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  #61510  
Old Apr 22, 2010 1:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Hello ertorque,
u may have made a incorrect conversion, time-wise. (in the 3rd link below, it says Australia "most locations.... No DST in 2010")
im not too familiar with it too, since we dont have DST here in my country.

hope these will help enlighten you
http://www.timeanddate.com/
http://www.timeanddate.com/time/aboutdst.html
http://www.timeanddate.com/time/dst2010.html
Most locations in Australia do have DST - unless you live in one of the backwards states, like Bundy

It ended two weeks ago or thereabouts.

I just add the different cities to my phone's 'world clock' dealie, and it updates itself for DST automagically. I believe Bemac linked me to a web-based clock that set out the sessions a while back, cant remember if it was in this thread or another.

Alternatively, get a watch that can handle world times...
http://www.prestigetime.com/item/Pat...5130p-001.html


Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Thanks Mike. Still a little bit confused.
Okay, if NY starts at 8am and ends at 5pm NY time, it means Sydney being the next in line (and seamless) would start at 5pm NY local time. 5pm NY would be 7am Sydney local (since it is 14hrs from NY).
Starting a local market at 7am seems strange (usually it is 8am local) to me or am I mistaken here?
You arent mistaken, but it doesnt really matter much anyways - volume is light in the Sydney session (I think it is only around 5% of global volume), though that picks up when Tokyo overlaps with it (7pm-4am EST).

Also, it isnt like a futures or stock exchange which just opens or closes at set times. You are talking about banks here, so it is more structured around the hours that the dealers work. Which are going to vary a bit in each inst.

There are also a number of other, smaller markets with decent turnover too that people forget about (or dont know about) - HK, Auckland, Frankfurt, Chicago, Singapore, Geneva, Paris, Moscow, LA.

I guess the point is - there is a fluid market, and session start/end times dont matter all that much. Read some of Ryan's post for his (correct) point of view on when volume moves.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 22, 2010 2:39am
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  #61512  
Old Apr 22, 2010 3:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
EDIT:
joel, i saw your edit.
does it have to take a Patek Philippe to handle this issue hahahah
with that amount ($47K), here u can buy a fairly decent house, a lot &/or a house & lot
Wow. A house?! I need to move to somewhere that housing is priced in minilots, not full lots That isnt even a deposit on a house in Sydney.

And no, you could go the classic route:



...but dont blame me when you get openly mocked in public

(ps: that's an ugly Patek)
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  #61514  
Old Apr 22, 2010 3:21am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
this is another perk of living here.
ah. you must be a couple hours ahead of us - here, London opens around 6pm, then NY around midnight/1am, depending on DST and crossovers.

The way you guys have it is ideal - sleep in late, hit the gym, lunch, trade London and the LSE, NY and NYSE/CME/NASDAQ, then done working before midnight.

I'm pretty jealous.
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  #61593  
Old Apr 22, 2010 7:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastionay View Post
I read recently that a trader uses a keltner channel and bollinger band to predict whipsaws with fairly high accuracy.
Keltner channels and BBs are essentially the same thing, with BBs being a more refined implementation. It's all just a play on mean reversion. Cant see any reason for using both.

And saying that a bar should reverse just because it is above its 20 period 'projected range' is a pretty decent way to go broke, imo. Saying it should keep going if it 'breaks' out of a channel projected by this tiny sample size (and based on the assumption that something should keep behaving the same was as it has in the last few weeks) is almost as bad.

Stick to PA and PPZ, imo.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 22, 2010 8:11pm
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  #61598  
Old Apr 22, 2010 10:01pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I think I'm starting to get a hang of the J16 concept, but could someone critique my chart analisys?

I usually check my charts once a day for setups, normaly around 9pm central. I only look at the daily and weekly charts as advised. I view about 22 pairs.

I first try to look for PA that really jumps out at me. If nothings there I move on to the next pair. If something catches my eye then I check PPZ, BRN, market trend, 150 & 365 EMAs, new highs or lows, and fibs. ?
One thing I have found that helps is to mark out PPZs beforehand - that way, you can quickly scan the chart to see if price is in any locations you are interested in - and if not, hit the next one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
Am I on the right track here? I ask this question because I can sometimes scroll through my pairs in a matter of minutes if nothing jumps out at me. I've only placed 2 trades on my demo so far this month (both SHOULD have be winners and those mistakes will be corrected in the future). Is there something else besides reading that I can be or should be doing?
Sounds like you are doing fine. Often, there just are no setups.

Another thing you might like to try is to find a broker with a different time shift to the one you are using. WHen price is in an area where you think that it might give off a trade (big PPZs, round numbers, etc), you can check a couple of other timezones to see if there is any PA on it.

If you want to expand into other markets, there are a couple of brokers that offer a wide range of instruments for you to trade through MT4. I dont really have any experience with any of them (from what I can tell, they are largely synthetic spot instruments), but there are a few people here who definitely follow things like spot gold/silver/oil/pork bellies.

If you just want something else to help develop your skills, look at the charts posted in the thread and critique them. Do you think their PPZs are valid? Are their trendlines tradeable, or are they just curve fitting? Is the PA good enough for you to trade. Even if you dont post it, it is a great exercise to pick up things you might me missing, misusing or otherwise.

(and you shouldnt be worried about posting feedback on other people's charts - aside from me - everyone here is friendly and wont take offence if you disagree... most people welcome an opposing viewpoint!)
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  #61599  
Old Apr 22, 2010 10:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lexx View Post
For these three months my acc has grown 20-25percent with risk about 2percent.
Nice work. That's a pretty sweet outcome.

Also, that avatar is the best thing I have ever seen. Welcome to Team Bear!

Quote:
Originally Posted by lexx View Post
Interesting, but almost every trade was profitable (daily charts) with pin bars on confluence zones(brn,fibs,emas,ppz). I used to take full profit on nearest ppz and win rate is high.

However this zone can be situated near actual entry place, with full PB stoploss such trades have relative small RR.

After all these trades i have a question:
In your opinion, what's the best way to take profit? may be consider ppz And RR(at least >1 ) or more tight stops? I know it's all subjective, would like to hear your ideas/approaches.
I think we covered this one a couple of days ago. Basically, it boils down to your personal style. Some people like a move to breakeven, some people like a quick profit, some do a mix.

Usually, I'll skip these ones. I got better things to do than shoot for a 10pip profit with a hundred pip stop, even if it is +EV. If I do end up taking them and it is only a small return I usually just move my stop to b/e (or be+1...cant help myself ) as soon as possible and get it into a free trade. But, as you said, its a personal preference thing.

One thing I dont like is reducing my stop to an arbitary amount just to hit a target r:R. For me, your stop should always be based on the chart.
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  #62060  
Old Apr 27, 2010 6:06pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemosaic View Post
I was wondering if someone could help me understand which time offset to use. I am based in London and have seen brokers offering Forex charts with GMT, GMT+1, GMT-5 etc.....
London makes up the majority, then NY. The others are pretty small (< ~10%) in terms of volume. So it makes sense to try and do most of your trading in these sessions.

But your *actual* offset doesnt matter all that much. Your PPZs will be roughly the same on every chart, its only the bar shapes that change. And most of the time, they wont even change that much - you might see a BEOB instead of a pin, or vice versa.

There is an EA floating around the thread that lets you timeshift charts. I could never make it work properly, but at least a couple of people use it regularly.

In the end, I think the best solution is to just get a couple of demo accounts with different brokers and use the charts from each. That way you know you arent missing anything I know Mike looks at 4 or 5 different brokers, and SupremeChaos might do even more than that (if you search for his old posts, you can probably even find a list of brokers and their offsets)

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
But if it was 10-5 suited? You would still fold it, right? (jk). lol
T5s is only 33% vs a standard opening range, about 4% better than T5o. But both are terrible reverse implied odds hands... you win a small pot, or lose a big one
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  #62068  
Old Apr 27, 2010 6:49pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
Trading fits my personality 10x better than poker.
their loss, our gain

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty2Cues View Post
whats going on with the yen today?
risk aversion flows. The world got a whole lot scarier for a whole bunch of people overnight.
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  #62073  
Old Apr 27, 2010 7:33pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
waaaaaait a minute.... I'm not part of your liquidity pool now am I?
Definitely not. Now buy some Euros.
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  #62089  
Old Apr 27, 2010 11:04pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Don't say I never do anything for ya.

Here...
As usual, Bundy's charts are clean, textbook examples of an a++ trade.

Click image for larger version

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ID:	465777

Dirt simple, folks.

----------
I know at least one person here who made money on this yesterday. Because they pointed it out to me

Click image for larger version

Name:	cat.PNG
Views:	33
Size:	18.0 KB
ID:	465783

(it wasnt me - I just didnt lose, which is kinda the same)
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  #62224  
Old Apr 28, 2010 9:28pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju View Post
People talk of 50% per year with J16... you can kill that number with stocks just following the general market bias!!
The only way you are even possibly getting an ROI in that range is by using a ridiculous amount of leverage and dicey position sizing that veers right into the heart of RoR territory. In which case, ROI is meaningless - it is ROE which actually tracks the returns from your strategy, and they are going to be alot less impressive.

In fact, I would be suprised if you could name a single person who does that consistently with any kind of real account (ie, not 'I risked my $100 account on a penny stock and doubled it this one time').

To be completely honest, 'follow the market bias' sounds alot like some Covell 'follow the trend lol' cliche. Some other killer rules that are guaranteed to make you tons of money are 'cut your losses, let your winners run' and 'buy low, sell high'

Anyone claiming that equity trading is somehow easier that the PA techniques taught here is deluded, at best. A forex trade might take me five minutes to find, analyse, record and enter. An equity position takes more like five hours. Often (usually )longer.

*edit* sector rotation, in itself, is nothing new or 'secret'. And it most certainly wont get you 50%+ pa returns. Hell, even a long/short rotation wont come close to that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju View Post
I think it's important to remember that trading traditional daily J16 grows ALREADY-LARGE accounts - most people come on here with their $250 mini FX account and want to be rich. Unless you are rich enough to have $1000's to trade with and you are young enough to have at least 10 good trading years in you then this PA trading probably aint for you.
Recently, I've been helping a friend learn how to trade. She doesnt want to risk much on the education account (ie, demo with a couple hundred bucks), so as well as focusing on the fundamentals, I have been doing alot of work taking the approach Jim, Mike and the guys have taught us and optimising it for small accounts - a small stakes trading method, if you will (or 'beer money system', depending on the night).

For reference, her $500 account is now around $4k so far in 3 months, with a RoR well under 1%.

People who say you cant grow an account using the stuff in this thread either havent tried, dont have the necessary tools, or just gave up when they didnt get an Aston Martin after a week of 'trading' the M5 charts .

Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju View Post
Using daily PA is a very painful way to trade. If you see a half decent pin which has at least the same distance to go until its FTA as it has to the stoploss (in other words 1:1 risk reward) then that's probably all you will get from this method. Take it, hope and move to BE asap. Everyone around here seems to hate the idea of risk reward but the maths cannot be denied: you make $1 x 3 good Pins then lose $3 on one bad one.... well, do the math.
People who talk in risk:reward without expected value dont understand 'the math' and are just repeating something they read in a book (or, more likely, someone else who read a book). It's disingenuous at best, because it ignores the other half of the equation.

I dont think anyone is really denying risk:reward - it just isnt a great tool for anything but a coinflip system (or a bookselling system...)

The reason it is 'painful' is that you are blindly following rules (you always need 1:1 r:R!@#) without thinking about why. And so you miss a ton of profitable trades. If you had a setup that worked 75% of the time, you would be a chump to only take it if it offered you 1:1.

Money management is a hugely misunderstood area of trading. The amount of misinterpretation and platitude floating around is amazing. I could hazard a couple of guesses at why.. but given I havent got around to writing my 'how to do the tradings money!' book, I cant throw stones

Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju View Post
I know Jim, Mike and all mean well and there is obviously some good in this PA daily chart trading for them, but a warning to newbies and anyone else you will not get an easy ride with PA trading and your account will grow painfully.
There are (literally) dozens of people here who will tell you otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by triggerju View Post
If you risk 3% on a low frame, you could make 20% per month most months using J16 PPZs and decent pins with a GOOD RISK REWARD RATIO. But it is a gamble, be quick on those fingers
How is risking 3% (or any other arbitary number you pick) on a lower timeframe any different to 3% on a longer timeframe, apart from 'noise' being alot more significant in the makeup of the PA, therefore increasing your variance (and consequently, risk)?

The only difference is that you get a larger number of potential signals.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 28, 2010 9:59pm
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  #62226  
Old Apr 28, 2010 10:07pm
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I am so behind the times. Today is the first time I have ever seen Charlie Bit Me. 183m people beat me to it, somehow. Learn something new and useful every day here

Quote:
Originally Posted by datogio View Post
Easy and quick money is the biggest illusion in this world in any industry.
Getting rich quickly isnt as hard as people think - you just need to sign up for my ski mask, shotgun and getaway car system! Only 4 payments of $99.95*!

*may carry residual cost of 25 to life.
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  #62231  
Old Apr 28, 2010 11:15pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
I noticed that some of you guys seem to only try to catch 1 bar whenever going into a trade, or was I wrong? So nobody really rides the profit or there's just too little to risk to reap the rewards (chicken out)?
Not really.

Everyone uses a different approach, but it generally falls under either

a) take profit at first trouble area. Low return, high probability, low variance.

b) move stop to b/e at first trouble area. Lower probability of a non-zero return, but higher potential rewards and higher variance

... or a combination thereof. Stuff like partial TP, dual stop trails, net zero risk positioning, etc.

The reason you see these approaches dominate something like 'take setup, leave stop where it is until we get exit signal or stopped out' is because there are areas where there is a high probability of a reversal, or at least a stalling in momentum... and once we recognise those, it is prudent to take some kind of action to reduce our risk. Leaving your stop at full risk and doing nothing about it in the 'hope' that the 'breathing room' will give you a runner when there are signs saying otherwise is a pretty poor decision, imho. It's just a variation on the old amatuer trap of 'i dont want to close my position for a loss, it has to come back!'.

That's probably the most important thing I have learned from this thread (aside from 'Dont Mess With Texas') - dont just sit there and take a full bar loss like a chump when you know that there is a good chance that if price hits a certain area, the momentum can easily to reverse and stop you out.

Jim's videos on 'where is price going? where did it do?' really were an eye opener. Such a simple, obvious idea... that I didnt even think about, along with most other people

It's also why something like r:R is largely useless - it might have *some* relevance when you are just taking an entry and covering your eyes and ears (ie, a binary approach - you hit your TP, or you get stopped out), but its an unsophisticated metric when you are dealing with a range of possible outcomes.

wrt ATR stops and trails, again - a variety of approaches, but I know these are both heavily used when we let a trade run. I tailor my stop approach to each particular trade (based on the instrument/pair and the outcome I am targeting), but ATR (well, something that works on a similar principal) is definitely part of the arsenal.

I guess, like everything, you can make trade management as complicated or as simple as you want. Some people are happy with a '1st trouble area, stop to b/e' approach. Some people want a dozen approaches. Neither is right or wrong - the only real mistake is having no plan at all. Or listening to Lady Gaga.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 28, 2010 11:28pm
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  #62237  
Old Apr 28, 2010 11:30pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
could I be your friend? I would love to have that kind of success. Been demoing this method for 2 months now and at just below break even.
lol, we had been practicing PA for another 3 or 4 months before that. Everything you need is in here*

*either in writing, or in Mike/Jim/Jim/etcs heads. Fortunately, they share that
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 28, 2010 11:47pm
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  #62239  
Old Apr 28, 2010 11:46pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Good timing with my free trade posts because this post fits it perfectly.
lol, if I ever do write a book, I'm gonna owe you royalties on the section entitled 'Why the free trade (and Jaroo) is smarter than you'.

*edit* 500 posts!
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  #62247  
Old Apr 29, 2010 12:57am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve0001 View Post
It is not hard to imagine how either one of these two traders could turn a relatively insignificant sum into $1 million in relatively short order.
Attrition bias is fun. The result from these competitions are largely meaningless, because the conditions are completely artificial. And so the constraints that ordinarily apply in the real world are removed.

There is no penalty for losing, and no reward for not winning (in real terms - you are talking $500 capital to win $25k) in a short timeframe. Which means there is a positive EV for taking on as much risk as possible. Someone here knows a little about that

So you only hear about those who gamble and win, not the ones who lose. For every trade he took long, someone likely took short. And because the pair broke north, not south, you only read about one of them.

(obv a simplified example, otherwise we are talking 2^500 entrants!)

On any performance curve, you are going to have outliers. It would be strange not to. So there is no suprise that a guy made xxx% in a month. Do it a couple of times and I might pay attention.

Not trying to take anything away from these guys, maybe they really are great traders. Or maybe just had a hot run, as you would expect in a large field. Variance is fun - when it works for you. Either way, well done

*edit* their forums over there are a trainwreck of epic proportions. Take all the 'how did i be millinaire?!' posts from FF and compress them into a much smaller space. FXCM must be making a killing on the contestants. It's actually really smart marketing.

Also, maybe not this one cause it seems to be tightly controlled, but so many of these contests are won by someone gaming the system, rather than *actually* trading. Its usually someone exploiting data delays or artificial inefficiencies (usually bid/ask or transaction cost) that dont exist in the real world. IIRC, someone did something similar in a big contest here - there was a couple hundred millisecond delay in the data and bam. Did quite nicely out of it too.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 29, 2010 1:27am
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