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  #139  
Old Aug 30, 2009 6:22am
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Default I read this aticle before...

Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 View Post
Several years ago I wrote an article about one technique that can help a market maker (or a bank in the FX world) to fill a large commercial customer order. Here's a link:

http://market-geeks.com/articles/009_StopHunting.php
Didn't realise this author of this article was you, capitalist... I will keep my eyes peeled for more of your posts...
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  #146  
Old Aug 30, 2009 6:44am
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Default Or the limit order in the original direction...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B View Post
... Price ticks up to 23, 24, the orders are still there at 25. Price bounces off of 24 three times and the quantity at 25 gets even bigger!
Okay, so pip places a limit SELL at .0050 (human psychological affinity with whole numbers and their medians) and puts his stop up at 0.0160 (in case the buys go that far...) and the very next moment, price takes out 26, shoots up a little way and then resumes the original course South, leaving pip in the market at a great price.

Hows that?

Edit: Or perhaps no stop as he knows that spikes could happen to take out HIS stop?
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  #151  
Old Aug 30, 2009 6:53am
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Default But you have no idea which direction its going to go...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B View Post
I like the idea, but unless you can actually see the orders, you are just guessing ->TRADING BLIND
...after the stops at 25 are taken out. You are relying on momentum to push you higher, or not?

Does the orderbook show you only stops or are the levels it shows comprised of peoples TP's also (you cancel a buy with a sell off and a sell with a buy)? What I mean is are stops the same as stop losses and take profits combined?
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  #153  
Old Aug 30, 2009 6:59am
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Default Safer to stay out?

Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx View Post
@Limstylz/Scotty

How does pip operate?
Do you know?If you do,then your golden.If you don't then pip might play you guys and cut you out lol.

cheers
sk
In that case, is it not better to wait until this stop hunt has finished and await clear direction? Your only danger being that you would potentially miss out on better prices?
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  #154  
Old Aug 30, 2009 7:19am
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Default Thats what I thought

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
I think and stop loss and take profit are just buy (sell) market orders.

If you are long then the TP is market sell and your SL is market sell.
So, in that case in our example, we would be better to SELL at the higher price, rather than BUY at the high price, unless you intend to sell at an even better price, in which case you better hope that you have enough liquidity left in the market to push you higher to do it.

All falls flat if market sentiment actually changes because of the stop hunt and the market actually trends in new direction
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  #157  
Old Aug 30, 2009 7:30am
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Default Your example is exactly what i was attempting to convey

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt View Post
Simple example.....price is at a double top (or whatever) at 1.3980, with a market bias for price to fall. The herd sell at 1.3980 and have a stop at say 1.4015. Sounds like a reasonable bet? Sure...
Now why can't I make myself as clear as you? That is a perfect example of what i meant.
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  #159  
Old Aug 30, 2009 7:36am
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Default For sure

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
I guess it all depends which way you think the market is going to move...
So this is when 'market whispers' and interpretation of fundamentals comes into play for a much wider picture than the immediate view, unless you are stop hunting also, in which case you might take the opposite veiw.

e.g. US Housing Stats are much better than expected. Stop Hunter piles on Buy on Cable, taking out stops and then once finished then places a Market Sell. We as OTC traders would hope to have a stop sell order somewhere under where the new price begins to stall.

Last edited Aug 30, 2009 7:47am
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  #165  
Old Aug 30, 2009 7:59am
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Default Whoa....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari View Post
Man I just asked what products he uses, if hes not using a chart hes using something else, this isnt rocket science. I didnt even ask how hes uses the product. And I didnt ask you.
Easy fella... I don't think LasVahGoose was disrespecting you in anyway... No need for that attitude.
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  #182  
Old Aug 30, 2009 11:16am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari View Post
The amount of capital required to move the market is phenomenal
Depends on how liquid the market is at the time...
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  #248  
Old Sep 1, 2009 6:45am
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Default I would contend this

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fudomyo View Post
Anyway, I took my first live trade today based off of price orderflow on the GY in the London session and made 105 pips. (I had to get out of the continuing trend down because I have strict rule never to trade news.
This looks to be a standard SR trade to me, not a trade based on order-flow. How did you determine the orders at that level? Were you using market depth analysis?

I can't see any evidence of stop hunting on any of the time frames. True, I don't have access to see orders at particular levels but I don't understand your reasons for your statement of orderflow here.
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  #249  
Old Sep 1, 2009 6:54am
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Default Well said

Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkpie View Post
The purpose of this thread is to explain and explore what we know and that is taking our understanding to another level. If you cannot contribute to this greater understanding then go and join the knobs on the interactive threads where you will be welcomed like a hero for making 'no brainer' trading decisions.
Porkpie, The more I read your posts, the more I see myself becoming you in a few years time... (hope that didn't sound gay... not that there's anything wrong with that... no angry voices of homophobic nature either inverted or extroverted please... I mean no offence).

Just for clarification then... Scotty B looks like he will be joining the ranks of the stop hunters in the fact that he is looking for orderflow to dry up and then take price further (higher or lower of the opposing intermediate trend).

Where do you stand in this? Would you be looking at orderflow to dry up and then as PipMutt and I seem to agree, we wait for the stop hunt to finish (or at least appear to finish) and then join the original trend direction? Obviously, to do this we would be 'lagging' and not leading price.

Last edited Sep 1, 2009 7:14am
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  #256  
Old Sep 1, 2009 7:50am
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Default Similar to how I view it

Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkpie View Post
So in sum, I place great importance on these SD zones as areas of price reversal. Order flow data might trick me into thinking price would go straight through these areas due to stop hunting and limit order triggering on the other side of these zones, but when price lingers in these areas it would give me greater certainty of the strength of these levels. My entry levels are pre-defined by SD zones based on previous price action. Order flow will simply give me certainty at the levels but will not be giving me an entry signal in itself.
Sure... I get where you are coming from now. Its no different from the way we currently trade SD, just gives a better certainty to trade setups.

I guess I'm looking at this thread in two ways. To confirm a current setup as just mentioned and to view potential stop hunting tactics to avoid, rather than be in on...

Pleased that I am on the right lines at least, even if I don't have the full picture yet.
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  #258  
Old Sep 1, 2009 8:02am
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Default Maybe a poor example then

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fudomyo View Post
yes, you do have access. you just need to know what you're looking for.
sorry. I don't mean to sound cryptic, or just show up and say, wow, look how great I'm doing. I was responding to a rather condescending post about my inability to grasp what this discussion is about. Initially, someone said, the orderflow footprint was all you needed to know, and I was clarifying a point.
I saw that trade myself using simple SR so maybe it isn't the best example of trading with order-flow. Regardless... You think you have it... Well done to you!
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  #318  
Old Sep 2, 2009 9:22pm
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Default How would you determine this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose View Post
Nice article, thank you.

I was looking up a term I never heard of before called 'price shading'. It caught my attention and was wondering if it was still something brokers do today? I imagine they still do and sounds fairly straight forward. I think if you can spot them shading at round numbers or key S/R levels, it can give a clue as to what direction they think price will eventually go. Maybe more of 'heads up' or 'early warning' type of thing to start paying attention to an area. Something to put on the research list I guess.
With brokers who shade their prices, you would need to have a second data feed to compare your current feed with. The issue then becomes 'who do you trust more'? Did you have a particular source for the 'clean' feed in mind?
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  #348  
Old Sep 3, 2009 10:41am
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Default unless

Quote:
Originally Posted by slimcat View Post
If enough people are 'seeing' the same thing then we might be moving in the right direction....
Unless we are in the 95% of traders who are wrong...

Anyhoo... From my observation of your chart, I would not have been looking at shorts, I would have been looking for longs in your potential target areas. My personal stop would have been somewhere beneath your potential target area. Not looking for shorts as price would have been too low there, considering where price came from and the fact that there was little to no consolidation in that area.

Your trendline/SR also confirms the direction...

If I was able to hunt for stops, I would be looking to short towards the bottom of your potential target area before resuming the major trend up.

That's my take on it...
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  #351  
Old Sep 3, 2009 12:16pm
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Default My statement wasn't clear...

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt View Post
You're both saying the same thing aren't you?

But how would you use that expectation/suspicion? You couldn't short because you wouldn't know whether there would be a spike down or not (stop hunt). Most long trades would probably have had a reasonably tight stop below the low which would seem like a reasonable place to most people, hence the herd-exploiting stop hunt which in that example obviously didn't happen for whatever reason (range?).

I guess the way I've been using it is to be cautious where I place stops, using a smaller trade size...
I meant that the bottom of the potential target area is where I would begin the stop hunt south (if I had the tools and capital for the job), to just under the lowest line, not start it at the top of the target area as there would be too much support I presume.

However, as I am a tiny trader, my thoughts would be to let the stop hunt occur and then once it appears to be resuming the trend (obviously still a danger area) then jump on.

Your idea about averaging in sounds good. Is that how you generally manage your trades?
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  #372  
Old Sep 4, 2009 5:59am
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Default Tools for the job

I think the fact that there are a small number of these setups per pair over an irregular period, leads me to believe that they are 'targeted' entries, hence the reason that they still look similar to your charts, Bleek.

So where you actually DO see this happening, whoever is running stops, has more than just SR confirming the trade entry (at this point I still presume orderbook and/or other insider information is being used).

Probably at this point, the best we can do (until we are privvy to either a major orderbook and/or other insider info) is just be aware that stop hunting is a possible outcome and take pipmutts suggestion of scaled in entries and wider stops (if you choose to use them).
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  #373  
Old Sep 4, 2009 6:01am
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Default To my mind, your long fits the criteria...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek View Post
A chart describing the exact thing.
...but your short doesn't...

EDIT: Scratch that, looking at it again, neither do, but they are good examples of SR at work. Perhaps the first short at the beginning of your chart fits the criteria though. Is that an EU chart?

Edit 2: Just noticed it is EU
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  #378  
Old Sep 4, 2009 6:33am
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Default I meant 'hard' stop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleek View Post
...but that would imply you would always need to be right. We only have to look at the charts to see the market run away in minutes on occasion, a false move with no stop in those areas would make for serious hits!

I can just about understand having a disaster stop 50+ pips away from entry as a just in case, but I still like to place 'correct' stops appropriate to the trade.
I meant run without a hard stop, not without a mental stop. Granted, this needs discipline, but if you are a stop runner, your mindset is to counter stop hunting against you. If you use a mental stop for this, you can avoid getting taken out by spikes and still close your position once you know you are wrong. Dangerous?... yes, would I have the balls to trade like that?... probably not...
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  #380  
Old Sep 4, 2009 6:38am
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Default Setup example?

I attach a chart for consideration.

It is EURUSD. To me it looks like a stophunt occurred to get the entity into a trade which subsequently went long from the lowest point for about 200 pips.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:stop hunt.gif
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ID:303013    
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  #382  
Old Sep 4, 2009 8:43am
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Default Could the setup be occuring on cable now?

Time is 13:43 London time... marking time to check setup...

Edit: NFP report was better than both the last and expected, causing small retail traders to short (in my example Cable). Stop hunters seeing the obvious place for stop losses of those going short at 1.6370 and 1.6380, draw the shorts in by faking initial short, then going long in the process drawing in long trades, taking out stops of short trades and then reversing their trades at 1.6380. Traders who went long and didn't close out in profit are now feeling the pain.

Am I on the right lines?

Edit: Picture attached for clarity
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:cable.gif
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ID:303197    

Last edited Sep 4, 2009 9:43am
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  #384  
Old Sep 4, 2009 10:07am
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Default Not sure I follow your example

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
Remember this...simples

Attachment 303207
I understand your chart from SR but not from this orderflow topic. Would you mind explaining your thoughts for me, please?
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  #387  
Old Sep 4, 2009 10:19am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
Sorry Limstylz, that post was a bit flippant (wasn't meant to be )
Maybe i'm confusing the topic, i'm a simple soul.
I didn't think it was flippant, I just didn't understand what you were seeing.

Yes, on a lower time frame that looks obvious to me too.

Perhaps it is me that is confusing the topic as they are intertwined. I would consider myself more simple than you when it comes to reviewing this stuff.
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  #394  
Old Sep 4, 2009 11:01am
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Default I think I'm partly responsible

I'm gearing my posts towards stop hunting (and its participation in and avoidance) and not simply orderflow.

In AstonDan's posted chart, the orderbook probably didn't have orders directly at the SR level but slightly under. Therefore the stop hunt that went on was just to those levels.

Reading simple SR is one facet of orderflow, I believe. The other is capitalising on both sides.

Just my opinion...
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  #396  
Old Sep 4, 2009 11:16am
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Default

I was agreeing with your chart analysis (after the fact). Actually I've read 'trading for dummies'... and if you weren't joking, you will have read it all before!
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  #400  
Old Sep 4, 2009 11:56am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
Lol, fair enough. Ok, i'll play ball: No chart, foward planning, sterling swissy, 1.75 - where's the play? Or what's the play?

But whisper it incase Soros is lurking...
I didn't mean 'you' were after the fact I meant 'I' was after the fact. I am notorious for picking the wrong direction until I see the play happening...

However... retrace to between 1.060 an 1.063, then resume a long...

A blind guess...

Edit: sorry, you said sterling swissy... I misread it as swissy...
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  #402  
Old Sep 4, 2009 12:15pm
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
No worries Limstylz, but why make a 'blind' guess? I think the 'order flow' or witches brew or whatever its called is obvious on a chart, so why try and outsmart it by second guessing?
A blind guess, as it was a brief look. I couldn't be bothered to analyse it properly... Friday feeling
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  #404  
Old Sep 4, 2009 2:06pm
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Default And just as I predicted

I was completely wrong on Swissy. Well, I did say I was useless until I see the play happening...
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  #595  
Old Sep 24, 2009 7:38am
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Default MarketDelta... a help tool for orderflow?

http://portal.knowledgebase.net/disp...r=7.091922E-02

Taken from the above:

"Spot (cash) forex is a decentralized market and usually does NOT include volume with each trade. This affects the Footprint chart within MarketDelta and related volume based studies (Volume breakdown indicator) because they require volume in order to work properly....

...Monitor the trades NOT volume. This is a quasi-method for monitoring trading activity with spot forex. Here's how:
Open the Footprint preferences | General tab | Chart TRADES at each price. This is in the top drop down list.
Click OK. You will now see the number of trades at the bid and ask if viewing the bid/ask Footprint."

If we know the number of trades at the bid/ask, does this constitute orderflow? Obviously we are missing the volume of the trades so can't judge the 'weight' of the trades at bid/ask.
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  #598  
Old Sep 24, 2009 8:29am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B View Post
Market Delta uses futures data. Unless you can get a spot feed, maybe thats what you are talking about.
Actually MarketDelta can take ANY feed from the relevant broker. They recommend Interactive Brokers for forex trading. So it not only uses futures, but stocks, indices and forex (given the relevant data).

Quote:
So yes, the number of trades IS orderflow.
Was actually a rhetorical question, but thanks for confirming.

Quote:
Remember, orderflow is the sum of buy trades and sell trades. The sum of those two is orderflow. If you have more buying then selling, the market is net long, if there is more selling, the market is net short. When the market is in one of these states, price must move so that dealers in the interbank can clear their books.... They don't like holding inventory positions because it exposes them to risk. So if they are net long, prices will be raised to induce selling to the commercial public. They then net their books to around zero inventory and...
You explained this already in this thread, but your reiteration is much appreciated.
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  #599  
Old Sep 24, 2009 8:33am
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Default Must be your browser

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lou View Post
The link opened to a blank page. Tried it a few times... same result.
Tried my posted link on different machines and browsers. Link works, however:

http://www.marketdelta.com/

Go to Support > knowledge base

Type forex in the search bar and the first hit "Can MarketDelta Be Used With Forex Markets, Statistics, or an Index? (287276)" is the article.

They also have some great videos explaining limit orders and market orders (which include stops). I know it has been explained here already, nevertheless.
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  #603  
Old Sep 24, 2009 9:26am
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Default Apologies

Quote:
Originally Posted by supremeChaos View Post
that is a link of an expired session; that is, Limstylz gave a link to the website during his particular visit to that website.
maybe he can direct us to which website that was. is it the one on this post? ok, thanks.
Yes sC, you are correct. I realised only after my other post with the 2nd link that this would be the case. My last post with the link to MarketDelta is the correct one.
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  #605  
Old Sep 24, 2009 9:37am
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Default

Quote:
I would be curious to know how they determine bids from asks with a spot feed. If they are simply using tick counts, it's probably not good enough, and I doubt they are doing anything other than that. But if you are plugged into futures data, which is highly transparent, you could get bidXask counts that were much more accurate.
For sure, however, they specifically mention this method of measuring bidxask. I presume that the feed from the broker is not an amalgamated mix of bid/ask into one tick chart, but separate bid and ask (similar to dukascopy). They do state that combined with their market profile charts this paints a pretty good picture.

Obviously one would need to check this for himself.

Quote:
I talked to a guy at a brokerage in Chicago a while back about the Market Delta fx futures feed and he said they get all relevent trade info down to individual buy and sell initiated trades.
Again, this would be dependant on broker.
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  #714  
Old Oct 3, 2009 9:11am
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Default The source for that article...

... appears to be here: http://www.lind-waldock.com/educatio...eature02.shtml

However, this doesn't really relate to forex does it? The only problem is getting access to FOREX orderflow, not necessarily how to read it.

You need to have it in your hand before you can use it.
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  #717  
Old Oct 3, 2009 9:57am
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Default Was not an attack

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fudomyo View Post
I was posting in 2 parts, so answered your question in my second post. You can get the orderflow information from an ECN broker or esignal. They both work.

Yes, this relates to Forex.

Fudomyo,

My post was a link to the source of your information as the jpg you posted is too pixilated (is that even a word?) to read.

Having missed the part about your posts being in 2 posts, I presumed you were only posting that article with no sources of where to get orderflow information, as many others have done so before you in this thread.

My apologies for jumping to conclusions.

Having purchased an esignal feed some time back for testing purposes, I can't see anything in it that relates to orderflow. I presume that as I purchased the most basic package which seems to be an aggregate of broker data, perhaps you would be so kind as to direct me (us) to which package of esignal we should look for.
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  #719  
Old Oct 3, 2009 10:30am
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fudomyo View Post
With esignal, the basic charting package doesn't include GTIS Forex or Forex Depth. these are add-ons.
I thought as much as. Will have to fork out some more funds for these then.

Quote:
...have been talking with esignal about which add ons I need. I will share my information with you when I have more...
Yes, please do share. I already have their basic charting package which is much 'cleaner' than my broker (Alpari UK) whom I only use to place trades. Seems a little easier to draw SR better with esignal, probably because of the cleaner data.

Thanks for your input this far...
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