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Order Flow - Finding cluster of stops on chart
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Jan 13, 2011 8:41am
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Stops usually gather just outside areas of S/R and especially the longer and more often a particular level holds, and if the level is a round number it can attract more stops.
If you look at a rectangle range there will be stops at either end. This is the whole premise for playing breakouts for quick profit.
There is talk of option barriers and attackers vs defenders, but who its all subjective at the end of the day, you can never know for sure where the orders are.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 2:56pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | This is all a complicated way of describing breakouts and price action. You can never know about pending orders because you will never have that information. All you have is past price and a derivation of that, so that's all you have to go on.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 3:09pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Adal Some of us have more than just past price  | There is no order book, or centralised volume information. So not sure what you have but I would guess unless you work for a central bank or a huge IB then you have nothing that is exploitable.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 3:56pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Deevz And why would you need centralized information? Have you ever heard about a sample, the very basis of statistics?  | Not sure a particular retail broker's volume is significant against over a trillion a day from the other participants. But if it works for you then go for it.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 4:19pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Adal The same myth over and over again. That retail is peanuts, that it doesn't count in the great scheme of things.
The reality is that retail is big business these days. 5-10% by some reports. That would make it the third global player by volume, after DB, UBS and Barclays.
Here it's reported to be $118 bln daily, which confirms the 5-10% figure - http://forexmagnates.com/retail-fore...eptember-2010/
Of course, to be aware of such things would require someone to actually research stuff on the net, instead of acting... | Data from one retail broker != All retail broker data. Maybe you need to go back and read some of darkstars posts on market structure.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 4:53pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Adal How about data from the first three of them by volume, which incidentally make available such data? By some strange coincidence, the three data sets are very correlated. When traders go overboard buying USD/JPY on Oanda, they do the same on FXCM and on Dukas. What could explain such a strange thing? Maybe they all think the same? No, that couldn't be... Maybe you should read something about statistics and sampling in particular...
No offense to DS, but instead of reading posts about market structure from an unknown quantity, I prefer reading... | If you think 3 retail brokers data is a good sample of the over FX markets volume then I don't know what to say to you. Good luck with your trading.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 5:20pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Adal I'm not doing an FX census. All I need is an extra edge. 3 retail brokers is enough to know what retail traders are up to. Knowing how 10% of the market stands is valuable information.
Why does FXCM have such tough conditions for giving you access to minute level SSI client positioning information? Probably because it's useless...
Just wanted to point out that real order flow information is freely available, but instead of actually trying to do something with it, people bitch that it's not perfect and go back to useless S/R charts for predicting... | You are wasting your time, without paying large monthly fees you will never know enough order info in FX to be of any use, just trying to save you some time.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 5:50pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Ahh, this tired ass argument again... Let me rewrite your post so the assumptions your making are more obvious: Had you written your post like that you would have likely received a response pointing out why your assumptions are flawed. In the process, you would have grown more knowledgeable and avoided making your second deeply flawed post...
... | Firstly I never said the only way to trade order flow is by using order books etc, I think price action is a representation of order flow.
I don't think it's all stupid, to have knowledge of market structure and order flow dynamics I would say is only going to help your trading. I was simply questioning Adal when he said he had other non price information from retail brokers that would give him an edge. "Its read by deconstructing the logic processes of participants within the context of the execution limitations imposed by market microstructure."
I agree completely here, and that is why I was advising against looking at a few retail brokers data and trying extrapolate that to the whole market.
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Chris
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Jan 23, 2011 6:06pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Darkstar Fair enough. Sorry if I pounced on you. I just don't want the thread to devolve into another "this is all nonsense" argument. We had way too many of those with pipmongrel or whatever his name was... | No worries, I just scanned this thread quickly, I am going to have a good read as it is extremely interesting to me. Sorry for my glibness earlier.
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Chris
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Jan 24, 2011 9:02am
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | There are posts in this thread that have open my eyes more than years of reading about TA etc. I had read all the existing stuff on order flow before, but this thread takes is up a notch. Thanks to Darkstar, grkfx, Trixie whos posts I got the most from (only part way through though).
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Chris
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Jan 24, 2011 5:44pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Regarding the no charts thing, this is what I think you could do.
Watching IFR it reports a large DNT option barrier on Yen at 98.00, you look at price now and set a price alert when it get within 50 pips of 98.00.
A few hours later a dollar news event comes out and you watch a ticker of yen to see what happens following it for around 15 mins. This might give you information or not.
Later your alert goes off, you look at the ticker and watch it then make your play.
No charts needed.
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Chris
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Jan 24, 2011 6:08pm
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by relyt This is the only thing I can think that I didn't mention earlier. So if that is the case, then you would be completely reliant on IFR or some other news service to tell you where these areas of liquidity are, right? I could be missing something. | Yeah you would, but you are also reliant on your broker or internet company, while people are paying for IFR they will continue to offer a service IMHO.
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Chris
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Jan 25, 2011 4:49am
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by xXTrizzleXx Hey guys, I just wanted to add my input to these above quotes.
I believe that what Darkstar was alluding to is that you don`t necessarily need all of the information provided by a chart to trade in this manner, but that does not impact it`s ability to present information in a visually easy-to-glance-and-comprehend manner.
The chart is essentially a plot of price vs. time. If we can spot areas on the chart where price spends very little time, then these are possibly clues which can lead us to make informed guesses as to what the liquidity... | Excellent Post,
This is where my thinking is at, I actually placed a demo trade just looking at a empty chart with some round numbers plotted and traded based on thinking only about thee order flow, I went to bed and price missed my TP by 1 pip then reversed, not to bothered about that, but the fact I made the decision on thinking about order flow and price did as I thought. (this time, need a LOT more demoing before I come to any conclusions)
I have the problem of working full time during the London session so watching the ticker all day is not going to happen. I have forex tester and might try and backtest this stuff, if that's a viable option? Anyone?
Regarding charts ther are useful to get a quick picture of how price has recently moved and therefore saves staring at the ticker.
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Chris
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Jan 27, 2011 6:33am
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenhaze Darkstar made a small point about possibility of trading without chart and we have moved from vacum to non-chart theory religion, ALRIGHT!  | Exactly, focusing on the wrong thing. Without a chart how can you predict where TA's are going to place their stops?
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Chris
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Jan 28, 2011 5:38am
|  | Momentum and space. | | | | Analogy overload!!!! Analogy overload!!!!
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Chris
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