james16 Chart Thread

jarroo · #**62258** Apr 29, 2010 2:13am

Quote:

Originally Posted by skinfx

enter demo this pair on break of BEOB. Not the highest bar on swing high location. But what i see is it is trading away from PPZ. and my FTA is at 1.64. so still got some room for it to move. any comments are welcome.... thanks alot...

rdgs,
skin

Nice one skin. Good target.

Don't think that the other BEOB (4.23) isn't in play here . . it is.

Nice trade.

jarroo · #**62262** Apr 29, 2010 2:26am

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

lol when Ghous gets on here he's gonna crack up

So its like gauze with a "s" instead of a "z". Or grouse with out the "r" like the bird?

jarroo · #**62363** Apr 29, 2010 4:52pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by skinfx

enter demo this pair on break of BEOB. Not the highest bar on swing high location. But what i see is it is trading away from PPZ. and my FTA is at 1.64. so still got some room for it to move. any comments are welcome.... thanks alot...

rdgs,
skin

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

Nice one skin. Good target.

Don't think that the other BEOB (4.23) isn't in play here . . it is.

Nice trade.

Man . . I'll tell you skin . . it seems right when I posted the post above . . Price shot straight up to the moon. The 1.64 was a reasonable expectation for this setup. Virtually no traffic except for that previous High (green line). No testing of the break and a little hesitation at the 1.65 (as we would expect) then to the moon Alice.

It is, what it is (never cared for that expression) but its true. There was a target. A previous bar High.

What does it tell me? That the up trend is very strong. If a high quality setup, which I categorize this one to be, can't even cut through a reasonble FTA or hits its FTA and breaks hard the other way . . . something going on. Meaning in this case, the uptrend is strong.

jarroo · #**62364** Apr 29, 2010 5:25pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by jspeakman

Hi

Just wondered how rigid you might be on the free trade approach or do you allow some discretion to tuck your SL behind a BRN/PPZ if it might cost 5-10pips if price retraced. Sort of taking Joel's point about not necessarily advisable always to stick to rigid r:r ratios. Hope that make sense!

J

Quote:

Originally Posted by joelcf

I'm a big fan on basing your stops on PA. Makes sense to me that if you are going to enter on PA, you can use it to give you an idea of what price might do after you enter. If there is a big PPZ sitting on a BRN, my short entry is always
going to be under it, so I see no reason not to put my stop behind it too - usually around ten pips. Be interested to hear J's thoughts.

Then again, I'm also a big fan of Cherry Coke Zero and McDonalds animal cookies, so feel free to disregard

I would say I'm pretty rigid but I understand yours and Joel's point.

Referring back to the Aud/Usd Daily PB.

If that green line (Daily PPZ) was the .9000 instead of the 0.9252 I might move my -20 pip S/L to under the .9000 (about 10-15 pips under as Joel said) and except the loss if it happens.

But remember the confirmations that I'm looking for when the setup breaks. (blue lines)

Price breaks and never looks back, Price breaks the FTA and retests it, then to the moon and/or Price retest the break of the setup and then to the moon.

If Price does none of this after the break . . I'm out for a net zero loss. Will Price retrace deeper into the setup and then go to the moon? Sure, but I would rather watch it and see what happens with no skin in the game.

jarroo · #**62366** Apr 29, 2010 5:34pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danku

Anyone know something called CT...............

Counter Trend, as in counter trend trades.

Sorry none of my fellow J16ers could not help you with this Danku. I find it hard to believe no one was on the thread at this time.

jarroo · #**62367** Apr 29, 2010 5:38pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghous

g.

Thanks g. lol

jarroo · #**62373** Apr 29, 2010 8:27pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by joelcf

lol, I didnt think it was a question, I thought he was making a point about the chart. Oops.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

yeah same here lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danku

Just remember when you take a CT Trade Ryanmcd, myself and all other Big Boys/Dogs will be on the other side, Ryanmcd 80% and me, 60% of the time........coz of inexperience..........

Keep taking the CTs all...........

Sorry guys . . . I guess I read that wrong. My mistake.

jarroo · #**62402** Apr 30, 2010 2:47am

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Hi Jarroo, would you say that the loss on this trade is inevitable? Meaning that this was one of those good setups that doesn't work out?

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Hi SC, yes that's the one. Well i was aware of that single bar high. But with such a good set up and that size of BEOB bar I didn't expect that single bar high would present any trouble. Instead I expected the price to went down at least to 1.64 level before it bounced (same as Jarroo analysis). Even when I look back at the trade right now, I still come out with the same conclusion. So I really would like some opinion on this particular trade.
I believe we can learn more from losing trades than winning trades.

Inevitable loss? Maybe , I didn't trade it but I sure watched it like I did.

Noticing that once Price hit that bar high (green line) then went up and showed no sign of testing the break was a red flag. This is easy to say after the fact but let me show some high quality setups on the same pair that acted the way their suppose too.

jarroo · #**62404** Apr 30, 2010 2:59am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

Inevitable loss? Maybe , I didn't trade it but I sure watched it like I did.

Noticing that once Price hit that bar high (green line) then went up and showed no sign of testing the break was a red flag. This is easy to say after the fact but let me show some high quality setups on the same pair that acted the way their suppose too.

One can say that the yesterday's setup was not at a swing high but in a consoldation area. Well the consolidation area was at swing high and I've seen them work out just fine, especially at a BRN, 1.6500.

Anyway, let's look at the 2 Day PB Nov. 2009 and end of Jan PB of this year.

jarroo · #**62405** Apr 30, 2010 3:37am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

One can say that the yesterday's setup was not at a swing high but in a consoldation area. Well the consolidation area was at swing high and I've seen them work out just fine, especially at a BRN, 1.6500.

Anyway, let's look at the 2 Day PB Nov. 2009 and end of Jan PB of this year.

The 2 Day PB (Nov. 17-18) looks strong in structure (Close in lower then the Open). . big bars off a BRN, 1.7000. A bit more traffic than we would like but tradable in my book.

4 Hour Chart. Well looky there, after the 2 Day formed an 8 hour PB is formed. Juicy. What a great added confirmation that this 2 Day PB has a good chance.

Price breaks the 8 Hour PB and then hangs around and then breaks 2 Day PB. Price doesn't even look back or tests the 8 hour PB once the 2 Day is broken. Sweet. Price then hangs round the 2 day PB break. This could be because the time of day, this happen during the Asian session. London is when it starts moving.

Price continues and hits the Daily 1st target and breaks through. Then it test the 1st target. Then it continues and breaks through the 2nd target then . . you guess it . . starts test it again.

Continuous movement in our direction.

jarroo · #**62407** Apr 30, 2010 3:57am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

The 2 Day PB (Nov. 17-18) looks strong in structure (Close in lower then the Open). . big bars off a BRN, 1.7000. A bit more traffic than we would like but tradable in my book.

4 Hour Chart. Well looky there, after the 2 Day formed an 8 hour PB is formed. Juicy. What a great added confirmation that this 2 Day PB has a good chance.

Price breaks the 8 Hour PB and then hangs around and then breaks 2 Day PB. Price doesn't even look back or tests the 8 hour PB once the 2 Day is broken. Sweet. Price then hangs round the 2 day PB break. This could...

Jan. PB again same nice features as the other one but a bit of traffic.

4 hour/ Hourly chart, Price breaks hard . . that's what I'm talking about baby. We can see on the Hourly the breaks and retests of the respective targets.

Price then retraces hard back in the setup but we are not surprised why it did what it did.

Now esbatu go look at yesterday's gbp/chf and look at the 4 hour and hourly charts and see if you can see the difference between these examples of how price behaved after it broke.

(shoot . . you can tell by the Daily lol)

jarroo · #**62408** Apr 30, 2010 4:09am

Quote:

Originally Posted by supremeChaos

if we look at the finer details, the latter two are protruding (imho, these two were upside 'false breaks'). whereas the yesterday's BEOB (now formed a BUOB or a 2-bar daily PB) is embedded entirely in the consolidation.

Good observation sChoas. The latter two were on top of a consoldation"ish" area where as yesterday's was inside as with the 4-23 BEOB as well. This could be the difference to give it a pass.

jarroo · #**62410** Apr 30, 2010 4:24am

Quote:

Originally Posted by joelcf

Stick around and help me justify my NBG speculative play, lol

I would wait for break/pull back and pull the trigger on the retest with a tight stop on that PB joel. Looks good in size. but then again you know what they say about counter trend trades.

.

keep us up to date on this . . what ever it is.

jarroo · #**62412** Apr 30, 2010 4:30am

Quote:

Originally Posted by supremeChaos

Sir jarroo,
it's National Bank of Greece.

lol Thanks.

jarroo · #**62414** Apr 30, 2010 4:45am

Anyone take this one.

Now this is a hard and fast break example.

jarroo · #**62416** Apr 30, 2010 4:51am

Quote:

Originally Posted by skinfx

Hi Jim,

Thanks for the follow-up. So at which point and which Time Frame should i look at to cut-losses instead of taking a full bar loss.

Rgds,
skin

When I have a setup that I will trade, I have the Daily, 4 hour and Hourly Open on the same pair. I have my 1st target and FTAs in clear view. If it doesn't break hard and fast I watch how Price behaves. If it does act as it suppose to I'll cut it quick and question my selection of the setup.

jarroo · #**62417** Apr 30, 2010 4:53am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jspeakman

Thanks Jaroo - like your thinking - various options allowed with net zero loss in worst case scenario of failed moonshot (the Apollo 13 successful failure scenario - home safe but with considerably less hassle!). Great stuff and thanks again.

J

I hope it helped.

jarroo · #**62422** Apr 30, 2010 5:05am

Quote:

Originally Posted by iForex

DBLHC or Triple Bar, how much pips different allow the double bar low?

That would qualify as a TripleBLHC in my book. 1 or 2 pip difference is not a big factor. I blame demo data feeds for that.

But we want this bullish formation at swing lows. This one is in the middle of everything so it would be a pass.

jarroo · #**62423** Apr 30, 2010 5:08am

Quote:

Originally Posted by supremeChaos

awesome, Sir.

might encounter a buying spree soon.

Maybe its heading down to the bottom of the consolidation area. or at least the 1.6500. we shall see.

jarroo · #**62424** Apr 30, 2010 5:12am

Quote:

Originally Posted by supremeChaos

awesome, Sir.

might encounter a buying spree soon.

Interesting where that buying may start.

jarroo · #**62473** Apr 30, 2010 4:37pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Hi Jarroo, thanks for very detail breakdowns of the trades.

Now looking back at yesterday's GBP/CHF BEOB, on the 1H charts show that price did not respect the break level. Price break the BEOB and go down to 1.6420 and it shoot back up to 1.6485, not even stopping to test the break level. Just as you said price did not behave correctly.

Yes if we could watch the chart during the day, this is great way to monitor our trade and act accordingly. But for those that can only check the chart once or twice daily, this is not applicable. I mostly,...

I'm glad I could help. I agree with sChoas, I don't think you misjudged the FTA on that setup. Its not like you were looking at the 1.6000 or 1.5000 as a target from this setup. lol

You raised an important point. Was this an A+ setup? Maybe . . may not, but a setup for me to take and monitor to see how it breaks. My vague answer to the A+ setup question is because how Price breaks is my final confirmation if its A+, but that's just me.

Since you have limited time and a good eye for where Price is heading once a setup is presented, your concentration should be on being very picky. Picky in the selection of those great A+ setups. Would I throw this one in the 10% bin? Yes, I would, but again that's just me.

Jim

jarroo · #**62474** Apr 30, 2010 4:46pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxeturn

Attachment 467362

Attachment 467363

Attachment 467364

Attachment 467365

And some good observations at that.

Higher Time Frames Rule.

jarroo · #**62475** Apr 30, 2010 4:57pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by TiaForex

It's been a while since I've posted. I trade faster markets these days so there's not as much time to post during the day, but it's nice to see some interesting discussions, particularly the one between StoragePro and Joelcf about psychology (also nice to see the regular three monthly "you guys suck!" interlude. Something to set your watch by...

). When I saw SP and Joel exchange their posts on psychology I was reminded of what, for me, is the essential nature of this thread. A place where traders can feel free to express differing opinions...

Hey Aaron if we get a post like this every now and then, its worth it my friend.

great stuff.

"paucity". Cool word, even though I had to look it up. I going to try and use it this weekend, although the opportunites to use it maybe small in number.

Jim

jarroo · #**62479** Apr 30, 2010 5:50pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by ppfx

joke on the side, i saw some interesting IPBs on yen pairs : GBPJPY looked good a few hours ago but didnt close like i wanted it to, USDJPY has a good IPB imho but it doesnt have a very long nose compared to the previous bar and EURJPY definitely looks the best - extra long nose, just off a BRN 125.00 which is also a ppz area and its on a weekly chart... what do you need more ? ...

*edit: forgot to mention that there is also a PB on the daily chart of EURJPY

have a nice weekend everyone,
ppfx

I agree with your take these IPBs, but the eur/jpy weekly is a BEOB., that looks like a IPB. I'm not say this is a bad thing. But I would like to see that at the Highs, near the 128.00. Like the IPB of a few weeks ago.

jarroo · #**62480** Apr 30, 2010 5:53pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by ppfx

joke on the side, i saw some interesting IPBs on yen pairs : GBPJPY looked good a few hours ago but didnt close like i wanted it to, USDJPY has a good IPB imho but it doesnt have a very long nose compared to the previous bar and EURJPY definitely looks the best - extra long nose, just off a BRN 125.00 which is also a ppz area and its on a weekly chart... what do you need more ? ...

*edit: forgot to mention that there is also a PB on the daily chart of EURJPY

[have a nice weekend everyone,
ppfx

The usd/jpy may not have a long nose, but it is up against the highs. Liked to have seen this at the 95.00.

jarroo · #**62481** Apr 30, 2010 6:05pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

I agree with your take these IPBs, but the eur/jpy weekly is a BEOB., that looks like a IPB. I'm not say this is a bad thing. But I would like to see that at the Highs, near the 128.00. Like the IPB of a few weeks ago.

When I said, "I not saying this is a bad thing." I was referring this to the IPB.

As a BEOB, it is a bad thing because we want our BEOB with the Close lower then the previous bar. Like this one in green.

jarroo · #**62613** May 4, 2010 1:51am

Quote:

Originally Posted by HanSolo

Hey nuclear,

AUDCHF was another one I watched. Did not work out for me neither, since I overrated the profit taking on friday - so I got out at BE. But in my opinion it did what it was supposed to do: broke the BEOB and moved to FTA (see the gap @ April 11th). In hindsight I should have passed it due to traffic. Another reminder for being more picky.

Quote:

Originally Posted by g_j_hook@yah

hi HanSolo, this is a big step to have taken bro

hearing it said and seeing it for yourself from the charts is another thing entirely!nice one

dont underestimate what you said here...

keep it up

jon

I second that g_j_(jon).

Nice one Hans. Overrating the 1st targets (or FTA) is common. The .9900 RN and PPZ level, was an obvious target, forget the gap.

As jon said . . keep at it

Jim

jarroo · #**62615** May 4, 2010 1:55am

Quote:

Originally Posted by joelcf

Oh, I bet you are

Thoses are some BRNs! . . .lol

jarroo · #**62616** May 4, 2010 2:06am

Quote:

Originally Posted by HanSolo

Thanks for your motivating words! The pleasant feeling from being stopped out at BE and knowing WHY it happened greatly exceeds the one from any hit-or-miss high-profitable trade I ever had. It's great to be here.

"Ah-Ha."

jarroo · #**62621** May 4, 2010 2:38am

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxeturn

I've replaced the image in the post with the new improvements as suggested. So it should be ok now, as in just 'ok' right?

Your chart looks great, fxe.

Good examples of Price Action formations. Its important to know what they are and how they look structurally.

The next step is the location and supporting confluences that make them tradable. Mainly the PPZ levels. Maybe show a chart with the same PA but throw in just the PPZ levels.

Its all good fxe, (Thanks sChoas)

jarroo · #**62622** May 4, 2010 2:42am

Quote:

Originally Posted by joelcf

Well played, sir. Well played.

Don't get me wrong . .I like my women voluptuous but there are limits. lol I mean regular RNs are OK too.

jarroo · #**62675** May 4, 2010 5:11pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_wizard

I'm looking for $84.75 for 1/2 and $84.15 for remainder on this trade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_wizard

Just a quick follow up on my post last night and this morning.

1/2 closed for 106 ticks profit.

Stop on remaining 1/2 now set to $85.65 (+16 ticks if hit).

-Tom

Nice trade there wizard (Tom).

I'm not sure if the tick chart you use is reflective of the FxPro chart (I'll assume it is), I can see your reason behind your trade. The 84.00 looked good (84.15 just to make sure).

Just one question. Did the 85.00 level give you any pause or not? That would have been my 1st target in a big way.

Thanks,

Jim

jarroo · #**62678** May 4, 2010 5:43pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nustra

Jaroo,
based on your comment above, is it that this PA's are invalid if not occuring at a PPZ? i mean, will u take one that is not at those levels or have a fib or div. in aggreeance?

at my trading stage now, i kind of look for these setups and i just take most of them. my account is a testament to how unsmart that might be, but if i have to get a PPZ or confluence agreement, i found myself curve fitting; trying different oscillators to get a div. or saying..."well, it was almost at this level, though it didn't touch it to the pip, it was pretty...

Then stop curve fitting Nustra , . . . lol just kidding.

We all have done our fair shair of curve fitting when a good looking PA formation is presented. I know I have.

Fxeturn's chart: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=62605 shows good examples of PA formations but my eye when right to the PPZs levels. Once the PPZ levels were placed, the PA that they were next to or sitting on top of them or running into them made sense.

PA in and of itself are not invalid if they are not supported by a PPZ level, but the decision to take the trade may be invalid. Meaning if your bearish PA is telling you to short, but its right into a BRN PPZ level then your decision to take the trade may be a risky one.

PA is PA. Its only confirmation at a location is when you decide to take the trade.

Weekly and Daily PPZ levels is at the core of a great PA setup. imo

If you view James16 guests videos, you can see its the main focus in his trading.

http://www.james16group.us/Guests/guestmaterial.html

Did I make any sense?

jarroo · #**62679** May 4, 2010 5:44pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_wizard

Hey Jim,

I don't have a level at $85 and I ignore round numbers unless they coincide with a level so, no, I didn't consider it.

-Tom

Interesting. Thanks Tom

jarroo · #**62681** May 4, 2010 5:52pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by nasir.khan

Well every thing including Fib's, TL's, Round Numbers and even PPZ's (the most powaful thing on the chart) could fail time to time.

But when you wait for them to come together in a single zone (confluence) they do hold more then 70%-80% and if you wait for PA at them your chances get to 90%-95%.

Well you can trade PA without PPZ's to, but then you should be looking for something like GOLD weekly PB at end of November-09.

Coming to Curve fitting, Well if you are kind of person who want's to trade the setup no matter what then you will always...

Great post nasir.

jarroo · #**62696** May 5, 2010 2:36am

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

here is a clip from today's webinar where I talked about this bar and the aud/sgd. Again these are just MY views.

http://drop.io/q6ks7v7

Best
Mike

Great webinar, as usually Mike.

The 4 hour Gbp/Usd PB hit its target (in green). Bundy's trend line I sure played a role in that as well.

The location of the PB (Mike W) is a strong PPZ level and your trade was a valid one. (Daily chart PPZ, 1.5150ish)

Mike's video made sense. The "great bar" of the saying "great bars at great locations" was missing. To much strong momentum to the down side for a small PB to overcome. (Although its not invalid yet).

It seems Price is testing this PPZ level right now. Will support now turn into resistance? We shall see.

I do like how Price loves those BRNs. It seems Price just needs a reason to go running towards them. If the PPZ level (1.5150ish) now turns into resistance would sure give Price a reason to go and checkout the 1.5000.

jarroo · #**62699** May 5, 2010 2:59am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Jaroo.

Do you mind if I ask a question about your PPZ?

If I were placing them, I would really have to battle with myself to NOT place an extra one where I drew the red arrows where price met resistance or found support. Is there a reason for leaving that line off?

Maybe this is because we have different brokers, but I did not draw that line on my chart above.

Thanks in advance.

Hey PB. ( gotta like that user name)

Start on the Weekly and Daily charts to locate your PPZ levels. These levels are much stronger then the lower time frame PPZ level, like the 4 Hour. If you have a setup on the 4 hour time frame, then Yes, you shoudld be aware of these levels on that time frame.

We can go over some PPZ level placements if you want.

jarroo · #**62700** May 5, 2010 3:03am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Jaroo.

Maybe this is because we have different brokers, but I did not draw that line on my chart above.

Thanks in advance.

That's the beauty of PPZ levels, the High and Lows of Price usually doesn't change from broker to broker. Sure, Price maybe chopped up differently from broker to broke due to the close .

jarroo · #**62701** May 5, 2010 3:05am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nustra

It does make sense Jaroo, thank you.
also thanks Nas and all for the response, i guess its a stage of a trader's development.

rgds,

Cool . .now can you explain it to me because I don't understand what I said . . .lol just kidding.

jarroo · #**62702** May 5, 2010 3:12am

Price heading down to the 1.5000 (and then present some nice bullish PA, of course) would setup a nice 1-2-3 reversal.

jarroo · #**62707** May 5, 2010 3:44am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Greatly appreciated Jaroo?

Yes, I placed the RED PPZ on the Weekly as in pic 1.
Then I moved down to the daily as in pic 2 but, the weekly PPZ seemed to be just right for the daily and it appeared it did not warrant any extra.

Then, I moved down to H4 and placed the brown lines where I thought resistance had acted as proven support or visa vi.

I must have done something wrong, down the line?

I really want to get this down properley because, if I cannot believe in my own PPZ, it may cause me to have doubts when making an entry or hesitate...

Yeah you don't want to have too many lines. just the lines that hit the High and Lows on the weekly. Also you want to put the BRN like the 1.5000 and 1.5500.

You will notice that these weekly levels standout on the Daily. I like to fine tune them to RNs or RN+ 50 with the understanding that these levels are zone or areas.

You'll notice other levels that stand out on the daily, just note these levels with a line. I will get rid of the lines that are not relative to where the current price is located, just to keep it clean.

jarroo · #**62708** May 5, 2010 3:46am

Quote:

Originally Posted by neutro

You're drawing waaay too many lines.

Check this post out, by Dan Gilbert (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=61058). Though you should be able to draw and see PPZs (important, major ones) easily, you get tangled into minor ones.

That's a good approach as well.

jarroo · #**62709** May 5, 2010 3:56am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Yes, I thought that was the problem.

Maybe if Jarro or anyone stipulates a specific pair and say 1000 pips above and below price, I will draw the PPZ and post each TF as it is completed with reasons as to why I choose those areas. The we can work from there.

This way, I do most of the work, as it should be.

Got to get a hair cut, be back in an hour or so.

Many thanks for the comments, people.

Phew, maybe PB was not a good name to choose, now I have to live up to it. LoL

Quote:

Originally Posted by neutro

I'd say go with GBPJPY. It's a somewhat ranging pair and it's easy to draw PPZs. Draw them from 118 to 163. And don't forget to draw BRN (500p increments, eg 130, 135 etc.). Start with monthly, then go down. You can go down to weekly and daily.

I like it.

A good exercise that would benefit many.

jarroo · #**62711** May 5, 2010 4:10am

Quote:

Originally Posted by ezz

i entered on retrace b4 the bar breaks i guess the reason i didnt w8 for the break is that it was a big size bar (not that big bars always play out as expected ^_-)

ayways my entry was around the blue line @ the chart and i BEed when we reached 68.00

later

Nice one ezz.

Don't forget those previous Highs (in blue), they are playing a role in your trade. I say this because you didn't mention them.

A retrace to those previous highs or the 68.50 wouldn't have been a bad entry either if you think that BEOB is strong enough.

Smart plan ezz.

jarroo · #**62713** May 5, 2010 4:28am

Quote:

Originally Posted by neutro

If people would take the time to carefully read this thread from the beginning, pen and paper and all, business-mind approach, things would be a lot different. This is not to upset newcomers, but they do have to keep in mind that the first thing to do is simple... read the thread as many times (not necessarily all of it, the summaries of seniors is enough to get the trading blood pumping) as it takes.

I admire you Jaroo. And Mike too, and many others, for taking the time to go through all these posts after all this time, answering the same...

Thanks neutro.

Yes, much of what is discussed here (many times) within this big thread. Good advise to read the entire thread with pen and paper in hand. I'm glad to help whenever I can.

jarroo · #**62782** May 5, 2010 2:03pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by HanSolo

After watching Mike's fabulous video seminars in the J16 guest section I tried to find some of those breakout trades he shows. Yesterday there was one on EURGBP when price broke the downside of a nice symmetrical triangle (maybe you want to comment on my analysis, Mike?). Though I did not trade it.

Price showed some weakness/indecision at that lower triangle line in the past view days. On the 1h chart you can see a retrace to the triangle line after the breakout (DBHLC on 4h) and a nice PB signal (long...

I knew Mike would like this one.

Yes Hans, you've captured the basics of a break out pullback with PA.

jarroo · #**62783** May 5, 2010 2:23pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by tehuringa

G'day all....haven't dropped by for a while but nice to see plenty of new faces in this thread....and of course nice to see all those crusty old faces that I've grown to love too

Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie, Oy Oy Oy

jarroo · #**62785** May 5, 2010 2:44pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by neutro

GBPJPY. It's a somewhat ranging pair and it's easy to draw PPZs. Draw them from 118 to 163. And don't forget to draw BRN (500p increments, eg 130, 135 etc.). Start with monthly, then go down. You can go down to weekly and daily.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

GBP/JPY Monthly

I noticed in the description of drawing PPZ in the link, that this person is only drawing them on the Daily. I was under the impression we needed to draw them over several TF.

I will wait till someone comments before I move down to the weekly.

EDIT: I decided that it may be more important to see the actual bars than the line chart as that way, I can see if there are any large PBs which the tail or head is acting as S&R. I also decided it is probably better to round these off to the nearest round number.

Let's remember the exercise on the Gbp/Jpy Monthly . . draw them from 118 to 163.

The interesting thing about the Monthly is that you could draw a line from every High and Low and they would supply a nice PPZ level on the lower time frames. Even the Yearly High and Low. So a PPZ level on the Monthly is even more powerful. No surprise, they tend to be around the BRNs.
(I think that Mike guy is on to something. lol)

jarroo · #**62786** May 5, 2010 2:50pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by NosferatuMan

Time to adjust stops.

PS: entry on the break and initial stop above the bar. Stop moved to BE.

Very nice. How pretty is that . . .

jarroo · #**62788** May 5, 2010 3:09pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Well, ehh...I think I will have to clear the weekly chart and reboot my mind.

I will be back.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

Let's remember the exercise on the Gbp/Jpy Monthly . . draw them from 118 to 163.

The interesting thing about the Monthly is that you could draw a line from every High and Low and they would supply a nice PPZ level on the lower time frames. Even the Yearly High and Low. So a PPZ level on the Monthly is even more powerful. No surprise, they tend to be around the BRNs.
(I think that Mike guy is on to something. lol)

Leaving the Monthly PPZ levels, we can see that they really standout on the weekly. Some others standout in area of consolidation, like the 136. and 130.

jarroo · #**62791** May 5, 2010 3:27pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

Leaving the Monthly PPZ levels, we can see that they really standout on the weekly. Some others standout in area of consolidation, like the 136. and 130.

On that the Daily, we can see the Monthly/Weekly PPZ levels really stand out as Price consolidates around these levels. There maybe some levels that stand out on the Daily to add addtional lines. PPZ levels can be defined as where Resistance now turns into Support and Support now turns into Resistance.

jarroo · #**62807** May 5, 2010 4:44pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by (Yaniv)

Hey Jarroo,

Is it possible for you to mark the MAJOR weekly PPZ from the start of 2010 with regards to the USDCHF chart?

I'm asking cause price was in heavy consolidation and it's kinda hard (for me) to spot those PPZ levels.

thx,
Yaniv

Sure Yania.

PPZ levels can usually be found at the top and bottom of these areas of heavy consolidation.
These are the ones I found that standout on the Weekly and Daily. There may be others.

jarroo · #**62809** May 5, 2010 4:52pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dan Gilbert

Jarroo, are you still in your weekly bullish pin bar?

Sadly no. I rode that 2nd half for a long time. I got out at the 1.0810. I should have added on the 1.0500. It was a fun little trade.

jarroo · #**62810** May 5, 2010 4:58pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by tehuringa

Hey Mikey and Jarroo.....I missed you guys

Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie, Oy Oy Oy

jarroo · #**62814** May 5, 2010 5:11pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by (Yaniv)

Hey Jarroo,

Thanks for the replay, I appreciate it.

I don't really know your trading style, do you take interday trades of those PPZ (monthly, weekly, daily).

if not, what TF do you usually trade ?

thx,
Yaniv

Mainly the Weekly, Daily and 4 Hour. Also the 8 Hour and 12 Hour but I don't post many of those here. I look at the Hourly mainly for how Price is behaving around setups. When I do take an intraday trade, the Weekly and Daily PPZ levels are totally involved.

jarroo · #**62817** May 5, 2010 5:26pm

Nice Big PB on the 4 Hour Cad . . . Target Hit. Any questions?

jarroo · #**62818** May 5, 2010 5:29pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarroo

Nice Big PB on the 4 Hour Cad . . . Target Hit. Any questions?

Your answers are here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15568

jarroo · #**62868** May 6, 2010 1:38am

Quote:

Originally Posted by neutro

50 fib, trendline and PPZ. That's gotta be worth some bucks. Pullback to the trendline would have been a real deal.

Welcome to the land of Rac-man. Classic.

Also noticed that the BEOB fullfilled itself by hitting its PPZ target.

jarroo · #**62869** May 6, 2010 2:28am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Atc

I would like any comments on how I am using fibs. with J16....was watching this pair for the past months....I know that the fib lines may not be drawn exactly how others do it and I may be curve fitting to others opinions but this is how I was taught to draw them....but need any feedback on what you may think if you have the time.

In my past experience with other markets ...

Draw from low to high look for pull backs to 61.8% and/or 50% in trending markets and enter on touch and PA prior to touching ....also with RN's or BRN in consideration....

Here's some thoughts Atc.

Fib levels by themselves (imo) will not serve you well unless they are confluencing with a PPZ level and/or BRN. The 1.0500 (BRN) was confluencing great with the very noticable PPZ level (no surprise) at the 1.0500. which was also at a 50% retracement level. Very nice, strong strong level.

The 61.8 fib level had an "OK" PPZ level lining up with it. But it wasn't standing out like the 50% ret.

The 1st blue formation is not a PB but a neutral or indecision bar. Still tradable, but a formation like a PB will give a direction like a "bearish" PB or "bullish" PB.

If you took neutral bar and the DBLHC, our targets would be the previous bar Highs and/or Lows . . . or both, a PPZ level.

(Yeah I know, the DBLHC is a little shaky at best . .lol)

Jim

jarroo · #**62871** May 6, 2010 2:41am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

GBP/JPY

Reasonable PB off the 38.2 & of the 365 EMA with daily TL as confluence.

Too close to the 141 area for me to jump in with 9 pips spread.

Is there a PPZ level there too, PB?

jarroo · #**62872** May 6, 2010 2:49am

Looks like the Gbp/Usd found a reason to go for the 1.5000.

Took the Hourly IB, DIBS style. Not in the free trade just yet though. lol

jarroo · #**62875** May 6, 2010 3:07am

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Hi Jarroo, IMHO 1.4988 looks better...???

Really. lol How so? Oops I thought that was a different smiley face (

)

I was thinking more the 1.5015-20.

jarroo · #**62876** May 6, 2010 3:13am

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pinbar

Ehem.......Thank you Jarroo for that very gentle Cattle Prod!

Yes, I missed the 142 PPZ.

Very nice Pb.

PBs at a retracement level are very tradable, but we like the ret level at a swing high or low.

As a continuation PB or a very shallow swing High PB like yours, we want many confluences supporting them. And the main one is a strong PPZ level.

jarroo · #**62879** May 6, 2010 3:27am

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Haha I am just messing with you. I guess you are looking at the top of the ppz zone and I am looking at the bottom of the zone. I prefer it cut through 1.5 level and bounce back hard. Anyways let see how it plays out, price is near the target now

Yes sir. Penty of momentum to do just that, cut through the 1.5.

I think I hear a ton of alerts going off from Mike's computer coming through the thread. lol

jarroo · #**62882** May 6, 2010 3:33am

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

lol

jarroo · #**62884** May 6, 2010 3:49am

Quote:

Originally Posted by esbatu

Hey Jarroo, tell Mike to stop laughing on the floor or he might miss the BRN :P

Yeah lol.

Mike will be waiting for a more distinct or bold looking PA at that level. And so will I.

jarroo · #**62887** May 6, 2010 5:15am

Quote:

Originally Posted by benem

Hallo Jarroo....i have a question for you and even all the senior members that want to answer me:

Do you consider mainly BRN taking the Gbp/Usd for example 1.50-1.55-1.60 and so on every 500 pips or you give the same weight even to round number every 100 pips 1.50-1.51-1.52 and so on.

thanks as always

Luca

We know Mike gives a lot of weight to BRNs and well he should, because you'll see it all the time that strong PPZ levels will develop around these BRNs.

Then you'll have others that well ignore BRNs or RNs unless they are confluencing with a strong PPZ level or other confluencing levels. But mainly its PPZ level that is the focus.

If a very obvious and strong PPZ level is at the 138.50 and not at the 140.00. I'll go with the 138.50 but I will not ignore the 140.00.

Its the obvious looking PPZ level that I look for. If they line up with a RN great, even better, but if they don't I will take a PA setup if that level supports it.

jarroo · #**62890** May 6, 2010 5:47am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeurre

Hi, Guys, I got this nice setup, two big enough size of pinbars, retrace to 61 fib, and BRN 1.4000, downtrend to short ( with trend ). maybe no ppz? but, some people trade PA setup only to make money, so, I take this as good setup.

jeurre . . .my friend. check your Weekly and Daily time frames for PPZ levels.

There is a nice one right at the 1.3925ish level. Price is testing it right now. The PBs are good. But I would wait for them to break for an entry.

If you're going to trade on the 4 hour, make sure you know where the higher time frame PPZ levels are located. it makes life a lot easier.

Jim

jarroo · #**62894** May 6, 2010 6:02am

Quote:

Originally Posted by extraneo

in accordance with the rules of Jim, the entry is only possible if the daily candle closed lower than the previous candle;
in this case there twezeer top, pinbar and lower close with the second candle.
this is right?

Could you say that one more time in a different way? (sorry)

jarroo · #**62896** May 6, 2010 6:13am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeurre

yeah, jarroo, my twin brother, hahaha. (kiding)

by looking into line chart of daily, there is an obvious one, I didn't pay attention to it. thanks for your suggestion.

the question bothers me is this. if looking into the first pin bar, nice setup too. but, the break of that pin lead to a reverse far before its first trouble area unless look to the left, but, the space in between is good enough to nullify the impact from left leg, may I?

to be honest, the daily price action makes me doult about the validity of the H4 pinbars.

Price is really testing that level. Price breaking the 1st PB than reversing shows a lot of strength in the up trend. Above the PPZ level would be my stop loss placement. The 2nd PB may have a chance.

Yes, the Daily is showing the uptrend is strong. Some bullish PA at this level may show a good sign that the uptrend will continue.

jarroo · #**62898** May 6, 2010 6:17am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeurre

I have this trade, high burn rate, but, this one delivers as expected, half position closed at the FTA, the rest is BE

Hesitated to scale in upon retrace to the minor (short line) support. but, good enough to keep existing position and see if could push up to the top of the range

Nice entry. If that PB breaks it'll be a good confirmation that we will be moving up. If it doesn't, more down movement is very possible.

jarroo · #**62899** May 6, 2010 6:21am

Quote:

Originally Posted by extraneo

excuse but I speak English badly

I wanted to say:
according to the rules of jim
1) to attend the closing of the candle daily;
2) if this candle daily closes lower of the previous one, would have:

tweezer top, with pinbar that it closes under of the previous one

he would be a good ones setup?

If that Daily closes as a PB with a double top and the close is lower then the PPZ level then yes this would be a good PA setup to enter.

jarroo · #**62903** May 6, 2010 6:26am

Quote:

Originally Posted by s005606

Hi Jarroo, how are u?
Kindly pls allow me to jump in and ask a question. Would the failure of the 1st pin affect your decision in taking the 2nd pin? Coz considering both pins are at around the similar position, with similar length and they are so close (in time) to each other.

Or you would judge them individually? Thanks for ur comment in advance!

No, not really. The failure of the 1st PB basically tells me something that we already know.: The uptrend is strong. With the 2nd PB, it has potential. There is a real battle going on at this level. I may just wait until the dust settles and see what deveolps.

jarroo · #**62905** May 6, 2010 6:32am

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeurre

as long as the daily closes as a pinbar, we will have good chance to expect something.

Yes it could tell us many things. If the PB breaks hard the current long term down trend could continue. If it doesn't break or hits a short term target or FTA, then the up tend could continue.

jarroo · #**62906** May 6, 2010 6:34am

Alright gang . . gotta go.

(Man . . .I love this stuff)

Later.

Jim

jarroo · #**62958** May 6, 2010 2:46pm

What the hell are you guys doing in here. lol

jarroo · #**62959** May 6, 2010 2:49pm

Holy Sh*T

jarroo · #**62966** May 6, 2010 2:53pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

haha wow Jim wait till you see my live video you can hear my reaction. It all happened while I was taping, going to render it now.

I finally got mine

gotta love this volatility

Mike

I gotta hear that lollll

jarroo · #**62968** May 6, 2010 2:54pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by bundyraider

Mike and Jaroo.

Do you get the feeling this is one of those Peter Crowns moments beginning here?

Yeah lol

jarroo · #**62970** May 6, 2010 3:06pm

Any one trading the NFP tomorrow?

jarroo · #**62974** May 6, 2010 3:10pm

Isn't it reassuring that Price Action the J16 way, (PA at swing highs, etc.) showed the way on many pairs.

jarroo · #**62986** May 6, 2010 3:18pm

For some reason . . I think Rac had something to do with this . . .
Ka Boom! comes to mind.

jarroo · #**62992** May 6, 2010 3:26pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

Actually technicals were still in place on plenty of things. If you just start shorting or long when you see large bars then I agree. My trade was very sound and I have made similar plays year after year. Just like if you were short usd/jpy from the DBHLC, did you know this would happen. HELL no! But if it does and your in then you ride the train.

many pairs like that . .

jarroo · #**62994** May 6, 2010 3:27pm

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbqb11

He farted

And yet he still sits in the cave anyways. lol