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  #60780  
Old Apr 13, 2010 10:13pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Here guys, you can attach this to Any Pair, Any Timeframe. {The Text one on the Chart. Not the indi. in lower subframe.}
Thanks Bemac, that's really cool. I always do these calcs by hand in my journal before each trade, just to decide whether the EV is good enough for me to trade, and its kind of a pain to be honest.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bemac View Post
Contrary to Popular belief, if you look across the board, a Pip is not commonly worth $10.00
People forget that currencies are pairs, and pairs are not always USD short
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  #61273  
Old Apr 19, 2010 8:43pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Originally Posted by bundyraider View Post
The gold coast is like where every one has moved to (it seams. lol ). So, as you can imagine, it's pretty good , but aaahhhh a little over burdened (???? lol), but there are some real magic destinations off the beaten track where there are a few less tourists and all the other crap that comes from being a popular place to live.
The Gold Coast is entirely comprised of old people in white shoes and drunk 17yo kids

The islands, on the other hand, are beautiful - just avoid the ones packed with tourists and they are an awesome time. I loved Hayman and Lord Howe. Too many backpackers and bogans on Hamilton and Fraser when I went, not sure if it was just because of the time of year though (November).


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mauzzz View Post
Doesn't the fact itself that such a small percentage of people make it in this bussiness make you "extraordinary" when you're among that small percentage? There's got to be something extraordinary in those who make it which sets them apart from the majority of people who fail.
Not really. The 'small percentage' isnt as small as people like to claim. I can think of a couple of reasons that people might want to exagerate the failure:success ratio, but that's another topic.

But even if it really was only 5% of people make it... that says more about the player pool than the talent at the top. Take a stroll through the wilderness of FF, and a couple of things stand out - basically, from what i can tell, forex trading attracts get-rich-quick desperados, work-from-homers who have moved on from other scammy 'jobs' (like investing in HYIPs, PLR/reseller junk, 417 schemes) and people with a hundred dollars (which may or may not be alot of money in their country) who think they can turn it into millions...both of whom, in turn, attract a group we all love - scammers.

Probably has to do with the high leverage, low barriers to entry and non-regulated nature of it.

So, being adequately capitalised, understanding basic risk management, aiming for a realistic return and having some modicum of self control (which comes from not being desperate/reliant on your bankroll) when things go against you automatically puts you above at least half the people on FF. And people here are the ones (mainly) interested in learning, and so are probably skewed towards the top end of the curve anyways.... so think of all the people who you dont see here. Nothing extrodinary about that.

Anytime I start thinking I am somehow extraordinary, I just remember that Japanese housewives made a killing running carry trades over the last decade or so....
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  #61277  
Old Apr 19, 2010 9:12pm
joelcf's Avatar
My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Originally Posted by scott087 View Post
On many setups, even those with decent space, it seems like the first trouble area is way too close after taking certain factors into account--like the buffer, the spread, and taking action a few pips before the exact trouble spot. After adding all of these up, it seems like I am at the first trouble spot right away.
...
After adding this all up, I have about 10-15 pips of movement before I need to take action (move stops to be/take profits etc.)
...
I'm curious to see what other have to say about this, because I hate moving my stop up at the...
It's definitely true, especially of late (hooray for choppy, ranging markets!). So you often end up with a situation as you said, which usually gives you a terrible risk to reward ratio and so kills your EV on the trade.

I guess there are two ways of looking at it.

You could just get your stop to BE and try and get a freeroll at a longer trade. Most of the time, your trade will go to FTA and then stop you out. Sometimes, you might make a loss. Sometimes, you might get a small movement which stalls so you close out for a 0.5R profit. Rarely, you might get a 5R runner. Your EV might look something like
EV = (50% * 0R) + (10% * 0.5R) + (10% * 5R) - (30% * 1R)
= 0.25R

(ive expressed everything in terms of your risk, R, because its easier to work with. But if that just makes it confusing for anyone, change 'R' to 'pips' and multiply by ten/fifty/whatever)
Obviously, this has the advantage that you *might* get in on a runner - the long tail of your EV, so to speak, is where you make your money. But your losses will kill you. It also doesnt consider the *very* rare time where you hit a 3500 pip runner, AUDUSD style, but those outside chances really boost the returns significantly.

Alternately, you could just close at FTA. using 0.5R from the previous,
EV = (70% * 0.5R) - (30% * 1R)
= 0.05R
....

obviously, there are a world of variations in there, and the percentages you work with are never going to be entirely accurate (no matter how much historical data you look at). The best approach might be one of tailoring your trades to the type of movement you expect - if there is multiple levels of strong resistance, maybe you just take your quick profit. But if you are looking at something which looks like it has just broken through a strong level, and the only resistence is weak, maybe you allow it more space.

Or you could get pickier, mike style, and only take trades where you think the potential reward (ie, distance to FTA) is worth your time, effort and risk capital. That way, you boost *all* areas of your expected return - your chance of it reversing is lower, there is more profit available at your FTA if you decide to take it, and trading a stronger setup means that you are going to increase your probability of knocking it out of the ballpark. Obviously, the downside is that you dont get as many trades, but to be honest, that gives more time to watch TV, play poker, finish Final Fantasy and teach your dog to fetch things.

In the end, though, you gotta do what suits you. If constantly getting stopped at BE frustrates you and makes you start steaming, maybe a quick in, quick out system is more profitable for you. And the converse.
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 19, 2010 10:20pm
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  #61278  
Old Apr 19, 2010 9:22pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Originally Posted by mbqb11 View Post
yeah but then we all know what happened to them in a very short time
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lol, always trade with a stop?
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  #61288  
Old Apr 19, 2010 10:17pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
Member Since Jun 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
personally, it's easy to & i have transcended the 'money part'.
in fact, there are certain things/jobs that i'll take even without remuneration.
Definitely. Drinks taster for Tallisker, scuba instructor on Maui, bra fitter for Scarlett Johansson....
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  #61421  
Old Apr 20, 2010 6:52pm
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My gun control is a steady hand.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinnocchio_S View Post
Do you guys think this is indicative of some kind of insider trading going on behind the scenes?
Inside of what? The Department of Labor?

And no. It is just informed market participants positioning themselves for a market event.

You have to keep in mind that NFP is just a release of a compiled statistic - in this case, employment figures. Investment/insto banks, hedge funds and big end private traders all have a pretty good idea of what the number is going to be since they have a bigass staff of economists (or, often, they engage economic research firms) who compile their own statistics.

It's like guessing whether it is going to be hot today. You can wait for the weather report on TV, or you can go outside and check for yourself. Most of the time, your answer is going to mirror the one the TV tells you in an hour. It doesnt mean that you have sources inside CNN
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Last edited by joelcf, Apr 20, 2010 7:28pm
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