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  #66016  
Old Jun 11, 2010 8:17am
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Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Very nice ghous.

I want to take that 2nd chart, enlarge it, frame it and put on my wall.

It's a work of art.
You can go ahead and do that provided you mention who the artist is in a frame much bigger than the ones you use to frame the chart.

...
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  #66018  
Old Jun 11, 2010 8:39am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
As well as it reacting to Jims PPZ
on the 4H there was the 150 EMA ....I don't know how much weight this had?

And also I drew a a fib although not at the extreme low ....but hit the 50% FIB Long...where it seemed to bounce

These 3 factors seemed to be confluence for the bounce to go higher..at least for a small period of time

Let's watch ...However the pressure is still down IMO
Hey Atc,

IMHO I find the setup pretty good.

An argument can still be made up though. price in the last week or so has lost quite a bit of it's bearish steam but given that the BEOB was a good sized one and off a good res zone, I feel it was worth a shot at least to the first trouble area, which it is just about kissing as I type.

g.
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  #66020  
Old Jun 11, 2010 8:52am
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Originally Posted by Pinbar View Post
Ghous

What EMA are you using on that chart
Ignore em'

I am using them for a system of my own,

FYI they are the 50 ema and the 21 ema.


(I am genuinely interested in helping new folks get the basic hang of the J16 core stuff and not get involved in "a system, it's dynamics, entry and exit methods" before getting the basics straight.)

g.
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  #66036  
Old Jun 11, 2010 10:41am
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Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Looking at the weekly bar now. Possible bullish PB, but still has several hours left to bar close to confirm it. Weekly low at strong PPZ, also with a confluence of a bullish TL that has been respected several times as marked with circles, and the bars marked with arrows. However, a huge bullish PB (marked with hand sign) has failed terribly before even at swing low, which is why I'm posting this, to ask how anyone else sees this. The failed PB is probably due to the heavy bearish momentum from July 2008, but the recent downtrend is not as strong,...
Chart.

(PA in the gray boxes shows how the PA bar "should" have looked like)
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  #66038  
Old Jun 11, 2010 11:05am
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Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Ghous...let me start off by saying for some reason I am not good with the weeklies...my highest profitable trades have come from the 4H and the dailies( I can't figure this out)...so in effect I look at the weeklies for more direction/trend, PPZ's, confluences for the 4H and dailies that I trade. Maybe someday I will overcome this, but I am stumped.

With that said I am posting a daily of A/C to show that I am looking for a "possible" short opportunity at the 61.8, .8800 level with some confirmation with PA
Of course relevant PA will show the way...it has been doing so since Pring's time (in fact since way before that).
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  #66047  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:17pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
That long wick bearish bar - interesting.

On the shorter time frames you often see a chain of relatively long bearish bars, where price takes a bit of a dive over a few minutes.

Then price reverses on itself and creates a long wick.
Like price has been sliding down a pole and scrambled back a way.

The pole is still slipperly and despite its scramble to ascend, without any firm footholds (resistance levels) it carries on sliding......
Good observation,

I have in fact noticed that many times a loooong wick alone has huge reversal potential, not talking about a pin bar here, just a bearish/bullish bar with a very long nose stretching at one end.

g.
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Last edited by ghous, Jun 11, 2010 3:11pm
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  #66049  
Old Jun 11, 2010 2:19pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
lol once framed, I would have Mike sign the lower left corner . . mbqb11. lol

Serious though, its a great post . .fasle breaks . . testing the break . . great stuff. This one is definietly going in the (Ghous IPB folder).



If any real credit has to be given to the work it can not be for Mike alone, you are right up there Jarroo and so are several others here at the thread. I would be way down. lol



g.
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  #66058  
Old Jun 11, 2010 3:32pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
This is why this thread is what it is.

BECAUSE OF PEOPLE LIKE THIS.

ghous gets it. ghous understands what goes out comes back.

ghous is just one of many here that "gets it" and its why im proud of what this thread has become.

the trading is secondary.

5 year birthday coming up on the 17th.

unreal.

Jim
Woohooo!!! that's 1826 days and 6 hours of unprecedented giving and taking.

Geez...that calls for...errr....ummm...something BIG!
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  #66061  
Old Jun 11, 2010 3:42pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hookers for everyone! . . wait . .that may not be appropriate.
I can't believe I googled that!
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  #66067  
Old Jun 11, 2010 4:03pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by james16 View Post
nothing could make me happier than if Merlin stopped by around the time i started it on the 17th.

that would be my only wish.

i dont know how to make that happen.

Jim
Wow! that would be cool

Does he even stop by FF these days, haven''t seen a post from him in ages.

g.
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  #66068  
Old Jun 11, 2010 4:05pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan-FX View Post
Interesting how trendlines can vary so much, for me price was on the other side so not a supporting factor. Are there any rule of thumbs for drawing TLs or is it just an art and seeing how price reacts or respects it?

Thanks and have a good weekend
This is one reason why I generally refrain from using them extensively in my analysis, you miss the end of a single wick by a millimeter and it turns out you miss an entire supp/res zone several bars later. It all happens because a trend line get's drawn at an angle.

There ar no specific rules of drawing trend lines either. Some prefer them drawn from the bar closes/line chart others use bar highs and lows...


g.
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  #66085  
Old Jun 12, 2010 12:33am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
This is not a typical question for this thread but it is an interesting area (to me anyway)

Often I see price forming arches - take spot silver, the 4H chart for palladium PAU0.sb - yes palladium.

These aren't the first I've come across.
This topic may be cover elsewhere.
Technical analysis of the sort I am aware of does not fit but these surely must represent an opportunity if a method is available/can be devised.
Yes you too can successfully trade palladium!

I see that when price has reached the top of an arch it consolidates and "grows hair"...
Me likes it!

I abso-flogging-lutely love it when people talk about price like Six gun here.



g.
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  #66086  
Old Jun 12, 2010 12:53am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
Thanks for clearing it up Ghous. What you've drawn are really clear-cut and obvious PA but what about some little PBs at extreme points that actually reversed trends? Some of this little PBs can be found even at the beginning of major trends. I'm not on a computer with MT4 right now but those little PBs can be found in some charts. Were they not meant to be traded or is there a way to interpret them when there is no obvious PA around? What attracted me to little PBs is actually the low risk entry because a full bar loss is less hurting than a PB...
When little Pbs reverse trends they I bet are always located at a brilliant location.

Let me go over this a bit.

A j16 setup for us constitutes 2 elements.

1) PA Bar (shape etc)

2) Location (space, confluence etc)

Can a PA bar with full marks to it still create a move if the location department is inadequate? yes it can.

Can a good location with full marks to it still make a move if the bar department is inadequate? yes it can. hell that's what jarroo does day in and day out. Rac-man trades only off a good location...take that.

Can a PA bar with good marks to it still create a move if the location department is also strong enough. SURE it can!

Do you see the difference between the first 2 and the third situation?

What should interest a person new at this is that the 3rd situation is often the easiest to spot, enter into and manage well. With experience and enough chart time you are guaranteed to reach a point where you can then attempt a "shoddy" setup and not loose. Until that time you must feed your confidence and skill with the moves you are absolutely certain you will not loose on, at your stage this can only be true with the third situation.

Don't worry about a wide stop vs a smaller one. At this stage there's something more important than making money, it's learning. And it is that much important for making money in the long term.

g.
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  #66091  
Old Jun 12, 2010 4:08am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nwo-trader View Post
Any thoughts on this weekly pinbar guys? Is it too small?

Firstly yes it is way too small, even if you don't bother comparing it with the entire move down, consider comparing it with the last 2 bearish bars only.

Such bars seem to appear at a potential swing low, and obviously price can't give off a bar like that over a period of 5 trading days without a ppz or a round number so often ppl will just throw in a round number/ppz and then considering it a swing low pin bar with huge space, they find it easy for them to pull the trigger.

I have said it before and I am going to say it again, the general flow of momentum is equally important.

If a 3 year trend has to reverse it has to be off a bar that comes in 3 years.

g.
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  #66096  
Old Jun 12, 2010 5:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxeturn View Post
...

With Eur/Chf you never know...
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  #66102  
Old Jun 12, 2010 10:27am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grousman View Post
Hi all, been a while since posting, actually got a day job so kind of busy....
Long time sir...

I agree the Eur/Gbp is in for a quick shot

g.
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  #66103  
Old Jun 12, 2010 10:29am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
the 17th is my birthday too . I already feel so honored being born on the same day, it will be a double party for sure.

I wish I could spend more time on this thread and to be more active but my day job it keeps me busy.

But i always check what the old fellas are doing.

wish you all the best guys!!!!
Wow...

I stopped by the planet earth on the 17th as well, only that is was the month of January though lol

Seriously I feel for you Trig!

g.
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  #66106  
Old Jun 12, 2010 10:54am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
#3 . . . . Rules!
Sure does.
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  #66109  
Old Jun 12, 2010 11:04am
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Originally Posted by triger88990 View Post
Wow....... 17th it seems to be a lucky number at least around this place, nice to hear that from you, one of my brothers "land" on earth on January too, but it was on 24th.

who knows how many lurkers may be on the lucky number 17th that we don't even know.

ps: the 17th january is now on my notebook, had to give some compliments on that day

all the best!
you might want to drop in for a drink or 2 as well

(we don't drink beer...chilled coke at your service.)
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  #66148  
Old Jun 13, 2010 10:36am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
Ghous or others who take IPB's

Looking back---
Would you consider this a good IPB
even though it closed above 1.06 level?

it appears that it had a good location with confluences
with dominant trend,365ma, 61.8 fib

Thx
Confluence laden zone for sure, but too much choppiness for my liking. Also the IPB had more of an indecision bar type look with that shorter wick extending to the upside more than I would have liked.

Worked out fine but an easy pass for me.

g.
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  #66149  
Old Jun 13, 2010 10:40am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
Ghous put a link to his piece on ipb's
I skim read it but wanted to do a proper read.
Now I can't find it now.
Does anyone have the link please?
This should get you started.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=52647

g.
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  #66219  
Old Jun 14, 2010 4:28am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Real nice trade here.
Jiggy!!!
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  #66229  
Old Jun 14, 2010 4:59am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigsaw View Post
Nice levels, it's in the hands of the Gods now



Expect a reaction at the 10.300 + TL Confluence though ?

Attachment 490439



Why hello there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4G1L...next=1&index=1
...
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  #66459  
Old Jun 16, 2010 8:45am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddinnov View Post
I took one that I think I shouldn't have and now I think I know why:

Silver BUOB/DBLHC - would be much better at a swing low and the target 18.85 is a strong resistance that it might not even reach..

now I just need to spot those things before I jump in
Understanding your "Strike zone" is important.

The first thing that would strike me upon the first glimpse of the silver daily chart is the choppiness price has gone through in the past month or so.

What is always more important than the shape of the bar is a trade setup's over all location. When located in traffic the validity or let's say the predictability of a trade setup can get sidelined by this tussle between the buyers and the sellers.

During the early days it does often happen that a PA bar jumps out at you before the preceding price action or the overall location of the bar itself. (And I am not talking about pulling down fibs from the recent swings) You need to understand this and at all times refrain from choosing a particular bar in a shoddy location by virtue of it's length or shape alone.

(On this occasion even the shape of you BUOB/DBLHC was inadequate, notice how the close failed to surpass immediate traffic to the left...can't emphasize enough how important that is for a plus factor)

g.
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  #66460  
Old Jun 16, 2010 8:46am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by six gun View Post
ddinnov - I am not sure price always follows the rules with gold and especially silver.
For me price is due to come down, which it just did.
Sheesh! that ain't true.

That went down like a poisonous arrow piercing my heart. lol

g.
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  #66535  
Old Jun 16, 2010 11:30pm
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Did a bit of research on my part and what I found out will just flat out drop james' jaw here...

here's a chart displaying our growth along with avatars of some of the angels that made it all possible.

This is your dream come true Jim.

(Used the first post on every June 17th my time to calculate this)

wanted to use some linear regression techniques to project growth over the next few years but that little dot from this year is almost looking like an error...lol



Happy Birthday J16 Chart Thread!!!!
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  #66538  
Old Jun 16, 2010 11:37pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
That's cool ghous. Don't fight the trend.
...
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  #66564  
Old Jun 17, 2010 1:51am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey ghous.

A lot of little IPBs tonight. Poor in size but interesting to watch them move as they do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
Hey ghous. This Bearish IPB's nose just wasn't long enough, (darn it). Trust me, I was looking for a feed that had a longer nose. lol

Dropped right at the close, 50 pips with no draw down. (ok maybe 2 pips)
I am watching them as well, none of them were obviously A+ shapewise but given their locations certainly worth watching!

g.
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  #66566  
Old Jun 17, 2010 2:00am
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jarroo View Post
I haven't see many IPBs (good ones) as of late.

I think the Big Dogs have been studying your posts on IPBs and messing with them. lol
Here's one that's pretty close,

It sort of happens with IPBs...they tend to come by in packages of a dozen or so and then are no where to be found for some time. lol.

g.
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  #66742  
Old Jun 18, 2010 11:13pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atc View Post
I thought earlier in the week we were watching this weekly. It might have been Pinbar who sighted it ...I forgot...well anyways...here's the results!
BUOB worked nicely.

Thx J16
Whoot! Someone's having a great time!
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  #66743  
Old Jun 18, 2010 11:16pm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxdrive View Post
I addition to the last post would the following be a 3 day pin bar and is it a valid J16 PA setup?

Attachment 493678
If it's off something good enough...then it sure is!

g.
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