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Behind Price-Orderflow
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Aug 28, 2009 12:37pm
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Originally Posted by triphop Porkpie: "To think this will change the dynamics of the market is ridiculous."
Famous last words of the slew of news traders in Oanda a few years back Porkpie. Retailers acting in concert can and do affect the market you're trading in.
I didn't PM the OP, but I can see why some people might depending on where he goes with it. | When I first looked at the title of the thread and had a quick read, my initial reaction was..... 'Oh shit, what are you doing crack pot'. But on closer reading, it seems the OP is talking about mainly using chart info, which is basically doing what most threads here are already about.
You cannot (IMO) have any idea about large money motive's by chart-sniffing and new's trading, and News trading is a 1-2 pip game, atleast that is what my current level of knowledge leads me to beleive.
And yes, I also still beleive It is wrong judgement at best to shair an edge.
Hope your good trip.
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Aug 28, 2009 6:55pm
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Originally Posted by pipmutt Good question! Tarot cards and an ouija board probably.
You won't get an answer though because it's top secret super-sensitive information which can never be revealed to the general public for fear of the universal devastation it would cause, in fact it's so secret that even the people who know it don't know that they know it!
How a simple 2-horse race can be made so ridiculously complicated I'll never know, let's try something really difficult like deciding which side of bed to get out of in the morning  | Ive obviously not been blessed enough to be able to see the easy or simple part of learning how to trade profitably. Once you know how, the process of continuing to do the same thing may be easy, but I dont have the luxury of being able to say if it will or not(be easy) for certain.
At the end of the day, I want to be able to trade on a real world cause and effect that I am 80%+ sure will play out my way.... That Cannot (IMO) be done by pattern spotting.
By using a chart only you are following the past, trying to profit is like trying to drive your car to the sun or the donkey with the carrot/stick/string image.
You need to find outside input for your trading, you need a solid reason to beleive that someone out their comanding alot of money has a price in mind and an agenda.
Only the 1st para was directed to you pipmut, the rest is just general opinion-flow. Hope your well mate.
Leon
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Aug 30, 2009 2:30pm
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Originally Posted by Scotty B To ferrari...Look at how SK describes this..He puts on a stop to protect from bin laden and internet crashes. If he is telling the truth, the only probabilities you'd need be concerned about are those things unrelated to trading.
If the roulette wheel is only black, then what is the probability you will hit black? SK is portraying this thing as certainty.
Back at SK... to clarify sir, are you trading with certainty or probabilities as far as the trading and analysis alone are concerned, leaving terrorists and internet problems out of the equation?... | My opinion,
Certainty is a brave word.
If you are trading on material information that can only be interpreted in one way (when/if you understand the mechanics of it propperly), then you are trading with certainty with regards to your analysis. But you cant be certain that you will profit, all it takes is an extra pip change in price to turn a potential winner in to a loser.
If the OP trades with certainty that he will profit each and every trade, he might as well put the house on e&e time.
Like I said, cause and effect, solid rules, certainty in your own quality analysis. Thats as certain as your going to get.
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Aug 31, 2009 11:48am
| | [quote=Scotty B;3008527] Quote:
Originally Posted by Teiresias
I am enjoying it. It's been an enlightening last few days for old Scotty. No word from SK for a while. I hope he's feeling alright. Anybody out there with ideas on this, please by all means, chime in. I don't think it's rocket science type stuff, but like SK has said, UNDERSTANDING is one of the keys. Hard work and and a little brain power pays off. | The only feedback you will get on this subject is from people who know less than yourself, the OP is the exception{If he is going to continue with this thread}. Once you get in to this stuff your pretty much on your own as far as getting a trading method down, and rightly so, since were talking about money here.
Ive got to say that im suprised, I always skipped over your posts before because of my allergy to all things magical (fibs inc). But your coming across as very interested in all this and searching the net like a mad-man for info.
Good luck mate.
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Sep 1, 2009 7:49am
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Originally Posted by Porkpie Lol, thanks Lim. I thought we were both on the same level. Always learning.
The way I see it is that order flow is reflected in price. An imbalance of order flow shows buyers dominating sellers or vice versa. This shows up on a chart as true support/resistance. What usually happens is that some big traders get left behind at these levels and when price returns they are waiting at these levels to jump in where they missed out before. Also, as already discussed, sometimes large orders are broken down into smaller orders and triggered repeatedly... | 'Why' indicates knowing the reason something should happen, and the reason 'buying' or 'selling' isnt enough IMO.
'WHO', you need to work this out before you can find out why.
All IMO.
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Sep 1, 2009 8:14am
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Originally Posted by Porkpie As Merlin has already stated in another thread. Order flow is useless without the 'tape'. Reading orderflow without charts is possible if you can read the tape. Tape reflects orders being executed and charts show the history of the tape action. So you can use order flow without the charts but why use the tape if you can use a chart? | Love your signature...
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Sep 1, 2009 11:44am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt Who, do you mean who as in who is making price?
From memory Reuters 3000 Xtra had the 'who', mind you I don't know how extensive it was and you need to be a speed reader but I saw some household names flashing through. The fun part for me was watching quotes and spreads across one NFP, all I can say is wow, those people are nuts! | The 'who' depends on what kind of inefficiency you are trying to exploit. In some situations you only have two single oposing players to think about, sinse they have a massive interest in keeping the exchange rate wherever. Imo, this is a much easier task than trying to work out what effect thousands off different traders will have on the rate.
Something else to think about is the banks dealers who provide liquidity. Ever wonder why Institutions get better spreads than lone traders? Because financial Institutions are classed as Informed--- On the surface I guess your thinking, 'well why would that meen they get charged less?', well, by keeping Informed trader's on your books you are gaining valuable information. And the theory is that aggregate informed orders are a much better indicator of future price changes than one, it makes sense.
Now to link the above para in to what im saying: trading is a 1st in wins kinda game, assuming the move is favourable. Why would you think you can beat a bank at figuring out upcoming market moves caused by 1000's of traders? Remember that they have many Informed traders order info..... What do we have?
Interesting stuff.
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Sep 1, 2009 12:08pm
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Originally Posted by supremeChaos This involves FX Options.
1.44 is eur$ exchange rate (1.4406 is the high last Friday/late Thursday). it must have something to do with this.
13.5 level? i have no idea.
800mln is a value/amount in euros possibly involved in the transaction related to the barrier.
"barriers" can be literally looked at as barriers: something that hampers/prevents. in the above article, an Asian CB (Central Bank) has an interest for price (of eur$) not to touch &/or exceed 1.4450 (this Asian CB set up this 1.4450 barrier). every time price nears 1.4450, this... | 13.5 = the Implied volatility http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility
Theres a nice read for you.
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Sep 1, 2009 2:12pm
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Originally Posted by Scotty B Thanks for the encouragement mate. The picture was just a tease at those who KNOW. Don't read anything into it.
Scotty | Oh to be one of the ones that know. Problem is, some of us wont be capable of ever finding out. Wether capability lies on the sholders of drive or intelect is the question.
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Sep 2, 2009 7:25pm
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Originally Posted by yonnie he knows where price is going to go next. | Well, you would atleast hope he could attain a reasonable bias, if not 'know'. Otherwise what is he/are we doing here  .
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Sep 3, 2009 9:19am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt
Just imagine it for a second, 100% predictable price direction...... | Who's looking for this? lol. Good luck to them....
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Sep 3, 2009 9:39am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt I gotta be careful how I answer, you're a sarcasm demon!
I thought Scotty was after the "price can only go one way" solution.... | Im not sure exactly what scotty is looking for, but im pretty sure he doesnt think hes going to be able to predict all the market swings on the intraday level(or any other).
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Sep 5, 2009 11:26am
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Originally Posted by pipmutt at the end of the day there's absolutely nothing of any substance! | Maby or maby not, I havent read the whole thread to follow these guys chain of thought yet. Ill try and make the time to do so tomorrow.
But if I was them I would refrain from getting too excited untill they have some results to back up their theories. Too many time's when your trying to build a profitable system/method/outlook you jump the gun, think your there (for no good reason) and then fall flat on your face.
I dont see how anyone in this thread could have done enough testing to be sure yet.
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Sep 5, 2009 6:52pm
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Originally Posted by jpat1023 Wow, seriously? Your looking for posted 'results'? Nobody is talking about a 'profitable system/method'. The op of this thread's obvious intention was to help people actually understand how the market works......On page one of this thread someone said "I hoped I would never see a thread like this", he responded "It doesn't matter, you could spoon feed it to some people and they still wouldn't get it"......damn, he was spot on... | Listen,
Im not sure what the hell ive said your responding to, but let me try to make it clear to you.
I was saying that this thread has only been online for a week, and some of the members that have joined in on it are running round like they have 100% 'found something' ground breaking & market shaking. I was mearly pointing out that they should properly test their idea's within the frame of a system before they get so excited.
Clear?
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Sep 6, 2009 7:40pm
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Originally Posted by jpat1023 Ok, real quick before I really do leave.
Pull up a Eur/Usd H1 chart.
We can all agree that smart money moved price from 1.42 to 1.43 right?
Now, does it look like they unloaded that position at the end of the day Friday?
If not, do we think they will today? If they do, when will this happen? If they don't, what will price do?
None of this is trading advice, just some questions you might want to ask yourself...these are the questions I'm asking myself...I'm not going to pretend I know the answers, but I may have some idea based on previous... | Sorry, but this is all mumbo guess-work. Who's to say there wasnt jus average size bids sitting sub 1.42 and lack of sellers caused price to rally, you dont know if there was 'smart money' there. And even so, they could have unloaded the whole possition if there was a random buyer big enough sitting around on the way past 1.43.
Gotta agree with brethren Pipmutt here about the way this thread is going/has gone.
PS. You could be completely correct, just as the scenario ive explained could be. Thats the problem.
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Sep 21, 2009 11:16am
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Originally Posted by Darkstar Not to be a stickler for accuracy, but this isn't order flow trading. All your doing is commenting on market mechanics. There is no predictive value. IE- It's great that you understand the mechanics, but it isn't going to put any money in your pocket.
To trade order flow you need data from outside the chart. Level 2, a brokers order book, a service that gives you info about brokers order books, etc. There is a fuckton of money to be made from order flow trading if you know what your doing, but you need the data feed.
And no, I won't tell you... | Darkstar, I have been working on this for quite some time and am making gradual progress solely using certain Information contained in Oanda's free (when one has a live account) news application.
I am reasonably confident that what I am currently doing has predictive value although I need to increase my winning %, its the only way to get up there with the big boys.
My question is regarding what is needed to get a 'leg-up' to a greater source of information. Are you finding that Larger funds increase your bargaining power to gain access to other order flow info, or maby as a retail trader there is a glass ceiling in place? On the other hand, other Order information may be available from free sources, but I'm not holding my breath.
Thanks, Leon
Side note: It's good to know your still making money, maby we can trade one day 
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Last edited Sep 21, 2009 3:41pm
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Sep 27, 2009 11:27am
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Originally Posted by tdion I remember when you used to be looked at as just another member. | Everybody loves you when they want something.
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Sep 27, 2009 11:47am
| | Something that people on this thread need to consider is their ability to cope with a changing market. I'm pretty sure that darkstar came to his present understanding of the FX market through his own investigation, whatever that involved, and by doing so (if he is profitable) he has proven he has what it takes to learn how to trade all over again if he loses his edge.
Now, the people who have done very little work and a lot of asking questions; How long will a 'given' edge last you? Months or years?
What do you do once it no longer offers a positive expectancy? Considering you didn't have what it took to find the 1st edge....
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Sep 28, 2009 8:47pm
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Originally Posted by Marsh ...
Two of my biggest role models flat out contradicting each other. That says a lot about trading to me... |
For somebody who is trying to find their way it's so not funny that its actually quite hilarious.
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Jun 21, 2010 5:15pm
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Originally Posted by woo These are examples on how you can come to greater insight by having a generally high iq, but foremost, an exploring analytic mind. you can reach great insight and understand how things work
Happy trading guys. | Lol, you sound like a right wanker... but I don't actually mind reading what you write. Personally, I think 'IQ' is overvalued by many... If you gave an IQ test to a tribe living in the Amazon, they would probably score terribly... but do you expect me to believe that they're all extremely stupid?
Someone said "IQ is what is what is tested by IQ tests" and I'm inclined to agree with the quotes underlying meaning.
Regards, Leon
EDIT: PS. Ideally, cultural upbringing and such wouldn't effect intelligence, yet IQ tests would lead us to believe that it does. If culture effects IQ, then IQ isn't innate, and the whole idea of intelligence as measured by IQ tests is void.
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Jun 21, 2010 5:45pm
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Originally Posted by woo I agree with you that different cultural upbringing stimulates IQ.
The brain get used to thinking in abstract way. SOmething the brain can learn to do, and not something we are born with.
For someone who has never been exposed to solving problems, conducting a test would be alien to them. This would hamper the result.
However, every human is born with a max iq, where even if you study and expose yourself to problems, you wont gain much more iq.
Its the max potential that is interesting.
So cultures with low iq, obviously, dont reach... | The "every human born with a max IQ" hypothesis is a reasonable one... but as far as I'm aware there is no research to back it up. Couldn't it just be that those who cannot perform better on an IQ test are, at the time of taking the test, restricted by some self-limiting beliefs or not had the 'enlightening' experience which allows them to perform better.
I find this all interesting, because I thought I was stupid as a child, and my teachers thought the same about me. Now, my tutors think I'm in the top 5%, and I can see I am too. Had the changes in my life and aspirations not taken place in between, I'd still be the same: working crappy jobs, drinking 5 nights a week, and snorting cocaine on the weekends.
The area of 'intelligence' is too complicated for us to understand IMO. If one see's the need to be intelligent, then one becomes it, if not, then they don't.
Obviously they are those with obvious mental conditions who can't function to the level of most people... but I believe the majority of people never reach close to what they are capable of.
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Jun 21, 2010 5:54pm
| | Question: I've never had a proper IQ test, but I'm rubbish at chess... In your opinion does this mean I will have a Average/Low IQ?
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Jun 21, 2010 6:47pm
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Originally Posted by woo So drawing upon that it could mean any of the following:
lets assume you played average amounts of time:
1your iq is high,but your memory sucks
2your iq is not high, your memory is mediocre/bad
Number one is unlikely as higher iq usually correspond to better memory.
So given that you played lots of chess, but still suck, this likely tell that your iq is below the average of the average chess player.
But then again, i assume people attracted to a thinking man game like chess, may posses higher iq on average.
So I think your iq is lower... | I have been diagnosed with Dyslexia/poor working memory/low processing speed... so that probably goes a way to explaining my problems. I've just found some screen shots of IQ tests I have taken in the past at www.iqtest.dk and my average score is about 120... I wonder if the test is of the same type/quality as 'proper' IQ tests.
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Last edited Jun 21, 2010 7:05pm
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Jun 21, 2010 7:23pm
| | I'm the same as you, a bit bad working mem and process speedmory, my brain power is great. Which means, that if i get enough time to think, i can figure things out, which i suspect is your case as well. I have to agree with the 'time to think' statement... I do believe given the time I can get most things done to a higher quality than the majority of people.
I suspect bad brain speed makes for it by compensating and increasing ones brain power. so if you get enough time, you can use all your brain power. which einstein did since he just sat in his room thinking. It's certainly a possibility.
Thats good for us, as i think more brain power helps us in our quest of understanding the market and how to profit. Thats better than having mediocre brain power, and fast brain speed. Agreed. I'm generally a chilled out kind of person; I enjoy thinking, so I don't mind if it takes me a while.
and obviously, bad brain speed, will hamper your school results as it did for you and einstein, and me as well in my early years. But like einstein,you and me, we got smarter later on with our big brain power. ROLF at "our big brain power" lol. That sounds(looks) hilarious. On a serious note: As time goes on I've developed coping strategies and improved my exam and learning techniques so my results have improved drastically.
120 is really good. thats good for trading Thanks. Judging by your posts it seems like you've got some autistic (high functioning) traits (lack of social skills, no tact), and I can see you rubbing a lot of people up the wrong way... regardless, I do quite like you so have a vouch! If you're an idiot I'll take it away, but for our little entertaining conversation I think you deserve it! Regards, Leon
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