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  #386  
Old Sep 4, 2009 10:16am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default Simple is GOOD....

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
S/R? Orderflow? Whatever man, whatever

Maybe i'm confusing the topic, i'm a simple soul.
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  #393  
Old Sep 4, 2009 10:56am
PeterFM's Avatar
Suaviter in modo, fortiter in re
 
Member Since Apr 2006
Default And they say history never repeats itself....

Yeah, right! Two separate news days - two identical trades between the S/R lines I use in my trading.

That's roughly a 1% move (in currency terms) going from the higher band to the lower band. Shame I couldn't get to the computer to trade this one - assuming I had the b**ls to trade the news anyway.

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Last edited Sep 4, 2009 11:15am
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  #398  
Old Sep 4, 2009 11:46am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default

If I was trading this pair, this is where I'd be watching....

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  #403  
Old Sep 4, 2009 1:36pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default We're on the same wavelength....

Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan View Post
We're a hundred pips out Peter but on Sterling Swiss i don't think that's a great deal and on a weekly perspective, even less.

Either way i agree with you. It looks like a level with value for more sellers to come on board.

On short term basis (minutes) you could probably place sells and buys at 1.75 and scalp off 10 - 20 pips either way while the longs sell their positions, the shorts take up new positions and the manipulaters manipulate.
There is bound to be some sort of trading to be done between this level and 1.7600. It's just that I'm not really a scalper by instinct so tend to wait for something that clearly shows which direction I should trade.

So here are two views of the next Daily Close region which is a technique I tend to use as a guide on the pairs I do trade (EURUSD - GBPJPY) when dealing with range trading.

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  #461  
Old Sep 5, 2009 4:00pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default If you did what I did....

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 View Post
I would definitely disagree.
See above.

Yes.
Friday, Eur/Usd...if I have time later (and decide I want to) I'll go through my entire thought process...I went long at 1.4206 (with a limit order even) as price quickly left the obvious area of demand...where do you think I exited?
My Limit was a bit before yours (1.4217) and my exit was 1.4320. Close?
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  #498  
Old Sep 6, 2009 8:51am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default Especially if it's NFP day....

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 View Post
Nice. Your exit was even better than mine, I got out at 1.4305, no need to tempt the market trying to make perfect trades...although yours was pretty damn close. My risk appetite is usually rather small by the end of the week.
As the man said..'everyone gets what they want from the market' or something like that.
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  #503  
Old Sep 6, 2009 1:53pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default Right from the start this has intrigued me....

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpat1023 View Post
.....So the last seller to get in is usually the least informed as well?this seller doesn?t think about Who he is selling to nor Why they are buying from him at this time, he is simply following the herd.
Coming from a retail background, I've found it hard until recently to grasp this concept - If I Sell, someone has to Buy from me. Why would he Buy in a falling market?

Of course, being a small retail trader I failed to grasp any of this and simply traded the pictures on my screen - not worrying about the mechanics of it all. But still this niggled in the back of my mind.

In my business I buy XYZ from a wholesaler or manufacturer at ?10, mark it up and sell it for ?25. I'm done. I don't have to worry about whether the price of the item falls in two weeks time, I've sold it and I don't have to buy it back. If I sell the EUR at 1.4400 and it falls to 1.4200 before I buy it back I couldn't grasp why someone would buy it from me at the high or why someone else would sell it to me at low.

In the end I put it away in the 'don't need to know' box and went blindly on my way. As long as the equity curve pointed upwards I was happy.

This thread, and some other stuff I've picked up from various sources, have made me look at what I'm doing with fresh eyes. One comment that made me sit up and re-think the charts was a simple statement that '...buyers come into the market on down bars'.

Now I realise that statement, taken out the context of the article I read, means nothing but fits in with much of the sentiment that I've seen expressed in this thread.

Maybe when I'm trading standard lots () and know how to read L2 I'll already be slightly ahead of the game. Maybe not. Maybe I've got this all wrong. At least no-one has hit the thread with how we could be using MACD and a 5/8 MA crossover to judge order flow.
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  #517  
Old Sep 6, 2009 6:22pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default Order Flow for Dummies....

In trying to pick up on all the info posted here by the OP and other 'proper' traders, I'd like to ask a question from a bog-standard retail trader's point of view, if I may. Having read stuff from other sources and trying to come to terms with the OP's cryptic clues about getting in ahead of the herd the question I have is this.

As I understand it, a major order may have to be filled in stages due to the need to keep a level of secrecy or simply due to the available orders resting in the market. I have understood this to imply that major players often average in to their full position, correct me if I'm wrong.

If I'm right then this may mean that due to the size of this and other orders being placed into the market there is a possibilty of a reversal occuring before what would normally be seen as a key area.

At present I tend to place a limit order within an arbitary number of pips near to the level I have determined should represent S/R. This order will be a position size based on where I consider a reversal would have failed ie my stoploss.

In an effort to improve my front-running, would it seem more sensible to divide my position size into smaller lots and place them in steps leading to, say, a Support area? In the event of a reversal before my S/R level, which then proves not to be a fakeout, at least I'm in and can add in later if I see a sound opportunity.

Be gentle with me if I'm completely holding the shitty end of the stick but the responses to this question will guide me in the future.
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  #541  
Old Sep 8, 2009 5:25pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default Thanks for that....

I'll read it a few times, although I have the gist of it.

This is much the way I'm applying myself to these short-term charts now. It's been a long time since I looked at any chart below 4-hr and it does require a different approach.

I'm prone, at the moment, to set my limit (stop?) orders a little too soon but I'm getting a feel for how to read price movement in terms of the push and pull between buyers and sellers.

Fascinating stuff when you try and visualise who is doing what and where.
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  #547  
Old Sep 9, 2009 5:09am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by opie999 View Post
Ever get that weird deja vu sensation while reading a thread?

But none dare call it.....The Holy Grail!
I doubt any of us who have been around a while think this, or anything else, is the Holy Grail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt View Post
...Counter trend trading simply because price has made a substantial move in one direction isn't an edge, it's a gamble...
Agreed, but so is with-trend trading without the application of commonsense. All trading, using whichever method/system found here on on any other forum, becomes a gamble despite rigid rules, discipline yada, yada yada.....

This is my take on what I've found here. As usual, with one of my posts, it'll take a while but that's me.

The only 'edges' I've found over the years are:

(1) To only trade the trend. What trend, what timeframe? Those are the age-old questions. For me it's based on relatively short-term daily charts with a dip into 4- & 1-hr charts to find signals that might get me in earlier to grab a few extra pips.

(2) Support & Resistance. After 12 months solid of clean charts, I know there is nothing else I need, in terms of indicators, to maintain account growth.

So, what do I need this thread for? When I look at my charts (I only trade 2 pairs) it's become obvious that there are a lot of pips that I'm not trading whilst waiting for a retracement to where I deem the next most likely turning point is for a trend resumption.

I've always said that counter-trend trading is inherently risky but those comments are normally aimed at newbies who have yet to get a grasp on any aspect of the FX market. So, does that mean I consider myself beyond the newbie stage? No, but I've reached a point where I can assess a chart pretty well and I fully understand where any trade I take carries a higher degree of risk compared to others I take.

This thread has shown me how I could look at a chart and look for those moments when the movement of price might indicate a reasonable chance of trading against the trend. Most beginners don't even grasp the concept of a two-sided trade. They see rising bars and go long. Do they stop to consider that someone is selling to them and why? I doubt it, simply because I didn't in the early days and I'd class myself as a typical newbie back then.

In regard to S/R, I tend to use Limit orders at Support with stops well below the next major level (as I define it). If a retracement is deeper than I'd expected (but not enough to reach my stop) I'll hold. I have intermediate S/R levels that I assess that price must break before I'll consider my position dead. But this means I have equity tied up in drawdawn that could be used to expoit the retracement. So, in essence, I need to resolve two problems.

(1) Assess price movements around a Support area to see if buying strength is greater than selling strength and place either a limit order if I see the possibility of a 2nd retest of that Support area. If it does but not enough so the limit isn't picked up does the move up warrant a buy stop?

(2) When price arrives at what would normally be my target to close the trade, is price movement indicating that there are more pips on the table? If not I can close and either wait for signs that another retracement may be on the cards or that price is going to keep going up and I can look for a pull-back trade.

None of this is that much different to what I do now, all I want from this is the ability to keep from poorer entries at potential Buy levels (avoiding unnecessary locking-up of equity) and sensible assessment of when to stay in profitable trades when there is a chance of a move continuing in my favour.

If I can add in some extra pips when the charts are telling me that the buying is done and sentiment has changed enough to drive price back down a resonable distance, why not?

I know the risks, I can adjust my position size to suit and maybe, just maybe, I can break my iron-clad directional bias that limits me as a fully rounded trader.

Peace.
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Peter

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  #549  
Old Sep 9, 2009 6:12am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Member Since Apr 2006
Default Yes, I agree...

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt View Post
Sure, I'm not saying it isn't interesting and can't be useful at times, but it's just another discretionary tool.

...Neither of us will know which one was right until later which isn't much help really.
Discretion is key, I agree. I'm looking to see if this is another step in my development or something else that I'll have to discard as not suited to my mental approach to trading. If I find myself second-guessing the charts and it's costing me money then it'll go in the bin marked Redundant Tools. Mind you, it's getting cramped for space in there, so I might have to get a bigger bin.

Quote:
We can all look at a chart retrospectively and make our own philosophy fit for why price did what it did, everything works and everyone's an expert in hindsight

The core thing is that I have no access to L2 and I doubt I'd know what to do with it I did. In the end, I've always worked on the premise (which I read somewhere) of being happy to let someone else have the first & last 10% of a move and be happy to get the other 80%. Maybe all I'm looking for is where I can expect to find the outer limits of that 80%.
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Peter

This is my way of helping Newbies

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  #551  
Old Sep 9, 2009 7:09am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Member Since Apr 2006
Default The problem is....

Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt View Post
haha, it might be easier to have a box for the good stuff
Couldn't find anything! A few horizontal lines don't take up much space, do they?

Quote:
Mind you I've seen traders make some weird and wonderful stuff work for them, moon cycles is one that springs to mind!

What I think is interesting in my 'you buy/I sell' example is we both could have made money which dispels the theory that to win someone else has to lose, forex is just a never-ending revolving door of buyers and sellers. I guess that's another debate for another thread......
Let me know when you start it.
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Peter

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  #559  
Old Sep 21, 2009 3:46am
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar View Post
Not to be a stickler for accuracy, but this isn't orderflow trading.

And no, I won't tell you where to get a datafeed. Some things are better off not being shared.
I appreciate you taking the time to reply here. This is the answer I expected and all I need.
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Peter

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  #649  
Old Sep 26, 2009 4:26pm
PeterFM's Avatar
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Default

My apologies, Darkstar, for bringing you in here but the info is priceless.

Go in peace.
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