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  #407  
Old Jan 23, 2011 7:43pm
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Originally Posted by seagreen View Post
@ DS: In order to "deconstruct the logic of participants" you need to know the actions of these participants. Where do you get that info from? IFR?
IFR, experience, game theory, market sentiment, news and likely responses to news outcomes... etc probably.
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  #410  
Old Jan 23, 2011 8:49pm
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Originally Posted by Adal View Post
But this is not because retail traders have a magical ability to trade in the wrong direction. Most of them trade randomly (that's why they are called noise traders in micro-structure books). What makes them losers is the fact that the part which traded in the right direction are quick to take the profits, but the other part waits for a retrace, hoping to avoid the loss. Thus winners exit quickly, while losers remain behind. Thus most of the time there are more losers than winners with active positions, but it's not the same losers and winners....
To find where they concentrate their positions one should just be able to look at Oanda's books since retail traders positions seem to correlate between brokers.

But the stops issue is different I would think because do retail traders have similar uncle points? From the data on community outlook it seems that there are drawdowns of 300+ pips so is that information really actionable?
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  #412  
Old Jan 23, 2011 8:55pm
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Originally Posted by UnnamedPlayr View Post
Hunters can only profit from weak hands in real markets.
Retail traders are the ultimate weak hands in a market... are they not? Usually undercapitalized... usually minimal if 0 experience in investments and trading... usually no formulated plan for trading... usually very little thought about risk.
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  #440  
Old Jan 24, 2011 4:34pm
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I believe the no chart thing isn't that big of a deal. I'm sure DS can see this stuff without a chart. But it's like the situation where I can also contact someone without using my computer to email them or phone to text them by sending snail mail. But if you have the easy reference of a price chart at your disposal might as well use it.
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