Quote:
Originally Posted by opie999 Ever get that weird deja vu sensation while reading a thread?
But none dare call it.....The Holy Grail! |
I doubt any of us who have been around a while think this, or anything else, is the Holy Grail.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pipmutt ...Counter trend trading simply because price has made a substantial move in one direction isn't an edge, it's a gamble... |
Agreed, but so is with-trend trading without the application of commonsense. All trading, using whichever method/system found here on on any other forum, becomes a gamble despite rigid rules, discipline yada, yada yada.....
This is my take on what I've found here. As usual, with one of my posts, it'll take a while but that's me.
The only 'edges' I've found over the years are:
(1) To only trade the trend. What trend, what timeframe? Those are the age-old questions. For me it's based on relatively short-term daily charts with a dip into 4- & 1-hr charts to find signals that might get me in earlier to grab a few extra pips.
(2) Support & Resistance. After 12 months solid of clean charts, I know there is nothing else I need, in terms of indicators, to maintain account growth.
So, what do I need this thread for? When I look at my charts (I only trade 2 pairs) it's become obvious that there are a lot of pips that I'm not trading whilst waiting for a retracement to where I deem the next most likely turning point is for a trend resumption.
I've always said that counter-trend trading is inherently risky but those comments are normally aimed at newbies who have yet to get a grasp on any aspect of the FX market. So, does that mean I consider myself beyond the newbie stage? No, but I've reached a point where I can assess a chart pretty well and I fully understand where any trade I take carries a higher degree of risk compared to others I take.
This thread has shown me how I
could look at a chart and look for those moments when the movement of price might indicate a reasonable chance of trading against the trend. Most beginners don't even grasp the concept of a two-sided trade. They see rising bars and go long. Do they stop to consider that someone is selling to them and why? I doubt it, simply because I didn't in the early days and I'd class myself as a typical newbie back then.
In regard to S/R, I tend to use Limit orders at Support with stops well below the next major level (as I define it). If a retracement is deeper than I'd expected (but not enough to reach my stop) I'll hold. I have intermediate S/R levels that I assess that price must break before I'll consider my position dead. But this means I have equity tied up in drawdawn that could be used to expoit the retracement. So, in essence, I need to resolve two problems.
(1) Assess price movements around a Support area to see if buying strength is greater than selling strength and place either a limit order if I see the possibility of a 2nd retest of that Support area. If it does but not enough so the limit isn't picked up does the move up warrant a buy stop?
(2) When price arrives at what would normally be my target to close the trade, is price movement indicating that there are more pips on the table? If not I can close and either wait for signs that another retracement may be on the cards or that price is going to keep going up and I can look for a pull-back trade.
None of this is that much different to what I do now, all I want from this is the ability to keep from poorer entries at potential Buy levels (avoiding unnecessary locking-up of equity) and sensible assessment of when to stay in profitable trades when there is a chance of a move continuing in my favour.
If I can add in some extra pips when the charts are telling me that the buying is done and sentiment has changed enough to drive price back down a resonable distance, why not?
I know the risks, I can adjust my position size to suit and maybe, just maybe, I can break my iron-clad directional bias that limits me as a fully rounded trader.
Peace.
