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Behind Price-Orderflow
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Aug 28, 2009 3:13pm
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Originally Posted by pipmutt Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.
You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!
How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning  | Lol, quote of the day.
Have a good weekend Pip. | 
Aug 28, 2009 4:26pm
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Originally Posted by pipmutt You too, it's a long one so I guess they'll be some diy or gardening involved somewhere!
The question is should I use a roller or a brush.....  | But is the paint really there either way?!
Remember, there is no spoon
F1 from Spa this weekend plus Storage Pro pushed some good reading my way up above, not enough lager in the fridge though...
Last edited Aug 28, 2009 4:39pm
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Aug 29, 2009 6:46am
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Originally Posted by Scotty B We can crack this thing. | I respectfully disagree.
There is nothing to crack. There is no 'hidden secret'. It's traders trading, businesses transferring, multinationals hedging etc etc. It's not space invaders, it's a function of international business and aproaching it with a view or perspective that there's a super secret cabal of super traders will ultimatley frustrate you as it doesn't exist.
If you're making a consistant 5% a week you're doing great, why overcomplicate it?  | 
Aug 29, 2009 7:25am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt
As well as the participants you mentioned there are what I'd call 'strategic players'... | Hi Pip, in my mind, i covered those within the 'traders' group - those looking to profit from the market, as opposed to those using the market as an aspect of their wider business. | 
Aug 29, 2009 7:27am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt ...without actually thinking what's behind the analysis. In my opinion that leaves out a big chunk of information and is a major disadvantage.... | And that point is huge  | 
Aug 29, 2009 8:06am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt Yep I saw you'd lumped them together, I seperated them out for emphasis, sorry I didn't mean it to sound like you didn't know they existed but it's amazing the number of people who don't and think stop-hunting refers to some devious broker trick to get their money!
The discussion on order flow seems to be drying up in this thread, maybe there's less to be said about it than some people originally thought! | No apologies required. I am one for sweeping generalisations.  | 
Sep 1, 2009 5:28am
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Originally Posted by Bleek I'm finding this thread very much like sex, it's most enjoyable but I find myself requiring a cigarette after every page. | Lol.
Live chart attached for comments/thoughts.
Buyers have been liquidating their positions at 0.8450 for the last month and we're now approaching a significant level around 0.8330 where i would expect to see a cluster of buy orders.
Where's the smart play?
Addition: As a further thought/observation, buyers of sterling yesterday across most pairs seem to have taken their profit this morning, triggering a sell-off (which is good for me 
Last edited Sep 1, 2009 5:52am
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Sep 1, 2009 6:55am
| | Euro Live I have no interest in debating historical 'here's one i made earlier' charts, so...
Euro approaching 1.43. Again, i would 'expect' buys to be triggered at this level, but is that the smart play? Fundamental trend is up but i think there may be an opportunity to profit from the herd mentality here.
Again, comments and open discussion welcome/encouraged.  | 
Sep 1, 2009 7:19am
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Originally Posted by AstonDan Euro approaching 1.43. Again, i would 'expect' buys to be triggered at this level, but is that the smart play? Fundamental trend is up but i think there may be an opportunity to profit from the herd mentality here. Attachment 299626 | OK, follow up: Price paused just beyond 1.43/on the ascending trendline as you may reasonably expect. Is this a cluster of buy orders? Shorts taking profit? Are you looking to enter long?
I would expect triggered long order stops to be around the thick red line, so what would a manipulater do? Take them out for a better price long?
Apologies for the all the question marks, i'm not preaching but digging and i could be completely wrong (i often am)  | 
Sep 1, 2009 8:20am
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Originally Posted by Bleek
Annoyingly I just sat there and watched it for an hour.  | Lol, so did i, but i'm exposed to the Euro in the Yen cross so i didn't want to jump into this.
It behaved just as you would expect, however New York will be going to work shortly and i'll be interested to see what they do. I suspect they may want 'in' at a better price than where it is now. | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:09am
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Originally Posted by Bleek I was just using the CME Futures link on this thread.  | Bleek, are you watching Euro hammer back through 1.43  ?
Edit: Sorry everyone, i know that sounds like it should belong in Interactive Trading. All i am referring to is the chart i put up earlier and the levels i highlighted, particularly the thick red line. | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:16am
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Originally Posted by Bleek I went to the shop to come back to it.
... I think that's what they call stop gunning - lol! | LOL, i would agree. The important question is though, now those stops have been taken out and the cascade of liquidity has slowed, do you use the opportunity to go long at a discount? | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:31am
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Originally Posted by Bleek You'd think so.... if price stopped going down!  | Yeah, well it had slowed when i posted  | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:41am
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Originally Posted by hensch AstonDan,
I don't think that's the right frame of mind, so to say it. One thing is to find discount areas where long/short orders are being placed and another is to catch a falling knife.
The move is already in motion, now it's time to let it cool down and let them show their hands again.
However we have some interesting lessons to learn today with all that price bouncing (hint, hint, hint?)...
I still have to figure it out myself though... | Thanks Hensch. Just getting my head around it
Having said that, price has hit last weeks lows, so wouldn't that qualify as a discount area where you would expect a cluster of long orders to be placed? | 
Sep 1, 2009 12:02pm
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Originally Posted by hensch Just my opinion, but I think what we are trying to read here is how to ride on the market movers coat tails, not trying to predict what the may be doing.
So we still have to let the dust settle and discover the missing pieces of this puzzle.  | Apologies, my misunderstanding then.
If that is the case, then to be honest, i fail to see how this takes us any further beyond Price Action 101.
For me, the value on reading order flow is in being placed to front-run the orders which actually move the market.
I'll go and sit in the corner for now  | 
Sep 3, 2009 1:32pm
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Originally Posted by Skracor247 I finally got IT!!!!!! | Wash it in saltwater, you'll be alright  | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:17am
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Originally Posted by Bleek I wouldn't ever run without stops, running without a stop would imply that you're always right otherwise it's only a matter of time before you take some serious pain! | Putting my head on the block here but not necessarily Bleek.
It all depends on your perspective. | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:29am
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Originally Posted by Bleek ...but that would imply you would always need to be right. | Or how you manage being wrong? It depends on how close you are to the market IMO. Shorter term, yes, price can run away from you very quickly but longer term is a much slower and drawnout process which give you a greater opportunity to manage your drawdown more effectively and allow YOU to choose when you exit the trade and at what price.
Different strokes for different folks i suppose.
Nice chart by the way  | 
Sep 4, 2009 9:57am
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Originally Posted by AstonDan Lol.
Live chart attached for comments/thoughts.
Buyers have been liquidating their positions at 0.8450 for the last month and we're now approaching a significant level around 0.8330 where i would expect to see a cluster of buy orders.
Where's the smart play? Attachment 299571 | Remember this...simples  | 
Sep 4, 2009 10:12am
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Originally Posted by Limstylz I understand your chart from SR but not from this orderflow topic. Would you mind explaining your thoughts for me, please? | Sorry Limstylz, that post was a bit flippant (wasn't meant to be  ).
I honestly don't know if i can seperate the two topics - they seem entwined to me. Buyers liquidating at 0.845, therfore you could reasonably expect a clutch of orders short to be triggered. S/R? Orderflow? Whatever man, whatever
Trend is clearly up so you shouldn't expect much from the move, but look at it on a five minute chart and to me, the orderflow is obvious.
Maybe i'm confusing the topic, i'm a simple soul. | 
Sep 4, 2009 10:33am
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Originally Posted by Bleek I still can't differentiate from the original post and what I've been trading for months...  | So what does that tell you?
Oh and PeterFM  , big fan.
Last edited Sep 4, 2009 10:42am
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Sep 4, 2009 10:47am
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Originally Posted by Bleek ... I was doing it right all along?  | I would think so. A rose by any other name and all that jazz.
Learning is absolutley fantastic and to be encouraged, but if you've been making money all along, that's really all that matters, and if your trading like has been posted over recent charts then i'd summise you're already trading orderflow to a degree, albeit subconciously.
Take what i say with a pinch of salt though, it's Friday afternoon and i'm winding down  | 
Sep 4, 2009 11:12am
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Originally Posted by Limstylz I'm gearing my posts towards stop hunting (and its participation in and avoidance) and not simply orderflow.
In AstonDan's posted chart, the orderbook probably didn't have orders directly at the SR level but slightly under. Therefore the stop hunt that went on was just to those levels.
Reading simple SR is one facet of orderflow, I believe. The other is capitalising on both sides.
Just my opinion... | What do i know, Amazon recommended Trading for Dummies to me the other day. I had it shipped overnight  | 
Sep 4, 2009 11:41am
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Originally Posted by Limstylz I was agreeing with your chart analysis (after the fact). | Lol, fair enough. Ok, i'll play ball: No chart, foward planning, sterling swissy, 1.75 - where's the play? Or what's the play?
But whisper it incase Soros is lurking... | 
Sep 4, 2009 11:53am
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Originally Posted by PeterFM If I was trading this pair, this is where I'd be watching....
---------- | We're a hundred pips out Peter but on Sterling Swiss i don't think that's a great deal and on a weekly perspective, even less.
Either way i agree with you. It looks like a level with value for more sellers to come on board.
On short term basis (minutes) you could probably place sells and buys at 1.75 and scalp off 10 - 20 pips either way while the longs sell their positions, the shorts take up new positions and the manipulaters manipulate. | 
Sep 4, 2009 12:09pm
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Originally Posted by Limstylz
A blind guess...
| No worries Limstylz, but why make a 'blind' guess? I think the 'order flow' or witches brew or whatever its called is obvious on a chart, so why try and outsmart it by second guessing? Wasp said it better than me that there is so much information screaming at you/me/us on a simple chart...  | 
Sep 4, 2009 2:09pm
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Originally Posted by Limstylz I was completely wrong on Swissy. Well, I did say I was useless until I see the play happening... | Lol. I hate dollar swiss and i never trust the SNB. | 
Sep 5, 2009 12:07pm
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Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo I dont see how anyone in this thread could have done enough testing to be sure yet. | Only took some people three days Leon  | 
Sep 5, 2009 3:30pm
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Originally Posted by jpat1023 Jesus Christ...Can you not look at a chart and think in terms of order flow?
Candles are simply arbitrary points in time where we designate an 'open' and a 'close'...If the up thrust of the 'pinbar' was at the end of the candle and closed, then the next candle opened and went directly down. Are those two bars any different than a pin bar?
This thread is getting frustrating...I can't wait till Monday. (lol, won't hear that too often) | Slightly abrasive but i think this is the only post of this thread with any honest value and the one i most agree with...except the Monday thing | 
Sep 7, 2009 5:18am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt Bid at 0, what's to sell, it's a giveaway  | ODL quoted a friend like that on dollar cad around news one day. He bought, they wouldn't pay out! Lol |  | |
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