are at or so close to heavy PPZ areas so I'm really just waiting until we get there to really load up (without over leveraging).
Not gonna look at daily charts...I'm done until tomorrow now...have got my small xxx.jpy shorts open with SL's set above the highs and short gold and oil....SL's moved to BE on gold but left the same on oil. no TP's set...will leave and re asses tomorrow morning if they are still open.
As an aside I've had the Hayward (BP) congress grilling on all afternoon. I dont understand the US system and why they do that...I've watched goldman chap on it and others during the GFC and they are so well briefed by lawyers that they never answer any of the questions and just say the minimum possible. It all seems just like an opera show most of the time and has no point to it...I might be missing something...but all seems a bit odd to me as I'm just don't see what it achieves.
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Jun 17, 2010 4:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Anyone knows a fair bit of excel and is willing to give a hand? Especially database functions? (DSum, DCount and such)
I can't find an easy solution and it's so frustrating...
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Sorry...as you can probably guess I'm not that great with IT... I don't even have excel on my new computer! |
Jun 18, 2010 2:22am
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Break and retest...though I got a spread of 10!!!...Outrageous!...can we finally break through the 4HR support level below...
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Jun 18, 2010 2:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
So you got the new computer. What specs? Are you enjoying it? |
yeah it runs like a dream. Cost became a big issue so decided to just get a cmputer with a hlaf decent motherboard with minimum stuff on it so I can upgrade later on. I aim to get a really powerful setup next year when I move house. Also got a LG Full HD 22" wide screen monitor. Motherboard is Gigabyte GA-H55M-S2H with intel i3 530 2.93 ghz. 1GB DDR3 ram, 250gb HDD etc. Thus using the inbuilt graphics of the i3 at the moment and everything works fine. Got it all including monitor for just over ?300 as got a deal from a mate.
One thing I dont get is why I can only connect 2 monitors to it. the inbuilt graphic ports has HD, DVI and VGA and yet you can only use 2 of the 3 ...why is that? |
Jun 18, 2010 3:12am
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Bearish signs on GU...
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Jun 18, 2010 3:13am
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small risk as only a 1HR PPZ
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Jun 18, 2010 3:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Another touch trade opportunity...though I probably would have got stopped out on this initially with the follow through and then got in again on the way down.
P&V trading can makes your account grow a lot when you get good trends intraday. It's pretty straightforward method...just identifying the first position i.e. the start of the swing is key. Nasir has a lot of posts over there which are worth printing out and looking at.
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It went to exactly where you'd expect it to go...would have been a good %R result on this.
As I said I would have got stopped out first time but after it closed below the PPZ and 61 fib I would have reentered
Touch trades are not for the faint hearted...but they can result in some very good %R wins...and even lead to full blown reversals and a starting point for P&V trades.
If you were particularly aggressive could have also taken the pin bar that formed |
Jun 18, 2010 3:23am
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winding up...
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Jun 18, 2010 3:27am
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My TP on Gold...
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Jun 18, 2010 4:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
.
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I was looking for PA on lower TF...didn't get it..I'm already exposed to GU shorts from slightly lower down (swing type trades) |
Jun 18, 2010 4:32am
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Exited E/A @ BE...it hit FTA and reversed and I just didn't like the 10 pip spread on FxPro. Exited Gold as I think it will test highs again so I'll get back in.
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Jun 18, 2010 4:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Exited E/A @ BE...it hit FTA and reversed and I just didn't like the 10 pip spread on FxPro. Exited Gold as I think it will test highs again so I'll get back in.
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Positive UK news = EG hit SL.
Currently have my basked of swing trades and long UC + short Oil.
Not much news around but its quadruple witchhunting day or something whatever that means and a Friday so maybe we'll get some volatility. |
Jun 18, 2010 5:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Stopped out on BE.
and i was expecting it cause dow still dint hit 10,500.
I think stars are getting lined up for sell off's.
.
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I agree...been waiting impatiently (lol) for everything to line up...had some false starts and scalped a few pips here and there on mini dow falls especially yesterday afternoon...otherwise I've been too impatient this week and should have just played the trend until we get to the confluenced areas |
Jun 18, 2010 5:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Stopped out on BE.
and i was expecting it cause dow still dint hit 10,500.
I think stars are getting lined up for sell off's.
.
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I've had a 1% go on close of 4HR bar... |
Jun 18, 2010 5:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
So here is a question for everyone.
If Dow drops today from 10,500.
What pair you think will drop the most?? give reason too.
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AUD / JPY ... commodity currencies are sold off the most when risk appetite decreases...and jpy strengthens hard against usd thus AJ or CJ are the to most obvious plays...AJ has a higher interest yield than CAD thus when risk is 'off the table' the higher interest currencies (the carry trade) and commodities are sold the hardest. |
Jun 18, 2010 6:42am
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Equity markets turning south (apart from FTSE)...in particular Dax is heading down quite hard...The same thing happened yesterday morning before we rose harder than the fall before falling again in US session.
I've exited most of my basket shorts for profit and exited all of GU touch trade short too and apart from a few positions together with UC long I'm on sidelines until US session to see what volatility we get.
Exited oil as approaching obvious PPZ area..i'd expect a bounce from there and I'll sell again if it does.
Same with gold...I'll sell another approach to test highs.
UJ is looking like it wants to convincingly break 90.50 area later.
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Jun 18, 2010 7:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Pretty strong 1hr PA on g/u. I think we should move down to 1.4567 at least, no? What do you think?
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I dont have anything?
Wow gold and silver rising.
Gotta be careful this afternoon...friday, quadruple witching (lol), world cup (germany and Us playing this afternoon) = low liquidity |
Jun 18, 2010 7:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Yes i think it's AJ, but my reasons are technical.
I don't have knowledge of this stuff but I have started working on it and i will get my hands on "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis" (book)
when i'll find some time.
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What's your technical reason? here is my 4H AJ chart...if technicals and fundamentals line up then than only be a good thing!
I'll check out that book, I only know the basics but would like to learn more. |
Jun 18, 2010 7:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Be careful with CT's without Divg.
Just IMO.
P.s: Hey Jlr can you please post some of your PV trades charts. I wanna know how it worked out with you for my research.
Thanks.
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I agree...divergence is such a powerful tool IMO if used correctly...a lot of people seem to dismiss it for some reason. |
Jun 18, 2010 9:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
There many out there but i think the best and latest one is of "Ashraf Laidi".
All this fundies stuff is drives me crazy.
But i think these intermarket studies are important. I am also thinking about starting my studies again and get an Economics degree.
I just started running around this stuff for two days but i think that
[b]in a state of risk appetite people strive for higher returns like carry trades so AJ...
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Yep that's correct.
The carry trade isn't really back on like it used to be though...I mean that still holds to a certain extent...but we are till in the aftermath of the GFC and the carry trade just doesn't work like it use to...but it will come back when the markets return to complete normality and currencies rise and fall based on their own economic outlooks.
CHF used to be a safe haven play too...but not at the moment.
I considered doing economics degree too or at least a course...but I reckon there are only a few things that you need to know in terms of what fundamentals affect currencies and how they all make up the big macroeconomic picture. Unemployment, budget deficit, inflation, retail sales, manufacturing, interest rates, GDP...its not much more than that and knowing the specifics about an individual economy...i.e. what they export / import etc. and what cuases economic growth.
But knowing all of those things is really only for longer term trading...IMO technical analysis is the best method for short term trading with just an awareness of the news releases and what they mean etc. |
Jun 18, 2010 9:50am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
GA??
Not my pair but i checked the chart.
If you are trading setups like these you should be a millionaire by now.
Looks good for an initial burst of 80 pips.
Ok thanks and keep updating me.
. |
G/AUD? Break of 1.7? |
Jun 18, 2010 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Gold is a hedge against inflation. JPY and USD are considered safe heavens because in tough economic times, they don't need to rely on other countries to borrow money. Read an article yesterday illustrating golds rapid up move, and showed it a long side the dow. Basically moved hand in hand. So I think it should be classified a little differently, instead of just a safe haven.
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Yep missed out the inflation hedge part. However, when dow goes down you'd expect gold to go up wouldn't you... |
Jun 18, 2010 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Thanks Guys.
So there trick is to Analise beforehand that when conditions turn sides from Risk Aversion to Risk Apatite and vice versa.
and then pick the instruments realitive to situation.
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That's the way it's been through th GFX....it's wither risk on or risk off so either buy USD / JPY or sell regardless of each individual countries economic outlook. Things have started to settle down and more normal fundamentals are coming into play....the EUR drop against other every other country for example...but then this caused wide spread fear and we have USD and JPY buying again. In a more normal environment it's less black and white in terms of risk on / risk off as individual economic outlook's come into play. But I'm very far from being an expert...it's just how I view things...hopefully its largely correct! |
Jun 18, 2010 10:04am
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Whilst talking about Gold...i've been looking at gold charts and gold has to be one of the most trendiest instruments out there. From my experience on Gold it just feels and looks like you get some really good long term and intraday trends with some very distinctive patterns and PPZ areas that are easy to trade off. I look at charts from monthly down to hourly and it looks beautiful (lol)..think I've been missing a trick on gold. One of my aims going forward will be to pay more attention to gold and try and play the trends P&V style @ Nasir...isn't today option expiry day ( I know zero about options)
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Jun 18, 2010 10:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Really no idea lol. Just basically read all of that stuff I had posted. Don't have a deep understanding unfortunately. I'd think gold would probably sell off too though, if the dow started to tank hard. Has happened before.. hmm. Looking back at that flash crash, gold did in fact tank too. Not nearly as bad as everything else though. |
Well someone pointed out to me that gold should rise when dow gets sold off...safe haven link is pretty strong...but back in May 13th or 14th or near then gold got sold hard when dow was sold too which doesn't make sense....unless there another 'force' at work. |
Jun 18, 2010 10:19am
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Silver broke the daily PPZ line and is now @ a 4HR (and daily) minor PPZ...play a break or...which Id prefer...play the retracement. Being cautios as its Friday and my main focus is dow and majors this afternoon...one more leg up on dow before a sell off?? AJ and AU near top of range with divergence too...
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Jun 18, 2010 10:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I would not recommend playing PV's on gold i'd rather suggest taking pullbacks.
Option expiry??
I don't know but just look at the chart LJ. They never let it hit 1.7000 and of course somebody putting big money behind the longs here.
In a downtrend like this it does't make so much sense unless it's some thing like options. So if it's expiry date today they won't protect it anymore.
Did you people noticed what's happening on this thread for the last two pages. |
yeah that's what I meant...if its option expiry today then all those buy orders will disappear and it should drop like a stone...well that's the theory...certainly worth a sell order below 1.7000.
I dont know enough about options to know when they expire when they atart etc etc... Last time it touched 1.7 was 31st May |
Jun 18, 2010 10:39am
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Been wondering why my ftse and dax futures haven't moved for the last few hours...kept thinking cant believe they are moving so little... lol
Look at oil...1HR falling TL and PPZ ...if it wasnt for the strength of the bullish bar that would be worth a touch trade. |
Jun 18, 2010 10:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I would not recommend playing PV's on gold i'd rather suggest taking pullbacks.
Option expiry??
I don't know but just look at the chart LJ. They never let it hit 1.7000 and of course somebody putting big money behind the longs here.
In a downtrend like this it does't make so much sense unless it's some thing like options. So if it's expiry date today they won't protect it anymore.
Did you people noticed what's happening on this thread for the last two pages. |
No ??? |
Jun 18, 2010 11:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
yeah that's what I meant...if its option expiry today then all those buy orders will disappear and it should drop like a stone...well that's the theory...certainly worth a sell order below 1.7000.
I dont know enough about options to know when they expire when they atart etc etc... Last time it touched 1.7 was 31st May
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Our crystal balls were correct! My pending order was hit (only 1% at risk). |
Jun 18, 2010 11:15am
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Short YMUO, and AJ plus AU at the moment.
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Jun 18, 2010 11:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Think this play is good enough? Has 50/61 to go a long with it, and 4 hr div. Not really in love with the s/r tho.
Attachment 493557 |
I dont trade CHf...we have history lol!
But RN, PPz, TL and fibs ...good confluence ...onlt thing I dont like is the strength of the move down to that area and the fact its Friday. |
Jun 18, 2010 11:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
we've all just turned into fudies. lol
and almost everyone ends his post with I don't know, I am not sure etc,.....lol
No???
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Jun 18, 2010 11:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Anyone watching US - Slovenia? Is this game rigged? lol horrible
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Yeah got it on in background...good game to watch. Referee in this game and germany game have been very poor. Actually wanted Germany to win...on the basis that hopefully England will win group sure dont want to play Germany in second round! |
Jun 20, 2010 6:09pm
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Decided to close some of my xxx/jpy basket shorts on fridayas felt I was over exposed if we had a gap up...which we did so that was the right decision. Unfortunately I got stung for a few % on gap ups in YMUO and Gold.
Annoyingly one of he shorts I closed was G/AUD...it gapped down over 100 pips!
Things are unusually volatile at New Zealand open...GJ ranged 100 pips in the first hour! I have a UC long, EU and GJ short open and will leave as is until tomorrow morning now.
Looking forward to getting back into the groove and smashing the market for lots of pips this week!
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Jun 20, 2010 7:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Yeah really annoying. Spent about 8 hours this weekend drawing up plays, and now most of them are invalidated.
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I always do my analysis Monday morning for that very reason now!
We are in the zone of heavy confluence on YMUO and EU has had a reaction at its confluenced area too.
Personally I am heavily bearish on YMUO until 10650 at the very highest point with a more realistic expected high of 10510-30 (though I'd prefer not to reach either of these highs obviously) and I'm heavily bearish EU from 1.2465 to 1.2570...we've hit the lower number and reversed already...though YMUO has not gone with it so I'd expect a bounce back up (hopefully so I can load up)....this will form the basis of my trading for the week...selling into strength on YMUO and EU in particular whilst watching for good short setups on the other majors. |
Jun 21, 2010 2:22am
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double top with divergence = sell...BE @ FTA.
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Jun 21, 2010 4:24am
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Equity markets ... specifically FTSE and Dax futures are looking to close the Sunday gap taking EU and GU with them...I'm in EU...only small positions.
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Jun 21, 2010 4:42am
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I spoke a while back about demoing a new trading approach to add to my current trading methods. It's not a new method it's just a new way of trading an existing method. It's what I'm calling basket trading i.e. picking a basket of currencies where you expect them all to weaken for a specific reason.
my main focus will be on the mini-dow and mini-S&P futures and trading xxx/usd plus xxx/jpy when I expect a material rise or fall in the equity futures with the best trades being when xxx/usd + xxx/jpy are also at support / resistance levels too.
To a lesser extent I'll also use dax and ftse futures to trade GBP and EUR.
To an even lesser extent I'll also use gold and oil as a guide to currency movements and lastly I'll also occasionally trade majors against each other e.g. if i'm expecting a weak EUR across the board due to technical / fundamental reasons then I will pick a basket of EUR/xxx to short etc.
In terms of risk management I'll use either:
1) fixed lot sizes based on a pre-determined average expected stop distance (i.e. price wouldn't average need to travel this far in order for my reasoning for the trade to be proved incorrect).
3) if there exist more specific technical setups on the currencies in addition to the equities etc then I'll base risk and stops on these setups.
In terms of risk management, I'll trial this trading approach using Oanda and cumulative combined 1% at risk to start with for a trial period. I would expect this to increase to 5-8% if all goes to plan and the trial period is successful. As this type of trading is based on specific confluence factors I'd expect a high win rate - in the region of 80%.
I am also working on developing my knowledge in other areas (I firmly believe being a trade is an ongoing never ending learning experience) in particular learning about VSA, a different approach to fibs and I also want to give some thoughts to Ronald Raygun's Hi-Lo Trader EA which seems very interesting...in fact I want to gradually try and bring some EA's into my asrsenal. I believe that EA's if used correctly can make large returns in a short timeframe...I think the key is knowing in what market conditions a specific EA should be used. Ia slo think some of my existing trading methods can be automated e.g. P&V trading should be relatively straightforward to automate surely? I'm also working on a couple of other projects too so havea very very busy 6-7 months ahead of me but hopefully this will help to add viable alternative trading methods into my toolbox.
In the meantime I could do with getting my account back on track and giving and having a few decent spurts of growth. I spent some time going through my journal and it's clear to me that there is a distinct lack of high quality setups at the moment. PA setups have decreased and the reliability of PA has also decreased since the flash crash and it's been harder to get runners.
The vix is showing volatility decreasing and once we get some clear direction on equity markets at the current confluenced area I hope for some better trading conditions.
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Jun 21, 2010 4:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trndsurfer
the gap has already been closed then bounce at the previous high does that not invalidate the gap trade?
I went short nu just missed TP 7070 due to spread stopped out at BE, got a entry order long EA at 1.4 tp 1,4175
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Not on my charts they haven't...
Whats the reasoning behind the EA long trade? |
Jun 21, 2010 4:58am
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I'll take this for 2% if it closes as it is. FTA is very close, I'll move SL down to few pips above left eye if it reaches this area...lets see if it can break the TL and 1.4750 area.
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Jun 21, 2010 5:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Not on my charts they haven't...
Whats the reasoning behind the EA long trade?
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If trading lower timeframes i.e. 5-15min you could have grabbed some pips on EG shorts...there was a high chance that FTSE would bounce @ PPZ and RN of 5300 which would whereas no support on Dax thus you would expect GBP to strengthen against EUR...which it did. Pretty simple eh?? |
Jun 21, 2010 5:22am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
UJ
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Perfect! See what I mean about the best IB setups are the ones where price has really wound up and breaks hard and doesnt come back to your entry...these are the ones that really grow your account. This setup is exactly why you gotta have part of your position without a fixed TP...if manual then trade it as your charts tell you...if automated then trailing SL etc.
The entry was perfect too...just above those bars to the left...so you know that it is a proper breakout of the whole area.
It's @ a tough area to break now...but if it does... |
Jun 21, 2010 5:57am
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Booked some profit no original EU short position and added another one ...hopefully a confirmed break of the 1HR TL. A bit of P&V trading here.
I would expect EU shorts to be good until Dax closed its Sunday gap....it's got another 70 pips to go so plenty of space for EU to fall...hopefully it'll drop without any retracements to that level.
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Jun 21, 2010 6:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
If trading lower timeframes i.e. 5-15min you could have grabbed some pips on EG shorts...there was a high chance that FTSE would bounce @ PPZ and RN of 5300 which would whereas no support on Dax thus you would expect GBP to strengthen against EUR...which it did. Pretty simple eh??
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FTSE still cant break its 5260 support area = EG continues to fall...a low risk 20 pips was available there so far.
This is the essence of my basket trading...though on a much smaller time scale and slightly over simplified. |
Jun 21, 2010 7:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What do we do with this?
I managed to pull one out of the hat. I took the H4 GU PB, entered on M15 double IB with 20p SL. It felt nice to have a 1+R, it seemed like ages since one of those happened. Still holding half of position.
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nice, I'm in the 4HR GU Pb too. I don't see a double IB on my chart but there was a great 15min pin bar off the falling TL. |
Jun 21, 2010 7:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
I am in this too. Not really convinced. It looks like a normal retrace to TL
What is your TP 1.4760 ?
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My SL is just above left eye now as we hit FTA, next target is 4HR TL at which I'll move to BE (if we get there of course!) and then the area you mentioned...if we get there though we've then broken out of the wedge we are in so I'd expect further falls...how about to 1.4500 and bottom of daily channel? lol. |
Jun 21, 2010 8:27am
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Bit annoyed with my lack of patience this morning...I've been playing EU 15min chart and have had entries @ 1.2458 (x3), 1.2443, 1.2428, 1.2397 (x2),1.2397. Got stopped out by moving SL to close a while ago ona ll but the last trade. Made 1% on these entries but I should still be holding all of them as my charts have not told me anything to persuade me that my analysis that EU is going down on 15min chart is anything but correct.
See GU is heading down now though.
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Jun 21, 2010 8:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Bit annoyed with my lack of patience this morning...I've been playing EU 15min chart and have had entries @ 1.2458 (x3), 1.2443, 1.2428, 1.2397 (x2),1.2397. Got stopped out by moving SL to close a while ago ona ll but the last trade. Made 1% on these entries but I should still be holding all of them as my charts have not told me anything to persuade me that my analysis that EU is going down on 15min chart is anything but correct.
See GU is heading down now though.
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It hit my ultimate TP just now...you can see what I was playing on the 15 min charts....just basic breakouts...if I'd held my original positions I'd be very happy right now.
GU SL moved to BE
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Jun 21, 2010 8:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Anyone thinking of Shorting Oil? 80 being a strong resistance BEOB h1 and there are two gaps to be closed: TW and LW
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I'd prefer to short Oil above 79.20 |
Jun 21, 2010 8:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
It hit my ultimate TP just now...you can see what I was playing on the 15 min charts....just basic breakouts...if I'd held my original positions I'd be very happy right now.
GU SL moved to BE
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To really rub it in I calculated what my profit would have been if I'd kept my patience and confidence in my EU trade...account would have been increased by about 13%...compared to to the 2.04% that was actually gained. |
Jun 21, 2010 8:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
You mean Below 79.20. BOut of PPZ ?
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No, daily PPZ and 61 fib is around 79.20 - 80 so I'd prefer to get nearer that zone before shorting, |
Jun 21, 2010 10:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Closed GU at BE +. It s going up !!
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Yeah I got out for a small profit when it broke back above 1.4835 PPZ.
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Jun 21, 2010 10:28am
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short gold on TL break...calculated my risk wrong though so only 0.75% at risk.
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Jun 21, 2010 10:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Here we go. We're filling the gap
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Yep...ftse and dax have been steadily falling all day towards filling the gap...dow and S&P in particular are now gaining some momentum...took this BEOb on GU 15min across the PPZ...got re quoted on my market order though.
Been looking into using an STP broker like Jade FX in addition to Oanda and Fxpro (have to use fxpro from my futures) and reckon I'll open an account this week. Anyone got any experience of an STP broker and Jade FX? |
Jun 21, 2010 11:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Saw that on GU too late else I would have taken it with you (PB on M30 also). I was watching UJ (got a short on the break of the H1 IB and H4 PB).
Sorry man, no experience. Only live broker I use is ActivTrades. Opened an account with them due to their micro-lots, but they do have horrible spreads...
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great entry on UJ...if equities to fall down hard then UJ will tank hard too. I was too busy watching tennis lol! |
Jun 21, 2010 11:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
great entry on UJ...if equities to fall down hard then UJ will tank hard too. I was too busy watching tennis lol!
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Just managed to get in on the 4HR UJ pin bar on the retrace...pheww!
Notice equities falling and gold falling...contrary to what 'should' happen!
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Jun 21, 2010 11:10am
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A great PA bar...but so much traffic to the left...so not taking it.
Moved SL on GU down slightly to just above the PPZ and added a pending order @ 1.4802 if we can break the PPZ - P&V style trading.
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Jun 21, 2010 12:26pm
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Second order triggered...lets see if we can get some momentum...MA below will provide support but if equities keep falling then we shouldnget down further...that's a big IF though...momentum has been lacking for a while now...equities are only gradually falling...no economic news to provide a catalyst...could be a good setup for it to fall tomorrow though with news around...
Gold at an obvious TP of 1250 now...will hold and move SL to BE...wanna see if wthis is the start of a bigger move. I'm also short YMUO from earlier and EG (small 1HR pin bar) and a various basket consisting of UC,EU,GJ,AU so far.
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Jun 21, 2010 12:50pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Lovejoy just came back from my job i saw i missed a good 1 on gbp/jpy..
Shame.
I have a question to you do you mind to share your tpl with the ma's settings etc i wanna try the colours the whole thing hope you dont mind.
Thanks.. |
The pin near the top of the range would have been better.
I've been very cautious today with my shorts...we got a sell off last week but it didn't go anywhere near to where I expected and I got seriously burned by over leveraging on xxx/usd and jpy shorts. But today I missed a trick by having most of my exposure to xxx/usd short rather than g/j, e/j and c/j.
Stioll being pretty cautious i'm up over 4% on open positions and wont be taking losses!
I entered some ej and cj exposure a while ago...way to late really though and another EU short on break of 4HR support area.
Will monitor existing trades now as YM plus EP both near potential support areas...this might just be a mini sell off so will take profit if we get a retrace. We are selling on no real news though which is a good sign as we have lots of decent news tomorrow which could give us some real momentum...anyway we'll have to see... |
Jun 21, 2010 12:52pm
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really bloody regretting messing up my gold exposure and only having 0.75% exposed to shorts! Have to say someone more experienced than me told me they thought Gold would drop and pointed out why they though it would...so thanks Rac!
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Jun 21, 2010 12:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Any fundamentals for that gold move?
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Not that I know off. I just took full profit on it...its hit a TL and PPZ confluence...even with 0.75% exposed I still made 2.5% on that trade.
I got showed a chart of dow and gold on middle of may...and also a monthly chart of oil. |
Jun 21, 2010 1:47pm
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Taken all profit now...had a bounce at equity support areas...we could have further moves down but I've got a bad migraine (I get blurry eyesight when I have a migraine) so need to get away from my screen and get some sleep. I'm gonna enter some speculative shorts with wide stop losses and leave them until tomorrow...hopefully I wont miss a really big move. Made about 9% today so stopped my 5 day losing streak!!
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Jun 21, 2010 3:24pm
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Well thedow and S&P reacted exactly like I expected them too in the confluenced areas. EU and GU in particular have bounced down off confluenced areas too. These moves were made on no economic news...it will be very interesting to see what teh data is like tomorrow and how the market reacts...that will give us a big clue as to whether we will continue down, over the last 2 weeks the market has sustained its rally on bad news...if its bad tomorrow will it rally on dips or tank further down...that's what I'll be watching.
Even though I've made some decent gains today, on sell off's like today I've made 25% + so in review I have actually traded quite poorly, bit annoyed I didn't keep hold of EU, GU, AU, AJ shorts as I want to trade them on the longer term time frame too i.e. hold them as we could now see the resumption of the downtrend i.e. I could have held positions from the start of a potential new trend.
I closed some of my trades a bit too early and should have stayed calm and left them, but I suppose that's what happens after you've had a bad run, in a way I'm just glad that the market reacted like I expected it too and I made some decent daily gains! A day like today would be exactly where I'd be loading up in my new basket trading style gaining 5-8% account exposure to shorts and leaving them to fall as long as the equity markets fall.
Got a few small shorts open but apart from that I'm done for today, back tomorrow...will be an interesting day.
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Jun 22, 2010 1:57am
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Have orders short on the GU and EU BEOB's (on Oanda) and the 4HR EJ pin bar. 2% on the daily setups and 1.5% on the EJ setup.
Also have pending shorts on gold based on daily BEOB and a potential touch trade retrace if we get there first. Lots of trouble on gold BEOB bar but hoping we can have a big momentum move down like yesterday.
A bit disappointed with myself that I didn't hold some touch trades on most pairs from yesterday. Have learnt that I have to make a detailed plan in advance for expected event like yesterday.
I also have smaller longer term shorts on EU, GJ and AJ from yesterday evening.
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Jun 22, 2010 2:01am
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Also have a lower risk entry into the daily BEOB for 1%.
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Jun 22, 2010 2:07am
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The daily setups...pretty simple PA off good confluenced area...exactly where I should be holding touch trades from...it doesn't get better or simpler than that really.
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Jun 22, 2010 3:10am
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seeing a bounce on Dax and FTSE equities. Euro news out in a bit and UK emergency budget at lunch...expectng volatility on GBP and watching GBP/xxx pairs carefully for any price action prior to the release.
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Jun 22, 2010 3:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Higher TF PPZ.
What else you need?
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Nothing...but we did have some fibs and TL too for added confluence
How's it going Nasir? |
Jun 22, 2010 6:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
IT's a lot messy right now.
I have some 3-4 trading idea's spinning in my head and i can't find time/strength to test them out.
I always wonder why do i keep on researching about things?? why can't i just i find something and stick with it for the rest my life??
don't know if it's good or bad....
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I know what you mean...I think it's the creative / entrepreneurial side of you coming out...always wanting to improve or explore new / additional methods. You wouldn't believe my bookmarked things of threads / subjects / ideas on my 'to do' list...I struggle to sleep sometimes as my mind is a constant whirl of thoughts and ideas.
If you want some help in testing anything then I'll be happy to help, of course if personal projects then understood.
You been trading much or just working on ideas / psychology etc? |
Jun 22, 2010 6:07am
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FTA hit on EJ BEOB, SL moved to BE.
not long until we get the emergency budget. If the public sector cuts and tax rises are big that will be conceived positive by the market...personally I want i tot be light for both trading and well my own being reasons. I'd expect a freeze on public sector pay, rise in CGT (grrrrr) and VAT (pointless and potentially very damaging to the recovery) help for the low income in terms of income tax and etc. and 90% tax for all bankers and a windfall tax on banks profits (maybe that's wishful thinking lol).
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Jun 22, 2010 6:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Thanks for the offer LJ i'll consider it.
Nowadays i am not trading much. Yesterday i was watching that match and din't even looked at charts and missed the moves that i was anticipating for some weeks.
So i am just thinking about different things and in a day or two i'll be back at charts with hardcore testing mode.
I think psychology is just a bitch. You think about it and it takes over, you throw it away and there no psychological issue any more. (i know i didn't explained it well). |
yeah those moves were pretty well expected. I learnt that I need to have a strict plan as to what I will do rather than trying to trade in faster movement markets calculating lot sizes, cumulative exposure etc...made some nice gains but should have been a lot more and should still be holding some shorts from the touch trade areas. Oh well, lesson learned.
I agree, I think you need to be aware of psychology but cant over think it...there is no definitive answer or solution IMO and it's an ongoing struggle to find a balance...I don't think the human mind can reach perfection from a psychology perspective |
Jun 22, 2010 11:34am
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Daily GU BEOB went to FTA and reversed hard on the UK budget news...this is happening quite a lot on higher timeframe PA recently, no runners just FTA and reverse. I'd moved my stop down and it got hit just above the 1.4800 area.
EU daily trade still in play.
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Jun 22, 2010 12:14pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Just curious, how do you normally play these FTA's? Do you have a preset plan, or do you watch and wait, and see what kind of reaction they will give? Sorry, probably pretty general question.
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It depends on the market we are in they type of setup and where the FTA is compared to the entry. If it is close then I'll be looking for a hard break through and if it doesnt then I'll probably cut the trade.
Because PA hasn't been working out great recently on GU I moved it down slightly once the FTA got hit as looking at my charts I was working the assumption that we will continue to move down to test the yearly lows thus I wanted to give it some room but I try and never take a full bar loss on a daily setup. If a PA bar is going to be successful it will rarely retrace back further than 50-61 fib of the bar itself, if it does then IMO it should be cut as it has price has a very high chance of then continuing past the bar in the wrong direction |
Jun 22, 2010 3:00pm
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Missed today's sell off...equity futures had some great setups to get into shorts and I was away from my screen. I have some EJ and EU shorts but nothing major...CAD and AUD were the pairs...as pointed out previously to trade when dow has a sell off.
Been a very frustrating 2 days...when we've had expected sell off's like this before I've loaded up, pulled the trigger and increased my account by 20-50%...this time I've been too cautious, haven't had a disciplined plan and been too impatient....which I guess is a result of what happens when you've been through a lean period it's all part of the psychology of trading and the continuing learning experience that comes from being involved in this business. As long as I learn from my mistakes...
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Jun 22, 2010 3:07pm
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These were my areas to get into shorts.
It's very frustrating when you know what he market is going to do but you dont take advantage of that knowledge. Will go over thewhole move at the weekend and print some chart and make some notes on what I should have done...so Im ready for when we get the next sell off....if anyone interested I'll upload here too.
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Jun 22, 2010 4:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Not sure if this is up your alley LJ...UCAD short that I'm in for, S&R + TL.
Sorry to hear you weren't loaded on the Euro shorts earlier...that bottom falling out in the last hour or so was a nice move, late, but nice. Coming off a lean period, it's expected you'll be a bit risk adverse, which will pass as your trading continues to increase. It's only Tuesday... |
CJ and AJ and possible NJ were the shorts to own ...when dow moves off the commodity currencies and currencies with higher interest rates normally fall the fastest...
Yep that looks good to me ...not trading any more today but I'd take that otherwise. I would be aiming for 1.0250 first then the 1.0220PPZ , fibs plus maybe the rising TL for a TP and reverse for long area.
That's definitely what happens...you lose confidence and dont take trades you'd normally take in your sleep. I'm up about 6% this week so I shouldn't really complain too much but I know it could be sooo much more from previous experience and when it's laid on plate like it has been this week you gotta eat as much as you can as you just dont know when the next free meal is gonna come along lol. But as you say plenty more opportunities with FOMC and a bunch of other data out tomorrow. |
Jun 23, 2010 2:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Don't forget to switch oil, from #CLN to #CLQ. That's if you were wondering why prices didn't move. |
Yeah I switchedoer yeserday thanks...be waching how price approaches this area (if we get there) for a short opportunity. |
Jun 23, 2010 3:19am
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Pending order set o@ 79.90 on oil.
Trying this 1HR pin no AU too. ...price has bounced of a PPZ and the 50/61 fib area. Buy order was 1.5 pips above the PPZ aarea marked just above the pin bar. Moving to BE at the next marked trouble area...will take half profit @ 0.8745 and move stop up to just under the previous trouble area. Will take the remaining 50% if we hit either of the TL's marked.
That's the trade plan set (oh and initial stop is below the low of those bars to the left rather than low of the pin bar...reasoning is that IMO if those lows are breached price has a very high chance of going on down to test the PPZ area i.e. the low of the pin bar again)
Also havea pending short on gold @ 1249...daily PPZ in the 50/61 area from recent swing
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Jun 23, 2010 3:31am
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.
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Jun 23, 2010 8:38am
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Took this pin got out at BE on the retrace following it hitting FTA...when you cant make decent gains on PA setups you know things are tough lol!
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Jun 23, 2010 9:36am
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I cut my FTSE and Dow shorts earlier as FTSE was moving up...oil and gold just failed to hit my pending short and now all are falling hard....I've lost my mojo! Time to give up and watch the footie!
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Jun 23, 2010 9:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Take it slow LJ. I don't know what advice to give you, because you know better than me what you should do when things like this come down the road.
I tried to take a nap after the horrible morning I had and I just couldn't sleep. I feel bad as hell now. Gave up all my profits this week in a couple of impulse trades. Man, it sure sucks to be overconfident... And I knew not to be cocky, but just could help myself.
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I've had some really bad impulse trades today and yesterday... I get in them get scared and exit and they go the right way eventually. Need to get back to basics and just wait for some really good setups in order to get the confidence back. It's a bit frustrating as my analysis is spot on but trades are either just missing my entries by few pips (and they always just take off dont they lol!) or my entries are just a bit too early the I exit and they come back and soar.
Doing anything to reset your mind and emotions to neutral is what is needed...recognising you need to do that and how to do that are more difficult
The gold BEOB (daily) from 2 days ago has now triggered and my pending short order (I forgot about that!) got hit, lets shoot down to 1219.50 please!
Oh and come on England!!! |
Jun 23, 2010 2:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Congratulation on England |
Yeah , they played much better...buy boy that was once nervous moment when upson got in that last ditch tackle in the last few minutes. I wanted USA to win, they play well a bit cavalier at times but are fun to watch...but England coming second in their group is far from ideal...praying that Germany don't come top, want to avoid them at all cost! |
Jun 23, 2010 3:09pm
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Taking a look at equity futures...two charts of YM, 3 PPZ levels below @ 10125, 10060, 10000 areas...if the downtrend continues (as can be seen clearly on the 1HR chart) I'll be watching these areas for bounces...in an ideal world we'll bounce at the first two before heading back down to 10000 and then a bigger retracement back up.
I'll be setting buy orders at all three of these levels.
Next step is to look at the xxx/usd and xxx/jpy pairs and mark PPZ and if it hits a PPZ when YM hits one of the three aras above then its time to load up...it's as simple as that (very similar channel on EP with 1075 area as the next are for a bounce).
Oh and I've shorted Gold from the retrace to the broken TL. If we can close below 1228 then we'll have te second decent daily BEOB in three days...it's easy to see on the daily chart where the targets are.
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Jun 24, 2010 3:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm with you LJ.
Nice trade on AU. Had too much risk in the market, didn't want to add another position, with the low confidence and all.
1.5 would have been sweet on GU.
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You got the better entry on Gold I only had the lower entry.
I'm also in EG but based on the 4HR pin so not get anywhere on that yet either. I'm also short EU and AU based on charts below.
Look how YM bounced down hard of the TL touch just now...my confidence is low too otherwise I would have taken that and loaded up.
GU would have been good as per my chart below but I reckon there will be other xxx/usd and jpy pairs that will drop harder as GBP has been strong due to fundamentals over the last few days.
Whats happneed to my EU chart I've lost a load of data?!?!? |
Jun 24, 2010 4:16am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I got out of EG. From a +2R high, got out with +0.2R. Talk about confidence gain. By the look of that H1 close, i wouldn't want to be on EG. Maybe a quadruple bottom around 0.82? I think it will break this time around.
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Yeah I got out for a loss on EG.
Took profit on other trades apart from Gold as equity futures are in support areas now.
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Jun 24, 2010 4:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
So much for the rise in EU. We've pulled a nice looking H&S. Make way for 1.2. Again.
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I got out too early....thought YM double bottom would hold. It seems with the Football yesterday we are seeing the delay in the market response to FOMC statement and US home sales from yesterday... i.e. the true reaction which normally you'd see yesterday we are seeing now.
I still expect a bounce or slight retracement on equities prior to US open.
Well spotted , I can never spot H&S patterns! |
Jun 24, 2010 7:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Feel like going against the intermediate trend?
1% at risk with buy limit at 89.25, SL 88.80. I'll add a little at 89.00 if it gets there.
Gold let me down. Had such high expectations. Got out at the break of the IB for pennies and nickels.
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89 areas is an obvious PPZ so it definitely could bounce.
I just got back in gold short after getting stopped out at BE earlier |
Jun 24, 2010 7:46am
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Well xxx/jpy has gone down a lot further and fast than I thought...not chasing falling knife here and want to wait until after the unemployment claims release in 45 minutes as this will have a big affect on the market.
I'm short gold and long G/AUd and G/CAD. I thought about going long these after the MPC minutes but decided against it...might be a bit late now but fundamentally the GBP is currently the strongest of the majors and AUd (following the change in prime minister) is particularly weak. No technical setups just based on current GBP strength and AUD/CAD weakness based on recent fundamentals.
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Jun 24, 2010 9:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
chart
analyze this (DOW-Gold ratio)
I'm with you on Gold, though I would have been better off taking a short on oil, but figured gold has more room to run. |
Where did you get this from? |
Jun 24, 2010 9:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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I'm still in my Gold short , SL @ 1239. Entry on GC was 1.5626 with a 200 pip SL.
Do you know how I can fix my EU chart its missing data from 17th May to 21st June i.e. no data on my chart at all I've tried downloading the history data but no joy and in fact that's what caused the data to go awol in the first place. |
Jun 24, 2010 9:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
via tools-history center?
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yeah.
Damn was literally putting a pending short on YM @ 10150 anddown it went before I could get it on! lol
am short AU from a retrace to the 1HR PPZ.
1 more attempt at gold |
Jun 24, 2010 10:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
When you go to history center and double click EURUSD, say 1 Hour, or Daily, doesn't matter, do you see the data being there?
Try closing the platform and opening it again.
If that doesn't do the trick, try this 2 things.
First thing:
[list=1][*]Close the platform (but first, look at the server that you're using - click the numbers in the bottom right).[*]Go to MT4 folder historycurrent server you're using and delete all EURUSD files (should be EURUSD1, EURUSD5 ... EURUSD43200).[*]Open the platform again and connect to the same server. It...
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Thanks I just deleted them form the history folder and its loaded back up fine. But now I'm having the problem where it crashed if I try and view my current indicators again arrrgghhhhhh time to re-install fxpro again me thins. |
Jun 24, 2010 10:42am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
How did you solve it last time?
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downloaded fxpro and re-installed a clean version. |
Jun 24, 2010 12:25pm
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Took this earlier...but chikened out and got out at FTA. Not sure why the EUR is so strong across the board...
Watching GU for some PA on lower timeframes around then 1.5 round number, we have big divergence.
Watching YM closely for another leg down at around 10160-70.
Taken some losses today by straying away from my rules.
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Jun 24, 2010 1:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
E/U approaching support, and DJ been sitting on some for a bit now. Would you make a play on E/U, or do you prefer for them to hit resistance at the same time almost exactly?
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Took a short EU - touch trade and with YM sitting between 10170 and 10120 hopefully we'll break down further on YM soon.
Also taken a 30min BEOB on GU. |
Jun 24, 2010 3:05pm
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Ym hitting TL and fibs confluence = short xx/jpy and xxx/usd
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Jun 25, 2010 4:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
LJ, I don't know if you're still around or holding GC, but I think if that line doesn't hold (the neckline of a nice H&S), there's nothing holding price down to 1.54, maybe 1.53.
Just a heads up.
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Agreed...Sl is just under there. Seems my analysis was right I was just far to late to the party.
Took this earlier...gotta go out soon so not really looking at charts till later. |
Jun 25, 2010 4:42am
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If it breaks...will likely go to 5000 and take gbp with it...sl to BE on gu trade
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Jun 25, 2010 5:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
H1 H&S in H4 H&S. A lot of H&S lately, I'm not obsessed about them, honest |
Nice...I'm in from the break of the neckline. |
Jun 25, 2010 7:30am
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Pending short on gold.
YM - will the TL and broken support hold as resistance...on the basis it will look for xxx/usd and xxx/jpy at resistance levels too...
Ym is at the top of a potential reversal zone...the closer we can get to 10000 the better, but I'll be looking for 'signs' that we could see a decent bounceon YM then loading up longs on FX accordingly, I'm hoping for one more down leg before an up move
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Jun 25, 2010 7:35am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
What do you think of this 2 charts?
Interesting, at least. |
My charts are similar...we are in the reversal zone...CJ in particular was worth a touch trade lone...strong PPZ with 61 fib. I'm waiting for YM to show it's hand or for gold and oil to show their hands. I'm hoping for one leg down towards 10000 on YM before a bounce and then I'll go long. We might not get a down leg but US open will show us the way. |
Jun 25, 2010 9:20am
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Grabbed some pips on a YM and AJ short...got one YM position left but at BE now...final GDP news for US was worse than expected but after an initial thrust down we short back up on YM...that leads me to think either no one is bothered or that the market is turning and we'll see a move up to break the TL on YM.
Gold trade got stopped out and gold is shooting up.
To that end I've gone long EJ...we are at the bottom of the range so risking 1% with SL below 109.50 seeing if can pre-empt a move up on YM and cos of the gold move.
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Jun 25, 2010 10:02am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Grabbed some pips on a YM and AJ short...got one YM position left but at BE now...final GDP news for US was worse than expected but after an initial thrust down we short back up on YM...that leads me to think either no one is bothered or that the market is turning and we'll see a move up to break the TL on YM.
Gold trade got stopped out and gold is shooting up.
To that end I've gone long EJ...we are at the bottom of the range so risking 1% with SL below 109.50 seeing if can pre-empt a move up on YM and cos of the gold move.
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Oil on the move, gold on the move....YM to follow? |
Jun 25, 2010 11:03am
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Another EJ long and UJ long at test of recent low with divergence.
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Jun 28, 2010 5:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
If this doesn't go at least to 1.03, I don't know what will. UC, I've got my 2% on it.
Also short gold 1253.5, in drawdown right now.
What's happening LJ, slow Monday? Upset over the match?
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I'm not in anything right now. typical slow Monday with no news about.
Nah, tpyical England never perform on the big stage like they do for their clubs. It was one of the worst performances i've ever seen by England, I couldn't believe how they defended as a unit they were just truly awful. The disallowed goal could have made a difference as Germany scored 2 goals on the counter (and it made Blatter look like the complete fool that he is - IMO he is so out of touch with the game and just concerned with money but they deserved to win and we wouldn't have beaten Argentina anyway! Germany aren't that good IMO there defence is not great but England played like a Sunday league team...the thing that frustrates teh fans is that they perform week in week out for their clubs and play superb yet every single player was poor in the world cup.
Capello has to take some blame as the system he played was clearly wrong as everyone apart from him knew and he isn't prepared to change and adapt to different situations and for different opponents. He should definitely go.
Anyway rant over with.
Why short gold? |
Jun 28, 2010 6:03am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I'm not really into football. I mean I like watching the occasional Champions League big games, Euro & stuff, but that's about it, so I can't really comment on it. I'll let you do the talking.
About Gold, I don't really have a good explanation. Felt like taking a long shot on the divergence that is showing and maybe the slanted H&S, but by the way things are moving, I might get taken out at 1260.
I started the day saying to myself that I'm not going to trade, but I couldn't pass on that UC BEOB.
Also wanted to post this chart: |
i'm not keen on the UC trade, just because the %R to FTA is low and lack of momentum this morning.
I have the same chart on YM...watch for 10160-70 as 4HR PPZ though and then next target would be 10250 daily PPZ for me. We have a daily pin so a break of this are could be a way of getting into the pin with smaller stop |
Jun 28, 2010 10:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
I agree with you Mark,England doesn't play very well the hole world cup.Again the same thing.Players just don't play the same what they play in clubs.England just still don't have right manager to manage these guys.
Anyway we play with Holland today and will be good experience for those young boys we don't have quality go to win only try to play the best what we can at the moment. |
Everyone was saying England need to play 4-5-1 formation with rooney up front by himself as that's how he plays at united and that's the system Chelsea play. england can't play 4-4-2 against the big clubs as lampard and gerrard dont defend and Barry is no international holding player...he hasnt got a hard tackle in him and hes not a proflic passer...and that is what a holding player need to be. It was still shocking the way they defended it was embarrassing. It's a shame as we all know what those players are capable off I mean Rooney was so poor and he didn't even look up for it like he does for United. I thought Capello was a really good manager but now I don't think so. His tactics were wrong and the couldn't get the best out of the players so he's got to go.
Not the best first half for Slovenia but only 1-0 and Holland are culpable to self-destructing...
No trades for me today. I reckon Monday's are the new Fridays i.e. no trade days...just so dull! There is a severe lack of trading opportunities lately, I'm starting to do some searching and research into lower time frames i.e. 5mins and and 1min scalping methods as if the market continues the way it has over the last 6 weeks then I'll need to find another way to keep the account rising. |
Jun 28, 2010 10:58am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Everyone was saying England need to play 4-5-1 formation with rooney up front by himself as that's how he plays at united and that's the system Chelsea play. england can't play 4-4-2 against the big clubs as lampard and gerrard dont defend and Barry is no international holding player...he hasnt got a hard tackle in him and hes not a proflic passer...and that is what a holding player need to be. It was still shocking the way they defended it was embarrassing. It's a shame as we all know what those players are capable off I mean Rooney was so poor...
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Okay maybe not all markets...just looked at gold and nearly fell off my chair...I was waiting for a double top and a lower time frame PA with divergence but we never got there. That was one impulsive sell off there! |
Jun 28, 2010 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Are the current 1.228-1.23 EUR/USD levels interesting to you at all LJ?
Long, of course...
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I like the channel and the fib + PPZ area we are in (though the ppz is not a great one) but I don't like the strength / momentum of the down move i.e. 4 previous bearish bars and I don't like dax and dow futures...if they were at support or had broken above the TL on dax and the tight range on dow then I'd be in.
I'll sit on my hands for this one...though if around I'll probably take a small long trade near 1.2250 if we get there. |
Jun 28, 2010 1:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I like the channel and the fib + PPZ area we are in (though the ppz is not a great one) but I don't like the strength / momentum of the down move i.e. 4 previous bearish bars and I don't like dax and dow futures...if they were at support or had broken above the TL on dax and the tight range on dow then I'd be in.
I'll sit on my hands for this one...though if around I'll probably take a small long trade near 1.2250 if we get there.
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. |
Jun 28, 2010 1:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Wish I sat on my hands today. Got bruised badly. And I started the day saying 'don't trade'... Talk about intuition. Well, not intuition, but I knew Monday's are tough to trade and also with my journal and every other read telling me that Monday's are bad for trading.
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I took one trade and lost 2% on it. EU pin off support and 61 fib confluence. It went to he FTA which was very close. my plan was to give it some room but cut it for a loss if it went below the first eye. Popped out of the room and left SL at bottom of pin and when came back SL had got hit.
Commodities have been sold hard today. Don't know why. |
Jun 28, 2010 1:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
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I reckon Chille will give thema good game...Spain were fortunate to get their first goal as Chille were all over them before the mistake and of course Torres's typical spanish dive got their player sent off the it was game over. Chille are a bit weak at teh back and they are always liable to get a player sent off, but if they close down brazil like they did Chille then I reckon they've got an outside chance. Should be a good game to watch. |
Jun 29, 2010 2:32am
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Taken a Gold trade. We have a daily BEOB but there is not much space below it. So I've taken a 1HR pin off a 4HR PPZ. I would have got in at the PPZ if I was awake earlier. I'll add another order if the BEOb breaks and take some profit at the TL. If we can break the TL I'll add another short. If all that happens the this trade will make my day lol!.
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Jun 29, 2010 2:40am
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Lots of action in Asia unfortunately. Missed the break of the AJ triangle that I was waiting for. AU has a similar triangle.
CJ is at 61 fib and daily PPZ area + divergence
Missed the pullback to the TL last night on EU and we are now at a potential bounce area of 1.2250. i'd expect a bounce as Ym is at 10,000 PPZ and 61 fib area now. Though if we get another leg down then I'm a definite buyer @ 1.2150 area.
1.5000 will be interesting on GU...potential area for a long opportunity?
GJ is in a well defined range.
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Jun 29, 2010 2:46am
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YM has daily PPZ in the 9970 area. We just bounced of 10000 psychological round number.
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Jun 29, 2010 2:52am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Nice charts, as always.
I was thinking about Gold just when you pulled the trigger, but I said pass. It's at a 'nervous' spot, and you can get shaken out pretty easily. Of course, if it drops, it'll drop hard.
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It is indeed. It dropped hard yesterday when equities fell. Equities look like falling hard today at the moment so hopefully it'll drop hard through the TL. I've got 2% short @ 1238.50 area split into two parts and I've moved one to BE and left the other SL @1242.50 and decided I would add 1% more at break of BEOB only there is plenty of support below in the form of the TL and PPZ @ 1228.50 and 1218. |
Jun 29, 2010 3:03am
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Not gonig to post every setup in the 'journal' anymore. Just gonna post when I see a setup I'm about to take or the bigger picture of what I'm looking at when I get time and just discuss some general setups in accordance with my trading style i.e. rather than strict journal I'd prefer this thread to be more of a discussion place regarding the trading methods I use as it pretty much has become.
I did some work over the weekend looking through the journal and came to the conclusion that decent setups are hard to come by at the moment compared to previously when there was multiple setups per day.
I've also noticed that I've become more of a counter-trend swing trader placing a lot of focus on YM and waiting for YM to hit S/R before taking counter trend trades on FX majors. This is definitely an important part of my trading (especially at the moment when YM is in PPZ area) but I also want to get back to keeping things simple and trading what I see and taking some trend trades...so on the active look out for these. 1.5000 on GU is looking attractive to me as a trend trade as IMO GBP has been considered the strongest fundamental currency out of teh majors ever since the emergency budget and I'm a bit annoyed at myself I didn 't buy a load of G/CAd, G/AUd etc (well I did but too late and caught the minor retracement! Talk about bad execution!).
As I also mentioned previously I'm looking into some lower time frame trading i.e. 15mins and lower. I've looked into VSA which I like the look of as there is a lot of 'science' behind it but it is something that will take a fair while to learn and practice IMO, so this is more of a long term plan. IMO the best way of playing the 15min and lower time frame is pure trend trading. You get a lot of trend on these time frames, especially the likes of GU and EU at the moment so it's a case of using appropriate tools to catch these trends. Some people might laugh but a simple MA crossover approach does actually work really well on the lower timeframe to catch a trend - it's just spotting the the ranging part and staying out that is tough. Thus I'm actively exploring options of very simple trend trading on 15min and lower TF so if anyone knows any decent threads let me know. The way I see it you have to adapt to the market and the 1HR and 4HR setups are far and few between lately so I have to adapt as I need my account to still grow.
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Jun 29, 2010 3:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
If 10.000 doesn't hold, we're in a world of hurt. Just like on EU, if 1.2150 doesn't hold, we can kiss the euro goodbye.
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I think we'll see 9970 on YM.
Risk sentiment is bearish at the moment - the market has drifted down yesterday and overnight on no economic news. This week will shape the short term direction as we have lots of US data...ADP, ISM, unemployment and NFP...a very big week for US data which will shape the bearish / bullish outlook for the short term IMO.
If the data is bad then I think we can say we are in a bear market now and NOT a correction to the bull market. |
Jun 29, 2010 3:14am
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2nd gold position triggered.
Now drop hard!!
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Jun 29, 2010 3:37am
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Breakout and pullback and equity futures are falling...with Asia falling hard I reckon we'll see follow through this morning.
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Jun 29, 2010 3:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
But you did well on that 5min strategy that you were using. Why look for something different? I don't think you can find a set and forget kind of strategy on M5-15, you'll really need to be glued to your screen. Not that you/we aren't now.
The thing with high frequency trading like on M5 is that you get subjected to slippage, requotes, bad execution. And you know that it happened on H1 from time to time.. |
Cos the thing with that strategy was that you have to look at the chart the whole time i.e. every bar and react very quickly. Thus I wouldn't be able to trade any other method i.e. my current trading style. I want something that is very simple and you don't need to look at every 5min or 15 min bar close. I've also seen some decent london, frankfurt, newyork open breakout trading methods too so looking at them all when I get time and will come up with something and post here. |
Jun 29, 2010 3:49am
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I'm also looking at GBP vs AUd/CAd and NZD following on from what I said yesterday about GBP strength. I want some retracements to get into the uptrend as not getting burned again and entering blindly into the trend.
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Jun 29, 2010 3:57am
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Gold hit the TL and didn't break hard like I wanted it too so took a v.small net profit. Will, watch carefully and have a pending short below the TL just in case it does suddenly break hard otherwise I'll be looking for a re-entry back towards the 4HR PPZ.
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Jun 29, 2010 5:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj, what do you think of a short at this at 1700?
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A confluenced area for sure plus 150MA looks like it will be around the TL then too.
have a look at G/NZD too @ 2.1750-2.1800 |
Jun 29, 2010 7:09am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
LJ, that chart was GBPNZD or were you referring to another chart?
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lol...ignore me, I think wha tI did was look at my G/NZD then scrol through the other GBP/xxx pairs then got back to G/NZd without realising it was G?NZD and thought ooohhh that looks nice too lol!
Here is my chart by the way, slightly different to yours but same area.
The only concern I would have is that the GBP is very strong at the moment (gutted I missed some easy pips on GBP) and it's gonna take something to reverse it suddenly. Risk appetite being back on would be one thing that could cause a change in direction as NZD, CAD and AUD being commodity currencies should get bought harder than GBP (plus positive interest rate differential) or maybe we'll get poor GBP data at some point / better than expected NZD data - it's worth keeping an eye on data releases as you can see what would provide us with a catalyst for a chance in opinion / view on the pair in question as the daily up moves have been strong. Just my view, of course you could just trade your charts and keep it simple lol. |
Jun 29, 2010 8:28am
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The big question for me this afternoon is what is the US session gonna do to YM...we are sitting on 9970 support. I've taken a long on AJ and GJ (0.5% positions each).
I took profit on EU shorts and gold short earlier but my pending gold order just got triggered @ 1232.00 (below the TL).
Could have taken an oil short on break and pullback to TL but missed my entry point.
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Jun 29, 2010 8:30am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
similar opp on gcad to go long on break and close above 5900.
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I missed the optimum entry @ 1.5600 on break of the range. |
Jun 29, 2010 9:47am
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Dow tanking but not really much movement in currencies apart from EUR |
Jun 29, 2010 10:44am
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Confidence figures caused a stir didn't they. AU, AJ, EU, EJ UC and CJ are all at PPZ areas now as well as YM. time to load up.
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Jun 29, 2010 11:34am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ogeid
Blindly Long ? |
No, touch trades based on the pairs in question being at strong daily PPZ levels and YM at a daily PPZ level too so expected a bounce which we got and some 1HR pins to go with it. Taken some profit and moved rest to BE and trading the 1HR EU pin. |
Jun 29, 2010 11:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
When I first started, I was using the london and NY breakouts. But I never liked the system. It was straightforward, buy/sell at x pips above/below the box, take profit, stop loss etc, but there was no feeling for the market involved. And it worked by numbers. You had to do it everyday, day by day, or else you would have lost the edge. I didn't toy with it for a long time, just a couple of weeks or so then I lost interest. Maybe you can have a crack at it if it suits you.
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I'm looking for something very straightforward which is a mechanical system with no (or very little) discretion that plays the trend on the 1min-15min time frame but not something that uses loads of indicators.
I'm currently looking at these two threads. the first of which is a frankfurt / newyork breakout on 1min timeframe. There are no hard and fast rules though, you just look for an impulse bar on this timeframe (or lower) and the trade it with a tiny SL. (Using EU by the way). I would think days like today it was pretty obvious at NY open that we were gonna get some momentum down.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=156106
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=215432
Trouble is though it is slightly discretionary though you could make it mechanical and there is no EA. I wouldnt necessarily want to trade by EA but being able to backtest the statistics would help as backtesting a 1min chart manually is very very time consuming! lol.
The other thread I've read is this and all related posts by the author. By the sounds of it he uses MA's and probably some sort of stochastic to play the trend on the 1min time frame on GU. I've used MA systems in the past and they actually catcha trend pretty well....it's just staying out in the ranging times that is key.
But this is the kind of direction I'm going with it.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Jun 29, 2010 12:10pm
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Jun 29, 2010 12:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
No, touch trades based on the pairs in question being at strong daily PPZ levels and YM at a daily PPZ level too so expected a bounce which we got and some 1HR pins to go with it. Taken some profit and moved rest to BE and trading the 1HR EU pin.
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Worked out ok so far. Only took small positions as the move down on Dow hjas been strong. Was considering going long YM and oil too.
This was the EU pin that I got in too. |
Jun 29, 2010 12:57pm
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[quote=alifari;3838297]
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I'm looking for something very straightforward which is a mechanical system with no (or very little) discretion that plays the trend on the 1min-15min time frame but not something that uses loads of indicators.
Hi LJ,
I am a regular viewer of your thread and have learn't a lot from your Journal.
For shorter time frame you can also try this thread (Jankone 5 Minute Thread). Make sure to read all Ryan's post. It may not be on Jankone's thread, but you can go to his profile and review his charts in detail.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163972... |
Thanks, I'm pretty familiar with Jankone thread and followed it for a while. The method involves a lot of chart watching and is definitely discretionary as a lot of people on there have different methods. I've read RyanMCD posts before but it might be a time to read again. |
Jun 29, 2010 2:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
lj,
trust you are watching these too for a daily play (long)
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If we have a confirmed breakout then yeah I'll go long.
looking to get into any GBP pair at the moment and play its strong fundamentals while they last! |
Jun 29, 2010 2:25pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
i am more in favour of gcad because gnzd has an immediate resistance of 2.2
i am not sure of s/l yet, since this is new to me (trading trend line breaks and against long term trend)
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Yeah I agree on G/NZD resistance but what I do like is the series of higher lows and higher highs.
Will you play a clean break. I'll probably (maybe) enter a small position no a clean break and then a proper position on retest. I don't know about SL but it will be at a level where I would feel that the reason for my trade entry has been invalidated. I'd look at the ATR too to get a feel for the likely daily range so to make sure that I wouldn't get stopped out by a mere daily spike etc. |
Jun 29, 2010 3:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
i will firstly want the daily to close above 5900 (in gcad's case).
depending on how far away it closes from 5900, i will place a limit buy at say 5950.. if it closes just above 5900 by a few pips, i will buy at market, but very low lot size.
this is purely experimental for me. my daily closes in another 2.5 hous.
i am wanting to get back into cable but the danged thing isnt falling!
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Here are my relevant levels. Problem with GU is that we are near daily resistance level now but I would take a trade base don 4HR retrace to 1.5000 |
Jun 29, 2010 5:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
well my gbpcad daily candle closed at 5898. so wait and watch tomorrow. will now look for closes on h4 candle above 5900.
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Yep same here |
Jun 29, 2010 6:28pm
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Neutro (or anyone who knows H&S patterns better than me - which is most!)...is this a valid pattern?
If so then 8366 on DJI if neckline breaks?
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Jun 30, 2010 2:13am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Well LJ, check this post out...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1995
Unfortunately, not only did I not profit from it, I lost a lot of %... Being tight and thinking it would rise to the pip of the left shoulder made me not get into the down movement...
And yes, if the neckline breaks, buckle up, because as I can see it, declines are violent. |
Yeah I remember the post now. Just stumbled across it when looking atDollar Index chart |
Jun 30, 2010 3:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
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Yeah I did thanks
We have similar charts |
Jun 30, 2010 3:38am
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I've realised how poor my trading has been recently over the last few days and some things I am dong wrong.
1. I am giving too much attention to future potential scenarios rather than trading what is happening at the moment. I'm giving too much weight to YM.
For example I was waiting for price to retrace down to the 61 fib area and PPz of 9970 before looking for longs on FX and didn't want to take shorts until then as were were so close to the PPZ.
The area didn't hold and we fell down to 9800 PPZ area where we are now bouncing, but my point is that in the meantime I missed a whole good trend down. I look at the daily chart from yesterday of AU or AJ and I ask myself why was my only trade on these pairs a long for 15 pips! I need to keep it simple and start trading waht I see i.e. trading the trend that I see.
2. I'm not distinguish between potential long term trades compared to short term trades and I'm too 'scared' to give price some room and let a trade play itself out.
An example of this was EU yesterday where I was always going to be a buyer @ 1.2155 area...I did but then cut it with some pof my other xxx/usd trades when I felt the bounce in YM had come to an end. I had a 20 pip SL on this and price is now heading up to the 1.2250 former support area .
My win rate has been around 60-65% i.e. same as it has always been but my average winner is so low and much less than my average winner and I don't think I've had a %R > 1 trade for a long time.
So going forward I want to get back to doing the following:
1. Trading what I see not a scenario that might happen in the future.
2. Don't over analyse things
3. Use YM for potential entry and target areas but trading what current FX price is telling me comes a big first
4. focus on taking a manageable number of trades and trade/manage them accordingly.
5. Create a profile with as many tradable daily charts as possible...I'm talking all FX, futures and CFD's that Fxpro has to offer - there are countless PA setups on the daily TF's occurring all the time which are easy money in the bank
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Jun 30, 2010 4:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I like how you write your thoughts here, it's a big thing to do.
Ok, here's what I'm in since yesterday. EURCAD Long term play, I'm letting it SL or shooting for the moon. Targeting 1.3 then 1.35 and I'll add on a retrace of this daily BUOB (1.2780-1.2800).
Regarding the daily profile. With the VIX edging higher, longer term plays are a bit risky at the moment. Volatility is good for intraday trading, it hurts the longer term viewers since direction changes are frequent. (and still I'm in EC long term ) |
Here is my ECAD chart.
On the 4HR we've definitely got a series of HH / HL...though it might now be making a LH. I'd consider an entry long on pullback to the TL / PPZ area if I were trading this pair. Watch the falling daily TL and fibs area though.
With regards the daily profile this will be purely price action trading i.e. J16 style rather than trend trading and I'll enter two positions for each trade one to exit at FTA (as long as not too close...probably wouldn't enter if too close anyway) and one to move to break even at FTA and either trail or move down on a break of each PPZ area. I'll probably use a trade manager to manage the initial take profit @ FTA and move SL other position to BE+1 part of the trade. Trading price action setups on the daily time frame you have a very high chance of price going to the FTA ...I'd say >95% so I will be risking around 4-5% per trade and it's a very easy way of keeping the account ticking over with very minimal effort (looking at each chart once a day!).
with trend trading you have to know in advance at what price does your view on the trend change and then it's a case of looking for entries on pullbacks / breaks of support (if in downtrend) until price tells you otherwise...it can test your nerve though as drawdowns can occur deeper retracements etc....it's all very easy when you get a currency tanking like EU has been but the test is when you get a retracement and you see the profit decreasing...not letting this affect your basic view on the trend is the challenge. For example in a downtrend and would not have taken any longs if trading only this method but on GU I now consider this to be in the start of an uptrend...how long the up trend will last...who knows but I know at what level I would consider it to be in a downtrend and also what I'd be looking for if it cannot establish a trend i.e. staying out as it's in consolidation. |
Jun 30, 2010 10:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
Somehow I managed to turn a runner into a loser. And this is the best trade of the day. Going up and down with GU all day, turning +2R winners into losers, was the worst thing I done in my trading career so far. I'm so disappointed with myself, I can't even tell you.
I'm going to take a break from trading, at least this week and put all my thoughts and rules and everything in order so that I can come back better.
Good luck with your endeavors LJ, we'll talk here some time in the future. You can reach me by mail, of course.
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I see that's EUr/AUd...can't quite seem reason for your entries?
Take a break to clear your head, write down some rules and decrease the risk per trade and then come back that's what I would do. As well as keeping it basic and taking only the good setups that meet your criteria. I'm focused on taking only the really nice setups for the time being until the account starts growing again and my mindset changes into one where I'm winning and confident. |
Jun 30, 2010 10:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
It's the EURCAD that I showed you earlier. First entry was on the false breakout and second entry was on a M30 BUOB off PPZ, in the same direction as the daily BUOB with both stop losses moved below that PPZ. Got stopped out to the pip (well, stop was at 1.2815, low was 1.2814...) Like I said earlier, targeting 1.3 at first, 1.35 in the long run. 1.3 is now, but without me.
I'll take what you said into consideration. Thanks.
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I see now. That's what I mean about going back to basics...i.e. instead of trying to get an entry on the lower timeframe just play the daily BUOB and manage the trade well. Or on this occasion you could have put the SL just below te blue PPZ marked to lower your risk.
FTA was quite close...but the recent trend is quite bullish and EUR plus GBP will hold up better when equities falling so you'd expect it to go further and it's now hit the falling TL.
That's what I mean when things aren't quite clicking, go back to basics get your confidence back and then gradually get back into different setups...that's pretty much what I'm doing, no aggressive touch trade just pure and simple PA and trend trading based on 1HR, 4HR and daily TF.
My aim is to take 0-5 setups per day risking 1% on eaqch manage them well and achieve a high win rate then I'll increase risk to 2% and take more advanced setups too with lower risk (I'll still idenitfy touch trades etc and see what happens without a trade being placed). |
Jun 30, 2010 11:02am
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Missed the pion but took the BEOB
Had to turn to daily TF to look for targets. I have the following problem areas marked...1.6110,1.6070,1.6020
We've hit FTA so moving SL to BE (was toying at moving Sl to high of the current bar but we'll see what happens)
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Jun 30, 2010 11:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Missed the pion but took the BEOB
Had to turn to daily TF to look for targets. I have the following problem areas marked...1.6110,1.6070,1.6020
We've hit FTA so moving SL to BE (was toying at moving Sl to high of the current bar but we'll see what happens)
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These are the 3 problem areas on the daily TF |
Jun 30, 2010 11:28am
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Missed this one earlier...nice and simple breakout and pullback to retest and then kaboom. If you look closely on the 1HR you can see an IB...look at the %R on that beauty. Sometimes the simple straighfroward setups are the best.
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Jul 1, 2010 3:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Missed the pion but took the BEOB
Had to turn to daily TF to look for targets. I have the following problem areas marked...1.6110,1.6070,1.6020
We've hit FTA so moving SL to BE (was toying at moving Sl to high of the current bar but we'll see what happens)
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Got stopped out last nightn as moved SL too close too the consolidation that formed above 1.6100...literally got stopped out by 1 pip. TP was 1.6005. I would have added a further positions if still in the trade on the basis of the BEOB that formed. But you can see by playing the simple PA that formed on this pair would have been a great way of earning near a significant amount. |
Jul 1, 2010 3:56am
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Gutted I missed the potential breakout and pullback trades on E/AUd over the last two days. But watching the other pairs for potential breakouts.
Have a pending order on the G/NZD pin and have taken a long on ECAD.
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Jul 1, 2010 4:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Gutted I missed the potential breakout and pullback trades on E/AUd over the last two days. But watching the other pairs for potential breakouts.
Have a pending order on the G/NZD pin and have taken a long on ECAD.
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Stops moved to BE on ECAD long. Hard to see any sensible targets looking at 4HR and Daily...but as far as I'm concerned the trend is now up so will just leave these positions and see what happens. I have 1% of account at risk and am looking for a longer term trend trade so happy to leave it as a risk free trade now. |
Jul 1, 2010 5:04am
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Does anyone know how I can combine all of my accounts (including oanda) into one set of stats e.g. I use myfxbook at present but the problem with this is that it treats each account separately which isn't useful as each trade I place is in accordance with the total account size not the size of one individual account so I want something like myfxbook that will combine all the results together into one statement for analysis and tracking?
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Jul 1, 2010 7:54am
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ECAD Sl to BE+1
Took this pin off the former TL too
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Jul 1, 2010 9:08am
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Took this pin earlier...but first two trouble areas were pretty close so got nervous when price didn't explode in first hour and cut just above BE...hmmmm maybe a lack of patience.
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Jul 1, 2010 10:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
ECAD Sl to BE+1
Took this pin off the former TL too
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EUr and GBP strong in light of poor US data..unusual...is the moarket returning back to more normal economic drivers?
GBP/CAD stopped out at BE unfortunately, moved SL too soon. EUR/CAD up by 150pips. when price moves hard its always tough to know where to move SL to. there is no obvious target. I reckon I'll use a 30pip TSL. |
Jul 1, 2010 3:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
I guess you don't need me to tell you what that is on Gold...
I'm telling you LJ, we've been made for. We've been waiting for this single moment on Gold for I don't know how many days/weeks. This single day would have been a +100% day easy. Easy. But alas, it's not. (Talking about EU with that pin at 1.2200 (and the confirmation of the H&S hinting at 1.3000-1.3200), GU @ 1.4900 and EC..) I'm not saying that if I were in the trades I would have hold on until my beard grew, but this would have been an easy day if our confidence was not shatered by...
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It was fill your boots day but I left my boots at home. I only took 4 trades all day and made 3%, like you said 100% was possible if you were calm had patience and discipline.
Here are some of the setups I missed (but there were so many!). to be honest although I'm disappointed I know days like this will come along again and its just nice to see Pa working out as it should.
The big thing today was that EUR and GBP soared on US bad news. US data has been so bad recently but you'd expect USD to strengthen across the board...flight to safety and it didnt...that is a big shift in how the markets are working now IMO...back to normal markets?
I'm the same takes me weeks to finish a book...I haven't finished it yet (got 30 pages to go I think) but yeah it was a fun book to read and made me think about trend trading i.e. adding positions (so many trader are thinking about a potential exit when they are in a trade when they should be thinking of where they can add in further positions to an already winning trade) putting a test position out there to test the water and decreasing risk when not trading well. I wish I could corner the market like he did though. He very particular and methodical in his trade planning and thoughts, was very interesting to read. |
Jul 2, 2010 2:01am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by neutro
You're right about the strategy, but you're forgetting that after the fact analysis is always top notch (I know he had all that insight at 50 years or when he talked about his trades, but what was he really thinking at 15-20-25-30 years?) and that he lost his knickers more times than not. Betting all your money and then some on only one trade isn't really the way to go. Mainly because it's not ( ) and secondly because you need very tough guts.
Yesterday I had 6% of my account in a 20p SL trade. Guess what I did when I saw price lingering at +-2p?... |
My view is that he was very skilled in reading markets but he was a gambler in terms of his psychological mindset. He could lose money and have 100% confidence that he could go back into a bucket shop and start over and build an account back up again from scratch as he knew his market and had a set trading method that he knew worked and gave him a very high win rate...this is because he had spent years reading the tape and studying. This is what gave him the confidence to risk so much per trade, but he did suffer from greed at times and didn't cut losers when he should have etc.
That one trade where he waited and waited for the right opportunity and got in that showed great skills of discipline and patience...how many people could have the confidence in their trading that they could risk all their small account on one trade in order to build it into a big account....that takes guts but a lot of skill too. |
Jul 2, 2010 5:24am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
Yea that one where the guy told him that he could trade with just 500$ margin and Jesse waited for ages for his first perfect setup to come up for a start and he then made millions out of those 500$.
Whenever i blow an account and standing at 5$-10$,.... i ask myself,
Can i do what Jesse did?????????
It's impossible for me.
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yeah that's the one...that displayed a great amount of skill.
I could never do it...I couldn't have 100% confidence in any trade that I would risk my whole account! Even if the monetary amount is low it's still the all the trading capital you have and I just couldn't do it.
He displayed great patience and discipline and wasn't affected by fear and he just knew how to read the tape so well...all through years and years of studying it every day. There is a lot to be said in that whole part in itself IMO. |
Jul 2, 2010 5:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
What about the bp stock so low so low so low. I am following it day by day and give that thing a try when the ods are in favor....
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But how will you judge that the odds are in your favor...that is the big task...there are so many potential unknowns still fundamentally. I just can't see how you could judge that the worst is over in relation to the gulf spill and that it's worth going long. |
Jul 2, 2010 5:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Thanks guys.
Here some charts they always touch my eyes. by the way lj the thinks i mentioned are they usefull. i should also consider to read bank analysis at the start of the day not the technicall stuff but more the fundamental part to give you a view where they look at. And what i see a bit if you want feedback you do a bit to much it has been told you before bit overtrading you look for to manny setups and watch to much. At the end you miss the good 1s. But that's just my opinion.
ps. If you need some links of some good banks feel free...
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Yeah that is clear PPZ area and there is small 4HR pin and a 1HR pin bar too. But I expect the ,markets to be quiet until NFP so I'm not trading this morning.
yeah you are right I was trading too much but my results were very good from it...but then setups have dried up and PA become less reliable following flash crash. I've gone back to basics to trade PA, trend trading, breakouts and only touch trading on major PPZ areas with confluence. Getting back to near 100% weekly gains would fantastic but just focusing on taking high probability setups at the moment and making some gains before I start taking some more 'risky' setups.
I did take a look...it's on my list of things to look at in more detail (it's near the top now!) but yeah if you got links of a few banks that would be interesting.
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Jul 2, 2010 7:57am
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Busy doing other things this morning so not really looking at charts but have taken this. No real space below so looking for it to break the round number and TL hard.
EJ pins looked good too, would have taken those at the PPZ and UCHf boucing off a daily ppz and falling 1HR TL. Finally , sall 1 HR poin on E/AUD of round number and PPZ and in direction of trend. Would have take all of those if was watching charts at the time.
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Jul 5, 2010 10:28am
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Two trades from today:
1. GU short, P&V trade.
2. E/NZD long on pin bar
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Jul 5, 2010 4:45pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Oke wanna show you something about cot i have been studying a lot last months on fundies only macro and cot. The things i show are not a trade recomedation i also need to learn more but well i look at it and take it on real with a small possition but need patience for this stuff.
I also put a link of banks and more about the cot.
Cot:
http://tradeforexfundamentally.com/b...opportunities/
Banks and stuff i check before trading day nothing more if you haven't... |
I've read about COT before and I read the link above. I was always under the impression that COT data is released once per week in arrears and thus was really only useful for longer term trading? Where do yuo get your charts and the indicator from? |
Jul 6, 2010 9:59am
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Still taking it easy and only taking setups I consider to be low risk (ish).
two trades today so far:
1. Break of TL on E/NZD...took profit when the pin bar formed...missed the subsequent break of the PPZ.
2. CJ - a BUOB after testing the Tl as support, took profit at next PPZ.
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Jul 7, 2010 1:46am
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Went long on break of pin bar and long again when hitting the PPZ.
Daily BUOB's on AU, AJ, EU, CJ, YM etc....looking to get into these daily setups on the lower timeframes.
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Jul 7, 2010 7:04am
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Ran out of patience with these touch trades....
Similar sets on most majors and with YM sitting on support market is ranging between PPZ's |
Jul 7, 2010 2:33pm
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Forgot to pu a pending order on EAUD below the 4HR PPz with a tight SL as a way of getting into the daily BEOB with low risk.
I have a sever lack of patience in my trading at the moment..had some decent positions on AU,GJ, AJ and with YM at support and likely to test yesterday's highs at least I should have held them but ended up scalping a few pips here and there. I think 'fear' has crept in over the last few weeks and I need to get rid of it in order to trade properly.
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Jul 7, 2010 4:09pm
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A couple of other good setups from today:
1.G/AUD - daily BEOB...could have got in at a discount...pretty straightforward.
2. gold...divergence and a BUOB on 1HR chart
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Jul 8, 2010 2:49am
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Was hoping the daily UJ pin wouldnt trigger in Asia...oh well.
Ym went much further than I though it would, I favour a retracement back down to PPZ or TL and then back up to test 10050-100 area.
US Index is at a confluenced support area too so everything lines up for a bounce in USD.
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Jul 8, 2010 3:36am
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pin bar off PPZ...some trouble' just below but hopefully price has enough momentum to get to 1.5150 area
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Jul 9, 2010 1:20am
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YM and Oil in the 50/61 zone and daily PPZ with 1HR divergence. I'm expecting price to push a bit higher towards 61 fib (also a PPZ area) on YM before a retracement. I am cautious though as the market has been rising strongly on the back of not a lot of news and there is no US news to note out today either.
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Jul 9, 2010 1:25am
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Following on from previous post a couple of FX setups in line with YM 'forecast' move
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Jul 9, 2010 4:39am
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Trade from last night which took a while to get going...long on break fo pin.
also short EG, long UCHF and short AJ,AU and EU
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Jul 9, 2010 5:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolshades
are you looking at a likely long?
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Price is at round number,, PPZ and 50% fib fd recent upswing and we have big divergence on 1HR chart...all indicated price should head up....I'll wait for some PA though. |
Jul 9, 2010 6:24pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
How did this week wrap up for you LJ?
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Decided to restart my stats from beginning of July i.e. so I can't see my past poor performance and have a clear mind focusing on just trading what I know. Dwelling on the past too much can be a hinderance.
https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/real-account2/30664
I need to work on holding trades longer and catching a happy medium between taking some profit and holding trades...not quite mastered it yet as paying too much meaning to the absolute profit levels...really try hard to dis-associate myself from the profit in a trade etc and trying to focus on just trading what I see...sometimes it's a fine line between having a BE trade and catching a real runner...and I'm finding it hard at the moment to know when to hold and when to take profit. Still not back to the levels I was at towards the start of my journal but I'm more relaxed taking less trades and just focusing on formulating plans for the pairs I watch and wait for the setups to appear and trade them accordingly.
I'm developed a poor trait of becoming emotionally attached to a trade...I fear losing and I get tempted to take profit too soon...meaning I don't let winners runs as far as aI should and I cut losers too early...i.e. I don't give trades space and time to develop. I feel it's an ongoing struggle I have constantly, sometimes it surfaces and sometimes it retreats in the background, but once I can fully overcome these weaknesses that's when I'll make some super profits.
Wow that was much longer than the couple sentences you were probably looking for...lol!
How's things for you?
I still should be holding EU and GU / GJ shorts in theory... |
Jul 12, 2010 4:41am
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my view this morning as as follows...
USD Index is still at support levels, YM is at 61 fib and relatively minor 4HR PPZ which has held for now.
AUD is weak which is what you'd expect when risk is 'off the table' and GBP is very weak with CAD strong (following the unemployment data from the end of last week).
We will either see a drop back down towards 10,000 on YM or it will pause and rise higher towards 10250.
Never keen on trading on Monday's so on the sidelines until I get any clear PA or breaks of key support / resistance levels.
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Jul 12, 2010 10:30am
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Some trades from today so far:
GCHF 4HR BUOB and also an other entry on retracement back to 1HR PPZ. took profit far too early on the 1HR entry but took profit on BUOB at the PPZ marked.
EG - 4HR pin, made another error and lost paitence and took profit @ TL, it just hit my main target.
Also in daily I4B on AU with pending sell on AJ and took a loss on GJ 4HR BEOB.
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Jul 12, 2010 11:32am
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Took a touch trade on GU at PPZ with fib confluence..moved SL to BE when hit 1.5050 area and got stopped out before S&P put negative watch on UK and GBP plummeted...grrrr
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Jul 13, 2010 1:41am
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AU missed TP by couple pips...grrrr
Took a loss on SJ I4B but was also long based on 1HR pin with TP of 77.95 (took this on fxpro as cannot hedge on Oanda) and so they they pretty much cancelled each other out.
If YM for resistance holds @ 10150 then it should get up to the falling TL @ 10250. I'll be shorting YM from there together with selected FX pairs. Unfortunately I'm not around this afternoon and will not have access to charts so might have to miss out.
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Jul 14, 2010 1:55am
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Was out most of yesterday so looking at charts for firt time in 12 ours, not surprised equities rose again, they have been rising very fast on no news or expected news which suggests to me the bulls are out in force. US earnings season is a big driver of risk sentiment.
FTSE and Oil in particular are at good resistance areas IMO
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Jul 14, 2010 2:15am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
I'm keeping an eye on UJ in the upcoming Asian session for a short 88.5-55, stops above recent spike highs at 88.8, looking first to hit support around 88 and break down lower.
Thoughts, etc?
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It's in a short area now IMO. |
Jul 14, 2010 2:20am
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Lot's of PA on daily charts and USD Index too.
No space on the AUD PA setups but EU and EJ are interesting as they have broken TL resistance.
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Jul 15, 2010 2:34am
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Daily BEOB...breakout and retrace on 1HR...I love getting into daily setups with small risk. SL @ BE now...if it runs down then great but if it doesn't then moving on.
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Jul 27, 2010 6:35pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
How goes it LJ?
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Hi Sam
Everything is going ok...not really liking these choppy summer intraday markets and have had a few losses over last few days but account is still progressing ok.
Not been posting here anymore as well, the journal served its purpose. I learnt a lot about my trading and areas I needed to improve and now I just focus and concentrate on trading my plan...plus busy with a few other projects too so not got much time to post, but if anyone wanted my comment on a setup in line with my trading style I'd be more than happy to comment etc. here.
How's things for you? |
Sep 29, 2010 2:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thierry
Hi lovejoy, how are you doing? still profitable?
I like your trading style a lot.
Ive a question about the fibs, do you drawn them at the timeframe you trade or at higher frames like the weekly and daily.
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Hi Thierry,
I take a top down approach so I'll start by marking up PPZ, TL's and fibs from major sings on daily, weekly, monthly timeframes and then scroll down to the 4HR and 1HR. So yes I will use a daily fib on a 1HR chart...Hope that answers your question.
Trading was slow during the summer as PA doesn't make much sense at times during low liquidity sessions but things coming back to normal now.
How are things for you? |
Sep 29, 2010 2:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghettobuddha
Hey lovejoy,
I got a question, do you use the close of the bars or the high/lows to plot your ppz?
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Mainly the highs/lows but I will use both it depends on what makes sense as an obvious price flip area. |
Sep 29, 2010 3:13pm
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Since I'm here...setups from today...
1. UCHF - PPZ 50/61 fibs, 15pip SL, 4.2R potential gain
2. GCHF - first time back to broken support turned resistance + RN - 20pip SL, 5R potential gain.
3. EURGBP - BUOB at PPZ (also a daily BUOB too)...TP 0.8665 daily PPZ
4. NU - pin bar at daily PPZ with divergence, TP of previous resistance. Potential 0.8R gain
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Oct 26, 2010 12:44pm
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I'll occasionally post some setups on here, merely for learning purposes.
For me the setup of the day was Gold...it's all about the confluence at a very clear well defined PPZ. Former TL, clear PPZ, 61% fib retracement and 1st time back to this area (always a good reliable play for a touch trade IMO) ... put that all together and you have an area which has the ability to stop price in its track and reverse it. How far will it reverse, I have not idea and I don't pre-empt where it might/may go I'll just look at S/R areas i.e. potential trouble areas and react accordingly
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Oct 31, 2010 1:37pm
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For Danny...
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Oct 31, 2010 3:54pm
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Some touch trade setups from last week.
EG - clear daily PPZ...price broken down...1st tme back to the broek resistance is a great reliable touch trade setup. ETouch trade then the PA forms to confirm the likely future price direction.
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Oct 31, 2010 3:57pm
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YM - 1st time back to broken resistance, TL, PPZ, 61 fib confluence...there was little chance of price breakinh thorugh this brick wall...a sure indicator of how good the setup was is the speed of the rejection. This aresa acted as a barrier to price stopping it and comletely reversing it in it's tracks..tis is what you want from a touch trade...looking for areas of high confluence that have the potential to stop and reverse price in it's tracks.
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Nov 1, 2010 3:56am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
YM - 1st time back to broken resistance, TL, PPZ, 61 fib confluence...there was little chance of price breakinh thorugh this brick wall...a sure indicator of how good the setup was is the speed of the rejection. This aresa acted as a barrier to price stopping it and comletely reversing it in it's tracks..tis is what you want from a touch trade...looking for areas of high confluence that have the potential to stop and reverse price in it's tracks.
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...and if you strongly expected a jump in YM then it was fair toy say you could be expecting a weker JPY and USD...takea look at where the xxx.usd and xxx/jpy crosses were at the time YM hit this confluenced area...were there any technical setups to to support a weker USD and JPY |
Nov 1, 2010 3:58am
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UCHF was a great pair to trade all week.
Firstly the pin off a monthly PPZ, secondly the touch trade - 1st time back to broke ressitance with fib / TL oconfluence followed by some PA and then another pin off the monthly PPZ again.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Nov 1, 2010 5:26am
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Nov 1, 2010 5:27am
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One from this morning - 1st time back to broken PPZ add some confluence in the form of a 61fib + TL and you have a high probability touch trade setup.
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Nov 1, 2010 7:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Mark,
Where did enter in the first pin?@break pin or braek RN?
Thanks for posting some of your trades.
FX
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Break of the pin...the whole area is a monthly PPZ so too wide for a realistic touch trade so any bearish Pa and I'd be straight in and that's what happened - small pin but the location was superb. I didn't give any consideration to the RN to be honest for me it was just a monthly PPZ with a bearish pin...I was lookig for a sign / reason to short price in this area and that was it. |
Nov 1, 2010 7:51am
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EJ - turned out to be a BE trade - there was no follow through to the initial impuslive rejection from the touch trade area - a pin formed but couldnt break. The confluenced area still acted like it should - it absorbed the down move and pushed price back up hard...you then need some more buyers / buy orders to come in to take price back up higher , this never happened in this case and so it was a BE trade for me - I was willing to leave SL at BE once FTA was hit because of the pin that formed.
ANZD - weekly BEOB with a clear price flip area for price to retrace too to act as resistance...1st time back to this area after breaking it last week. 61fib confluence on the retrace touch trade taken, then I saw the 15min beob as a further sign and took that, then the 4hr pin which has now hit it's FTA.
This is how I really like to milk a whole move...if the opportunity presents itself a touch trade (or lower TF PA if I want to wait for the confirmation) followed by 1HR or 4HR PA to add a further position and ride out the move.
My entries are:
Touch trade - 1.2918 SL@ 1.2959
15min beob - 1.2908 SL@ 1.2930 (at this point my SL on the touch trade is moved down to 1.2930
4HR PA - 1.2876 SL@ 1.2930
FTA on 4HR PA 1.2825 (including 5 pip spread) - if profit taken now it would yield:
+2.27R
+3.77R
+0.94R
Total +6.98R
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Nov 1, 2010 1:31pm
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Summary of today's trades:
1. EJ - touch trade BE
2. EU - 1hr PA +2.85R
3. UC - 4HR BUOB -1R
4. EAUD - touch trade -0.45R
5. GBPCHF - 1HR PA +2R
6. ANZD - touchtrade, 15min PA, 4HR PA +6.98R
7. EG - 1HR PA +1.6R
TOTAL = +11.98R
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Nov 1, 2010 1:37pm
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Other trades I should have taken today:
1. EAUD - 1hr BEOB
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Nov 1, 2010 1:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Other trades I should have taken today:
1. EAUD - 1hr BEOB
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2. CADJPY - in a tight range, 1HR BUOB towarsd the bottom of the range |
Nov 1, 2010 2:01pm
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and 1 open trade:
- gold touch trade, TL, fibs, PPZ, RN and 1st time back broken former resistance.
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Nov 2, 2010 4:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Mark,
U/C trade -BOUB was formed like thrid touch broken PPZ and there was strong momentum down so quiet risky long in my view.(don't take personaly only my view and well after action so is easy be hero here).
How did you managed G/CH trade?
Thanks for posting your trades is great learning material with excellent charts nad comments.
Happy trading.
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I was looking at the broad daily price flip area...and saw a buob in this are and pulled the trigger (actually my order get hit by 1 pip! doh!). In retrospect the bar before the buob gave a big clue that this wasn't going to work out as this was the lowest close in this area since 18th October...see all those other spikes lower followed by a firm rejection of this area...this time we had a close below it...that was the signal that price was likely heading lower.
I took gchf n the area of the PPZ marked.
I actually ruined my 100% win rate record that I've had for 2 weeks yesterday. UC loss could have been avoided and EAUD wasn't the best touch trade setup either (I did relaise this at the time though) |
Nov 2, 2010 6:48am
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Not around much today so not that active today, but saw some decent setups so took them:
1. EU touch trade - got out at BE after FTA was hit
2. EAUD - BUOB @ PPZ
3. ANZD - touch trade , 61 fib, tl, ppz (remember have a weekly beob too)
4. GU - simple PA to FTA
Still in gold trade from yesterday.
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Nov 2, 2010 7:10am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
100%win rate in two weeks including touch trading?  .Thanks for answear.
Have a nice day and only green pips. |
Ha, yeah...was ruined yesterday...could have avoided the two losers too. Oh well it had to end at some point.
The way you 'includes touch trading' suggest that you perceive touch trading to be higher risk? Or that the setups are harder to trade?
My view on touch trading that if learned correctly and if the right setups are taken (just like with PA trading) then it is as easy and provides the same high probability setups as with PA trading but the big bonus of on average a much higher %R...plus more often than not it will lead onto PA which provides you an opportunity to take the PA trade having a guaranteed winner from the touch trade in the bag already.
The YM setup from last week and the gold setup from yesterday were IMO very high probability setups in that there was a very low chance of a reaction not occuring at these areas. Price won't always run on and on...some will act like EU today or EJ yesterday...you'll get the initial impulsive reaction but no follow through. Others will act like ANZD yesterday with a touch trade turning into PA and continue down for a decent %R winner. |
Nov 2, 2010 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Not around much today so not that active today, but saw some decent setups so took them:
1. EU touch trade - got out at BE after FTA was hit
2. EAUD - BUOB @ PPZ
3. ANZD - touch trade , 61 fib, tl, ppz (remember have a weekly beob too)
4. GU - simple PA to FTA
Still in gold trade from yesterday.
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Today's results
1. EU - BE
2. GU +0.33R
3. ANZD - profit taken at main PPZ as show earlier +5.2R
4. EAUD - holding onto this want to see how the daily closes as it could close as a daily pin above an important ppz (see chart)
5. Gold - exited when the rising TL broke +1.8R
Wasn't around around most of the afternoon...not that price seems to have moved much ahead of FOMC tomorrow.
TODAY'S RESULT +7.33R |
Nov 2, 2010 1:52pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Well I understand touch trading like highier level of trading but also touch trading(when u do right way like u do)give u edge.You are in all ready and others still waiting for PA.So after if you get right PA and you are all ready in,thats mean you have another conflunce even if that signal PA doesn't work,you have time to manage trade and I think this...
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Yeah PA forms after the initial reaction has occurred and the basis of PA trading is that this momentum that caused the PA will continue. Of course it's the location that causes price to form the PA in the first place so if you know how to spot locations that will likely go on to form PA then you are getting into a trade at the start of a potential move.
Spotting the location takes practice but it's just all about clear higher timeframe PPZ's with supporting confluence...areas that have the potential to act as a brick wall to price and reverse it. If traded correctly you should get the same high win rate as you do with PA trading but with the obvious big %R benefits.
I used to take near 100 trades per week taking every PPZ etc...the market was more suited to it back then, but in a normal market you will get burned if you blindly touch trade on every S/R level you see...spotting the one's which give the highest probability of reversing price is key. My win rate used to be 60-70%, now it is 85%+ and my %R is pretty decent too. |
Nov 3, 2010 7:50am
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Likely to be a slow day today cos of FOMC...I don't want to be in any USD or JPY correlated trades at this time so will only take few trades today.
2 trades today so far:
1. Second position on EAUD - 2HR BUOB - entered on the pullback @1.4048
2. Oil - simple breakout and retrace - I always look for PA on the retrace as confirmation the former resistance will act as support (I use any TF from 5min upwards) and thus entered on the 15min BUOB.
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Nov 3, 2010 11:00am
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Took profit at FTA on oil at 85.
Still in EAUD and it's starting to slowly move.
2 more trades for today:
- EG - 1st time back to broekn resistance with fib confluence
- GJ - daily PPZ, 61 fib and TL + RN.
I'm at BE on GJ.
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Nov 3, 2010 11:39am
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1 more trade for today
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Nov 3, 2010 2:52pm
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Well that was fun lol!
Okay trades for today:
1. GJ touch trade - exited at 130.55 minro support before FOMC +1.57R
2. NU touch trade - exited at 1HR double top prior to FOMC +1.2
3. Oil - breakout + pullback and 15min PA +2.7R
4. EG touch trade exited @ 0.8750 during FOMC +2R
5. EAUD - my TP got hit @1.4150 (damn FOMC spread!) on both trades +10.98R
TOTAL +18.45R
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Nov 3, 2010 2:57pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Lovejoy nice to see you back in the journal again.
I was wondering according the touch trading you enter right away(agressive)?
And where you consider best place for the stops?
According moneymanagement do you risk for example on every positions 1% let's say thats your maximium don't know what it is for you.
Or do you also have some you risk 0.3 or 0.5%.
Oke last question according targets you specify targets if so what points next ppz? or do you scale out and move stop and if broken scale in? or do you use trailing stop?
Thanks mate... |
Hi Ingmar - hope you're welll
Okay answers as follows:
1. I use a set % for nearly all my trades, currently 1% but will likely increase soon.
2. I base my stops at a level where I think on average if price gets there the setup would be proven to have not worked out. I base this on either an obvious PPZ / bar highs/low or a discretionary figure depending on the pair's volatility. Normally it's around 25-35 pips. There will be times I get spiked out but the setup works but with this figureit will mean over the long term I will maximise my %R.
3. The same methods I use to enter trades I use to exit trades so PPZ, PA confluenced areas etc. I don't use trailing stops but sometimes do take partial profit and move to BE and leave the rest to see if it will run etc. |
Nov 3, 2010 3:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Mark,
Why u didn't plot fib from prior swing high?(trade G/J)
And when u do touch trading do u try put tight Sl and leave it or little be bigger and try to get out early if you see price is going too much against to you.I mean often in this areas we can see spikes which can takes our SL with only a few pips.
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I've pretty much answred the SL question in my previous post...I try not to be discretionary when in a trade i.e. use a large Sl then exit early as there is too much of a danger that I'll cut it for the wrong reasons (tradng with the emotions etc), thus once I set a trade I will leave it to hit SL or get to my FTA unless something has changed within the reasons I took the trade in the first place.
With regards GJ there was 3 swings that fibs could have been drawn from IMO...I already had the TL and PPZ marked then put the fibs on when price got near...this was the only swing where the fibs lined up with these areas...thus it was supporting confluence at this area. I would have taken the trade without the fibs as the fibs were the weakest confluence (as there were three viable swings you could draw them from etc.) |
Nov 4, 2010 2:27am
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Took a touch trade on UCHf last night @ 0.9700 sL @ BE now...based on this chart.
I had to get out of my NU,EG, GJ touch trades yesterday before FOMC (to avoid spikes / slippage) which was a tad annoying considering where pirces are now on these.
First week of the month is by far my least favourite...too much economoic data released means you get lots of static markets followed by periods of whipsaws
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Nov 4, 2010 6:52am
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A very quiet morning so far.
Got stopped out at BE on UCHF touchand went in again at the 61 fib. Also short GCHf based on the 1hr BEOB and took an advanced entry at the obvious s/r area on a retrace.
Getting some really high spreads on oanda I noticed this morning on CHF pairs 5 pips on UCHF and ECHF compared to the usual 1-2.5...odd.
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Nov 4, 2010 7:06am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
A very quiet morning so far.
Got stopped out at BE on UCHF touchand went in again at the 61 fib. Also short GCHf based on the 1hr BEOB and took an advanced entry at the obvious s/r area on a retrace.
Getting some really high spreads on oanda I noticed this morning on CHF pairs 5 pips on UCHF and ECHF compared to the usual 1-2.5...odd.
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I cut GCHf as it closed above the s/r area and formed a BUOB in the process...as soon as I do price falls back down lol. |
Nov 4, 2010 12:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Hi Lovejoy,
Thanks for your answers i am doing fine aswell atleast some good consistency in my trading only my win rate is not so good yet 50% so need more accuracy in that with good m&m i make the money at the moment.
Here is a touch trade atkleast i think it is thats why asking you. took it on demo.
Wonder if you will see this 1 as a good 1?
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I missed an opportunity on EG today...look at the daily chart...I was looking for a touch trade near the 61 fib but it didn't quite get high enough. A 1hr pin then formed which for some reason I completely missed.
Like FxFighter said, the best confluence would have been the daily PPZ and 61 fib...but there is a TL and 50% fib in the way first and this TL looks good as price is in a well defined channel. There is no PPZ as such so I didn't take this as a touch trade (I always need a horizontal PPZ as the basis for a touch trade) but I could see it working out due to how well defined the current channel is. |
Nov 4, 2010 1:17pm
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A very slow boring day.
Took 3 trades today:
1. UCHf - touch trade - BE
2. UCHF - touch trade - BE
3. GCHF - PA -0.77R
TOTAL -0.77R
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Nov 4, 2010 6:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hehe its look my turning point almost to the pip works ) I loved it.No I am not in this trade .I don't trade in this time but I love thing that price really turns in this point.I don't expect will go too much north b/c on lower TF you can see momentum south is much stronger.(It is look like price is in another turning point south lol).
Thanks Mark.Your posts give me some light in this subject. What I said before I hope I am on the right start line in this level of trading. |
Yes got the bounce perfectly...and you got 1HR PA after the touch trade :-)
I didn't take this cos of the time as well as I rarely trade after European close.
Also looking at the weekly chart this is why I was annoyed at missing the original touch trade short - weekly BEOB and it potentially offerd an entry at a discount if it breaks and pushes lower (just like the ANZD one did).
Lastly on the 1HR TF the former TL might prie resistance now.
But this is how a good touch trade should work...the confluence should be strong enough to stop and cause a reaction to price in this area...enough to be able to get your SL to BE. Sometimes price will come back dwon in it's original direction...other times it just keep going up up and away and you get a very big winner....like ANZD would have been if I'd held onto it longer. |
Nov 5, 2010 3:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hehe its look my turning point almost to the pip works ) I loved it.No I am not in this trade .I don't trade in this time but I love thing that price really turns in this point.I don't expect will go too much north b/c on lower TF you can see momentum south is much stronger.(It is look like price is in another turning point south lol).
Thanks Mark.Your posts give me some light in this subject. What I said before I hope I am on the right start line in this level of trading. |
Price is going up nice now. It tested the fromer TL came back a bit and now soared through.
My SL would have been below the bars to the left.
Notice that on every TF from 5min upwards you got some PA confirmation too after the touch trade.
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Nov 5, 2010 9:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Yep was good.
Did you do touch trading short?I think was nice spot.Price come back first time to broken Ppz,line up with Fib.Hm any other conflunces?
I've got bloody flu so I am taking whole day very easy ).
Happy trading. |
Very nice setup...I actually somehow missed this one.
I took GJ last night (Sl hit at 131). Had to pop out this morning and in that time missed 3 other touch trade setups.
1. UC 1st time back to broken former support
2. EJ - daily PPZ + fibs
3. ECHF - TL + daily PPZ + fibs |
Nov 6, 2010 2:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
Hi Mark,
What about this one?
Price break my monthly ppz(red line)and come back frist time exactly right to do pip.
So confluences for this trade:
-Monthly Ppz ,price come back first time
-Fib 62 and 50 from dif.swing point line up
-TL's
-momentum down(trend down).
I have question about TL.Which TL you think is valid or have more value in your view?
Black is made with line chart(is pointing axactly @PPz)but this TL Is made from closed price so no any wicks.
Orange TL was broken several times is it still valid?
and second orange one which respect...
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For me this was a very good touch trade setup. I would have actually taken this trade without any other supporting confluence to the PPZ.
I've attached some charts showing how I would have analysed the setup (I've removed all S/R areas apart from the one we are talking about) - not sure where you get the monthly PPZ - for me it's a daily PPZ.
'1st time' back to former S/R areas after price has moved away from it having broken it for a while are very good setups in itself...especially if it's a good strong daily PPZ like this one was. The fact you had fib confluence would just make the trade setup even more attractive.
My SL would have been about 5 pips above the 61 fib, although looking at the daily chart the safest place would have probably been above 0.9700...but I would be have been more aggressive with my SL.
My FTA would have been 0.9600 S/R area and the it hit a more minor S/R area before reversing...though with EU showing signs of weakness the warning signs for UCHF reversing back up were there.
With regards TL's these are probably the most discretionary types of S/R levels for traders. I mean anyone who uses S/R zones properly would have marked that daily PPZ but TL's are more discretionary amongst different traders. Personally I use TL's to connect bar highs / closes that closes resemble the direction of price in the current trend, sometimes this will be bar highs like the one on UCHF other times it might connect some bar highs etc. But TL's really are there just to show the direction of price, so if you look at the 4HR chart I woujld quickly draw three TL's to show the trend direction...sometimes price will respect a TL connecting bar highs very well and you can use them as reliable areas to trade off especilally when PA forms but other times a TL might get broken but the trend will still resume...this is why I don't give as much weighting to TL's as I do horizontal S/R zones...unless a TL is being very well respected by price.
Thus when trying to get into a trade in the direction of the trend I'll use a loose TL to define the direction of price and then look for strong S/R areas to take a trade - confluenced areas for touch trades or PA off weaker PPZ's for confirmation.
Hope that makes sense.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Nov 6, 2010 5:18pm
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Nov 7, 2010 11:55am
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I took 2 trades on friday - 4HR pin on AU which ended up a BE result and the GJ touch trade for which my SL was hit @ 131 for a 2.5R win.
Summary for the week
22 trades
86% win rate (I count BE as a winner)
+39.49R
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Nov 9, 2010 2:30am
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An example of what I would consider a great touch trade which I'm in.
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Nov 9, 2010 8:43am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi Lovejoy, just find out this nice thread. You have done very well and really like the way you trade. Btw, what is your TP and SL on the AUDNZD trade above? I was in this trade also. I enter at 1.2916, initial SL was 1.3 but now move to 1.2937 and my TP at 1.2870.
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I'm cursing myself on this trade as I closed it on the retrace1.2890 for +1.4R. Wasa dumnb decision as the PPZ is a daily / weekly PPZ so I should have just moved to BE and left it.
My entry was @ 1.2925 with 25 pip SL.
We are at some minor trouble now so I'd be moving to BE, then I'd be targeting 1.2820 as some potential take profit area...but if it was heading there it will forma daily pin so I'd be trying to keep some on the table for 1.2800 and then if it breaks this 1.2700.
Lets see how it pan out but if it were me and I hadn't been to hasty to close it I would be at BE now and seeing if price can get down to 1.2820 area then I'd either take partial profit or move SL down to above 1.2860 |
Nov 9, 2010 10:47am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi Lovejoy, what is your reason for 25 pip SL? Do you always use 25 pips SL for touch trades or just for this trade? I'm out @ 1.2870 and now it kinds like going back up. Hopefully it will going down again on the closing time and form a very nice PB as you said then we'll have a chance for second entry
Btw, do you take CADJPY trade? |
Because it's a touch atrade at a confluenced area I put my stop at a price that if hit it would likely mean the confluecned area has been broken to the upside in this case. So for me on this trade 25 pips would do it looking at the 4HR Trade.
This is the 1st trade in a while that I've mucked up a bit with the management, if it were me I'd still like to be in this trade.
No I didn't take CJ touch trade - I presume this is teh setup you were referring too? I'm long AJ from this morning so wont be shorting a yen pair whilst long another.
If I did take it I would have been stopped out at BE..though the area still might hold as resistance.
Another reason why I wouldnt be keen is because of where UJ is...i.e. near ish range lows...something's got to give on this pair soon and I wouldn't be comfortable shorting a yen pair if UJ was at or near it's lows. |
Nov 9, 2010 10:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Because it's a touch atrade at a confluenced area I put my stop at a price that if hit it would likely mean the confluecned area has been broken to the upside in this case. So for me on this trade 25 pips would do it looking at the 4HR Trade.
This is the 1st trade in a while that I've mucked up a bit with the management, if it were me I'd still like to be in this trade.
No I didn't take CJ touch trade - I presume this is teh setup you were referring too? I'm long AJ from this morning so wont be shorting a yen pair whilst long another.
If I...
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Actually looking at it when price came second time around it does look better...SL not far above 61 fib and UJ is at resistnace...still passing on it but it could well work out. |
Nov 9, 2010 11:05am
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I only took one trade yesterday and that was on EG from 0.8650 which I closed uot for small win @ 0.8620 earlier for +0.36R.
Trades from today:
1. ANZD - touch trade +1.4R
2. EG - 1HR PA - BE
3. ECAD - touch trade then 1HR pin +3.08R
4. EU - 4HR PA +0.32R (closed when 1hr bearish pin formed)
5. GU - 4HR PA +0.69R
6. EG - touch trade - BE
7. ECAD - touch trade - another attempt at the daily support leel holding as resistance....stop at BE now
8. AJ - touch trade (UJ, EJ, GJ and AJ were all at daiily or 4HR support...low chance of them all smashing down without a reaction 1st) close half +82, rest at BE (81.50) +1.25R
9. ECHF - touch trade - BE
TOTAL +7.82 (still in half of AJ and full ECAD position)
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Nov 9, 2010 11:06am
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Last one.
Finishing early today as my copy of the new COD is arriving shortly...so I'll be on getting stuck into that for next few hours!
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Nov 9, 2010 1:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi Lovejoy, actually i was talking about going long on CJ. My chart below show my entry, it was @80.63, before the pin was formed. I thought my stop @80 was gonna get hit but price reversed and formed a beautiful pin. I agree with you that it's time to go long on yen pairs. I was looking to long AJ too @ 81.77 but didn't get hit.
And did you close your long GU? It reverse on the third touch. I really kicking myself on this one. I short @1.6170 but got nervous when price was stalling at 1.6150 and those two pins hanging around. Enough for today...
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Yeah I closed it around that level.
What was the reason for your long CJ trade?
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Nov 10, 2010 3:11am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
I only took one trade yesterday and that was on EG from 0.8650 which I closed uot for small win @ 0.8620 earlier for +0.36R.
Trades from today:
1. ANZD - touch trade +1.4R
2. EG - 1HR PA - BE
3. ECAD - touch trade then 1HR pin +3.08R
4. EU - 4HR PA +0.32R (closed when 1hr bearish pin formed)
5. GU - 4HR PA...
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Closed remaining AJ @ 82 +1.25R
Closed ECAD @ 1.3860 +3R
Revised total for yesterday +12.07R |
Nov 10, 2010 3:52pm
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Todays' trades.
1. ECHF - touch trade @ the TL, fibs, ppz - BE
2. UJ - 4HR BUOB - exited at the PPZ which is a daily one +1.55R
3. ECAD - 4HR BEOB - entered on the retrace to 1.3840( a daily PPZ) and exited at the daily PPZ marked. +4.2R
4. EAUD - 1HR BUOB - BE
5. EG - 4HR BEOB - stop is now above the bar high marked
6. GU - touch trade - PPZ+fibs and RN..came very close to being sotpped out on this...took profit at area marked +1.86R
7. EJ - 15min PA at confluenced area - wasnt comfortable taking touch trade considering the hard move down so scrolled down to find some PA on 15min TF - at BE on this and just gonna leave it overnight
8. GJ - breakout, retrace + PA - see daily TF chart for the breakout area - same as EJ leaving it at BE overnight
TOTAL +7.61R in closed positions today.
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Nov 10, 2010 3:55pm
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Cont...
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Nov 10, 2010 3:58pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
I know it's a little late in the day for you LJ, but what are your thoughts on the following GU confluence?
Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
I think it looks better ont he 4HR. Yep I'd take this setup every time (well almost!) but not taking it now as I dont take trades this time of day because of the lack of momentum at this time of day. For touch trades I like to take them during European trading and US morning mostly because I'm lokking for a strong rejection of the confluenced area.
But as a technical setup it's a good one IMO. |
Nov 10, 2010 4:02pm
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and here is a touch trade I missed earlier.
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Nov 10, 2010 4:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mck6206
What do you mean by R when you describe profit and also what do you mean by PPZ and BEOB? thanks.
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R means x times risk...so 4R is 4x the amount I risked. As it happens I risk 1% for each trade so 4R means 4%.
PPZ means Price Pivot Zone - it's a term from the J16 Price Action thread and basically is an area of support/resistance which has flipped price in the past.
BEOB means Bearish Outside Bar and is a price action setup whereby the high and low of the bar is greater than the high-low of the preceding bar with a bearish close...like the EG and ECAD trades I took today. |
Nov 11, 2010 3:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ihor
Hello mate!
Can you describe your trading routine?
How can you monitor so many pairs simultaneously?
Do you draw PPZ for every pair and make some alerts for a specific price levels?
It's fantastic that you can trade so many setups in one day.
Do you still maintain an account at myfxbook?
Thank you for so great thread!
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Hiya, no I dont keep an account at myfxbook as I dont use MT4 for my trades anymore just for charts.
I have 3 profiles, one has USD, JPY, CHF pairs (12 pairs) and secondary has some minors and third one has gold, EP, YM and UD crude oil. All my PPZ's etc are marked up and I change them as and when price moves then its just a case of watchng all day and waiting for price to come to one of the confluenced areas or form PA etc. Thus I know which pairs / setups I'm looking for in advance i.e. when price is approaching an area of interest...so this wont be on all pairs at same time so in effect I am really only watching few pairs at a time for some trades. |
Nov 11, 2010 4:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Todays' trades.
1. ECHF - touch trade @ the TL, fibs, ppz - BE
2. UJ - 4HR BUOB - exited at the PPZ which is a daily one +1.55R
3. ECAD - 4HR BEOB - entered on the retrace to 1.3840( a daily PPZ) and exited at the daily PPZ marked. +4.2R
4. EAUD - 1HR BUOB - BE
5. EG - 4HR BEOB - stop is now above the bar high marked
6. GU - touch trade - PPZ+fibs and RN..came very close to being sotpped out on this...took profit at area marked +1.86R
7. EJ - 15min PA at confluenced area - wasnt comfortable taking touch trade considering the hard move down so scrolled...
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Closed my GJ and EJ longs this morning when a 1he BEOB formed on EJ. Gained 2.12R and 2.18R on these (EJ, GJ).
Likely to be quiet today cos of the various public holidays and lack of data release so I'll be cautious on trades today. |
Nov 11, 2010 2:54pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Closed my GJ and EJ longs this morning when a 1he BEOB formed on EJ. Gained 2.12R and 2.18R on these (EJ, GJ).
Likely to be quiet today cos of the various public holidays and lack of data release so I'll be cautious on trades today.
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Today's trades as follows:
1. NU - touch trade - took profit maybe a bit early at 0.7800 +1.13R
2. EU - 4HR BEOB - I entered on the obvious retrace to broken support - took profit on this and AU trade at FTA (1.3640) cos of where YM is so not expecting any follow through on these just yet. +1.32R
3. AU - 4HR BEOB - again entered on a retrace and exited at FTA - 0.9965 +0.71R
4. YM - touch trade - still in this trade.
Thus including the EJ and GJ trade I closed out earlier today's total is +7.46R |
Nov 12, 2010 1:12am
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My SL on YM got hit at BE over night. A bit frustrated about gold, had a pending order to short the 4HR BEOB but when it hadn't triggered 2 bars later I removed it before I went to bed...it triggered overnight and has already hit the FTA.
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Nov 12, 2010 1:14am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ale73a
Thank you for your thread, Lovejoy...better than 1000 books |
Thanks, glad you find it useful. |
Nov 12, 2010 7:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi LJ, same here. I short gold @ 1407.5 from daily BEOB expected a big move down to 1365. It moved down to 1383 but quickly retrace (which I expected) back to 1417 then formed 4H BEOB. I close my position when I saw price stalled on the way down and unable to break the BEOB. But today price moves as I expected, damn |
Yes was a bit frustrating...personally I dont like leaving pending trades open over night and dont like it when a PA setup hasnt activated within a couple of bars.
Gold sure is making ahrd work of breaking and holding below the 1383-5 area....though I do think price will head down today on this, there is not setup for me to be able to short it...maybe a breakl below with a retrace to 1383-5 to act as resistance with some smaller TF (5-15min) PA...that would do it for me.
Missed this setup cos I was asleep earlier...was waiting for this to happen and gutted I missed it.
If I were awake I would have taken the touch trade then the pin the formed too. I would have taken half profiut at the resistance area we are at noe and be at BE on the remainder. |
Nov 12, 2010 9:31am
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Trades for today so far:
1. GJ touch trade - 1st time back to PPZ -1R
2. UJ touych trade - 1st time back to broekn former resistance - came close to getting stoped out, SL @ BE now.
3. AJ - touch trade - exited @ 81.70 PPZ +4.8R
4. GJ - touch trade - exited @ 132.80 +2.53R
5. CJ - touch trade - exited @ 81.60 PPZ area +3.8R
6. EU - 4HR BUOB - SL is not @ 1.3695 and I'm targeting 1.3800 as TP
All the yen pairs were lining up at support and YM was also at support which gave good confleunce for these setups.
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Nov 12, 2010 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Trades for today so far:
1. GJ touch trade - 1st time back to PPZ -1R
2. UJ touch trade - 1st time back to broekn former resistance - came close to getting stoped out, SL @ BE now.
3. AJ - touch trade - exited @ 81.70 PPZ +4.8R
4. GJ - touch trade - exited @ 132.80 +2.53R
5. CJ - touch trade - exited @ 81.60 PPZ area +3.8R
6. EU - 4HR BUOB - SL is not @ 1.3695 and I'm targeting 1.3800 as TP
All the yen pairs were lining up at support and YM was also at support which gave good confleunce for these setups.
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Decided to take profit @ 1.3700 on EU, also forgot about an EG touch trade I took earlier. So it was +0.51R on EU. On EG I've moved SL down to 0.8505 and will either take profit before market close or leave open over the weekend. With UJ SL is still @ BE (82) and I'll do the same as EG.
Thus (presuming I dont take profit on EG and UJ) todays result is +10.64 and the weekly result is +37.78R |
Nov 12, 2010 12:27pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
Hi, LJ! Great theme! Took a good trade! Reason: PA, PPZ, RN, 50% Fibo.
LJ, when you take touch trade and when waiting for PA confirmation?
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Nice trade, I would have taken that and the touch trade on this pair as I mentioned.
I take touch trades at areas of confluence...mostly at higher timframes PPZ and fibs confluence (50-61). If it's first time back to a borken PPZ area then thats even better and if it has more confluence eg. TL, divergence confluence with YM, Gold or oil etc then even better.
Whether I take a touch trade also depends on how wide the PPZ is, I mean if there is no obvious place for the SL because the PPZ is so wide then I'll wait for some PA on mostly the 1HR or 4HR TF but sometimes lower.
Another time when I might not take the touch is if the market is fast moving i.e. driven by some news release |
Nov 12, 2010 12:29pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Yes was a bit frustrating...personally I dont like leaving pending trades open over night and dont like it when a PA setup hasnt activated within a couple of bars.
Gold sure is making ahrd work of breaking and holding below the 1383-5 area....though I do think price will head down today on this, there is not setup for me to be able to short it...maybe a breakl below with a retrace to 1383-5 to act as resistance with some smaller TF (5-15min) PA...that would do it for me.
Missed this setup cos I was asleep earlier...was waiting for this...
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It's frustrating to be right but not have any money to show for it! |
Nov 12, 2010 2:58pm
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Decided I would take profit on EG and UJ afteral
EG - exit @ 0.8482 +1.89R
UJ - exit @ 82.55 +1.1R
Weekly total 30 trades, 29 winners +40.77R
A good week results wise but I should have gained a lot more. I was in and out of EG and ECAD all week when I should have backed my strong convictions of shorts on these pairs and held onto my original postions from earlier on in the week and just added more in.
Also I took profit far too soon on my USD shorts yesterday. Learning when to hold onto trades for the medium term(few days) or give trades some more room / time to materialise is something I need to work on.
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Nov 12, 2010 4:02pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
LJ, +40.77R means 40.77*risk? if you risking 1% per trade, you gain 40.77%? am i right?
Seems like good touch trade (see below)
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yeah that's right. I do risk roughly 1% per trade too.
Not sure where you have your TL's drawn from but I don't see any TL that I would have on my chart, but yes I would certainly expect a 'reaction' here if we were in a liquid trading market time (i.e. not Friday evening). Though looking at the trend this might just be a pause in the uptrend. |
Nov 13, 2010 3:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
Thanx for answer... but i have extra question))
Why you didnt take pinbars on daily 10november??
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Welleven if I did want to take the pin on EU it didn't break so the trade wouldn't have been activated.
But I wouldnt' have taken it for the following reasons:
My bias has been strongly short for the Euro and look at the preceding days bars - strongly bearish bars so in order to stop and reverse price in its tracks you're gonna need a super confluenced location to do it.
Is this location it - not IMO it's not. Look at where the bar closes and what it's heading into on my chart (zoom out on a daily to see teh area more closely - I've attache a 4HR to so you can see what I'm looking at) - in my opinion it's heading straight into resistance and thus just looking at the location of the bar (yes a PPZ but nothing special), the bar itself, what is just above it and what it's trying to reverse (basically 3 days of strong bearish action) I'd say it's got little chance of doing that. But it didn't break so there was no trade anyway.
For AU the pin did break but agani I did not consider this a great setup. You can see again that the close of the bar was poor and you can see it even better on the 4HR chart it basically closed below resistance.
Plus for me the whole market sentiment has shifted to long USD and increasing risk aversion this week so I ddn't see this changing overnight so didnt even consider a long off the daily charts on USD pairs but both of those setups from a technical perspective were not great setups IMO.
Look at where A|U is now that is a better location for a long and if you look at the 4HR chart you can see that price did in fact react and bounce at this area but there was no follow through (so if I had taken it it would have been a BE trade) which shows the strength of the bears at the moment.
Hope that helps. |
Nov 13, 2010 6:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Welleven if I did want to take the pin on EU it didn't break so the trade wouldn't have been activated.
But I wouldnt' have taken it for the following reasons:
My bias has been strongly short for the Euro and look at the preceding days...
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Notice after the pin had formed on AU price formed a daily continuation BEOB which closed below the support and RN. This was a good daily PA setup and it retraced to exactly where you'd expect it to before falling to the next FTA (retraced back to the RN previous support to test as resistance). Scratching my head tihnking about how I managed to miss that easy obvious trade hmmmm. |
Nov 15, 2010 5:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
What do you think about this pinbar? I dont understand well about PPZ... i wanted to take this trade, but it seems to me, that price break PPZ and now PPZ work like support. And else one reason no take trade, that last fer day was very strong uptrend
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Personally I passed on this trade because the close of the pin bar was not below the PPZ. I want to trade away from PPZ's and not into them and thus because of the close it was an easy pass for me.
Also, I don't like to trade that much on Monday's. Monday is often a very slow, choppy day with lack of momentumk so I'm more caituos that normal. |
Nov 15, 2010 5:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zentrader108
Hi Mark,
Firstly please let me introduce myself. I?m a fellow Brit but am now living in Australia. I recently resigned from an investment bank to trade prop on my personal account. While I wouldn?t really say I?m a FF junky I have closely followed your blog while it was active? actually a little disappointed its fallen off the radar but can understand the time constraints.... and good to see some new posts recently!!
Anyway I have a trade I thought you might like?. (I?m more of a fundamentalist turned chartist? which is why I like your blog)...
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I've got a pending short order on the break of the weekly pin on Silver with 25 the obvious 1st target area. For me I wouldnt take a touch trade at this area. There is a PP| at the RN with maybea TL depending on when/if price gets there but I'll be waiting for some PA (I don't use any fibs apart from 50/61) as I've never traded Silver before so I dont like taking touch trades on pairs that I dont know well.
I only take touch trades that I trade regullarly as you do built up a a sense / feel for the pairs and setups that will and wont work out. |
Nov 15, 2010 5:25am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Personally I passed on this trade because the close of the pin bar was not below the PPZ. I want to trade away from PPZ's and not into them and thus because of the close it was an easy pass for me.
Also, I don't like to trade that much on Monday's. Monday is often a very slow, choppy day with lack of momentumk so I'm more caituos that normal.
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You could also consider this a touch trade long setup too...put a fib from the recent swing high/low...combined that with the RN/PPZ and you've got a valid touch trade setup IMO. |
Nov 15, 2010 12:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zentrader108
And that?s why I like your blog.... I hadn?t even seen the weekly pinbar ? as I said I am a fundamentalist first but charting is the best prescription to have in your glasses.
I have to say while initially it moved nicely in asia morning a wall st journal article and $ strength has spoiled some of the fun.... It left me a bit concerned how it gave up the ground so easily so have hedged about half of the dollar component with DXZ and eur/usd... we may both make money!
[font=Calibri][size=3]Anyway...
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My performance is a result of the following:
1. a few years very hard work at this business;
2. learning what techniques suit my personality, becoming very proficient at knowing what setups to take (by lots and lots of backtesting and forward testing) so it beomes second nature;
3. finally and most importantly being able to control / eliminate my emotions as far as possible.
I believe most people don't make it in trading because they don't approach it in the right way - as a long term structured business. This is partly because in most jobs that people currently do there exists structure already, they have to make decisions within an structured rule based environment...with trading you have to make that structured rules based environment yourself and most people are not capable (or don't realise this is what they need to do) of doing this.
Secondly most people don't appreciate how inefficient the human brain is in relation to becoming a consistently profitable at any form of 'gambling'. It is a maor hurdle that needs to be overcome and most people again dont' realise this and can't acknoweldge the effect of emotions on their decision making let alone know how to do something about it. This is something most people are unlikely experience in their current jobs so it is a completely new 'feeling'
The first part...learning a method that suits your personality is relatively straightforward...it just requires patience and a lot of hard work. The second part (controlling your emotions) is much harder and require a lot of self-analysis and in some cases this hurdle can never be overcome.
Just my little ramble.
lol I don't need to knock on any doors, they come and knock on my door |
Nov 15, 2010 1:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
Hi to all, my today trades:
EUR/CHF 1H, PPZ, PA. Closed 1/2 position +45, second 1/2 losed at BE. +1%
GBP/USD 1H, BEOB, PPZ was broken downwards. But price went against me and hit SL. -2%
Gold 1H, heavy PPZ, PA, 61fib. still in trade (+850pips)
USD/CHF 4H (dont look at TL ) Try to take touchtrade in Fibo61 and PPZ confluense... but hit SL -2%
USD/JPY 4H. PPZ, PA, Fibo50. Still in trade
LJ, if you have time. Show mistakes |
I can't really comment on whether you made mistakes or not as each trader is different. for exam ple one touch trade trader would take different setups to another etc it depends on the types of setups you want to take within your own rules. I'll provide my own thoughts as to what made me pass on all of these setups though (lol).
1. ECHF - that is one tiny pin, I would want a higher high up 1.3480 and just a bigger pin generally to take a short. Plus I am currently long on this pair based on the daily BUOB
2.GU - I don't see a 1HR BEOB? I only see a BUOB - I took a trade on GU which I'll share in a moment
3. Gold - a good area for a bounce IMO but that again was too small a pin ther for me to take it.
4. UCHF - for me the touch trade was only valid on Friday as this is where this area was 'touched' for the first time...the longer it hangs around this area the more likely it will break up...the very nature of the touch trades I take is that I want a strong rejection due to the level of confluence that there is...the fact this didn't happen on Friday made me think it had a higher chance of going up.
5. TL, RN, PPZ confluence @ 83 . The 4HR BEOB wasn't a good bar for me as the close didnt close below those previous bar highs. The 1HR BEOB looked better as there was some small space to those former bar lows and highs which is where it is at now, but I decided to pass on it. |
Nov 15, 2010 1:13pm
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My trades for today:
1. ECHF - daily BUOB - will cut it if it gets below 1HR support I reckon
2. GU confluene of TL, PPZ and a good rejection of the 1.600 RN took profit at FTA +0.77R
3. EU - Breakout, pullback plus 1HR PA. Took profit at FTA +0.71R
Happy to take some small profit on a Monday rather than look for bigger moves.
I also have pending orders on silver weekly PA and AU weekly PA
Total for today +1.48R
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Nov 15, 2010 3:47pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ale73a
Hello LJ, this was a nice touch trade (PPZ and fibo)...did you see it?
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I dont look at NU that much to be honest so yeah I missed it. I would have passed most likely on this though as I thin the 61fib and daily PPZ is a stronger area - daily and weekly PPZ which is what I prefer.
Also I'm not overly keen on going short USD as all the USD pairs are in a nice downtrend IMO so I'm more keen on trying to get into the the current trend.
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Nov 15, 2010 3:51pm
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My Silver weekly Pin has now borken so my trade is in play which is less than ideal as I'll have to either set a TP @25 or leave it as be off to bed soon.
I didn't do it on this occassion (was busy most of today doing other things) but on big PA like this I try to find a way to get in at a discount...so the PA is showing the direction and can I find a good setup to get in with a much lower risk entry. So I'm looking for some lower TF PA or a touchntrade setup.
You can see on the daily chart that price essentially had a breakout on Fridya of some former bar lows and it retested the area perfectly today before heading lower...this would have been a great discounted entry to the weekly pin
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Nov 16, 2010 2:08pm
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Today's trades:
1. Silver - closed out my short based ont he weekly pin at 25 as planned. If the Ireland bailout problems contiue to cause an increase in risk aversion then I'd expect a continued sell-off in commodities, metals and equities so I'll be looking watching carefully and looking out for some technical setups. + 0.32 (a poor %R for this tpye of setup but very very easy money in the bank...I risk much more on daily and weekly TF setups anyway than the normla 1% I use for intraday trading).
2. GU - touch trade - had a confirmed break of the 4HR TL so was looking for a retrace to test as resistance and got a touch trade setup. Price ran off nicely and I just took profit at the daily PPZ and rising TL confluence @ 1.5860. +6R
3. UC - price cant break the daily PPZ down and as I have a strong USD strength bias a 4HR BUOB was an easy setup for me to take. I took profit @ 1.0220 daily PPZ as expect some retracement now as price has probably exhausted its move for the day. +2.18R
4. EG - touch trade then 4HR BEOB - took 2 trades moved to BE when FTA hit and got stopped out at BE
I'm still in ECHF daily BUOB (friday bar) and AU weekly PA (2week bearish pin).
Total for today +8.5R
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Nov 16, 2010 2:12pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zentrader108
Yes you are preaching to the converted. Trading is first and foremost a challenge for the mind. I have a lot of structure in my in my trading which manifests in a big kick ass spreadie. I also have a business plan which although currently not going entirely to plan gives me belief in what I am doing. Without either it would be very easy to fall into an emotionally driven capital Armageddon. There is a random element to trading which can never be underestimated but the human element can be controlled.
[font=Calibri][size=3]My...
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A mental edge is a good edge to have!
If I continue to make these level of profits for the next 12 months then I'll be very happy and will re-asses what next step I want to take in my trading career.
No I don't I only use FF (for journal record keeping purposes) and I'm a member of a forum from one of the commercial members. |
Nov 16, 2010 2:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rufus
My whole focus right now is understanding how emotions affect the markets. Not only my own but also the emotions of the crowd and how that appears on the chart. It has been a great study.
"Trading for a living"...
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This is very true IMO ... and why is that...IMO it's because people are not used to making decisions completely free of set rules by themselves. The majority of people live in a very structured society governmed by rules both legal amd moral and this also applies in their job. Trading is completely different to this as relatively speaking there are no rules, you make your own rules and thus you have a lot of people who are not used to thinking completely for themselves in this non-rule based environment. Throw in the the natural emotions of fear and greed that comes with winning and losing money (again which you dont experience in your everyday life) and it's understandable how the herd behaviour comes about.
I've never a read a trading book all the way through, especially Psyhcology ones, personally I feel the best way to learn about how emotions affect trading is to experience it yourself and understand how your own emotions affect your trading and why and how you can minimise / control their affect. Psychology is a very important often underestimated aspect of trading as it doesn't have the buzz like actually learning a trading method does and also it is often a very overcomplicated subject IMO. Psychology with regards trading boils down to greed and fear IMO and nothing else, everything that affects your trading always comes back to those two emotions and once you understand what the affects these emotions can have you can then start to devise ways to control them. It takes a lot of self-analysis IMO (depending on how badly emotions affect your trading) to be able to overcome this hurdle and is not an easy 'time' to go through as it is often a very tough mental challenge.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Nov 16, 2010 4:12pm
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Nov 17, 2010 10:55am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fxfighter
I've missed this but I think that trade had enough confluences be good for touch.
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Yes, that was a great one - I missed it too! Was too busy watching the USD pairs which were moving at a snails pace.
1st time back to broken PPZ - look how clear that PPZ is too, RN, fibs...I would take that setup every time and an obvious TP too. |
Nov 17, 2010 11:12am
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Today I was focussing mainly on the USD crosses as GU, EU, AU, NU in partocular were at daily PPZ areas as was oil and YM. So I was looking for signs of exhaustion in order to take some reversal trades.
So first I've attached charts of the supporting confluence from the potential correlation with oil and YM.
I've actually exited all my trades as I'm out all evening and the lack of momentum concerns me...I don't like trades that display a lack of momentum and I'm impatient too!
Today's trades as follows:
1. EU - touch trade area based on daily confluence +1.08
2. GU - touch trade based on daily confluence, also took the 1HR BUOB and then I set a LIMIT order on the 4HR BUOB instead of a STOP order and thus the trade got triggered prematurely. GU retraced pretty quickly and I got out for a small overall combined net loss of -0.87R
3. NU - touch trade followed by 1HR BUOB +2.14R
4. AU - 4HR bullish pin, I got in at a discounton the retrace +1.11R
5. UC - 4HR bearish pin, same as UC I got in on the retrace +0.9R
Total +4.36R
Was a very slow day and the market sure made it hard to get some decent pips.
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Nov 17, 2010 11:13am
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final charts...
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Nov 18, 2010 2:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi LJ, those trades are amazing. 4.36R in a day. Some people would be very happy to get those return in a month. Really enjoy your posts. Keep it coming
Btw, do you manage your higher TF trade separately from your lower TF trade? Let say your NZDUSD touch trade. Do you think we could treat this trade as higher Tf trade (daily setup)? If you do how would you manage it? Thanks
PS:are you looking to long gold now? |
Thanks, though looking at my charts this morning I'm a bit annoyed that I closed all my longs prematurely yesterday. Those support areas on FX combined with the confluence from the likes of YM and oil were strong hints that usd and jpy pairs were gonna have a decent retracement...my thinking in closing them was the uncertainty with Ireland etc and not being around if something did happen to cause some fear to come back into the market. If there wasn't that risk I would have defintely have held onto these longs for much longer.
I dont see any setup on gold right now? |
Nov 18, 2010 5:26am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi LJ, those trades are amazing. 4.36R in a day. Some people would be very happy to get those return in a month. Really enjoy your posts. Keep it coming
Btw, do you manage your higher TF trade separately from your lower TF trade? Let say your NZDUSD touch trade. Do you think we could treat this trade as higher Tf trade (daily setup)? If you do how would you manage it? Thanks
PS:are you looking to long gold now? |
With regards trades lke NU I'm not very good at treating these types of trades as daily TF trades. In theory yes you should manage the trade on the daily or maybe the 4HR TF. I obviusly left a lot of profit on the table from yesterdays trades...the techncails were there for a decent retracement but the fundamentals and continued uncertainty in Ireland and the contagoion affect was bothering me so I was too cautious in retrospect.
NU just actually hit what woyuld have been my area to take either all profit or half. |
Nov 18, 2010 8:18am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Yes that will be my TP too for NZDUSD. But as you said, with those news about Ireland and China increasing rates really made me nervous when it hit that TL. But now as price manage to break the TL, do you think there will be second leg to this USD play? I am waiting for price to retrace again to enter (around 0.7690 for NZDUSD). Same type of play for gold. What do you think?
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Not sure what will happen now...au,eu,gu, nu are all at resistance areas but have not bounced down hard like I would like. I'm on the sidelines waiting for a sign as to wheher the USD pairs will continue up or USD will regain some strength. I'm sure the US session will lead the way. |
Nov 18, 2010 8:23am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ihor
Hello Lovejoy!
I also took some setups as you did yesterday. When it is a good trade, a lot of people see it and trade it. Charts may be vary one from another, but the basic concepts are the same.
I see you pay some attention to fundamentals. So, what sources do you use for fundamental information?
And can you describe your daily routine. When you start trading, when finishing, etc...
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I only look at basic fundamentals...just general market moving news (in terms of data releases and other news like Ireland problems) that can affect risk appetite in the market generally or particular to one economoy and their currency.
I have daily FX and Forex Live open all day long for news releases and other info that comes along to keep up to date with latest market developments.
I start trading at 8am each day (London time) as this is the start of the London session and I dont like trading between sessions i.e. trading just before London opens is normally a big no for me as the chance of London / Europe reversing / taking price in a certain direction is high. So I'm up reviewing / updating charts and any news before then and ready to trade once London shows some direction. I normally finish trading about 5pm London time but am often in front of my charts for fair few hours after but US afternoon session is typically quite quiet. Then I'll revew my daily charts just before the daily FXPro close at 10pm |
Nov 18, 2010 4:00pm
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Was pretty busy doing other things today (didn't facy watching price continue to go up and up on the trades I took profit on yesterday either!). Manage to take a few trades though:
1. EG - 1HR BEOB - still in this
2. UCHF touch trade area - still in this
3. EJ - 1HR BUOB - stil in this
4. GJ - 1HR Pin - still in this
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Nov 18, 2010 4:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Hi LJ,
atm the EUR is under pressure because of the ireland crisis. To what extend does this kind of bad news affect you when you get for example a E/U long set up.
That's a question of somebody who doesn't look at fundamentals |
generally speaking it will make no difference as if the market was bearish you woudn't be getting a bullish technical setup. But when you have something like the Eurozone sveriegn debt crisis this does make me cautious as it will only take some bearish moves for the market to sell off quite hard like we saw at the beginning of the week.
This was why I took profit so early on my longs from yesterday on USD pairs as there was too much uncertainty around for me to want to leave them overnight. |
Nov 19, 2010 4:17am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi LJ, curious the way you draw your TL on your last trade on USDCHF. Do you use line chart to draw it?
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I use a TL to show me the trend...so for me it's what makes sense to show the direction of the trend...sometimes it might respect all bar lows sometimes (like in this case) it won't. |
Nov 19, 2010 4:19am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
Took touch trade GBPUSD: 2 TL, PPZ, RN, Fibo
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The 1HR BUOB is not ideal, but your chart looks same as mine. EU, GU, AU in particular are at daily resistance areas...I'd be surprised not to see a reaction on these pairs. No real data out today so could be a quiet one.
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Nov 19, 2010 5:02am
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Here is something I'm watching...got to go and grab some sleep (was up late watching my open trades...glad I did so I could close them in time +plus got in some serious Black Ops gameplay!) but I've got an alert set for when price reaches near this area.
I'm also short GU (as per the setup already discussed) and YM.
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Nov 19, 2010 7:41am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Here is something I'm watching...got to go and grab some sleep (was up late watching my open trades...glad I did so I could close them in time +plus got in some serious Black Ops gameplay!) but I've got an alert set for when price reaches near this area.
I'm also short GU (as per the setup already discussed) and YM.
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ECAD pending order was hit, GU working out nice as is YM...was pretty sure that we would have a mini sell off at the very least today looking at the technical locations. |
Nov 19, 2010 9:49am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Was pretty busy doing other things today (didn't facy watching price continue to go up and up on the trades I took profit on yesterday either!). Manage to take a few trades though:
1. EG - 1HR BEOB - still in this
2. UCHF touch trade area - still in this
3. EJ - 1HR BUOB - stil in this
4. GJ - 1HR Pin - still in this
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Update on yesterdays postions and todays trades:
I stayed up during half of Asia to watch my trades and closed them out as follows:
1. I took profit on EG when it couldnt convincingly break the 0.8500 area @ 0.8505 +1R
2. I decided to just leave this trade until the upriding TL beraks...so I'm at BE with a TP of 1.0050
3. Decided to close @ 113.00 +1R
4. Decided to close @ 134.00 +2.75R
Todays trades:
1. GU - touch trade - already spoken about this one ...took profit @ 1.5965 PPZ +3.57R
2. YM - touch trade - still in this will take propfit before the days out though. SL @ BE
3. ECAD touch trade - posted this earlier, SL @ BE
4. ECHF - 4HR BUOB - just taken this |
Nov 19, 2010 9:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ihor
i'm too shorted eur/cad.
GBP/USD performing nicely, but i've passed it due to 1H BUOB
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I saw that too, but IMO the level of confluence displayed far outweights the 1HR PA that formed. The location and confluence is more powerful than any opposing PA for me.
The way I look at it is would I be willing to take that 1HR PA...definitely not, why, because of what I'd be trading into...you'd need some very strong momentum to break through there so I completely discarded the PA and took the touch trade short. Location and confluence is far more important than any PA IMO.
Last edited by lovejoy80, Nov 19, 2010 10:05am
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Nov 19, 2010 12:55pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Update on yesterdays postions and todays trades:
I stayed up during half of Asia to watch my trades and closed them out as follows:
1. I took profit on EG when it couldnt convincingly break the 0.8500 area @ 0.8505 +1R
2. I decided to just leave this trade until the upriding TL beraks...so I'm at BE with a TP of 1.0050
3. Decided to close @ 113.00 +1R
4. Decided to close @ 134.00 +2.75R
Todays trades:
1. GU...
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Will hold onto UCHF over weekend, ECAD will look again later a test of the rising H1/4H TL is what I'm looking for, YM I took profit @ 11.1k +2.83R, ECHF didnt really do what I wanted it to do so got out at BE.
So with only ECAD to come profit for todays and yesterdays trades is +11.15R (I've broken the 100R barrier for the month ). |
Nov 19, 2010 4:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lovejoy80
Will hold onto UCHF over weekend, ECAD will look again later a test of the rising H1/4H TL is what I'm looking for, YM I took profit @ 11.1k +2.83R, ECHF didnt really do what I wanted it to do so got out at BE.
So with only ECAD to come profit for todays and yesterdays trades is +11.15R (I've broken the 100R barrier for the month ). |
Just took profit on ECAD for +2.83 R, leaving UCHF open.
Total in closed trades for today +13.98R
Stats for week:
20 trades, 19 winners
+28.32R |
Nov 20, 2010 7:05am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Outstanding result. I think everyone who wants to learn how to trade should bookmark your threat. Greatest respect.
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Thanks.
All I'm doing is applying methods that are better described in threads elswhere.
If anyone thinks these trading methods are for them (everyone has a different personality and you need to find a trading method that suits your personalilty+time available to trade - some like mechanical systems with low win rate + very high %R, others like discretionary methods with high win rate etc...finding a method that fits in with your personality is very important IMO) then you need to learn about S/R, PA, divergence, intermarket correlations.
Personally the only thread I learned this from was the J16 thread and in particular Jarroo, mbqb11 and Raczekfx posts...you could do far worse than downloading (someone has compiled all posts per person) all their posts, get them printed and bound and read and re-read them over and over again and then go practice by watching charts as much as you can - that's pretty much what I did. It took me about 1 year to learn the methods and become competent at applying them. The other major hurdle is your mind...this is not specific to any trading method it's specific to trading / any type of gambling as a whole and is a whole seperate subject matter. |
Nov 20, 2010 7:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ihor
Wow! Congratulations! You found a lot of good setups in this months and managed them well. This is the result of dedicated work and discipline ever in such things as maintaining this thread regularly.
Till New Year we expect 200 R from you :-)
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Thanks. Yes, discpline and patience are critical in trading...something that comes with experience IMO. Of course there is no substitute to hard work.
Who knows what I'll make before end of the year...I'll just continue to trade setups that the market present to me |
Nov 22, 2010 6:05am (22 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MCFly
Here are the zip files. I hope LJ don't mind it.
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Course not.
Here are some more I have from post 2500 onwards (i.e. following on from the above posts) which cover up to Sep 2010. Note I don't seem to have 2500-3000 or 3500-4000 for some reason, thus if you can find them form somewhere then you have a complete set split between seniors posts.
I would recommend anyone starting to learn about S/R and PA to print off James, Mike (MBQB11), Jarroo's and Rac's posts and reading them all the way through and then go and look at some charts and practice marking up S/R zones and looking for PA over and over and over again. |
Nov 22, 2010 2:59pm (13 hr ago)
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Some nice moves today which is unusual for a Monday. It was a case of taking some easy setups and just leavng them for me today.
Today's trades:
1. ECHF - 4HR BEOB - took profit @ 1.3480 PPZ +1.3R
2. GU - 4HR BEOB of a well respected TL with the 1.6100 PPZ just above. exited at the 4HR rising TL + RN +2.42R
3. GJ - 4HR BEOb at double top - exited @ 133.00 +1.4R
4. AU - 1HR BEOb @ 50% + PPZ confluene - stil in this trade @ BE
5. NU - Big 4HR BEOb formed, I entered on a retracement back to previous support level (0.7770 with SL @0.7810 rather than the BEOB high) and exited @ 0.7700 as price really didnt have as much momentum as I expected it too +1.75R
Total for today +6.87R
I had a fair bit of correlated exposure today but the market was giving some very clear bearish signs across the board so I was pretty comfortable with my exposure...I wouldnt have takne full losses on all of these setups though...if they would have come back into DD I would have cut some of my risk thats for sure...but the fact that there was a lot of signs that the market was going to drop said to me we were gonna get some decent moves down.
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Nov 22, 2010 3:02pm (13 hr ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tier1
Hi Lovejoy i am not new with trading but new here i was wondering how would you enter this trade or does this trade even fullfill your criteria. Wouold you enter on the touch so pending order for example or do you wait 1 bar close?
I hope you can give me some answer thanks
Lovejoy.
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Er, can you attach a chart?! |
Nov 23, 2010 2:35am (1 hr 52 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sam0182
Any reason not to take the long circa 1.33 on GBP/JPY?
I hopped in at 1.328...not sure quite what to do with the position now, want to watch and see what Asia does.
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Because of the strength of the preceding 4HR bar which was also a BEOB or DBHLC. The market yesterday was driven by worries caused because of the Irish bailout and their governmental problems i.e. a contagion affect. When this happens I'd rather stay on the side of the immediate trend i.e. risk off and a strong JPY and USD rather than try to pick a bottom or reversal unless I see some signs of exhaustion and the technical area and confluence is extremely strong.
As it happens if I had taken that trade I would have taken a loss as my SL would have been higher than the low it reached. |
Nov 23, 2010 2:39am (1 hr 48 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forexben
LJ80 nice trades yesterday as per usual. A lazy 6R is'n't too shabby on a day most people were saying was shitty for trading
I took this GU trade long during the Asian session. Had BRN, 38-50% fib, and lower trendline confluence on the H4. It was floating between +0 and +50 for around 10 hrs before it started to lose momentum and I closed it out at BE just before it slid fast. Do you mind commenting on the set up? Do you think these kind of trades need a legitament PA bar to pull the trigger? Benn |
Hmmm you took a long at 1.6? Not something I would have done, I also dont use the fibs like that either. For me the best fibs are over the immediate swing or a very clear daily swing and the best time they will act as supporting confluence is the first time they reach these areas...if price then boucnes around I'll pretty much discard the fibs as confluence.
For me the area of interest fora potential long was where I took profit on my GU short at a 4HR rising TL - but I would have wanted some PA to take a long |
Nov 23, 2010 2:42am (1 hr 45 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi LJ, about your last trade on GU. Would you still take the trade if there was no BEOB, just a touch trade off the TL? I pass on this one because I have bearish bias over usd and this is the fourth time price bounce off the TL. In general, would you keep on selling/buying off the TL until it is broken or would you limit yourself to certain number?
Thanks
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I did consider selling on the touch as the whole area is a strong resistance area but I decided to wait for confirmation PA and this is typically what I'll do. I won't generally takea touch trade of just a TL...touch trades for me are about areas of great confluence starting with a horizontal s/r so a TL is merely supporting confluene rather than a reason to take a trade, hence I'd wait for PA.
Why do you have a bearish bias...I would say that the BEOB was showing you what the immediate direction was going to be...I try not to second guess the market and let the market show me what it's going to do and yesterday there were bearish signs all over the place (i.e. bullish USD)
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Nov 23, 2010 2:45am (1 hr 42 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Got this on the radar if you see this 1 not valid feedback pls welcome Mark |
Looking at the daily chart I'd prefer 1.5500 area.
I see you follow forexlive and ashraf like I do...how do you get those notifications of new posts like you have on your chart? |
Nov 23, 2010 3:36am (51 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by makron
Hi! 2 fails at night
1) GBPJPY - 1H BEOB on breakout TL and PPZ+RN
2) GBPCHF - 1H BUOB, TL, fibo
what i did wrong? |
Firstly remember that this is a game of probabilties...you can never be 100% right all the time and losses will happen...it's a necessary cost of this type of business.
My own views on these trades are:
1. Nothnig much wrong with GJ in terms of the techncial setup...the bar could have pierced higher and it could be a bigger BEOB but the key thing that would stop me taknig this is that it happened during Asia or actually just before?
Thus during a period of low volume and thus I wouildnt' give this bar much weight because of the lack of market players causing this bar. ~Look how when the European session opened the volume came back into the market and took price in the opposite direction, this is exactly why I rarely take a PA setup until after London has opeend for an hour as you basically have a different set of traders (with much higher volume too) driving the market when the European markets open whereas Asia is a low volume trading session where price rarely moves and (if I've got my times right) this bar was formed very early on in Asia too and thus when it didnt move a few hours later I would have cut it as I'd be looking for some quick momentum down.
2. I dont really see a good location for this BUOB....it, for me is not off a PPZ and infact is trading straight into one..the bar didn't break so this should have saved you from takinga loss?
A quick glance at my chart (haven't been focussing too muhc on GCHF lately) and the two setups marked are easy setups IMO..PA of a TL then breakout pullback and PA for the second trade. |
Nov 23, 2010 3:44am (43 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ingmarforex
Yeah sorry took the picture when it was noted Do you have tweetdeck?
I took the gbp/chf on demo i saw your feedback later but still made pips but my goal is to work on the entries so i dont count this as a good 1 it whent still 54 pips from my pending order. Mark you normally take those trades on touches and look at the price action or do you wait for candle close?
Thanks mate if you need help to setup tweetdeck let me know? |
Ah i see I was looking at the wrong swing...but still the daily setup I showed was a pretty good setup I'll be waiting for.
Referring to your original setup it does shave RN, PPZ 50% confluence but what would have made me nervous about it is the number of times price has come down to this area...thus I would have been looking for some smaller TF PA...and I see the 5min and 15min gave some nice PA setups.
So yeah that was a setup with PA confirmation that I would have taken.
Actually you can see looking at my previous post how you could have miled a fair few pips on GCHF from yesterday with 2 shorts then reversing for a long.
No I dont but I'll look into tweetdeck, thanks. |
Nov 23, 2010 4:20am (7 min ago)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Lovejoy80,
Mate. I love the way you trade. I've come to the SAME conclusions as you, but have been simmering my thoughts.
Btw, something I think is VERY useful is inter-market analysis. Not sure if you use this. But I use S&P 500, CRB and Dollar Index as the risk-on assets and when they go really overbought/sold together, we know a reversal or sorts is due.
Then the PA-PPZ approach works like a charm, but with a nice directional bias as well. I find watching the Dollar Index extremely helpful as well.
Thanks for sharing mate. =)
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Yes I do use inter-market analysis, I mainly focus on EP, YM, Crude Oil and Gold and occasionally the USD Index. For me YM and EP are the best indicators of current risk appetite with Gold and Oil secondary...you can also use the fact that Canada and Australia are big exporters of Oil and Gold as supporting confluence too so for me I use these as confluence in my trades mainly in terms of risk appetite.
For example I took some trades last week when YM was @ 10950 which had daily PPZ and 61fib confluence and there were technical setups on the USD based crosses too to go long...in this case this is great confluence and I'll be going long with the knowledge that it's a very high probability long setup across the board...if that makes sense.
I've used USD index at times and keep meaning to bring it back in. |
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