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  #116  
Old Aug 29, 2009 9:09am
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Originally Posted by auxesis View Post
When large orders come into the market and there are not enough counterparty orders to fill, price must go to the level where there?s enough to cover....
auxesis,

This is an addition to what you stated (bold marked by me).

MMers' moves are crystal clear. We don't have access to trading positions (OTC nature - even if we had it would be of small help) while they have.

I paint two possibilities:

1. Eur and GBP longs have not liquidated their positions. Mmers are not interested in keep buying Eur and GBP until the high levels are reached. Whatever is happening is to force them to opt out of longs. At the same time they are not dipping too much, (catch-22 situation) leaving not much profit scope for short sellers. Cresendo build up (gradual up and gradual down) is being faked by them to give a feeling that the market is not liquid. Actually, they are buying and selling to themselves and wear the longs off. How long they will do it? They have ample time, resources and experience to handle such situation.

2. While they are doing this, they have engineered short sale setup in Euro/GBP which should happen this week or may use FOMC as the trigger point.

Why I get this signal? MMers floated rumour in the market (rumour agency is IFR which instantly puts up a signal as well) a huge M&A deal in Euro/GBP is happening tempting everybody to take a ride to the high. 0.85 to 0.88 ride in 10 days with no letup. Even at 0.88 people are jumping on the train. Last Friday another rumour (courtsey IFR again) that the deal is off the card. So you find the first pullback on Friday. Highs are lower but lowers are high. Have they achieved their object of uninterrupted short selling peak time? This week will give some idea. Possibility is they might show it as a pullback rather than trend reversal and aim for 0.90. If longs have liquidated by Friday and taken their profit their strategy will change.

IFR signal says they will still go long aiming for 0.90 which means it was a pullback and they will wait for a better position to enter longs.

So longs at 0.88 will not be liquidated with buyers hoping for 0.90. New longs will join the train journey.

3. MMers have three switches - euro, gbp, jpy to regulate Eur/GBP. Whether they are using them for strategy 1, strategy 2 or both is unclear to me. We really have no idea about longs and shorts volumes. It would have given some kind of help to come to some conclusion but is no match to MMers machinations.
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  #639  
Old Sep 26, 2009 1:46pm
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Originally Posted by LuboLabo View Post
I found this image for data feed route's.
EBS is used mainly for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, and Reuters D2 is used for all other interbank currency pairs, mostly commonwealth pairs such as Australian dollar and British pound.
Both EBS and Currenex control more than 80% of orderflows and are owned by custodians of the market makers. You know the link now. This is a one-sided game.
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  #642  
Old Sep 26, 2009 2:58pm
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Originally Posted by Scotty B View Post
We've already brought up IFR Markets, is that what you are referring to? In all honesty, I really hope Darkstar and the others are not dependent on some service. What happens when this little man quits whispering secrets in your ears? Nothing good ever lasts, especially something like this, if it is infact what they rely on. Good traders have control of what they are doing, they are certainly not dependant on some service that could vanish tomorrow.

[b]I think that trading orderflow is a skill that starts with a thorough understanding of the...
I think that trading orderflow is a skill that starts with a thorough understanding of the market you trade in. Something that a person needs to develop. Thats why there are so few of these guys, nobodys interested in doing any homework.

For acquiring this skill, you have to believe in what George Douglas Taylor talked of as ever-lasting "Market Engineering" way back in 1945. You also have to believe that the Market Makers use GBPUSD as a pair to "manufacture" market sentiment in a matter of hours/days and this beast, which can move at a lightening speed of 300-450 pips in a day can change the market mood in a matter of 3-4 days. It provides good copy to media which hardly bothers to question its fundamentals for currency's such behaviour but takes delight in its rise and fall which happens almost every alternate week.

You also need to believe that NZD (cash-producing cow) can move up or down for months in a row with very few retracements.

You have to keep aside all your tools of TA and and instead focus on studying the market patterns for one full year. Study the market patterns (chart watching) and just do demo trading to acquire those skills. If you do live trades (unless they are not a drag on your savings) it will create pressure and you will lose focus.

After doing one year's focussed home work on opening hours, closing hours of each session, week, month, quarter, year, you will start making something out of the way huge pip balls are kicked up and down in a matter of seconds, and grounded in dreadful way for hours/days together that you can hardly make 5 pips during that period, pumping and dumping, buying and selling circular trades (same voodo technique the Governments are doing now - supplying money to the banks and buying back from them later - to perk up the economy) and many other age-old insider trading techniques of using Might is Right.

Go live after this hard work and who knows, you may end up being another Crabel and build an empire and sell a book of stock market patterns for $1000.

http://crabel.com/company/history.htm

Wish you - the hard worker - all the best.
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  #680  
Old Sep 29, 2009 5:09am
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This is not so.

I have worked with the best banking and proprietary software there is in the market. The latest obvious choice for bankers are ECN's - but not all use them. The 'ladder' does exist but unlike level II data in the stock market, there are no names on the FX ladder since the markets participation is anonymous, which means your own electronic contribution as a bank (JP Morgan, DB, UBS, Barclays to name just a few of the around 50 strong base contributors of the ECN community) shows up amongst other orders which have been entered electronically by market makers and position takers - you cannot distinct between them in the first place.

The next point is that retail orders come into the ECN as a bulk, and by the same token cannot be identified as 'retail' stop orders. Further orders include 'time slice' order types that feed chunks into the system on a periodic predetermined intervall for the purpose of not moving the market in one direction with a large order. Iceberg order are also part of the ladder by which a contributor hides the total extend of an order to the system, because showing would set of the automatic withdrawal of the imminent counter-orders and drive the price against the desired direction.

Most of this takes place in an automated fashion and unlike assumed in the thread where the so called big dogs sit in front of a screen looking where a bunch of inconsequential retail traders may have placed a miniscule stop order here and there.

Algorithms take care of a lot of spikes caused by 'liquidity-seeking' programs inside the ECN - all this happens on a speed scale which the physical trader is incapable of.

Then there are the corporate orders coming from actual real business interests like Siemens is building a new nuclear power station or funding a dam somewhere - these transactions come into the market each and every day from leftfield without warning and they come in size.

Rest assured, people everywhere cook with water - the only real difference is speed and size of execution that separates the institutional from the retail crowd - and very often a bunch of excellent programmers who work on short-term solutions - otherwise its trading based on trends, high's, low's and S&R as usual.

regards
daytrading[/quote]

DAYTRADING

Thank you for taking us into the real world of fx trading.

You talked of corporate orders.

Could you please enlighten us on :

How do hedge fund managers operate in currency markets?

As well as central banks and sovereign funds?

How are the orders from them placed - are the levels given? And to whom? Is it to the large banks of the country if the order is from a central bank or country sovereign fund?

Or is it directly to the market makers in Frankfurt, London, Tokyo or US?

If levels are given how do the market makers or "clearers" as hey are called go about achieving those levels specified by their buyers?

Will appreciate if you could enlighten us on this aspect.

Is there any fxjargon accessible on the internet which can give more idea of about who clearers or real money or maket makers are?

PJ
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