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Behind Price-Orderflow
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Aug 28, 2009 5:21am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx @pip.
no not tight pip,but close lol 
cheers | Hi Steve, thanks for an interesting thread.
I take it you're making considerable money (and I mean a lot) from the markets, after all you 'get this'?
I use a scalping system that works on price action to take 20-30 pips each day, I don't use any tools, just plot what I see.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 6:46am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by skfx Hi Bleek,
Price action is half the equation the other half you cannot see. The trouble for most is that the half you cannot see is the half you wish you could.
You will need a very very good understanding of the market to see what many cannot.
Once you attain this understanding,finding edges won't be your problem,your problem will be having too many to use.
I see now looking back why most traders don't even have a hope.
I say that but here's the deal: DON'T EVER QUIT!!!.
Keep your head down Bleek and keep learning.
That's what life... | Perhaps we're not as far off each other as you may think?
I had one of those 'hallelujah' moments a few weeks back, I was trying the usual SR trades etc etc but then I saw something between the lines, I saw a heartbeat in the market and the path, shape, journey it took. I change my WHOLE trading strategy. In truth my process is now VERY simple and so far, profitable and accurate to within a pip or two.
I can see the trends, but I don't follow them (sheep), I can see the expected break-outs prior to congestion but don't play them (big players running stops) as I can appreciate what the 'big money' is trying to do. I wait for powerful moves, let the dust settle, then I'm back in trimming the congestion - I don't just trade the very outer edges either.
Interesting thread for sure.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 6:53am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | My edge is that I take the counter approach that most would scratch their heads at.
I don't look for these big moves because I don't have the arsenal to hunt the big guys, I'm trading the areas of market fluctuations, the folly, the areas that most would just see as volatile and 'noise'.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 8:42am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | I've just taken another 22 pips today, 109 this week (target ~20 daily).
Like I said before, I know (I can see) where other traders are and what they're expecting, but I ignore those areas for my own safety and sanity. Am I wrong in what I'm doing, depriving myself of the 'big game' and the bigger moves?
I think my trading style is outside of the box, perhaps a little on the edge, but definitely looking in and not out!
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 8:50am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari Wow, amazing someone came out with this thread. Skfx, I salute you Sir. I know the feeling you have inside you... That would explain the emails you got, other people have this quality inside them aswell. I have it too...
So Skfx, please don't shy away from sharing your knowledge, sharing opens the doors of abundance. | If you have 'it' inside you, why aren't you sharing this information that you expect from others?
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 8:53am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari The problem lies in part lies with the complete lack of proper education in this business, or you could say the knowledge of the reality of the market is lacking. | Over time I'm beginning to see that the issue is the education.
I won't single out and particular company or website, but most follow the same hard and fast rules about the technicals and the fundamentals, all I see is hundreds of companies making money from teaching the masses to become sheep, who relentlessly relinquish their capital.
Technology has empowered them.
I'm not conspiracy a theorist, this is just my take.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 10:24am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B So if you don't mind sharing, knowing what you know, what is a reasonable yearly net return? I think your answer will help put this particular edge in the right perspective.
Thanks so much,
Scotty B | Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkpie Sorry Scotty but I think this is totally irrelevant and unhelpful.
What will be next? If anyone asks for an EA  |
I think that's a fair assessment and reasonable to expect or at least ask for quantifiable evidence of the OP accuracy and success.
My week-on-week gains averaging 21% would seem rather large but then, I operate with a modest capital which I draw from every week.
I don't need to retain capital (my net gain) to further leverage my positions because as it stands my process is delivering more than acceptable returns.
Over time, I will steadily increase contract size and thus my capital, but for me there's no rush and without tempting fate as I'm quite young, time is on my side.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 10:52am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Porkpie With all due respect and I appreciate you wanting to count your pennies. But, the discussion here is not about a system. It is about understanding the underlying dynamics of the market. It is fundamentally wrong to this discussion to start talking about potential earnings. The information discussed can be used with any system you want as so far as the underlying dynamics of market structure which is supply and demand and the order flow that creates this movement becomes a priority in your decision making process. This discussion is not about how... | I understand it's not a system.
But you also have to appreciate that anyone could come on here and post cryptic clues, vague hints, glimmers of hope, and argue that not qualifying any of it is merely to defend their position and knowledge which then begs the question, why post in the first place?
I'm not trying to detract from the OP's posts or discourage anyone/anything here. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 11:23am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt It's simple, don't believe a word he says if you don't want to. | You could have stopped there as that too is a completely fair assessment. Quote:
Sheeesh, what's next, "post your live trades", geez | As above. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 11:38am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt I could, but I like a rant just as much as the next guy, and besides it's Friday and we've got another stupid bank holiday on Monday!  | Haha very true! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 1:12pm
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonlorenzo You cannot (IMO) have any idea about large money motive's by chart-sniffing and new's trading, and News trading is a 1-2 pip game, atleast that is what my current level of knowledge leads me to beleive. | How else would a retail trader go about it?
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 3:17pm
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Knowledge is certainly empowering, but it would seem the unfortunate side effect is to ridicule others.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 28, 2009 3:24pm
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by mrjtdude The more knowledge I possess the more bleek it becomes. | The knowledge becomes a pseudonym? Interesting.
Is that supposed to be some kind of snipe or sarcasm towards me?
Not so enlightening.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 29, 2009 6:29am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by FOREXflash Im getting closer and closer  ......I like the writing style of sfkx....
it is like some puzzle.....you need to combine this thread with some other dark "bold" members.....
As with everything in life,it's what you DON'T see that makes the difference.It's not the graphics on your chart,it's the WHITE SPACE on your chart.
You need to understand the WHITE SPACE and what's in it.
Understand this and it's game over. | Are you discussing specific timeframes here? I trade a 15m chart and to be honest these big moves can just 'come out of nowhere'.
Fortunately I've learnt from being burnt not to have all my cards on the table at once, in other words I have only a single Limit order in play even thought I know there a numerous other trades available.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Aug 29, 2009 6:45am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by LasVahGoose What are the choices? There are orders in it or there is nothing in it. | ... and a further problem, white space engulfs the current position both above and below price.
I can't understand what these guys are trying to get at, but I don't yet fully understand how they get there.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 5:20am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | I'm finding this thread very much like sex, it's most enjoyable but I find myself requiring a cigarette after every page. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 8:16am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan OK, follow up: Price paused just beyond 1.43/on the ascending trendline as you may reasonably expect. Is this a cluster of buy orders? Shorts taking profit? Are you looking to enter long?
I would expect triggered long order stops to be around the thick red line, so what would a manipulater do? Take them out for a better price long?
Apologies for the all the question marks, i'm not preaching but digging and i could be completely wrong (i often am) Attachment 299642 | I've just been watching this too.
I think it could be a perfect example of stop running, solid round number of 4300, punched through down to 4286, collected back at the round number and the market carries on up.
Annoyingly I just sat there and watched it for an hour. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 9:00am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | The Futures lvl2 numbers are very interesting, I've been watching them at round number support on the EURUSD.
Volume to the down side (Bids) keeps jumping up 20-30% pulling price down, it's as if 'they' are trying to get a good price for their efforts soaking up the offers.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 9:38am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by hensch Something else, skfx, has given us the white space hint several times.
What I gather is that he's referring to accumulation/distribution areas where you can clearly see price retained in a range. | Yeah that's the style on trade on 15m charts, there are clear range/accumulations and then moves to higher or lower levels where price continues to range. I've been trading conversely (some might say fighting it), I trade the ranges and noise!
I just placed a trade at 1.4292 long using the lvl2 info as guidance, my issue now is there are big news releases in 20 minutes... I don't generally like to keep trades open during those!
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 9:49am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Again, this Futures market depth is interesting.
I keep seeing buy orders pile on, as if someone with serious buying power is trying to stop the current push upwards. I also notice 1 pip away a large order keeps popping in and out of view (doubling volume), perhaps in an attempt to 'scare' off the bulls?
I'm going dizzy.
edit: my hunch was right, those big orders just got removed and bang the bulls ran ahead 10 pips! This is seriously interesting.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 9:53am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | EURUSD 4325, a resistance level by my account.
Bulls gunned in to this, carried forward 5 pips by what I believe would be stops, then retraced back 5 pips.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 9:58am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | It's very interesting to see market depth, it shows how shorting the market at a key level only helps to fuel the fire.
Sure that might be obvious to some but to see it play out, in numbers, in real-time is very interesting.
Orders are piling up on the opposing side of this trend line at 25 dragging price slowly but surely further north, only for the shorts to exhaust and price retreats. It's just like a battlefield, a war of attrition.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 10:28am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by debitel Which broker you use to let you see the lvl2? | I was just using the CME Futures link on this thread. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:12am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan Bleek, are you watching Euro hammer back through 1.43  ?
Edit: Sorry everyone, i know that sounds like it should belong in Interactive Trading. All i am referring to is the chart i put up earlier and the levels i highlighted, particularly the thick red line. | I went to the shop to come back to it.
... I think that's what they call stop gunning - lol!
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:28am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | You'd think so.... if price stopped going down! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 1, 2009 11:59am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by hensch Just my opinion, but I think what we are trying to read here is how to ride on the market movers coat tails, not trying to predict what the may be doing.
So we still have to let the dust settle and discover the missing pieces of this puzzle.  | Very true because I for one didn't see that massive drop coming.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 2, 2009 7:13am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Scotty B I sifted through the data for about 7 hours straight today toggeling back from orderflow data to my charts in the majors and was pleasantly surprised at what I was finding. This is about to get interesting guys. Hold on to your socks. | Thanks for your posts Scotty, I like the fact you're posting every thought it makes for interesting reading! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 5:07am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by capitalist88 Well since I'm not one of the mystical kung-fu cryptic thread kinds of posters... I'll just blurt out exactly what I see on those charts. If the big important FF "insider super duper secret holders" want to send me PMs telling me not to give it away, I guess they'll have to pound sand.
All three charts show annotations which pertain to a single price bar. Each bar does the following:
1. It opens at or near an area of consolidation which is a previously tested area of S/R.
2. Price then moves away from the open (obviously)... | Hi Scott,
I was looking at these characteristics in the original posts of this thread, but they still don't give us anything new, its just the same old TA probability.
That's why this thread and it's author has both questioned and confused me.
I look at the charts he posted, I think "I knew that", I then look at his cryptic clues and think... "well if I knew 'that', then what else am I missing?".
Tail chasing indeed.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 5:37am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | The more I look at the first page of charts, the more I aligned it with my own pure TA and the less I can see any difference?
They show:
- Support & Resistance Levels
- Price Action historical and present, how did/does price enter the level
- Pivots and congestion, how did price react at these levels
- Anticipation in price action going forward
The original post is asking us to think about who is on the other side and why price reacts the way it does, but it doesn't always work as anticipated.
For example stop running doesn't always occur, so the question is of entry, is it above or below, before or after the initial move etc?
And so if stop running doesn't occur that would suggest the particular level is a strong area of resistance and another bounce off in the future is probable. Right?
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 5:55am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | A chart describing the exact thing.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:10am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Limstylz Probably at this point, the best we can do (until we are privvy to either a major orderbook and/or other insider info) is just be aware that stop hunting is a possible outcome and take pipmutts suggestion of scaled in entries and wider stops (if you choose to use them). | I wouldn't ever run without stops, running without a stop would imply that you're always right otherwise it's only a matter of time before you take some serious pain!
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:23am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan Putting my head on the block here but not necessarily Bleek.
It all depends on your perspective. | ...but that would imply you would always need to be right. We only have to look at the charts to see the market run away in minutes on occasion, a false move with no stop in those areas would make for serious hits!
I can just about understand having a disaster stop 50+ pips away from entry as a just in case, but I still like to place 'correct' stops appropriate to the trade.
One thing I will say is since the start of this post I've been questioning everything, and by no means am I blaming anyone here, but because of this new found cynicism I've has less conviction about my trading and hence have placed less trades and made less money! I have Larry Harris's book sat here, perhaps now would be a good time to step away and start crunching through that? 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:34am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan Or how you manage being wrong? It depends on how close you are to the market IMO. Shorter term, yes, price can run away from you very quickly but longer term is a much slower and drawnout process which give you a greater opportunity to manage your drawdown more effectively and allow YOU to choose when you exit the trade and at what price.
Different strokes for different folks i suppose.
Nice chart by the way  | True, on a longer timeframe of say 4HR + you'd be looking to get in a price that offers good value and therefore expect the trade to run for much longer and so yes, stops after the initial entry would be more a case of catching a reversal or profit.
I went from trading larger timeframes down to 15m as it suited my style, but as I say in the above post it seems this thread has dented my mojo [baby]. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 6:40am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Limstylz I attach a chart for consideration.
It is EURUSD. To me it looks like a stophunt occurred to get the entity into a trade which subsequently went long from the lowest point for about 200 pips. | I'd agree. That does level very 'manufactured' doesn't it, keenly pummelling through the lower support where you'd 'expect' most traders to have a long a stop 10-30 pips away.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 10:28am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | I think that's the problem, separating the obvious from the no-so obvious - this topic is very much intertwined with the levels being posted but it asks we interpret them a little different?
I'm still not sure this topic is on the right path or ever was because I still can't differentiate from the original post and what I've been trading for months... I'm either overdoing things or looking in the wrong place... or both! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 10:43am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan So what does that tell you? | ... I was doing it right all along? 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 10:51am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by AstonDan I would think so. A rose by any other name and all that jazz.
Learning is absolutley fantastic and to be encouraged, but if you've been making money all along, that's really all that matters, and if your trading like has been posted over recent charts then i'd summise you're already trading orderflow to a degree, albeit subconciously.
Take what i say with a pinch of salt though, it's Friday afternoon and i'm winding down  | It's Friday already? Where did my bloody week just go! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 4, 2009 3:52pm
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Funny you should say that, I have been testing (in demo) counter Tech Indicator trades that go against the majority and it's proving very profitable - if I have time I'll write up an article on my antics.
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 6, 2009 11:53am
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferrari It is vital we align our market beliefs with the reality of the market. Our belief system is our trading method after all. | Your annotation of that chart sum up my exact belief of what was happening too. I'm glad I'm not going mad. 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" | 
Sep 6, 2009 3:27pm
|  | All your stops are belong to us | | | | My platform (GFT Dealbook360) offers 'market depth' level 2 trading, much like the TS Matrix.
I know it's likely just my own brokers retail orders but even so, I'm going to have a go at trading using it to see if it works - it might be a real headache though! 
__________________ "I made all my money by selling too soon" |  | |
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