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james16 Chart Thread
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Apr 5, 2010 3:01pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbh123
Congratulations James16 and everyone involved with this great thread! I am extremely grateful for everything I've learned from this thread, James16, and all of the other regular contributors.
What a great place to learn, let's keep it going another 1000.
Cheers!
Cory
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Unreal stuff, can you imagine the look on Jims face if on pg 1 2005 you said this would hit 7+ mill views and 4000 pgs? He would have laughed so hard
I love not only what there is to learn here, but also what this thread represents on how people should deal with other people.
Congrats big guy
Mike
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Apr 5, 2010 4:27pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
I was busy with Yen and missed it altogether.
You had a plane and you sticked to it.
But i don't see any good reason (except that PPZ reaction) to close the whole position. You could've closed half your position and leave rest at BE.
Look how nicely that 4H PB...
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which 4hr pin? If you mean his weekly pin I think he nailed the perfect way to play a bar of that size in that location. That is exactly what my thinking would have been too.
Mike
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Apr 5, 2010 6:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewinTown22
Sorry for my ignorance..
I have a question.. I'm new to this and i see very detailed chart programs
What program is it? or am i only allowed to use my brokers program? I'm still only around post 124th
Thank you...
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Hey Newintown
Most of us are using mt4 for our charting. That doesn't necessarily mean were trading with them. There are 100s of mt4 brokers. Do a google for FXpro mt4 and download a demo.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 1:22am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
No this 4H one i was goin to post it but my internet got bad. I know that it's not the best one to take a new trade but is't it as a decent indication to hold the one we are already in.
Thanks.
.
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I guess it really depends on the trader. I wouldn't personally use a 4hr pin to keep me in a weekly trade. I used to try to finesse things like that but found it very difficult to not get paralysis that way. Certainly nothing wrong with it though.
Best
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 11:16am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jagpip
Anyone from the PF site mgmt, please PM me. I'm facing some account issue but not getting any respond from what I think is the website mgr email. Tks.
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Hey Jag
I can not PM you here as you only have one post. Email me through the contact us forum on the site(either private or guest part)
Thanks
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 11:22am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69
Nasir,
you know what I have learned more while studying how to trade fx and what a pinbar is?
...to set up my study plan in a logical way and to find my way to deal with this!
there were so many things and books and forums and charts and bla bla that the most difficult things to do was to set up a soustainable study plan and trustable people to rely on out there!
I spent my time in finding the right path to follow, the right material to study and the right people to trust as tutor, that time was the best spent one, have the impression I was...
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air traffic controller, dang at least we know you are good under pressure
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 12:21pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Those of you who played(and were patient) to wait for that break got paid off nice today 
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Apr 6, 2010 3:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jagpip
Thanks Mike. I'd done that. Please check it out. Tks.
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Hey Jag I have not gotten anything in my inbox
are you using
http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestcontact.html
make sure to check my name off( I just tested it to make sure it is working too)
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 3:53pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov
Hi Guys,
I'm looking at the daily pin on NZD/CAD that is forming, I've identified 2 first resistance areas - would love to know what one you guys think. I'd like to go for 7150, but will it get there? (if it goes that way  )
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Looks good to me DD, bascially into .7100 then 7150(both rd numbers no surprises here  )
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 7:20pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S
Also an interesting setup in the weeklies
Although we have what constitutes a fortnightly pin off 0.9 BRN, I didn';t take this because there was no discernable swing low.
Is this what some of you guys would describe as a continuation play? I'm really scared I am in danger of overtrading here.
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yeah this daily would be a continuation play as the BUOB is at a swing high. Tough here as not much room to go before that last swing high and round number. For those that like to move stops quickly it is the area to watch, sometimes you get a hard break. So sort of a semi-breakout play. Not worth it in my book as just too much coming up that can hold us back. The biggest thing that can hurt people are simply trading the bars themselves(ie seeing a buob and just assuming we will keep going). Just have a plan going into it always at the least.
Best
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 7:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Would love some PA here. Currently a 4 hr BEOB, but very small, not worth it (to me anyway). Would anyone consider it given location? (sorry, don't know why 3 charts show, and won't let me delete 3rd)
Attachment 452454
Attachment 452457
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dunno about a reversal of such a strong trend with that, but I sure like your grey line there when we make it back there  We might be nearing the RAC zone? Right ahead of the 61.8
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Apr 6, 2010 8:05pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jlr
Thanks Mike. Yeah, if I was in there, no way I take a loss when price hits that grey line, I know that much at least lol.
Rac zone ahead of the 61.8? Not exactly seeing it. I thought the zone we are at now was pretty strong, maybe not though. It was the only reason I even considered it to be a remotely tradeable bar, because of the location.
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Hey J
Your larger Fib is approaching the 61.8 from what I have seen Rac stands up at a lot of these mid way b/w the 50 and 61.8. Was really just guessing on that one, I don't know too much about it!
Mike
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Apr 6, 2010 8:58pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jagpip
Yeah that's the link I used. Your name is checked. And I'd send a few.
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Yep I got it now, check your email now
Thanks
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 12:11am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos
Hello,
i have experienced a similar situation.
the possible differences are that my situation was 5-10x worse than yours,
but i can work under pressure, & my learning curve is a bit 'fast'.
despite these positive facts, i struggled immensely.
it's VERY difficult to trade well when you are under pressure. DO NOT trade live now. u will most likely lose all of your $500. & if that happens, it will aggravate your problem/s.
my suggestions
be VERY frugal, cut a lot of unnecessary expenses, find a job ASAP,
while learning/reading this thread...
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I missed that post, but PLEASE PLEASE take SC's advice here. Trying to trade for a living is the WORST thing you can add to your situation. Save that money, keep your head up and find a job and demo in the mean time. Things will get better, just keep positive!
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 12:11am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus
Glad it's useful Jon. It's helped me speed up my learning curve tremendously. =)
You know Mike, things are coming a full circle for me, I remember when I 1st came to this thread some months back I was like, "what's he going on about this not just trading the bar thing? PA is PA isn't it?" LOL.
Am beginning to see the efficacy of "Location". Oh how much goes behind that word. It's like the clock on the wall that tells the time, but one does not see the complex mechanics that allow it to keep time accurately. Actually, I'd venture to say...
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Apr 7, 2010 1:37am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steven_leo
hello mike.....may i ask something about the trade.....is it not worthy because of it is near a ressistance.....?i am still learning about PA...would like to get as much info as i can..... 
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Hey Steven
yes you are correct. Basically when we play these bars as continuations they are in my view more tricky for people. When you buy a new high like this you are usually trading right into a trouble area and people mis manage them. I love continuations don't get me wrong but the "story" has to be right for me(usually in a breakout sense, which this aud/usd has some of that, with the trendline).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 1:39am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khairul81
Hi guys,my name is kai and I am from Singapore.I have been reading the james16 thread for 2mths and have been demoing on the mt4.I have been profitable on demo and I am happy that I found this thread on FF.
It took me a while to read up Some of the threads and i don't think anybody could! Haha.
Anyway i have a question on what is a Rac zone and a Touch trade? I am hoping to get a detailed answer maybe with some examples.
Kai
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Hey Kai
I don't really know to much about Raczefx stuff, I know sometimes he watches some nice swing points and the retracement just shy of the 61.8(esp when it lines up with a PPZ). But I will let others clarify that.
As for a touch trade, that is simply having a pending limit order. So say you see strong resistance above head, instead of waiting for a price bar, you simply play a pure sell or a touch of that area. It is more aggressive, but if nailed you get a real nice small stop and can get in the beginning of the move that Price bars you have to wait for more information.
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 12:07pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khairul81
hey man tanx.been reading your posts and others.i hope to be conservative trader like you one day and just be picky.are you as picky when you are finding a girlfriend?? Hahaha
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hahahah you cracked me up dude
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Apr 7, 2010 12:15pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
Hi
In the chart below Jim has circled a DBLHC in what looks like a downtrend from beginning of April?
Could it also be taken as a 4 bar matching low? Or if we were live at the close of the first bar of the DBLHC , could we take it as a 3BML and expect the downtrend to continue?
Or does it only become a ML if the downtrend continues?
Thanks
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Hey Scotty
I think I know what you are asking but if I missed please re-ask.
That 4bar matching low, or also DBLHC(it could be seen as a multiple bar low higher close) can give us two signals. Both a reversal signal as it did, and then you can even play a sell below all those matching lows as a strong signal for a breakout. So both ways. I might have missed here though
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 12:25pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenkoo
Hi, i have a question regarding the PB play. Since the low of the 2nd bar does not penetrate the PB low, how long does one have to wait before concluding that this setup is invalid?
For education purpose, can you please illustrate how you would plan to manage this trade? Attached mine for your kind pointers if i were to be in this trade.
IMHO, this is a great PB setup!
Triple top + BRN 90.00 + Confluence of 50% fib on weekly timeframe + in the direction of major trend... Nice!!!
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Hey Kenk
Technically speaking the bar is valid until the low breaks, or the high breaks. So if that high breaks first then the bar is no invalid, and not technically valid till the low breaks. How long you wait till it breaks is trader dependent. I personally almost always cancel my order if the next bar does not break the low. This is a way I measure momentum in the market. As for your trade plan, I would be more in the camp of taking full profit at that first area. Only since the move up has been pretty strong and overall this pair is pretty choppy as of late, so I like to get out with my profit. But there is NOTHING wrong with that trade plan you laid out. It really comes back to the trader for that.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 12:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by khairul81
Hey Mike,it must be true then you are picky about girls!! haha
Anyway took 5 trades for the past 3hrs.All winners..Thanks To this thread especially Jim,Mike,Nasir and other senior traders.
I would like to post some charts but how do u put the chart in? I tried but it only shows the link and whats the proper size?
Kai
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hahah Aaron would crack up as he knows weekend mike, vs weekday Mike LOL
As for posting a chart. Simply right click your mt4 window. Save Picture as, then check the box that says As is. Save to somewhere on your computer. Then under the box where you are writing a reply is a manage attachments button. Click this and then find your file and upload..
Best
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 1:11pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ira
Guys and girls, need your feedback on these. I hate trading against the trend, but this pin was huge + div. It is demo.
And the second, I was thinking to take it or not, and decided to skip due to the traffic to the left and price making HL. Was my thinking correct?
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Hey Ira
Firstly this isn't actually a pin. It didn't close within the prior bar which is your first sign of weakness from the bears.
IMO actually that pin is quite small Versus that huge uptrend. If you zoom out a bit you get a better view. I think w4e will see a topping on this pair but look for some substantial PA to do that. So this small pin then took off to that first trouble area and bounced.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 4:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
here is the trend you're trading against.... maybe wait for a retracement and look for PA to get in short?
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bingo, keep those charts zoomed out guys/gals. It makes a world of difference when you are zoomed in every bar looks like it is a biggie :P
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 6:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beebolbod
?? seems you're right ??
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you can see Jim sort of talking himself out of it in the first post there lol. Sometimes we look back and realize a great trade we missed. Case in point for me nzd/usd 4hr yest shoot of like a rocket.
That would be my guess as this happens to me, can't nail em all I try to shake it off pretty quick these days(I haven't taken a trade all of april yet and thats when it can start to sneak up on you on the ones you pass on then look back and turned out great)
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 6:34pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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heres the nzd/usd from yest, there was also a pin on another feed, and then this dblhc. I talked myself out of it.
Benji sure didnt 
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Apr 7, 2010 6:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unlv_tj
Mike, what did you not like about the NZDCAD pin bar yesterday?
Just curious, I need to learn more and more.
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Hey tJ
My overall issue was mostly with the size of the bar vs how strong the downward move has been(although good divergence and round number). In my opinion if you employ a pretty tight mgmt style these are fine, but I tend to be a bit more lenient in letting things work themselves out. This was similar to the reason I passed on the nzd/usd 4hr bar but in hindsight the bar was fine and I think I was just a bit trigger shy(still happens to me and I try to just listen to my gut as much as possible during the time to enter the trade). So as we can see the nzd/cad has hit the first trouble area, so one might be seeing it breaks and minizing stop loss. So this sort of gets back to what I was saying before. 2 people can call a bar different grades. This is what trips people up too.
Let me know if that makes sense
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 7:19pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TiaForex
Looking back on this one I feel the same. I have no problem with passing on a trade and seeing it go to the moon if it's within my rules to pass. And I certainly don't look back and judge whether I should have taken a trade by whether it "worked out", but I think I got gunshy with this bad boy (that was for you Mike :P). There was a lot of traffic but it was far enough away to watch for a reversal and the bar was fine. Sometimes when you trade as little as me (with these methods anyway) you can get gunshy after a few days without trading. Especially...
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agreed I do think I missed this one though especially with multiple feeds showing us some bull.
Onwards though, bothered me for about a minute to be honest.
Yankees time!
Mike
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Apr 7, 2010 9:18pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skinfx
Hi Mike,
May i noe the first trouble area for your nzd/cad? izzit 0.7036??
thanks,
skin
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Hey Skin
We hit the first one today, but the way we hardly stalled makes me think the second area should get hit now too
Best
mike
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Apr 8, 2010 12:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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two small very counter trend bars. Are they tradable? You bet. But did you take notice of where price would have trouble?
Last edited by mbqb11, Apr 8, 2010 1:04pm
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Apr 8, 2010 1:03pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nustra
hi all,
just wanted to ask, is this what you guys mean by touch trade.
in this 4H chart of GY, price hit a BRN and a TL, formed an IB and zoomed off.
please let me know if i got it right.
thanks,
nustra
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Hey Nustra
A touch trade would be if you put a buy at the trendline/RN/etc in anticipation of the bounce. So you would not use price action just simply buy limit.
Best
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 1:08pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan
 :.
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Is it my spelling that is the highlight there LOL i am not a good one
OR you missed those trouble areas?
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 1:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ppfx
i think he meant this
nassir you should put a R cause you just invented a word that i think will be used a lot in this thread 
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ghahah beats me if it is tradeable or tradable both get a red underline from my spell check without that I am a lost human 
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Apr 8, 2010 1:59pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
haha  I love it. The world's most adept (24 now? year old trader) couldn't pass spelling.
Eat that, Mike's third grade teacher!
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spelling and grammar, I got killed at
and it's 26 , wth years go fast now
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Apr 8, 2010 2:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
So you started trading when you were 18  cool.
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yeah, and me and Mike also use to be the young guys around here till you and your posse came through HAHA 
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Apr 8, 2010 2:54pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
Dan, this is the best finish to any day that I've had in a while! You're killin me dude. P.S. Daily eur/jpy looks like it may end gorgeous. Put on your happy faces ladies and gents.
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haha
lets see if we can push it above the 135 though 
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Apr 8, 2010 3:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Around 9 months ago.
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unreal stuff, 9 months in I was dripping a sandwich on my keyboard and buying or selling where the mustard landed
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Apr 8, 2010 3:39pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
Is this a pullback to the breakout of the double top on the daily?
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I think we are sort of in between. It really IMo depends on where price wants to hold. Above the 125 PPZ, or below. Trend has been strong down so on would think sellers are going to be coming in again, but if we can remain above 125 it could hold that way too. The daily pin would have to close above it for me personally to consider trading it.
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 4:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues
ok thanks. If it doesnt make 125 would you be looking to go short all the way to 122.2 ish
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Hey Scotty
I can't really make a leap like that. It would all depend on if we get any good price action to trade and then what the story looks like. Right now though the current low we put in today is a trouble area before any break lower of that. But again it would depend on how everything unfolds from here on out.
Best
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 6:13pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc
Thanks Neutro ---this is exactly how I feel as you said "I'm sitting out on all of these pins. I feel a little bit bad because we have a lot of signals today, but they don't fit my rules."
It seemed the the BRN's and S/R were not in the best of places.
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This is when you are further along then you might know. When you can see decent potentials all over and still close your charts 
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Apr 8, 2010 6:24pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giotto
Hey Mike! Any comments on developing PINs on dailies or that 4H EURJPY. Your glass ball ideas appreciated 
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Hey G
I would never want to take the eur/jpy b/c you are essentially trading right into that round number at 125. I know some people don't care and then they just watch that area but for me that is a big no no.
Best
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 6:32pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giotto
Well I know about this, but enter along 4H gave me ~100 pips free space ride with almost no risk, cos when triggered, move was almost instant. But you are right that this 125 zone is HEAVILY armored, thats why my 2nd TP is set 
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Yeah you could see how the 125 is tested and if price rejects hard off it then move your stop up. Or if it breaks through see how price pulls back to it and if it finds support you could find yourself in a nice trade.
Here is probably the most interesting one for me, but the large bearish moves will keep me sidelined.
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 6:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by giotto
You really watch for nice ones...trend, BRN, level, shape = TBLS 
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Yep it probably comes back to my mgmt style. If I was more quick to b/e I would probably go ahead and play some of these and just be very cautious at those first areas. Nothing wrong with that too
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 7:16pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
You are kidding right?
Mike is "The One" 
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lol thanks Benji. That is just the problem some people spend to much time worrying about other people instead of themselves
You are a great role model for what people should be doing Benji, you make me very proud!
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 7:26pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69
so that one is THE Mike??
I think I've seen him somewere...
can he stops bars at BRN as he does with bulletts with his mind...?
.......oooooh my god what I've done...
that was too much for a newbie, wasnt it?
I'm sorry I wont do that again...sorry Mike
Andrea
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haha trust me I don't do anything special. Just found a few things that work for me , it takes time, like anything else...find what feels right is working and build upon that
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 7:37pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike w
That's a lot more special than what you'd think my man. Give yourself some much deserved credit once in a while! Many people go through their entire lives looking for something that works for them. To feel that you've found it is amazing in its own right.
BTW, we just got breaks on all those setups (I think all of them anyway). I'm incredibly interested in the gbp/usd once a retracement and holding confirmation. Not too far to go before our FTA though.
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Thanks Mike(I remb when it was only me or you when someone said Mike hehe), the journey was a long one and it can SUCK at times, but it is also worth it.
Things breaking pretty hard, some nice areas to watch though. Defintely trades worth keeping an eye on. What is good is for example eur/jpy broke 125 cleanly. That is good, now when it pulls back we can see if fresh buyers come in at 125.
Mike
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Apr 8, 2010 7:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac
Then he is simply Twice that. 
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Apr 8, 2010 7:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
Hey now, if Batman can have one... 
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hahah make mine a beer then. Cause a cult of beer drinking. Doesn't sound too bad to me 
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Apr 8, 2010 7:56pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
they already have those - - - it's called "university"
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yeah but what are we OLD FOLKS to do once we graduate 
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Apr 9, 2010 12:23am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esbatu
Hi Mike, got a question for you on CAD/JPY.
Why do you see the 92 as the first trouble area? Is it because of the BRN? I missed that one because other than 92/RN, I don't see anything else. I put my FTA more to to second area you highlighted, around 91.50. Hope you could explain. Thanks
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Hey E
Notice how cad/jpy has been trending up pretty strongly, to reverse this is tough. What I mean is even if this ended up being the top, the whole flow is to the upside. In the most simple way you are fighting the trend and thus buyers are going to be looking to get in at previous areas of demand. So when we look under this beob we can see this previous High/low flip. This shows us a point at which buyers were willing to BUY, and then hold that area causing that little tiny high/low flip. Now you will have people screaming how can you pay attention to what seems like such a small area, but the thing comes to all the pieces together. We don't ever know for sure how the market will react, but it is very reasonable to go through this thought process for me
Uptrend - Small Reversal bar with little confluence - where were previous buyers willing to buy = First trouble area. And as we see price then did go ahead and buonce there. Now are there times when price will not bounce there? Yes of course. We can't ever know anything for sure, but if you doubled the size of that bar, that would be a very good indication that price could drop out and that first area would not have as large of an effect. I am always trying to think who is in more control and what the bar represents in terms of the type of strength. Great location, small bar = Tight mgmt.
Hope that clears it up
Mike
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Apr 9, 2010 12:33am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
I understand that, but the trend just continues in the direction it was going after the whipsaw...... ???? doesn't intervention mean a trend reverse?
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not even an intervention can prevent the markets from doing what they want after enough time 
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Apr 9, 2010 2:12am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Notice how Price is respecting or retesting the break of the PBs, like the Eur/Jpy. I would prefer it breaking up through the 125.00 and then respect that level.
But my point is that this type of Price behavior is favorable for the setup to continue. Will it continue? Who knows its hitting a strong PPZ level, 125.00. A strong break up through this level would tell me volumes.
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Jarroo(Jim^2 knows the deal_)
Check out the 4hr how well respected this area is now. So with price breaking through ideally would be a nice strong close through and if price pulls back it finds nice support by the former resistance. No need to take a big loss on these cause we know what to look for
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Apr 9, 2010 11:53am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
Jarroo(Jim^2 knows the deal_)
Check out the 4hr how well respected this area is now. So with price breaking through ideally would be a nice strong close through and if price pulls back it finds nice support by the former resistance. No need to take a big loss on these cause we know what to look for
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we got that close above 125, then that pullback and look what price did. Gotta love it
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Apr 9, 2010 12:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque
Hey Mike,
Is this what you call a touch trade whereby a buy limit is placed at the BRN upon the first break (accomplished by the green bar prior to the retrace).
I guess this is one since there is no PA to indicate that a long is due after the retrace. Is my line of thought correct?
If so, did u take this touch trade?
Thanks.
CY
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Hey Cy
Yes this would be a touch trade if you did that. I did not take this. I was simply going through what I was talking about earlier in the morning/night about how you can both protect yourself from big losses on these bars, understanding what a true break is, and then what areas we can use to protect our stops. Another way to trade these is like you said as a touch trade and you can have a SUPER small stoploss. I just am not a touch trader as I haven't fully tested touch trading out(some day when I find some time and this is how I would do it).
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 10, 2010 2:40pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
No, I don't consider the RR before I make a trade. It is usually after the fact that I look at the RR of a given trade, if I do at all.
My main focus is looking at the Quality of the setup by its Location, Supporting Confluences and the Structure of the Price Action Formation in terms of size, shape, Opens/Close,...
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I think it is more cause for concern b/c it is some of the first things we read about trading, and it is true to a certain degree. You must win on avg more then you loss(r wise to be profitable). Same goes when people starting talking about pips, and pips are meaningless without the context they are in.
I wrote this friday and since the topic has come up(again  )
QUOTE=mbqb11;57305] A: This is one of the biggest myths of trading. That is you always hear "Make sure you get 2r(that is 2 times) whatever your risk is. Or 4r or some random number. The short answer is this is NOT true. Do many traders do this? Yes they do and that is FINE, but it is not something you must do. One must know ALL the numbers to know the true story of the trader. You could gain .5r and win 85% of the time and be VERY VERY well profitable.
Many traders do NOT know their Risk:Reward going into a trade. This is completely fine as that one trade is meaningless. It is all your trades combined that make you up as a trader. Of course when you eventually run your numbers you will get an avg win %, and an avg Rmultiple(that is how much you avg win per trade). Those are the numbers that count. But, when I go into a trade I don't always have a set take profit for example so I might come out with 2 times my risk, or I might come out with .25r my risk.
This is a very common cause for concern for many, but it is very possible to be a winning trader with a 90% win rate and very small wins(way under 1R) and it is also possible to be a losing trader with a 90% winrate(if your losses are on avg bigger then your avg wins). It is also possible to be a 20% winrate trader and be profitable and vice versa.
The summary is that don't always believe what you read when you hear people say you MUST gain more then you risk. This isn't true. Also remember just b/c your initial risk might be 1% and you have a target of a certain amount, doesn't mean it has to be all or none. You can eliminate risk on a trade as you move along too. So losses don't have to be full amounts as well. Trading gives you the ability to be very flexible and find what works for YOU.
Mike[/quote]
off to enjoy the rest of the weekend hope you all do as well
Mike
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Apr 11, 2010 2:00pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by benji533
Am I the only one experiencing those feelings?
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nope listen to those feelings , this is experience when you can. The gut feeling that you learn and can only get from time.
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Apr 11, 2010 5:35pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
How pretty was that setup. Very nice. (Damn weekend. lol)
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kinda sucks ya but the good thing is hopefully very volatile week coming! How many people but traders get excited over something like that 
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Apr 11, 2010 5:49pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo
Oh my God, Mickelson . . .what a shot!
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he's unreal cant believe he missed that eagle putt though
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Apr 11, 2010 5:50pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah
lol, we must look a strange bunch to them normal folk!! lol
is it jus the volitility that makes you think it could continue through the week?
jon
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well just could be a sign of the week to come, an active sunday eve(which is normally dead) could just be that sign  hopefully
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Apr 11, 2010 6:23pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnimalHungry
Do you think that a big gap down shows selling pressure so entering on a retrace to the gap close (or thereabouts) offers a good short opportunity?
Cheers
Simon
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It could and lots of times the "gap" area(i quote it cause its really not a gap) is where the previous interest is at so new supply is likely to come in. The real question is as a trader does it fit into your methods cause at this point the gbp/chf has hit the first likely area and now its anyone's ball game so to speak.
Mike
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Apr 11, 2010 7:14pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonners67
Mike, I took the pin on the break with a stop sell. I am hovering around b/e on entry due to the gap down (16326 filled with an order set at 16360).
Considering the gap, would you move the stop more aggressively - my first PPZ was at the 13600 BRN? Just wondering if you would play it tighter due to a significant Sunday move?
How do you treat gaps like these - or do you use a 24/7 broker to take advantage?
Cheers
Jonners67
Michelson got a couple of lucky breaks over the last couple of days, but as Lee Trevino used to say....
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Hey J
You are hovering around b/e? You should be up quite a bit if you got in with a break of the pin. I personally had planned on taking this one and taking profit shy of 1.63 but with the gap I passed(prior to it my broker spread was 20 and I was not willing to place an order with that spread prior to the spreads coming down and by then well you know what has happened. When price gaps this much is is normal as we were discussing for it to refill the prior friday close area before most likely moving lower again. But being that I felt this was a tight mgmt trade I would have closed it above 1.3600 if I would have been lucky enough to catch that, especially now that it is likely to move back to the low of the pin.
Hope that helps
Mike
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Apr 12, 2010 1:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4X=0
common mike this one is easy 
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yes its cause they are never technically closed as opposed to other brokers that shut down for the weekend. Forex is a 24/7 market technically. So what you see as a gap is still movement in price just happens when your broker is "closed" But even with that said I have seen gaps on Oanda, those are my favorite.
And it's easier just to answer the question it's a fine line bud
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Apr 12, 2010 7:41pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
and an 8 pip spread,
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whoa Joel, we gotta talk about where you are trading!
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Apr 12, 2010 7:48pm
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joelcf
lol, now you mention it that does sound pretty bad. Mine hovers around 1pip. I just pulled up the last chart I had saved from the thread and it had a 6 pip spread, so I added a couple for the time.
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hahah phew 
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Apr 13, 2010 12:10am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Delfino
Any thoughts on the Pinbar on the EUR/USD Daily?
Its on the previous swing high/lows 61.8 fib, and some confluence with other bigger swings from this year.
I'm tempted but passing on it just because its formed off a failed attempt to make a lower low, and on a higher high. So thats scaring me off from shorting it.
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things a bit misaligned with the gaps. But it would be a pretty good indication for the gap to close here. But if you notice the gap occurred right at the 1.35. Not only are gaps like windows as James says they like to be closed, but they often act as a S/R as well. 1.35 now looks juicer then ever for me
Mike
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Apr 13, 2010 1:15am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oneuniverse
hello Mike and everybody!
I am enjoying the D/W setups not only on forex but also on stocks....
Apart from my 5min trades.... these setups give me added trades with great confidence and I really do enjoy them!
I have below chart of EG daily....
We have possible IPB at PPZ's and other factors.
However, the high of this IPB is same as of previous bar....is it a qualified IPB?
Or it would have been better if this IPB was at the PPZ marked in yellow?
thanks
Winston
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Hey there winston
I don't know much about these IPBs have to be honest but from what I do know I believe that is what we look for. The only better thing would be if it had higher high like you said. I'll wait for ghous or Jarroo to jump in on these.
Best
Mike
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Apr 13, 2010 3:25am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11
things a bit misaligned with the gaps. But it would be a pretty good indication for the gap to close here. But if you notice the gap occurred right at the 1.35. Not only are gaps like windows as James says they like to be closed, but they often act as a S/R as well. 1.35 now looks juicer then ever for me
Mike
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case in point just happened on eur/jpy. Will be watching the eur/usd for similar
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Apr 13, 2010 3:42am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert
You can sleep when you die?
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Apr 13, 2010 3:56am
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Resident Elmer Fudd
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here is another one I am watching, there are a few other
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