Hey Nas

The reason is that BEOB is only engulfing one prior bar, on a 4hr chart that usually isn't enough in itself. If it was a continuation bar engulfing 1 bar off say a breakout pattern that might then be enough. But the aggregation of price could simply be what makes it engulf one prior bar. I just like more information the majority of the times to play contination bars(like englufing a range of bars is WAY better).

Hope that helps
Mike

lol when Ghous gets on here he's gonna crack up

Yes things like bar size, or the range an outside bar covers is very important to me too


Mike

THanks! I might need some practice with that

Hey Lex

Generally speaking we do want pins at swing highs, but ultimately they can be played in many locations. I do like how you have marked where price is likely to go(all things holding). This is more important then anything with these bars.

Best
Mike

Hey ATC

As this is all a moot point now since price has kept falling. But generally speaking on a pin like this at a swing low(that has not created a swing high point) you are coming right into a trouble area almost every time. This is also none as traffic yes. Now the catch is that certain continuation pins can turn into big runners at the right locations, but for the most part just finding a pin near a swing low(a bearish one that is), we have to watch that first close area, which for this one would have been decently far away but now is hitting it pretty much. The reason this is the first trouble area is the last few times it hit here we found buying, so we can't really ignore it.

Let me know if that makes sense
Mike

possibly the first time anyone has posted this pair

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GREAT POST!

who's ignoring this, this is exactly what we promote here

Trigger(really just using your posts as a springboard to rant )

I mean this in a very nice way I think you have missed a lot of key points brought up by seniors and long time members. I know this is a super long thread so I will re-explain for clarity from at least what I mean. Remember this is a thread where we see tons of NEW traders who have no concept of anything but shotgun trading on 5 min timeframes. When you achieve a certain level with this material and understanding of the market in general you know how to survive and learn and do things right until you can possibly make it.

The fact James says to start on the higher timeframes, is NOT to never trade the lower timeframes. Or that most people might not end up down there. The idea is that first of you can trade daily/weekly and make a very nice ROI per year. You can watch 100s of charts on daily weekly INCREASING the opportunities(and hell some people just don't want to check charts more then once a day). If you watch 20 forex pairs on daily/weekly you are severely limiting yourself and this is the same thing you are saying. More pairs = more opportunities. It is easy to scan 100 charts for a daily/weekly close, impossible(IMO) to scan 100 charts on the hourly. So there are many ways to increase exposure to trading opportunities.

But this isn't even the point most of us bring up when we say start(keyword) on the higher timeframes. The reason to start on the higher timeframes is to develop the skill and mindset to keep you in the game, learning to trade profitable and then to help translate those skills to wherever is comfortable(90% of my trades are 4hr and under so I understand). What happens is most people read something about forex, go to the 15 min chart and trade till they are blown out. They don't realize how crucial patience, discipline is b/c they are constantly "in a trade". It's more of the feeling then it is the actual mindset of a trader, which IMO is what the higher timeframe to start is about. It is to clear out so many(and I see this everyday as I deal with many NEW traders0 bad habits.

So I think you are missing what we are trying to get here. Your point isn't incorrect, its the context of the rest of it. My last question I pose to the general people who are reading this thread. If you are trading the 5min the 15min right now and have been banging your head on the table and refuse to get off, that is FINE. If that is what you want to do. No one is ever telling you you CAN'T. The question really is if what you are doing isn't working then maybe try to find a new way to get it to work that is logical from people who have been in it.

Again. DO people trade j16 price action on every timeframe. YES! It's a process to learn to become profitable. Some of the rules and general guidelines are to help get people to a point where they are close. No one can make you profitable over night, and at the end it is up to YOU the person to make it happen. The tips/advice we all give is from experience.

The journey you take with this material or anyone elses' is ENTIRELY yours. There are a 100 ways to make it work and even more to make it fail.

I truly hope this clears it up and I can reference this post in a few months time when it is brought up again

Best and I appreciate all the hard work people put in, this is not something easy
Mike

Hey Trig

Again it all comes down to our beliefs. Some of what you say I will just respectfully disagree and that is OK! As for 5mins is death I know a few very successful 5 min PA traders. So it just shows you it can work anywhere and it can fail anywhere. Also we do promote rifle trading and all the likes but as you can imagine a thread with 7 million views 60,000 pages and the countless personalities there is only so much you can control day in and day out without having to refrence back tons of old posts and keeping the noise down. But we have a great place here where we can all voice our views and opinions in a non threating and understanding way, and that is bar none to me.

Thanks
Mike

yeah same here lol

Like Jim says


And I think anyone who doesn't think this is in for a world of hurt

Hey DD

Yep you nailed it with your first trouble area , analysis is fine. Don't worry about the news :P. I do see you entered before the break and with a tight stop. No problems if that is what you have tested, but remember a bar is not valid till the high breaks and of course invalid till the low breaks

Mike

I think the more the merrier J. As long as you can keep up with it. I personally watch

euro, usd/chf, nzd/jpy, usd/nok, cad/jpy, gbp/aud, chf/jpy, gbp/cad, eur/aud, eur/cad, aud/usd, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy , usd/chf, gbp/usd, nzd/usd, eur/gbp, nzd/usd, usd/cad, eur/jpy, gbpchf, nzd/cad, eur/nok, aud/usd, aud/nzd, aud/sgd, cad/chf, usd/sek, gold and silver. I will check out some other random ones here and there for the daily and weekly since I am more likely to play them on the larger timeframes as opposed to intraday

Some spreads are too big for me intraday but from a daily/weekly standpoint I am ok with. Obviously some pairs are just ridiculous to trade but you can usually see this clearly from the chart or if the spread is ridiculous. But most times the spread (if you have decent broker) is relative to how the pair moves and shouldn't scare you off .

Hope that helps
Mike

Hey D


That setup was strong enough for some pips, and When I saw it I knew where it was going, but that still won't let me break one of my golden rules which is trading into LARGE ppzs(I only trade away from them). The large PPZ I am speaking off is 1.65. But certainly a real nice one coming on a friday.

Nicely done sir!
Mike

wow this guy goes in hinding and comes out with an essay! I skipped it first so I could actually read it right :P

No really all is true, everything SP, you, Joel, it all makes sense.

I read Mark Douglas' book and was like really? I was like this stuff is so obvious. Then after I realized the state of mind so many people come to trading with that the book has merit. It's like the starter kit for new traders. Even some people who have been around for awhile but just have no self control. It's HUGE for them. Bigger then people realize but for some it's the obvious parts of trading. So my trading in the zone is in mint condition and just sits there(anyone is welcome to have it, I have given away most my trading books lol).

But I agree with Aaron it's all about pieces and fitting them. Most people unfortunately don't last to get even a few pieces into sight where they can see what the picture of the puzzle is going to be. Most just look at the back cover of the puzzle box but don't start the puzzle.

Mike

yeah it is way to late into a friday I am done! done with this month! What a boring one for me

But in general I don't trade this late on a friday unless the markets are going crazy or I am in a trade already. Aaron knows weekend Mike begins to creep in on fridays


Mike

awesome sir! Now I can drink 1 extra beer in honor of you tonight

looks very small bar, very weak selling on a friday that could just be some tidying up before the weekend. I think price is getting attracted to that 95 level or close to it

Best
Mike

Hey Nas

While it maybe be bearish in nature I want a much higher high on my beob. Again someone with tight mgmt it may very well give them the opportunity to eliminate risk but my mgmt style is a bit more lenient so I would need a better bar to play a continuation.

Mike

I would say go for it if it isn't too much to keep up with especially if you are trading daily/weekly only. This way more opportunities and don't have to sacrifice being picky.

Best
Mike

Hey Pipage

It didn't close within the prior bar on mine by 1 pip. So not technically a pin, I am sure some feeds will show or it is a proxy pin(see bar with an arrow). I know that sounds nit picky but the reason that matters to me is based off it being firday and maybe it just being some profit taking. If it breaks hard we could see into 67.50 though(blue box).

Have a great weekend
Mike

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Hey Artie

Glad to see some of you lurkers come out and post

Yes you are correct 67 would be the much more major trouble area but the other round numbers 50s also are going to be trouble areas and if you can find some bar highs or lows there then you can confirm that to be the more "first trouble area". So you are not wrong at all. What I like to do is say how confident am I in my entry? Meaning how strong of an entry. Where is price likely to go?(meaning what are the different trouble areas). Then I make decisions on what to do at these areas and they can vary each time.

Hope this helps a bit
Mike

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Yes these can be tricky. Fridays are notorious profit taking days esp in such a strong trend. If the left eye area can't hold I would expect it to fall. But we really need to monitor these first trouble areas(bluebox) extra close in a strong trending market. I really am never comfortable with small bars trying to turn such a strong trend.

Hope everyone had a nice weekend
Mike

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Hey Ira

Basically the summary is just a very tiny bar not at a great swing high. I wrote a quick blurb here the other day.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=62462

Hope that helps
Mike

Hey Pinbar

I can not believe you are the first person to take that name after all these years! Good grab!

As for you Weekly usd/jpy, that is not a pinbar. That is what I believe people call an IPB, or an invertedpinbar, or insidepinbar, note ven positive. Not a J16 bar, someone named ghous has coin this term so I can't really comment too much on it as I don't know them too well. But my one thing to say would be trying to analyze a bar and then go to each different timeframe is(in my view) an overcomplication and usually will lead to analysis paralysis. I think the easiest thing is to find your good bars and then just trade them on what you see in that timeframe. The daily u/j you pointed to was a very very tiny pinbar at a so-so swing high. It never broke so no trade, but again maybe a C bar at best.

Welcome again
Mike

Hey Nuclear

I wouldn't say any of these have failed though, nzd/jpy never broke(so not a valid bar unless it broke) same with usd/jpy, and aud/chf gaped out to the first trouble area on my broker. If you don't wait for breaks then this is sort of the catch. If they do break you are in with a better position size, if they don't your in prior to a confirmed bar(not that there is anything wrong with that). Weak profit taking caused these small bars it seems.

Best
Mike

that's how we do it

yeah this ones interesting just so much garbage it is trading into. Very choppy look from this timeframe. 1.2550 looks to be coming though

Mike

Hey J

Do you mean today's current bar on your chart?

If so that is not an inside bar. To be an inside bar the entire range(high to low) must be contained within the previous bar. Two bars prior was an inside bar.

Mike

Hey J

You may be thinking of an IPB(which is ghous thing), and inside4b(I4B) is simply an inside bar that has a smaller range then the previous 3 bars. It still must be an inside bar.

Here ya go

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=59040

Best
Mike

an I4B must be an inside bar. But not all inside bars are I4bs.

You can have an I74B, which would be an inside bar that has a smaller range the the previous 73 bars.

So an I4B is an Inside bar the MUST have a smaller range then the previous 3 bars and MUST be an inside bar(that is inside the previous bar only not inside the previous 3 bars).

Let me know if that clears it up
Mike

Hey J

Yep this would make much more sense. This would be an I4B, maybe an I6 or 7B. Price basically formed this I4B right under 125 when it broke both it bursted higher(inside bars show a consolidation and the I4B shows a decreasing of range )

Mike

Wiz plays these markets quite a bit(Hi bud good to see you stop by hope you are keeping away from the lighting these days )

I am a size guy. You will notice a lot of the bars I take are larger then normal. Now one thing that is important to realize as you go through this is their are a ton of ways to make this work. Big bars, small bars, different locations...so don't be afraid to experiment around as you demo. For me I wouldn't take this simply b/c of the size of the bar. I would rather see us push through these last highs(it looks as if were knocking on the door and with an uptrend I would suspect any move down would be more temporary before a burst to at least test what exists above 87 here. Then if we got a big bearish bar coming off that divergence + new high would be my type of play. Again everyone has certain plays they tend to really like and are comfortable with. Wiz will tell you how important that is.

A break lower could stall at 85.50 and then if not clear way towards 85. I would want to trade away from 85 as we see weekly has a buob so we could be going higher.

Again just my analysis as always and as you can see many bars can be traded a few ways to make it work.

Mike

this thing dropped like a rock! NICE WIZ!

simple answer don't join something that has no benefit for you and also don't be so paranoid The markets much to large for your orders to really matter the big boys don't need a site like that to see your orders they are trading insane amounts of money straight through banks and seeing a lot more fed directly to them on sizes of orders that actually matter.

it was niiiiiiice

This was one of my big turning points also

Hey Pin

I often see this question and I think it is a slippery slope. Part of training your eye to see these areas is going to serve you far greater into the future with understanding and getting that feel for price. As they are so crucial to the foundation of PA trading I would just keep practicing and getting good at spotting the major and minor ones and let it take its course. I cringe when I see those S/R indicators(no offense to anyone who uses em!)

Of course just my opinion

Mike

here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.

http://drop.io/q6ks7v7

Best
Mike

Hey Han

I don't have a problem with your breakout pattern but if I play a breakout pattern from the weekly the lowest I will go is the daily about 99% of the time. You certainly can go lower if it is comfortable for you.

Best
Mike

edit I went back over this trade more and the interesting this was price consolidated again to form a new breakout pattern at the edge of the old one on the 1hr. Then it broke out and pulledback to give a nice 1hr pin. Missed this one silly old me.

Hey RelyT

I think it is a good idea and it was me who said it, or at least I have said it. I think way to many people start off on the wrong foot, are trading every 10 mins and simply don't get a chance to actually do anything right. They just click click click. We are all guilty of that at some point. If we really focus down and try to do a few things really well the light seems to get brighter and you can add components as you go. Of course everyone's journey will vary but this IMO is a good jumping off point especially if you are overwhelemed.

Best of luck
Mike

Hey E

Jim uses MACD standard settings, many others use RSI. I would pick whichever you are comfortable with the RSI from what I understand is a bit more sensitive.

Best
Mike

It is in my opinion that we should keep timeframes separate in that regard. But of course there are always people who will do things different and that is fine. I just think if divergence is showing up on the weekly that is divergence in refrence to that timeframe. That is how I like to keep things simple.

Best
Mike

Don't be afraid to apply what you already know and add J16 stuff into it in your own way. That is a very good way to start! James would say that is a good way to go with it.

Best
Mike

Most people I know use the standard RSI setting but others use a custom one with a lower number.

As for entering our bar setups, it comes down to what is comfortable for you. I always wait for a break. A setup is not confirmed until it breaks. So for me I like this conservative approach. Many others are willing to trade this confirmation and get in on a retracement to have a bigger position size. So as you can see advantages and drawbacks to both. I would test and demo to see what you find most comfortable and work from there.

Mike

we missed ya bud! Enough of living the dream over there! back to work :P

That's what we call option protection at its finest :P

IMO commodities and futures respect the 50 fib more so then fx markets

"they" say a lot of crazy things :P

yes all those do play a role to some extent. If it's on the chart I do not ignore it. I don't use trendlines much except for when I am looking at breakout patterns or real obvious ones for a little extra confluence.

Best
Mike

26h pin! why not the 4hr buob as above :P

Just messing with you yaniv my man

Mike

I got like 30 emails about the usd/jpy of people just killing it on it. Talk about a runner . Good job to those that followed their plans

Hey Blue

Yes that is what people were doing. DBHLC with divg off the 95 arae. Boy did that thing drop like a rock wish I took it

Mike

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nope not on the way down at least LOL my methods flourish best when we swing, unless I catch a breakout play. Just nothing quite lining up for me these last few weeks

It can be tough watching all the action. I had a real slow last month after a flying start the first 3 months. But that's just how it goes. Your method does what it does. I forgot who said it , but it was something when I am out of the market it's other peoples turn to get theirs

I finally had an order pick up with some slippage though, but maybe its my turn :P maybe not

Keep at it Dan you are doing great
Mike

haha wow Jim wait till you see my live video you can hear my reaction. It all happened while I was taping, going to render it now.

I finally got mine gotta love this volatility

Mike

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damn

Actually technicals were still in place on plenty of things. If you just start shorting or long when you see large bars then I agree. My trade was very sound and I have made similar plays year after year. Just like if you were short usd/jpy from the DBHLC, did you know this would happen. HELL no! But if it does and your in then you ride the train.

yes believe me I agree. If you just start clicking buy and sell when this stuff happens your in for a world of hurt one day.

Ryan I was well in my position before mine took off here. My trade plan was firmly in place. Did I know this would explode that quick? course not lol. But it did and you react accordingly.

Ahh was just going to post only in PF but here is my trade. Did I expect this that QUICK , no way. But this was a trade that had a firm trade plan. No one knows whats going to happen at anytime. That isn't the argument. I think you should understand I am talking about understanding your trade plan.

At least that's what I did. Oh My actual order was a BV(bounds violation) and I got in 10 pips later so I should say that

(I am taking this down in a few hours though)

Mike

He farted

hahaha,

yes of course. And I agree. If you just jump in b/c you see big bars. You are eventually dead in the water and you have zero chance. IMO you had a trade plan going into today like ANY other day or your are clueless. It's just gambling any other way.

back to my 5 min charts :P

anytime the xxx/jpy are falling to their deaths rac is in, no doubt about it