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  #66518  
Old Jun 16, 2010 8:34pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan-FX View Post
I know I'm new to this thread but just wanted to share. I've lost half my account over the last 12 months and that's with most of my strategies breaking even and every now then doing something stupid out of frustration and losing a decent %.
Welcome - and dont worry, we have all been there. Well, except maybe mike, because he is some kind of trading robot.

The guidelines, material and assistance in here is more than enough to make you profitable. Take advantage

Quote:
Originally Posted by bug View Post
If 70% of the information has been rendered completely useless, what point is there in following it?
Just like program trading destroyed the information content of price/volume in the late eighties.

Or electronic exchanges before that.

Or mechanical systems before that.

If you are arguing that 'HFT' (which, to be honest, is the current boogeyman and a hugely misused and vague term) has removed the information content of volume, wouldn't you also have to argue that it has done the same to price?

I wouldnt argue that a book written in Arabic has no information content. Rather, I would probably say that I dont know how to read it, so it adds nothing to my knowledge. Very different things.

It also leaves me with the option of either learning Arabic, or deciding that the trouble of learning to read it wont benefit me enough in terms of the information gained.

Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
ddinnov - I am not sure price always follows the rules with gold and especially silver.
Of course it does.There might be differences in the way you should trade some instruments, different moving averages may mean different things, etc - but the movement of price is always the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
For me price is due to come down, which it just did.
I'd wager that more money has been lost on people betting that 'x has to come down/go up' than anything else. When Keynes said that markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent, he wasnt messing around.

(His last words were also 'I should have drunk more champagne', so he clearly knew a thing or two)
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  #66519  
Old Jun 16, 2010 8:34pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ghous View Post
During the early days it does often happen that a PA bar jumps out at you before the preceding price action or the overall location of the bar itself. (And I am not talking about pulling down fibs from the recent swings) You need to understand this and at all times refrain from choosing a particular bar in a shoddy location by virtue of it's length or shape alone.
This is way more important than people realise. And sadly, most people will skip your post and move onto the next chart they see.

When starting out, we all run around the charts, looking for the magical bar with the right shape and not caring about location. I sure as hell did. But like Mike and Jim have said a million times, location is way more important than shape. Which is why you get your ass handed to you as a beginner

After all, a pin in traffic is just a trading range. And so buying a bullish pin is just buying at the top of a range - not really such a killer trade now, is it? It's also why waiting until a setup breaks is so vital - at least then you are looking at a breakout from the range.

Context is everything.
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  #66522  
Old Jun 16, 2010 9:11pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nasir.khan View Post
Hey Joel,

If remember correctly AU and Gold were "Correlated" some days ago and now there moving exactly opposite.

Any Insight?
Insight? Never.
Random thoughts? Sure

The problem with the whole 'commodity currency' thing that people love to throw around is that it sounds nice and commonsense - until it breaks down.

You have to look at overall market sentiment. In normal times, audusd and gold will be nicely correlated... because they are both priced in terms of USD. USD down automatically means AUD and gold up (here is where I would throw in ceteris paribus to sound more professional and sell more ebooks).

Importantly, gold is seen as a commodity, and Australia makes a decent amount of it. In fact, a huge amount. So you get the nice purchasing effect (people wanting gold means an increased demand for AUD) as well as the export effect (gold makes up a huge proportion of our national exports, so rising gold means more income - which increases national income which, eventually, leads to higher interest rates...which leads to an increase in demand for AUD in the carry trade).

But when we move away from a 'normal' market and into one where risk aversion becomes more important - ie, recently - the relationship breaks down. Now, AUD is seen as a speculative currency , and USD and gold are seen as a safe haven (ie, a hedging vehicle rather than a commodity). So negative news will see a selloff of AUD (mostly in exchange for yen and USD - the unwinding of the carry trade), and money flowing into gold. So the exact opposite.

I guess, like everything, it is all about context.
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  #66525  
Old Jun 16, 2010 9:31pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
He is wrong about the government or public sector playing a big role in the economy. Free markets do not cause inflation, depressions, etc.
An unfettered free market would absolutely cause both those things. The whole point of Keynesian economics is to dampen those effects. Whether it is an ideal or practical answer is another matter, but history has shown that it is one of the more effective ways. There is a reason monetarianism was quickly abandoned.

This is a whole huge offtopic tangent I try and avoid in here, but I see it as less of a problem with the basic ISLM model, and more with the way that it is twisted for political ends. All of a sudden, we ignore these things when times are good, and when things invariably move back the other way, stimulating the economy becomes a targetted vote grab. Australia is a particularly bad example of this practice.

Same goes for pure free market economics. Politicians looking to grab a few cheap points love to take shots at bankers, big businesses, the wealthy, etc as 'free markets out of control!#$' and other assorted rubbish, and propose all kinds of ridiculous legislation to buy votes from the uneducated....ignoring the fact that is it almost always government intervention (often well intentioned) that caused the problems in the first place.

Once politicians get involved, anything is invariably ruined. Bleh.

</offtopic>
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Last edited by joelcf, Jun 16, 2010 9:49pm
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  #66531  
Old Jun 16, 2010 10:46pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Firstly, the substantive

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashquest View Post
I must admit through my research this market has intrigued me and I am certainly lucky to have found this group. James seams to have learnt the hard way as many do in this industry and many others. It is rare to find someone who is willing to share that experience
You are dead right there. The amount of system-pushing rubbish out there is incredible. Pile that on top of the volume of ill informed (but well meaning) comment and 'analysis' from amatuer traders and you quickly figure out that this place is a needle in a haystack. The amount of 'gold' in here is incredible, and the commitment and thought given by the regular posters (ie, Mike/Jim/Bundy/SC/etc) and occasional snipers (Aaron, Jim, Boss and so on) is top notch. And free.

This is the only public trading thread on the internet I have bookmarked.


Quote:
Originally Posted by cashquest View Post
Once I have the very basics under my belt I will move to understanding this thread although what I have read so far on strategy makes perfect sense and it is an approach I can identify with - treat trading as a business, practice and test until you can prove your are able to make money before you make any investment.
A very sound approach.

Dont be shy about posting 'dumb' beginner questions here. All of us have been through (or are going through) the learning process, and you will find that people are very willing to help explain things. There are alot of concepts that seem completely infuriating until someone with a different perspective explains them in their own words.

And that's one of the best things that happens here - no one is a zealot. Everyone has taken the material and adapted it to their own personality, aims and beliefs. So you get a bunch of knowledgeable, friendly people with different viewpoints - for a given setup, you might get 4 or 5 different opinions from people with different approaches. And that gives a huge boost in the learning process.


...and then the not so substantive

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashquest View Post
Like many people looking for a better life a few years ago I read Rich Dad Poor Dad which made it very clear that a having a job would not make your rich and the only way was to achieve such ambitions is to be a business owner or investor.
I know plenty of rich people with a job. But that doesnt really sell books as well as 'make millions from home! dont be a slave to the man! et cetera!'

The best use of a Kiyosaki book is kindling, imho.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashquest View Post
I have always been interested in business and although like everyone I hear of bankers bonuses and their shopping sprees after bonus time I have always seen it as gambling and dismissed trading as an unreliable way to become rich.
Most people dont know this, but very very few bankers are traders (or, usually, dealers).
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Last edited by joelcf, Jun 16, 2010 11:03pm
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  #66543  
Old Jun 17, 2010 12:03am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Really? I didn't know that free markets can print their own money or impose progresstive taxes onto themselves that disincentivise economic growth. I guess the Keynesian economics "is to dampen those effects" are "well intentioned". The U.S hasn't had a free market in over 100 years, in was called the Roaring 20s.
That's the main cause of the problem. What begins as good intentions (ie, dampen the business cycle to reduce the severity of a crash) ends up being the cause of even more problems. In an attempt to be seen as 'managers of the economy' and appeal to special interest groups, politicians meddle constantly. The recent troubles can almost all be traced back to political interference.

The crash leading to the Depression of the 30s was largely a natural result of an unrestrained free market (though it could be argued that monetary policy contributed) - but it was the Government interference that followed that turned a crash into a decade long depression. Bubbles and crashes werent new, but making them a hell of alot worse was.

In the end, there isnt a perfect system, because people never behave the way that models think they should. And I also suspect that we agree a whole lot more than you think.

...and I think that's enough of my offtopic rambling for the day


Personally, if I could visit any time in the past, it would absolutely be the late 1910s- mid twenties. Wear a fedora, short some pork bellies off a tickertape, do the Charleston with Gatsby and Livermore, sip whisky with Rockefeller, Morgan and Carnegie (Andrew, not Dale).

Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
But it is off topic and I'm not as well read as you, my brother. I sure you can run circles around this topic. So I'll end it.
Nah. In the end, it is all about the way people, as a group, act - which means every person's opinion should carry as much weight as the next. Anyone that tries to cloak things with complex terms, technicalities or qualifications is usually trying to cover up a weakness in their own argument - myself included

----------------------------
Happy birthday, j16 thread. That graph Ghous posted is pretty damn impressive.

I saw Jim lurking here before, so hopefully he is free of his 'responsibilities' and gets a chance to pop back in
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Last edited by joelcf, Jun 17, 2010 12:14am
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  #66557  
Old Jun 17, 2010 12:43am
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spookie94 View Post
I'm using GFT. I may have to open a meta trader demo so I can post images here. Any recommendations on a good broker who has a demo without having to open an account?
You can still post Dealbook images, but as to why the hell they dont just let you export images...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...25#post3487825

(or, as Dan suggests a few posts below that, the new Windows 'Snipping Tool' is kinda neat)


As for free broker demos, I cant see much reason not to use IBFX.
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