| |
Behind Price-Orderflow
 | | | 
Aug 27, 2009 9:25am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Hey Steve, looks like this could be an interesting thread! (put your son back on immediately!!  )
I'd have to question your theory on the motives of the players though....
1st chart Eur/Usd, that was a reaction to news wasn't it? Would sellers really be expecting buyers to be loading up at that consolidation, wouldn't they wait for a breakout above those highs for potentially the next leg up?
2nd chart, I don't trade GBP/AUD and can't find a chart for it right now, useless brokers charts!
3rd chart Cable, why would sellers be loading up in an uptrend, isn't the spike up more likely to be buyers trading the breakout above those previous highs rather than a short squeeze?
Edit: And the 4th chart EUR/USD, same thing, a news spike.
None of it really looks like strategic manipulation to me, it looks like normal movement to be honest.
Last edited Aug 27, 2009 9:59am
| 
Aug 27, 2009 9:48am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by birdt I'm about done with 'the market is random because I can't profit from it' argument. | lol
I'm not arguing the fact that the market is manipulated by those who can, I would if I could, but the charts posted aren't the best examples in my opinion. | 
Aug 27, 2009 10:19am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by birdt I'm not sure that skfx has explicitly stated that these moves are engineered by insiders, although he might yet, but do these moves need to be manipulated for the opportunities to exist?... | Oh right, I thought he was referring to why players strategically push price in a particular direction (ie " they squeeze sellers hard...real hard" was one of the captions), I just assumed by ' they' he meant players intentionally running stops after enticing traders into a trade in the opposite direction. But if we're talking about business as normal then sure, likely areas for stops are there for all to see (or apparently not if this is a revelation to some!), and momentum gathers when there's a cascade of them, I agree. | 
Aug 27, 2009 11:45am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx if i gave the best away then i wouldn't being doing myself any favours,no?
i just gave a little for those who like reading between the lines.
remember about the hump busting i did,i believe everyone should do a little
you deserve everything given when you sit back and realise you spent thousands of hours sitting alone in a dark room till 4am in the morning trying to work the whole riddle out while all your mates where out getting on it lol. |
Whenever I say that, everyone calls me tight, lol!
I'm with you bud, besides which I think there's often more value, and a proud feeling of achievement, in discovering some things for oneself (with maybe a gentle push in the right diection) instead of being handed it all on a plate!
Good job, have one of these, they're free  | 
Aug 28, 2009 2:56am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx For the most bizarre reason traders on these boards continue to go OVER and OVER and OVER the same @#!* 100's of times......they continue to ask questions and to do the same things continually walking around bumping into each other,it drives me insane. | lol, so true!  | 
Aug 28, 2009 6:34am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B The part I am grappling with in regards to reading the orderflow is this: I can only see the best 5 bids and offers in the orderbook and price seems to move so fast (and available liquidity changes) that it is hard to follow (at this point anyways) I know I am searching in the right place though. | Maybe try looking not just at your brokers orderbook but at the market and it's players (the people behind the orders), the reasons why they trade where they trade, their motives, and their objectives, as well as in context of the herds vulnerabilities.
That may sound cryptic but when you think about it it's actually very clear. | 
Aug 28, 2009 6:50am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B I don't watch my brokers book, but I do watch the CME Globex book. Thats the only one that really matters. I understand that the banks move the market. Speculators are just a tiny little portion. | Speculators in the most part are the fodder simply because of their predictability, I think most of them concentrate too much on the game and not enough on the players, a bit like goose's rock paper scissors analogy article which he posted. | 
Aug 28, 2009 7:16am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro Order Flow is what moves the market.... Once Order Flow is understood, you can exploit it. | I think you slightly miss the essence of the thread, it's about what's behind order flow as opposed to order flow itself, and how the reasoning behind the order flow of the masses can be exploitable predictability for the few.
All it takes is a bit of lateral thinking. | 
Aug 28, 2009 7:31am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro Hi Pip -
Read that stuff I pointed the thread at. It addresses this precisely. |
Hey SP
Yep you're right, I should have read it first, I just assumed it was the same old same old, my bad I'll take a look, thanks. | 
Aug 28, 2009 11:10am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success. | It's simple, don't believe a word he says if you don't want to.
His thread is designed to provoke people to think for themselves, be creative, look at the market and your trading from another angle, all he's doing is pointing you in the right direction. You don't need proof that the OP is profitable or even trades to be able to do that.
The wisdom and insight should be in the words you read not in how successful the author is, think and evaluate for yourself! If it makes sense then it doesn't matter a jot what the author is or isn't.
Sheeesh, what's next, " post your live trades", geez  | 
Aug 28, 2009 11:24am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx
Scotty,you don't need the charts believe me.
| Ok, now I'm confused.
Not being funny but I don't see how you can do it without charts. We don't have access to factual order flow information for an OTC like forex, price action is helpful but not stand-alone, volume we don't know (accurately enough), the only way I can think of is to identify levels where orders are likely to be (similar to the ideas in the charts you posted), and predict when/where the herd will enter/exit and more importantly in this context when they will bail.
This is freely available information on any chart, if we as insignificant retail traders know it then you can be sure players know it and they will exploit it when it suits them, for the momentum if nothing else, and what better ally to have than market movers! Soros had the Bundesbank behind him when he performed his coup in '92, a slightly different scale I know but we've got an ally too.
Steve, if know of a way to do this without charts then you must be further out of that box than I am  | 
Aug 28, 2009 11:33am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek You could have stopped there as that too is a completely fair assessment. | I could, but I like a rant just as much as the next guy, and besides it's Friday and we've got another stupid bank holiday on Monday!  | 
Aug 28, 2009 2:49pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek How else would a retail trader go about it? | Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.
You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!
How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning  | 
Aug 28, 2009 3:49pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan Lol, quote of the day.
Have a good weekend Pip. | You too, it's a long one so I guess they'll be some diy or gardening involved somewhere!
The question is should I use a roller or a brush.....  | 
Aug 28, 2009 6:59pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro No - we are gonna graduate to "show me your statements!" | Hey great, I love this part
Your $/Cad trade, break below support around 1.0830 and it falls as traders sell and longs bail, yep. Where's the benefit of any potential order flow knowledge in that trade though? Don't get me wrong it was a useful little trade, very nice but no specialist knowledge or analysis required.
How about a long at 1.0800 for ~30 pips, then back long again at 1.0821 for ~50 pips, all in hindsight and I didn't take any of them but there are some obvious trades on that chart.
This is what gets me, simple no-brainer trades with very little risk just asking to be traded yet there's like a thousand pages on one convoluted strategy which at the end of the day probably doesn't have any better win:lose or risk:reward! | 
Aug 28, 2009 7:16pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo Ive obviously not been blessed enough to be able to see the easy or simple part of learning how to trade profitably. Once you know how, the process of continuing to do the same thing may be easy, but I dont have the luxury of being able to say if it will or not(be easy) for certain.
At the end of the day, I want to be able to trade on a real world cause and effect that I am 80%+ sure will play out my way.... That Cannot (IMO) be done by pattern spotting.
By using a chart only you are following the past, trying to profit is... |
Great thanks Leon, hope you are too
Ok my remark was probably a bit scathing, I guess it's the frustration of seeing so many people complicate what I honestly believe is essentially an easy process.
You're looking for a reason why price should go to x.xxxx (" need a solid reason to beleive that someone out their comanding alot of money has a price in mind and an agenda") which is the essence of this thread I suppose, it's certainly a more sensible approach than blindly trading a line or indicator which might not actually mean very much in reality. I'm still not sure how that could be done without the visual of participants behavior presented neatly on a chart though. I think you've also got to consider what the market-movers are looking at, do they watch chart levels for entries and exits such as breakouts, retracements, even moving averages, they all seem to be popular among some of the top analysts so I think they should be included in our analysis too. | 
Aug 28, 2009 7:32pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by StoragePro Fair question - and rather than rewriting the book, read those Osler papers on order flow. You'll see exactly why tht trade worked - and more importantly, why. It is cool and simple. | That's my Bank Holiday homework for sure, I've got renewed interest in this now! | 
Aug 28, 2009 7:42pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan F1 from Spa this weekend | How the other half live!
(you're right there is no paint, it's a dry run for the real thing, a bit like demo painting lol)
-
Last edited Aug 29, 2009 6:19am
| 
Aug 29, 2009 7:23am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan I respectfully disagree.
There is nothing to crack. There is no 'hidden secret'. It's traders trading, businesses transferring, multinationals hedging etc etc. It's not space invaders, it's a function of international business and aproaching it with a view or perspective that there's a super secret cabal of super traders will ultimatley frustrate you as it doesn't exist. |
I agree that there's no hidden or deep dark secret (as far as I know!) but there are aspects of trading which joe average trader seems to be oblivious to such as where orders are likely to be placed, and why. A lot of traders seem to analyse the market based on indicators, s/r levels, retracements etc etc without actually thinking what's behind the analysis. In my opinion that leaves out a big chunk of information and is a major disadvantage.
As well as the participants you mentioned there are what I'd call 'strategic players' who are well aware of market participants herd behaviour and they will manipulate the market for their own benefit (ie stop-running, candle painting etc) at the expense of the majority. Sometimes their plays which exploit the herd can be obvious even to traders like us who have limited information, and if we can see them coming we can maybe ride in the slipstream.
What's the saying, " if you don't know who the patsy is then it's probably you" (I don't mean 'you' as in you by the way!  ) | 
Aug 29, 2009 7:59am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan Hi Pip, in my mind, i covered those within the 'traders' group - those looking to profit from the market, as opposed to those using the market as an aspect of their wider business. | Yep I saw you'd lumped them together, I seperated them out for emphasis, sorry I didn't mean it to sound like you didn't know they existed but it's amazing the number of people who don't and think stop-hunting refers to some devious broker trick to get their money!
The discussion on order flow seems to be drying up in this thread, maybe there's less to be said about it than some people originally thought! | 
Aug 29, 2009 8:09am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx pip,there is a good reason for that. | Oh boy, I'm really putting my foot in it today, that comment wasn't directed at you or anyone specific really
.....but now you come to mention it, what is the reason?
Great sport analogies by the way, I loved the F1 speed-watcher one, brilliant! | 
Aug 29, 2009 9:45am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx You run the risk of that inefficiency becoming efficient again.
You lose the edge.The players(market participants) 'may' then change operations to close it up.I think personally it's a bit rich,i mean at the end of the day,operators NEED to manage things a certain way to get business done,but you just never know,if enough traders know and these operators find that it's cutting into them,then a change could be made in the way they operate. |
Agreed, and even though the possibility of losing an edge by sharing it with the masses may be slim it's still a posibility. I'm superstitious when it come to sharing a strategy, plus I'm suspicious of giving away my hard (and costly!) work and then seeing it for sale on ebay next week for $99.99, lol
I'll try not to clutter up your thread any more than I have done!
Have a nice weekend, one and all! | 
Aug 30, 2009 3:36am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by fxtrader29 From this post I get it that:
You are not prepared to share anything about your strategy here with others.
It is so good that everyone would try to sell it.
Then WHY are you here? |
lol, nine pages of debate about an interesting topic and all you could come up with is trying to pick an argument with me, pathetic. Why not contribute to the thread topic and join in the discussion instead of trying to disrupt it?
I'll happily reply to your post, and any of the other inane garbage you post, just not here in this thread.
Take it outside, don't expect me to reply further to your antagonistic nonsense here. | 
Aug 30, 2009 3:37am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose To be honest, I don't think I've ever really thought about what the market maker is doing. I'll have to do some homework. | It's well worth getting into in my opinion goose, the market is fascinating.
I think it helps put everything into perspective and helps us understand how and why price does what it does, in my opinion it should be mandatory knowledge for anyone trying to profit from it.
Maybe I'm sad but I find this stuff intriguing  | 
Aug 30, 2009 3:39am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B If a solid source for existing order information exists and one could gain access to it, you would not have an edge at that point, but an ATM machiene. More to come, Scotty | Hi Scotty
I think the best we can hope for is to hear rumours, I don't believe even banks share this kind of information between themselves, why would they?
Reuters, Bloomberg, and other financial news wires often report 'market whispers' ie a US bank reported buying xyz, rumoured SNB or BoJ intervention at so-and-so level, central bank rhetoric, selling interest above xyz etc etc etc
It's just another piece of the puzzle which collectively can give us a clearer picture but I don't believe there's any reliable source for this kind of information, most players play their cards pretty close to their chest for obvious reasons. | 
Aug 30, 2009 5:15am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B If you are not trading with a chart you are trading with an orderbook as Sk has confirmed when I asked about volume data or orderbook data. | I wouldn't say with an orderbook, players can't see other players cards, they can only speculate about where orders might be and try to exploit the often predictable herd. Sure, banks obviously see their own book but they're never going to share that information with competitors. Knowing where orders are, and their size, would be like knowing next week's lottery numbers  | 
Aug 30, 2009 6:10am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B Sorry Pip, one more thing...For banks to trade with each other they absolutely have to share this information or there would be no trading in the first place. When banks quote bids and asks to each other when they are looking to deal, they are sharing the very information we are talking about. Bid and ask prices are standing limit orders or terms at which they are willing to trade. | They only show what they want to be seen, they work orders strategically otherwise there would be no need for dealers, the whole process could be completely automated.
For institutions and players trading is a game of strategy not just wiggly lines on a chart, that's the thinking we're ideally trying to tap into and if I'm not mistaken the essence of this thread.
I certainly don't have all the answers, I wish I did, that's why threads like this are so interesting! | 
Aug 30, 2009 6:24am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B Sure they will split up large orders, thats quite common. Are you saying that I can trade in any avenue of FX and only show part of my order? Think about what you are saying. | Define ' any avenue'. As far as I'm aware there's no obligation for anyone to show their hand especially in an OTC market, in fact it would be counterproductive to do so.
If I'm trying to dump a few billion yen in the market the last thing I want to do is let everyone know....well unless I'm a central bank trying to intervene of course  | 
Aug 30, 2009 6:38am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx I was going to bash out another analogy but over the last couple of days i have not been feeling well and I am severely sleep deprived. | Damn, I had a book running on which sport was going to be next, my bet was fishing
Hope you feel better soon, enjoy the rest of your weekend..... | 
Aug 30, 2009 6:50am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B All I am saying is that if you want to trade, you must specify quanity. I don't see anyway around it or any way to hide it. Either you will see it in the book, or in the volume data, provided you have a good feed. | But you don't get to see what I've got hidden out back, you only get to see what's on the shelf.
Retail psychology applies just as much to the markets as it does to the local grocery store or electrical goods outlet. There's a lot more to retail than simply buying and selling. | 
Aug 30, 2009 7:25am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B Agree 100%..But it is the orders we can see that we exploit | We can't see any, we can only speculate as to where the herd have put them, and then speculate as to what players might do in order to exploit the herd, that's what we're trying to tap in to.
Simple example.....price is at a double top (or whatever) at 1.3980, with a market bias for price to fall. The herd sell at 1.3980 and have a stop at say 1.4015. Sounds like a reasonable bet? Sure.
The strategic players with the ability to move the market short term would also like to sell, but obviously at the best price they can get. They buy, trigger stops (along with some buy orders probably), price gathers short term momentum to the upside, they sell at a good price, job done! The poor patsy is left with no lunch wondering what the hell just happened, even though his trade was in fact right on the money.
As I say, that's a simple example, these people are devious mf'ers, it's the nature of the game  | 
Aug 30, 2009 7:36am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Limstylz Now why can't I make myself as clear as you? That is a perfect example of what i meant. | lol, I know, I got what you were saying so added my 2c. Like you say it would be too risky to buy in case it didn't play out that way, better to wait and then sell at the better price or at worst not to have a stop at 1.4010. Maybe miss a trade if price falls from 1.3980 but ho hum, they'll be others. | 
Aug 30, 2009 8:09am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari I just asked what products he uses, if hes not using a chart hes using something else | I wouldn't mind an answer to that one too, or even a hint would do!
Come on Steve, you really might have swine, this could be your legacy, we'll even place a plaque in memory  | 
Aug 30, 2009 8:40am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B If you go to the CME link and take a look at the order book, you are looking at peoples real orders. | I thought we're talking about spot? | 
Aug 30, 2009 9:27am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B In a round about way we are talking about spot. But where do you think our brokers get their quotes that they feed to us? | They're derived from their liquidity provider(s) quotes.
Sorry, I don't see your point. | 
Aug 30, 2009 1:12pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B I am saying that TA and FA are reduced to their probabilities. I cannot say yet what I believe about orderflow and it also being reduced to simple probabilites. I think these guys who know how to trade using orderflow trade with certainty, at least that's the way they make it sound. Meaning that, if you trade a break of support for example and go short, you don't know for sure if the orderflow is on your side, so all you can do is say "well, this trade might work out and it might not, so I better get my stop all ready." But if you are someone... |
I think others have probably already said it, nothing is a certainty as far as the direction of price goes, there are far too many unknowables and unpredictables, if that's what you're expecting or hoping to find at the end of your search then I think you'll be disapointed.
I believe understanding order flow and maybe being able to read more into how and why price moves may increase probability but it isn't some infallible Holy Grail. Like you I'm passionate about trading and particularly about these types of subjects, they're fascinating, but they're still only part of the picture. Edit: I must say Scotty, for a trader you don't seem to think very logically! Don't you think that having a romantic notion about certainty existing in the market is just a wee bit illogical?
-
Last edited Aug 30, 2009 2:23pm
| 
Sep 1, 2009 3:23am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B What we really need is access to the EBS and Reuters orderbooks. I am finding that is not going to be easy though. With the Dukascopy orderbook we have a small stream that flows into the broader interbank 'river.' We need to get to the place where all these streams converge. |
Ah yes, the sweet land of milk and honey!
I'll have a pint of whatever you've been drinking please.....  | 
Sep 1, 2009 8:49am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo 'Why' indicates knowing the reason something should happen, and the reason 'buying' or 'selling' isnt enough IMO.
'WHO', you need to work this out before you can find out why.
All IMO. | Who, do you mean who as in who is making price?
From memory Reuters 3000 Xtra had the 'who', mind you I don't know how extensive it was and you need to be a speed reader but I saw some household names flashing through. The fun part for me was watching quotes and spreads across one NFP, all I can say is wow, those people are nuts! | 
Sep 3, 2009 2:11am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 The reason no one talks about it is simple. Tapping the phones of large banks is illegal.  Oh crap! I just gave it away. |
Damn, there goes my edge
I can't help thinking there's a bit of tailchasing going on here....wood, trees etc | 
Sep 3, 2009 6:58am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Cellar Door
So there is some big secret out there that all these people "in the know" know and it has never ever being made public......please......... | I bet Steve (the OP) is having a quiet laugh to himself about now
If I understand it correctly I think the whole issue is really simple, just think like one of the big market-moving herd-exploiting players for a minute and imagine what you would do if you were them, and then find a way to benefit from what you think they're likely to do in certain market conditions.
Is it a guarantee of where price will go? Of course not, no-one could ever have all the information required to predict price direction with 100% accuracy, it's a wild goose chase trying to find something which doesn't exist.
' Probability' people, not ' certainty', that's what trading is all about isn't it? | 
Sep 3, 2009 7:51am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B Whatever floats your boat I guess. |
lol, or sinks another's
Seriously, do you really believe certainty exists in this market? Just consider the implications if that were true. | 
Sep 3, 2009 8:57am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B To answer pip in response to you sir. Yes, most people certainly get the shaft. |
Not wanting to be mean but that's their own fault. Ok we've got two market certainties, charts go to the right every day (lol) and people get shafted, and probably a whole bunch of other certainties but none about price direction. Great
Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to rain on your parade, all this information is extremely interesting and can be very useful in trading so thanks for all your research and for sharing it, but I think you've got to be realistic in your expectations of what you're going to find, the oasis is in fact more sand.
Just imagine it for a second, 100% predictable price direction...... | 
Sep 3, 2009 9:31am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo Who's looking for this? lol. Good luck to them.... |
I gotta be careful how I answer, you're a sarcasm demon!
I thought Scotty was after the "price can only go one way" solution.... | 
Sep 5, 2009 3:27am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek I can just about understand having a disaster stop 50+ pips away from entry as a just in case, but I still like to place 'correct' stops appropriate to the trade. | I don't understand this fixation with stops, and even less with arbitrary stops of 50 or 100 pips, they don't really mean anything as far as the market goes.
Isn't a stop just a price at which the trade is either no longer viable or where our analysis is proved wrong?
Knowing what we do about the potential for stop hunting around obvious areas why don't we get a bit creative and flexible with our position sizing and trade management instead of having a rigid entry/stop/limit. For example we can leave ourselves the opportunity to add to a position at better prices, or if things don't go the way we expected we can reduce exposure by closing part of a trade, maybe add back later if we want to depending on what the market does.
Isn't the idea of trading to have as little exposure to risk as possible while at the same time making as much profit as we can, and in-between not get shaken out of our trades by other players?
Obviously we have no control over what price does, all we can do is have the flexibility to be able to react to what it's doing. | 
Sep 5, 2009 5:41am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FOREXflash The one and only way to "know" where and who are placing orders
is examining LEVEL2 data!!! Skfx is talkin about TAPE READING.
Get yourself a TradeStation or some other good platform with level2 data | Sorry, how helpful can a particular broker's level 2 data be in an OTC market, it's an incomplete picture. We're trading spot, right? | 
Sep 5, 2009 6:00am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Hang on, you're trying to use futs DOM to guess order flow in spot? Really?
Well good luck with that anyway  | 
Sep 5, 2009 6:16am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FXEZ You should really break down and read your self imposed homework assignment. slacker!
That would clear up a few things with regards to who is doing the heavy trading in the fut currencies and why you should care. I don't want to spoil the ending for you. lol |
lol, I admit I'm a slacker, but I hate wild goose chases
I'd love you to spoil the ending for me, I really don't understand how you guys can use this stuff to guess (that's all it is, a wild guess) order flow in spot.
Am I in the wrong forum here, are y'all trading futures? | 
Sep 5, 2009 11:03am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FXEZ ForexFlash, good points and yes that's where the focus should be headed - the chart as a guide but the order flow to help interpret what's actually going on.
It's one thing to suppose that stops are getting hit in an area due to TA, history or probabilities, and quite another to actually watch the flow of orders........ |
This is almost painful!
Where exactly are you planning on getting this 'order flow' data which you're going to 'actually watch'? EBS? Reuters? Don't tell me, CME currency futures!
Plenty of people talking up a good game here and trying to make it all sound extremely complicated and something only they could possibly understand or know the 'secret' about, complete with cryptic nonsense, but at the end of the day there's absolutely nothing of any substance! | 
Sep 5, 2009 1:30pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 Hmm...I'm not sure if you and I are reading the same thread...I think plenty has been said......but your the one with 10 vouches and 702 posts, so what do I know... |
I have no idea what you know, posts should be judged on content not on volume or vouch's.
The point I was making is that people are talking about watching order flow data but no-one has addressed the obvious problem with this idea.....there isn't any for the spot forex market!
Some people have posted cryptic messages but like I say it's all smoke so far, nothing tangible of any substance regarding a source for reliable and accurate order information. | 
Sep 5, 2009 3:13pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023
Let me ask you a question:
If price moves into an obvious area of demand(support to the left), and quickly rebounds and heads north, what does that say about the orders that were sitting in that area waiting to be filled?
Can small orders quickly soak up supply and reverse price?
Of course, we can't know exact price and exact quantity, but this isn't needed...I'm telling you guys, its on the charts, you just have to think logically about what you are looking at. |
I'm not disagreeing with you, charts are all I've ever used because they're all that's availbable as far as I know, unless someone wants to post something different. But I think bluefish is right when he said we don't know any quantifiable information on type of orders, their size, exact position. It's all an educated guess basically, nothing more than a probability albeit a good one. ( edit: I just read your posts again, you're saying we don't actually need the accurate data, agreed)
It doesn't hurt to repeat it but I think what you're saying has been covered in the thread somewhere, in fact the idea is in the charts the OP posted right at the start.
I might have lost sight of the goal here, what exactly are we trying to achieve in the thread or have we already achieved it? @slimcat - good point, why post a chart if it's solely order flow we're supposed to be looking at, mind you he did say he doesn't need charts, I think that's where some of the confusion comes in, everyone seems to be on a mission to find a source of order flow information!
-
Last edited Sep 5, 2009 3:31pm
| 
Sep 5, 2009 3:52pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 but it seems its not being digested...and then someone will come in here and try to make things extremely complicated. |
I think that's where the confusion started, people took 'read order flow' in the literal sense, a kind of viewable book with all the orders in, people are downloading fx futs demo platforms and forex spot demo platforms with broker's Level 2 data for crissakes
I agree that the probable places for orders are on the charts but it still leaves a question mark over the statement the OP made, "you don't need the charts believe me", and I think that's where all this started getting ambiguous!
I'd like to believe it wasn't a deliberate attempt to mislead people up a dead end because the OP seems like a nice guy, but the promises of more charts and explanations, then a few cryptic messages, and then his sudden exit with the parting words " My work is done here" when it quite obviously wasn't makes me wonder if we're not part of an elaborate hoax!
Last edited Sep 5, 2009 4:09pm
| 
Sep 5, 2009 4:17pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by slimcat
judging from the OP's first post we should just be 'thinking' in terms of the orderflow. | But the OP went further than that, "Scotty,you don't need the charts believe me."
That's what has got some people on a data-finding mission and downloading fx futs demo platforms and forex spot demo platforms with broker's Level 2 data! | 
Sep 5, 2009 4:28pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 That being said however, the majority of posters who are honestly trying to learn have placed an enormous amount of helpful resources on here. |
Yep you're right, some very useful research and references, a buffet of educational material, from Scotty especially (I did in fact thank him for his efforts)
I guess the thread has actually served a very good purpose and got people to look past their indicators and s/r levels, mind you everyone's an expert now because that's what they were all doing anyway, right?  | 
Sep 5, 2009 7:21pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 The only thing that tells you anything about the resting orders at a level is the fact that price stops there, or the fact that price breaks through the level. If the breakthrough is whimpy, there weren't many stops there. If the breakthrough is like the koolaid guy coming through a brick wall, there were a lot of stops there. | lol, great description, but how would knowing how many stops were hit help us?
It looks like the thread has gone from staring into 'white space' - to predicting price direction "because it has to go there, it doesn't have a choice" - to searching out accurate order flow data - and now to just having a stab at where orders might be. Aside from none of this being particularly scientific, how can we exploit our guesswork and is it any use to us in practical trading terms, and if so, how?
Knowing where stops might be could be helpful if they're in a place which would attract stop running, but apart from that I don't see how the other potential order areas helps us as we don't have the rest of the information. | 
Sep 5, 2009 7:59pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 tapping the phones of the banks, watching through a telescope to see how full Alan Greenspan's briefcase is on the way to the fed meeting (I don't know if Ben Bernanke carries a briefcase), hiring Bud Fox to follow all the big players around and break into their offices at night and so forth...  |
haha, now there's a few ideas
Don't get me wrong, I think the thread is thought provoking plus the links have been really useful, it's just I always look for practical applications when something like this comes along and then look at the downside, I guess I'm playing devils advocate to a certain extent. Maybe the emperor has some new clothes which he'll store for future use!
Good point about a level being hit a few times, I hadn't thought of it like that, is this why they say triple tops are actually quite risky areas?
Thanks for the vouch, I returned the honour @jpat1023 S??e Tr?ume! | 
Sep 6, 2009 3:23am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 I almost forgot...I can never visit one of these mystic-cryptic-kung-fu-big-secret-pattern-underlying-all-of-trading threads without posting a link to THIS video!
EDIT: whoops, didn't want the embedded version www.youtube.com/watch?v=YldowmD89ng |
Ohhhhh noooo, I feel a Fibonacci debate coming on.....
Anyway, I'm off to count the steps between my keyboard and the coffee pot, but first I've got to understand the significance of the steps and their relation to the dynamics of the coffee, the pot, and the water....... or, how about this for a whacky off-the-wall idea, I could just go and make a cup of coffee, the end result is the same! | 
Sep 6, 2009 8:28am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FXEZ |
An interesting quote from that clip a minute and a half in....
"...... there's young people who've made tens of millions of dollars and they're just..they don't know anything about what they're trading they just understood the pattern of the commodity...."
....it seems, for trading at least, we only need the blue pill  | 
Sep 6, 2009 12:39pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek Your annotation of that chart sum up my exact belief of what was happening too. I'm glad I'm not going mad.  |
Supply and demand are simply the mechanics, it's the motives of the people behind that supply and demand which the OP was focussing on, that's the 'who', 'why', and 'where' he was referring to in his opening post.... Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx This thread will be a discussion about ORDERS.
Who places them?
Why they place them?
Where they place them? | | 
Sep 6, 2009 1:25pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 I know someone will chime in, “well how do I know where buyers find price attractive and where sellers find price attractive?” Well, look at the chart…Who can place large enough orders to move price quickly up? So after seeing this on a chart, who has open interest in the market? Where are they positioned? Where did they unload their position? So where is selling attractive? |
I wouldn't want to disappoint you so I'll chime!
This is all after the event though, so we've seen price break out and rally and we're what, assuming banks are responsible? So what's to say where they intend to unwind their positions, there could be orders anywhere, in fact they might be quite happy adding to their position. Thinking about it, how do we know the move up wasn't them unwinding a short position, they might be flat for all we know. So where is selling attractive? Fade the move up on the expectation large positions (if they've got any) will cover? If that's the plan then how could we know where that's likely to be? How many times have we seen a fast move, consolidation, and then a continuation, and the desperate words 'it's got to come back soon!'
If I'm following this correctly I'm not sure I'd want to put money on any of this 
Mind you having said that, it sounds like you're exploiting it so......
-
Last edited Sep 6, 2009 1:54pm
| 
Sep 6, 2009 6:08pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkpie Previous price action demand/sell levels will give you clues as to the strength of an area when price returns. If there was a strong down move from a supply area then when price returns it is likely to be... |
Hi Porkpie
Sure, support becomes resistance, visa versa, double/treble tops/bottoms, confluence etc etc etc.....not being funny but this is all stuff we've known about and traded for decades, what's any different this time round? | 
Sep 6, 2009 6:12pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 Ok, so how do they unwind a position without pushing price against them? | Exactly, that's why it sometimes takes months to unwind the carry trade, we've seen what happens when it's done in panic! Apparently the cost of adverse movement as a position is unwound at a 'reasonable pace' is factored in. Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 A great example is the crash of '29 ...if you research it you will find out | Research it? I was trading it! lol, just kidding! There were a lot of contributory factors, there were bound to be high levels of speculalive investments because everyone felt affluent, over confident, and above all greedy, a typical bubble which is cyclical, boom and bust, it's only now that they've decided to try and even things out a bit. Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 You're separating closing a short and going long, but they are essentially the same... | In practical trading terms sure, but there's a significant difference, money not in the market is on the sidelines and available to trade. Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 I can't tell you, if you see A then B....I can only try to get you to think in terms of how the market actually works. | The mechanics of the market isn't the problem, that's fairly straightforward, the question is how to reliably identify and exploit order flow to the degree which some people are suggesting it can be exploited, bearing in mind we have absolutely zero complete or accurate data to use.
-
Last edited Sep 7, 2009 7:13am
| 
Sep 6, 2009 6:25pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 So if we suddenly saw that EUR/USD was bid 0.0000 and offered at 1.4250, then I guess that might induce some panic selling. | Bid at 0, what's to sell, it's a giveaway  | 
Sep 6, 2009 6:36pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 Yes, but fx is special. If you're holding dollars on the sidelines, you're long dollars, no way around it... | Well you've got to hold something, dollars, yen, gold, oil, debt.... | 
Sep 6, 2009 6:37pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88  Yeah I thought of that when I was writing it too. | lol, I thought you would have been, I just couldn't resist  | 
Sep 7, 2009 5:17am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 I guess this time around you know why these things act the way they do...maybe you knew all along...most don't...but don't forget the Who, Why, and When. |
Well we know the mechanics of the market but that's about all we know, trying to apply logic or analysis to the 'Who, Why, When' is pure speculation and (educated) guesswork, subjective and discretionary. For pretty much every thesis there can be an alternative equally valid and educated opinion.
Speculating on the motives and strategy of the 'who, why, when' behind order flow is an interesting subject but the results can never be conclusive, we simply don't have enough accurate data to go on and we never will have, that's the nature of the game. | 
Sep 7, 2009 6:51am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan ODL quoted a friend like that on dollar cad around news one day. He bought, they wouldn't pay out! Lol | lol, I can't imagine why they wouldn't, no sense of humor some of these bucket shops!  | 
Sep 9, 2009 2:35am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 So today in Eur/Usd (15min/5min to follow along) we got our first hint of strong selling at 1.45, as expected.... |
As far as analysing order flow and buyers and sellers goes.....
Ok, now apply the same logic and analysis to the nearly identical previous rally from 1.42 to 1.43, just before this move from 1.43 to 1.45, there's nothing to say we won't see a repetition and another leg up to 1.47, and there's nothing to say we will.
There are numerous possible motives behind the stall and small retrace, yours is just one of many and is purely discretionary conjecture, sorry.
Counter trend trading simply because price has made a substantial move in one direction isn't an edge, it's a gamble, don't forget the old saying " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
-
Last edited Sep 9, 2009 3:14am
| 
Sep 9, 2009 5:30am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterFM This thread has shown me how I could look at a chart and look for those moments when the movement of price might indicate a reasonable chance of trading against the trend. |
Sure, I'm not saying it isn't interesting and can't be useful at times, but it's just another discretionary tool.
You might see a move up as more buyers than sellers and that 'smart money' is buying, so you buy. I might look at the same move and see it as smart money buying (enticing buyers and triggering short stops) to get a better price to sell, so I might fade the move and sell. Neither of us will know which one was right until later which isn't much help really.
We can all look at a chart retrospectively and make our own philosophy fit for why price did what it did, everything works and everyone's an expert in hindsight  | 
Sep 9, 2009 7:06am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterFM If I find myself second-guessing the charts and it's costing me money then it'll go in the bin marked Redundant Tools.  Mind you, it's getting cramped for space in there, so I might have to get a bigger bin. | haha, it might be easier to have a box for the good stuff
Mind you I've seen traders make some weird and wonderful stuff work for them, moon cycles is one that springs to mind!
What I think is interesting in my 'you buy/I sell' example is we both could have made money which dispels the theory that to win someone else has to lose, forex is just a never-ending revolving door of buyers and sellers. I guess that's another debate for another thread...... | 
Sep 25, 2009 1:27pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by thesnacker
You may not literally be able to read orderflow (in forex), but you can interpret it through charts. |
I dunno how much value it would be though, it's just a discretionary guess and couldn't be traded on, there's absolutely no complete data for an OTC market like forex. I suppose tick volume might help if you knew how to interpret it, but where is a reliable source?
Way too many variables here, what rates are you seeing? Indicative rates / price changes? Deals? What???
....and way too much mystery and intrigue...." I know but I ain't telling"....yeah, right!  | 
Sep 25, 2009 2:26pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by thesnacker When I said interpret through charts I meant, support/resistance, pinbars, patterns and such. | Right right, and that's tradeable. | 
Sep 25, 2009 2:29pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos eSignal? 200-300(?) sources/contributors. | Sure, but the question is what are the sources and who are the contributors?
You can (probably) get EBS data from a prime broker but again it's going to be incomplete, how could it be used effectively? | 
Sep 25, 2009 4:32pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos the contributors are right on that link. scroll down  | The link was an expired session but thanks anyway, but the thing is what data are you getting? Perhaps volume that they want to show you, indicative rates and price changes, all from participating liquidity providers and adjusted by brokers.
I've never compared the two scientifically or conclusively but an interbank feed has substantially fewer ticks than a brokers feed, maybe there's an arb opportunity but I doubt it would last for long before the broker moved you on.
There's plenty of theory in this thread and although it's interesting I can't see any practical advantages to any of it to be honest. | 
Sep 26, 2009 4:17am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by slimcat If anyone thinks this is an avenue worth exploring we need someone who knows which options are 'valuable' . | How about IFR?
And here's an interesting article, there are probably dozens more around the net.
This is something tangible worth researching, better than all the 'fluff' about seeing banks order books and retail traders stops, lol  | 
Sep 26, 2009 5:00pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Orderflow trading in a nutshell: 1)Find the stops and fade them. 2)Find the barrier options and push into them. 3)Find pockets with a lack of open interest and gap them. 4)Find a sequence of stops spaced 10-25 pips apart and prepare to put your kids through college. | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar What you need? A prime broker currenex/ebs account, IFR, Oanda open interest, some friends on the inside of a large bank or brokerage, a proper understanding of risk management, and most importantly; your psychological issues completely resolved. |
OMG, I think I've just crossed over into the twilight zone or something!
I am outta here while there's still a way back........sheeesh! | 
Apr 29, 2010 4:42am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by pbb2577 What an absolute rubbish statement. Ultimately you are saying that a person who talks about their edge doesnt have a clue. Whether the edge be an understanding of order flow or whatever, just because you talk about it doesn't mean you you don't know what you are talking about. Head on over to J16 and listen to some of those guys tell you about their edge. Are you telling me they don't have an edge or a clue as to what they are talking about? | I don't know, do people really disclose their strategy/edge in intimate detail on trading forums?
Having said that, I don't think the people who discuss their strategy haven't 'got it' or 'don't have a clue', most are looking to either improve their system or test their ideas with comments from others, learn more about a subject, or point others in the right direction and let them 'discover' for themselves rather than spoon feed them.
There are of course those who are trying to sell something so they have to divulge a certain amount, usually just enough to generate some interest and encourage others to pay the fee and supposedly be told the rest.
Whatever their motive, order flow is still an interesting subject in my opinion. 
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 23, 2010 4:22am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by woo
.....It has to be coupled with an intelligent mind.... | Anyone contemplating paying you 9k would be automatically excluded from the "intelligent mind" category....catch22! 
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 23, 2010 6:22am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by woo
And by the way, i withdraw my offer. | Which one, they seem to change like the weather, I'm assuming your trading and equity curve aren't as volatile and unpredictable? 
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 24, 2010 3:12am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B
....but we do need a definition around here for OF. | I couldn't agree more, but have we seen anything definitive?
My analysis probably falls within the 'TA crowd' but my equity curve is hardly 'horizontal or worse' as suggested!
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 24, 2010 9:50am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B
...when I use to trade with fibs I was basing my trade decisions off fibs. Yes, orderflow was the mechanism that moved price, but I made my trade decision with a fib, which has nothing to do with what is really going on behind the scenes of the market. |
Instead of waiting to see big players enter the market, and presumably price already moving before you see them, wouldn't it be better to try and pre-empt where and why they might enter? Isn't that what is really going on behind the scenes of the market?
I still don't understand how you guys can be 'working with orders' when none of these orders, and more importantly their size, are visible. 
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 24, 2010 10:57am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Trains, pizzas, people who feel like pizzas, big players, order flow boys......what the.......
Why is it that no-one in this thread can give a straightforward answer to a straightforward question, lol 
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 25, 2010 12:58am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar I'd like to try and clarify a few things... | Boiled down that's a long-winded way of saying what I commented to Scotty a few posts back, "wouldn't it be better to try and pre-empt where and why they might enter?", and it seems (along with thousands of other traders) that's exactly what you're doing, the only difference being you're misnaming it 'order flow trading' and that's where the misunderstanding comes in. Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Price doesn't give a crap about a trend line or a fib, but humans do. It's the humans acting on these patterns and indicators by placing orders that impact price.
It may seem like splitting hairs.... | It is splitting hairs, plus (seeing as we're hair splitting) you're forgetting that every trade isn't necessarily transacted by humans.
There's no denying that price frequently respects trend lines, ratios, and patterns, so for a purely technical trader who only trades off a chart it's totally unnecessary to look or think beyond that chart, his trading is clinical rather than subjective and discretionary. It's an age-old argument about which is the most productive, some traders advocate combining both (my personal preference, sentiment for general direction, technicals for entries/exits).
Rarely are market sentiment analysts in agreement, for every analyst who finds reasons for the market to be bullish there will be another who has equally plausible reasons why he thinks it will be bearish!
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jun 25, 2010 6:02pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar May seem crazy, but its true... | I believe you, very little surprises me any more when it comes to what novices are capable of doing in this market! Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Frequently, but not frequently enough to make long term profits with. | As predominantly a TA trader (of sorts) I'd have to disagree. Different debate but I don't believe strategy is the primary cause for failure, most approaches can be profitable to a degree in my opinion. Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar I call it order flow trading and from what I can tell it has helped a great many in their quest to understand the market. | Which is all one can hope for, that they find it helpful. Now all they need to do is put it to some practical use, that's the difficult bit. I think it's great that your posts are thought-provoking and encourage potential traders to think for themselves, that's far more valuable than ' do x and y, and (maybe!) get z'. Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar I don't need the validation of you agreeing with me. I also don't need your insight on how I can improve my methods. | I'm sure you don't, but that's not why I'm posting. I think two-way well thought out, reasoned, and logical debate, or even a challenge of one's ideas, is of more value than one-line platitudes or patronising back-patting. If nothing else it goes to reinforces our own beliefs if they can stand up under scrutiny. As far as improving methods, I don't think there's a strategy alive which can't be improved upon, sometimes an outsider looking at it subjectively can be beneficial but like I say that's not my intention here. I never mind other experienced traders pulling my strategy apart, I frequently do it myself but then I'm biased so it doesn't really help as much as someone else doing it, lol. Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Very true. Then again, an analyst is little more then wannabe trader who couldn't hack it. I wouldn't put much value on their opinions in either case... | I think it depends on the source....
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 5, 2010 5:23pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by pvpn Sorry to interrupt this 3d (it's the first one I managed to read entirely on FF... perhaps the last).
You wouldn't be in position to understand and to apply your method if you didn't learn those things before. Doing what you're doing requires a precise understanding on different strategies (altough most of them produce OF that cluster in the same spots).
@scotty: you don't need to see photons to know they're there. You can see their effects (light). Same goes for trading. You don't need to see T/S or L2. All you need is to know what they... | Ok, I'm none the wiser!
Can anyone give a practical demonstration of this OF trading in action, preferably in real time?
There seems to be lots of conjecture, speculation, and innuendo but not a lot that anyone can actually use in the practical sense to make money.
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 5, 2010 7:35pm
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by eurotrash
So if you knew there was a strong imbalance of market orders......do you not think you could use that in any practical sense to make money | If the information was complete and included all order flow as well as all market participants motives and future intentions then yes, I would say most definitely it could be put to practical use.
I think the problem is that no-one has that information, the game by it's very nature is one of secrecy, we can only speculate as to the what and when. Sure we can try and get inside the heads of players and anticipate their next move but I think it's an impossible task to try and profit from what we believe, or probably more the point what 'they' want us to believe. Bluff and double bluff, painted charts, probing different levels, and heaven knows what other 'tricks'. We're at a distinct disadvantage, even institutional traders aren't privy to that information, so what hope do we have as bottom-of-the-food-chain retail traders? In the majority we're the fodder!
DS made an interesting comment a while back, something along the lines of order flow trading being a state of mind, to me that suggests the whole OF approach has little to do with actual facts and figures about order flow but more to do with the way we view the market and price action.
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 6, 2010 3:25am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by mikkom
I have quantified few of these points myself and use them in my trading | In what sense are you saying "quantified"?
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 6, 2010 4:08am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by pvpn .....Man I know this will sound as voodoo, black-magic, witch-hunting etc to most of you, but when you get there you'll understand..... | I must admit it is beginning to sound a bit like someone else mentioned, "Feel the Force, Luke!", or something out of a kung fu B-movie! I can believe ESP in some things but in financial markets? Really?
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 6, 2010 4:10am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by mikkom Basically I looked the past 10 years of data on multiple pairs and tried to find points with similar properties where the price movement differs from random. | I do the same, but using TA.
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." | 
Jul 6, 2010 5:43am
|  | Parsimony Rulez! | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FXSurfer
Okay, we could have done without that one maybe.  | "Use the force, Luke!", pvpn said it not me, I was just repeating it!
You know for all the interesting and academic-sounding stuff posted on this thread I still can't escape the fact that there isn't one practical demonstration of this theory actually working in the market as (part of) a strategy!
It's an interesting subject but without any practical use is it of any value to us as active traders?
__________________ "It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." |  | |
3 Traders Viewing This Thread (2 are members)
| withnail, Invisible | |