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  #60012  
Old Apr 5, 2010 9:43pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ira View Post
From time to time I hear talks that small accounts, let's say up to 50 000$, are not led into a real market. So, you are basicly trading with the broker, or better say - against the broker. When you are losing money it's ok, but when you start trading profitable for months, here the problems begin: like deleting deals from the history, spikes etc. I have even heard that some brokers have black lists of profitable traders, and they put someone to monitor all your trades and to make everything for you to lose money.
As usual, Mike covered this pretty well, so I'll just add a couple of things while I wait for my coffee and breakfast.

Most everyone here is not having their order placed in the 'real market'. Why? Because they are too damn small. No one is getting on the phone with the desk at Societe and trying to sell them a thousand euro exposure.

(you have no idea how hard it is to do italics on an iphone!)

What is actually happening is that your trades are pooled at the broker end and either

a) matched off with other client orders - eg, Rac is long while you are short, as seems to often be the case, so the broker just crosses the orders to end up risk neutral. For the tinfoil hat brigade, this is going to be automated.

b) added to a hedged exposure - the bank might be short EUR30m, so they just add your microlot order to the other side to hedge their book. Or they might be trying to build an exposure (most traders/books have authority to hold certain levels of exposure), so they add your tiny order to that

c) pooled into a marketable parcel and then sold if it isnt something they want to hold. This could be done via an ECN, or it could be done offline (bank A has a long yen position, bank b has a short yen position, they call each other and sort it out in a larger overall end of day matchoff, then go get drunk)

The thing is that whether you are at an ECN broker or not, the same thing is happening. It is just shared between a bunch of parties. The stuff I have read in some threads here is priceless - people seriously think there is some Gollum-like figure sitting in a cave, watching his screen for their microlot long yen order and then shorting the market a couple hundred million to stop them out.

The whole thing is just, as mike pointed out, paranoia from people who lose money trading and want to blame someone else. It's never their fault, its always their broker, or their ISP, or HFT, or hedge funds, or Obama...

---

Also, the whole thing about 'black lists' for profitable traders is retarded if people would think about it for approximately half a second. If you had a client with a 90% win rate, and he is sending you his orders, do you

a) sell/pass the orderflow information to your big clients who turn over huge commissions in return for this exact kind of info
b) frontrun his orders to make profit for yourself
c) blacklist him and make him move to another broker

...
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  #60014  
Old Apr 5, 2010 10:19pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by printer69 View Post
PS talking about numbers I calculated that from page 1 where I started a month ago to page 4000 up to date now of this thread it will take, considering my 30 minutes medium time on each page to study it well in depth:

120.000 minutes wich is
2000 hours, considering 2 hours study each day is
1000 days !!! more or less 3 years...
and you are keep posting so will never reach you...

just joking of course will finish your suggested first 100 pages and some Pring/MM/psychology books while reading your up to date daily posts and then will move to...
30 minutes per page? God no. My average is probably less than a minute per page. Which makes the thread about 66 hours, which is less than a month's work at a leisurely 2 hours(ish) a day.

Sure, you might reread a lengthy Jaroo post five times. And restudy one of Jims charts a bunch of time. And spend ten minutes laughing at the photo of the giant pig. But you will cruise through 90% of the material here as fast as your eyes can move.

Newbies, dont despair
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  #60018  
Old Apr 6, 2010 12:14am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
Sir joel,
1 question:
are u using the default 15posts per page or the customized 40posts per page?

right, as one progresses, the time spent in every page here shortens.
Default, I assume, since my last page is 4002... but I suspect my answer wouldnt change much anyways
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  #60078  
Old Apr 7, 2010 12:56am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
it's VERY difficult to trade well when you are under pressure. DO NOT trade live now. u will most likely lose all of your $500. & if that happens, it will aggravate your problem/s.
Especially when you have no background, no experience, a micro account and want to make 100% per month, plus probably an extra 10% for account growth and to cushion against variance.

When someone says to me that they are almost broke, about to lose their job and need to support themselves, my first thought has never been 'you should try swing trading your entire savings on leveraged spot foreign exchange contracts over the internet'.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 7, 2010 1:07am
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  #60312  
Old Apr 8, 2010 7:35pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
After all.
ONE is THE First Prime BRN.
One isnt a prime number
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  #60316  
Old Apr 8, 2010 7:43pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Then he is simply Twice that.
hehe, i dont know if a single digit can do him justice. maybe we need some kind of symbol.
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  #60318  
Old Apr 8, 2010 7:45pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert View Post
this is how cults start ^^
Hey now, if Batman can have one...
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  #60367  
Old Apr 9, 2010 1:42am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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I had way too much sake at lunch for macroeconomics, but...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cyrus View Post
Bottom line: It takes alota moolah to change the trend. Does the C/bank have enough? Boils down to SS & DD per se.
Not even that complex sometimes. Bundy summed it up here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
The CHF pairs are scary at the moment. They keep intervening randomly.
I have to admit , I'm spooked out of trading them for now.
The SNB cant stop the franc naturally appreciating - it is a strong, safe currency - and they need it that way (the banking industry is a major component of their GDP, and no one wants an unstable swiss bank account!). And with the swiss economy improving, rate rises and increased stability is only going to continue this path.

What they can do, however, is stop a bunch of clownshoes accelerating the natural growth by piling their money in long chf (ie, short EURCHF/USDCHF/GBPCHF) thinking it is a no brainer, easy money trade. How? By firing shots at them every once in a while to keep them on their toes.

Bundy risks what on a trade, a thousand bucks? And as an informed market participant with a decent size stake, he doesnt want any part of it. What if you had a hundred million? You might think twice before shorting EURCHF.

Combine this with a bit of running your mouth in the media, and you dont even need to spend so much - as soon as people see a spike, hedge funds dump their shorts (figuratively, I hope ) and amplify the effect of your market moves.

So it's less about changing the trend (which is impossible with solely market moves), and more about cutting back the speculation which accelerates it.
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  #60373  
Old Apr 9, 2010 2:11am
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
So why don't we short them after every intervention especially Eur/Chf?

(Ooops i hope it was't anybody's secret. lol)
.
Plenty of people do, hence the trend continuing. In doing so, you are implicitly assumuing that they arent going to do it again right away. Which isnt always the case, which makes it a speculative percentage play on the odds of a repeat. More uncertainty makes speculation less profitable which slows the rate of appreciation. Make it less attractive to people running real money, and they will move their efforts elsewhere.

And even if everyone did, as price approaches the 'line in the sand' (or, to us, a PPZ), the rate of speculation drops off dramatically (and the rate of non-dramatic manipulation increases too, but thats another story)

As I said, their goal isnt to weaken their currency forever (in fact, that would be bad for the country). It's just to slow the rate enough for the economy to get back to firing - exporters start making enough money to start hiring people who start spending money who let domestic producers make money who then hire more people and so on.
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  #60710  
Old Apr 12, 2010 7:38pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bertie123 View Post
you read 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark douglas he stresses that attitude, patience and discipline are far more imoportant in the longer term than 'price bars' etc.
While that sounds nice, all the happy thoughts and discipline in the world arent going to make you a cent unless you know how to trade.

Trading in the Zone is pretty overrated imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by artov View Post
Big BEOB about to close on aud/usd. There is definately a lot of traffic ahead (1st target) so I would limit my risk there.
Not saying you are wrong, but thats alot of risk for very little reward.

Assuming you have a standard 10pip trigger on it and an 8 pip spread, thats like 20 pips profit. Maybe. But lets be generous and say 30 (edit: or, not assume a retarded spread!). We probably dont want to assume we are going to get a runner here - as you rightly point out, it is stuck in the middle of traffic city.

Your risk is what, 140pips or so?

So, at the base level, you pretty much need to believe that this setup is around 85% certain to get to that first level. And that was being optimistic. Being more realistic bumps it up to 90%ish.

That's a pretty big call.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 12, 2010 8:59pm
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  #60712  
Old Apr 12, 2010 7:48pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
whoa Joel, we gotta talk about where you are trading!
lol, now you mention it that does sound pretty bad. Mine hovers around 1pip. I just pulled up the last chart I had saved from the thread and it had a 6 pip spread, so I added a couple for the time. Oanda tells me that it is about 2 pips, which sounds alot better.
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