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  #63034  
Old May 6, 2010 5:53pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by optimuss View Post
whats the best way to approach these big moves in the coming days ??
Easy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanmcd View Post
If you made money in the past 2 hours dont bullshit yourself and say it's skill
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Captain View Post
Anyone that made cash the last few hours - technicals had nothing to do with any of it. You just happened to be on the right side when the bomb went off.
Regardless though, hilarious. Someone is getting their ass kicked.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/nlstrades...N&selected=ACN

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Last edited by joelcf, May 6, 2010 6:20pm
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  #63047  
Old May 6, 2010 8:22pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
unbelievable, only one stock coursed those reactions among currency,commodities and equity? what a fragile market .
That one is more of an effect than a cause. Just an amusing one.

But yeah, fragile is an understatement at the moment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post

hahaha Yeah you definitely needed a wider stop!
Do you ever sleep?!
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  #63060  
Old May 7, 2010 1:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
With the gains we got from the markets this past week (commodities and currency combined, nearly 9% for me on 2% risks. Only 1.8% on live account ), I will proudly sit out for a while.

Good work guys.
Good work guys? Screw that. Good work Dan! That's awesome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyCapital View Post
I am at a point in my trading life that others want me to manage their funds. Which is the best way to charge for this service #1 and then # 2 Is it okay to do so in the US and then #3 Do you need to take a test or become certified? I am not greedy I just want to give potential clients a bit of a better deal than most Money Managers.
hrm...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyCapital View Post
I am new to trading and have a cousin that trades with Williams Capital here in NY. I have been studying this thread for weeks and plan on joining the PF and becoming a senior member.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyCapital View Post
I am new as well so the first thing I did was go thru Baby Pips. I then started to read about candlestick reading a lil more. Then I started to study from a person named Tymen1 who has a good trend thread. After that I started to read all of the back post from James16 thread. I started to create my style and now I am practicing via a demo account with GFT.
Yeah, this is gonna work out well
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  #63091  
Old May 7, 2010 3:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Not on FXDD feed.

Can someone post a chart?
To be honest, your chart answers the question of 'should I go long euro here?!' quite well
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  #63107  
Old May 7, 2010 5:44am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Joel, I was not asking a question of "Should I go long here", I don't need to ask people if I should make a trade.
I know. It was more directed to anyone (ie, the guy posting the original chart) that thought a long was a good idea, since your chart explained very well why it wasnt.
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  #63257  
Old May 10, 2010 4:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxprocessor View Post
Nice confluence area on USDCAD. TL broke upwards and we now have a retrace to 62 fib and breakout area.

I will only trade it if PA shows in this area though as I don't like the current price action rejection
I like that one as a bigass with-trend pinbar on a breakout failure w MA/PPZ rejection and packing more momentum than a fat chick at half price-buffet night


(...depending on whether it completes or just heads north after a retrial - which, I guess, is something that Canadians have been known to do)
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  #63267  
Old May 10, 2010 9:37am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Another fail IPB. In my opinion has all the ingredients of a good IPB but did not end up in the desired direction.
Could we attribute this to ' its a probability thing and even good setups can fail' reasoning?
I don't know how that bar is a short. I'm always long if price breaks above it.

Maybe G(v)oss will see it differently, but to me, that's a bullish sign
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  #63296  
Old May 10, 2010 5:59pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ertorque View Post
Hey Joel,
IPB is played by entering at the close of the bar unlike 'regular' PBs.
I think you need to have a look at what that bar is telling you before mashing the short button.

(ignore the crap on my chart)
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You have a strong uptrend, which means you are going to want a pretty damn good bar to setup a fade here.

And then, at the top, we have a small pause bar (open and close are almost the same, so there was no net movement) and it closed near the TOP of its range. Which means, while it had bearish strength at some point, it closed with bullish pressure.

Nothing about that really screams 'short' to me.

Let's look closer.
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Looks like a double top to me, that closed bullishly...
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...with a retest to the middle dip...
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... and a breakout.
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As I said, I am long all day here if I'm scalping. 'Rules' or not. If you are trading that on the basis that it 'should' retrace to the bottom of the IPB, you are effectively trying to play the bounce from the double top to the bottom of the channel. Not really what I would do in a strong uptrend, especially with no bearish PA.
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Last edited by joelcf, May 10, 2010 6:57pm
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  #63318  
Old May 10, 2010 11:28pm
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'ipb' is the new 'touch trading'
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  #63330  
Old May 11, 2010 12:32am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
if people are trying to trade IPBs before learning to trade PB's, i agree, it's not healthy.

trading PB's is like 'crawling', while IPB trading is like 'walking/running'..
so i hope people try to learn how to crawl first before trying to walk/run..
Couldnt have put it better myself.

An experienced trader experiments with a new methodology extending the principals that Jim taught.... and then every new trader just runs with it, without really knowing what they are doing, thinking the 'new secret' is the key to instant success. Who needs 20 years of Jim's experience when we can just short every bar in sight and then draw in some posthoc trendlines to justify it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
I'm officially a lurker here.
Sup Mike, Joel (Jarroo & Nasir too)
Howdy

I am in the same lurking boat. Just sometimes surface to torpedo a passenger ship
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Last edited by joelcf, May 11, 2010 1:04am
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  #63347  
Old May 11, 2010 3:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Joel do you take interest in Cricket?
I'm Australian - it is about all we take an interest in After England did you a favour, we could have a bit of an intraforum grudge match coming up...

-----------
Aussie should behave interestingly tonight. Dont think the market really trusts labor that much at the moment to not try and dig us deeper into debt, so a modest budget could see a nice move. Or, if money gets thrown around like every other time... look out below.

Now, how about them pinbars?
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  #63455  
Old May 11, 2010 8:07pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by antgal23 View Post
I am reading Elder's 'Trading for a Living' and he suggests using Volume to help when trading Head and Shoulders

Do you know if Volume is a useful tool to get a better picture?
Volume can be useful, but to be honest, it would just give people something else to misinterpret (just like they do in the equity and futures markets). The way the forex market is structured today, the information wouldnt be worth much at all.

You will never get true volume in spot forex, for a couple of reasons. Primarily, because it is a decentralised market and so reliable data doesnt exist. All your broker will give you, if anything, is their volume. And that isnt too helpful. Or they construct a lame tick vol, which isnt the number of contracts traded, but the number of price microchanges.

Then take into account that a whole ton of volume is between instos, who generally dont trade through a cross-institutional broker anymore - it is all done directly through Reuters or EBS. So even if your brokers somehow passed on their upstream volume data, they would still be missing the majority of the most significant portion of the market.

But the biggest problem is that only around 30% third of forex is spot. So the volume data, even if you managed to get it, wouldnt be all that conclusive anyways. Around 40% of the market is swaps, and most (20%?) of the other third is forwards - all of which is institutional dealing. Which is what we would want to see.

(although this mix is constantly changing - it seems like swaps and spot are in a neverending battle, with swaps coming out ahead when the dealing mix moves more towards hedging, and spot ahead when the market swings back towards speculating)

Same with options - huge market, massive volume, entirely insto.... and (almost) entirely OTC.

This is why people using futures volume and trying to link it usually have trouble. Futures by vol are under 5%. Possibly around 3% from memory. Hence the reason why the volume data isnt useful at all (pricing data, on the other hand, can be).

The point? You dont need volume. And even if people had it, they couldnt rely on it. And even if they could rely on it, they would probably misinterpret it anyways.

........

As an aside (and I know I have caned him in the past), while Elder has some good insights into some topics like money management, record keeping and psych (if it is your thing ) - he is kind of a more readable Van Tharp - his trading advice is pretty terribad. I'd avoid it if I were you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv) View Post
I think you can find volume on the Options market, but if i'm not mistaken that market is not that liquid (between 5% - 10% of all forex market).

Any one can support it or maybe i'm wrong ?
Options volume is massive. Why? Because they are one of the best ways for a company to hedge downside risk while retaining upside rewards (albeit at a cost), and they are the only way to properly hedge uncertain future cashflows - a big thing with mining companies and investment banks.

But barely any of it is on exchange (I think Philly has some thin fx options, and CME has even thinner options over futures), so you just arent getting reliable, usable data.
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Last edited by joelcf, May 11, 2010 9:00pm
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  #63458  
Old May 11, 2010 8:34pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
If you're putting your every worth into one broker to start trading , you're crazy. No company is 100% guaranteed to stick around. But if it's a smaller, saner part of your wealth then one broker would be ok, and you could do worse than Oanda. IBFX seems ok too, less granularity though. Both USA based.
I'd say if you have your every worth in a spot forex trading, you are probably crazy as well

Oanda is a great introductory broker. Easy to use, easy to deal with, reliable, good spreads and that sweet granularity. IBFX was always good for me, though they can be a pain to get cash in/out of.
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  #63459  
Old May 11, 2010 8:39pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I have about a 10% accuracy rate of predicting which side price will break out on i4b's
<attach> short_dan_positions.mq4 </attach>
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  #63466  
Old May 11, 2010 9:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
Cash being hard to get out is a plus for me. lol
haha, you might be onto something there - my girlfriend cant buy shoes with swiss francs, and I cant see the pub accepting a SWIFT code for a round of pints at 2am
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  #63471  
Old May 11, 2010 9:51pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
LOL.... I am SOOOOO going to use the SWIFT code routine on a cute barmaid now.
I know there is a joke about 'routing numbers' in here somewhere...

Is it Friday already?
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  #63483  
Old May 12, 2010 3:38am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (Yaniv) View Post
Well, maybe i had mixed options and futures lol

But you can hedge not only with options, you can do it on the futures market as well. Am I correct?
Definitely correct. But most companies will do it with forwards or swaps instead, since they can be tailored to your particular cashflows (whereas, being exchange traded, futures need to be fungible - so you get stuck with standard terms). The only advantage of futures for most corporates would be the ability to sell them into the market if they are no longer needed or wanted... and even that one isnt huge, since there are other ways of doint that.

But you generally dont want to hedge uncertain cashflows with futures or forwards - if the cashflow never eventuates, you have effectively taken on currency risk. Which is bad. That's where options are ideal, because you dont have to exercise them.

None of which help us here, unfortunately, because they are almost all OTC. So you wont ever know about them. Unless you happen to work in a dealing room.
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  #63559  
Old May 12, 2010 9:39pm
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Sorry for my 'noobishness', but I wonder if Sunday bars can be a part of PA too?
I wouldnt. They are tiny volume. Most platforms dont even show them.

How many dealers are at work on a Sunday night?
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  #63665  
Old May 13, 2010 10:37am
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Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
My question is would I be better off using the broker who's 4h candle opens/closes at 1PM GMT/8 AM EST? My concern is that the majority of traders are watching different bars with different shapes and acting on different signals.
Watch both, get twice as many bars to read. You dont have to trade off the same account as your charts
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  #63733  
Old May 13, 2010 10:00pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FX Raider View Post
The only thing standing between success and failure in Trading is yourself. Get Mental.

Mental Fitness for Traders by Norman Hallet.
"90% of our mind's power is housed in the subconscious mind and is responsible for our behaviors, habits, and performance. That 90% can work for you or against you. Our subconscious training software will make sure that the 90% is working for you."

lol. No one has believed that for at least twenty years, Norm.

Stick to internet marketing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I think the best book in terms of trading psychology is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The book really lays out the path to failure and the reasons why some of the smartest traders still fail. READ IT.
ROASO is my favourite guide on how to be a degen gambler and make squillions on pork belly futures. I love it

Quote:
Originally Posted by tehuringa View Post
+1 on that....essential reading along with Pring on Price Patterns & Tharp's TYWTFF
Give Al Brooks' new book a read if you like Pring on Price. It's really, really good.



he uses small words, so even a kiwi can read it
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  #63740  
Old May 13, 2010 11:08pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
I don't have enough money on my paypal for all these books.....
tax deduction - its practically a 40% off sale!

I pick up alot of mine used - at least the older stuff. Suprising amount out there, between eBay, Amazon and betterworldbooks.

I think alot of people out there see a title, buy a book, and then never read it. I assume that knowledge magically transports into people's brains as soon as they purchase goods or services, I guess.
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  #63744  
Old May 13, 2010 11:38pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
Al Brooks is good, but, I don't understand what he tried to say, difficult writing for me,that's pity
Yeah, he is about as eloquent as a drunken hyena. It's a struggle to get through some parts.
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  #63750  
Old May 14, 2010 3:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Buying books???

What about torrents.
.
Wonder what Jim's opinion would be on people pirating his videos and materials from the pf and then torrenting them to everyone for free.
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Last edited by joelcf, May 14, 2010 3:16am Reason: grammar is for geeses!
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  #63913  
Old May 16, 2010 8:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
As for position sizing, to me that is as simple as it gets. %R. Most effective way to take advantage of compounding and bet sizing when winning and losing.
I think this is a really important point that alot of people miss. By construction, a %R system automatically increases the position size of a winning trader and decreases the position size of a losing trader. And by choosing an appropriate R (ie, somewhere around 2%), you minimise the risk of going bankrupt due to variance* to practically zero.

Making this one change would probably save a hell of alot of people from themselves. They wont admit to it, but I bet there are a stack of people here who put an arbitary $100/30%/1 full lot/$x per pip/etc on every trade. Unless you have a good reason for doing that, you probably shouldnt be. And you probably dont have a good reason.

2%. Just do it.


*if you have a losing approach, the best MM in the world cant save you. you wont go bankrupt from variance, just from being bad.
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Last edited by joelcf, May 16, 2010 8:53pm
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  #63930  
Old May 17, 2010 12:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
any pa setup will serve confirmation. the question is, is it a good place to do touch trade now?
I see 11 out of the last 12 bars being bearish, and all those except two have been big range bearish bars. Including the last bar. You want to blind trade it long after dropping 1600 points in a fortnight? Into weak economic news?

The phrase 'snatching a penny from in front of a freight train' comes to mind.

Unless this comes out with the king kong of pinbars, I wouldnt go near it. Hell, even then, I probably wouldnt go near it long.

Maybe if Kong teamed up with Godzila, Mothra and Batman for the biggest reversal in history... maybe.
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  #63937  
Old May 17, 2010 2:48am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
It looked to me exhaustion tentatively.
Would you mind expanding? Curious, since we clearly see different things!
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  #63939  
Old May 17, 2010 3:20am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeurre View Post
I don't know if I read it correctly, just a gut feeling from the market rythem.

first 3 large bearish bars followed by weakening 3 bearish bars consecutively after congestion. so, at this important technical area, won't be surprised to see at least a congestion, I think.
An 'exhaustion' bar is typically a huge range bar (it needs to be a significantly larger range than recent bars) with a weak close in the reverse direction, usually following a gap in the trend direction. Essentially, its a big pinbar after a gap... which is why they give a decent reversal signal

(for anyone wondering wtf we are talking about, Pring covers them pretty thoroughly in MPoPP. edit: p278! http://books.google.com.au/books?id=...ed=0CDMQ6AEwBg# )

None of that really applies here. It's roughly the same range as the previous bars, it closed strongly in the direction of the trend. And that congestion was short term profit taking from the reversal.

All I see is a bigass downtrend which will run you over in a split second if you try fading it on the basis of a ppz.
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  #63944  
Old May 17, 2010 7:06am
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Originally Posted by (Yaniv) View Post
Nice one, short on GOLD with a bar that have a strong potential.

BEOB on the 5H TF.

Went right to FTA.
Is that a short on the break of the BEOB?
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  #64059  
Old May 18, 2010 5:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danku View Post
I justed noticed that my broker introduced a Sunday Bar on the MT4 Platform, James16 mentioned something about this bar and how to trade or not to trade it sometime back........................anyone know where i can find that post or how should we trade based on this Sunday Bars...........bar is the one with a yellow cross........because of this Sunday Bar, i have an IB Fakey Sell Signal which i did not take because i am worried about this Sunday Bar..................does this mean the market was opened or what does it exactly mean?...
Ignore sunday bars. They are super low volume, short session and most people dont even show them on charts, since the only people trading them are a couple of hobos under a bridge.
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  #64072  
Old May 18, 2010 7:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
classic teaching and was just discussed on the forum is you follow the higher time frames.
You don't decide on a tick chart to go long when the weekly chart is saying short.
It really depends on your trade horizon. If you are trading a tick chart, you can definitely take long or short positions, regardless of what the weekly says.

Multiframe confluence is nice if you want to swing a position, but it isnt by any means necessary. As a general rule, I only care about the weekly if I am looking at the daily. If I am looking at a 5m chart, the weekly could be on the beach in Cancun for all I care.

Obviously, this is a different situation to one where you are trying to massage a nice entry (that sounded a bit suspect!) on one timeframe by droppingdown to a lower one.
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  #64190  
Old May 19, 2010 1:07am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
gold pin about to die????

shocking!
Lucky you didnt enter, since it didnt break the high

*edit* also, given what we know about pin bars, how they are played and where stops are placed...
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Last edited by joelcf, May 19, 2010 1:18am
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