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Old Jun 10, 2010 11:53pm
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Originally Posted by Darkstar View Post
Well thats kind of sad. You guys spent like 7 months working on this stuff and didn't come up with any conclusions. Anyone still interested in the subject?
Very very very much so sir. =)
You and Stevie have hinted plenty... and I'm using it to the best I can... profitably... orderflow is the "ace full of kings" of speculation.

Not a PRO at it, but the book is unraveling...
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  #824  
Old Jun 22, 2010 2:20am
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<truncated>

An iq of 180, without reflective mind, would only be good at calculating, doing maths, but not explore thoughts deeper, understand how things are. I cant quite put my finger on what this other skil is, but its not iq, but this skill is the most important for a trader, in order to READ SITUATIONS.


I posses around 130 iq, however, my insightfullness, is quite extraordinary. FOr me to even illustrate this concept with and understand this way, and even understanding what kind of inntelligence a trader need show that i posses a very thinking...
You have what a the Clifton Strengths Finder test would call Deliberative and "Intellection". I can relate to what you are saying alot. I need to figure stuff out and find out WHY things are the way they are. There is alot of depth and rational inter-relations that can be gleamed by thinking about how stuff fits together.

Another trait of a good speculator would be introspection and an understanding of one's own psychology. Some call it intra-personal skills.

For the "read situations" part, I'd say it's an instinct. I know some old school businessmen from the 1940s. Dropped outta grade school to feed their families and stuff. Life was a matter of survival and making shit work. Obviously can't do multivariate calculus and shit, but they can SMELL opportunity. It is a combination of experience, understanding and simply the burning desire to survive. It does something to you. Soros said similar as well I feel. There's something about tapping into the survival instinct that makes one read situations more or less instinctively. This same "read situations" trait is what makes a good special forces trooper. I've trained hand to hand with some of them and heck. You learn to "read situations" QUICK. It also spills over into many other facets of life. I can attest to that. And this trait is generally present in people who enjoy extreme sports / competitive high speed sports like boxing or fencing. That's my theory at least, cause a martial artist or spec ops trooper who can't read situations is... unthinkable.

Met people like that before? Can't be bothered with studying or what naught, but you give them a task to do and it ALWAYS get stuff done no matter what.

Good posts btw. It's refreshing to see someone who has put thought into things; Leon too. =)
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Old Jun 22, 2010 3:27am
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Originally Posted by PurplePatch View Post
I think it's easy to over-analyse and think about all the why's and wherefores, and trying to read and understand what's going on in depth is mostly a waste of time, and while you do this the market can change on a whim, the psychology and herd mentality plays a bigger part than anything.

So yes I agree, you need to be able to almost instinctively react and understand what you need to trade, otherwise your opportunity is gone.
Yeah. There's the "theoretical" musing, then the shit that works. Usually the stuff that works has been refined down to something elegant and simple. Or rather "simple". I tried explaining what I did to one of my mates and he was like, "dude. wtf?" Then I realised "simple" is relative to the degree of internalisation. Not that I'm some guru or anything... just workin' w what I know... and strivin' to get better n better.

And hey! Markets have their PMS/pot smokin' days too don't they?

THAT SAID. One of my good friends took $3k to $70k lately. He does something really simple. Knows jack shit abt order flow. It's called, going-with-the-trend. haha. G'day fellas. =)
And yes, part of me thinks he got lucky, but he's smart enough to bail while his luck was good and it waiting out another run. Gotta give credit to the control of one's own greed. As they say, I'D RATHER BE LUCKY THAN GOOD!
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  #835  
Old Jun 22, 2010 5:25am
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To quote the mathematician and philosopher Bertrand Russell (1872-1970): "[i]In the modern world the stupid are cocksure, while the intelligent are...
That is a very interesting post. Thanks for sharing it Hanover =)
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  #836  
Old Jun 22, 2010 5:31am
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order flow and trend trading goes hand in hand. The major difference is the skilled or those with the holy grail are in early while mainstream retail traders are usually late to the party.
Yeah, I guess you can put it that way too.
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  #847  
Old Jun 23, 2010 12:51am
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I may be heading off on a slightly different tack, but I definitely see value in finding possible confluences in correlated markets --- especially in forex, because of its inherent need to maintain triangular equilibrium. For example, if closely correlated pairs (e.g. AUDUSD and NZDUSD) are both about to hit strong support areas simultaneously, does that increase the probability of a bounce? My research suggests that it does....... but the people who believe in a KISS approach are going to say that such an idea is waaaaaay too complex....
Markets are by default pretty complex. I actually hold the view that everything is related... some, like you mentioned, AUD & NZD are more related than others and this level of analysing complexity, well there's no end to its depth I guess. There're armies of PhDs working on super computers, HF trading algos, etc etc.... then we have sentiment, which is another ballgame altogether.

However, on the execution level of at least discretionary trading the way most people do it. Order flow, PA, or whichever other method employed, it has to be internalised sufficiently so that it is decently simple in order to ensure that (pre) execution doesn't get wonnky (like hesitating to pull the trigger); There are emotions involved in this business no matter how good one gets. So the "simple" part is to mitigate this portion of human 'risk'.

Not trying to take a stab @ u mate, just trying to bring up a point here. I think both can co-exist rather harmoniously and can be mutually beneficial. Some pple have a KISS edge and make a nice bundle too. Nothing wrong w either approach =)
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Old Jun 24, 2010 2:12am
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That's for sure!

Agreed, there are many possible ways to approach analysis, both KISS and otherwise. Sorry if I gave the impression that correlated markets was the only one. It's just that for me currently, it's becoming another piece of the puzzle that's gaining in significance.

I also agree that complex methods can become difficult to implement, in the sense that one can easily see several reasons to buy, and several reasons to sell, at the same time. I've been there many times, LOL. That's why, at least for me, it's important to have a fairly...
Heya mate. Nah, you didn't come across as "this is THE ONLY way". Just bringing up another point in the discussion here.

I am quite averse towards complex quant type approaches, possibly because I'm not numerically (like multivariate, stochastic math) inclined.

One of the major frameworks I use is risk appetite/aversion. Keeps me in touch with the news/world as well and from there I use PA to swing trade. On a day to day basis I use "order flow" for those quick but high probability setups.

Who knows what "order flow" is supposed to really be anyway. It seems like there's 1 or more variation per person here. But hey! As long as it works aye? The principle behind it is still the same - getting in ahead of the liquidity flush down.

It's just another tool in the box to me. A useful really tool! and I'm thankful to SKFX for opening my eyes to it, but still it's a tool. Can't run the risk of the dude having only a hammer and playing that game only now can we?

It's like life. No one knows everything and there's always something more to learn. That's why it's an infinitely fascinating game.

I know woo comes across as a crass egotistical s.o.b. but hey. He's got some points which are decent, I know what's he's driving at. Just a tad bit of "bad marketing" tt's all. It makes me think of the importance of perception. We "here" on this small thread are a mini form of "the market", a group of people with access to information, and drawing our views/conclusions. We've all got our flaws. From here we can also understand why the market can sell off SHARPLY --> a whole buncha people having similar conclusions --> new info that makes everyone go "OH F***!!! COVER!" So we have things like the May10 flash crash and to a larger magnitude 1987. I've studied those situations and asked myself "how could I have saw that coming?" and this time around for the flash crash, thankfully, we saw it coming. Not the magnitude - that one who knows - but there were sufficient red flags that the market used to tip its hand.

Gotta love this game!

Appreciate your thought-filled insightful posts Hanover. There've been many.
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Old Jun 24, 2010 10:54am
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To trade orderflow, you make your trading decisions based off of orders you see in the market, not price charts. It's much easier than you can imagine. What this does is, in a way, puts you in a virtual pit. You can begin to 'hear' what the other traders are doing. We are never parasitic as I once thought, but we are coat-tailers. Informed traders have very predictable trading behavior and their trades make prices more informative by pusing price back to value. Therefore, when we trade with them we push price back to value with them.

What do you think are the top 3 characteristics of informed traders? (Questions for you to answer personally) Once you have your criteria, go hunting .

Since I've stumbled accidentally upon what OF is, after stumbling in the dark for close to a year, I have a new perspective on TA. It's no different from what I've said in my Quest for Wisdom thread. Basically though, TA is a thought process that happens outside of a market. It provides one with enough data points to begin drawing fallacious conclusions about causation in price movement (illusionary thinking/erroneous pathology). I personally applaud those who can successfully employ statistical data mining techniques, but what they are basing their decisions on does not have much to do with trading, but with hidden patterns in all the numbers. Nothing wrong with that of course, but I like to get to the heart of the matter.

What separates TA and OF/Informed traders is the trading order. On the trading spectrum, the informed trade first, OF/algos trade after them, common TA traders then trade, and then the uninformed. Ironically the most informed trade with the least informed most of the time, while the semi informed traders (TA traders), trade somewhere in the middle. This is why the ignorant usually lose everything quickly, while the TA crowd endures mostly horizontal or worse equity curves.

Sorry, I know you were replying to Hanover, but we do need a definition around here for OF.
heya Scotty! Thanks for the definition. Finally we have one.

What you wrote here is some food for thought. By this definition, I am by no means an orderflow trader then. I prob am a step of 2 after the OF boys. I guess staring @ the screen long enough and thinking, and with the OF concept in mind, I kinda "felt" when/where orders would stack and when it was being consumed and go with that abit.

At some places I can anticipate with high probability where order will likely begin coming in, perhaps only those times I am 'with' the OF boys. (and this still needs ALOOOTtaaa polishing...heh)

Clarification needed please:
- By "orders you see in the market" do you mean the market depth?
- Also, if you are so inclined, elaborate more on "virtual pit" please. I know what you're trying to say, but am clearly lacking in the perspective with regard to how this concept can be applied to the run of the mill MT4 platforms.

I'd like to add though, that what we're talking about here on this thread in general is the short term order flow type concept. There's the "major flow" aka daily / fundamental trend as well and it is possible to make a pretty good living just working TA in the direction of fundamental/economic trend. But let's not open up that box here. Different topic altogether.

This thread's getting pretty thought provoking. Glad to see it alive again after so long. =)

Appreciate your detailed thoughts Scotty. Deliberative ruminations are just RARE.
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  #886  
Old Jun 24, 2010 8:46pm
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I'd like to try and clarify a few things...

First off, what Scotty is doing is one way to trade orderflow, but it isn't THE way. The truth is, there is no ONE way to trade orderflow.

As I've said before, orderflow trading is a mindset. The common thread that ties it all together is making decisions based on future orders.

<truncate>
Thank you very much for the clarification DS. It's helped to put into words a buncha stuff that has been floating around my head.

It's like saying economics (or technicals/news/whatever) and stuff can play a part in influencing what the market will do, but most importantly, it's what the market perceives it to be. This becomes "the truth" to the market and adds a layer of predictability... but the real edge is in reading human perception of current conditions.

One can almost say, it doesn't matter what the real world implications are. To profit, what is important is thinking about what others would be thinking and how to profit from that. Very much like Keynes and the beauty contest analogy...
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Old Jun 25, 2010 2:28am
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Furthermore, I have all but left TA and chart reading in the dust. I don't know how long what I do will continue to work, hopefully for a long long time, but my plan is to exploit that one thing until it's gone.
Scotty. You've left TA in the dust? Might I ask what you're doing now? I presume it's working... I'm still curious about your "virtual pit" comment.

Level II // Market depth?
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  #910  
Old Jul 6, 2010 5:10am
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I must admit it is beginning to sound a bit like someone else mentioned, "Feel the Force, Luke!", or something out of a kung fu B-movie! I can believe ESP in some things but in financial markets? Really?
Hey mate. If it works for you, that's great, if it doesn't, it doesn't. There's no holy grail out there. It's just that some people, like me and a number of others here, need to understand the mechanics of why shit happens. Why is support support and resistance resistance? Why is PA PA? Why does price move? A pinbar! So price MUST move? Not-At-All. I bet you the people who use "order flow" here all work it differently as well.

Early on, I was told: It all works and it all doesn't work.

It's trader dependent. You can't learn music, dance, or martial arts without a good feel for the rhythm or body mechanics.

And hey. If you dont like it. Quit searching for this elusive "orderflow". As long as what you're doing works that's good enough.
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  #912  
Old Jul 6, 2010 5:11am
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What you need to do is move to the next level. You must absorb all information that is given to you and then "sync with the market". Man I know this will sound as voodoo, black-magic, witch-hunting etc to most of you, but when you get there you'll understand.

Like a pro piano player, you look at the music sheet and don't need to read each and every note. You can "feel" what the composer wanted from you: and you execute. Learn the music, forget the music, play!

Same goes for trading. You float in the ocean of information, rumors, charts etc....
I relate to this much. Thanks for putting it succinctly.
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Old Jul 6, 2010 5:51am
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I'd like to see a book that measures crowd behavior, how it may break down the chart patterns of it. Would combine your 'ocean... synch'ing and price action nicely.
Try look up Mind Over Markets by Tim Dalton. See if you can relate to it. It's on my list of things to work on. Friend of mine swears by it but I don't get wtf (I sweat AT it. haha) he's doing. LOL. We work this game differently =)
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Old Jul 7, 2010 1:24am
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I guess that was myself. I cannot explain it, but at some point your mind connects the dots and all becomes mechanical. You know where most orders could be, you wait to get there and watch the action. You can enter beforehand (anticipating a move). If the move does not concretize you'll be out in no-time. If it does concretize you profit.

Example: DS was mentioning that you need to find the gaps. Gaps (as I understand them) are areas where price moves between one consolidation level to the other. there's no stopping inside the gaps because everybody...
This phenomenon of internalising a 'way' is actually documented by George Leonard in his book called Mastery. He talks about the "joy of the plateau" in that when we are learning a skill, the learning curve looks like a staircase, up, flaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttttt, up... flat... up.

During the flat parts, where there seems to be no progress, we just have to keep on keeping on, and suddenly, one day, you wake up and something in the subconscious clicks and you "get it". Another 'up leg' in skill per se.

I have been thinking in terms of orders since SKFX started this thread and one of the things that has recently been added is reading the general flow of orders and going with it. That's how trends form, be it shorter term intra-day ones, swings of several days or even multi week/month trends. All orders with a primary bias.

This, as opposed to short term flush outs we see fairly regularly in the short term... interestingly, but not surprisingly, I find that these moves are also fractal in nature... I've yet to fully experience and be able to trade what DS or SKFX's uni-directional moves one side gets squeezed very badly, but I'm looking forward to the next 'level up'. PVPN, if you'd like to shed some light on this here it'd be interesting. =)

Could I also ask how you started thinking in terms of orders? I think most of us here started off as TA people and I am still very TA based except that I have begun to think about where and what might be happening in terms of support/resistance and price action.
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Old May 18, 2011 10:27pm
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Almost do not follow FF anymore. But wanted to make a rare contribution in tribute to SKFX who started this thread and got me thinking about orderflow.

I'd say, it's a mindset. It's looking at the chart, and thinking about where big money players would most likely begin to place their orders. That's how you get in at the tip of the pinbar or often times even, the high/low of the day.

Also, what situation would force a whole buncha people to NEED liquidity SO badly that they all scramble to hit the market? That's when you see those ridiculously fast moves.

Where is "cheap" to buy?
When will a whole buncha pple go, "omg. I'm so fucking dead. GET ME OUT NOW?"

---

Also. "Orderflow" here on FF isn't quite a method as it's purported to be. It's really a method of thinking about markets.

I personally use it to help me position with the longer term trend. I still use price action heavily as well. It's a damn useful tool in the box that augments all the other tools. No holy grail here.
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Old May 19, 2011 3:08am
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One of those posts that make me smile and realize "somebody out there gets it".

You are spot on especially about orderflow being a way of thinking about the market instead of a trading method (which is what most think). It's a mindset game. Sort of like poker in that sense, I guess, though this is a bigger and more complicated environment.

Needless to say, I can confirm this as well:
Thanks Marv. My perspective of it is trying to understand the incentives of market participants given how a particular market is trading at the moment. Very much like poker in the sense you're sussing out the incentives of your opponents. (and if you've no clue who the patsy is....)

I think its really summed up in what I posted above. It's really hard to explain it! Haha. Am actually lookg fwd to what darkstar has to say about it.

I can think of several ways to use this in trading markets. But perhaps we can PM instead... and continue to shroud "the holy grail of orderflow method!" with voodoo.
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Old Jun 7, 2011 6:30am
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For all the order flow practitioners in this thread - random question: how did YOU discover order flow trading? Just stumbling upon it by blind luck, or did you have a mentor?

Excluding people who learned it from order flow threads on this forum, obviously.

Thanks
I would answer you, but it looks like you've excluded me from the people group whom you'd like answers from.
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Old Jun 8, 2011 2:04am
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I can confirm that (though was never privileged to received any direct tutoring or anything like that) it was by reading Darkstar's posts that I started thinking about this, tried to connect the dots, and started looking at the market from that new perspective. He also indeed gets all credit for the cool term "orderflow". I don't remember anyone using it before.
Amen to that mate.

To me from current understanding "order flow trading" is, as SKFX has said, "thinking about the white spaces on the charts" and who might be motivated to take action there... and why.
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Old Jun 8, 2011 2:15am
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I didn't learn it so much as create it from nothing. After I read Reminesences of a Stock Operator I was struck with some ideas about how and why prices change. That led me into studying microstructure and thinking deeply about the people who participate in the market. Roughly 2 years later, I started making assloads of money and felt the need to share some of what I had discovered.

When I started sharing, people asked what kind of trading I was engaged in. The answer I came up with was "Order Flow Trading" and that was the origin of the...
Darkstar, since you're active on this thread now, I'd just like to take this opportunity to say thank you for helping to shed light on this perspective of the markets.

Learning to think in terms of the market and it's participants has been a tremendous additional tool. So yes, THANKS.

Quick question:
You once mentioned that there are times when stops are staggered in clusters and if you get in in size (which I assume you've done several times) you can pay off your kid's college tuition in that one trade.

I do understand the mechanics to a certain extent.. ie: multiple stops + barriers triggered leading to a massive offer/no-bid kinda of market which cascades.

How would you anticipate something like that happening?
My experience in this has been limited to being pre-positioned, then seeing an event drive the market insanely bid/no-offer. Abit stuck on how to _anticipate_ these mechanics happening though.

If you don't want to answer on the forum, PM is fine too.
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Old Jun 26, 2011 10:17pm
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Well there you go. Waiting for that shorting opportunity paid off. I hope you didn't hold on too much to your long bias there Rich.

Usually I would establish a bias when I have enough good reasons to and then use orderflow only when waiting for the trade opportunity i.e. to gauge when to enter/exit. If I don't have a clear enough bias, I would basically watch the orderflow for scalping opportunities (raised by short term inefficiencies).
yeah mate. essentially this is why many come to realise it's the "levels"/"stuff in the white spaces of the chart" that are more important.

at the end of the day, it's people buying/selling that moves price aye?

hence why news/shifts in sentiment are important.
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Old Jul 13, 2011 2:28am
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Default Stop Cascade USDJPY

From my understanding of order flow and reading darkstar's stuff, I smell a stop cascade in USDJPY last night.

Looks like more than 1 barrier / massive stop got triggered.

Anyone with the data can confirm that?
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Old Jul 15, 2011 2:08am
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TOKYO, July 13 (IFR) - USD/JPY led the JPY crosses down early as it plunged through 79.00 and then 78.50 in an apparent stop-loss run in thin, post-New York trading. A low of 78.48 was seen before the market bounced hard. The push down took out presumed option barriers at 79.00 and 78.50,
Nice. If only IFR would tell us that there're freaggin' barriers there before hand.

Is there anyone with knowledge of where to get barrier/stop newsfeeds? Pls PM me. =)
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