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  #64514  
Old May 21, 2010 12:21pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
HI Bundy,

Regarding your first example about bar blasting through major, once this happens, do we follow the bar's movement or do we anticipate a retracement back to the major PPZ ( something that Jaroo likes to watch on smaller TF).
For me, it's like " ok, we have something going on here but er, how do we know if it's going to retrace or not to PPZ". This is always a dilema for me.
Any advice?

CY
He Cy

I am not bundy, but...at any given moment we have no idea what price is going to do. No one can say for sure yes price will blow through this ppz. Or it will pullback to this zone or that. The idea is to wait for when it DOES do something that we are looking for. That is ok here is a real strong PPZ, lets see what happens when it gets above this zone and IF it does pullback to the area I am watching what happens. If it keeps going you just wave by and its on its way(that is if you missed any entry that fit your criteria).

The whole key to trading is to wait for when things set up for the way you like. Everything else is simply the movements until your next setup.

I hope I didn't interrupt with bundy here

Best
Mike
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  #64524  
Old May 21, 2010 4:45pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Freaking awsome Hans!! Great post!

1st post material for sure.

How the heck do you do that flashing chart thing? Cool as hell.



Cool.
NICE!
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  #64560  
Old May 22, 2010 1:08pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Hello Mike
Yesterday I went short on the EURUSD breaking pinbar 1.2533 after the rebound from 1.2600.
half position +50 pips.
the other half: BE, although I expected a return to 1.2200
I was lucky or I had to put a tp smaller?
Thanks in advance.
Hey E

This is one for sure you need to manage tightly. You are trading right back into 1.2500 area and this late in the day on the friday can be very up and down. A quick t/p and move to b/e is exactly what you should do. Again many bars like this area going to go to their first areas, it is when we don't protect ourselves on the less then stellar trades that will get most people into trouble.

Well done
Mike
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  #64562  
Old May 22, 2010 6:07pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Thanks Mike, you are kind as always
I decided to take that trade even for rsi divergence
what do you think of this?

Hey E

It is a decent trade, certainly not an A+ but if one is careful of the area we have marked then you are giving yourself a much better chance. For me personally I never want to be trading into a major area like the 1.25 so it is an easy pass( I will look to trade away from this PPZ). But for many they will take the approach you had a get their stops to b/e quick and see how the trade begins to work out.

Hope you are having a nice weekend
Mike
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  #64579  
Old May 23, 2010 12:48pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thought you guys never used pivots?

I heard something about floor pivots are ok but you have to use them a little differently. Anyone care to explain about the usage of floor pivots, or is this not a good topic?

Here is a few in my collection.


Dan

The pivots custom looks like an reasonable pivot.
Hey Pin

We would use those pivots much the same way PPZs are used. Confluence. Like Dan said I am more of a believer they carry weight in centralized markets since they are math calculations based on the OHLC.

Best
Mike
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  #64584  
Old May 23, 2010 5:28pm
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Originally Posted by HanSolo View Post
You're welcome! I like the colors of your chart. I think I'll give white a try.

By the way, tomorrow is bank holiday in many european countries (GER, F, CHF) and Canada.
great let's all catch up on sleep
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  #64606  
Old May 24, 2010 12:07am
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
That might be RRP - I imported mine from the US for around $1600 from memory. After depreciating it for tax, it comes out to under a thousand bucks. Which might sound like a lot, but look at it from a $/hr perspective over 5 years...

Best money I ever spent. Used to get pretty debillitating back pain from sitting for a long time (which I do far, far too much of) which has completely vanished. The OH&S girl at work basically told me that if I didnt get a chair that suited my height and frame, I'd end up one of those cranky old men with chronic...
thanks for the info Joel, I was looking into getting the aeron model, lower back issues run in my family with my mother have 4 surgeries and is limited greatly in everything she can do. I have felt hints at my lower back and I think simply b/c of my fitness routines I am ok since I sit most of the day as well. Don't want to wait till it gets bad

Going to look into these too

Thanks
Mike
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  #64617  
Old May 24, 2010 2:02am
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Hello Jarroo: on GBPUSD daily is there a valid pinbar (pinbar closed below the left eye)?
this is technically not a pinbar E it must close within the prior bar

Mike

Last edited by mbqb11, May 24, 2010 2:15am
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  #64661  
Old May 24, 2010 11:14am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi,...
Hey N

Welcome and glad you have gone back to demo. MOst are to prideful until they blow their accounts. So you have already taken CONTROL of your own trading.

You trade is actually very well managed which I am very impressed about so early on. Looks like you might be a fast learner

Best
Mike
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  #64662  
Old May 24, 2010 11:41am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Mike would probably like that one too. Strong rejection up and then down through the strong 1.45 PPZ level. Hitting good Hourly and 4 hour targets (previous Lows). 4 hour is showing some consolidating of Price, protect yourself wisely.

Nice job.
yes this was a pretty good one, definitely one that needs to break hard like you say as well. I was sleeping with the holidays. Nice to catch up on some sleep as I got zero this weekend

Mike
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  #64666  
Old May 24, 2010 12:25pm
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Hello Mike!
Thanks for the advice this morning.
In your experience, you should open positions after the close of London?
I will open a position whenever a high probability presents itself, be it at the start of London, or the end of Tokyo . But the majority of my trades occur during the main sessions (london/NY) logically.

Best
Mike
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  #64684  
Old May 25, 2010 12:13am
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Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah View Post
ignore my last post, at least i can post charts again !

i still cant edit the post though but im guessing its my java??

does anyone know how to mt4 from showing me the chart iv saved ???or at least change it to the browser i use??

cheers

jon
Hey Jon

Right click the file and go to properties. It should say "opens with" and a change button,

Mike
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  #64752  
Old May 25, 2010 10:16am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Why would you consider taking a Long trade after the candle you called an IB?
To me, whatever the outcome, that candle is more like a DOJI showing signs of indecision as to which forces are going to take control of price, ie the buyers or sellers. I may be wrong and that is ok but i think that is pretty dangerous candle to base a trade on.
I mean, we don't want price to reverse on us or even if it goes our direction, it may linger for days.
Hey Pin

Just to clarify here, and Inside Bar is and inside bar no matter the shape. An IB itself is indecision in the market place, the fact that the bar looks like a DOJI even more confirms that thats what is taking place, a settling so to speak. The concept of an inside bar is that the range has not only decreased(meaning consolidation on some level) but it decreased and remained within the prior range. If played at the right spot regardless of the shape of the IB they often "pop" however temporary as per J16

Best
Mike
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  #64755  
Old May 25, 2010 10:59am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Thanks Mike so the form of the IB does not matter it is simply the range.

Now, I can get that out of my head.

Appreciated
Some people WILL look at the formation of the IB. For example you get one that has a pin like shape to it. At the end of the day it is simply still an inside bar. I think the best IBs are the small ones, so to have a shape is nearly impossible b/c the range is so small it is insignificant.

Mike
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  #64757  
Old May 25, 2010 11:04am
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
Hello Mike
The preference for the break of the IB is, however, in the direction of the PA?
Or you can wait also a reverse?
An IB can be played multiple ways.

1. A straddle - Which is a sell below, and a buy above
2. In on direction only based on location.

Example an IB sitting above a PPZ, would you want to sell into the PPZ or only play long?

Example an IB sitting in the middle of a breakout area where it could pop either way would make more sense for a straddle

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #64759  
Old May 25, 2010 11:18am
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Originally Posted by extraneo View Post
if the IB is above a ppz would be more convenient order stop above or under IB?
In my above example, what I was trying to say is that i would never want to sell an inside bar into a PPZ, just as any other PA, so I would only have a buy stop above the IB instead of a straddle in the type of scenario

Best
Mike
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  #64771  
Old May 25, 2010 3:57pm
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Originally Posted by six gun View Post

If the pin breaks down what are the cons?
cons would be a small bar vs a very strong trending market, and trading into 1.1500. Doesn't mean it isn't playable with a tight mgmt strategy though

Best
Mike
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  #64799  
Old May 25, 2010 11:32pm
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
This is my 2nd Trade with J16 rules. Went Long on NZD/USD after the H4 PB which was at swing low. Somehow I was not feeling very confident of the Trade after I entered it cause the PB did not have real long nose, so I closed my full position at TP1.

Comments / opinions from experts solicited.


Cheers
Novice 198

PS I broke my rules by taking a H4 TF pin bar as I was not supposed to trade below Daily TF. I think as long as I do not trade below H4 TF it can still be considered trading on higher TF.
Hey N

Well managed trade. Like you said a longer nose would be more ideal, but that isn't to say that people won't trade these bars with great success, swing low, divg, and you managed it perfectly.

As for h4, it is certainly lower timeframe, but it is up to you what you demo. I just have to re-post this as I think it is very important and agree with it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=31

Best
Mike
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  #64805  
Old May 26, 2010 12:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
What appears to be a BEOB at a swing low is really something different when we see the bigger picture. or what Mike would say " the story that's being told" . . . A wedge break out/ pullback with PA.

Nice work Jonnyisfound. I'm sure Mike would agree. ( although I haven't read far enough to see if Mike commented on this one. lol )
yep this is an effective way to combine all the pieces James talks about, price bars+location, s/r(ppz), price patterns(breakout) and an understanding of where price should go. Nice little story :P
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  #64806  
Old May 26, 2010 12:30am
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the market really shouldn't ever catch us by surprise in my opinion. You are either reacting proactively or you are reacting defensively
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  #64811  
Old May 26, 2010 2:15am
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Originally Posted by conan View Post
Hi guys!

What about EURJPY piercing 110? Mike?
Hey Conan

It is something I certainly was watching but it just didn't penetrate it deep enough to catch my interest(ala bar size and weak close). So nice area showing demand but not enough to tip the hand off for me yet. So now I am focused on the 130 on the gbp/jpy so if price does move higher I may be able to hunt an entry else where that meets my criteria.

Best

Mike
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  #64812  
Old May 26, 2010 2:15am
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Originally Posted by msmarple View Post
I have been reading this thread since 3 weeks ( more than 8 hrs daily ) and it is definitely extremely valuable. I?d like to thank Jarroo especially, his clear and concise charts have turned my trading around 100%.

One of the " real eyeopeners " for me is the gradual understanding of the word confluence -

a) used in Jim`s sense of PPZ, PA bars/candles, Fibs, Space....etc., all of them lining up to qualify for a setup.

b) additionally as I see it in SeekingLight?s ( or raczek`s ) charts, the " progression " of price. What happens...
Welcome Msmarple

Keep at it things will only become clearer over the months/years

Mike
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  #64841  
Old May 26, 2010 9:44am
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Originally Posted by six gun View Post
I am a member of a share site forum. It has thousands of threads. Those posting on it are mainly from the UK.
I used to read it quite closely.
I pay the odd visit now.
It is pathetic, there is nothing wrong with the website, but the contributions are often very poor....

It is the strong community that we have around here that keeps this thread going day in and day out. We welcome everyone and anyone to hop on in, but if you aren't here to be NICE and learn we'll scare you off :P
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  #64842  
Old May 26, 2010 9:44am
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Already in a BE position now after a short entry from the PB break.
excellent glad to see you manage it closely. Taking a full bar loss on these types of setups are suicide in the long run in my opinion

Mike
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  #64843  
Old May 26, 2010 9:47am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
just noticed a Double bottom formation on the UJ H4 TF (ODL). It is not DBLHC but plain simple DB. Is this kind of setup playable as per the attached, or is it that I am just forcing a trade.

Comments / views/ critiques, all welcome.

Cheers
Novice198
Hey N

I think this is a bit risky as you are not even clearing the entire range or that top of the PPZ. I agree price is consolidating so it may pop, but IMO just buying at the top of that range is tricky. Now if the top of the range had multiple bar highs in a row(that lined up to the pip very close) then it would warrant more of a solid breakout play. I don't think have a TBL is enough in this type of scenario. There are easier ways to get into a play IMO.

Best
Mike
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  #64855  
Old May 26, 2010 12:45pm
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Originally Posted by fxdrive View Post
I have been studying this thread for the past few weeks and really appreciate the work you are all doing here

I'm still at the early stages of learning these techniques (so go easy on me) but stumbled on a US OIL chart while I was reviewing my FX daily charts. This pinbar looked so good to me I thought I would share to see if you would agree that this fits into the A+++ category?

I really appreciate any feedback, although this is OIL.

Attachment 480729
Hey Fx

The whole grading system is tough b/c one persons C trade might be someone elses A+ trade.

This was a pinbar at a swing low. Size could be bigger in terms of fighting such a huge down trend, but it had a decent size. I would have preferred a stronger close over 70 personally. With that said we could see the first trouble area easily being at 71, so if managed correctly should prevent anything beyond a small loss(unless someone is trying to pick a bottom and hold and understands if it hits 71 and reverses they know why).

Best
Mike
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  #64857  
Old May 26, 2010 1:49pm
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Originally Posted by Samb0o View Post
hmm... gbpchf DBLHC on daily chart, hope it stays in end of the day. previous two days shows allmost twoday pinbar. There is room to go up now so wait till tomorrow.
Hey Samb

Remember for a DBLHC the close of the bar MUST be above the previous bars high. Also remember that is a swing high point and as taught by j16 we want to see that setup at swing low points. Of course there are exceptions but when new to this I think it is important to grasp the basics from James first.

Hope that helps!
Mike
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  #64860  
Old May 26, 2010 2:27pm
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Originally Posted by fxdrive View Post
On my chart the high was 70.06 so a buy at 70.16 would have been OK? This way it would have broken the resistance at 70[=p-o6y7tr543w21

Many thanks for taking the time to reply.
Yes what is nice is when you have a rd number so close to your entry. It gives you a good feeler out pt to be able to cut out for a smaller loss when they turn on you
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  #64862  
Old May 26, 2010 3:34pm
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Hey everyone

I have noticed my losses are about 70% made on Daily. I?m feeling stupid. Daily should be easier to trade than lower timeframes?

Scenario is that when buffer limit stop has been triggered, price retraces immediatelly and hits stoploss. Though it may be hard to answer but is there any other reason than just bad PA-bars?

I use often 100pip stoploss, thats my max..

Trading doesn?t taste good today.. Hope someone can give me some ideas.

Nuc

Hey Nuc

It would be easier if you could post some losses for us to analyze. Also I have a feeling just having a set 100 pip stop loss may be part of the problem. I think most people should be starting by placing their stop on the other side of the setup and minimizing as it goes.

Post some charts up and we can help see what it may be

Mike
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  #64865  
Old May 26, 2010 4:35pm
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Originally Posted by nuclear62 View Post
Hey Mike

Thanks for your quick response

I should place my stoploss like you said but I?m worrying my risk. I have a small account so I can?t make my lotsize smaller. It would be better to use a bigger stop anyway?

Heres my recent loss with NZDUSD. Entry at magenta line. All other losses are also something like this

Edit: And thanks Dan, I?ve learned my lesson
Hey Nuc

First and foremost you need to move to demo and to a broker that allows you to properly position size. Period. Paragraph. There is no excuse for that in the forex market and at the demo stage. That is as harsh as you will hear my tone :-P

As for NZD/USD. I see it as this, and with all the pins yesterday. Smaller pin countertrend very very strong markets. I don't want to pick bottoms with those size pins. And also see how the nose is barely protruding away from the prior lows. We want a much more clear nose penetrating through which would in turn have given us a bigger bar. Now if you see all this and it still does not bother you then you must accept your trade for better or worse. Now if you also choose to not place your stop at the bottom of the pin(and it should NOT be b/c you can't position size properly), then you must accept that you may get taken out before the bar goes to the underside of the pin.

Hopefully this helps a bit and believe me I am not scolding in anyway, I just don't want to see others make some very simple mistakes that can make a world of difference

Mike
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  #64870  
Old May 26, 2010 6:12pm
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Originally Posted by emiliolopez View Post
Hi, what do you think about this one?
Attachment 480939
Hey E

We are at an important PPZ but there are no signs of anything yet in my book. Time to wait and see if we get some PA to unfold

Best
Mike
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  #64879  
Old May 26, 2010 9:10pm
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Originally Posted by joshk View Post
Would it benefit a complete newbie to sign up for the membership site?

I've been playing online poker professionally for seven years now and I'm growing tired of it and would like to start transitioning into a different way of making a living.

I've been going through babypips and reading various articles and lurking here for a few days. Would the site be too advanced?
Poker burned me out so bad man lol

I highly recommend sticking and going through this thread for a few months. THere is a ton to learn before you make a decision to come to the PF. It's all there too, but stick around here start going through this thread. It is a great way to get started(plus a ton more) and nice to see how everything came together too.

Best
Mike

PS I have seen an influx of poker burnouts recently! The games got so hard a few years ago, back when I played it was a joke compared to the grind now
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  #64881  
Old May 26, 2010 9:11pm
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Originally Posted by emiliolopez View Post
ill sit on my hands then

thanks
The toughest part
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  #64890  
Old May 26, 2010 10:02pm
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
I've been viewing nothing lower than daily TFs lately and found no A+, which makes me think about this: J16 method is about PA with confluence, but does it lean more on reversal or continuation trades? Minus the historical top and the historical bottom, the only 2 extremes and true reversals, everything in between is in a trend one way or another, which is where 'the trend is your friend' comes from. The best of the best trades are of course to be able to pick a reversal in historical high and low but I'd have to wait far too long for only 1 of...
Hey FX

There is no best kind of trade. People often mistake pinbars as you said for we only go for a historical top or bottom. This is far from the case. The idea is simply to look for good bars at good locations. The locations are numerous. We want new traders to start with understanding the basics. That is a nice bar at a swing high or low in open space, thats b/c they are the easiest to decipher. But the locations of bars are very vast. You have pullbacks to former ranges/ppzs, double tops/bottoms, Simple pullback of a trend, breakout of ranges, and the list goes on and on. So j16 leads to all of the above and more then you probably realize. At the end of the day I personally look for GREAT bars, at even better locations. This is what makes me profitable.

All the best
Mike
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  #64891  
Old May 26, 2010 10:03pm
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Originally Posted by bun888 View Post
Okie, thanks
it's been over 14 minutes, come on Jarroo! :P

Just playing! you are the best
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  #64935  
Old May 27, 2010 12:46am
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Originally Posted by XNAdam View Post
Yeah, I think fijitrader had a bit to say about that. I wish I could remember where I read it. I think he mentioned something about asymmetrical leverage, and how it can make your account balance a bit wonky over the long run.

At any rate, the better granularity you can get with your positioning, the better. Absolutely.
yep and in the forex market there is just no excuse. Back in the day sure, you could only trade standards, then minis came out and it was like WHOA!, now you can trade less then a penny per pip Of course you need to be with a broker you are comfortable with

Caveat emptor
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  #64995  
Old May 27, 2010 12:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
You get the webinars - horrid times for those in Europe but they are recorded.
.
Hey Now!

I run one for you guys every other week at 1pm est which I think is 7pm your time !

Mike
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  #64997  
Old May 27, 2010 12:23pm
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
But don't great bars already cover much of the move? Does it mean that we spot the majority of a move and attempt to profit from the rest of its move?
It depends on the bar and what else is around. My avg R:R is over 1:1, but on any given trade I may only take .25% out of a move or soemtimes 3r. So it really comes down to the situation, but in general my answer would be no.

Best
Mike
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  #64998  
Old May 27, 2010 12:26pm
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off for a long weekend to visit my brother. If I don't get to your pms/posts that is why

Enjoy your weekends!
Mike
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  #65135  
Old May 30, 2010 9:20pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Ever wondered why Mike talks a lot about setups that "jump out at you", Setups that appear at BIG BOLD round numbers? and what about the emphasis on BIG bars.

Nothing's more soothing when all it takes you is a glance to hawk a money making opportunity,

g.




THis all comes back to keeping it simple! I know that sounds silly to say, but it goes a long way in trading.

Back and chipping away at my inbox slowly

Catching up on all your posts here too some good stuff

Mike
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  #65172  
Old May 31, 2010 11:13am
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you guys are nuts trading on memorial day!


With that aside, a very important day and I just wanted to give my acknowledgment to it publicly. My greatest thanks and respects to those who have given their lives for me.
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  #65177  
Old May 31, 2010 11:44am
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Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Did your backtesting data take into account holidays?
major ones yes, but they also get written in when a market is clearly choppy like this from the friday before and today is more of the same


Mike
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  #65178  
Old May 31, 2010 11:45am
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Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
................................... .............Attachment 483023
................................... .............
Thank you B that is a beautiful picture
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  #65189  
Old May 31, 2010 4:38pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
lol Well . . . now you know. Have you looked at the Pin Bar pdfs that are throughout the thread? They're not bad. Check'em out.

Although the chart graphic would suggest that we call them something other than a Pinocchio Bar. lol
hahahah oh man
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  #65192  
Old May 31, 2010 7:02pm
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Originally Posted by slade1986 View Post
If i was to trade this, I would look at entering on a break of 1.04 moving to BE @ 1.0355 and a target around 1.026.

Input?
Hey Slade

Your mgmt plan seems sound but I would just caution at playing a beob at a swing low. Remember we want to see these at swing high points, and IMO they area easier to trade that way. Now you can trade them as continuations but I think the play is tougher and a bit more advanced.

Best
Mike
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  #65199  
Old May 31, 2010 9:34pm
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi Mike,
I was watching this BEOB and thinking of playing same. Good you pointed out that it is not at swing high. It may give us continuation signal, but is it worth the risk? The FTA is quite close compared to the SL, so I will pass this.
Cheers,
Novice198
My favorite continuation play(and one of my favorite plays) is when you get a continuation outside bar that engulfs a range of bars at an important area. This forces price to these first trouble areas very strongly. But I think they are more difficult to spot then the traditional way and why we stick to the swing high/low around here. Gotta cover those basics and build the foundation

Mike
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  #65203  
Old May 31, 2010 10:10pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post
The original system of 1/16ths dates back to the founding of the NYSE in 1792, which was based on the Spanish stock market. In those days, the US dollar was pegged to the Spanish gold doubloon, so I guess it made sense to them. But they also wore wigs and knickerbockers, so their judgement was suspect at best.

The Spanish gold doubloon could be broken into two silver dollars - the real - which was then broken into 8 parts, hence the tick sizes (1/8th of a silver dollar = 1/16th of a gold doubloon).

Ever wonder where the pirate...
Joel-ipedia
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  #65204  
Old May 31, 2010 10:12pm
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Another PB I noticed on UJ daily chart. Not a good PB (as nose is short), Though PB at good confluence, there is too much traffic on left to give a smooth ride downwards.
Hence pass the trade.

Mike / Jarroo/ Bundy your comments welcome.

Cheers
Novice198

PS even the daily TF seems to keep me busy so no need to go down for the time being.
PPS:- Any way to improve my chrts resolution to depict same more clearly here
Hey Novice

I am not sure if this is what you were getting at with your PS

but I would highly recommend zooming out your charts more b/c it is going to make those bars really tell you a better story in relation to price around it. When we zoom in bars that are small and easy passes start to look big and powerful. It would be one of my first recommendations to most traders.

Again not sure if you were talking about that in your PPS

Best
Mike
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  #65213  
Old Jun 1, 2010 12:10am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Mike,

If I understand you correctly, you are stating that this is a pass trade and there was no need to analyze in detail, had I zoomed out and seen the location of the bar in the Big picture.

Can you pls comment on the EU daily setup that I posted also.

My charts which are posted here are not sharp, so I was looking for some help in this regard. May be some change in resolution setting.

Cheers
Novice198
Hey N

Yes being that zoomed in is creating a pinbar that in reality is a very tiny bar that holds little weight. Zoom out your chart 2-3 clicks and you will begin to see a better picture.

As for you eur/usd again this to me is a bit of a stretch trade. We can play TBL as continuations but this one is stuck in the middle of no where. IMO the better TBLs as continuations are ones where price creates say a clear swing low, then moves away and then later comes to break the TBL or TBH. See chart below


Best
Mike
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  #65241  
Old Jun 1, 2010 11:03am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Was going thru the charts and noticed a Trade on EG H4 TF. Is my analysis of the reason for entering the trade correct. Though I did not take this trade and don't intend to trade H4 as yet (at least for 3 to 6 months) I would just like to know if my reasoning or rationale is correct.

Entry pic
http://screencast.com/t/OGEyNThiZGI

TP1 pic
http://screencast.com/t/NDhmNDlkN2

Is it ok to post URL for pics or should I continue with actual pics.

Cheers
Novice198
Hey N

That is a much better way to play a continuation BEOB. I am not a huge fan of going that far back out to find a TP area, but certainly nothing wrong with it at all.

Well done
Mike
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  #65242  
Old Jun 1, 2010 11:04am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Already reached it's target,


Great looking BEOB forming on the Daily too. lets hope it closes that way
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  #65248  
Old Jun 1, 2010 3:47pm
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Originally Posted by Wakanapi View Post
Approx. like the one is forming on the USDCHF daily (some weird combo of outsidebar/pinbar/indecesionbar)? :P
Hey Wak

THis would still be a reversal bar more then a continuation BUT you are correct about the dynamics if it can close below the range. It MUST close below that range/round number for it to be traded for me. But yes you are sniffing them out now

Mike
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  #65255  
Old Jun 1, 2010 4:47pm
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Originally Posted by Wakanapi View Post
Thanks for the quick and excellent reply, however could you elaborate more when you are saying that it must close below the range before it's ok with you to make it a "tradable trade"? Whats going on in your head, tell me interesting to learn !

In my world, I'm willing to make a entry below the bar even if it doesn't close below it.

By the way, I've read the book by marting pring price patterns now. Excellent reading, it was exactly what I was looking for thanks.

Hey W

Firstly let me say that this is only the way I interpret this situation and go about it. There certainly isn't one right or wrong way so if you feel confident in your approach do not let this dissuade you.

The reason I am looking for it is simply to see who is in control. If we think of the round number as our battle line, and the consolidation as the "fight" area if we can close below it(blue box) we see the bears have gained control. We also can make that assumption b/c when the bulls tried to push it above the last high it was shot down very quickly showing there are more then willing sellers. But again without that close below that area I don't like to make the assumption that the buyers have given up. This is simply to keep me in check.

Hope that helps
Mike
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  #65266  
Old Jun 1, 2010 8:18pm
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Originally Posted by joelcf View Post


Nothing magical about a quarter, a third and a half retracement of a move - but I guess it is easier to sell trading systems if you claim an association to magic numbers and Leonardo da Vinci
agreed, very easy to eyeball the 50% of a move. Less lines, but if they help someone formulate a realistic trade plan I am all for it.
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  #65290  
Old Jun 2, 2010 1:33am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
On second thought after remembering James words here : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=47113,
maybe it is not a good idea after all. Looks like it's overdone selling here.

CY
I am so glad you found that post Cy
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  #65339  
Old Jun 2, 2010 10:46am
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Looking at GBP/CHF 4HR

Not the best bar but a great location imo,

BEOB at VBRN 0.7000

FTA 0.6900 RN and then bar highs at 0.8740 ish

Cons: Small bar and no divergance,

Lets see how it plays out
Hey J

I took this one for a quick hitter as well, bar size could have been bigger, we actually did have hidden divergence(see below), and all the other gbp/xxx pairs were very top heavy today. Was a good quick one in my book

Mike
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  #65352  
Old Jun 2, 2010 3:52pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I will have to put the I4+Bs at VBRNs in the A catagory setup. This one sure prove to be a great one Dan. ( The previous bullish PB didn't hurt.)
THis has been on my to do list for a few years now. We need longer days or something :P
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  #65354  
Old Jun 2, 2010 4:34pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Let me guess how that list catagory would look like Mike:

1. VBRN + I4+B. (check)

2. VBRN + . . .

3. VBRN + . . .

lol . .Don't get me wrong . . . I want to see your list . . .lol


Jim
hahaha yep pretty much my friend, you know me to well. What can I say, I have my thing
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  #65408  
Old Jun 3, 2010 12:10am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
He's been doing it for a long time. He has been where we have been, probable worst then us. So how he goes about trading is a good thing to watch and learn from.
yeah and to add to this. I think the more you do it, you just see it. You don't need the line there, or the fib there to see 50% of a move, or anything else really. I only put lines up now to post charts really. You just see it and learn it like you would anything else that takes practice. How much practice can vary GREATLY

So just keep at it
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  #65411  
Old Jun 3, 2010 12:24am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Yes, "Just Keep at It" is the deal.
There are no shorts to rewiring our minds to see these things.

Mike, it is hard to even imagine that you, Jarroo, Bundy, Bemac and others, ever had a hard time in learning to trade.
believe me I don't know anyone whos made it that didn't shed some tears along the way. Or at least think about quitting multiple times. The more I get beat up the harder I come back at something. Now the one thing you have to realize is that just b/c you put in the time doesn't mean you will automatically get it. You have to learn from your mistakes, and realize where your flaws are as a person that are translating into your trading as well. Poker was a big bonus for my outlook for me. But I am sure other things translate as well for people and it is good to try to find those links. It's a hell of a tough business to learn, but much more simplistic on the look back.

For those that want it to happen NOW, your chances are about as slim as it gets. You have to just put things into perspective and say I am here for the long haul.

Ups and downs are sure part of it though and I everyone I know has them. They make you better.

Lastly. It is the journey. I believe that about everything. The journey is what we look back on as the best part of everything in life.

Mike
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  #65414  
Old Jun 3, 2010 12:31am
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Having a hard time here! I'm 27 and wondering what's my forex status when I hit 37. Not giving up. Not giving up. Not giving up.
27 is crazy young, don't be thrown off by some of these 18 year olds we got around here even though they are superstars

Honestly it just needs to be a fire in you. I don't want to sound corny or lame. But if you have that fire to succeed it doesn't matter your age. Just do what James says, have a long term outlook and really give yourselves the best chance at succeeding.

At least it is what I believe
Mike
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  #65416  
Old Jun 3, 2010 12:32am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
fxeturn,
i'm 28. several here are +/-20y.o. (Sir mbqb11's turning 27 by December)

if u dont quit, success is inevitable.? ---supremeChaos
the only thing age is doing is stealing my hair, everything else I feel young as ever
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  #65421  
Old Jun 3, 2010 12:51am
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
mbqb11,
u just need to increase exercise, & decrease beer intake
i know u feel young, it is evident in your (timeless) avatar
lol exercise plenty, beer intake is not changing LOL
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  #65468  
Old Jun 3, 2010 11:27am
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Originally Posted by TiaForex View Post
Man, this is the holy grail written out if ever I saw it.

There are two places on the journey where trading looks dirt simple. The beginning and the end. The path in between can be a world of hurt. When you start it looks so easy and effortless, you can't wait to start, trade big positions, give other people your money to trade for you....anything just to get the cash register ringing. Then you get hurt and bruised (inevitably) and you get paralysed by fear. You start associating pulling the trigger with losing because you become gunshy. (After...
Aaron 37 is doing wonders for your wisdom
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  #65470  
Old Jun 3, 2010 11:56am
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Originally Posted by emiliolopez View Post
Hi, i just turned on my computer and saw this, im going to take it on demo,

Pros: the price hasnt been able to close below 2008-11-19 and 20's lows. (in my broker)
the pinbar is at a swing low
i was sitting on my hands waiting for a signal (this is a subjective pro) lol
i have a relative far FTA
there is much space

Cons:the price didnt reached my fibonaccis confluence level and i feel there is a risk the price will get there.

any comments apreciated

Attachment 484942
Hey E

You have your trade and mgmt just fine, especially for this setup. My view on the bar is simply to small versus that huge down move. Size matters for me when trying to pick a bottom. I also second your lack of confluence, so we are sort of left with small pinbar after a huge downtrend. For me that isn't enough confidence. But if you forced me to take it my mgmt would be the same as yours.

Best
Mike
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  #65492  
Old Jun 4, 2010 12:59am
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already talked about one of my fav setups this week, could we see another one of them. The squeeze

I'll be watching and waiting like usual


Mike
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  #65529  
Old Jun 4, 2010 7:18am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
You got a Man-crush bundy. lol
rofl
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  #65538  
Old Jun 4, 2010 1:06pm
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
what do you guys think about this pinbar?
Hey A

Beautiful area, but such a tiny bar at this time of day after such a huge move down makes me think profit taking. Again some people will ride those back up for a quick move, but those make me
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  #65542  
Old Jun 4, 2010 4:35pm
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dang this thread hit 8 million hits. James what did you do!
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  #65550  
Old Jun 4, 2010 5:08pm
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
That's OK Bundy. I've had Man-crush on you for a long time . .that's a . . . professional . . .trading . . .analysis . . .type . .crush . . .Oh man . . . I see what you mean. . . . lol.
bromance lolol
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  #65552  
Old Jun 4, 2010 5:26pm
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lol

Just viewed your recent webinar Mike. Top notch as always.
Thanks bud
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  #65560  
Old Jun 5, 2010 11:20am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Hey Mike,

Did you enter any trade on the EU based on your fav setup you posted above?
Price broke hard the lower TL even before NFP announcement.
If you did, do you mind sharing with us how u played it?
Did you placed a sell stop below the bar (that broke it) or did you wait for a retracement back to the TL looking for PA there (which never materialize though)?

CY
Hey Cy

In this case I was looking ONLY to go long. Obviously there were no long signals yet at the 1.2. Unfortunately it being friday may have halted any buyers from wanting to come in strong. Maybe next week though.

Best
Mike
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  #65561  
Old Jun 5, 2010 11:24am
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Originally Posted by elizo View Post
Hi,

this is my first post here. This is an amazing thread, so I'll do my best to absorb as much as possible while reading the entire thread. It will take a while but in the meantime, I would like to submit this to your opinion. Hopefully I won't bother anybody around.

This is a CHFJPY setup I have seen in daily chart. My rationale to go bearish slightly below the salmon rectangular area is:

1.- Overall trend is bearish.
2.- Daily BEOB
3.- Price came below the Fibo Confluence marked as salmon, so awaiting for a pullback there to maximize my entry...
Hey Elizo

Welcome to the thread

Both of your plans are more then fine with the understanding of the drawbacks of both which I think you do. This beob although with the trend is not in a lot of "space" so essentially a break of the low we are finding trouble. Now if you believe strongly in your trendline then it could be a breakout of sorts and continuation into the recent low or at least near the 77.50-78 area. I will be watching this pair with you as I am short the 4hr beob but have already begun to reduce my risk on it.

Again welcome glad to have you posting
Mike
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  #65564  
Old Jun 5, 2010 11:36am
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Oopsi!!

Snagit's taking some time having me get used to it.
still great up there ghous b/c it shows that we are see the same thing and that is a big deal for people who are new, a very big deal by my inbox

Thanks bud
Mike
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  #65571  
Old Jun 5, 2010 1:57pm
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Originally Posted by morfisher View Post
Hi Everyone,

I have just started to read this great thread....
Hey Mo

My advice is to use the most clear swing points for the timeframe you are looking at. I don't suggest to over do it. Now you can of course say plot fibs on the daily and then see what price is doing on the 4hr at your marked areas many do. I just wouldn't go overboard. One of the biggest pet peeves I have is when I see people using random swing points to plot a fib. To me this just takes all the value away from the fib. So stick to some clear swing points. I think your issues is you are trying to fine tune this entry and you are getting stuck in paralysis analysis. This is a very common mistake for new traders b/c they want that perfect entry. I say strip it all way. Stick to the daily/weekly only as James suggest. Forget about whats going on under that. Open a daily chart, analyze that chart and look for an entry on that chart. Until you can do that with success doing more then that just becomes cumbersome and usually holds back a trader. Again it is up to you but this is from my experience of what holds people back. They try to do to much. Can you build to that point absolutely. I personally always analyze and trade off the same timeframe. The only exception is my breakout trading. Simplicity rules in the markets.

A side note about your account. $500 is no where near enough to trade at 10,000 units which is a mini lot. If you have not learned about MM yet let me know and I will post some links. At 2% risk you can risk 10$ on that account. That would be a maximum of 10 pip stop loss. 10 pips at 1$ per point = 10$. A $500 should be with a nano lot broker where you can trade at pennies per pip. Even $5,000 account shouldn't be using a mini account. IMO up to 50k should be on micro lots. It just makes sense MM wise.

Hope this helps and welcome to the thread

Mike
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  #65596  
Old Jun 6, 2010 12:03pm
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Thanks Mike
Yes, I am really at a loss on MM, apart from the 2% bit. I can put in more than 500.00 say in the region of 10,000. I'm not sure what amount to start with to be honest.
On the charts I have loaded, I wondered if you would'nt mind talking me through them a bit. I have put the fibs on the monthly and I see it wanting to go up, on the daily it's gone past my 365 and I would normally have jumped in then when it cleared this ma. What would you add on these charts analysis and comment wise.
Thanks
mo
Hey Mo

Right now don't even worry about putting in real money. DEMO only, period. When you start small then you can worry about that and by then you will understand proper MM.

Please read these posts 100 times over.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...light=beginner

posts (18-33).

Now let me try to figure out your other question

Mike
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  #65597  
Old Jun 6, 2010 12:12pm
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Hi Mike
On the 4hour it passed the 365 at 1.0626 and this is where I would look to go in and put my SL below the ma.

Thanks
Hey Mo

From what I can gather you were simply trying to go long when price moved past a moving average. i am not to sure why you posted every timeframe. We don't want to just blindly go long when price crosses a MA. We want to look for confluence and then confirming price action.

Here is an example(and I am not sure how far you are have gone through this thread yet, but you want to start by learning the different bars James teaches, then go through and begin to understand confluence).

On this chart, notice how simple I keep things. One timeframe. Using your example about the 365 on the daily although I was reluctant b/c these aren't ideal setups for a new trader to PA.

Notice we have the 365, then we drew a fib and the 38.2 lines up with the 365. But now and most important notice the highlighted blue area. This is a PPZ, that also lines up with both the moving average and the fib retracement. Now we have our important area to watch, our confluence(multiple layers of things adding up). Now we wait for PA to confirm our trade. Notice where the 2 arrows area we have two BUOBs. Not the most ideal locations and that was why I was reluctant to show you this one(we want to see them at a deeper swing low that moves away from price. But these gave a very good tip off that price was going to break higher.

Again for now, keep it basic. Go back learn the bar setups back and front. Learn what makes a good bar from a great bar. Learn the different confluence and then begin to piece it together slowly. Go back and re-read post 1. Demo only, forget real money until you can prove on demo your success.

I hope this helps
Mike
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  #65647  
Old Jun 7, 2010 11:43am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
That thing's been all over the place recently,

here's a chart.

g.

Very nice G

Also you guys are going to drive yourselves made by watching the daily for potentials with this much time left. Starting cruising your charts about an hour before when things are more settled.

Here would be a better area to watch into


Best
Mike
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  #65649  
Old Jun 7, 2010 1:01pm
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Originally Posted by Jonnyislost View Post
Hi Novice,

Perhaps "space" was not the term I should have used. However Mike posted an excellent video in this thread about the importance of space (hope he doesn't mind me reposting it here http://drop.io/cfnoat3 )


What I mean with this location is, We are at a swing low point, and the FTA is very close (1.4260 as you stated)

We have no idea what type of order flow we have below those bar lows, as the price hasn't visited that area for over a year.

So personally if I was to play it, I'd be taking full profit before those...
nope not at all J thanks. I don't know how long that stays up there I should prob get that in the guest

Mike
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  #65651  
Old Jun 7, 2010 1:04pm
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Divergence should only be used in sideways markets. Using divergence during strong trends gives many many false signals. Take the macd/rsi off your charts completely for better trading.
I would disagree here Dan, although what you are saying is smart. If you are in a strong trending market, it could show divergence for a long time. If you just try to base your trade off divergence your going to eat it in a trending market. The point is to understand not only that price might be oversold/overbought but then to use that information appropriately. So in a strong trending market I like to see divergence, but I will still wait for a good location with a strong bar to confirm things. But I have to disagree about taking it off your charts, I find it a very valuable "tool". Of course every trader finds different things valuable like those that glean value from MAs and I don't. But I don't tell people to pull them off.

The key to anything is only use something if it adds value.

Best
Mike
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  #65657  
Old Jun 7, 2010 1:28pm
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
this one...

If it's a trend line it is erroneously drawn. A trend line is either used to connect only lows or only highs and once price breaks through it, it looses it's value completely unless you want to watch price retrace to it for the first time after the break.

Your trend line has been violated multiple times and hence has no value.

g.
Hey G

Actually many people use trendlines in that manner. Think of them as diagonal PPZ. Again I would be nervous seeing newer traders doing that before doing the real basics and adding as they go. But that can just be a product of how I learn so that is unfair of me too :P

Mike
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  #65660  
Old Jun 7, 2010 1:36pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Great, synchronization there.

Yes, I have always used them like this and was taught that way.
and that is what James wants people to do. Take what they already know and like and add what he teaches. You can't go wrong. Really. Just have to put in the time and see where you land.

Keep at it pin

Mike
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  #65665  
Old Jun 7, 2010 1:42pm
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I see. Maybe the most obvious ones could still be used as "ppzs with an angle" just that I haven't seen them being used that way yet, but then again I haven't been trading for 10 years,

New information for sure.

g.
Yeah it is more common then you might think. I used to experiment with them, but found it can lead to just more analysis paralysis if not kept simple. I do not use them, in case anyone was gonna ask.

Mike
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  #65687  
Old Jun 7, 2010 11:10pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Hey Mike, quick question. On this chart I understand the PPZ in blue is because of the previous PB. My question is how do you come up with the range for your PPZ?
Hey Spookie,

I just eye ball it. In the chart above the reason I made it lower is b/c if price is able to get under that last low we will begin to have divergence which I would prefer to see when price takes out that prior low. There wasn't any more thought to that particular box size though.

Best
Mike
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  #65690  
Old Jun 7, 2010 11:21pm
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Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Thanks Mike. You reminded me to not only look at what price is doing but also think about what I would like to see it do for an even better set up.
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  #65756  
Old Jun 8, 2010 8:01pm
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Originally Posted by vasco25 View Post
Hi.

I?am quite new posting here, but already here for a while.

After read a lot off the posts on this topic some time ago, even made a doc with 99 charts posted on the topic for reference, i think back then great stuff, this seams easy. Wrong thought to have.

Never have managed to do thing's wright, always something missing. Wrong interpretation off the charts, kicked on the stop loss (and then the trade goes in my way ), and so on.

Some days ago cleaned all old stuff, and decided to make a new attempt, after make a recap from...
Hey V

Yep it takes time, a lot of time usually. As for your questions, brokers with different closing times will show different aggregations of price. Simply the forex market is not a centralized market so this is why you see different bars. It is no big deal just simply trade what you see is the easiest answer. As for your charts, those are all pinbars, but the second and third I like the best. Now remember though the bars are one small piece, next is to find the best locations and finally develop your understanding of trade mgmt.\

Also don't forget to follow the j16 minimum req laid out on post 1. They wil help develop you in the right way

Ask more questions if you have
Mike
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  #65774  
Old Jun 9, 2010 1:35am
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Hey Ghous,
Texas is like a small U.S. We have most every geographical feature that you find in the U.S.

Mountains, Plains,Desert, Beaches,Forest, Etc.

We're not all that different. We all get lumped together as cowboys with a hard accent. There are only a handful of real cowboys left. I know this because I was one for 12 years.

Good trading
Mike
Jerry Jones would say there are more then a handful of cowboys left
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  #65780  
Old Jun 9, 2010 2:03am
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Hi Jonny,

I took this trade based on the weekly PB. Closed partially at 1.6640 and balance at 1.6605 for a result of +0.4R. Once again no sweat while the Trade played out even though it was in DD also. Someone said if the loss or win has perceptible effect on the traders mood then he / she is risking too much on the Trade. I have dropped down from 2 to 1% per Trade (on Demo) and I am a changed man. I don't want Trading to take over my life style but want to Master Trading.
The irony is that I saw this thread about six months back but the number...
Glad to see you drop down novice. THere is this general notion that 2% rule is where we should all start. Now while it beats the heck out of what most peoples MM looks like, our risk per trade has a huge effect on both our ROI and our Drawdows. Most people ignore the drawdown aspect and are always pushing what is possible by just bumping it another % or 2

Mike
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  #65804  
Old Jun 9, 2010 8:50am
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Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Mike or Jarroo will come up with a much better answer Eli.

I would recommend not doing this stuff at early stages of your learning curve. Just trade and manage the TF you took your trade in.
Cause it gets very confusing when you see...

I agree with you bud. i think it is best to keep it as simple as possible and try to stick to one timeframe. I only tend to trail out on a timeframe lower on breakout trades, or trades that just take off so fast that locking in profit makes the most sense. There is no real right/wrong to say do this or that. But Nasir's advice to keep it simple is a right answer in my book

Mike
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  #65805  
Old Jun 9, 2010 8:53am
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Originally Posted by cyborg View Post
Hello,


I am reading this thread since some months and try to win against myself, only taking the best setups.
Not easy I can tell you!

But I have a question please.
Could someone please explain, how to draw the fibolines correct?
Where do I start and in which direktion.
I try to figure it out some time now, with mixed results.

Thanks to all who contribute to the very helpful and interesting thread!

Chris

Hey Chris

When looking for a retracement to go long we draw from Swing Low to Swing high.

When looking for a retracement to go short, we draw from swing high to swing low

Example of looking to go short(and just flip it to go long).

Just think about the retracment numbers as percentages. The lower numbers should be closest to current price as the retracement represents a closer % of the previous move. As you move further away it is a larger retracement/ percentage of the move.

Best
Mike
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  #65821  
Old Jun 9, 2010 11:47am
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Originally Posted by ITradeDaily View Post
I'd love to get one of the more advanced practitioners of James16 to answer this question on trade management. This is a situation that I'm current in now:

A nice double-bottom occurred last night. I entered the trade and let it sit overnight (of course, I set a reasonable stop loss). Now, about 16 hours later, the pair is basically flat (looks like a doji). However, there is still plenty of time left in the trading day.

At what point do you say, "I'm going to let this run" or "It's not going to do anything, break-even is fine". I know that...
Hey IT

Can you post your chart with the reasons for taking the trade? Was this just a touch trade?

Thanks
Mike
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  #65826  
Old Jun 9, 2010 11:58am
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Originally Posted by ITradeDaily View Post
I've attached it here. Basically, I saw it as a double bottom counter-trend and I took the trade. The chart will also show my TP and SL.
Hey IT

IMO this is not a double bottom as enough time didn't go by before a restest of the low. It is more of a double bottom if you go to the 4hr. But also notice that it did test the low 5 bars back with that neutral bar/pinnish looking bar. So you then seem to have bought under this bar after price already "bounced" off this area. To me that is setting yourself up for trouble.

IMO if you are new to S/R and what not it is better to start by learning to trade with Price Action bar confirmation, rather then just touch trading as you really need to learn good locations back and front.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  #65827  
Old Jun 9, 2010 11:59am
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Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
I don't see any PA on the 4H nor the 1H. Price just shot up breaking 1.2 efforrtlessly. Do you see anything (according to J16 principles)that might point to long.
MIke (mbq), you are watching this I know, did you get to enter?

CY
Nope just watching here CY

Mike
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  #65830  
Old Jun 9, 2010 12:11pm
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Originally Posted by ITradeDaily View Post
Yes, that is helpful, thanks. So help me understand the better entry point - would it have been better to wait to get beyond the low of that pinnish looking bar? Or what would have been the better strategy here?

Finally, I know you like to look for those "A+" trades. To me, this looks like one because it's on a daily chart in a trending market. How do you grade this one?
Hey IT

My opinion there was nothing to do. If you had a pending buy order as an aggressive touch trade, it should have been pulled if you saw price bounce on that candle I pointed out, not placed there after. IMO we should be waiting for bar confirmations at nice areas. There are no nice bar confirmations.

Look at my chart and waiting for an area to appear that is solid and wait for bar confirmations. At this location now it is simply a waiting game. Price dropped like a rock and we don't want to be under that falling rock without something worth pushing with.

Best
Mike
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  #65832  
Old Jun 9, 2010 12:12pm
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Originally Posted by aserbfx View Post
buob on DuPont. any comments about the ppz?
yes!

Now IT check that chart out, how you can clearly see a triple bottom, and price touches the same area, boucnes - then moves AWAY, notice the 3rd time back we got a BUOB.

This is what we want to do

Mike
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  #65835  
Old Jun 9, 2010 12:22pm
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Originally Posted by ITradeDaily View Post
OK, I can see that. So, just to be clear, you would have entered at the open of the bar *after* the confirmation, right?
Hey IT

In asers pic we would enter on a Break of the HIGH of the BUOB(the one marked with the arrow) itself, it is a pending buy stop order above that high

Best
Mike
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  #65855  
Old Jun 9, 2010 9:15pm
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Originally Posted by gc7 View Post
Hi everyone, this is my first post in this thread, but have already read a ton of the material, and have learnt so much already. Thanks to all, especially the senior members, who still take time to help others.

Just posting these charts to receive feedback as to whether the PB on H8 would be a reasonable trade. On H8 it has bounced off quite a bit of confluence:
- both 365 and 150 ema's
- trend line
- confluence of two fibs at 50% and 61.8%
My concern is whether I am trading into too much traffic. I thought my first trouble area would be around...
Hey Grant

welcome, glad to hear you are learning a lot that's what we love and questions LOL

Yes you are correct this isn't the best trade in terms of space, but we can still gauge where the trouble areas are and then make an educated decision if it is still worth it(that answer will vary). Your target although may be hit is a bit optimistic in terms of what could stop it on the way up. There is a 2 bar low just above us here and then further we would be trading into the 1.0500 major round number and PPZ.

I hope this clarifies a bit what I personally see

Mike
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  #65858  
Old Jun 9, 2010 9:57pm
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Originally Posted by novice198 View Post
Mike,

In this case we should have entered on the break of the wick of the BUOB and then set targets as per FTA.

Cheers
Novice 198
Hey Novice

Yes if you are trading on the conservative wait for a break, then your buy is above the high of the BUOB(some amount of pips you are comfortable) and then proceed to manage it according to what is your plan

Mike
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  #65863  
Old Jun 9, 2010 10:13pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Jarroo & indeed anyone else.
Obviously, I am lacking something basic and racking my brain out to try and find it.
This rant, is probably going to be long so, I will post it in pieces as I work out what it is I am missing, as I work it out or don?t work it out, whichever as, I think the process irrespective of the conclusion is important....
I personally identify a trend simply and this is all I do

Bot left to top right the trend is up
Top left to bot right the trend is down
side to side, it is sideways.

Period. For me.

Now you are talking just about catching a reversal bar and then knowing it will trend. Well you have a variety of bars. Reversal bars against the major trend(see above definition). You have reversal bars that will put you back with the major trend. And then you have reversal bars within a sideways market.

So for me it is not about over complicating. It's about a good setup and then determine the make up of that setup. What type of market you are in and how use that to your advantage.

I'll start with bar 4 since the rest I can't see an am not by my charts. 3 is a pinbar and it is a reversal of the current up move. Will it start a new trend ? No one knows that. How do you decide to hold? Depends on your mgmt style and how it moves as you enter it. THe larger a bar at an extreme the more strength it usually holds. THis also applies for bar 8 and also the bar b/w 5 and 6 which you did not point out for some reason and is one of the better buobs.

Bar 3 is a continuation buob and not the traditional places James teaches new traders to take them. They are powerful if played right as they are with the trend and if taken as a breakout back in over a range can be easy to manage as they take off.

Bar 5 is not any j16 bar. This is not a pinbar. the open and close must be within the prior bar and the bar must have a higher high then the previous bar. This is ghous IPB which I will not go over here as it is not traditional j16.

Bar 6. Would be a pin on a very shallow pullback with the trend, poor close, and never breaks the low so never active. I see these pins misplayed the most.

Bar 8 great reversal bar at a swing high this is A+ stuff. Now overall at this point price is going side to side so I wouldn't be too hung up beyond managing it based on that bar and what is around.
]
Bar 9. CLose enough to a DBHLC but at a swing low, and not that traditional swing high we want them up. Could be a continuation bar but IMO not enough to trade off PERSONALLY.


Again the above are opinions on how i view the market
Mike
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  #65868  
Old Jun 9, 2010 10:33pm
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Mike

Thanks for your great analysis, it is indeed wonderful to read your post and see the total enthusiasm you have for it.

I know some of the better bars were not chosen, that is because I don't want to curve fit while I am trying to get my brain in gear in the right direction. I also think it is important to make mistakes with these bars, and learn why they did not work out.

As I said, this is a personal rant while trying to work things out so I can internalize things. People here are truly great and have offered me some great insights. But,...

Hey Pinbar

What I should have ended my rant on but I was outside, was that I worry about people over complicating before grasping the basics(not saying you are necessarily over complicating per se, but I can see you churning away and don't want you to veer to far off) . And those basics are POWERFUL. A powerful bar at a prime location is an AMAZING thing. Everything else aside. Look at jarroos bar he just pointed out which I am sure you saw. Forget about everything else that you have ever learned but a beautiful bar at a swing high there. Then work from there. I think the mindset should be really more simple in terms of what works vs trying to make everything work. And over time you will grow into yourself as a trader and the things that bring your trading to that next level. But it is supremely important to get there by doing the core basics that we teach in this thread first. This of course goes for all those reading this and is just a stepping stone for me.

To take it a step further there are 3 bars that jump out at me that I just think anyone could make money with. The one Jarroo pointed out, the BUOB at the swing low, and the Big pinbar on the way back up again. 3 bars, 3 beautiful locations and NOTHING else! Amazing stuff in my eyes. Really think about the chart I am posting right now, and forget everything else ever but the beautiful bars in a clear nice area. THey SMACK you in the face, or they should(or will eventually). Nothing else here.

That is powerful stuff my friends

Mike
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  #65878  
Old Jun 10, 2010 12:32am
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Originally Posted by gc7 View Post
Thanks Mike, Jim for the advise. I think I will skip that one, but am curious how the MM would work for a trade that is in a bit of traffic.
Mike, from what I understand from some of your posts, you would not trail under those circimstances. Would that mean exit everything at the first trouble area? Or could you enter AFTER the first trouble area, from which point you may have a cleaner run?
Jim, are you still in that H4 trade?

Grant
Hey Grant

If I still like a trade that is coming into some heavy traffic I will most likely take full profit at that area, or at worst reduce my stop greatly and see if we can break it and then that trouble area becomes a good place to further reduce our stop. Many people will take 1/2 off at these areas and get their stop to b/e, or just move stop to b/e all together. Some like jarroo will sometimes take 1/2 off and then reduce their stop so that they get stopped out at b/e but use that 1/2 profit so they can keep their stop a bit further away.

Keep playing with different ways and see what feels comfortable as you demo

Mike
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  #65932  
Old Jun 10, 2010 10:27am
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Originally Posted by ghous View Post
Hey Ben,

Good logical question,

while Mike is taking a quick power nap I'll try to jump in,

In my opinion both the cases are worlds apart, and what makes them so different is the information they contain. A pin bar even on the weekly carries less information (or price action) than a tightening range on the same tf or even on a lower tf.

When price breaks out of a range it can be expected to return to test the break out point, simply because it needs to ensure what it is looking to do is backed with enough orders in the market which...
THanks G, good stuff buddy
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  #65935  
Old Jun 10, 2010 10:54am
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
I was just illustrating the swing high/low concept that many seem to think is something you don't know until history proves you are right....
great post BUNNY
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  #65937  
Old Jun 10, 2010 11:11am
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
If a bullish bar's high and low encompasses the previous bar's high and low, but the open and close is within the previous bar's open and close, is it still a BUOB? This is rarely seen, but last month's EUR/AUD monthly bar was just what I described. A rare case like that, is it still treated as a usual PA, or has to be played differently?
Hey fx

That gives it a more neutral look most of the time. I consider those neutral bars, a lower close there brings it more to a beob then anything, certainly not a buob, as the close most be with in the top 1/4 of the bar to be a buob, and lower 1/4 to be a beob. But to me the eur/aud has the open and close near the middle and maybe tails aren't even but certainly looks like a see saw battle occurred giving it a neutral feel

Best
Mike
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  #65944  
Old Jun 10, 2010 8:18pm
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Anyone played this BUOB which covered 2 BRNs on Aussie? I passed it because it didn't look like it has a lot of space, but if anyone played it, it worked out real nice hitting 0.85 for 200 pips. Just wondering now if it will repeat the bearish move like what little pin on 28th May did as the 365 EMA is still on top giving a bearish pressure. On the other hand, double bottom has just formed, but a triple bottom or even a range is possible.

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looked like a good one
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  #65954  
Old Jun 11, 2010 12:59am
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Hey guys, just started to demo the daily charts using the James16 material. Here is a DHLC I found on the USD/JPY daily. Good set up? Does the PPZ at 92.80 make this trade a little sketchy or would you take it and TP at the PPZ and set your SL to BE?
Hey Ben

The 92.80ish area would be a perfect place to do "something". Be it move to b/e, take full profit, reduce your stop etc. There isn't necessarily the right answer here. But the key is if price reversed there would we know why? The answer is a big yes, and that is where the building blocks will start

Mike
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  #65956  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:07am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
1: Is at a great area and the BEOB spans 4 candles right off the 0.7000 RN.
ahh I had a sigh of relief for you when you posted this chart. I can see the light getting brighter for you

Mike
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  #65958  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:22am
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Originally Posted by forexben View Post
Here is a pin on the daily GPB/USD. It's looks pretty good at first glance. It's at a swing low, good size with plenty of space.

If you look a bit closer, the open and close are JUST squeezing into the top third of the pin. The main worry though is that its going to run into multiple PPZ's and the BRN of 1.5000.
yep very nice ben, I can never convince myself to trade into those round numbers like that with that type of bar, in rare circumstances it is just too good to pass up and a matter of pips and you can place your buy above the round number and use it for mgmt. But in a case like that you are better of waiting for a bar to close above the round number and enter on a pullback to the round number.

Mike
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  #65960  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:30am
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Damn nasir ! That's pretty good. lol
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  #65962  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:32am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I know you saw it coming to Mike.

Let me ask you Mike, how many times have you seen this senario play out like this ?
enough that I am still around
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